UNIT 5

CHAPTER 1

5.1 EXPERT SYSTEMS

An expert system is a computer program that represents and reasons with knowledge of some
specialist subject with a view to solving problems or giving advice.

To solve expert-level problems, expert systems will need efficient access to a substantial domain
knowledge base, and a reasoning mechanism to apply the knowledge to the problems they are
given. Usually they will also need to be able to explain, to the users who rely on them, how they
have reached their decisions.

They will generally build upon the ideas of knowledge representation, production rules, search,
and so on, that we have already covered.

Often we use an expert system shell which is an existing knowledge independent framework into
which domain knowledge can be inserted to produce a working expert system. We can thus
avoid having to program each new system from scratch.

5.2 Typical Tasks for Expert Systems

There are no fundamental limits on what problem domains an expert system can be built to deal
with. Some typical existing expert system tasks include:

1. The interpretation of data

Such as sonar data or geophysical measurements

2. Diagnosis of malfunctions

Such as equipment faults or human diseases

3. Structural analysis or configuration of complex objects

Such as chemical compounds or computer systems

4. Planning sequences of actions

Such as might be performed by robots

5. Predicting the future

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 Such as weather, share prices, exchange rates

However, these days, conventional computer systems can also do some of these things

5.3 Characteristics of Expert Systems

Expert systems can be distinguished from conventional computer systems in that:

1. They simulate human reasoning about the problem domain, rather than simulating the domain
itself.

2. They perform reasoning over representations of human knowledge, in addition to doing

numerical calculations or data retrieval. They have corresponding distinct modules referred to as
the inference engine and the knowledge base.

3. Problems tend to be solved using heuristics (rules of thumb) or approximate methods or

probabilistic methods which, unlike algorithmic solutions, are not guaranteed to result in a
correct or optimal solution.

4. They usually have to provide explanations and justifications of their solutions or

recommendations in order to convince the user that their reasoning is correct.

Note that the term Intelligent Knowledge Based System (IKBS) is sometimes used as a synonym
for Expert System.

5.3 The Architecture of Expert Systems

The process of building expert systems is often called knowledge engineering. The knowledge
engineer is involved with all components of an expert system:

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Building expert systems is generally an iterative process. The components and their interaction
will be refined over the course of numerous meetings of the knowledge engineer with the experts
and users. We shall look in turn at the various components.

5.3.1 Knowledge Acquisition

The knowledge acquisition component allows the expert to enter their knowledge or expertise
into the expert system, and to refine it later as and when required.

Historically, the knowledge engineer played a major role in this process, but automated systems
that allow the expert to interact directly with the system are becoming increasingly common.

The knowledge acquisition process is usually comprised of three principal stages:

1. Knowledge elicitation is the interaction between the expert and the knowledge
engineer/program to elicit the expert knowledge in some systematic way.

2. The knowledge thus obtained is usually stored in some form of human friendly intermediate
representation.

3. The intermediate representation of the knowledge is then compiled into an executable form
(e.g. production rules) that the inference engine can process.

In practice, much iteration through these three stages is usually required!

5.3.2 Knowledge Elicitation

The knowledge elicitation process itself usually consists of several stages:

1. Find as much as possible about the problem and domain from books, manuals, etc. In
particular, become familiar with any specialist terminology and jargon.

2. Try to characterize the types of reasoning and problem solving tasks that the system will be
required to perform.

3. Find an expert (or set of experts) that is willing to collaborate on the project. Sometimes
experts are frightened of being replaced by a computer system!

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4. Interview the expert (usually many times during the course of building the system). Find out
how they solve the problems your system will be expected to solve. Have them check and refine
your intermediate knowledge representation.

This is a time intensive process, and automated knowledge elicitation and machine learning
techniques are increasingly common modern alternatives.

5.3.3 Stages of Knowledge Acquisition

The iterative nature of the knowledge acquisition process can be represented in the following
diagram.

5.3.4 Levels of Knowledge Analysis

Knowledge identification: Use in depth interviews in which the knowledge engineer encourages
the expert to talk about how they do what they do. The knowledge engineer should understand
the domain well enough to know which objects and facts need talking about.

Knowledge conceptualization: Find the primitive concepts and conceptual relations of the
problem domain.
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Epistemological analysis: Uncover the structural properties of the conceptual knowledge, such
as taxonomic relations (classifications).

Logical analysis: Decide how to perform reasoning in the problem domain. This kind of
knowledge can be particularly hard to acquire.

Implementation analysis: Work out systematic procedures for implementing and testing the
system.

