Driving Forces, Scenarios and

Strategies - Key Concepts

1 Driving forces ................................................................................................................... 1

2 Future uncertainties ......................................................................................................... 2

3 Time horizons................................................................................................................... 2

4 Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 3

5 Strategies ......................................................................................................................... 3

6 Changing attitudes ........................................................................................................... 4

7 When to use scenario planning........................................................................................ 4

8 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... 4

1 Driving forces

Driving forces, as used in these ARD learning resources, are the external factors that are
causing, or might cause, changes in livelihood systems and rural practices. These factors
are external to the system of interest to stakeholders in that they are considered to be
beyond the control of these stakeholders.

Driving forces can include changes in social, technological, environmental, economic and
political factors, for example:

Demographic factors (population increase, in/out migration, changing age/gender

structure, etc).
Laws and regulations (affecting land ownership, labour relations, environmental
protection measures, etc).
Policies (subsidies, price controls or guarantees, import/export controls, quotas
and tariffs, exchange rates, etc).
Markets and competition (size of or access to, local, national and international
markets; growing competitiveness of producers in other regions, countries etc).
Technology (availability of new genotypes, machinery, etc).
Institutions (new actors, influences, social organization).
Information (availability, communications technology).
Non-agricultural employment opportunities (processing, manufacturing, business,
services, migration/ remittances, etc.)
Natural resources (characteristics of watershed, water availability, groundwater
levels, land degradation, etc).
Of course, it is sometimes difficult to draw the line between external driving forces, and
factors over which stakeholders do have some control. For example, an individual farmer

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may consider the characteristics of a watershed (water availability from streams,
groundwater level) or the existence or not of a farmers organization as external (something
over which he or she has no individual control), whereas collectively farmers may be able to
exert control over these factors. Local stakeholders might consider national policies (e.g. on
land use, or input subsidies) as factors over which they have no control, but alternatively
they might be able to work together to provide evidence of the effects of actual or potential
policies, and/or lobby key ministries or government departments for change of these policies.
The definition of driving forces in each individual case will therefore depend on the system
as defined by the stakeholders, and the level of organization of this system.

2 Future uncertainties

Driving forces can be distinguished according to their predictability:

Trends (or mega-trends) are driving forces that are well established and will not
change over the (planning) term, or are fairly certain to happen. These factors
have implications for all future scenarios. For example:
o Population growth
o Consumption of a given commodity (staple food, source of energy)
o Market liberalization (removal of subsidies, lowing of tariffs for agricultural
goods).
Shocks or risks are unpredictable driving forces. However, they are crucial in the
evolution of any problem situation. These uncertainties will determine the shape of
particular scenarios. For example:
o Changes in public opinion, consumer choice between different
commodities
o Risks such as floods, droughts
o Changes in commodity or input prices
It can be difficult to distinguish between probable and uncertain futures. Some factors may
seem inevitable today, but become uncertain in the future. For example: it is reasonable to
assume that in many countries or regions, the population will continue to grow; however, we
cannot be certain what the growth rate will be in the future, or migration or disease patterns
will change the picture significantly.

In dealing with uncertain events, the probability that such an event will occur is an important
consideration, and how it will impact on the problem situation if it does. For risks such as
drought or hurricanes, it can be helpful to think of past occurrences what happened the last
time? Is this pattern likely to be repeated in the future?

3 Time horizons

Depending on the time horizon (e.g. 5 years, 10 years, 50 years), scenarios will be very
different. For practical purposes, the time horizon used in a planning activity needs to fit the
requirements of all stakeholders.

However, stakeholders mandates, interests and potential for action may not be the same.
For example: farmers will have more immediate concerns that need to be accommodated in
short term scenarios. On the other hand, the development of some problems needs to be
explored over a longer time frame. Past trends can give an idea of what time perspective to
take.

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For agricultural research particularly, it is also important to think of medium to long-term
futures. Much agricultural research, particularly strategic or more basic research, or research
into species with longer life cycles such as fruit or industrial trees does not yield tangible
benefits for a period or 7 or 10 years, or even longer. Changing the hydrological
characteristics of a watershed or countering problems of soil fertility are better considered
over a longer time frame: a generation or more. Planners need to be aware that these time
horizons are often beyond the immediate life of many projects.

