Commodity Market Monthly

Research Department, Commodities Unit

June 9, 20171 www.imf.org/commodities [email protected]

Commodity prices fell 2.3 percent in May 2017 Figure 2
(Figure 1). This decrease was largely driven by Crude Oil Daily Prices
the decline in the energy and metal price ($/barrel)

indices, which fell 4.5 percent and 3.9 percent 70

Brent Dubai WTI

respectively. This offset the 3.5 percent

60
increase in the food and beverage index.
50

Figure 1 40
IMF Commodity Price Indices
(2005 = 100) 30

Non-Energy Total Energy 20

220 Jan-15 Jul-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Mar-17
200
180
Oil prices rebounded in the middle of May as the
160
140
market priced in the extension of OPEC
120
production cut through March 2018. The
100 extension beyond the end of this year was a
80 surprise. However, oil prices have since decreased
60 amid continued U.S. supply growth and strong
40 export from OPEC to the U.S despite weak import
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
demand in the U.S. (Figure 3).

Figure 3
Energy
U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products

Monthly average crude oil prices decreased 4.4 12

mb/d

Imports from OPEC

percent in May to $49.91 per barrel (bbl). During 10
the month of May (from the end of April to the US 'NET' imports
8
end of May), Average Petroleum Spot Price 6
(simple average of U.K. Brent, Dubai Fateh, and 4
West Texas Intermediate; APSP) decreased 1.7 2
percent. (Figure 2). Since then, it has declined
0
further in response to massive build-ups of the 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. petroleum inventories.

1
Fan charts are based on the closing price of June 5, 2017.

1
The resolution of outage in Canada and Libya also
adds more supply. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration has revised its supply forecast for Figure 5
2017 again in its June 6 report. It expects that the Day's Oil Future Curves
($/barrel)
U.S. crude oil production will reach 10 million 75
barrels per day (mb/d). The U.S. data indicates Brent WTI
70
little sign of rebalancing as massive commercial 65
inventories built up right after the Memorial Day 60

weekend. (Figure 4) 55
50

Figure 4 45

U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil and 40

Petroleum Products, Weekly 35

2 14 26 38 50 62
U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Months to expiration

Crude Oil and Petroleum Products,

Weekly
Average monthly natural gas prices at Henry Hub
1.38
in the U.S. increased by 1.4 percent to an average
Billions Barrels

1.36 of $3.12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)

in May from an average of $3.08/MMBtu in April.
1.34
Daily prices decreased 5.4 percent to $3.00 at the
1.32 end of May from $3.17 at the end of April. In
1.30
Europe, average monthly natural gas prices
(converted to USD) at the Title Transfer Facility
1.28
(TTF Netherland), our new benchmark for natural
2016 2017
gas prices in Europe, have increased by 0.6
U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude
percent to $5.07/MMBtu in May although from
Oil and Petroleum Products, Weekly
the end of April to the end of May, TTF prices
Source: The U.S. Energy Information decreased 4.6 percent. Average monthly natural
Administration gas prices in Asia, which are derived from LNG
benchmark prices (Source: Argus Media Group) in
Futures contracts point to oil prices (APSP) North East Asia, are almost unchanged in May
staying almost flat at $49.67 in 2017 (compared (+0.2%).
to the current IMF baseline of $51.92) and $49.29
in 2018 (compared to current IMF baseline of Coal prices in Australia have decreased by 11.1
$52.00). Future curves are very gradually percent in May. Coal prices in South Africa
increasing for the next 5 years. (Figure 5.) decreased by 6.2 percent as recent Chinese
economic data show a slowdown in commodity
demand.

2
 Box Impact on energy market
Dispute of Qatar and GCC countries Geopolitical tension in the region supports
energy prices in general, given the possibility of
Four countries cut diplomatic ties with Qatar disruptions in production and transportation of
The governments of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the natural gas or crude oil. However, such a
United Arab Emirates, and Egypt announced that disruption is unlikely in this case. Qatar is the
they will suspend air and sea travel to and from largest exporter of LNG and many Asian countries
Qatar because of its alleged support of terrorist rely on its export.
groups aiming to destabilize the region,
including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State In the short run, LNG cargo from Qatar to Egypt
and al-Qaeda. Qatar admits support for some and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) can be
Islamist movements, such as the Muslim diverted elsewhere, thus Egypt and UAE would
Brotherhood (political organization calling for a need to find alternative suppliers. In theory, this
society based on Islamic law) and Hamas (the would not have a significant impact as both sides
militant Palestinian group), but denies backing have alternatives, but given the low demand in
terrorism. The action was unexpected and it is Middle East, it may have a slight downward
unclear how long it will last. pressure on the Northeast Asia spot LNG market
where Qatar cargoes are expected to divert.
Background of dispute
The dispute intensified in late May when the
official Qatar News Agency ran a report quoting Metals
the Emir of Qatar making favorable comments
about Iran and criticizing President Trump's The IMF base metal index, comprised of 8 base
hardline policy towards Tehran. While Qatar said metals (Table 1), fell 3.9 percent in May. Most
the news agency had been hacked, and that the base metals fell in May, with iron ore leading the
report quoting the emir was "fake news," some of group with the steepest decline (-13.5%). Nickel
Qatar's neighbors did not buy that explanation and lead also fell significantly, by 4.9 and 4.6
percent respectively. Tin was the exception
and blocked its media, including Al Jazeera.
(+1.5%), while aluminum was relatively stable
(-0.3%).
Qatar has been relatively independent among
Gulf Cooperation Council pursuing its own
The recent fall in metal prices can be attributed to
agenda as its relationship with Iran is complex. It
Chinas efforts to rein in its shadow banking
shares the largest gas field in the world, South
sector. Much credit from off-balance sheet
Pars, with Iran. Thanks to that field, the tiny state
lending has gone to the metal sector through
has become the world's leading exporter of LNG. wealth management products. With the
Relations between Qatar and other Gulf states tightening of credit, Chinas economy and its
cooled in 2014 over Qatar's foreign policy and its metal demand have been slowing. Its
links to the Muslim Brotherhood. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI), which fell to 51.2 in April, held steady in
May. While Chinas efforts to tighten credit in
2017 were widely expected, the regulatory
measures introduced by the government were

