IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No.

1, February 1999 51
BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY
METHODS IN POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION

1992-1996

R.N. Allan R. Billinton A.M. Breipohl C.H. Grigg

Fellow Fellow Fellow Senior Member

Task Force Members of the IEEE Subcommittee on Reliability, Risk and Probability Applications

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a bibliography of papers on the subject 4. "Adequacy modelling of large windfarms in electric utility
of power system reliability evaluation. Papers in such areas as: generation planning"; A.A. Chowdhury, R. Billinton. CEA
probabilistic load flow, probabilistic production costing, Transactions, 1992.
probabilistic transient stability evaluation etc. have not been
included except where they specifically address power system 5. "A frequency and duration approach for generation reliability
reliability evaluation. evaluation using the method of stages"; J.O. Kim, C. Singh.
IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 1, Feb. 1993, pp.
It includes material which has become available since the 207-21 5.
publication of the five previous papers. "Bibliography on the
Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability 6. "Estimation of the derivatives of generation system reliability
Evaluation", IEEE Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems PAS- indices in Monte Carlo simulation"; M.M. Ahmad, A. Debs,
91,1972, pp. 649-660; PAS-97,1978, pp. 2235-2242; PAS-103, Y. Wardi. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 4,
1984, pp. 275-282; IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 3, No. 4, NOV. 1993, pp. 1448-1 454.
Nov. 1988, pp. 1555-1 564, and Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 41-
49. 7. " A new technique for generating capacity reliability
evaluation"; C. Singh, J-0. Kim. Elect Power Systems
INTRODUCTION Research,Vol. 23, No. 3, 1993, pp. 181-187.

Considerable activity has continued in the development and 8. "Reliability analysis of generating systems including
application of probabilistic techniques for power system reliability intermittent sources": S. Fockens, A.J.M. van Wijk, W.C.
evaluation since the four previous bibliographies were published in Turkenburg, C. Singh. Int J of Elect Power and Energy
1972, 1978, 1984, 1988 and 1994. The Subcommittee on the Systems, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1993, pp. 2-8.
Reliability, Risk and Probability Applications (RRPA), formerly
Applications of Probability Methods (APM), has continued to 9. " A generalized cumulant method for generating capacity
maintain an updated bibliography and, in view of the interest reliability evaluation"; M.M. Alavi-Serashki, C. Singh. Elect
expressed in this material, has decided to publish a further Power Systems Research, Vol. 23, No. 1, 1993, pp. 1;4.
extension.
I O . " A new index for generation capacity reliability studies,
The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution and expected cost penalty"; S. Asgarpoor, C. Singh. Elect Power
valuable comments of all members of the RRPA Subcommittee. Systems Research, Vol. 23, No. 1, 1993, pp. 23-29.

11. "Reliability criteria selection for integrated resource

STATIC GENERATING CAPACITY RELIABILITY EVALUATION planning"; D. Ruiu, R. Billinton, C. Ye, D. Lakhanpal. CEA
Transactions, 1993.
1. "Incorporation of wind energy conversion systems in
conventional generating capacity adequacy assessment"; R. 12. "Photovoltaic generating facilities i n generating capacity
Billinton, A.A. Chowdury. Proc. IEE, 139 Part C, 1992, pp. adequacy assessment"; R. Billinton, A.A. Chowdhury. CEA
47-56. Transactions, 1993.

2. "Uncertainty considerations in frequency and duration 13. "Numerical methods for stable implementation of generating-
analysis for large hydrothermal generating systems"; A.M. unit deconvolution"; S.Fockens, G.L.G. Sleijpen, A.J.M. van
Leite da Silva, J. Coelho, A.C.G. Melo. Proc. IEE, 139 Part Wijk, C. Singh. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, 1994, pp. 219-226.
C, 1992, pp.277-299.
14. "Adequacy evaluation of generating systems containing
3. "Load modelling for generating capacity reliability evaluation WECS using simulation techniques"; R. Billinton, X. Cao, R.
using the frequency and duration method"; J. Nahman, M. Ghajar. CEA Transactions, 1994.
Graovac. Proc. IEE, 139 Part C, 1992, pp.529-535.
15. "A comparison of three fundamentally different methods for
PE-201-PWRS-0-2-1998 A paper recommended and approved by the generating capacity reliability evaluation"; L. Goel, R.
IEEE Power System Analysis, Computing and Economics Committee Billinton. Electric Power Systems Research Journal, Vol. 29,
of the IEEE Power Engineering Society for publication in the IEEE NO. 1, 1994, pp.1-8.
Transactions on Power Systems. Manuscript submitted July 15, 1997:
made available for printing January 20, 1998 16. "Power system reliability"; R.N. Allan, R.Billinton. Journal of
Power Generation Technology, 1994, pp. 71-76.

