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PS1

This document provides instructions for Problem Set 1 which is due on February 11, 2016. It includes 6 problems related to applied probability and estimation. For each problem, students are asked to provide analytical solutions and write MATLAB code to simulate and verify the answers. Topics covered include probabilities involving defective parts, computer chips, metal casings, disease testing, dice sums, and reliability of systems with parallel and series components.

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117 views

PS1

This document provides instructions for Problem Set 1 which is due on February 11, 2016. It includes 6 problems related to applied probability and estimation. For each problem, students are asked to provide analytical solutions and write MATLAB code to simulate and verify the answers. Topics covered include probabilities involving defective parts, computer chips, metal casings, disease testing, dice sums, and reliability of systems with parallel and series components.

Uploaded by

samia
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Problem Set 1

ENGR 6043 Applied Probability and Estimation


College of Engineering
Arkansas State University
Due: February 11, 2016

1. Two manufacturing plants produce similar parts. Plant 1 produces 1000 parts, 100 of which are
defective. Plant 2 produces 2000 parts, 150 of which are defective. A part is selected at random
and found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from plant 1?
a. Work the problem analytically.
b. Write a MATLAB simulator to verify your answer.

2. A lot of 100 computer chips contains 20 that are defective. Two chips are selected at ran-
dom, without replacement, from the lot.
a. What is the probability that the first one is defective?
b. What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that the first one was
defective?
c. What is the probability that both are defective?
d. Implement a MATLAB simulator to verify your answers.

3. A company producing metal casings has three manufacturing plants producing 50, 30, and
20 percent of its product, respectively. Suppose that the probabilities that a casing manufactured
by these plants is defective are 0.02, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively.
a. If a casing is selected at random, what is the probability that it is defective?
b. If a casing selected at random is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was
manufactured by plant 2?
c. Implement a MATLAB simulator to verify your answers.

4. Consider a laboratory test to detect a disease. Let

A = {event that the tested person has the disease}


B = {event that the test result is positive}

and it is known that P (B|A) = 0.99, P (B|Ac ) = 0.005, and 0.1 percent of the population actually
has the disease. What is the probability that a person has the disease given that a test is positive?
a. Work the problem analytically.
b. Write a MATLAB simulator to verify your answer.

5. An experiment consists of observing the sum of the dice when two fair dice are thrown.
a. Find the probability that the sum is 7.
b. Find the probability that the sum is greater than 10.
c. Write a MATLAB script to simulate part (a) and validate your answer.
d. Write a MATLAB script to simulate part (b) and validate your answer.

1
6. Consider a typical problem of assessing the reliability of a system consisting of components
that can fail independently. Such a system can often be divided into subsystems, where each sub-
system consists in turn of several components that connect in series or parallel.
Let a subsystem consist of components 1, 2, . . . , m, and let pi be the probability that compo-
nent i is up or successful. The probability 1 pi is the probability that component i is down
or fails. A series subsystem succeeds if all of its components are up, so the probability of suc-
cess of the subsystem is P (series subsystem succeeds) = p1 p2 pm . A parallel subsystem suc-
ceeds if any one of its components succeeds, so the probability of success of the subsystem is
P (parallel subsystem succeeds) = 1 P (parallel subsystem fails) = 1 (1 p1 )(1 p2 ) (1 pm ).

a. A suspension bridge will fail if either of the two main cables fail. Would the two cables be
considered to be components in a series subsystem or a parallel subsystem?
b. A computer network connects two nodes A and B through intermediate nodes C, D, E, and
F . The probabilities associated with each connection are pAD = 0.75, pAC = 0.9, pCE = 0.8,
pCF = 0.95, pEB = 0.9, pF B = 0.85, and pDB = 0.95. What is the probability that there is a
connection between A and B?
c. Write a MATLAB simulator to verify your answer.

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