A

PROJECT REPORT
ON

ANALYSIS ON SHARE PRICES

BY

ODDYSOFT COMPANY
(A Report submitted as partial fulfillment of requirement for full time PGDM)

Project guide: Submitted By:

Mr. Mayank kuchaal Shilpa Singh
  (Finance Manager) PGDM Scholar

APEEJAY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
GREATER NOIDA

2010
The “trend analysis of share market”
 is done in order to be successful in our investment in shares and stocks .
As we all know at different points of time, stock market goes through
different phases. Sometimes the market is bearish and sometimes it is
bullish. So, it is very important to make the stock market trend analysis.
There are different methods that are used by the expert in order to predict
the trend of the stock market. So let us see the different methods of making
the analysis of the stock market trend.

a)Technical Analysis –

Technical analysis is one of the methods used for predicting the stock
market trend. The technical analysis is done by collecting the data from the
market. Experts get some information they get from the market and they
post these data in order to make a graphical representation of the price of
the stock. They then predict the future behavior of the market from the
graph pattern that they get. This is normally done in the Indian stock
market.

Technical analysis is a commonly used term in the stock market and

investors and experts are spending sleepless nights over it. Technical
analysis of the stock is a method of predicting the stock price. The
technical analysis is done on the basis of some data that are related to
that particular stock. While doing the technical analysis, experts consider
the past market, market trends, price of the stock and trading volume.
Based on these data analysts perform the stock analysis to predict the
price of that particular stock.

Through the stock analysis experts actually try to figure out the movement
of a particular stock at the stock market. This is done by preparing charts
on the basis of different indicators such as relative strength index,
regressions, moving averages, cycles regressions, inter-market and intra-
market price correlations. Once the chart or the pattern is formed according
to the formula of the technical analysis experts figure out the similarity of
the pattern with previous stock movements. When the pattern matches with
a previous case, it is predicted that the stock will follow that pattern.

Technical analysis of the stock has given a mathematical and scientific

explanation of the stock movements. This is a partially logical way of
predicting the price of the stock and hence technical analysis is seriously
considered by the experts and the investors in general. But in reality
technical analysis is not the absolutely surefire way of predicting the price
movement of the stock. Simply because there are so many other factors
that influence the price of the stock other than those taken into
consideration while doing the technical analysis. For example, no
technical analysis theory considers the psyche of the investors and panic
in the market that hugely influences the stock prices. These factors are only
considered by professionals in the market who understand market and are
well versed with technical analysis too.

Technical analysis is a commonly used term in the stock market and

investors and experts are spending sleepless nights over it.

Technical analysis of the stock is a method of predicting the stock price.

The technical analysis is done on the basis of some data that are related to
that particular stock. While doing the technical analysis, experts consider
the past market, market trends, price of the stock and trading volume.
Based on these data analysts perform the stock analysis to predict the
price of that particular stock.

Through the stock analysis experts actually try to figure out the movement
of a particular stock at the stock market. This is done by preparing charts
on the basis of different indicators such as relative strength index,
regressions, moving averages, cycle’s regressions, inter-market and intra-
market price correlations. Once the chart or the pattern is formed according
to the formula of the technical analysis experts figure out the similarity of
the pattern with previous stock movements. When the pattern matches with
a previous case, it is predicted that the stock will follow that pattern.

Analysts take note of various indicators such as relative strength index,

regressions, moving averages, cycle’s regressions, inter-market and intra-
market price correlations to prepare charts that actually show the pattern of
the price movement for a particular stock. On the basis of the chart and
identifying the price pattern stock analysts predict the future movement of
the stock. These financial indicators are actually mathematical
transformation of the stock price and trading volume. Apart from these
indicators some analysts also consider the market psyche while predicting
the stock prices.

There are different models and theories in practice for stock

analysis:-

Candle Stick Charting - The method of candlestick charts was first

developed by Homma Munehisa in the 18th century. The candlestick chart
is basically a bar style chart that can be used to project and predict the
price movement of the stock. The candlestick chart is basically the
combination of the line chart and the bar chart and gives an overview of the
opening price, closing price, high and low price in a day for over a period of
time. This method of charting and technical analysis is very popular among
the investors and analysts because of the easy readability of the chart.

Dow Theory - Dow Theory was first developed by Charles H. Dow, who
was the first editor of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones
and Company. The theory is based on six basic tenets.
  There are three types of movements in the market.
 Market trends typically have three phases.
 Stock market discounts all news.
 The market average must always confirm each other.
 Market trends needs to be confirmed by the volume of trading.
 Trends can only be said to be ended only when definitive signals
prove that.

