Interview Data
Interview Data
controls the supply of money, often targeting an inflation rate or interest rate to
ensure price stability and general trust in the currency.
The policy rate which is the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial
banks and is also used by banks to calculate their base rates was at 21 percent
prior to the increment.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced the new monetary policy lowering
the interest rate further by 25 basis points on Saturday. The central bank reduced
interest rate by 0.25 percent and brought it down to 5.75 percent .May 21, 2016
The Fed can use three tools to achieve its monetary policy goals: the discount
rate, reserve requirements, and open market operations. All three affect the amount
of funds in the banking system. The discount rate is the interest rate Reserve Banks
charge commercial banks for short-term loans.
Fiscal policy is the means by which a government adjusts its spending levels and
tax rates to monitor and influence a nation's economy. It is the sister strategy to
monetary policy through which a central bank influences a nation's money supply
Open market operations (OMO) refers to the buying and selling of government
securities in the open market in order to expand or contract the amount of money
in the banking system, facilitated by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Fiscal policy refers to nation's policy relating to the government spending, taxing,
borrowing and debt management. The main objectives of the fiscal policy are:
1. Mobilization of resources
2. Acceleration of the economic growth
3. To minimize the inequalities of Income and Wealth.
You are correct that "conscious fiscal policy" is the economy is always affected by
congressional actions even if it is past legislatures' decisions.
There are three main constituents of the fiscal policy, these are:
1. Taxation policy
2. Public Expenditure policy
3. Public debt policy
REGULATION OF LIQUIDITY
Being the Central Bank of the country, State Bank of Pakistan has been
entrusted with the responsibility to formulate and conduct monetary and credit
policy in a manner consistent with the Governments targets for growth and
inflation and the recommendations of the Monetary and Fiscal Policies Co-
ordination Board with respect to macro-economic policy objectives. The basic
objective underlying its functions is two-fold i.e. the maintenance of monetary
stability, thereby leading towards the stability in the domestic prices, as well
as the promotion of economic growth.
To regulate the volume and the direction of flow of credit to different uses and
sectors, the Bank makes use of both direct and indirect instruments of
monetary management. Until recently, the monetary and credit scenario was
characterised by acute segmentation of credit markets with all the attendant
distortions. Pakistan embarked upon a program of financial sector reforms in
the late 1980s. A number of fundamental changes have since been made in the
conduct of monetary management which essentially marked a departure from
administrative controls and quantitative restrictions to market-based monetary
management. A reserve money management programme has been developed.
In terms of the programme, the intermediate target of M2 would be achieved
by observing the desired path of reserve money - the operating target. While
use in now being made of such indirect instruments of control as cash reserve
ratio and liquidity ratio, the programs reliance is mainly on open market
operations.
The "Prudential Regulations" for banks, besides providing for credit and risk
exposure limits, prescribe guide lines relating to classification of short-term
and long-term loan facilities, set criteria for management, prohibit criminal
use of banking channels for the purpose of money laundering and other
unlawful activities, lay down rules for the payment of dividends, direct banks
to refrain from window dressing and prohibit them to extend fresh laon to
defaulters of old loans. The existing format of balance sheet and profit-and-
loss account has been changed to conform to international standards, ensuring
adequate transparency of operations. Revised capital requirements, envisaging
minimum paid up capital of Rs.500 million have been enforced. Effective
December,1997, every bank was required to maintain capital and
unencumbered general reserves equivalent to 8 per cent of its risk weighted
assets.
The "Rules of Business" for NBFIs became effective since the day NBFIs
came under State Banks jurisdiction. As from January, 1997, modarbas and
leasing companies, which are also specialized type of NBFIs, are being
regulated/supervised by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SECP),
rather than the State Bank of Pakistan.
Ever since its establishment, the State Bank of Pakistan, besides discharging
its traditional functions of regulating money and credit, has played an active
developmental role to promote the realisation of macro-economic goals. The
explicit recognition of the promotional role of the Central Bank evidently
stems from a desire to re-orientate all policies towards the goal of rapid
economic growth. Accordingly, the orthodox central banking functions have
been combined by the State Bank with a well-recognised developmental role.
Average annual CPI inflation declined to a 47 year low of 2.9 percent and real GDP
growth touched an 8-year high of 4.7 percent.
Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP also recorded steady increases.
According to the statement, efforts of Pakistans government to reduce budget deficit
remained on track as revenue collection continued to exceed expectations.
Private sector credit posted a considerable surge with accelerating loans for fixed
investment and working capital.
Discreetly evaluating the outlook of these improvements, SBP cut its policy rate by
a cumulative 75bps in FY16; over and above cut of 300bps in FY15.
Both external and domestic factors have contributed towards improvement of the
economy, the statement read.
Although increased demand for currency and at times government borrowing from
commercial banks kept the money market under pressure, effective injections to
keep the market sufficiently liquid by SBP has helped in a better transmission of
monetary policy.
This was visible in overnight repo rate, which on average remained closer to the
policy rate. Moreover, current lending rates together with the provision of liquidity
are supplementing the accelerating pace of private sector credit.
Planning for FY17
Going forward in FY17, factors affecting the outlook for external sector are broadly
similar to that of FY16.
Even with a slight increase in current account deficit, on account of expected higher
non-oil imports, positive growth in workers remittances are likely to keep it at
manageable levels.
At the same time, substantial bilateral and multilateral project loans related flows in
the financial account will help maintain an overall surplus in the balance of
payments.
However, the statement warned unexpected increase in oil prices may result in wider
trade deficit. Further deterioration in global trade due to slowdown in China may
accentuate this problem.
Furthermore, uncertainties about recovery in the EU in the post Brexit period can
have repercussions for financial inflows and trade to the country.
Pakistans economic growth is set to increase further in FY17. The impetus is likely
to come from the continuation of same positive factors as of FY16, which include:
(i) rising investment under PSDP and CPEC; (ii) improved energy availability to
industry; (iii) lagged impact of prudent monetary policy; (iv) healthy private sector
credit uptake; and (v) improving law and order situation. Adverse supply shocks,
continued declining trend in commodity prices, and any setback to security situation
may hamper the possibility of attaining the GDP growth target of 5.7 percent in
FY17.
The SBP statement also predicted GDP will grow in FY17.
Two intertwined factors are central in shaping up this possible scenario. First,
investments and activities related to PSDP and CPEC are going to gain full traction
which will be crucial in giving further boost to construction and allied industries,
large scale manufacturing, electricity generation and its impact on services sector,
and promoting an investment climate in the country.
Second, a successful end to the IMF program will bring the much-needed confidence
boost to Pakistan economy and the government which can further enhance the
growth prospects in FY17.
Monetary Policy Committee, after detailed deliberations, has decided to maintain
the policy rate at 5.75 percent, the statement concluded. SBP/SAMAA