Capturing Tacit/Implicit Knowledge

One problem that knowledge engineers often encounter is that the human experts use
tacit/implicit knowledge (e.g. procedural knowledge) that is difficult to capture.

There are several useful techniques for acquiring this knowledge:

1. Protocol analysis: Tape-record the expert thinking aloud while performing their role and later
analyze this. Break down their protocol/account into the smallest atomic units of thought, and let
these become operators.

2. Participant observation: The knowledge engineer acquires tacit knowledge through practical
domain experience with the expert.

3. Machine induction: This is useful when the experts are able to supply examples of the results
of their decision making, even if they are unable to articulate the underlying knowledge or
reasoning process.

Which is/are best to use will generally depend on the problem domain and the expert.

5.3.5 Representing the Knowledge

We have already looked at various types of knowledge representation. In general, the knowledge
acquired from our expert will be formulated in two ways:

1. Intermediate representation a structured knowledge representation that the knowledge

engineer and expert can both work with efficiently.

2. Production system a formulation that the expert systems inference engine can process
efficiently.

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It is important to distinguish between:

1. Domain knowledge the experts knowledge which might be expressed in the form of rules,
general/default values, and so on.

2. Case knowledge specific facts/knowledge about particular cases, including any derived
knowledge about the particular cases.

The system will have the domain knowledge built in, and will have to integrate this with the
different case knowledge that will become available each time the system is used.

CHAPTER -2

5.4 Meta Knowledge

Knowledge about knowledge

Meta knowledge can be simply defined as knowledge about knowledge.

Meta knowledge is knowledge about the use and control of domain knowledge in an
expert system.

5.5 Roles in Expert System Development

Three fundamental roles in building expert systems are:

1. Expert - Successful ES systems depend on the experience and application of knowledge that
the people can bring to it during its development. Large systems generally require multiple
experts.

2. Knowledge engineer - The knowledge engineer has a dual task. This person should be able to
elicit knowledge from the expert, gradually gaining an understanding of an area of expertise.
Intelligence, tact, empathy, and proficiency in specific techniques of knowledge acquisition are
all required of a knowledge engineer. Knowledge-acquisition techniques include conducting
interviews with varying degrees of structure, protocol analysis, observation of experts at work,
and analysis of cases.

On the other hand, the knowledge engineer must also select a tool appropriate for the project and
use it to represent the knowledge with the application of the knowledge acquisition facility.

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3. User - A system developed by an end user with a simple shell, is built rather quickly an
inexpensively. Larger systems are built in an organized development effort. A prototype-oriented
iterative development strategy is commonly used. ESs lends themselves particularly well to
prototyping.

5.6 Typical Expert System

1. A problem-domain-specific knowledge base that stores the encoded knowledge to support one
problem domain such as diagnosing why a car won't start. In a rule-based expert system, the
knowledge base includes the if-then rules and additional specifications that control the course of
the interview.

2. An inference engine a set of rules for making deductions from the data and that implements
the reasoning mechanism and controls the interview process. The inference engine might be
generalized so that the same software is able to process many different knowledge bases.

3. The user interface requests information from the user and outputs intermediate and final
results. In some expert systems, input is acquired from additional sources such as data bases and
sensors.

An expert system shell consists of a generalized inference engine and user interface designed to
work with a knowledge base provided in a specified format. A shell often includes tools that help
with the design, development and testing of the knowledge base. With the shell approach, expert
systems representing many different problem domains may be developed and delivered with the
same software environment. .

There are special high level languages used to program expert systems egg PROLOG

The user interacts with the system through a user interface which may use menus, natural
language or any other style of interaction). Then an inference engine is used to reason with both
the expert knowledge (extracted from our friendly expert) and data specific to the particular
problem being solved. The expert knowledge will typically be in the form of a set of IF-THEN
rules. The case specific data includes both data provided by the user and partial conclusions

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(along with certainty measures) based on this data. In a simple forward chaining rule-based
system the case specific data will be the elements in working memory.

How an expert system works Car engine diagnosis

1. IF engine_getting_petrol

AND engine_turns_over

THEN problem_with_spark_plugs

2. IF NOT engine_turns_over

AND NOT lights_come_on

THEN problem_with_battery

3. IF NOT engine_turns_over

AND lights_come_on

THEN problem_with_starter

4. IF petrol_in_fuel_tank

THEN engine_getting_petrol

There are three possible problems with the car:

problem_with_spark_plugs,

problem_with_battery,

problem_with_starter.