3
more of a surprise. Last month, Chinas banking of this production interruption is likely to be
regulator issued rules mandating banks to be short-lived and limited. A total of 180 million MT
more transparent. These ongoing efforts are of low-cost supply of iron ore is expected to reach
expected to continue sapping demand for metals the market in the next four years keeping prices
in the second half of 2017. low.

In the US, President Trump has designated the Figure 6

week of June 5 as Infrastructure Week, with a Select Metal Indices, 2017
series of events hosted by the White House. (January 1 = 100)
However, it is unlikely to have any significant
Copper Aluminum
effects on metal market fundamentals given the
Nickel Iron Ore
relatively small presence of the US in metal
markets. 120
110
Table 1
100
Current Base Metal Prices and % changes
90
(as of May 31, 2017)
80
Metal Price ($) % change
70
Month- Year-to-
1-Jan 20-Feb 11-Apr 31-May
on-Month Date
Copper 5,658/MT -1.5 2.4
Aluminum 1,926/MT -0.3 13.0
Tin 20,435/MT 1.5 -3.6 Next to iron ore, nickel has been the worst
8,922/MT -4.9 -10.5 performing industrial metal this year. Nickel
Nickel
2,587/MT -1.2 1.1
prices fell 4.9 percent in May and 10.5 percent
Zinc
year-to-date, down to its lowest point in 11
Lead 2,099/MT -4.6 5.0
months ($8,922/MT). The recent downward trend
Iron Ore 58.0/MT -13.5 -27.5
in nickel prices is driven by increasing supply from
Uranium 19.8/lb -7.3 -3.2
Indonesia and the Philippines, which together
Sources: London Metal Exchange (Copper,
accounted for almost 30 percent of global mine
aluminum, tin, nickel, zinc, and lead); DataStream
production in 2016. Indonesia has lifted its export
CIF China United States (FE63.5%, iron ore); and
New York Mercantile Exchange (uranium). ban on ores, granting licenses to PT Aneka
Tambang and Freeport. The Philippines
Iron ore prices have continued their downward environmental minister, who had been
trend, falling 27.5 percent year-to-date to reach responsible for the recent spate of mine closures
$58 per metric ton (MT). The market is (affecting 10% of the global nickel supply), was
contending with a stockpile of lower-grade iron fired early May.
ore in China, as the climbing steel prices lead
manufacturers to use a higher-grade iron ore. Copper prices have increased 2.4 percent since
Last Friday, iron ore prices briefly rebounded on January to reach $5,658/MT. The ongoing strike
news of a blaze at BHP Billitons mine in Western at Freeports Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia
Australia. One of the largest iron ore mines in the was extended beyond May 30 for a second
world, BHPs Mt Whaleback mine produced 43 month. This strike was in response to Freeport
million MT of iron ore last year. The market effect laying off 10 percent of its workers last month, to
cut costs amid a contract dispute with the

4
Indonesian government. Ongoing supply year in 2017/2018, prices jumped, but fell back
disruptions adds support to prices. However, somewhat later during the month as it became
concerns about Chinas economy slowing puts clear that the impact of the US snowstorm
downward pressure on prices. remained limited. While global supplies are
expected to fall slightly to 737.8 million metric
tons (mmt), the second highest level ever, global
Aluminum prices have outperformed other base
ending stocks are projected to increase to a
metals in 2017, rising 13 percent since January to
record of 258 mmt, up almost 3 mmt from
reach $1,926/MT. The main driver behind this 2016/2017, on account of reduced feed use and
price surge has been expectations of lower weaker exports. Furthermore, as the cumulative
supply. Chinas policy of reducing production net short in wheat held by hedge funds at the end
capacity of aluminum has spurred its price of May continues to be the highest on record,
increase. Most of the recent price increase further increases in prices are likely if risks of
occurred during the first quarter, with prices negative weather shocks in key producer
relatively stable in May. countries were to materialize.