0885-8950/99/$10.00 0 1998 IEEE

52

17. "Application of energy based indices i n generating system 404-41 2.

reliability analysis"; S . Fockens, A.J.M. van Wijk, W.C.
Turkenburg. C. Singh. lnt J of Elect Power and Energy 8. "Monte Carlo simulation model for multiarea generation
Systems, Vol. 16, Oct. 1994, pp. 311-319. system reliability studies"; R. Billinton, L. Gan. Proc. IEE,
140 Part C, 1993, pp. 532-538.
18. " A new and fast electric power generating system relaibility
evaluation model using Petri nets"; H. Salehfar, R. Rodick. J 9. "Reliability indices for electric-power wheeling"; N.A.
of Reliability, Quality and Safety Eng, Vol. 1 , No. 4, 1994, Mijuskovic. IEEE Trans. on Reliability, 1994, 43, pp. 207-
pp. 459-473. 209.

19. "Reserve capacity assessment i n small isolated electric 10. "A new mathematical approach t o multi-area power system
power generating systems"; R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. reliability evaluation"; R. Pathak, C. Singh. Microelectronics
IEE Power Engineering Journal, I O , 1996, pp. 72-80. and Reliability, Vol. 35, No. 1 , 1995, pp. 73-80.

20. "A sequential simulation technique for adequacy evaluation 11. " A new model for reliability evaluation of t w o coupled
of generating systems including wind energy"; R. Billinton, networks"; M.S. Deyab. Elect Machines and Power Systems,
H. Chen, R. Ghajar. IEEE Winter Power Meeting, Paper No. Vol. 23, NO. 3, 1995, pp. 303-317.
96 W M 644-8.
12. "Reliability evaluation of interconnected power systems using
21. "Generation availability of wind farms": F. Castro Sayas, a multi-parameter gamma distribution"; C. Singh, G.M.
R.N. Allan. IEE Proc., Gener. Transm. Distrib., Vol. 143, No. Chintaluri. Int J of Elect Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 17,
5, Sept. 1996, pp. 507-51 8. NO. 2, 1995, pp. 151-160.

22. "Comparison of unit addition and fast Fourier transform 13. "Reliability of t w o interconnected systems with jointly owned
methods for generation system relaibility evaluation"; C. units"; Q. Ahsan. Int J of Elect Power and Energy Systems,
Singh, N.V. Gubbala. Int J of Elect Power and Energy Vol. 17, NO. 6, 1995, pp. 363-370.
Systems, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1996, pp. 203-205.
14. "Incorporating the DC load f l o w model i n the decomposition-
23. "A new method for reliability evaluation of generating simulation method of multi-area reliability evaluation"; J.
systems"; H. Salehfar, R. Rodick. J of Electric Machines and Mitra, C. Singh. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 11,
Power Systems, Vol. 24, No. 8, 1996, pp. 817-831. NO. 3, Aug. 1996, pp. 1245-1 254.

M ULTI-AREA RELIABILITY EVALUATION 15. "Composite reliability evaluation of interconnected power

systems"; M.A.H. El-Sayed, H-J. Hinz. Elect Machines and
1. "A Monte Carlo method for multi area generation system Power Systems, Vol. 24, No. 6, 1996, pp. 609-622.
reliability assessment"; R. Billinton, L. Wenyuan. IEEE Trans
on Power Systems, Vol. 7, No. 4, Nov. 1992, pp.1487- COMPOSITE GENERATION-TRANSMISSION RELIABILITY
1492. EVALUATION

2. " A transmission network model for multi-area reliability 1. " A security based approach t o composite power system
studies"; A.D. Patton, S.K. Sung. IEEE Trans. on Power reliability evaluation"; R. Billinton, E. Khan. IEEE Trans. on
Systems, Vol. 8, No. 2, May 1993, pp. 459-465. Power Systems, Vol. 7, No. 1 , Feb. 1992, pp. 65-71.

3. " A new approach to reliability evaluation of interconnected 2. " A hybrid model for quantifying different operating states of
power systems including planned outages and frequency composite power systems"; M.E. Khan, R. Billinton. IEEE
calculations"; 2. Deng, C. Singh. IEEE Trans. on Power Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 7 , No. 1 , Feb. 1992, pp.
Systems, Vol. 17, No. 2, May 1992, pp. 734-743. 187-1 93.

