EVM & ES Data Input

AT EV AC ES BAC
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 Probability of Recovery Calculator
S Data Input
TAB PD TD Instructions for Use
Enter the EVM & ES (or ES(L)C
BAC, TAB, PD, and TD must be
TSPI > 1.10 S-Period ES% The current recovery probabil
displayed at the left. The anal
ES%cur ES%T S-Window

TCPI > 1.10 C-Period EV%

EV%cur EV%T C-Window

Unstable Period (0.0 - 0.2) 0.15

Interpreta
TSPI > 1 S-Per
The value of the 1st TSPI value > 1.10 after ES% 0.0 - 0.2 The performance period numb
ES%cur ES%
Current percent complete of planned duration (PD) Percent of PD for when TSPI =

TCPI > 1 C-Per

The value of the 1st TCPI value > 1.10 after EV% 0.0 - 0.2 The performance period numb
EV%cur EV%
Current percent complete of budget at completion (BAC) Percent of BAC for when TCPI

The project manager's objective is to have S-Window and C-Window showing "Likely." When "Likely" a
complete within the total duration (TD) and total allocated budget (TAB). When "Likely" is indicated, th
100%. Conversely, when the value for S- or C-Window is "Not Likely", the POR value will be low, appro
indication that additional funding and/or duration is required to achieve the project requirements.
Between the two extremes is the area where recovery is possible. When recovery is possible, the paire
used in the decision to take management action. The goal of recovery is to improve performance such

Notes:
1. The results for S- and C-Window and Probability -Schedule and -Cost will show as "Indeterminate" u
2. Applying Earned Schedule-Longest Path, i.e. using ES(L) C instead of ES, will yield significantly impro
reference the Example ES(L) Analysis sheet of the ES-LP calculator.
Calculator

nstructions for Use

nter the EVM & ES (or ES(L)C) data as they are known into the tan colored cells.
AC, TAB, PD, and TD must be entered with the first data entry. Enter a value in the range 0.0 - 0.2 for Unstable P
he current recovery probabilities are shown below with the period of opportunity windows computed and
isplayed at the left. The analysis of the computed results is discussed in the section, "Interpretation of Results."

Probability of Recovery

Probability-Schedule Probability-Cost

Interpretation of Results
S-Period ES%
he performance period number at which TSPI > 1 occurs Percent complete of the schedule when TSP
ES%T S-Window
ercent of PD for when TSPI = 1.10 using current SPI(t)c The portion of the PD in which there is oppo

C-Period EV%
he performance period number at which TCPI > 1 occurs Percent complete of the schedule when TCP
EV%T C-Window
ercent of BAC for when TCPI = 1.10 using current CPIc The portion of BAC in which there is opportu

ing "Likely." When "Likely" appears, the project is performing such that if current performance continues, it will
When "Likely" is indicated, the value displayed for Probability of Recovery (POR) will be very high, and often wil
POR value will be low, approaching 0.00. The combination of "Not Likely" and a very low value for POR is strong
he project requirements.
ecovery is possible, the paired values, S-Window with Probability-Schedule and C-Window with Probability-Cost,
o improve performance such that the project completes within the TD and TAB constraints.

ll show as "Indeterminate" until the project has progressed to the value entered for the Unstable Period.
, will yield significantly improved results for schedule performance analysis. For more information concerning ES
ange 0.0 - 0.2 for Unstable Period.
ndows computed and
"Interpretation of Results."

ES%
e of the schedule when TSPI > 1 occurs
S-Window
he PD in which there is opportunity to recover

EV%
e of the schedule when TCPI > 1 occurs
C-Window
AC in which there is opportunity to recover

rformance continues, it will

be very high, and often will equal
low value for POR is strong
ndow with Probability-Cost, are

the Unstable Period.

e information concerning ES(L) C,
 Probability of R
AT ES SPI(t)C SPI(t)P ln SPI(t)Cln SPI(t)P lnp^2 -2p*c
1 0.00
2 0.00
3 0.00
4 0.00
5 0.00
6 0.00
7 0.00
8 0.00
9 0.00
10 0.00
11 0.00
12 0.00
13 0.00
14 0.00
15 0.00
16 0.00
17 0.00
18 0.00
19 0.00
20 0.00
21 0.00
22 0.00
23 0.00
24 0.00
25 0.00
26 0.00
27 0.00
28 0.00
29 0.00
30 0.00
31 0.00
32 0.00
33 0.00
34 0.00
35 0.00
36 0.00
37 0.00
38 0.00
39 0.00
40 0.00
41 0.00
42 0.00
43 0.00
44 0.00
45 0.00
46 0.00
47 0.00
48 0.00
49 0.00
50 0.00
obability of Recovery - Schedule
i * lnc^2 Variation AFS M * AFS NumT DenomT
SPI(t)T ln SPI(t)T t-Score PRcv Current PRcv