The system will ask the user:

Is it true that there's petrol in the fuel tank?

Let's say that the answer is yes. This answer would be recorded, so that the user doesn't get
asked the same question again. Anyway, the system now has proved that the engine is getting
petrol, so now wants to find out if the engine turns over. As the system doesn't yet know
whether this is the case, and as there are no rules which conclude this, the user will be asked:

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 Is it true that the engine turns over?

Lets say this time the answer is no. There are no other rules which can be used to prove
``problem_with_spark_plugs'' so the system will conclude that this is not the solution to the
problem, and will consider the next hypothesis: problem_with_battery. It is true that the
engine does not turn over (the user has just said that), so all it has to prove is that the lights
don't come one. It will ask the user

Is it true that the lights come on?

Suppose the answer is no. It has now proved that the problem is with the battery. Some
systems might stop there, but usually there might be more than one solution, (e.g., more than
one fault with the car), or it will be uncertain which of various solutions is the right one. So
usually all hypotheses are considered. It will try to prove ``problem_with_starter'', but given
the existing data (the lights come on) the proof will fail, so the system will conclude that the
problem is with the battery. A complete interaction with our very simple system might be:

System: Is it true that there's petrol in the fuel tank?

User: Yes.

System: Is it true that the engine turns over?

User: No.

System Is it true that the lights come on?

User: No.

System: I conclude that there is a problem with battery.

Note that in general, solving problems using backward chaining involves searching through all
the possible ways of proving the hypothesis, systematically checking each of them.

Questions

1. ``Briefly describe the basic architecture of a typical expert system, mentioning the
function of each of the main components.''

2. ``A travel agent asks you to design an expert system to help people choose where to go
on holiday. Design a set of decisions to help you give advice on which holiday to take.

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Expert System Use

Expert systems are used in a variety of areas, and are still the most popular developmental
approach in the artificial intelligence world.

The table below depicts the percentage of expert systems being developed in particular areas:

Medical screening for cancer and brain tumours

Matching people to jobs

Training on oil rigs

Diagnosing faults in car engines

Legal advisory systems

Mineral prospecting

5.6.1 MYCIN

Tasks and Domain

Disease DIAGNOSIS and Therapy SELECTION

Advice for non-expert physicians with time considerations and incomplete evidence on:

Bacterial infections of the blood

Expanded to meningitis and other ailments

System Goals

Utility

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 Be useful, to attract assistance of experts

Demonstrate competence

Fulfill domain need (i.e. penicillin)

Flexibility

Domain is complex, variety of knowledge types

Medical knowledge rapidly evolves, must be easy to maintain K.B.

Interactive Dialogue

Provide coherent explanations (symbolic reasoning paradigm)

Allow for real-time K.B. updates by experts

Fast and Easy

Meet time constraints of the medical field

Architecture

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Consultation System

Performs Diagnosis and Therapy Selection

Control Structure reads Static DB (rules) and read/writes to Dynamic DB (patient,

context)

Linked to Explanations

Terminal interface to Physician

User-Friendly Features:

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 Users can request rephrasing of questions

Synonym dictionary allows latitude of user responses

User typos are automatically fixed

Questions are asked when more data is needed

If data cannot be provided, system ignores relevant rules

Goal-directed Backward-chaining Depth-first Tree Search

High-level Algorithm:

Determine if Patient has significant infection

Determine likely identity of significant organisms

Decide which drugs are potentially useful

Select best drug or coverage of drugs

Static Database

Rules

Meta-Rules

Templates

Rule Properties

Context Properties

Fed from Knowledge Acquisition System

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Production Rules

Represent Domain-specific Knowledge

Over 450 rules in MYCIN

Premise-Action (If-Then) Form:

<predicate function><object><attrib><value>

Each rule is completely modular, all relevant context is contained in the rule with
explicitly stated premises

MYCIN P.R. Assumptions

Not every domain can be represented, requires formalization (EMYCIN)

Only small number of simultaneous factors (more than 6 was thought to be unwieldy)

IF-THEN formalism is suitable for Expert Knowledge Acquisition and Explanation sub-
systems

Judgmental Knowledge

Inexact Reasoning with Certainty Factors (CF)

CF are not Probability!