Elliott wave principle - This theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott
in his book The Wave Principle (1938). According to this theory the
psychology of the investors generally moves from optimism to pessimism
and this swing creates the price pattern that is projected by the three-wave
structures of increasing degree or size.

Apart from above technical methods there are lot many methods available
to do stock analysis of Indian stock market and movement of stocks listed
in NSE and BSE can be estimated based on those indicators.

b)Direction of the market –

There is also some other analysis that is used by the expert in order to
determine, stock market trend. They predict with the help of the direction of
the market. If they notice that the overall market is rising up, then the stock
prices are ready to grow. On the hand, if there is a bearish market, then the
price of the stock will reduce. In order to determine whether the market is
going through a bullish trend or bearish trend, you need to know whether
the market is having more buyers or more sellers. Suppose you come to
know that there happens to be more sellers than buyers, then the market is
going through a bearish trend. In order to know this, you have to keep a
close watch on the stock price and also on the volume of the stock. You
should get a closer view on NSE, NASDAQ…etc so that you can
understand how a stock market functions.

When you notice that the price of the market is up and also the volume of
the trading is quite high, then you can predict that it is a bullish market.
Remember to read about BSE so that you can know its functions in the
market. So, it is better to make stock market trend analysis in order to be
successful in your investment in shares and stocks.

Market Direction

The overall market influences the performance of smaller markets and

individual stocks. Study the big picture first before looking at any shares in
isolation

a) TIME FRAME

Decide on the cycle that you are going to trade:

 Long-term (or primary) trends that are measured in years;

 Intermediate (or secondary) trends of 3 weeks up to 6 months;
 Short-term cycles of less than 3 weeks; and
 Intra-day trends.

This will influence your indicator settings. More details can be found at
Time Frames and Indicator Time Frames.

(b) Trend Indicator

Trend-trading systems are more popular as they require less time and
normally generate larger returns.
Incredible Charts
Free Charting Software

Auto-Fit Trend lines

Trend Channels
Linear Regression
Channels
Raff Regression
Channels
Standard Deviation
Channels

Trading Trends

The object of trend-trading is to go long at the transition from Phase 1 to

Phase 2 and to exit before Phase 4. Some models also short the market
during Phase 4, but this should be left to experienced traders.

Successful systems are built around the following principles:

1. Selecting securities.

Use the Stock Screener to identify potential Market Leaders. 

2. Market direction.
(a) Decide on the Time Frame that you are trading. 

(b) Confirm the Market Direction using a suitable trend indicator.

 3. Trend direction.

Using the same indicator, check the Trend Direction of each security.

4. Entry signals.

(a) Take Entry Signals from a suitable momentum oscillator.

(b) Use Trailing Stops to time entry and exit points.

5. Stop losses.

(a) Set Stop Loss Orders as soon as your trade is confirmed.

(b) Do not exceed the Maximum Acceptable Loss.
(c) Be technically consistent when Setting Stop Levels. 
(d) Adjust Stop Levels over time to protect your profits.

6. Exit signals.

Take Exit Signals from a suitable trend indicator.

There are adequate patterns, following which the stocks and supplies rise
and fall. The reason could be anything from spoilt reputation of a firm to the
infamy name of the company, which is not necessary to be noted. What’s
important here is to concentrate on the time as in when the value of a share
is rising and when it is going down. When the value is touching sky, it is
best to sell the shares so that you can make big gains. Timing rules the
stocks merchandising. Proper understanding of the trends can only be
earned by experience and focus. And once you are clear with market
trends you can easily manage your investments with right timing.

Another is the stock trading systems. Nowadays many software companies

provide valuable information on stock trading systems. Through this the
investors can understand and manage the trends of many stocks. They can
even seek assistance to know how profitable it will be to invest in a
particular company. These trading systems are available with many shares
that are cost-effective if invested in, letting you free from the extra burden
of work. But don’t forget before starting trading or investing in Indian stock
market you need to do your homework as in proper research is required.

OBJECTIVE OF TREND ANAYLSIS OF SHARE

MARKET–

I have opted 3 sectors –

  Telecom

 Power

 It in my study.

1. To find correlation between the sector and sensex ( for which

I have taken reliance communication , tata power, Infosys).

2. The correlation between the 3 sectors.

3. To what extent different sectors affect the movement of sensex.

ABOUT THE COMPANY

 ODDYSOFT -

ODDYSOFT are not just another software development company or Web

design company – It is analysts. They know that success involves a lot
more than just being competent in a specific language or application
development tool. There success comes from through analysis and
specification, perfectly established test-driven development process, expert
management, and strong experience with the latest technologies.