After falling almost 15 percent between February

and April 2017, the price of palm oil increased for
Agriculture
the first time in four months on account of
stronger export demand in South-East Asia,
In May 2017, the IMF price index of food, increasing by 5.2 percent, month-on-month, in
beverages and agricultural raw materials May 2017. Despite this months price spike, the
increased for the first time in four months by 2.0 outlook for palm oil for the remainder of the year
percent, with strong gains in the index of food is bearish. After last years El Nio induced crunch,
and beverages (+3.5%) partially offset by losses in output in top producing countries Indonesia and
the index of raw materials (-2.3%). Prices of Malaysia is expected to increase, while demand
agricultural commodities increased across the for palm oil exhibits weaker growth due to the
board, with strong gains for the indices of meat, availability of other competitive vegetable oils. As
seafood and cereals, which increased by 7.1, 6.7, of May 2017, Malaysian palm oil futures curves
and 4.2 percent respectively, and a more modest remain in backwardation, indicating that market
gain for the index of vegetable oils, which participants expect supplies to grow in the near
increased by 1.8 percent. As for individual foreseeable future.
commodities, the large gain for pork (+14.5%) is
particularly noteworthy, while wheat (+5.8%), The price of beef increased by 3.9 percent in May
palm oil (+5.2%) and beef (+3.9%) also recorded 2017. This constitutes the fifth consecutive month
substantial gains. Oranges (-10.9%), hides (-8.0%), of rising prices, and the total gain since December
sugar (-4.4%), and coffee (-3.0%) experienced 2016 now stands at more than 15 percent. Lower
substantial losses. cattle slaughter weight, resulting from higher-
than-usual supply of cattle from feedlots in
With the price of wheat increasing by 5.8 percent previous months is contributing to weaker
in May 2017, the price rally that started at the end growth of supply in the U.S. Meanwhile, demand
of last year with cumulative gains of 19 percent for red meat has been stronger than expected.
between January and March 2017, maybe back on Indicative of this strong demand is that US
track. Following an early May snowstorm in the exports increased by 70 percent week-on-week in
US that affected the Midwestern plain states, and the week ending May 25, 2017.
a projection by the United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA) on May 10, 2017 that US Lean hog prices increased by 14.5 percent in May
supply of wheat would fall by 9 percent year-on- 2017, the first increase in three months. The price

5
increase comes mostly on account of a strong Figure 7. Corn, wheat and soybean prices
seasonal demand in the run-up to the summer (January 1, 2016=100)
and strong export demand that is outpacing
Corn Wheat Soybeans
growing supply. In the medium run, new hog
processing plants will put downward pressures on 140
prices. In the long-run, market access to China, 130
where modernization of the industry under 120
influence of stricter environmental regulation is 110
limiting growth, is key. 100
90
The price of Arabica coffee decreased by 3.0 80
percent in May 2017. This loss is mostly due to a 70
weaker Brazilian Real. According to several 60

Jul-16
Jun-16

Jun-17
Apr-16
May-16

Aug-16
Sep-16

Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17

Apr-17
May-17
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16

Feb-17
Mar-17
Oct-16
observers, the outlook for coffee is mostly bullish.
A global economic growth rate of 3.5 percent in
2017 suggests higher coffee consumption in
Sources: United States Department of Agriculture
emerging markets, especially in China. Demand
(corn, wheat), Chicago Board of Trade (soybeans); staff
has been stronger in more mature markets,
including the European Union and Japan. On the calculations
supply side, Brazilian Arabica output is expected
to decrease by 11 percent in 2017, from 51.4
million bags in 2016 to 45.6 million bags this year.
It should be noted that this years crop is the
lower-yielding half of a regular 2-year harvest
cycle.

The price of corn increased by 1.8 percent in May

2017. Weather during the next three summer
months will be important in determining the
yield of the upcoming US corn crop. In addition,
as soybeans were outperforming corn before the
2017 planting season got underway, chances are
that US farmers planted less corn and more
soybean in 2017 compared to 2016. Recent
USDA reports support this view. In the May
WASDE, the USDA forecasted global corn ending
stocks for the 2017/2018 season to decline by
28.6 mmt to 195 mmt. After four years of
bumper crops, and with global demand for
grains continuing to grow, the outlook for corn
now appears to be more bullish.

6
 Figure 8
May Commodity Prices Changes
(percent from previous month)
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Swine
Fish (Salmon)
Poultry
Rice
Wheat
Olive Oil
Palm Oil
Beef
Lamb
Wool, Coarse
Soybeans Oil
Tea
Barley
Fish Meal
Sawnwood Hard
Wool, Fine
Cotton
Bananas
Tin
Groundnuts
Corn
Natural Gas, US
Rapeseed Oil
Cocoa
Sunflower Oil
Soybeans
Natural gas, EU
Shrimp
Aluminum
Soybean Meal
Zinc
Copper
Rubber
Coffee, Arabica
Lead
Sugar
Crude Oil
Coffee, Robustas
Nickel
Gasoline
Uranium
Hides
Orange
Coal, Australia
Iron Ore

7
Table 1. Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities
Units 2014 2015 2016 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Apr-17 May-17

