Data Mining

Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques

Slides for Chapter 1 of Data Mining by I. H. Witten, E. Frank and
M. A. Hall
 Whats it all about?

Data vs information

Data mining and machine learning

Structural descriptions
Rules: classification and association
Decision trees

Datasets
Weather, contact lens, CPU performance, labor negotiation data,
soybean classification

Fielded applications
Ranking web pages, loan applications, screening images, load
forecasting, machine fault diagnosis, market basket analysis

Generalization as search

Data mining and ethics

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 2

 Data vs. information

Society produces huge amounts of data

Sources: business, science, medicine, economics,
geography, environment, sports,

Potentially valuable resource

Raw data is useless: need techniques to automatically

extract information from it
Data: recorded facts
Information: patterns underlying the data

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 3

 Information is crucial

Example 1: in vitro fertilization

Given: embryos described by 60 features
Problem: selection of embryos that will survive
Data: historical records of embryos and outcome

Example 2: cow culling

Given: cows described by 700 features
Problem: selection of cows that should be culled
Data: historical records and farmers decisions

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 4

 Data mining

Extracting
implicit,
previously unknown,
potentially useful
information from data

Needed: programs that detect patterns and regularities

in the data

Strong patterns good predictions

Problem 1: most patterns are not interesting
Problem 2: patterns may be inexact (or spurious)
Problem 3: data may be garbled or missing

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 5

 Machine learning techniques

Algorithms for acquiring structural descriptions from

examples

Structural descriptions represent patterns explicitly

Can be used to predict outcome in new situation
Can be used to understand and explain how prediction is
derived
(may be even more important)

Methods originate from artificial intelligence,

statistics, and research on databases

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 6

 Structural descriptions

Example: if-then rules
If tear production rate = reduced
then recommendation = none
Otherwise, if age = young and astigmatic = no
then recommendation = soft

Age Spectacle Astigmatism Tear production Recommended

prescription rate lenses

Young Myope No Reduced None

Young Hypermetrope No Normal Soft

Pre-presbyopic Hypermetrope No Reduced None

Presbyopic Myope Yes Normal Hard

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 7

 Can machines really learn?

Definitions of learning from dictionary:

To get knowledge of by study,
experience, or being taught
Difficult to measure
To become aware by information or
from observation
To commit to memory Trivial for computers
To be informed of, ascertain; to receive
instruction

Operational definition:
Things learn when they change their
behavior in a way that makes them perform
Does a slipper learn?
better in the future.

Does learning imply intention?

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 8
 The weather problem

Conditions for playing a certain game

Outlook Temperature Humidity Windy Play
Sunny Hot High False No
Sunny Hot High True No
Overcast Hot High False Yes
Rainy Mild Normal False Yes

If outlook = sunny and humidity = high then play = no

If outlook = rainy and windy = true then play = no
If outlook = overcast then play = yes
If humidity = normal then play = yes
If none of the above then play = yes

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 9

 Ross Quinlan

Machine learning researcher from 1970s

University of Sydney, Australia

1986 Induction of decision trees ML Journal
1993 C4.5: Programs for machine learning.
Morgan Kaufmann
199? Started

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 10

 Classification vs. association rules

Classification rule:
predicts value of a given attribute (the classification of an example)

If outlook = sunny and humidity = high

then play = no

Association rule:
predicts value of arbitrary attribute (or combination)

If temperature = cool then humidity = normal

If humidity = normal and windy = false
then play = yes
If outlook = sunny and play = no
then humidity = high
If windy = false and play = no
then outlook = sunny and humidity = high

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 11

 Weather data with mixed attributes

Some attributes have numeric values

Outlook Temperature Humidity Windy Play
Sunny 85 85 False No
Sunny 80 90 True No
Overcast 83 86 False Yes
Rainy 75 80 False Yes

If outlook = sunny and humidity > 83 then play = no

If outlook = rainy and windy = true then play = no
If outlook = overcast then play = yes
If humidity < 85 then play = yes
If none of the above then play = yes

