2014.02.25 - No Quick Fix For Cyprus

Publisher: Hurriyet daily news "My work on Cyprus was cited in the prestigious Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet." -George Papadopoulos' LinkedIn Profile

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2014.02.25 - No Quick Fix For Cyprus

Publisher: Hurriyet daily news "My work on Cyprus was cited in the prestigious Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet." -George Papadopoulos' LinkedIn Profile

Uploaded by

juliabhaber

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

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LEADINGNEWSSOURCEFORTURKEYANDTHEREGION

HOME TURKEY ECONOMY WORLD SPORTS LIFE ARTS/CULTURE OPINION VIDEO PHOTO

NoquickfixforCyprus
ROBERTELLIS

BillieHolidaysWhataLittleMoonlightCanDoisapopularevergreen,butnowthereisanupdateintheEasternMediterranean:
WhataLittleGasCanDo.

AfterJohnKerrywastakenoffbalancebySergeiLavrovoverSyriaschemicalweapons,theU.S.issearchingforacomebackand
Cyprusseemstofitthebill.Notthatasolutiontothe50yearoldconflicthasanyintrinsicvaluefortheAmericans,butbecauseitis
akeytounlockingthevastgasandoilreservesintheLevantBasin.

In2003,whentheissuewasthepassageofAmericantroopsthroughTurkeytonorthernIraq,theU.S.offeredTurkeytwo
incentives,severalbilliondollarsingrantsandloansandCyprus,intheformoftheAnnanPlan.Now,withanewagenda,theU.S.
hasasecondbiteattheappleasfacilitatorforthestartofanew,andhopefullyfinal,roundofunificationtalks.

Theotherday,afterasixmonthsilence,PresidentObamahadalengthyphoneconversationwithhischumandmodelpartner,
PrimeMinisterErdoan.Inadiscussionofregionalandbilateralissues,thepresidentthankedMr.Erdoanfor,hisconstructiverole
intheeffortonCyprustorenewnegotiationsforasettlement.

AttheendofJanuary,GeorgePapadopoulos,seniorconsultantattheHudsonInstitute,arguedinArutzShevathattheU.S.should
leverageitsgrowingmilitarytieswithbothIsraelandGreecetorepelRussiansgrowinginfluenceintheregion.Inhisview,the
discoveryofthemassivegasandoildepositscreatesanaturalnexusforanintegratedenergyzonebetweenJerusalem,Nicosiaand
Athens,whichtheU.S.candevelopasafoundationforamilitarypact.

AccordingtoPapadopoulos,theriseoftheAKPanditsforeignpolicieshavefracturedthefoundationofU.S.policyintheEastern
MediterraneanandcreatedavacuumforthereturnofRussiaasagreatpower.

Nevertheless,MatthewBryza,formerU.S.ambassadortoAzerbaijanandnowboardmemberoftheTurcasEnergygroup,arguesin
Bloombergfortheconstructionofa292milepipelinefromIsraelsLeviathanfieldtoCeyhaninsouthernTurkeyasthefixtoresolve
thestandoffbetweenIsraelandTurkey.

Atthesametime,BryzasuggeststheexcessgasfromtheLeviathanfieldcanbedivertedtoCyprustomaketheconstructionofan
LNGterminalatVassilikosfinanciallyviable.Atpresent,thisprojecthasbeenshelvedbecauseofinsufficientreservesinCypruss
Aphroditefield.

ThemajorobstacletoadtentebetweenTurkeyandIsraelistheunresolvedMaviMarmaraissueandErdoansinsistence
thatIsraelfirstendsitsGazaembargo.Bryzarecognizesanoverallsolution,includingtheCyprusquestion,willrequireintricate
diplomaticchoreography,butbelievestheU.S.hasaroletoplay.

Cyprushasbaseditshopesofeconomicrecoveryontheexploitationofitshydrocarbonresources,butthatpathisfraughtwith
difficulty.Oneprerequisiteisasatisfactoryoutcometoreunificationtalks,toavoidaconflictwithTurkeyovertheexploitationofthe
islandsenergyresources.AsanIsraelTurkeypipelinewillpassthroughCyprussEEZ,thiswillalsoentailCyprusscompliance.

However,furtherexploratoryandappraisaldrillingwillhavetotakeplaceintheAphroditefieldbeforeitcanbeascertainedwhether
thereisacrediblebasisforinvestinginasingleLNGtraintoVassilikos.Irrespectiveoftheoutcome,additionalIsraeligaswillonly
strengthentheviabilityoftheproject.

EnergyspecialistDr.TheodorosTsakaris,inananalysisofTurkishIsraelirelationsandthestrategicenergycalculations
ofGreeceandCyprus,mentionsthatthepoliticalriskfactorwillplayaprominentroleinthedecisionsmadebybothgovernments
andcompanies.ApositiveoutcometotheCyprustalkscanonlyreducethisfactor.

RobertEllisisaregularcommentatoronTurkishaffairsintheDanishandinternationalpress.
February/25/2014