4. "Incorporation and effects of different supporting policies in 3. "Sequential simulation applied to composite system reliability
multi-area generation system reliability assessment"; W. Li, evaluation"; J.R. Ubeda and R. N. Allan. IEE Proc., Part C,
R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3, Vol. 139, No. 2, March 1992, pp. 81-86.
Aug. 1993, pp.1061-1067.
4. "Integrated treatment of adequacy and security in bulk
5. " A Monte Carlo technique for computing the benefits arising power system reliability evaluations"; A.M. Leite da Silva, J.
from the interconnection of power systems"; A. Cook, I. Endrenyi, L. Wang. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 3,
Rose. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3, Aug. No. 1 , March 1993, pp. 275-285.
1993, pp. 873-878.
5. "Reliability assessment of composite hydro thermal
6. "Convergence characteristics of t w o Monte Carlo models for generation and trahsmission systems"; J. Roman, R.N. Allan.
reliability evaluation of interconnected power systems"; C. 92 W M 144-6-PWRS.
Singh, T.P. Chander, J. Feng. Elect Power Systems
Research, Vol. 28, No. 1, 1993, pp. 1-9. 6 . "A conditional probability approach t o the calculation of
frequency & duration indices in composite reliability
7. "Reliability evaluation of interconnected power systems evaluation"; A. C. G. Melo, M. V. F. Pereira, A. M. Leite da
including jointly owned generators"; C. Singh, N. Gubbala. Silva, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3, Aug.
IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1 , Feb. 1994, pp. 1993, pp. 1 1 18-1 125.
 53
7. "Consideration of multi-state generating unit models in 22. "Conceptual framework for evaluation and interpretation of
composite system adequacy assessment using Monte Carlo the reliability of the composite power system"; B. Porretta,
simulation"; R. Billinton, L. Wenyuan. Canadian Journal E.G. Neudorf. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No.
Elect. and Comp. Engin., Vol. 17, No. 1, January 1992, pp. 2, May 1995, pp. 1094-1103.
24-28.
23. "Topological reduction considering uncertainties"; R.N.F.
8. " A system state transition sampling method for composite Filho, M.T. Schilling, J.W.R. Pereira, J.C.O. Mello. IEEE
system reliability evaluation"; R. Billinton, W. Li. IEEE Trans. Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 2, May 1995, pp.
on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3, Aug. 1993, pp.761-770. 739-744.

9. "Effects of non-utility generators on composite system 24. "Consideration of dependent outages in security-constrained
adequacy evaluation"; R. Billinton, F. Gbeddy. IEEE Trans. on adequacy evaluation of composite systems"; R. Billinton, G.
Power Delivery, Vol. 8, No. 3, Aug. 1993, pp.771-777. Lian. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, 1994, pp. 47-52.

10. "Reliability evaluation using a composite system operating 25. "Reliability assessment of composite hydrothermal
state risk index"; R. Billinton, G. Lian. CEA Transactions, generation and transmission systems using sequential
1993. simulation"; J.R. Ubeda, R.N. Allan. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C,
1994, pp. 257-262.
11. "Bulk system delivery point performance reporting at Alberta
Power Limited"; A.A. Chowdhury, C.F. Fuchshuber, R. 26. "Predictiveassessmentofbulk-system-reliabilityperformance
Billinton. CEA Transactions, 1993. indices"; R. Billinton, J. Satish. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, 1994,
pp. 466-472.
12. "Bulk power system reliability criteria and indices trends and
future needs"; IEEE Committee Report, Chairman R.J. 27. "Models and considerations for parallel implementation of
Ringlee. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. Monte Carlo simulation methods for power system reliability
1994, pp.181-190. evaluation"; N. Gubbala, C. Singh. IEEE Trans. on Power
Systems, Vol. 10, No. 2, May 1995, pp. 779-787,
13. "Effect of protection systems on bulk power reliability
evaluation"; IEEE Task Force Report, Chairman S.H. 28. "Bulk power system reliability performance assessment";
Shahidehpour. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1, C.C. Fong, C.H. Grigg. Reliability Engineering and System
Feb. 1994, pp.198-205. Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 25-31.

