JDY US Metric Version 7 10 Rule Spreadsheet
JDY US Metric Version 7 10 Rule Spreadsheet
My major change to the sheet is based on the fact that the 7/10 rule of fallout radiation decay is only
accurate after an initial period during which much of the very high level radiation/very short half life
elements are present and releasing massive amounts of radiation for about the first hour after the
detonation.
Also included are the calculated readings in SI units, in this case, Sieverts. The initial input is in
mR/hr because the spreadsheet was created with those measurement, but the spreadsheet has a
converter to change from R/hr to mR/hr, Sv/hr to mR/hr, mSv/hr to mR/hr, and Sv/hr to mR/hr to
provide the entry for the one hour after peak radiation reading that is entered to generatate the decay
rates and shelter stay times.
And even though it is likely that it will be well past the first hour after the detonation before fallout
arrives, if fallout is still coming down, or another cloud arrives from a different detonation and drops
more, an accurate decay rate, and thus the time-in-shelter projection cannot be made. Only after the
radiation has peaked and the number stops dropping, does the 10 times drop in radiation for every 7
fold time increase come into play. So, in order to have a consistant procedure to cover the majority of
fallout situations and timing, the reading that the 7/10 decay rate is based on is the one taken one
hour after the peak reading at ones location.
So the fallout radiation meters must be monitored for the arrival of fallout, and then, as the fallout
accumulates and rises, the readings recorded regularly until a peak is discerned and then, with
continued monitoring, the one hour after peak reading can be made. That is the number entered in
the spreadsheet in cell W5 on the calculation page.
Use whatever you can if you do not have dedicated supplies to protect you eyes, nose, and mouth
from radiation particles. It really pays off to have some form of EMP protected, or mechanical means
Use whatever you can if you do not have dedicated supplies to protect you eyes, nose, and mouth
(periscope), to be able to monitor the area outside the shelter without exposing oneself. And allow
from radiation particles. It really pays off to have some form of EMP protected, or mechanical means
time to decontaminate before going back inside the shelter. The last thing you want is to bring in
(periscope), to be able to monitor the area outside the shelter without exposing oneself. And allow
radioactive fallout particles into the shelter.
time to decontaminate before going back inside the shelter. The last thing you want is to bring in
radioactive fallout particles into the shelter.
When the radiation level has fallen to 5 R/hr or less, very quick trips outside the shelter can be
undertaken. Very quick trips.Protective gear use is mandatory, as is careful decontamination every
When the radiation level has fallen to 5 R/hr or less, very quick trips outside the shelter can be
time. As much as I hate to say it, and people will hate hearing it, these first earliest trips, and many of
undertaken. Very quick trips. Protective gear use is mandatory, as is careful decontamination every
the subsequent trips out until the radiation is down to acceptable levels, should be made by the oldest
of the shelter residents that are capable of doing the task that someone needs to go out and do.
The higher the radiation levels one is exposed to over even short times, the much higher the chance
of having cancer later on. It is much less likely for an already elderly person being around long
enough for the possible cancer to develop. The similar situation has to do with sterility. Elderly are
not likely to be having children later on. Younger people might. And the third rational is that the able
bodied are going to be exposed to radiation anyway, and even though it will be lower levels, they will
be out in it for longer periods to accomplish the tasks that must be done in the PAW. They will need
time. As much as I hate to say it, and people will hate hearing it, these first earliest trips, and many of
the subsequent trips out until the radiation is down to acceptable levels, should be made by the oldest
of the shelter residents that are capable of doing the task that someone needs to go out and do.
The higher the radiation levels one is exposed to over even short times, the much higher the chance
of having cancer later on. It is much less likely for an already elderly person being around long
enough for the possible cancer to develop. The similar situation has to do with sterility. Elderly are
not likely to be having children later on. Younger people might. And the third rational is that the able
bodied are
going to be exposed to radiation anyway, and even though it will be lower levels, they will be out in
it for longer periods to accomplish the tasks that must be done in the PAW. They will need all the
buffer time possible to give them the best chance to have as few radiation caused problems later as
possible.