Food
Cereals
Wheat $/MT 242.5 185.6 143.2 159.2 128.2 122.6 143.6 138.4 146.5
Maize $/MT 192.9 169.8 159.2 171.1 153.4 152.2 160.6 156.4 158.6
Rice $/MT 426.5 380.0 388.3 401.8 418.2 365.3 369.6 374.5 402.3
Barley $/MT 146.1 127.9 129.4 137.4 131.1 129.3 135.2 138.8 142.1
Vegetable oils and protein meals
Soybeans $/MT 457.8 347.4 362.7 387.8 372.2 367.3 375.5 347.9 350.2
Soybean meal $/MT 467.0 352.7 350.2 392.9 370.0 342.9 364.3 342.6 341.0
Soybean oil $/MT 812.7 672.2 721.2 719.7 701.4 776.6 746.1 695.3 714.1
Palm oil $/MT 739.4 565.1 639.8 647.8 647.0 677.7 698.9 623.2 655.5
Fish meal $/MT 1921.5 1759.2 1418.5 1511.5 1409.7 1286.2 1139.7 1094.7 1120.5
Sunflower Oil $/MT 1080.3 1022.2 1009.7 1028.6 982.0 1003.7 961.5 940.0 949.8
Olive oil $/MT 3780.6 4292.8 3978.5 3897.5 3982.3 3948.3 4336.9 4389.0 4635.6
Groundnuts $/MT 2148.3 1946.2 1798.3 1855.4 1804.7 1711.8 1836.6 1848.0 1874.5
Rapeseed oil $/MT 904.4 774.6 822.0 797.7 810.6 904.7 876.5 823.0 833.5
Meat
Beef cts/lb 224.1 200.5 178.2 179.3 185.4 179.3 183.8 192.9 200.4
Lamb cts/lb 130.6 107.9 106.9 100.6 110.8 120.8 124.7 134.5 139.3
Swine Meat cts/lb 102.8 67.9 62.4 72.6 66.6 50.1 67.2 59.6 68.3
Poultry cts/lb 110.1 114.7 111.5 111.8 110.9 111.1 117.6 130.7 140.6
Seafood
Fish $/kg 6.6 5.3 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.9 7.4 8.0
Shrimp $/kg 16.6 14.1 11.0 10.6 10.7 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.1
Sugar
Free market cts/lb 17.1 13.2 18.5 17.6 20.8 20.9 19.6 16.4 15.7
United States cts/lb 24.9 24.8 27.0 26.4 27.2 28.9 29.7 28.7 28.4
EU cts/lb 27.4 25.4 22.5 23.9 21.8 20.7 20.6 21.0 21.5
Bananas $/MT 931.9 958.7 1002.4 993.0 1023.2 965.4 1029.8 1063.5 1083.1
Oranges $/MT 782.5 675.0 889.1 784.7 992.5 1093.1 919.6 849.4 756.8
Beverages
Coffee
Other milds cts/lb 202.8 160.5 164.5 158.5 173.6 175.3 164.3 155.9 151.2
Robusta cts/lb 105.6 94.2 94.3 90.4 98.5 106.1 110.5 106.2 101.5
Cocoa Beans $/MT 3062.8 3135.2 2892.0 3099.9 2987.9 2499.6 2097.4 1961.2 1983.2
Tea cts/kg 237.9 340.4 287.4 251.4 284.7 323.4 369.2 362.1 371.5
Agricultural raw materials
Timber
Hardwood
Logs 1/ $/M3 282.0 246.0 274.4 275.7 290.7 272.8 261.8 270.3 265.3
Sawnwood 1/ $/M3 897.9 833.3 738.9 782.3 716.2 676.8 674.9 688.4 704.5
Softwood
Logs 1/ $/M3 174.3 162.0 156.8 143.5 151.7 163.7 162.6 160.1 160.1
Sawnwood 1/ $/M3 307.3 308.7 297.1 309.2 307.6 304.7 299.8 300.4 300.4
Cotton cts/lb 83.1 70.4 74.2 71.2 79.7 79.0 84.8 87.0 88.6
Wool
Fine cts/kg 1074.4 1005.8 1112.0 1092.8 1140.3 1191.4 1371.0 1405.0 1433.2
Coarse cts/kg 1034.6 927.8 1016.4 1009.0 1082.2 1015.1 1039.0 991.1 1020.0
Rubber cts/lb 88.8 70.7 74.5 75.2 76.1 87.3 115.4 101.2 98.6
Hides cts/lb 110.2 87.7 74.1 73.5 74.2 75.9 76.5 75.4 69.4
1/ Provisional.
2/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted.

8
Table 1. Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities (Continued)
Units 2014 2015 2016 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Apr-17 May-17
Metals
Copper $/MT 6863.4 5510.5 4867.9 4736.4 4779.6 5280.8 5840.0 5683.9 5599.6
Aluminum $/MT 1867.4 1664.7 1604.2 1571.8 1620.2 1710.3 1851.2 1921.2 1913.0
Iron Ore $/MT 97.4 56.1 58.6 56.4 58.6 70.8 85.6 70.4 61.6
Tin $/MT 21898.9 16066.6 17933.8 16902.1 18584.3 20810.1 20004.5 19910.3 20200.3
Nickel $/MT 16893.4 11862.6 9595.2 8822.5 10263.5 10787.0 10273.1 9609.3 9155.1
Zinc $/MT 2161.0 1931.7 2090.0 1916.9 2251.6 2514.2 2779.1 2614.9 2590.2
Lead $/MT 2095.5 1787.8 1866.7 1717.6 1872.7 2138.3 2278.3 2220.6 2125.1
Uranium $/lb 33.5 36.8 26.3 27.5 25.5 19.6 23.9 23.2 21.6
Energy
Spot Crude 2/ $/bbl 96.2 50.8 42.8 44.8 44.7 49.1 53.0 52.2 49.9
U.K. Brent $/bbl 98.9 52.4 44.0 46.0 45.8 50.1 54.1 53.1 50.9
Dubai $/bbl 96.7 51.2 41.2 42.9 43.4 47.9 52.9 52.4 50.3
West Texas Intermediate $/bbl 93.1 48.7 43.2 45.5 44.9 49.2 51.8 51.2 48.6
Natural Gas
Russian in Germany $/mmbtu 10.5 7.3 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.8 5.0 5.1
Indonesian in Japan (LNG) $/mmbtu 17.0 11.0 7.4 6.9 7.4 7.4 7.4 5.7 5.7
US, domestic market $/mmbtu 4.4 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1
Coal
Australian, export markets $/MT 75.7 62.7 70.1 55.1 70.7 100.3 87.9 90.1 80.1
1/ Provisional.
2/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted.