1) Web development-

It offer a whole range of Web design services, including graphic concepts

and work, logos and banner design, Web site building, animation,
presentations, and virtual tours. There work is always original and unique.

Website Design-

It develops Web sites that work. Web sites that enrich the look of the
business and are professionally designed, unique in style, easy to use,
convenient to navigate, fast to load and "search engine ready". They obtain
an understanding of your business philosophy and build a Web site for their
company that reflects you unique image and conforms to the needs and
goals of your company and clientele. They build Web sites that make
businesses successful.
 

They can either design a new Web site for you from the ground up, or re-
design your current site. They are also able to develop your site for e-
commerce.

Web Site package includes:

 Original design

 Free revisions

 Professional HTML coding

 Exclusive graphics

 Testing and optimization for Internet Explorer

 Built-in META tags

 Assistance with upload and installation

Logo Development –

. High quality logos for any business, for any purpose. We combine

all our creative thinking and visualizing talents to design logos

reflecting your company’s philosophy.

Logo Development package includes:-

 Original logo designs

 Free revisions
  Images in different formats: GIF, JPEG and PNG etc files
optimized for the Web, high-resolution color and black & white
images in PSD or Corel format.

 Exclusive graphics

 Testing and optimization for Internet Explorer

 Built-in META tags

 Assistance with upload and installation

2) BULK SMS SERVICE

Bulk Messaging Platform, SMS marketing, SMS API Links for customized application,
Premium Short Code Service, Email Marketing, Software Solutions, Web Solutions,
Multimedia Development, IVRS solution.

View few sms services :-

a) Bulk SMS Advertising,

b) Bulk SMS for Service Messages
c) SMS API Links for client's customized application
d) Virtual SMS Mobile.

SMS Advertising
Mobile phone ads have already become an extremely powerful way of advertising. India
has 150 Million mobile phone users & this number is growing everyday. SMS
advertising can be used for following:

• To send redeemable coupons, vouchers to your customers to boost sales

• Send Ads to create brand value.
• Send alerts & to do corporate communication.

SMS advertising is nothing but context based target marketing. It is contextual because
Ads only go to the right people, who have a tendency to purchase your
products/services. For example when you want to target sports products in a specific
age group, we will send the message just to those people. SMS advertising can be
integrated into planned advertising campaigns.

We offer a database of millions of subscribers, who are willing to receive & act upon
your ads. What else can be better then that? We are an SMS advertiser, which
understands marketing besides technology.

By accessing our services, your business can benefit hugely, as cost to do SMS
campaign is just a fraction of a hoarding or TV ad, which can easily cost in millions of
rupees.
 

What can SMS Advertising do for you ?

• We create a Concept for your Campaign.

• We filter the database as per your needs based on our experience.
• Verify the Database against the Do Not Call Registry
• Broadcast your message to your Target Audience
 

What are the Benefits of SMS Advertising?

• Save Time as it is Quick To Create, Conceptualize & Start the Campaign

• Select your target group by Age, Gender, City, buying capacity
• Increase Your Sales & Generate Repeat Sales
• Cheaper, Faster & Instant Results
• Direct Reach to Audience
• Highly Personalized
• ROI: Stronger than other media Cross-media: Mix with Radio, TV, Print
• Viral: Customers forward messages to friends & Family
 

Product Description:: Push Messaging

This web based tool enables the users to send SMS to predefined set of mobile
numbers. User-friendly device which facilitate the user by providing a username and
password to access the tool that provides the following features to the user over a web
interface.

It is quite simple but powerful application having the capability of sending sms text to
any number of recipients. A hierarchical tree like structure can be sorted out to send the
message to be pushed.

SMS is one of the cost effective and high-response tool which can help to enjoin
customers, sell and promote products, drive promotion rage of the brand. The fact
behind the on going mobile culture is that, it has optimum usable density with high
index throughout India.

3) FINANCIAL MODELING

What Does Financial Modeling Mean?

The process by which a firm constructs a financial representation of some, or all,

aspects of the firm or given security. The model is usually characterized by performing
calculations, and makes recommendations based on that information. The model may
also summarize particular events for the end user and provide direction regarding
possible actions or alternatives.

Where do you see Financial Modeling around you?

In various organizations having spreadsheet based financial model majorly use this
technique. The use of the financial modeling can be seen in Forecasting , Planning, MIS
reporting and various KPOs having the business modeling based assignments in
various valuations techniques e.g. Bond Analysis, DCF Analysis etc.

