Concept Selection

for
Deep Water Field Development Planning

By
Mahmoud Etemaddar
Senior Naval Architect
[email protected]
SEVAN MARINE AS

At
TPG4230 - Field Development and Operations
Department of Petroleum Engineering and Applied Geophysics
NTNU Trondheim
26.01.2016

Carrier History: Mahmoud Etemaddar

2013-Now: Sevanmarine AS, Senior Naval Architect

2009-2013: NTNU, Department of Marine Tech. PhD Candidate
2007-2009: IOEC, Head Engineer
2005-2007: Fulton Yacht Shipyard, Naval Architect
1999-2005: MSc in Offshore Engineering

1
Objectives
The main goal:
To introduce a methodology for concept selection for offshore deep water fields
development.
Overview of offshore oil field development planning process.
Main stackholders.
Main decision drivers.
Information and data to be generated.
Sources of uncertainity and methods to handl them.
Necessary information for concept selection.
Structured concept selection methodology.
An example.
Questions

Time Table

Part I: Deep Water Field Development Planning (45 min)

Part II: Concept Selection Process(35-40 min)

Part III: Example (35-40 min)

2
 Why This Topic
My personal concern.
Was not touch upon properly during my education.
One of the main challenges for all operators.
Interdiciplinary task.

What should you expect after this lecture:

You will be familiar with concept selection process for deep
water offshore oil and gas fields.
This presentation only give you an introduction.
You will not be a deep water field developer.

Classification Offshore Oil and Gas Fields

ToreducetheefforttoselectproperTechnology,Strategies,Cost
EstimationMethodsforfielddevelopment.

WaterDepth(production):
ShallowWater:<420m(BullwinkleJacket)
IntermediateWater:420m 1000m
DeepWater:1000mto2000m
UltraDeepWater:>2000m
EnvironmentCondition(100year):
HarshEnvironment:16<Hs,25<WS(NorthseaWOS)
ModerateEnvironments:8<Hs<16,15<WS<25
BenignEnvironment:Hs<8,WS<15(WestAfrica) Hs: Significant Wave Height [m], WS: Wind Speed [m/s]
ReservesSize:
MarginalReservoirs:Reserves<75mmboe
MediumSizeReservoirs:75<Reserves<175mmboe
LargeReservoirs:175<Reserves<1500orlarger

3
Classification Offshore Oil and Gas Fields

ToreducetheefforttoselectproperTechnology,Strategies,Cost
EstimationMethodsforfielddevelopment.

HydrocarbonType:
OilReservoir
GasReservoir
OilandGasReservoir
PressureandTemperature:
LPLT
MPMT
HPHT

Why Deep Water

GlobalEnergyDemandisincreasing.
Oilandgasstillmakeamajorcontributions.

2016Now

HistoricalRecord Forcast
8

4
 Why Deep Water
Onshoreoilproductionhaspassedthepeakanddeclining(4%8%/year).
Shallowwateroffshoreproductionisdeclining.
Onlydeepwater(>1000m)productioncontributionisincreasing:
From9%nowto35%in2030(forcast)

Why Deep Water

DeepwateroffshoreoilandgasE&Pismorechallenging!
Whatmakesoffshoreoilfielddevelopmentdifferentfromonshoreandshallow
wateroffshore?

10

5
 Why Deep Water
Technologyhasbeendevelopedfordeepwaterexplorationand
production,upto3000m.
Whatstillmakesthebusinessdifficultcomparetoonshoreandshallow
waters?
Highercapital,drillingandexplorationcosts.
Highuncertainitiesinmostofcommercialparameters:well
performanceandrecoveryandoilprice.
Substantialrisks:remotearea,harshenvironments,HPHTreservoirs.

11

Fundamental Questions to be Considered

Whenshouldconceptselectionprocessbestarted?

Whatistherequiredinformation?

Howshouldwemakeadecisionbasedontheavailableinformation?

Whoareparticipatingintheconceptselection?

12

6
 Typical Offshore Oil and Gas Field Life Cycle
Conceptselectionisasubsetofamultidiciplinaryprocess:
FIELD DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

Acquire Explore Appraise Select

Government GeologicalStudy Dimensions TechnicallyFeasible

Sizeoftheblock Explorationmethod FieldLife EconomicallyViable
Explorationtech. Characteristics
Location Revenue
Location
BiddingProcess Productionrate Investment
Reservoir
Reserves Highuncertainty

Define Execute Operate Abandon

Engineering Procurement Commissioning Remove:Environment

Construction Startup Reuse:Commercialbenefits.
Transportation O&M
Installation Safety

13

Importance of Field Deveopment Planning

FirstFPU1986:GreenCanyon29SemiSubmersible
1986 1999:12FPUweresanctioned(Spar,SemisubandTLP)bymajor
operators.
2000 2001:BoominusingFPU,14FPUinGOM(11xDryTree+3xWetTree)
independent operatorscametothegame.
2000 2005:13FPUweresanctionedinGOM(10xDryTree+3xWetTree)

Reasonforacceleration:
Highpriceofoilandgas.
LackofoilandgasforUSandUK1970s.
RelativelylowUpsreamcapitalcost.
Highcompetitionforacquiringthenewleasesandincreasingtheproduction.

Movetheoperatorstowardsfasterandcheapersolusions.

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7
 Importance of Field Deveopment Planning
Anassessmentofexistingprojects(2005)revealedthatasignificantpercentage
ofdeepwateroffshoreoilandgasreserveswereunderperformedtechnically
andcommercially,duetopoorlyexecutedfielddevelopmentplanning.
Thereasonwasoperatorsintentionforfasterandcheaperdevelopments.