14. "Sequential simulation applied to composite system reliability 29. "Reliability assessment of hydro-thermal composite systems
evaluation"; J.R.Ubeda, R.N.Allan. Proc. IEE, 139 Part C, b y means of stochastic simulation techniques"; J. RomBn,
1992, pp.81-86. R.N. Allan. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 46,
1994, pp. 33-47.
15. "Incorporation of a DC link, in a composite system adequacy
assessment - DC system modelling"; R. Billinton, D.S. 30. "New trends in power system planning and related effect on
Ahluwalia. Proc. IEE, 139 Part C, 1992, pp.211-220. the reliability evaluation"; 0. Bertoldi, A. Rivoiro, Luigi
Salvaderi. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 46,
16. "incorporation of a DC link in a composite system adequacy 1994, pp. 49-61.
assessment - composite system analysis"; R. Billinton, D.S.
Ahluwalia. Proc. IEE, 1 3 9 Part C, 1992, pp.221-226. 31. "Inclusion of weather effects in composite system reliability
evaluation using sequential simulation": M.R. Bhuiyan, R.N.
17. "Power system reliability analysis, Vol. 2 composite power Allan. Proc. IEE, 1 4 1 Part C, 1994, pp. 575-584.
system reliability evaluation"; CIGRE Task Force 30.03.1 0,
ClGRE Publications, 1992. 32. "Sequential Monte Carlo simulation for composite power
system reliability analysis with time varying loads"; A.
18. "Composite power system health analysis using a security Sankarakrishnan, R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power
constrained adequacy evaluation procedure"; R. Billinton, G. Systems, Vol. I O , No. 3, Aug. 1995, pp. 1540-1545.
Lian. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 2, May
1994, pp. 936-941. 33. "Effective techniques for reliability worth assessment in
composite power system network using Monte Carlo
19. "Review of adequacy standards for generation and simulation"; A. Sankarakrishnan, R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on
transmission planning"; Ad-hoc Group 37.02, Electra Power Systems, Vol. 1 1, No. 3, Aug. 1996, pp. 1255-1 261.
(CIGRE), NO. 150, 1993, pp. 67-85.
34. "Reporting bulk power system delivery point reliability"; IEEE
20. "Loadability in composite generation/transmission power- Task Force. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 1 1, No. 3,
system reliability evaluation"; T.A.M. Sharaf, G.J. Berg. IEEE Aug. 1996, pp. 1262-1268.
Trans. on Reliability, 1993, 42, pp. 393-400.
35. "Security evaluation of composite power systems"; R.
21. "Adequacy assessment of composite power systems with Billinton, S. Aboreshaid. Proc, IEE, 1 4 2 Part C, Sept. 1995,
HVDC links using Monte Carlo simulation"; R. Billinton, A. pp. 5 1 1-516.
Ssnkarakrishnsn. IEEE Trsno. on Power System-, Vel. 0 , No.
3, Aug. 1994, pp.1626-1633. 36. "Topological analysis in bulk power system reliability
evaluation"; J. Satish, R. Billinton, 9 6 W M 3 1 3-7-PWRS.
54

37. "Integration of non-utility generating facilities into the IO. "Composite system spinning reserve assessment in
reliability assessment of composite generation and interconnected systems"; M.E. Khan, R. Billinton. Proc. IEE,
transmission power systems"; E.N. Dialynas, N.C. Koskolos, 142 Part C, May 1995, pp. 305-309.
D.J. Papakammenos, 9 6 W M 314-5-PWRS.
1 1. "Unit commitment health analysis for interconnected
38. "Composite system reliability evaluation using state space"; systems"; R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid,
C.Singh, J. Mitra, 9 6 W M 31 5-2-PWRS. 9 6 S M 500-9-PWRS.

39. "The effects of voltage collapse problems in the reliability 12. "Spinning reserve allocation using response health analysis";
evaluation of composite systems": A.C.G. Melo, J.C.O. M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R. Billinton, S . Aboreshaid. IEE Proc.,
Mello, S. Granville, 9 6 W M 31 6-0-PWRS. Gener. Transm. Distrib., Vol. 143, No. 4, July 1996, pp.
337-343.
40. "The IEEE reliability test system - 1996"; IEEE Reliability Test
System Task Force, 9 6 W M 326-9-PWRS. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY
EVALUATION
41. "Impact on power wheeling on composite system adequacy
evaluation"; R. Billinton, F. Gbeddy. Journal of Electric 1 . "Multiple contingency selection for transmission reliability
Power And Energy System, Vol. 18, No. 3, March 1996, pp. and transfer capability studies"; R.A. Schlueter, A. Costi, J.
143-1 51. Sekerke, K. Burnett. Elect Machines and Power Systems,
Vol. 20. no. 3, 1992, pp. 223-237.
42. "Enhanced adequacy equivalent for composite power system
reliability evaluation"; R. Billinton, W. Zhang. IEE Proc., 2. "Improved distribution system reliability at Northeast Utilities:
Gener. Transm. Distrib, Vol. 143, No. 5, Sept. 1996, pp. A Case Study": D.A. Walder, J.G. Tine. IEEE Trans. on
420-426. Power Delivery, Vol. 8, No. 2, April 1993, pp. 689-696.