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
PRcv - Sche
#N/A
#N/A 1.0
#N/A
0.8
#N/A
#N/A 0.6
#N/A Probability 0.4
#N/A
#N/A 0.2
#N/A 0.0
#N/A 0 5 10
#N/A
P
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A TSPI > 1.10
#N/A
#N/A EV%cur
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A Unstable Period (0.0 - 0.2)
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
 Count PRcv PD TD TD/PD TSPI
0 0 0

PRcv - Schedule
1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Periods

Period ES%

EV%T Window #Entries

0
#VALUE!

able Period (0.0 - 0.2) 0.15

>1.10 Yes # P-Cond
 Pro
AT EV AC CPI(t)C CPI(t)P ln CPI(t)C
1 $0 $0
2 $0 $0
3 $0 $0
4 $0 $0
5 $0 $0
6 $0 $0
7 $0 $0
8 $0 $0
9 $0 $0
10 $0 $0
11 $0 $0
12 $0 $0
13 $0 $0
14 $0 $0
15 $0 $0
16 $0 $0
17 $0 $0
18 $0 $0
19 $0 $0
20 $0 $0
21 $0 $0
22 $0 $0
23 $0 $0
24 $0 $0
25 $0 $0
26 $0 $0
27 $0 $0
28 $0 $0
29 $0 $0
30 $0 $0
31 $0 $0
32 $0 $0
33 $0 $0
34 $0 $0
35 $0 $0
36 $0 $0
37 $0 $0
38 $0 $0
39 $0 $0
40 $0 $0
41 $0 $0
42 $0 $0
43 $0 $0
44 $0 $0
45 $0 $0
46 $0 $0
47 $0 $0
48 $0 $0
49 $0 $0
50 $0 $0

From Input Data Sheet

BAC
TAB
TAB/BAC
 Probability of Recovery - Cost
ln CPI(t)P lnp^2 -2p*c i * lnc^2 Variation AFS
 M * AFC NumT DenomT CPI(t)T ln CPI(t)T t-Score PRcv

#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A 1.0
#N/A
0.8
#N/A
#N/A 0.6
#N/A Probability 0.4
#N/A
#N/A 0.2
#N/A 0.0
#N/A 0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
 Current PRcv Count PRcv BAC TAB
0 $0 $0

PRcv - Cost
1.0

0.8

0.6
Probability 0.4

0.2

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Periods

TCPI > 1.10 Period EV%

EV%cur EV%T Window #Entries

0
#VALUE!

Unstable Period (0.0 - 0.2) 0.15

 TAB/BAC TCPI >1.10 Yes # P-Cond

25 30
 EVM & ES Data Input
AT EV AC ES BAC
1 $928 $1,606 0.3 $38,140
2 $1,904 $2,766 0.6
3 $2,467 $4,324 0.8
4 $3,414 $6,138 1.2
5 $4,472 $7,888 1.6
6 $7,152 $9,835 2.7
7 $7,476 $10,135 2.8
8 $9,272 $13,217 3.6
9 $11,441 $14,755 4.7
10 $13,302 $16,656 5.6
11 $14,699 $18,768 7.3
12 $15,985 $20,897 8.0
13 $16,753 $23,364 8.4
14 $17,077 $23,664 8.6
15 $20,318 $26,651 10.2
16 $23,061 $28,437 11.4
17 $26,588 $30,408 13.8
18 $28,681 $32,012 15.0
19 $30,135 $34,000 15.6
20 $31,487 $35,554 16.2
21 $32,526 $37,111 16.7
22 $33,504 $38,468 17.2
23 $34,513 $39,798 17.8
24 $36,489 $41,155 18.9
25 $37,630 $42,600 19.7
26 $38,140 $43,983 21.0
ata Input
TAB PD TD
$38,140 21 21

Note: The graphs and probability of recovery

are computed having no reserves for cost or
or schedule. A suggestion to increase
familiarity with the calculator is to increase
TAB and TD, i.e. adding in reserves. The
effect of increasing reserves can be
observed. As well, reduce the number of
data input for EV, AC, and ES. The values
produced for Probability of Recovery are for
an intermediate status point.

Probabilit

Probability-Schedule
 Probability of Recovery

Probability-Schedule Probability-Cost

0.00% 0.00%