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 12

 The contact lenses data
Age Spectacle prescription Astigmatism Tear production rate Recommended
lenses
Young Myope No Reduced None
Young Myope No Normal Soft
Young Myope Yes Reduced None
Young Myope Yes Normal Hard
Young Hypermetrope No Reduced None
Young Hypermetrope No Normal Soft
Young Hypermetrope Yes Reduced None
Young Hypermetrope Yes Normal hard
Pre-presbyopic Myope No Reduced None
Pre-presbyopic Myope No Normal Soft
Pre-presbyopic Myope Yes Reduced None
Pre-presbyopic Myope Yes Normal Hard
Pre-presbyopic Hypermetrope No Reduced None
Pre-presbyopic Hypermetrope No Normal Soft
Pre-presbyopic Hypermetrope Yes Reduced None
Pre-presbyopic Hypermetrope Yes Normal None
Presbyopic Myope No Reduced None
Presbyopic Myope No Normal None
Presbyopic Myope Yes Reduced None
Presbyopic Myope Yes Normal Hard
Presbyopic Hypermetrope No Reduced None
Presbyopic Hypermetrope No Normal Soft
Presbyopic Hypermetrope Yes Reduced None
Presbyopic Hypermetrope Yes Normal None
Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 13
 A complete and correct rule set
If tear production rate = reduced then recommendation = none
If age = young and astigmatic = no
and tear production rate = normal then recommendation = soft
If age = pre-presbyopic and astigmatic = no
and tear production rate = normal then recommendation = soft
If age = presbyopic and spectacle prescription = myope
and astigmatic = no then recommendation = none
If spectacle prescription = hypermetrope and astigmatic = no
and tear production rate = normal then recommendation = soft
If spectacle prescription = myope and astigmatic = yes
and tear production rate = normal then recommendation = hard
If age young and astigmatic = yes
and tear production rate = normal then recommendation = hard
If age = pre-presbyopic
and spectacle prescription = hypermetrope
and astigmatic = yes then recommendation = none
If age = presbyopic and spectacle prescription = hypermetrope
and astigmatic = yes then recommendation = none

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 14

A decision tree for this problem

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 15

 Classifying iris flowers

Sepal length Sepal width Petal length Petal width Type

1 5.1 3.5 1.4 0.2 Iris setosa
2 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.2 Iris setosa

51 7.0 3.2 4.7 1.4 Iris versicolor
52 6.4 3.2 4.5 1.5 Iris versicolor

101 6.3 3.3 6.0 2.5 Iris virginica
102 5.8 2.7 5.1 1.9 Iris virginica

If petal length < 2.45 then Iris setosa

If sepal width < 2.10 then Iris versicolor
...

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 16

 Predicting CPU performance

Example: 209 different computer configurations

Cycle time Main memory Cache Channels Performance
(ns) (Kb) (Kb)
MYCT MMIN MMAX CACH CHMIN CHMAX PRP
1 125 256 6000 256 16 128 198
2 29 8000 32000 32 8 32 269

208 480 512 8000 32 0 0 67
209 480 1000 4000 0 0 0 45

Linear regression function

PRP = -55.9 + 0.0489 MYCT + 0.0153 MMIN + 0.0056 MMAX

+ 0.6410 CACH - 0.2700 CHMIN + 1.480 CHMAX

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 17

 Data from labor negotiations

Attribute Type 1 2 3 40
Duration (Number of years) 1 2 3 2
Wage increase first year Percentage 2% 4% 4.3% 4.5
Wage increase second year Percentage ? 5% 4.4% 4.0
Wage increase third year Percentage ? ? ? ?
Cost of living adjustment {none,tcf,tc} none tcf ? none
Working hours per week (Number of hours) 28 35 38 40
Pension {none,ret-allw, empl-cntr} none ? ? ?
Standby pay Percentage ? 13% ? ?
Shift-work supplement Percentage ? 5% 4% 4
Education allowance {yes,no} yes ? ? ?
Statutory holidays (Number of days) 11 15 12 12
Vacation {below-avg,avg,gen} avg gen gen avg
Long-term disability assistance {yes,no} no ? ? yes
Dental plan contribution {none,half,full} none ? full full
Bereavement assistance {yes,no} no ? ? yes
Health plan contribution {none,half,full} none ? full half
Acceptability of contract {good,bad} bad good good good