OPERATING RESERVE RELIABILITY EVALUATION 3. "Improved distribution system reliabilityat Northeast Utilities:
a case history"; J.G. Tine, D.A. Walder. IEEE Trans on Power
1. " A Gauss-Markov load model for application i n risk Delivery, Vol. 8 , No. 2, 1993, pp. 689-696.
evaluation production simulation"; A.M. Breipohl, F.N. Lee,
D. Zhai, R. Adapa. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 7 , 4. "Transmission station reliability evaluation"; T.K.P.
NO. 4, NOV. 1992, pp. 1493-1499. Medicherla, M.Chau, R.E. Zigmund, K. Chan. IEEE Trans. on
Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 295-304.
2. "Energy method of spinning reserve assessment in
interconnected generation systems"; N. Chowdhury. IEEE 5. "Monte Carlo approach t o substation reliability evaluation";
Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3, Aug. 1993, pp. R.Billinton, G.Lian. Proc. IEE, 1 9 4 Part C, March 1993, pp.
865-872. 147-152.

3. "Basic concepts in probabilistic assessment of operating 6. "Method for reliability analysis of industrial distribution
reserve in interconnected generating systems"; N. systems"; M.H.J. Bollen. Proc. IEE, 140 Part C , 1993, pp.
Chowdhury, R. Billinton. CEA Transactions, 1992. 497-502.

4. "The effect of load uncertainty on unit commitment risk"; D. 7. "Station reliability evaluation using a Monte Carlo approach";
Zhai, A.M. Breipohl, F.N. Lee, R. Adapa. IEEE Trans. on R. Billinton, G. Lian. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, Vol. 8 ,
Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 510-517. NO. 3, July 1993, pp.1239-I 249.

5. "Operating reserve risk assessment in composite power 8. "Substation reliability evaluation: a specific tool for
systems"; G. Lian, R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power designers"; E. Bourgade, T. Desmas. Reliability Engineering
Systems, Vol. 9, No. 3, Aug. 1994, pp.1270-1276. and System Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 63-73.

6. "Probabilistic assessment of spinning reserve i n isolated and 9. "Progress towards integration of reliability concepts in a
interconnected generation systems"; N. Chowdhury. segregated electric utility system"; R Simpson. Reliability
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 83- Engineering and System Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 109-1 12.
91.
10. "Shunt capacitor effect on electrical distribution system
7. " A basic framework for generating system operation health reliability"; A.A. Sallam, M. Desouky, H. Desouky. IEEE
analysis"; R. Billinton, M, Fotuhi-Firuzabad, I R E Trans. on Trans. on Reliability, 1994, 43, pp. 170-176.
Power Systems, Val. 9, NO 3, AUQ. 1994, pp. 1 6 1 0 - 1 617.
11. "Monte Carlo simulation applied to distribution feeder
8. "Generating unit commitment in composite generation and reliability evaluation"; L. Goel, R. Billinton. Electric Power
transmission systems"; M.E. Khan, R . Billinton. Proc. IEE, System Research Journal, Vol. 29, No. 3, 1994, pp. 193-
140 Part C , Sept. 1993, pp. 404-41 0. 202.

9. "Generating system operating health analysis considering 12. "Reliability modeling and evaluation of HVDC power
standby units, interruptible load and postponable outages"; transmission systems"; E.N. Dialynas, N.C. Koskolos. IEEE
R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. IEEE Trans. on Power Trans on Power Delivery, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1994, pp. 872-878.
Systems, Vol. 9, No. 3, Aug. 1994, 161 8-1 625.
 55
13. "Application of transmission reliability assessment in results"; G. Tollefson, G. Wacker, R. Billinton, E. Chan, J.
probabilistic planning of B.C. Hydro Vancouver South Metro Aweya. CEA Transactions, 1992.
System"; W. Li, Y. Mansour, J.K. Korozynski, B.J. Mills.
IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 2, May 1995, 2. "Electric service reliability worth evaluation in power
pp. 964-970. systems"; R. Billinton, L. Goel. CEA Transactions, 1992.

