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IPE 470-Simulation On Reliability Systems PDF

This document describes a simulation of the reliability of three bearings in a milling machine. It provides the life distributions and costs associated with bearing failures, repair delays, and downtime. The simulation tracks 18 failures over 20,000 hours of operation. The total costs are calculated for repairing failures individually versus replacing all three bearings at each failure. Replacing individual bearings costs $7,216 while replacing all three bearings costs $5,269, suggesting the proposal to replace all three bearings is cost effective.

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Namra Fatima
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316 views14 pages

IPE 470-Simulation On Reliability Systems PDF

This document describes a simulation of the reliability of three bearings in a milling machine. It provides the life distributions and costs associated with bearing failures, repair delays, and downtime. The simulation tracks 18 failures over 20,000 hours of operation. The total costs are calculated for repairing failures individually versus replacing all three bearings at each failure. Replacing individual bearings costs $7,216 while replacing all three bearings costs $5,269, suggesting the proposal to replace all three bearings is cost effective.

Uploaded by

Namra Fatima
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Simulation on Reliability Problem

Exercise-3: A large milling machine has three different


bearings that fall in service. The cumulative distribution function of
the life of each bearing is identical as shown in the table. When a
bearing fails, the mills stops, a repairperson is called, and a new
bearing is installed. The delay time of the repairpersons arriving
at the milling machine is also a random variable, with the
distribution given in table 2. Downtime for the mill is estimated at
$5 per minute. The direct on site cost of the repairperson is $15
per hour. It takes 20 minutes to change one bearing, 30 minutes
to change two bearings, and 40 minutes to change three
bearings. The bearings cost $16 each. A proposal has been made
to replace all three bearings whenever a bearing fails.
Management needs an evaluation of this proposal.
Random Digit Assignment For Bearing Life

Bearing life Probability Cumulative Random Digit


(Hours) Probability Assignment
1000 0.10 0.10 01-10
1100 0.13 0.23 11-23
1200 0.25 0.48 24-48
1300 0.13 0.61 49-61
1400 0.09 0.70 62-70
1500 0.12 0.82 71-82
1600 0.02 0.84 83-84
1700 0.06 0.90 85-90
1800 0.05 0.95 91-95
1900 0.05 1.00 96-00
Random digit assignment for Delay Time

Delay Probability Cumulative Random


Time Probability Digit
(Minutes) Assignment

5 0.6 0.6 1-6

10 0.3 0.9 7-9

15 0.1 1.0 0
Assumption
Simulate the problem for 20000 hours of operation. It will
be assumed in this problem that the times are never
exactly the same and thus no more than 1 bearing is
changed at any breakdown. 16 bearings changes were
made for bearings 1 and 2 but only 14 bearings were
required for bearing 3.
Bearing1
Bearing RD for Life Accum RD for Delay
Time
No life (hours) ulated delay (Minutes)
Life time
(hours)
1 67 1400 1400 2 5
2 08 1000 2400 3 5
3 49 1300 3700 1 5
4 84 1600 5300 7 10
5 44 1200 6500 8 10
6 30 1200 7700 1 5
7 10 1000 8700 2 5
8 63 1400 10100 8 10
9 02 1000 11100 3 5
10 02 1000 12100 8 10
11 77 1500 13600 7 10
12 59 1300 14900 5 5
13 23 1100 16000 5 5
14 53 1300 17300 6 10
15 85 1700 19000 6 5
16 75 1500 20500 4 5
Bearing2
Bearing No RD Life (hours) Accumulated RD Delay Time
(Minutes)
Life (hours)

1 70 1500 1500 0 15
2 43 1200 2700 7 10
3 86 1700 4400 3 5
4 93 1800 6200 1 5
5 81 1600 7800 2 5
6 44 1200 9000 8 10
7 19 1100 10100 1 5
8 51 1300 11400 1 5
9 45 1300 12700 7 10
10 12 1100 13800 8 5
11 48 1300 15100 0 15
12 09 1000 16100 8 10

13 44 1200 17300 1 5

14 46 1200 18500 2 10

15 40 1200 19700 8 5

16 52 1300 21000 5 5
Bearing3
Bearing No RD Life (hours) Accumulated RD Delay Time
(Minutes)
Life (hours)

1 76 1500 1500 0 15
2 65 1400 2900 2 5
3 61 1400 4300 7 10
4 96 1900 6200 1 5
5 65 1400 7600 3 5
6 56 1300 8900 3 5
7 11 1100 10000 6 5
8 86 1700 11700 3 5
9 57 1300 13000 1 5
10 49 1300 14300 4 5
11 36 1200 15500 8 10
12 44 1200 16700 2 5

13 94 1800 18500 1 5

14 78 1500 20000 7 10
Total Cost
Cost of Bearings=46*$16=$736
Cost of Delay
Time=(110+125+95)*$5=$1650
Cost of Downtime during Repair=46*20
min/bearing*5/min=$4600
Cost of Repairperson=46bearing*20
min/bearing*$15/60 min=$230
Total
Cost=$(736+1650+4600+230)=$7216
Chang B1 B2 B3 First Accumul RD Delay
e No life(ho life(hours) life(hour Failure ated Life Time
urs) s) (min)

1 1400 1500 1500 1400 1400 3 5


2 1000 1200 1400 1000 2400 7 10
3 1300 1700 1400 1300 3700 5 5
4 1600 1800 1900 1600 5300 1 5
5 1200 1600 1400 1200 6500 4 5
6 1200 1200 1300 1200 7700 3 5
7 1000 1100 1100 1000 8700 7 10
8 1400 1300 1700 1300 10000 8 10
9 1000 1300 1300 1000 11000 8 10
10 1000 1000 1300 1000 12000 3 5
Chang B1 B2 B3 First Accumu RD Delay
e No life(ho life(hours) life(hour Failure lated Time
urs) s) Life (min)

11 1500 1300 1200 1200 13200 2 5


12 1300 1000 1200 1000 14200 4 5
13 1100 1200 1800 1100 15300 1 5
14 1300 1200 1500 1200 16500 6 5
15 1700 1200 63/1400 1200 17700 2 5
16 1500 1300 21/1100 1100 18800 7 10
17 85/ 53/1300 23/1100 1100 19900 0 15
1700
18 05/ 29/1200 51/1300 1000 20900 5 5
1000
Total Cost

Cost of Bearings=3*18*$16=$864
Cost of Delay Time=(125)*$5=$625
Cost of Downtime during Repair=18
sets*40 min/set*$5/min=$3600
Cost of Repairperson=18 sets*40
min/sets*$15/60 min=$180
Total cost=$(864+625+3600+180)=$5269

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