Truth of a Hypothesis is measured by a sum of the CFs

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 Premises and Rules added together

Positive sum is confirming evidence

Negative sum is disconfirming evidence

Sub-goals

At any given time MYCIN is establishing the value of some parameter by sub-goaling

Unity Paths: a method to bypass sub-goals by following a path whose certainty is known
(CF==1) to make a definite conclusion

Wont search a sub-goal if it can be obtained from a user first (i.e. lab data)

Preview Mechanism

Interpreter reads rules before invoking them

Avoids unnecessary deductive work if the sub-goal has already been tested/determined

Ensures self-referencing sub-goals do not enter recursive infinite loops

Meta-Rules

Alternative to exhaustive invocation of all rules

Strategy rules to suggest an approach for a given sub-goal

Ordering rules to try first, effectively pruning the search tree

Creates a search-space with embedded information on which branch is best to take

High-order Meta-Rules (i.e. Meta-Rules for Meta-Rules)

Powerful, but used limitedly in practice

Impact to the Explanation System:

(+) Encode Knowledge formerly in the Control Structure

(-) Sometimes create murky explanations

Templates
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 The Production Rules are all based on Template structures

This aids Knowledge-base expansion, because the system can understand its own
representations

Templates are updated by the system when a new rule is entered

Dynamic Database

Patient Data

Laboratory Data

Context Tree

Built by Consultation System

Used by Explanation System

Context Tree

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Therapy Selection

Plan-Generate-and-Test Process

Therapy List Creation

Set of specific rules recommend treatments based on the probability (not CF) of
organism sensitivity

Probabilities based on laboratory data

One therapy rule for every organism

Assigning Item Numbers

Only hypothesis with organisms deemed significantly likely (CF) are

considered

Then the most likely (CF) identity of the organisms themselves are determined
and assigned an Item Number

Each item is assigned a probability of likelihood and probability of sensitivity to

drug

Final Selection based on:

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 Sensitivity

Contraindication Screening

Using the minimal number of drugs and maximizing the coverage of organisms

Experts can ask for alternate treatments

Therapy selection is repeated with previously recommended drugs removed from

the list

Explanation System

Provides reasoning why a conclusion has been made, or why a question is being asked

Q-A Module

Reasoning Status Checker

Uses a trace of the Production Rules for a basis, and the Context Tree, to provide context

Ignores Definitional Rules (CF == 1)

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 Two Modules

Q-A Module

Reasoning Status Checker

Q-A Module

Symbolic Production Rules are readable

Each <predicate function> has an associated translation pattern:

GRID (THE (2) ASSOCIATED WITH (1) IS KNOWN)

VAL (((2 1)))

PORTAL (THE PORTAL OF ENTRY OF *)

PATH-FLORA (LIST OF LIKELY PATHOGENS)

i.e. (GRID (VAL CNTXT PORTAL) PATH-FLORA) becomes:

The list of likely pathogens associated with the portal of entry of the organism is
known.

Reasoning Status Checker

Explanation is a tree traversal of the traced rules:

WHY moves up the tree

HOW moves down (possibly to untried areas)

Question is rephrased, and the rule being applied is explained with the translation patterns

Knowledge Acquisition System

Extends Static DB via Dialogue with Experts

Dialogue Driven by System

Requires minimal training for Experts

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 Allows for Incremental Competence, NOT an All-or-Nothing model

IF-THEN Symbolic logic was found to be easy for experts to learn, and required little
training by the MYCIN team

When faced with a rule, the expert must either except it or be forced to update it using the
education process

Education Process

1. Bug is uncovered, usually by Explanation process

2. Add/Modify rules using subset of English by experts

3. Integrating new knowledge into KB

Found to be difficult in practice, requires detection of contradictions, and complex

concepts become difficult to express

Results

Never implemented for routine clinical use

Shown to be competent by panels of experts, even in cases where experts themselves

disagreed on conclusions

Key Contributions:

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 Reuse of Production Rules (explanation, knowledge acquisition models)

Meta-Level Knowledge Use

5.6.2 DART

The Dynamic Analysis and Replanning Tool, commonly abbreviated to DART, is an artificial
intelligence program used by the U.S. military to optimize and schedule the transportation of
supplies or personnel and solve other logistical problems.

DART uses intelligent agents to aid decision support systems located at the U.S. Transportation
and European Commands. It integrates a set of intelligent data processing agents and database
management systems to give planners the ability to rapidly evaluate plans for logistical
feasibility. By automating evaluation of these processes DART decreases the cost and time
required to implement decisions.