14. "Evaluation of reliability indices and outage costs in 3. "Utilization of interrupted energy assessment rates t o
distribution systems"; R.N. Allan, M. G. De Silva. IEEE evaluate reliability worth in electric power systems"; L. Goel,
Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 1, Feb. 1995, pp. R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3,
41 3-41 9. Aug. 1993, pp.929-939.

15. "Minimum cost analysis of station configurations"; J. Satish, 4. " A Canadian customer survey t o assess power system
R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, Vol. 10, No. 4, reliability worth"; G. Tollefson, R. Billinton, G. Wacker, E.
October 1995, pp. 1799-1 805. Chan, J. Aweya. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No.
1, Feb. 1994, pp.443-450.
16. "Evaluating the availability of electrical substations: A
Dynamic Methodology"; E. Bourgade, P. Jourda, R.N. Allan, 5. "Evaluation of reliability worth in composite systems based
96 W M 007-5-PWRD. pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo simulation"; J.C.O. Mello,
M.V.F. Pereira, A.M. Leite Da Silva. IEEE Trans. on Power
17. "Reliability evaluation of distribution systems with non- Systems, Vol. 9, No. 3, Aug. 1994, pp. 1318-1326.
exponential down times"; s. Asgarpoor, M.J. Mathine, 96
W M 325-1-PWRS. 6. "Customer requirements for electric service reliability: An
NSERC study"; R. Billinton, G. Wacker, G. Tollefson, J.
18. "Distribution system reliability assessment: momentary Aweya, E. Chan. CEA Transactions, 1993.
interruptions and storms"; R.E. Brown, S. Gupta, R.D.
Christie, S.S. Venkata, 96 S M 419-2-PWRD. 7. "Understanding industrial losses resulting from electric
service interruptions"; R.K. Subramaniam, R. Billinton, G.
19. "Development of reliability targets for planning transmission Wacker. IEEE Trans. on Industry Application, Vol. 29, No. 1,
facilities using probabilistic techniques - a utility approach"; JanuarylFebruary 1993, pp. 238-244.
S.K. Agarwal, GW.V. Torre, 96 S M 481-2-PWRS.
8. "Customer costs associated with electrical supply failures";
EQUIPMENT OUTAGE DATA R. Billinton, G. Wacker, G. Tollefson. CEA Transactions,
1993.
1. "Current industry practices in bulk transmission outage data
collection and analysis"; R.O. Gunderson, M.P. Bhavaraju, R. 9. "A minimum cost assessment method for composite
Billinton, D. Klempel, M.A. Klopp, M.G. Lauby, R.P. Ludorf, generation and transmission system expansion planning"; W.
M.F. McCoy, T.C. Mielnik, A.W. Schneider, E.P.Weber, T.S. Li, R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No.
White. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 7, No. 1, Feb. 2, May 1993, pp. 628-635.
1992, pp. 158-1 66.
10. "Understanding commercial losses resulting from electric
2. " A n IEEE survey of US and Canadian overhead transmission services interruptions"; R.K. Subramaniam, R. Billinton, G.
outages at 230 k V and above"; R.B. Adler (Chairman) IEEE Wacker. IEEE Trans. on Industry Application, Vol. 29, No. 1,
Working Group. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, Vol. 9, No. JanuarylFebruary 1993, 233-237.
1, Jan. 1994, pp. 21-39.
11. "Comparison of alternative techniques for evaluating the
3. "Update on the disturbance performance of bulk electricity marginal outage costs of generating systems", R. Ghajar, R.
systems"; B.K. LeReverend, R.P.Towstego, CIGRE Working Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 4, Nov.
Group 39.05, Electra, No.143, August 1992, pp.87-100. 1993, pp. 1550-1 556.

4. "Sensitivity analysis of reliability indices with respect to 12. "Assessment of electric service reliability worth"; R. Billinton,
equipment failure and repair rates"; A.C.G. Melo, M.V.F. G. Tollefson, G. Wacker. International Journal of Electrical
Pereira. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 2, May Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 15, No. 2, April 1993, pp.
1995, pp. 1014-1021. 95-100.

5. "Pooling generating unit data for improved estimates of 13. "Determination of reliability worth for distribution system
performance indices"; IEEE Committee Report, Chairman planning"; L. Goel, R Billinton. IEEE Trans. on Power
A.M. Breipohl. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. Delivery, Vol. 9, No. 3, July 1994, pp. 1577-1 583.
4, NOV. 1995, pp. 1912-1917.
14. "Uncertainty considerations in the pool purchase price in the
6. "Update on the disturbance performance of bulk electricity England and Wales electricity supply industry"; R.N. Allan, H.
systems"; B.K. LeReverend, R.P. Towstego, Electra (CIGRE), Navarro Sanchez. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, 1994, pp. 125-1 32.
NO. 143, pp. 87-100.
15. "Electricity restriction costs"; A.G. Massaud, M.Th. Schilling,
RELIABILITY COSTNVORTH ANALYSIS J.P. Hernandez. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, 1994, pp. 299-304.