What are the benefits?

The benefits to using spreadsheet modeling for financial management and valuation are
undisputed in the world of finance. The benefits include low cost, easy to understand,
flexible and low maintenance cost.

Who Can Benefit?

Firms and Corporations - diverse industries including consulting, risk management,

investment banking, commercial banking, private equity, hedge funds managers and all
types of corporations and small businesses.

Students and Professionals - Undergraduate, MBA students, and professionals use our
courses to be more competitive in landing a finance job. Quantitative skills are highly
valued in the workplace, and The Analyst Exchange's coaching takes your learning
outside the classroom.

ABOUT COMPANY –

We are creating innovative, high-quality custom software for almost 5 years. We started
as a group of highly qualified software engineers, developing desktop applications
mainly for the insurance business. We quickly accumulated the expertise to become a
total IT solutions provider for our clients, focusing on application development, Web
development, and Web site design.

How We Work
Based on our significant experience in the IT business, we have worked out our
development policies towards producing high-quality solutions for reasonable costs.
Here are some of our main principles:

 Detailed free proposals

 Expert management

 Comprehensive design specifications for all projects

 Extensive testing by our experienced programmers

 Use of the latest technologies

 Unique graphic design

 Responsive customer support service.

We listen to our clients and respond to their needs with subtle customization of the
development process, providing a full-cycle customer service. We also offer a
service which takes a significant step forward from traditional outsourcing: an
Offshore Dedicated Development Team assembled to client's specifications. This
service puts our clients in full control of their resources, time, and money, providing
higher overall efficiency and becoming a worthwhile extension to their in-house
team, especially for projects that require continuous development and maintenance.

SERVICES –

1)Website Hosting –

Website Hosting
Most features, competitive prices, friendly customer support service, flexible
discount system. We combine reliability, high performance, and family-friendly
customer service to deliver a comprehensive, easy-to-use solution to web site
hosting, development and maintenance.

2) Website Maintenance -

Website Maintenance
Once your web site is launched, inevitably you will need to make some changes to it.
Whether you require updating content or images, adding new pages, introducing
new products or listing job openings, our maintenance services are available to help
you keep your site fresh and inviting.

3)Search Engine Optimization (SEO) –

Search Engine Optimization (SEO)

You created your Web site and offer great products or services, but all this means
nothing if no one can find you on the Internet. You need to promote your site to
increase daily Web site traffic leading to greater sales of your products or services.
 Research methodology

Several characteristics of modern business encourage the use of

marketing research by business. First, the suppliers of products and
services need to be informed about the final consumer in order to market
their products and services more effectively. Secondly, as a company
grows and starts distributing its products in number of different markets,
the managers of the company find them selves becoming more separated
from the final consumers of their products. Managers need information
from their final consumers in order to satisfy the consumers, managers
need at least five such information topics, which are of great interest from
them. These five topics are:

TARGET MARKET

PRODUCT/SERVICES

PRICE

DISTRIBUTION
PROMOTION

 Research, as defined by Kerlinger, is a systematic, controlled, empirical and

critical investigation of hypothetical proposition about the presumes relationship
among natural phenomenon. One must note that research does not necessitate
a hypothesis and to that extent the phrase ‘investigation of hypothetical
propositions’ is redundant. Formulation of hypothesis may in itself be a topic of
research. At times research focuses itself on descriptive rather than on causal or
experimental aspects.
 Research may mean the first small step in an endeavor to better understand the
change occurring and at times forced upon we as individuals or as a society.
 Best defines research as “the systematic and objective analysis one recording of
controlled observation that may lead to development of generalization, principles
or theories, resulting in predictions and possibly ultimate control of events.

TYPES OF RESEARCH:
Research can be classified into various classes that are
1) Pure Research.
2) Exploratory Research.
3) Descriptive Research.
4) Diagnostic Research.
5) Conceptual Research.

Research Design

The research design which has been used in the project report is
descriptive in nature.
SAMPLE DESIGN

The sample design which has been use in this project report is simple
random sampling.

SAMPLING UNIT

A decision has to be taken concerning a sample unit before selecting the

number of samples.

SIZE OF SAMPLE

The survey was conducted on share prices of different companies on 12

months.

Types of data

 Secondary Data

Secondary Data
The secondary sources of information through :

 Internet

 Annual reports

 Newspapers
Time series data –

Quantities that represent or trace the values taken by a variable over a period such as

a month, quarter, or year. Time series data occurs wherever the same measurements
are recorded on a regular basis.