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 Decision trees for the labor data

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 19

 Soybean classification
Attribute Number Sample value
of values
Environment Time of occurrence 7 July
Precipitation 3 Above normal

Seed Condition 2 Normal
Mold growth 2 Absent

Fruit Condition of fruit 4 Normal
pods
Fruit spots 5 ?
Leaf Condition 2 Abnormal
Leaf spot size 3 ?

Stem Condition 2 Abnormal
Stem lodging 2 Yes

Root Condition 3 Normal
Diagnosis 19 Diaporthe stem canker

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 The role of domain knowledge

If leaf condition is normal

and stem condition is abnormal
and stem cankers is below soil line
and canker lesion color is brown
then
diagnosis is rhizoctonia root rot

If leaf malformation is absent

and stem condition is abnormal
and stem cankers is below soil line
and canker lesion color is brown
then
diagnosis is rhizoctonia root rot

But in this domain, leaf condition is normal implies

leaf malformation is absent!
Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 21
 Fielded applications

The result of learningor the learning method itselfis

deployed in practical applications
Processing loan applications
Screening images for oil slicks
Electricity supply forecasting
Diagnosis of machine faults
Marketing and sales
Separating crude oil and natural gas
Reducing banding in rotogravure printing
Finding appropriate technicians for telephone faults
Scientific applications: biology, astronomy, chemistry
Automatic selection of TV programs
Monitoring intensive care patients

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 Processing loan applications (American
Express)

Given: questionnaire with

financial and personal information

Question: should money be lent?

Simple statistical method covers 90% of cases

Borderline cases referred to loan officers

But: 50% of accepted borderline cases defaulted!

Solution: reject all borderline cases?

No! Borderline cases are most active customers

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 Enter machine learning

1000 training examples of borderline cases

20 attributes:
age
years with current employer
years at current address
years with the bank
other credit cards possessed,

Learned rules: correct on 70% of cases

human experts only 50%

Rules could be used to explain decisions to customers

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 Screening images

Given: radar satellite images of coastal waters

Problem: detect oil slicks in those images

Oil slicks appear as dark regions with changing size

and shape

Not easy: lookalike dark regions can be caused by

weather conditions (e.g. high wind)

Expensive process requiring highly trained personnel

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 Enter machine learning

Extract dark regions from normalized image

Attributes:
size of region
shape, area
intensity
sharpness and jaggedness of boundaries
proximity of other regions
info about background

Constraints:
Few training examplesoil slicks are rare!
Unbalanced data: most dark regions arent slicks
Regions from same image form a batch
Requirement: adjustable false-alarm rate
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 Load forecasting

Electricity supply companies

need forecast of future demand
for power

Forecasts of min/max load for each hour

significant savings

Given: manually constructed load model that assumes

normal climatic conditions

Problem: adjust for weather conditions

Static model consist of:

base load for the year
load periodicity over the year
effect of holidays

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 Enter machine learning

Prediction corrected using most similar days

Attributes:
temperature
humidity
wind speed
cloud cover readings
plus difference between actual load and predicted load

Average difference among three most similar days added

to static model

Linear regression coefficients form attribute weights in

similarity function

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 Diagnosis of machine faults

Diagnosis: classical domain

of expert systems

Given: Fourier analysis of vibrations measured at

various points of a devices mounting

Question: which fault is present?