Table 2. Indices of Market Prices for Non-Fuel and Fuel Commodities, 2014-2016
(2005=100, in terms of U.S. dollars) 1/

(weights) 1/ 2014 2015 2016 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Apr-17 May-17
All Primary Commodities 2/ 100.0 171.9 111.3 100.1 101.4 102.7 109.7 116.7 113.2 110.6
Non-Fuel Commodities 36.9 162.3 134.0 131.5 132.8 133.4 135.9 143.8 138.4 138.8
Agriculture 26.2 161.5 136.9 136.3 139.8 138.6 137.1 142.2 137.9 140.6
Food 16.7 170.1 140.8 143.8 149.2 145.9 143.9 150.6 145.2 151.0
Cereals 3.6 180.2 149.0 131.4 142.0 126.4 120.6 131.3 128.8 134.2
Vegetable oils and protein meals 4.4 190.5 152.8 155.9 163.8 158.6 158.0 161.3 150.8 153.5
Meat 3.7 160.5 137.4 126.6 131.4 130.9 121.9 133.3 137.5 147.2
Seafood 3.2 162.0 131.7 161.6 164.8 163.0 169.5 178.8 169.7 181.0
Beverages 1.8 178.0 172.6 163.9 163.5 169.8 163.8 156.0 148.7 147.1
Agricultural raw materials 3/ 7.7 138.8 120.1 113.3 113.7 115.5 116.3 120.8 119.3 116.6
Timber 3.4 109.3 104.5 100.2 103.0 101.6 99.4 97.9 98.8 99.1
Metals 10.7 164.4 126.6 119.7 115.6 120.6 132.9 147.8 139.9 134.4

Edibles 4/ 18.5 170.9 143.9 145.8 150.6 148.2 145.8 151.1 145.6 150.6
Industrial Inputs 5/ 18.4 153.7 123.9 117.0 114.8 118.5 125.9 136.5 131.2 126.9

Energy 6/ 63.1 177.5 98.0 81.7 83.0 84.7 94.4 100.8 98.4 94.0
Petroleum 7/ 53.6 181.1 95.6 80.4 84.1 84.0 92.2 99.6 98.2 93.9
Natural Gas 6.9 159.9 106.8 70.0 64.1 69.3 73.1 82.3 70.5 70.9
Coal 2.6 150.7 123.5 138.4 110.6 139.8 195.0 174.3 175.5 157.7
1/ Weights based on 2002-2004 average world export earnings.
2/ Non-Fuel Primary Commodities and Energy Index.
3/ Includes Forestry Products.
4/ Edibles comprised of Food and Beverages
5/ Industrial (Non-Fuel) Inputs comprised of Agriculture and Metals
6/ Includes Petroleum, Natural Gas and Coal
7/ Average Petroleum Spot Price (APSP). Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate, equally weighted.

9
 Commodity Prices Movements
Monthly (from 2005) Daily (from 2011)
Crude oil ($/bbl) Crude oil ($/bbl)
150
140 Brent
Brent
125
115

100
90

75 WTI 65
WTI

50 40

25 15
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Natural Gas ($/mmbtu)

20

15

15 Japan
Germany
10
10
Germany

United States 5 United States

5

0 0
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Sources: Energy Intelligence; Bloomberg , L.P. Source: Bloomberg , L.P.
Iron Ore ($/ton) Iron Ore ($/ton)
200
195
175
170
150
145
125
120
100
95
75
70
50

25 45

0 20
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
10
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Monthly (from 2005) Daily (from 2011)
Copper ($/ton) Copper ($/ton)
11000
9500
10000
8500
9000
7500
8000
6500
7000

5500
6000

4500 5000

3500 4000

2500 3000
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Aluminium ($/ton) Aluminium ($/ton)

3500 2900

2700
3000
2500

2500 2300

2100
2000
1900

1700
1500
1500

1000 1300
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Nickel ($/ton) Nickel ($/ton)

60000

50000 26000

40000
21000

30000
16000
20000

11000
10000

0 6000
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
11
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Monthly (from 2005) Daily (from 2011)
Tin ($/ton) Tin ($/ton)
35000 35000

30000
30000
25000

25000
20000

15000
20000

10000
15000
5000

0 10000
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Wheat ($/ton) Wheat ($/ton)

500 400

350
400
300

300 250

200
200
150

100 100
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Corn ($/ton) Corn ($/ton)

350 370

300
320

250
270

200

220
150

170
100

50 120
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Monthly (from 2005) Daily (from 2011)
Cocoa ($/ton) Cocoa ($/ton)
4000 3800

3600
3500
3400

3200
3000
3000

2500 2800

2600
2000
2400

2200
1500
2000

1000 1800
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Coffee (cents/lb) Coffee (cents/lb)

350 350

300
300
250

250
200

150
200

100
150
50

0 100
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Swine (cents/lb) Swine (cents/lb)

140 140

130
120
120
100 110

100
80
90
60
80

40 70

60
20
50

0 40
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
13
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Monthly (from 2005) Daily (from 2011)
Beef (cents/pound) Beef (cents/lb)
275 180

250 170

160
225
150
200
140
175
130
150
120
125
110
100 100

75 90
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Source: Meat & Livestock Australia. Source: Bloomberg , L.P.