In statistics, signal processing, econometrics and mathematical finance, a time

series is a sequence of data points, measured typically at successive times spaced at
uniform time intervals. Examples of time series are the daily closing value of the Dow
Jones index or the annual flow volume of the Nile River at Aswan. Time
series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract
meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is
the use of a model to forecast future events based on known past events: to predict
data points before they are measured. An example of time series forecasting
in econometrics is predicting the opening price of a stock based on its past
performance.

Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis
distinct from other common data analysis problems, in which there is no natural ordering
of the observations (e.g. explaining people's wages by reference to their education
level, where the individuals' data could be entered in any order). Time series analysis is
also distinct from spatial data analysis where the observations typically relate to
geographical locations (e.g. accounting for house prices by the location as well as the
intrinsic characteristics of the houses). A time series model will generally reflect the fact
that observations close together in time will be more closely related than observations
further apart. In addition, time series models will often make use of the natural one-way
ordering of time so that values for a given period will be expressed as deriving in some
way from past values, rather than from future values .
Hypothesis
A tentative explanation for an observation, phenomenon, or scientific problem that can
be tested by further investigation.

THE PURPOSE AND FUNCTION OF AN HYPOTHESIS

 It offers explanations for the relationships between those variables that can
be empirically tested.

 It furnishes proof that the researcher has sufficient background knowledge

to enable him/her to make suggestions in order to extend existing
knowledge.

 It gives direction to an investigation.

 It structures the next phase in the investigation and therefore furnishes

continuity to the examination of the problem.

CHARACTERISTICS OF AN HYPOTHESIS

 It should have elucidating power.

  It should strive to furnish an acceptable explanation of the phenomenon.

 It must be verifiable.

 It must be formulated in simple, understandable terms.

 It should corresponds with existing knowledge.

Types of hypothesis-

Hypotheses can be classified in terms of their derivation (inductive and deductive

hypotheses) and in terms of their formulation (research - directional and non-directional
and statistical or null hypotheses) –

a. Inductive is a generalization based on specific observations.

b. Deductive is derived from theory and provides evidence that supports, expands, or
contradicts the theory.

c. Non directional - states that relation or difference between variables exists.

d. Directional - states the expected direction of the relation or difference.

e. Null - states that there is no significant relation or difference between variables.

Hypothesis of this study –

1. Movement into different sectors affect the movement of sensex ,

 Null hypothesis ( ho).

2. The movement of sectors doesn’t give significant affect on the movement of

index . Alternative hypothesis (h1).

3. Upward and downward trend in the sector affects the other sectors , null
hypothesis ( ho).

4. It doesn’t affect change in the other sector correlated with the movement of other
sectors or vice – versa.

5. Sensex is dependent on the movement of index of different sector , null

hypothesis (ho).

6. Sensex is independent of movement of the different index , alternative

hypothesis (h1).

Area of Study
Oddysoft company, noida sec-49.
ACC
CO.
Monthly Share Prices

YEAR HIGH(RS. LOW(RS. P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN

2009 ) ) CLOSE(RS.) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 567.1 469.1 504.85 9.99 7.3 8 9,475.02
FEB 584.7 486 539.8 9.39 7.59 8.56 10,130.97
MAR 604.9 510.1 576.65 10.06 7.77 9.14 10,822.57
APR 689.9 561 653 11.45 8.44 10.35 12,255.50
MAY 804 570 783 13.09 8.66 12.41 14,696.13
JUNE 907 709 768.9 15.12 10.7 12.19 14,431.48
JULY 889.9 720 881.3 14.25 10.78 13.97 16,542.00
AUG 928 750 808.7 15.53 11.48 12.82 15,179.30
SEPT 855.2 759 819.3 13.88 11.91 12.99 15,378.26
OCT 841.8 726.25 747.65 13.6 11.36 11.85 14,033.39
NOV 816.75 686.2 796.6 13.22 10.65 12.63 14,953.78
DEC 883.5 790.55 871.5 10.45 8.95 10.17 16,361.54

RELIANCE COMMUNICATION
YEAR HIGH(RS. LOW(RS. P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
2009 ) ) CLOSE(RS.) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 265.45 155 170.2 22.51 11.22 13.53 35,129.62
FEB 183.75 150.3 155.45 14.78 11.42 12.36 32,085.19
MAR 188.4 131.35 174.6 29.68 20.05 26.84 36,037.79
APR 240.9 172.65 214.95 41.03 25.46 33.04 44,366.11
MAY 346.8 211.75 305.8 58.56 30.68 47.01 63,117.73
JUNE 359 282.65 289.9 57.1 41.48 44.56 59,835.94
JULY 302.85 228.5 275.65 48.1 28.5 42.37 56,894.71
AUG 293.4 221.35 260.5 46.84 28.16 40.05 53,767.72
SEPT 317.3 260.6 308 49.72 39.54 47.35 63,571.82
OCT 319.7 175 175.95 49.41 26.76 27.05 36,316.43
NOV 183 162.25 171.95 28.92 24.39 26.43 35,490.82
DEC 189.9 168.3 172.9 30.19 25.8 26.58 35,686.91