1. "NSERC customer cost of interruption study - preliminary 16. "Prediction of customer load point service reliability worth
56

estimates in an electric power system"; L. Goel, R. Billinton. Allan. Proc. IEE, 143 Part C, March 1996, pp. 163-170.
Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, 1994, pp. 390-396.
31. "Evaluation of reliability worth and value of lost load"; K.K.
17. "Evaluation of reliability worth in an electric power system"; Kariuki, R.N. Allan. Proc. IEE, 143 Part C, March 1996, pp.
R. Billinton. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 46, 171-180.
1994, pp. 15-23.
32. "Application of customer outage costs in system planning,
18. "Electric power system customer interruption cost design and operation"; K.K. Kariuki, R.N. Allan. Proc. IEE -
assessment"; C;. Wacker, G. Tollefson. Reliability Engineering Gener. Transm. Distrib., 1996, 143Part C, pp. 305-31 2.
and System Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 75-81.
33. "Balancing cost and reliability: a quantitative study at
19. "Utilisation of quantitative reliability concepts in evaluating Atlantic Electric"; V. Udo, S.K. Agarwal, A. Vojdani, M.I.
the marginal outage costs of electric generating systems"; R. Harlacher. IEEE Paper, 96 S M 473-9 PWRS.
Ghajar, R. Billinton. Reliability Engineering and System
Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 93-100. 34. "Adequacy and reliability cost/worth implications of non
utility generation"; R. Billinton, S. Adzanu. IEE Proc. Gener.
20. "Evaluation of marginal outage costs of generating systems Transm. Distrib., Vol. 143, No. 1, Jan. 1996, pp. 115-122.
for the purposes of spot pricing"; R. Billinton, R. Ghajar.
IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 35. "Impacts of demand side management on reliability
68-75. costheliability worth analysis"; R. Billinton, D. Lakhanpal.
IEE Proc. Gener. Transm. Distrib., Vol. 143, No. 3, May
21. "Evaluation of the marginal outage costs in composite 1996, pp. 225-231.
generation and transmission systems"; R. G hajar, R. Billinton.
Electric Power System Research Journal, Vol. 31, No. 2, GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
1994, pp. 79-86.
1. "Reliability differentiated real time pricing of electricity"; S.N.
22. "Effects of adverse weather conditions and higher order Siddiqui, M.L. Baughman. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems,
outages on customer interruption costs in electric Vol. 8, No. 2, May 1993, pp. 548-554.
subtransmission systems"; L. Goel. R. Billinton, R. Gupta.
Electric Power Systems Research Journal, Vol. 31, No. 3, 2. "Effect of HVDC component enhancement on the overall
1994, pp. 195-202. system reliability performance"; S. Kuruganry. IEEE Trans.
on Power Delivery, Vol. 9, No. 1, Jan. 1994, pp. 343-351.
23. "Probabilitydistribution approach t o describe customer costs
due to electric supply interruptions"; R. Billinton, E. Chan, G . 3. "Overall adequacy assessment of an electric power system";
Wacker. Proc. IEE, 141 Part C, Nov. 1994, pp. 594-598. R. Billinton, L. Goel. Proc. IEE, 139 Part C, 1992, pp.57-63.

24. "Value based distribution reliability assessment and 4. "Probabilistic methods applied to electric power systems -
planning"; R.L. Chen, K. Allen, R. Billinton. IEEE Trans. on are they worth it"; R.N. Allan, R. Billinton. IEE Power
Power Delivery, Vol. IO, No. 1, Jan. 1995, pp. 421-429. Engineering Journal, 6, May 1992, pp.121-129.