With the danger associated with radiation, here are three more recommendations. 1. Even when the
level is 'safe' (under 104 mR/hr) continue to at least sleep in the shelter until the radiation gets a lot
lower. 2. Pregnant women do not go out at all until the level is well below 104mR and then only for
short periods, and she sleeps in the shelter, and if the shelter is suitable, spends most of her day there,
too. 3. Babies don't go out. Not until the radiation level is under 5mR. And then, if there is any dust,
or likelihood of dust in the air, they stay inside or have some time of filtering nose/mouth covering.
These are my recommendations and opinions. Please do due dilligence research on your own now,
before something happens.
Jerry D Young
April 27, 2014
The 'working parts' of the Fallout Radiation Decay spreadsheet page are hidden to avoid confusion
and distraction from the results. Anyone that wishes can un-protect the sheet as it is not password
protected, and un-hide the hidden columns and rows if you want to see the calculations that go into
this amazing work that Tired Old Man - Gary D Ott, created for the benefit of all preppers.
The International System of Units (SI) are now being used with all new Radiological Emergency Preparedness
information items, measurements, documentions, and calculations. The Spreadsheet has both the old US standard units as
well as the new SI metric units.
To convert a value from the "Customary System of Units" to SI units and vice versa, use the following directions:
Step 1: On the left side, find the unit you want to convert FROM.
Step 2: Find the factor in that line for the unit you want to convert TO.
Step 3: Multiply the original value by the factor, and the result will be the measure in the desired units.
Example: Say a package has 20 TBq of radioactive material. How many curies does this correspond to?
Answer:
Following Step 1, we immediately find 1 TBq = 27 Ci
Following Step 2, we find that the "factor" is 27 Ci
Following Step 3, we muliple 20 x 27 which = 540
Please read this information before using the Fallout Decay Calculator
http://www.nuclearpathways.org/Docs/pdfs/7906.pdf
http://www.nuclearpathways.org/Docs/pdfs/Effects.pdf
Also...
"Probably the most serious threat is cesium-137, a gamma emitter with a half-life of 30 years. It is a
major source of radiation in nuclear fallout, and since it parallels potassium chemistry, it is readily
taken into the blood of animals and men and may be incorporated into tissue. Other hazards are
strontium-90, an electron emitter with a half-life of 28 years, and iodine-131 with a half-life of only 8
days. Strontium-90 follows calcium chemistry, so that it is readily incorporated into the bones and
teeth, particularly of young children who have received milk from cows consuming contaminated
forage. Iodine-131 is a similar threat to infants and children because of its concentration in the
thyroid gland. In addition, there is plutonium-239, frequently used in nuclear explosives. A bone-
seeker like strontium-90, it may also become lodged in the lungs, where its intense local radiation
can cause cancer or other damage.
Plutonium-239 decays through emission of an alpha particle (helium nucleus) and has a half-life of
24,000 years. To the extent that hydrogen fusion contributes to the explosive force of a weapon, two
other radionuclides will be released: tritium (hydrogen-3), an electron emitter with a half-life of 12
years, and carbon-14, an electron emitter with a half-life of 5,730 years. Both are taken up through
the food cycle and readily incorporated in organic matter."
Instructions? Assuming you have to use it, the critical factors are windspeed/direction and elapsed
time since the detonation. That will allow you to speculate on the probable location of the detonation.
Assuming you have your peak level enter 3,000 in the level box and compare your peak level at the
elapsed time with the 3,000 setting. Adjust accordingly. When you 'match' your peak level and
continuing levels, you have the peak at the site of the detonation.
Radioactivity begins to decay when it's created, not when it arrives so the 7/10 rule is most accurate
when you know the level at detonation. Most times plan on a minimum of two weeks shelter time.
the 7/10 rule is based on raising 7 to various powers. 7 to the first=7, to the second=49, to the
third=343 and to the fourth=2,401...all in hours since detonation. The 10 part corresponds with the 7
part, to the first 0.1, to the second, 0.01, to the third 0.001 and to the fourth 0.0001 percentage
remaining of the initial level.
Mine is the simple version of the 7/10 rule. I got a very elaborate version at the Alpha Rubicon
website. It wants too much information, IMHO.