4 Scenarios

In theatrical terms a scenario is the outline or sketch of the scenes of a play, giving
particulars of the scenes and situations. In planning or everyday use it also means a
projected or imagined course of events or future situation. In these learning resources,
scenarios refer to combinations of driving forces that describe, compare and contrast the
possible or probable future context within which development will take place.

The context within which development decisions are made is very complex and dynamic.
Making predictions is very difficult because of changing environmental, institutional, political
and demographic factors. Thinking about future scenarios the different ways in which the
future might unfold - is a way for stakeholders to bring their perceptions and visions of the
future together. These stakeholders can then confront the different versions and decide
which scenarios are most relevant to the formulation of a common goal, and strategies to
achieve that goal. At the same time, the process of building these scenarios helps
stakeholders change their attitudes.

In this sense, developing scenarios is not the same as simply forecasting or predicting the
future; the process does not always try to take current trends and use them to describe a
single image of the future, but rather looks at different futures - what might happen, if
conditions allowed. Making dependable forecasts (confidently predicting the future) in
development is a very difficult task because of the complexity of issues and unpredictability
of events. Scenario development or planning is thus a creative process where different
trends or future situations are hypothesized, and combined to form a (limited) range of
possible futures that will each require different courses of action (strategies) on the part of
stakeholders.

It is also important to recognize that, in this learning resource at least, scenario is not used to
simply describe a future situation as desired by stakeholders, in the sense of a future vision
or objective to work towards. Rather it describes a future as determined by events or trends
over which stakeholders have little or no control, but which stakeholders have to live with or
respond to.

5 Strategies

The construction of different scenarios highlights different potential conditions that might
exist in the future. These scenarios provide the future context (or environment) within which
stakeholders will or might need to act. Stakeholders can then make strategic decisions about
which actions are likely to produce an optimal outcome within the most likely scenario; or at
least will avoid the risk of producing a disastrous outcome within possible scenarios.

Lets assume that a probable future scenario is one of lower world coffee prices, and, at the
same time, one of increasing national markets for fresh fruit. Stakeholders might respond to
this scenario by a development strategy of changing from coffee to fruit production. Another

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example of a possible future scenario is one of devaluation of the national currency; under
this scenario it might be advisable to develop a strategy of avoiding reliance on imported
inputs. Of course, strategies that produce good outcomes across the range of scenarios are
to be preferred; but this is not always possible.

This is the process of strategic planning. In these learning resources therefore, we refer to
different possible development strategies, as integrated sets of research and development
actions that should result in a desirable outcome under a likely scenario or scenarios.

6 Changing attitudes

The process of identifying different future scenarios, discussing the likelihood and desirability
of these different possibilities, helps stakeholders review and change their attitudes. The
process of building scenarios:
Clarifies stakeholders views and values
Challenges conventional thinking
Encourages debate
Provides a common framework for addressing critical concerns, and
Provides a common framework for identifying alternativesScenario identification
can therefore be seen as a forward-looking, co-operative process or learning tool. A good
scenario does not have to show the future accurately. It is more important that it enables an
organization or a group of stakeholders to learn, adapt and enrich their collaboration towards
identifying and achieving a common objective.

Through scenario planning, stakeholders uncover their own biases and assumptions. It helps
challenge the cultural mind-set that prevents them from seeing alternatives.

7 When to use scenario planning

Scenario planning is particularly useful when:

There is a great deal of uncertainty over the way in which a problem or issue will
develop under different future situations.
There is a lack of long-term vision of what the future might look like.
The local economy is experiencing or about to experience significant change.
There are strong differences of opinion between stakeholders about the future
circumstances and/or desirable actions under different future scenarios.
A common language and framework are needed to bring together so many
different views.Acknowledgements

This learning resource was prepared for ICRA (www.icra-edu.org) by Nour Sellamna, and
edited by Richard Hawkins. It forms part of the ICRA learning resources, written for use in
capacity building in Agricultural Research for Development. You are welcome to use these
materials for non-profit purposes; we only ask you to send us a short email at

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[email protected], or leave a comment on our webpage telling us how you have used
them and how you think they could be improved Thank you!

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