25. "Evaluation of the marginal outage costs in interconnected 5. "Power system reliability and its assessment. Part 1,
and composite power systems"; R . Ghajar, R. Billinton. IEEE Background and generating capacity"; R.N.Allan, R.Billinton.
Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 2, May 1995, pp. IEE Power Engineering Journal, 6, July 1992, pp.191-198.
753-7 59.
6. "Power system reliability and its assessment. Part 2,
26. "Cost-benefit analysis of power system reliability: t w o utility Composite generation and transmission systems"; R.N.Allan,
cases"; E.G. Neudorf, D.L. Kiguel, G.A. Hamoud, B. Porretta, R.Billinton. IEE Power Engineering Journal, 6, Nov. 1992, pp.
W.M. Stephenson, R.W. Sparks, D.M. Logan, M.P. 29 1-297.
Bhavaraju, R. Billinton, D.L. Garrison. IEEE Trans. on Power
Systems, Vol. 10, No. 3, Aug. 1995, pp. 1667-1 675. 7. "Power system reliability and its assessment. Part 3,
Distribution systems and economic considerations"; R.N.
27. "Value-based reliability transmission planning"; J.G. Dalton, Allan, R. Billinton. IEE Power Engineering Journal, 7, Aug.
D.L. Garrison, C.M. Fallon. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1993, pp. 185-192.
Vol. 11, Nc. 3, Aug. 1996, pp. 1400-1408.
8. "Power system reliability assessment - a conceptual and
28. "Interruption costs, customer satisfaction and expectations historical review"; R.N. Allan. Reliability Engineering and
for service reliability"; M. Sullivan, T. Vardell, N. Suddeth, A. System Safety, 46, 1994, pp. 3-13.
Vojdani. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 11, No. 2,
May 1996, pp. 989-995. 9. "Hierarchical power system reliability evaluation using the
Canadian Electrical Association data base"; R. Billinton, J.
29. "Distributed nature of residential customer outage costs"; R. Satish, R. Ghajar. CEA Transactions, 1994.
Ghajar, R. Billinton, E. Chan. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems,
Vol. 11, NO. 3, Aug. 1996, pp. 1236-1 244. 10. " A system state transition sampling technique for reliability
evaluation"; R. Billinton, A. Sankarakrishnan. Reliability
30. "Assessment of customer outage costs due t o electric Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 44, No. 2, 1994, pp.
service interruptions: residential sector"; K.K. Kariuki, R.N. 131-134.
 57
1 1. "Pertinent factors in the adequacy evaluation of an overall BIOGRAPHIES
electric power system"; L. Goel, R. Billinton. Proc. IEE, 1 4 2
Part C, July 1995, pp. 337-342. Ron Allan is Professor of Electrical Energy Systems at UMIST,
Manchester, England. He is a Chartered Engineer in the UK.
12. "Experience with application of reliability and value of service
analysis in system planning"; A.F. Vojani, R.D. Williams, W. Roy Billinton i s Professor of Electrical Engineering and Associate
Gambel, W. Li, L. Eng, B.N. Suddeth. IEEE Trans. on Power Dean, Graduate Studies, Research and Extension, College of
Systems, Vol. 11, No. 3, Aug. 1996, pp. 1489-1496. Engineering at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. He is a
registered Professional Engineer in the Province of Saskatchewan.
13. "Modelling multistate problems in sequential simulation of
power system reliability studies"; M.R. Bhuiyan, R.N. Allan. Art Breipohl is the Oklahoma Gas & Electric Professor of Electrical
Proc. IEE, 1995, 1 4 2 Part C, pp. 343-349. and Computer Engineering at the University of Oklahoma, Norman,
OK. He is a registered Professional Engineer in the States of
14. "An integrated approach to power system reliability Oklahoma & Kansas.
assessment"; M. Th. Schilling, M.B. DoCoutto Filho, A.M.
Leite da Silva, R. Billiinton, R.N. Allan. Journal of Electric Cliff Grigg is Professor of Electrical & Computer Engineering at
Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 17, No. 6, Dec. 1995, pp. Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, Terre Haute, IN. He is a
381-390. registered Professional Engineer in the Province of Ontario.

15. "A new reliability for redundant protective systems - Markov

models"; P.M. Anderson, R.F. Ghajar, G.M. Chintaluri, S.M. CONCLUSIONS
Magbuhat, 9 6 W M 324-4-PWRS.
In compiling any bibliography of related publications, it is not
16. "Effect of rotational load shedding on overall power system possible to make it absolutely complete. The RRPA Subcommittee
adequacy indices"; R. Billinton, J. Satish. Proc. IEE, 1 4 3 would like to apologize for any errors or omissions and hope that
Part C, March 1996, pp. 181-187. additional references will be advanced as discussion to this
publication.
17. "Well-being analysis for HVDC transmission systems"; R.
Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad. IEEE Paper, 9 6
S M 559-5 PWRS.

18. "A test system for teaching overall power system reliability
assessment"; R. Billinton, S. Jonnavithula. IEEE Winter
Power Meeting, Paper No. 9 6 W M 056-2.