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES
YEAR HIGH(RS. LOW(RS. P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
2009 ) ) CLOSE(RS.) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 1,318.70 1,101.00 1,305.50 17.01 12.62 16.72 74,758.15
FEB 1,324.95 1,146.40 1,231.30 17.2 14.22 15.77 70,509.16
MAR 1,398.00 1,168.00 1,324.10 14.29 11.01 13.03 75,847.10
APR 1,514.90 1,275.00 1,507.30 14.99 11.31 14.84 86,341.16
MAY 1,830.00 1,485.05 1,602.00 21.08 14.29 15.77 91,765.76
JUNE 1,854.00 1,602.00 1,776.90 19.32 15.53 17.5 101,827.03
JULY 2,076.95 1,635.00 2,063.90 20.58 15.25 20.33 118,273.85
AUG 2,202.70 1,936.00 2,132.30 21.82 18.92 21 122,193.58
SEPT 2,414.70 2,122.35 2,308.40 23.87 20.7 22.74 132,345.19
OCT 2,352.50 2,141.00 2,205.40 23.6 20.48 21.73 126,439.99
NOV 2,457.90 2,127.10 2,383.95 24.46 20.84 23.49 136,676.62
DEC 2,614.90 2,355.25 2,605.25 25.87 22.82 25.68 149,421.51

TATA POWER
YEAR HIGH(RS. LOW(RS. P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
2009 ) ) CLOSE(RS.) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 835.00  681.20  761.45  33.59  25.36  29.52  16,856.98 
FEB 814.00  708.10  726.40  31.80  26.76  28.16  16,083.95 
MAR 796.50  602.00  765.30  25.99  19.11  24.50  16,945.27 
APR 914.25  762.00  893.95  29.78  23.40  28.66  19,821.55 
MAY 1,126.70  861.10  1,070.30  38.03  26.89  34.31  23,731.76 
JUNE 1,225.00  1,007.05  1,149.70  41.00  31.22  36.91  25,524.49 
JULY 1,330.00  995.00  1,302.05  46.53  30.39  44.59  30,839.05 
AUG 1,457.00  1,206.10  1,308.80  56.64  39.73  44.82  30,998.93 
SEPT 1,345.00  1,222.70  1,319.45  47.13  39.91  45.23  31,282.84 
 OCT 1,487.00  1,258.50  1,343.20  52.31  42.18  46.07  31,859.36 
NOV 1,374.00  1,262.00  1,348.95  49.43  41.39  46.26  31,995.75 
DEC 1,388.00  1,308.25  1,377.95  47.95  44.29  47.26  32,683.60 

CORRELATION – ANALYSIS :

ACC CO.
HIGH(RS LOW(RS P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
YEAR 2009 .) .) CLOSE(RS.) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 567.1 469.1 504.85 9.99 7.3 8 9,475.02
FEB 584.7 486 539.8 9.39 7.59 8.56 10,130.97
MAR 604.9 510.1 576.65 10.06 7.77 9.14 10,822.57
APR 689.9 561 653 11.45 8.44 10.35 12,255.50
MAY 804 570 783 13.09 8.66 12.41 14,696.13
JUNE 907 709 768.9 15.12 10.7 12.19 14,431.48
JULY 889.9 720 881.3 14.25 10.78 13.97 16,542.00
AUG 928 750 808.7 15.53 11.48 12.82 15,179.30
SEPT 855.2 759 819.3 13.88 11.91 12.99 15,378.26
OCT 841.8 726.25 747.65 13.6 11.36 11.85 14,033.39
NOV 816.75 686.2 796.6 13.22 10.65 12.63 14,953.78
DEC 883.5 790.55 871.5 10.45 8.95 10.17 16,361.54