Soybeans ($/ton) Soybeans ($/ton)

700
650 650

600
550
550

450 500

450
350
400

350
250
300

150 250
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Cotton (cents/pound) Cotton (cents/lb)

250 250

230

200 210

190

150 170

150

100 130

110

50 90

70

0 50
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
14
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Monthly (from 2005)

Uranium($/lb) Zinc ($/ton)

160
4300
140
3800
120
3300
100
2800
80
2300
60

40 1800

20 1300

0 800
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Coal ($/ton) Logs ($/cubic meter)

200 500

150 400
Hard
Australia
100 300

50 South Africa 200

Soft

0 100
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Rubber ($/lb) Wool (cents/kg)

300 2000

250 1750
Fine
1500
200
1250
150
1000
100 Coarse
750

50 500

0 250
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 15
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Monthly (from 2005)

Rice ($/ton) Bananas ($/ton)

1200 1200

1100
1000 1000

900
800
800

700
600
600

400 500

400

200 300
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Palm Oil ($/ton) Shrimp ($/kg)

1300 20

18
1100
16

900
14

12
700

10
500
8

300 6
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

Sugar (cents/pound) Tea (cents/kg)

30 450

400
25

350
20

300

15
250

10
200

5 150
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
16
 Commodity Prices Movements (Continued)
Daily (from 2011)
Gold ($/troy ounce) Silver ($/troy ounce)
60
1900
50

1700
40

1500
30

1300
20

1100 10

900 0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Platinum ($/ounce) Palladium ($/ounce)

2000 1000

1800 900

1600 800

1400 700

1200 600

1000 500

800 400

600 300
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

17
 Selected CommoditiesMarket Price Outlook and Risks

WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil

(U.S. dollars a barrel)
120 (U.S. dollars a b arrel) 140

120
100

100
80
80
60
60
40
40

20 20

0 0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Natural Gas
(U.S. dollars a MMBtu) Gasoline
8 (U.S. cents a gallon) 375

7
325
6
275
5
225
4
175
3

2 125

1 75

0 25
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Copper Gold
(U.S. cents a pound) 550 (U.S. dollars a troy ounce) 2000

500
1800
450
400 1600

350 1400
300
1200
250
200 1000
150
800
100
50 600
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

18
 Selected CommoditiesMarket Price Outlook and Risks
(concluded)

Corn Coffee
(U.S. cents a bushel) 900 (U.S. cents a pound)
350

800
300
700
250
600
200
500
150
400
100
300

200 50

100 0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Rough Rice Wheat Price
(U.S. cents a hundredweight) 20 (U.S. cents a bushel) 1100

1000
18
900
16
800
14
700
12
600
10
500
8 400

6 300

4 200
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Soybeans Soybean Meal

(U.S. cents a bushel) (U.S. dollars a short ton)
1900 600

1700 550
500
1500
450
1300
400
1100 350

900 300
250
700
200
500
150
300 100
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19
 Options-based Price Thresholds
WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil
(probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel)
Threshold Months Forward Threshold Months Forward
Prices 3 6 9 12 Prices 3 6 9 12
< 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 < 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
< 25 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 < 25 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0
< 30 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.5 < 30 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.5
< 35 0.6 4.3 12.0 14.7 < 35 0.3 4.3 9.0 12.7
< 40 7.7 17.2 28.1 31.2 < 40 4.3 14.3 21.3 26.0
< 45 32.9 40.1 47.9 50.2 < 45 21.3 32.9 39.1 43.2
> 50 33.0 34.9 33.4 32.5 > 50 42.5 43.0 41.2 39.3
> 55 10.9 16.6 19.4 19.5 > 55 13.2 22.2 24.5 24.6
> 60 2.5 6.7 10.3 10.9 > 60 3.2 9.8 13.2 14.3
> 65 0.4 2.4 5.2 5.8 > 65 0.7 3.9 6.6 7.9
> 70 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.0 > 70 0.1 1.5 3.2 4.2

U.S. Natural Gas Gasoline

(probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars an MMBtu) (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a gallon)
Threshold Months Forward Threshold Months Forward
Prices 3 6 9 12 Prices 3 6 9 12
< 1.00 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 < 0.25 0.0 0.0
< 1.50 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.7 < 0.50 0.0 0.0
< 2.00 2.4 8.4 17.4 12.2 < 0.75 0.0 1.2
< 2.50 20.9 24.0 39.3 40.9 < 1.00 1.7 10.1
< 3.00 56.8 47.7 62.4 72.8 < 1.25 19.2 34.6
> 3.50 15.7 26.3 20.5 11.0 > 1.50 44.4 30.4
> 4.00 4.2 10.1 10.5 4.6 > 1.75 15.9 8.8
> 4.50 0.9 3.5 5.3 2.0 > 2.00 4.1 1.9
> 5.00 0.2 1.3 2.7 0.8 > 2.25 0.8 0.4
> 5.50 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 > 2.50 0.1 0.1
> 6.00 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 > 2.75 0.0 0.0

Copper Gold
(probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a troy ounce)
Threshold Months Forward Threshold Months Forward
Prices 3 6 9 12 Prices 3 6 9 12
< 1.00 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 < 700 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
< 1.50 0.1 2.0 5.8 10.1 < 800 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5
< 1.75 1.5 8.6 15.6 21.7 < 900 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5
< 2.00 9.3 21.9 30.2 36.2 < 1000 0.8 1.3 2.6 4.3
< 2.25 28.1 40.0 46.5 51.0 < 1100 6.8 8.5 11.0 12.9
> 2.50 46.5 41.5 38.3 35.8 < 1200 26.2 28.4 30.0 31.4
> 2.75 24.3 26.1 25.8 25.1 > 1300 44.2 43.6 45.0 44.5
> 3.00 10.6 15.2 16.6 17.0 > 1400 19.1 20.0 23.1 23.5
> 3.25 4.0 8.4 10.3 11.3 > 1500 6.1 7.1 9.8 10.6
> 3.50 1.3 4.4 6.2 7.4 > 1600 1.5 1.9 3.6 4.4
> 4.00 0.1 1.1 2.2 3.0 > 1700 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.9