Column H shows the decayed radiation level under the seven/ten rule. It is 'safe' to leave shelter
when the level is 104mR or below. That translates into 2.5R per day and 300R in 120 days. However,
you can leave earlier for brief periods, if you must. The best bet is to stay in shelter when sleeping
until it's below 50mR.
Older people may not have enough lifespan left to need to worry about cancer and that's why Jerry
and I talk about older people going out first and pregnant women and children last. Healthy males
may experience temporary or long term sterilization unless they follow the same guidelines.
One final note, you can't just print it off because it's interactive and you have to enter numbers.
1. The denser and thicker the barrier substance, the better its shielding properties. Where every 3.6"
of earth cuts the incoming gamma radiation in half, thus doubling the PF, it would only take 2.4" of
concrete because it is even denser. Of course, earth is cheaper, but where concrete had been used in
the construction of a shelter it'll be providing even additional barrier protection. Also, the tenth-value
thickness, in inches, for steel is 3.3; for concrete, 11; for earth, 16; for water, 24; for wood, 38. That
means that where you have those thicknesses you'll have only 1/10th as much gamma radiation pass
through with that barrier material.
The denser and thicker the barrier substance, the better its shielding properties. Where every 3.6" of
earth cuts the incoming gamma radiation in half, thus doubling the PF, it would only take 2.4" of
concrete because it is even denser. Of course, earth is cheaper, but where concrete had been used in
the construction of a shelter it'll be providing even additional barrier protection. Also, the tenth-value
thickness, in inches, for steel is 3.3; for concrete, 11; for earth, 16; for water, 24; for wood, 38. That
means that where you have those thicknesses you'll have only 1/10th as much gamma radiation pass
through with that barrier material. Now we can calculate the protection factor of a foot of concrete
and 10 of earth. 120 16 = 7.5 so the protection factor is 107.5. A foot of concrete raises it to
108.6. 104 = 10,000. You dont even need that foot of concrete. 16 of earth = a PF of 10, 32 = a
PF of 100, 48 = a PF of 1,000 and 64 = a PF of 10,000. A normal slab of concrete for a patio
would double the Protection Factor.
Mild radiation sickness with headache and increased risk of infection due to disruption of immunity
cells. Temporary male sterility is possible.
12 Sv (100200 REM)
Light radiation poisoning, 10% fatality after 30 days. Typical symptoms include mild to moderate
nausea (50% probability at 2 Sv), with occasional vomiting, beginning 3 to 6 hours after irradiation
and lasting for up to one day. This is followed by a 10 to 14 day latent phase, after which light
symptoms like general illness and fatigue appear (50% probability at 2 Sv). The immune system is
depressed, with convalescence extended and increased risk of infection. Temporary male sterility is
common. Spontaneous abortion or stillbirth will occur in pregnant women.
23 Sv (200300 REM)
Severe radiation poisoning, 35% fatality after 30 days. Nausea is common (100% at 3 Sv), with 50%
risk of vomiting at 2.8 Sv. Symptoms onset at 1 to 6 hours after irradiation and last for 1 to 2 days.
After that, there is a 7 to 14 day latent phase, after which the following symptoms appear: loss of hair
all over the body (50% probability at 3 Sv), fatigue and general illness. There is a massive loss of
leukocytes (white blood cells), greatly increasing the risk of infection. Permanent female sterility is
possible. Convalescence takes one to several months.
34 Sv (300400 REM)
Severe radiation poisoning, 50% fatality after 30 days. Other symptoms are similar to the 23 Sv
dose, with uncontrollable bleeding in the mouth, under the skin and in the kidneys (50% probability
at 4 Sv) after the latent phase.
46 Sv (400600 REM)
Acute radiation poisoning, 60% fatality after 30 days. Fatality increases from 60% at 4.5 Sv to 90%
at 6 Sv (unless there is intense medical care). Symptoms start half an hour to two hours after
irradiation and last for up to 2 days. After that, there is a 7 to 14 day latent phase, after which
generally the same symptoms appear as with 3-4 Sv irradiation, with increased intensity. Female
sterility is common at this point. Convalescence takes several months to a year. The primary causes
of death (in general 2 to 12 weeks after irradiation) are infections and internal bleeding.