RELIANCE COMMUNICATION
HIGH(RS LOW(RS P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
YEAR 2009 .) .) CLOSE(RS.) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 265.45 155 170.2 22.51 11.22 13.53 35,129.62
FEB 183.75 150.3 155.45 14.78 11.42 12.36 32,085.19
MAR 188.4 131.35 174.6 29.68 20.05 26.84 36,037.79
APR 240.9 172.65 214.95 41.03 25.46 33.04 44,366.11
MAY 346.8 211.75 305.8 58.56 30.68 47.01 63,117.73
JUNE 359 282.65 289.9 57.1 41.48 44.56 59,835.94
JULY 302.85 228.5 275.65 48.1 28.5 42.37 56,894.71
AUG 293.4 221.35 260.5 46.84 28.16 40.05 53,767.72
SEPT 317.3 260.6 308 49.72 39.54 47.35 63,571.82
OCT 319.7 175 175.95 49.41 26.76 27.05 36,316.43
NOV 183 162.25 171.95 28.92 24.39 26.43 35,490.82
DEC 189.9 168.3 172.9 30.19 25.8 26.58 35,686.91

CORRELATION RESULT:

CLOSE(RS 0.5508
.) 7

INTERPRETATION

IT MEANS THERE IS PERFECT POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES.

AS THE CORRELATION (r = +1).
P/E
CLOSE 0.8247

INTERPRETATION

IT MEANS THERE IS PERFECT POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES.

AS THE CORRELATION (r = +1).

INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES
YEAR HIGH(RS. CLOSE(RS. P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
2009 ) LOW(RS.) ) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 1,318.70 1,101.00 1,305.50 17.01 12.62 16.72 74,758.15
FEB 1,324.95 1,146.40 1,231.30 17.2 14.22 15.77 70,509.16
MAR 1,398.00 1,168.00 1,324.10 14.29 11.01 13.03 75,847.10
APR 1,514.90 1,275.00 1,507.30 14.99 11.31 14.84 86,341.16
MAY 1,830.00 1,485.05 1,602.00 21.08 14.29 15.77 91,765.76
JUNE 1,854.00 1,602.00 1,776.90 19.32 15.53 17.5 101,827.03
JULY 2,076.95 1,635.00 2,063.90 20.58 15.25 20.33 118,273.85
AUG 2,202.70 1,936.00 2,132.30 21.82 18.92 21 122,193.58
SEPT 2,414.70 2,122.35 2,308.40 23.87 20.7 22.74 132,345.19
OCT 2,352.50 2,141.00 2,205.40 23.6 20.48 21.73 126,439.99
NOV 2,457.90 2,127.10 2,383.95 24.46 20.84 23.49 136,676.62
DEC 2,614.90 2,355.25 2,605.25 25.87 22.82 25.68 149,421.51

TATA POWER
YEAR HIGH(RS. CLOSE(RS. P/E P/E P/E MKT CAP(RS. IN
2009 ) LOW(RS.) ) HIGH LOW CLOSE Cr.)
JAN 835.00  681.20  761.45  33.59  25.36  29.52  16,856.98 
FEB 814.00  708.10  726.40  31.80  26.76  28.16  16,083.95 
MAR 796.50  602.00  765.30  25.99  19.11  24.50  16,945.27 
APR 914.25  762.00  893.95  29.78  23.40  28.66  19,821.55 
MAY 1,126.70  861.10  1,070.30  38.03  26.89  34.31  23,731.76 
JUNE 1,225.00  1,007.05  1,149.70  41.00  31.22  36.91  25,524.49 
JULY 1,330.00  995.00  1,302.05  46.53  30.39  44.59  30,839.05 
AUG 1,457.00  1,206.10  1,308.80  56.64  39.73  44.82  30,998.93 
SEPT 1,345.00  1,222.70  1,319.45  47.13  39.91  45.23  31,282.84 
OCT 1,487.00  1,258.50  1,343.20  52.31  42.18  46.07  31,859.36 
NOV 1,374.00  1,262.00  1,348.95  49.43  41.39  46.26  31,995.75 
DEC 1,388.00  1,308.25  1,377.95  47.95  44.29  47.26  32,683.60 

CLOSE(RS 0.6724
.) 7

INTERPRETATION

IT MEANS THERE IS PERFECT POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES.

AS THE CORRELATION (r = +1).

P/E CLOSE 0.9235

INTERPRETATION

IT MEANS THERE IS PERFECT POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIABLES.

AS THE CORRELATION (r = +1).