20
 Options-based Price Thresholds (concluded)
Corn Coffee
(probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound)
Threshold Months Forward Threshold Months Forward
Prices 3 6 9 12 Prices 3 6 9 12
< 2.0 4.7 6.4 6.8 5.6 < 0.9 1.2 3.4 4.0 5.7
< 2.5 11.2 14.0 14.5 12.7 <1 4.0 8.4 9.7 13.1
< 3.0 25.9 28.2 27.9 25.0 < 1.1 12.4 19.9 21.4 25.3
< 3.5 49.2 47.3 45.3 41.3 < 1.2 34.5 39.0 38.9 40.9
> 4.0 28.0 33.6 37.2 41.6 > 1.3 34.9 39.1 41.7 42.9
> 4.5 13.6 19.5 23.2 27.2 > 1.4 14.2 21.9 25.7 29.1
> 5.0 6.6 10.9 13.9 16.7 > 1.5 5.6 11.3 14.6 18.6
> 5.5 3.5 6.3 8.4 10.2 > 1.6 2.5 5.9 8.2 11.5
> 6.0 1.9 3.8 5.2 6.3 > 1.7 1.2 3.3 4.7 7.1
> 6.5 1.1 2.4 3.4 4.1 > 1.8 0.6 2.0 2.9 4.4
> 7.0 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.8 > 1.9 0.3 1.2 1.8 2.8

Rough Rice Wheat

(probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a hundredweight) (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel)
Threshold Months Forward Threshold Months Forward
Prices 3 6 9 12 Prices 3 6 9 12
< 0.05 0.0 0.1 < 2.5 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.9
< 0.06 0.0 0.5 < 3.0 0.9 4.8 4.9 5.1
< 0.07 0.0 2.5 < 3.5 8.6 16.8 16.0 15.7
< 0.08 0.2 7.3 < 4.0 30.6 36.2 33.9 32.2
< 0.09 2.0 16.4 > 4.5 40.2 42.6 46.2 49.3
< 0.10 10.1 31.4 > 5.0 17.7 25.1 29.0 32.6
> 0.11 57.8 49.1 > 5.5 6.2 13.5 16.7 20.1
> 0.12 19.8 30.8 > 6.0 1.8 6.7 9.0 11.7
> 0.13 5.9 18.2 > 6.5 0.4 3.1 4.6 6.4
> 0.14 2.0 10.6 > 7.0 0.1 1.4 2.2 3.4
> 0.15 0.7 6.3 > 7.5 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.8

Soybeans Soybean Meal

(probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a short ton)
Threshold Months Forward Threshold Months Forward
Prices 3 6 9 12 Prices 3 6 9 12
<7 0.9 3.4 3.9 5.2 < 200 0.7 6.2 7.4 9.1
< 7.5 2.9 6.9 9.5 11.3 < 225 4.5 15.4 17.0 19.1
<8 7.4 13.6 18.9 20.8 < 250 15.6 29.1 30.6 32.5
< 8.5 17.9 25.8 31.4 32.9 < 275 34.4 45.0 45.9 46.9
<9 40.2 43.9 45.9 46.4 > 300 43.7 39.7 39.5 39.4
> 9.5 32.6 36.8 40.0 40.5 > 325 25.1 26.8 27.3 27.9
> 10 14.4 21.6 27.8 29.0 > 350 12.6 17.2 18.0 19.0
> 10.5 6.2 11.9 18.0 19.7 > 375 5.6 10.5 11.3 12.4
> 11 3.0 6.8 11.1 12.8 > 400 2.2 6.1 6.9 7.9
> 11.5 1.4 4.0 6.5 7.9 > 425 0.8 3.5 4.1 4.9
> 12 0.7 2.5 3.6 4.8 > 450 0.3 1.9 2.4 3.0

21
 Options-based Probabilities of Price Changes
(in percent)
WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil
Price Months Forward Price Months Forward
changes 3 6 9 12 changes 3 6 9 12
-50% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 -50% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9
-30% 0.1 2.1 7.8 10.0 -30% 0.3 4.0 8.6 12.2
-10% 18.4 28.1 38.2 41.0 -10% 19.8 31.6 38.0 42.1
+10% 21.8 26.3 27.0 26.5 +10% 14.5 23.4 25.5 25.5
+30% 1.5 4.9 8.4 9.0 +30% 0.8 4.2 7.0 8.3
+50% 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.6 +50% 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.4
+100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 +100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

U.S. Natural Gas Gasoline

Price Months Forward Price Months Forward
changes 3 6 9 12 changes 3 6 9 12
-50% 0.1 2.4 6.7 3.5 -50% 0.0 1.5
-30% 10.8 17.0 30.1 27.6 -30% 4.5 15.7
-10% 54.1 45.6 60.8 70.9 -10% 38.2 54.0
+10% 11.7 21.3 17.5 8.9 +10% 20.7 12.1
+30% 1.9 5.6 7.2 2.9 +30% 4.0 1.9
+50% 0.2 1.4 2.9 0.9 +50% 0.6 0.3
+100% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 +100% 0.0 0.0