Preventative maintenance of electromechanical motors

and generators

Information very noisy

So far: diagnosis by expert/hand-crafted rules

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 Enter machine learning
Available: 600 faults with experts diagnosis
~300 unsatisfactory, rest used for training
Attributes augmented by intermediate concepts that
embodied causal domain knowledge
Expert not satisfied with initial rules because they did
not relate to his domain knowledge
Further background knowledge resulted in more
complex rules that were satisfactory
Learned rules outperformed hand-crafted ones

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 Marketing and sales I

Companies precisely record massive amounts of

marketing and sales data

Applications:
Customer loyalty:
identifying customers that are likely to defect by detecting
changes in their behavior
(e.g. banks/phone companies)
Special offers:
identifying profitable customers
(e.g. reliable owners of credit cards that need extra money
during the holiday season)

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 31

 Marketing and sales II

Market basket analysis

Association techniques find
groups of items that tend to
occur together in a
transaction
(used to analyze checkout data)

Historical analysis of purchasing patterns

Identifying prospective customers

Focusing promotional mailouts
(targeted campaigns are cheaper than mass-marketed
ones)

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 32

 Machine learning and statistics

Historical difference (grossly oversimplified):

Statistics: testing hypotheses
Machine learning: finding the right hypothesis

But: huge overlap

Decision trees (C4.5 and CART)
Nearest-neighbor methods

Today: perspectives have converged

Most ML algorithms employ statistical techniques

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 Statisticians

Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher

Born: 17 Feb 1890 London, England

Died: 29 July 1962 Adelaide, Australia

Numerous distinguished contributions to developing the

theory and application of statistics for making
quantitative a vast field of biology

Leo Breiman
Developed decision trees
1984 Classification and Regression
Trees. Wadsworth.

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 34

 Generalization as search

Inductive learning: find a concept description that fits

the data

Example: rule sets as description language

Enormous, but finite, search space

Simple solution:
enumerate the concept space
eliminate descriptions that do not fit examples
surviving descriptions contain target concept

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 Enumerating the concept space

Search space for weather problem

4 x 4 x 3 x 3 x 2 = 288 possible combinations
With 14 rules 2.7x1034 possible rule sets

Other practical problems:

More than one description may survive
No description may survive
Language is unable to describe target concept
or data contains noise

Another view of generalization as search:

hill-climbing in description space according to pre-specified
matching criterion
Most practical algorithms use heuristic search that cannot guarantee to
find the optimum solution

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 36

 Bias

Important decisions in learning systems:

Concept description language
Order in which the space is searched
Way that overfitting to the particular training data is avoided

These form the bias of the search:

Language bias
Search bias
Overfitting-avoidance bias

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 37

 Language bias

Important question:
is language universal
or does it restrict what can be learned?

Universal language can express arbitrary subsets of

examples

If language includes logical or (disjunction), it is

universal

Example: rule sets

Domain knowledge can be used to exclude some concept

descriptions a priori from the search

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 Search bias

Search heuristic
Greedy search: performing the best single step
Beam search: keeping several alternatives

Direction of search
General-to-specific
E.g. specializing a rule by adding conditions
Specific-to-general
E.g. generalizing an individual instance into a rule

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 39

 Overfitting-avoidance bias

Can be seen as a form of search bias

Modified evaluation criterion

E.g. balancing simplicity and number of errors

Modified search strategy

E.g. pruning (simplifying a description)
Pre-pruning: stops at a simple description before search proceeds
to an overly complex one
Post-pruning: generates a complex description first and
simplifies it afterwards

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 40

 Data mining and ethics I

Ethical issues arise in

practical applications

Anonymizing data is difficult

85% of Americans can be identified from just zip

code, birth date and sex

Data mining often used to discriminate

E.g. loan applications: using some information (e.g. sex,
religion, race) is unethical

Ethical situation depends on application

E.g. same information ok in medical application

Attributes may contain problematic information

E.g. area code may correlate with race

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 41

 Data mining and ethics II

Important questions:
Who is permitted access to the data?
For what purpose was the data collected?
What kind of conclusions can be legitimately drawn from it?

Caveats must be attached to results

Purely statistical arguments are never sufficient!

Are resources put to good use?

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques (Chapter 1) 42