GRAPHS OF COMPANIES :
 ACC
894
892
890
888
886
884
882
880
878
876
874
Share Price Open Close high low

ACC
894
892
890
888
886
884
882
880
878
876
874
Share Price Open Close high low
 ACC

Share Price
Open
Close
high
low

RELIANCE COMMUNICATION
158

156

154

152

150

148

146
1 2 3 4 5

158

156

154

152

150

148

146
1 2 3 4 5
INFOSYS

2,680

2,670

2,660

2,650

2,640

2,630

2,620
1 2 3 4 5
2,680

2,670

2,660

2,650

2,640

2,630

2,620
1 2 3 4 5
TATA POWER

1,335
1,330
1,325
1,320
1,315
1,310
1,305
1,300
1,295
1,290
1 2 3 4 5

1,340
1,335
1,330
1,325
1,320
1,315
1,310
1,305
1,300
1,295
1,290
1 2 3 4 5
REGRESSION – ANALYSIS

ACC COMPANY

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.9485176
Multiple R 7
0.8996857
R Square 7
Adjusted R 0.8896543
Square 5
Standard 1061.3549
Error 5
Observations 12
 ANOVA
Significanc
  df SS MS F eF
101029825. 89.6867
Regression 1 101029825.2 2 5 2.6116E-06
1126474.32
Residual 10 11264743.28 8
Total 11 112294568.4      

Coefficient Standard Upper

  s Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95%
-
- 1.75163054 0.11038 - 875.7064
Intercept 3219.0714 1837.757064 8 9 7313.8493 8
23.531107 9.47030904 17.994796 29.06741
X Variable 1 8 2.484724382 1 2.61E-06 9 9

Reliance communication

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.4275406
R Square 0.1827909
Adjusted R
Square 0.10107
Standard Error 3029.3257
Observations 12

ANOVA
Significance
  df SS MS F F
20526428.8 2052642 2.23677 0.16563633
Regression 1 5 9 1 7
91768139.5
Residual 10 9 9176814
112294568.
Total 11 4      
 Coefficien Standard Upper
  ts Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95%
3496.15181 2.53962 0.02938 1088.99046 16668.8
Intercept 8878.9021 5 1 2 9 1
15.1803012 1.49558 0.16563 - 56.5272
X Variable 1 22.703412 8 4 6 11.1204071 3

Infosys

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9482507
R Square 0.8991794
Adjusted R
Square 0.8890973
Standard Error 1064.0305
Observations 12

ANOVA
Significanc
  df SS MS F eF
100972960. 1.01E+0 89.1860 2.67881E-
Regression 1 3 8 6 06
11321608.1
Residual 10 7 1132161
112294568.
Total 11 4      

Coefficient Standard Upper

  s Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95%
-
1307.50425 1.48311 974.11999 4852.48
Intercept 1939.181 1 6 0.16886 1 2
0.67944203 9.44383 4.9026486 7.93043
X Variable 1 6.4165398 2 7 2.68E-06 4 1
CORRELATION

CORRELATION is a statistical device which helps us in analyzing the co variation of

two or more variables.

The problem of analyzing the relation between different series should be broken into
three steps :-

1) Determining whether a relation exists and, if it does, measuring it.

2) Testing whether it is significant.
3) Establishing the cause and effect relation, if any.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY OF CORRELATION:-

 Most of the variables show some kind of the relationship. For example, there is
relationship between price and supply, income and expenditure, etc.

 Once we know that two variables are closely related, we can estimate the value
of one variable given the value of another. This is known with the help of
regression analysis.

 Correlation analysis contributes to the understanding of economic behavior, aids

in locating the critically important variables on which others depend , may reveal
to the economist the connection by which disturbances spread and suggest to
him the paths through which stabilizing forces may become effective.
REGRESSION

REGRESSION IS THE MEASURE OF THE AVERAGE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN

TWO OR MORE VARIABLES IN TERMS OF THE ORIGINAL UNITS OF THE DATA.

USESOF REGRESSION ANALYSIS –

IT IS THE BASIC TECHNIQUE FOR MEASURING OR ESTIMATING THE

RELATIONSHIP AMONG ECONOMIC VARIABLES THAT CONSTITUTE THE
ESSENCE OF ECONOMIC THEORY AND ECONOMIC LIFE.

 IT PROVIDES ESTIMATES OF VALUES OF THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE

FROM VALUES OF THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLE. THE DEVICE USED TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS ESTIMATION PROCEDURE IS REGRESSION LINE.

 A SECOND GOAL OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IS TO OBTAIN A MEASURE

OF THE ERROR INVOLVED IN USING THE REGRESSION LINE AS A BASIS
FOR ESTIMATION. FOR THIS PURPOSE THE STANDARD ERROR OF
ESTIMATE IS CALCULATED.

WITH THE HELP OF REGRESSION COEFFICIENT WE CAN CALCULATE THE

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT