Manheim Market Analysis For Cars July 2010
Manheim Market Analysis For Cars July 2010
July 2010
Monthly analysis of factual wholesale
used car market dynamics
7 winning years
Including...
Welcome to the July 2010 edition of Manheim's Market Analysis Report. Overall, values rose by £39 (0.6%) during July, having fallen by £346 (-4.7%) during June, but increased by £43 (0.6%) during May
2010. The increase in values during July 2010 was recorded despite no change in average age, static at 51 months, an increase of 87 miles to 50,983 miles in average mileage but a fall of 3% in the volume of
cars sold year-on-year. However, a fall of 1% in the % New Price retained was indicative of variances in the mix of models sold. Furthermore, the average selling price during July 2010 was £186 (-2.6%)
lower than during July 2009, although average age was 2 months higher and average mileage 1,740 miles higher during July 2010.
In the Fleet sector, the average selling price fell by £219 (-3.6%) during July, having fallen by £465 (-7.0%) during June and by £39 (-0.6%) during May 2010. The fall in values during July 2010 was partially
reflective of an increase of 1 month in average age and of 190 miles in average mileage. At £5,925, the average selling price was also £606 (-9.3%) lower in comparison with July 2009, although this was
primarily reflective of an increase of 3 months in average age and of 1,083 miles in average mileage. The % New Price retained fell by 1% during July 2010 and, at 34%, was also 3% lower in comparison with
the same period of the previous year. The average selling price increased for only MPV models during July 2010, by £93 or 1.3%, despite an increase of 2 months in average age and of 4,947 miles in
average mileage. The % New Price retained was static at 34%. The most notable falls in values were recorded by Executive (-9.7%), 4x4 (-7.5%), Supermini (-6.1%) and Small Hatchback models (-5.3%). The
average age of Executive models rose by 4 months and average mileage by 3,148 miles, with the % New Price retained falling by 3%. Similarly, the average age of 4x4 models fell by 5 months and average
mileage by 3,044 miles, with the % New Price retained falling by 4%. The average age of Supermini models fell by 1 month, although average mileage fell by only 50 miles, with the % New Price retained
falling by 4%. In contrast, the average age of Small Hatchback models rose by 1 month, although average mileage fell by 759 miles and the % New Price retained by 2%.
Values in the Dealer sector fell by only £10 (-0.5%) during July, having fallen by £150 (-6.5%) during June but risen by £68 (3.0%) during May 2010. The fall in values during July 2010 was recorded despite
a fall of 1 month in average age and of 958 miles in average mileage. However, at £2,153, the average selling price was £61 (2.9%) higher in comparison with July 2009, despite an increase of 1 month in
average age but a fall of 464 miles in average mileage. The average selling price fell for 5 segments considered, most notably for Coupe (-13.7%), Large Family (-3.4%) and Medium Family models (-2.4%).
The average age of Coupe models was static at 99 months, although average mileage rose by 1,316 miles. However, the % New Price retained fell by only 2%, indicative of variances in model mix. The
average age of Large Family models rose by 1 month, although average mileage rose by only 126 miles, with the % New Price retained static at 10%. Similarly, the average age of Medium Family models fell
by 1 month and average mileage by only 27 miles, with the % New Price retained static at 15%. The average selling price rose for the remaining 5 segments, most notably for MPV (7.8%), 4x4 (5.0%) and
Supermini models (3.7%).
(3 7%) The average age of MPV models fell by 2 months,
months although average mileage rose by 4,797
4 797 miles,
miles with the % New Price retained static at 13%.
13% The average age of 4x4 models fell
by 4 months, although average mileage rose, albeit by only 137 miles, with the % New Price retained also static, at 21%. The average age of Supermini models fell by 2 months and average mileage by 3,263
miles, with the % New Price retained again static, at 17%.
Values in the Manufacturer sector rose by £648 (5.1%), having fallen by £240 (-£1.9%) during June but risen by £201 (1.6%) during May 2010. The fall in values during July 2010 was recorded despite an
increase of 1 month in average age and of 695 miles in average mileage, although a fall of 1% in the % New Price retained was indicative of variances in the mix of models sold. The average selling price fell
for 6 segments, most notably for Small Hatchback (-9.6%), Compact Executive (-5.8%) and MPV models (-3.2%). The average age of Small Hatchback models rose by 2 months and average mileage by 1,952
miles, although the % New Price retained fell by 4%, indicative of variances in the mix of models sold. The average age of Compact Executive models rose by 3 months and average mileage by 846
miles, with the % New Price retained falling by 3%. The average age of MPV models rose by 1 month, although average mileage fell by 1,187 miles, with the % New Price retained falling by 1%. The average
selling price rose for the remaining 4 segments, most notably for Mini MPV (6.7%), Coupe (2.3%) and Executive models (2.1%). The average age of Mini MPV models fell by 1 month and average mileage by
2,445 miles, although the % New Price retained fell by 1%. Similarly, the average age of Coupe models fell by 4 months and average mileage by 3,986 miles, with the % New Price retained climbing by 2%.
The average age of Executive models fell by 2 months and average mileage by 2,008 miles, with the % New Price retained climbing by 1%.
Month Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10
Age (Months) 49 49 49 49 48 48 48 50 50 50 50 51 51
Highlights: Mileage 49,243 49,498 50,142 51,503 49,401 49,596 48,813 49,620 50,301 50,789 49,977 50,896 50,983
Selling Price (£) 7,203 7,390 7,436 7,173 7,169 6,875 7,187 7,208 7,453 7,281 7,324 6,978 7,017
The average selling price of cars sold during July 2010 rose by % New Price 38% 39% 40% 38% 37% 35% 38% 38% 39% 39% 38% 37% 36%
£39 (0.6%) in comparison with the previous month. Average YOY Vol. Var. 12% 6% -7% -6% -8% -7% -5% 5% 2% 3% 5% -9% -3%
age was static at 51 months, having risen by 1 month during
the previous period, with average mileage rising by only 87
miles to 50,983 miles during July 2010
Selling Price (£)
At £7,017, the average selling price was £186 (-2.6%) lower in 8,000
comparison with July 2009. However, average age was 2
months higher and average mileage 1,740 miles higher during 7,500
July 2010 in comparison with July 2009
7,000
7,453
7,436
7,390
6,000
7,324
7,281
7,208
7,203
7,187
7,173
7,169
7,017
6,978
6,875
Volumes fell by 3% during July 2010 in comparison with July 5,500
2009
5,000
4,500
Sep 09
Dec 09
Mar 10
Apr 10
Jul 09
Aug 09
Jan 10
Oct 09
Nov 09
Feb 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Year-on-Year Volume Variance*
30%
25%
20%
15% 12%
10%
6% 5% 5%
5% 3%
2%
0%
Nov 09
Oct 09
Dec 09
Jun 10
Mar 10
Jul 09
Aug 09
Sep 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jul 10
-5%
-20%
-25%
-30%
* The Year-on-Year Volume Variance is derived from the number of cars sold during a given month and in the same month of the previous year by a representative sample of vendors
periods This approach gives a much truer indication of year
who have traded in both periods. on year volume variance
year-on-year
July 2010
4,200
4,400
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
6,600
6,800
Jul 09
0 45
Jul 09 6,531
Aug 0
09 46
Age (Months)
Aug 09 6,681
Nov 09
0 44
Nov 09 6,206
Dec 09
0 44
Dec 09 6,249
Jan 10 43
Jan 10 6,609
Feb 10 46
Feb 10 6,425
Mar 10 46
Mar 10 6,749
Apr 10 47
Apr 10 6,648
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0%
5%
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
Mileage
Jul 09 37%
Jul 09
0 54,366
Aug 09 38%
Aug 09
0 53,852
Sep 09 38%
% Original New Price
Sep 09
0 55,564
Oct 09 36%
Oct 09
0 57,281
Nov 09 35%
Nov 09
0 53,680
Dec 09 34%
Dec 09
0 53,463
Jan 10 37%
Market Analysis
Jan 10
1 52,194
Feb 10 36%
Feb 10
1 53,861
4%
11%
4x4
Jul 09
0 12
% Volume
Supermini
Aug 09
0 12
9%
Days in Stock
Compact Executive
Sep 09
0 12
2%
17%
Oct 09
0 12
Coupe
5%
Executive
Nov 09
0 15
Small Hatchback
Dec 09
0 16
2%
Jan 10
1 20
4%
Feb 10
1 13
Mini MPV
Medium Family
Mar 10
1 12
Apr 1
10 14
16%
30%
MPV
May 10
1 17
Large Family
Jun 10
1 18
Current Month
Jul 10
1 17
Fleet
Page 3
Dealer
July 2010
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
Jul 09 94
Jul 09 2,092
Aug 09 93
Age (Months)
Aug 09 2,273
Dec 09 93
Dec 09 2,168
Jan 10 95
Jan 10 2,212
Feb 10 96
Feb 10 2,198
Mar 10 95
Mar 10 2,259
Apr 10 96
Apr 10 2,245
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
Mileage
Jul 09 15%
Jul 09
9 73,758
Aug 09 16%
Aug 09
9 73,709
Sep 09 17%
% Original New Price
Sep 09
9 72,259
Oct 09 17%
Oct 09
9 72,919
Nov 09 16%
Nov 09
9 73,229
Dec 09 15%
Dec 09
9 73,890
Jan 10 16%
Market Analysis
Jan 10
0 75,799
Feb 10 16%
Feb 10
0 75,788
6%
Jul 09
9 4
4x4
3%
% Volume
13%
Supermini
Aug 09
9 4
Days in Stock
7%
Sep 09
9 4
Compact Executive
2%
Oct 09
9 4
Coupe
5%
Nov 09
9 5
Executive
Dec 09
9 5
Small Hatchback
2%
Jan 10
0 6
25%
Feb 10
0 4
9%
Mini MPV
Mar 10
0 4
Medium Family
Apr 10
0 5
MPV
May 10
0 5
Jun 10
0 5
Large Family
27%
Current Month
Jul 10
0 5
Dealer
Page 5
Manufacturer
July 2010
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
Jul 09
0 21
Jul 09 12,965
Aug 0
09 22
Age (Months)
Mar 10 20
Mar 10 13,157
Apr 10 20
Apr 10 12,703
May 10 22
May 10 12,904
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Mileage
Jul 09 60%
Jul 09
0 19,416
Aug 09 59%
Aug 09
0 20,551
Sep 09 61%
% Original New Price
Sep 09
0 20,520
Oct 09 58%
Oct 09
0 21,657
Nov 09 57%
Nov 09
0 20,926
Dec 09 54%
Dec 09
0 21,653
Jan 10 59%
Market Analysis
Jan 10
1 19,784
Feb 10 60%
Feb 10
1 19,354
14%
1%
4x4
Jul 09
0 13
4%
% Volume
Supermini
Aug 09
0 12
Days in Stock
11%
Sep 09
0 13
Compact Executive
12%
Oct 09
0 12
Coupe
Nov 09
0 15
Executive
Small Hatchback
Dec 09
0 18
11%
5%
Jan 10
1 20
Feb 10
1 14
4%
Mini MPV
Mar 10
1 12
Medium Family
Apr 1
10 15
14%
MPV
May 10
1 16
24%
Jun 10
1 15
Large Family
Current Month
Jul 10
1 17
Manufacturer
Page 7
Fuel & Transmission Type Analysis
Large Family From 18 to 54 months old and less than 100,000 miles
Aug 09
May 10
Jul 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Sep 09
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
the same period
Compact Executive From 18 to 54 months old and less than 100,000 miles
15,000
Section Highlights:
The highest average selling price was recorded
by automatic diesel models, despite falling by
£171 (-1.3%) to £12,821 during July 2010.
13,000 Models with the same fuel and transmission also
retained the highest % New Price, down 1% to
48% during July 2010
Sep 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Oct 09
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 09
May 10
The highest average age was recorded by manual
petrol models, static at 40 months during July
2010. However, manual diesel models recorded
Month Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10
the highest average mileage, despite falling by
Automatic Diesel 1,629 miles to 56,835 miles during the same
Age (Months) 39 38 38 38 34 36 36 34 37 38 34 35 36 period
Mileage 54,038 48,870 52,626 54,000 44,134 49,831 46,332 41,611 48,355 52,535 40,812 42,783 42,760
Selling Price (£) 10,713 11,812 12,590 10,302 11,746 10,370 13,021 12,472 12,063 11,940 13,393 12,992 12,821 Manual diesel models also recorded the highest
% New Price 43% 46% 47% 40% 44% 40% 48% 48% 47% 44% 50% 49% 48%
average annual mileage (17.826 m.p.a.) and
% Total 13% 15% 13% 9% 12% 11% 13% 15% 13% 16% 16% 15% 14%
Automatic Petrol
automatic petrol models the lowest (11,737
Age (Months) 37 36 35 38 37 38 38 34 35 35 36 37 38 m.p.a.)
Mileage 40,154 39,410 39,101 38,666 36,108 36,613 36,881 31,047 32,321 35,528 34,597 32,595 36,845
Selling Price (£) 11,417 12,667 12,933 11,230 11,114 9,875 12,091 12,629 12,394 13,201 12,455 12,294 11,918
% New Price 44% 49% 49% 43% 43% 38% 47% 50% 48% 52% 48% 49% 46%
% Total 12% 14% 13% 10% 10% 10% 14% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 17%
Manual Diesel
Age (Months) 39 38 38 37 38 38 38 39 38 38 38 39 38
Mileage 57,881 55,944 54,678 57,448 56,024 54,822 54,837 55,326 55,533 58,297 55,261 58,464 56,835
Selling Price (£) 9,545 10,121 10,418 8,783 8,508 8,030 9,621 9,107 9,561 10,184 9,880 9,366 9,085
% New Price 41% 42% 44% 38% 37% 35% 41% 39% 41% 43% 41% 39% 38%
% Total 54% 53% 54% 62% 63% 63% 58% 55% 53% 54% 50% 52% 54%
Manual Petrol
Age (Months) 39 38 37 39 39 38 39 37 39 38 39 40 40
Mileage 43,581 41,416 40,654 44,018 44,022 46,063 43,649 39,341 42,512 42,711 41,529 48,129 41,743
Selling Price (£) 10,757 11,275 11,529 9,845 9,281 8,498 10,751 10,284 10,942 12,015 11,127 10,570 10,036
% New Price 45% 47% 48% 41% 39% 35% 44% 43% 45% 48% 44% 44% 42%
% Total 21% 18% 19% 19% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 15% 19% 17% 15%
Jul 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Sep 09
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 09
Oct 09
Jan 10
May 10
average mileage, despite recording an increase of
1,593 miles to 41,008 miles during the same
period
The highest average age was recorded by manual Month Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10
petrol models, reflective of a further increase of Automatic Diesel
4 months to 45 months during July 2010. Models Age 32 32 34 34 32 35 32 33 34 33 34 34 34
with the same fuel and transmission also Mileage 38,821 36,004 39,750 41,125 36,812 44,102 40,107 39,523 39,225 43,047 41,272 39,415 41,008
recorded the highest average mileage, reflective Selling Price 15,744 17,425 17,200 15,705 16,989 15,540 16,426 16,531 16,097 15,749 16,643 16,388 15,560
% New Price 45% 47% 47% 44% 44% 43% 45% 45% 45% 46% 44% 44% 43%
of an increase of 10,380 miles to 64,316 miles Proportion of segment 57% 66% 61% 55% 65% 61% 54% 61% 64% 67% 71% 66% 66%
during July 2010 Automatic Petrol
Age (Months) 35 35 35 34 38 37 39 38 37 39 38 39 39
The highest average annual mileage was recorded Mileage 35,459 37,619 37,172 44,782 36,529 34,555 43,840 40,899 44,145 41,176 46,172 39,873 46,340
by manual diesel models (18,246 m.p.a.), the Selling Price (£) 13,893 15,268 14,055 15,252 15,095 14,806 16,847 17,695 17,227 20,544 17,464 15,989 17,422
% New Price 37% 40% 41% 40% 39% 40% 38% 40% 41% 43% 40% 38% 39%
lowest by automatic diesel models (14,313
Proportion of segment 13% 12% 14% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9%
m.p.a.) Manual Diesel
Age (Months) 36 39 36 36 39 37 39 36 36 37 37 36 38
Mileage 57,298 60,501 57,028 57,462 60,068 59,644 57,955 55,746 55,580 62,430 57,330 57,488 58,128
Selling Price (£) 11,527 11,103 11,736 11,049 11,018 10,383 10,788 10,692 11,574 11,256 11,385 11,390 10,295
% New Price 42% 41% 43% 42% 40% 38% 40% 40% 43% 42% 42% 42% 38%
Proportion of segment 27% 19% 22% 30% 22% 23% 34% 25% 24% 21% 19% 21% 24%
Manual Petrol
Age (Months) 43 42 43 40 39 45 42 42 44 44 38 41 45
Mileage 55,585 55,403 44,084 52,765 49,127 51,037 66,468 46,750 59,244 35,859 66,645 53,936 64,316
Selling Price (£) 7,577 7,723 7,869 7,506 9,753 6,271 6,588 9,520 9,354 10,025 8,860 7,295 6,615
% New Price 31% 31% 33% 29% 39% 26% 31% 36% 36% 38% 35% 28% 26%
Proportion of segment 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1%
Definitions Disclaimer
Vehicles The data analysed within this report comprises vehicles entered and sold This document, and the information contained in it, is for use by customers and associates of
at Manheim Auctions & Remarketing within a given month and sourced Manheim Auctions Limited (“Manheim”) only.
from Leasing Companies ('Fleet'), Vehicle Manufacturers ('Manufacturers')
and Motor Dealers ('Dealer') Manheim does not represent that the information and any advice or commentary contained in this
document is accurate, complete or up-to-date and it should not be relied on as such. The
Volumes The volumes considered include a significant sample of cars sold during information and commentary contained in this document does not constitute any recommendation
the specified period or take into account the particular objectives or needs of particular customers. Recipients should
consider whether the information and commentary contained in this document is suitable for their
New Price New Price relates to the CAP new value at time of registration (vehicles particular purposes and circumstances. This document is based upon historic data and should not
only included where a valid New Price is available) be taken as a guide to future market developments and trends. Manheim accepts no responsibility
for any loss which any person may suffer or incur as a result of acting or relying upon any
Days in Stock Number of working days from arrival to sale date information or commentary contained in this document.
Data Source Manheim Auctions & Remarketing databases Neither this document nor any part of it may be copied, duplicated (in any way whatsoever), sold
to a third party or otherwise made available or redistributed to any third party by any means
Fleet End of contract vehicles from wholly owned fleets, contract hire and fleet whatsoever, without the prior written consent of Manheim. The information contained within this
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p or create derivative works of the information contained in this
Manufacturer Company vehicles, press and demonstrator vehicles plus ex-daily rental document.
'buy back' returns
Market Analysis Monthly Report is produced by Manheim Auctions Limited
Dealer Part exchanges from retail sales (90%) plus overage stock
Mike Pilkington, Managing Director, Manheim Auctions & Remarketing
Craig Mailey, Auction Marketing & Client Services Director
Andrew Andersz, Editorial Consultant, The JJ Group
Karl Fisher, Client Information Manager, Manheim Auctions
Matt Allen, Adam Boyes & Jonathan Cooper, Client Information Co-ordinators, Manheim Auctions
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All vehicles sold during the periods considered are identified by market sector and, based on a You can contact us at:
listing of all vehicles sold since 2007, categorised by market segment. Examples of models from Manheim Auctions Sales Support
each market segment include: Ashton Vale Road
Ashton Vale
Bristol
BS3 2AZ
Supermini Citroen C1, Ford Ka, Toyota Aygo e-mail: [email protected]
Small Hatchback Peugeot 207, SEAT Ibiza, Vauxhall Corsa
Medium Family FIAT Bravo, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Golf © 2010 Manheim Auctions Limited
Large Family Honda Accord, Renault Laguna, Volvo V50
Compact Executive Audi A4, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, SAAB 9-3
Executive BMW 5-Series, Jaguar XJ Series, Lexus LS
Mini MPV Citroen (C4) Picasso, Renault Megane Scenic, Vauxhall Zafira
MPV Chrysler (Grand) Voyager, Ford S-Max, Renault Espace
4x4 BMW X3, Land Rover Discovery, Volvo XC90
Coupe Alfa Romeo Brera, Mazda MX-5, Volkswagen Eos