DART achieved logistical solutions that surprised many military planners. Introduced in 1991,
DART had by 1995 offset the monetary equivalent of all funds DARPA had channeled into AI
research for the previous 30 years combined

Development and introduction

DARPA funded the MITRE Corporation and Carnegie Mellon University to analyze the
feasibility of several intelligent planning systems. In November 1989, a demonstration named
The Proud Eagle Exercise indicated many inadequacies and bottlenecks within military support
systems. In July, DART was previewed to the military by BBN Systems and Technologies and
the ISX Corporation (now part of Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories) in
conjunction with the United States Air Force Rome Laboratory. It was proposed in November
1990, with the military immediately demanding that a prototype be developed for testing. Eight
weeks later, a hasty but working prototype was introduced in 1991 to the USTRANSCOM at the
beginning of Operation Desert Storm during the Gulf War.

Impact

Directly following its launch, DART solved several logistical nightmares, saving the military
millions of dollars. Military planners were aware of the tremendous obstacles facing moving
military assets from bases in Europe to prepared bases in Saudi Arabia, in preparation for Desert
Storm. DART quickly proved its value by improving upon existing plans of the U.S. military.
What surprised many observers were DART's ability to adapt plans rapidly in a crisis
environment.

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DART's success led to the development of other military planning agents such as:

RDA - Resource Description and Access system

DRPI - Knowledge-Based Planning and Scheduling Initiative, a successor of DART

5.7 Expert Systems shells

Initially each expert system is build from scratch (LISP). Systems are constructed as a set of
declarative representations (mostly rules) combined with an interpreter for those representations.
It helps to separate the interpreter from domain-specific knowledge and to create a system that
could be used construct new expert system by adding new knowledge corresponding to the new
problem domain. The resulting interpreters are called shells. Example of shells is EMYCIN (for
Empty MYCIN derived from MYCIN).

Shells A shell is nothing but an expert system without knowledge base. A shell provides the
developers with knowledge acquisition, inference engine, user interface, and explanation facility.
For example, few shells are given below

Java Expert System Shell (JESS) that provides fully developed Java API for creating an
expert system.

Vidwan, a shell developed at the National Centre for Software Technology, Mumbai in
1993. It enables knowledge encoding in the form of IF-THEN rules.

Shells provide greater flexibility in representing knowledge and in reasoning than

MYCIN. They support rules, frames, truth maintenance systems and a variety of other reasoning
mechanisms.

Early expert system shells provide mechanisms for knowledge representation, reasoning
and explanation. Later these tools provide knowledge acquisition. Still expert system shells need
to integrate with other programs easily. Expert systems cannot operate in a vacuum. The shells
must provide an easy-to-use interface between an expert system written with the shell and
programming environment.

PART-A

1. What are the phases in Expert system development?

2. Explain identification phase.

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3. Explain conceptualization phase.

4. Explain formalization phase.

5. Explain implementation and testing phases.

6. Describe demonstration prototype.

7. Describe research prototype.

8. Describe field prototype.

9. What is meant by production prototype?

10. What is meant by commercial system?

11. When is Expert System Development Possible?

12. When is Expert System Development justified?

13. When is Expert System Development appropriate?

14. What are the questions to ask when selecting an Expert system tool?

15. What are the limitations of expert systems?

16. What are the problems the company faces when trying to apply expert system?

17. What are the common pitfalls in planning an expert system?

18. What are the pitfalls in dealing with the domain expert?

19. What are the pitfalls during the development process?

20. Where is expert system work being done?

21. What is meant by a commercial expert system?

22. Name any two expert system used in research?

23. Name any two expert system used in business?

24. Explain XCON?

25. Name any three universities and mention the expert system tools developed there?

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26. Name any three research organization and mention the expert system tools developed there?

27. What are expert systems?

28. What are the most important aspects of expert system?

29. What are the characteristics of expert system?

30. Sketch the general features of expert system?

31. Who are all involved in the expert system building?

32. Explain the role of domain expert?

33. Explain the role of knowledge engineer?

34. What is the use of expert system building tool?

35. Give the structure of an expert system?

36. Explain the knowledge acquisition process?

37. Define MYCIN.

38. Define DART.

PART-B

1. Explain the tasks involved in building expert system?

2. Explain the various stages of expert system development?

3. Explain the difficulties involved in developing an expert system?

4. What are common pitfalls in planning an expert system?

5. Explain the pitfalls in dealing with the domain expert?

6. Explain the pitfalls during the development process?

7. Explain expert system work at universities and research organizations?

8. Explain expert system work at knowledge engineering companies?

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9. What is meant by high performance expert system? How is it used in research and in business?

10. In detail Explain XCON?

11. Draw the schematic of expert system and explain.

12. Explain the following in detail.. a. MYCIN b. EMYCIN

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