Acute radiation poisoning, near 100% fatality after 14 days. Survival depends on intense medical
care. Bone marrow is nearly or completely destroyed, so a bone marrow transplant is required.
Gastric and intestinal tissue are severely damaged. Symptoms start 15 to 30 minutes after irradiation
and last for up to 2 days. Subsequently, there is a 5 to 10 day latent phase, after which the person dies
of infection or internal bleeding. Recovery would take several years and probably would never be
complete.
Acute radiation poisoning, 100% fatality after 7 days. An exposure this high leads to spontaneous
symptoms after 5 to 30 minutes. After powerful fatigue and immediate nausea caused by direct
activation of chemical receptors in the brain by the irradiation, there is a period of several days of
comparative well-being, called the latent (or "walking ghost") phase. After that, cell death in the
gastric and intestinal tissue, causing massive diarrhea, intestinal bleeding and loss of water, leads to
water-electrolyte imbalance. Death sets in with delirium and coma due to breakdown of circulation.
Death is currently inevitable; the only treatment that can be offered is pain therapy.
Immediate disorientation and coma in seconds or minutes. Death occurs after a few hours by total
collapse of nervous system.
US military forces expect immediate death. A worker receiving 100 Sv (10,000 REM) in an accident
at Wood River, Rhode Island, USA on 24Jul64 survived for 49 hours after exposure, and an operator
receiving between 60 and 180 Sv (18,000 REM) to his upper body in an accident at Los Alamos,
New Mexico, USA on 30Dec58 survived for 36 hours.
The effects of a 1mT surface burst assuming a wind speed of 15mph, a wind direction of due east
and a time frame of 7 days are:
3,000 Rem
Distance: 30 miles
Much more than a lethal dose of radiation. Death can occur within hours of exposure. About 10
years will need to pass before levels of radioactivity in this area drop low enough to be considered
safe, by US peacetime standards.
900 Rem
Distance: 90 miles
300 Rem
Causes extensive internal damage, including harm to nerve cells and the cells that line the digestive
tract, and results in a loss of white blood cells. Temporary hair loss is another result.
90 Rem
Causes a temporary decrease in white blood cells, although there are no immediate harmful effects.
Two to three years will need to pass before radioactivity levels in this area drop low enough to be
considered safe, by US peacetime standards.
At the center lies a crater 200 feet deep and 1000 feet in diameter. The rim of this crater is 1,000 feet
wide and is composed of highly radioactive soil and debris. Nothing recognizable remains within
about 3,200 feet (0.6 miles) from the center, except, perhaps, the remains of some buildings'
foundations. At 1.7 miles, only some of the strongest buildings those made of reinforced, poured
concrete are still standing.Ninety-eight percent of the population in this area is dead.
5 psi
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5-psi rings. The walls of typical multi-story
buildings, including apartment buildings, have been completely blown out. The bare, structural
skeletons of more and more buildings rise above the debris as you approach the 5-psi ring. Single-
family residences within this area have been completely blown away only their foundations remain.
Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5-psi rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.
2 psi
Any single-family residences that have not been completely destroyed are heavily damaged. The
windows of office buildings have been blown away, as have some of their walls. The contents of
these buildings' upper floors, including the people who were working there, are scattered on the
street. A substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the population between
the 5 and 2-psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are injured.
1 psi
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained minimal damage.
Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1-psi rings are injured, mainly by flying
glass and debris. Many others have been injured from thermal radiation the heat generated by the
blast. The remaining seventy-five percent are unhurt.
"The individual dose rate of natural radiation the average inhabitant of Earth receives is about 2.2
mSv per year. That would be about 22mRem. If, for the sake of simplicity, we assume 1 mRem
equals 1 mR, the safe level of 104mR per hour is (4.7x8766) or ~41,400 times the peacetime level.
However, since pregnant women and children are more susceptible to radiation, we'll limit their
expose to 12 hours a day for the foreseeable future."
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