Copper Gold
Price Months Forward Price Months Forward
changes 3 6 9 12 changes 3 6 9 12
-50% 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 -50% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-30% 1.4 8.2 15.2 21.2 -30% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9
-10% 27.0 39.1 45.8 50.4 -10% 6.4 8.2 10.6 12.5
+10% 25.4 26.9 26.4 25.6 +10% 32.8 32.9 35.2 35.1
+30% 4.3 8.8 10.7 11.7 +30% 1.8 2.4 4.2 5.0
+50% 0.4 2.3 3.9 4.9 +50% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8
+100% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 +100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

22
 Options-based Probabilities of Price Changes (concluded)
(in percent)
Corn Coffee
Price Months Forward Price Months Forward
changes 3 6 9 12 changes 3 6 9 12
-50% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
-30% 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.2 -30% 2.1 4.9 5.8 8.1
-10% 12.7 15.6 16.1 14.2 -10% 36.9 40.9 40.6 42.3
+10% 26.6 32.5 36.0 40.4 +10% 6.8 13.2 16.7 20.7
+30% 3.6 6.3 8.4 10.3 +30% 0.9 2.6 3.7 5.7
+50% 0.6 1.6 2.4 2.9 +50% 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.7
+100% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 +100% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2

Rough Rice Wheat

Price Months Forward Price Months Forward
changes 3 6 9 12 changes 3 6 9 12
-50% 0.0 0.1 -50% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
-30% 0.0 2.6 -30% 0.8 4.3 4.4 4.7
-10% 2.1 17.0 -10% 21.0 28.5 26.8 25.7
+10% 55.0 47.8 +10% 31.6 36.3 40.1 43.5
+30% 5.5 17.5 +30% 6.0 13.2 16.4 19.8
+50% 0.6 6.0 +50% 0.7 3.8 5.5 7.6
+100% 0.0 0.4 +100% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5

Soybeans Soybean Meal

Price Months Forward Price Months Forward
changes 3 6 9 12 changes 3 6 9 12
-50% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -50% 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1
-30% 0.4 2.3 2.2 3.1 -30% 3.2 13.0 14.6 16.6
-10% 23.5 31.0 35.9 37.1 -10% 40.9 49.7 50.4 51.2
+10% 5.6 10.9 16.8 18.5 +10% 14.5 18.8 19.5 20.5
+30% 0.3 1.5 1.9 2.7 +30% 1.7 5.2 5.9 6.8
+50% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 +50% 0.1 1.2 1.5 2.0
+100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +100% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

23
 Commodity Derivative Contract Specifications

Commodity Exchange Contract Physical Characteristics Contract Size Pricing Unit Months Traded
Futures Light sweet crude oil 1,000 barrels U.S. dollars per barrel

Brent crude Consecutive months up to

ICE Europe
oil One crude oil futures and including February 2020
Options
contract of 1,000 barrels

Consecutive months are

Futures Light sweet crude oil 1,000 barrels U.S. dollars per barrel listed for the current year
New York
and the next five years; in
WTI crude oil Mercantile
addition, the Jun and Dec
Exchange One crude oil futures
Options contract months are listed
contract of 1,000 barrels beyond the sixth year.

Natural gas delivered at Henry

New York Futures 10,000 MMBtu U.S. dollars per MMBtu Consecutive months for the
Hub, LA
Natural Gas Mercantile current year plus the next
Exchange One natural gas futures twelve full calendar years.
Options
contract of 10,000 MMBtu

New York Futures New York Harbor RBOB 42,000 gallons U.S. cents per gallon
Consecutive months for 36
Gasoline Mercantile
One gasoline futures months
Exchange Options
contract of 42,000 gallons
Current calendar month; the
Gold (a minimum of 995 U.S. dollars per troy next two calendar months;
Futures 100 troy ounces
fineness) ounce any Feb, Apr, Aug, and Oct
Chicago
falling within a 23-month
Gold Mercantile
period; and any Jun and Dec
Exchange
One COMEX Gold futures falling within a 72-month
Options
contract period beginning with the
current month.
Futures Yellow corn grade #2 5,000 bushels (127 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The
Chicago
One corn futures contract (of monthly option contract
Corn Mercantile
Options a specified month) of 5,000 exercises into the nearby
Exchange
bushels futures contract.
Arabica coffee from 19
37,500 lbs U.S. cents per pound Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The
Futures countries of origin
monthly option contract
Coffee ICE One coffee futures contract
exercises into the nearby
Options (of a specified month) of
futures contract.
37,500 lbs
U.S. #2 long grain rough rice
U.S. cents per
Futures with a total milling yield of 2,000 hundredweights (CWT) Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov.
Chicago hundredweight
65%+ The monthly option contract
Rough rice Mercantile
One rough rice futures exercises into the nearby
Exchange
Options contract of 2,000 futures contract.
hundredweights (CWT)
Futures #2 soft red winter wheat 5,000 bushels (136 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Mar, May, July, Sep, Dec. The
Chicago
Wheat Mercantile One Wheat futures contract monthly option contract
Exchange Options (of a specified month) of exercises into the nearby
5,000 bushels futures contract.
Meal with minimum protein of
Futures 100 short tons U.S. dollars per ton
48% Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep,
Chicago
Oct, Dec. The monthly option
Soybean meal Mercantile One soybean meal futures
contract exercises into the
Exchange Options contract (of a specified
nearby futures contract.
month) of 100 short tons

Futures Yellow soybean grade #2 5,000 bushels (136 MT) U.S. cents per bushel
Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep,
Chicago
Nov. The monthly option
Soybeans Mercantile One soybean futures
contract exercises into the
Exchange Options contract (of a specified
nearby futures contract.
month) of 5,000 bushels

Sources: Chicago Board of Trade, ICE, Bloomberg, L.P.

24