15

Objective of Field Development Planning

Themainobjectiveoffielddevelopmentplanningistheselectionofplanthat
satisfiesanoperatorscommercial,strategicandriskrequirements,subjectedto
regionalandsiteconstraints.Themainobjectiveistomaximizetherevenuefora
giveninvestment.

UI=NPV/NPI

PLAN

16

8
 Key Elements in FDP

Thisrequirescontinuousandeffectivecollaborationandalignmentamongstmain
stakeholders:Subsurface,WellConstruction,SurfaceFacility,Operationand
CommercialTeams.

O & M Team Commercial Team

Weakcommunication
betweenkeyelements
inearlyyears!!!!

17

Overview of Methodology for Concept Selection

Seismic,welllog,welltests

Optimizingdrillingprogram,
Greatestrecoverywithfewestwells

CONCEPT
SCREENING

CONCEPT
SELECTION

18

9
Main Input Parameters and Their Effects

A. ReservoirGeometryandGeology(greatestimpact)
Recoveryfactorandflowrates.
Wellcount,locationandconstruction.
Secondaryrecoverymethods.
B. FluidProperties
Subseaandtopsidedesign.
Operationandmaintenance(hydrate,waxanddeposits,corrosion).
C. DrillingandCompletion
Wellmanagementandwellinterventionfrequency.
D. RegionalConsiderationsandRegulations:blocksize,infrastructure,contract.
E. SiteCharacteristics:waterdepth,metoceancondition,bathymetry.
F. OperatorStrategy:typeoftheoperatorcompany.

19

Main Input Parameters and Their Effects

Relativeimportanceofthe parameters:ReservoirGeologyandGeometry.

20

10
Main Input Parameters and Their Effects

Relativeimportanceoftheparameters:FluidCharacteristics.

21

Subsurface Team

22

11
 Field Development Phases: Oil and Gas Reservoir

Anoilandgasreservoirischaracterisedby:
Geometry:arealextend,dimensionsandconnectivity.
Rockproperties:lithology,porosityandpermeability.
Hydrocarbontypeandsaturations.
OilWaterandOilGascontactlines.
Fluidphysicalproperties:API,GOR,WOR,Pressure,Temp.
Fluidsystemandchemicalcompositions.
Drivingmechanisms:recoveryfactorandrecoverymethods
Flowrateandpressurevariationovertime

23

Field Development Phases: Exploration

Thefirststepafteracquiringthelease.
Goal: Thegoalistofindaneconomicoilandgasreserves.
Task: SuitablelocationsforexplorationdrillingandTD.
Activity: Wildcatdrilling,setpoutdrillingandmeasurements.
ExplorationTeam: Geologists,geophysicists,drillingengineers,
reservoirengineers,mudloggers
ExplorationMethods: SatelliteSurvey,gravitymeter,magnetometer
andSeismic(horizontalresolution),explorationdrilling,MWD,LWD
(wellloging),coresamples(verticalresolution),welltesting(DST,
WLFT,IPT).
Initialreservoirmodelispreparedfordevelopment:reservoir
geometry,rockproperties,fluidcharacteristics,reservoirpressureand
flowrate.
BigQuestion?
Isitaneconomicaloilandgasreservoir?
($10100mUSDanswer)
Substantialuncertaintyinthemeasurements
andreservoirinformation.

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12
 Field Development Phases: Appraisal
Goal: Improvingthequalityofthedataandreducinguncertainty.
Outcome: Wellfluidcharacteristics,OOIP,Recoverableoil,production
profile,withsufficientuncertainty.
Method: Moreappraisalwellswillbedrilled,moremeasurements.
SubsurfaceTeam: providerobustmodelofareservoirfromseismic
data,appraisalwellsandwelllogsandwelltests.
Tools:Multiplesimulationwithvaryingwellcountandlocationand
type,tuningPDFforstochasticparameters.

ReservoirModel TuningPDF CDF Production&Pressure

25

Field Development Phases: Appraisal

Thereareseveralmethodsandstrategiestoreduceuncertainty.
Thereisatradeoffbetweencapitalcostanduncertainty.
Methods:
Drillstemtest.
Moreappraisalwells.
Extendedwelltest.
Earlyproduction.
Stageddevelopment.
ApplicationDependson:
ReservoirsizeandChar.
OperatorStrategy
AvailableTechnology.

26

13
 Field Development Phases: Appraisal

Comparisonofmethods:

27

A Glance to the Mathematics

OriginaloilinPlace(OOIP)VolumetricMethod

OOIP=7758AhOS/FVFo
Ga =OOIPxGOR
A:ArealExtent(Seismic,drilling,reservoirmodeling)
h:Netpay(Seismic,drilling,reservoirmodeling)
:Porosity(welllog,coresampling)
os:OilSaturation(welltest)
FVFo:OilFormationVolumeFactor

OGIP=43560AhOS/FVFg
Theseparametersarestochastictimevaryingparameters.

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14
 A Glance to the Mathematics

OilProductionRate:

Q=7.08Kh(PePw)/MuxBxln(ReRw)
Q:OilFlowRate(bopd)
h:Netpay(Seismic,drilling,reservoirmodeling)
K:oileffectivepermeability
Pe:FormationPressure
Pw:Wellborepressure
Mu:Viscosity Welltestandcurvefitting(simplemodels)
B:FormationVolumeFactor Exponential
Re:Drainageradius Harmonic
Rw:Wellborepressure Hyperbolic

Sophisticatedmodels:Reservoirmodel
andenergybalancemethods

29

Integration of All Uncertainties

Itisdifficulttomakeadecisiononmultivariablestochasticproblems.

AssuggestedbySPE(SocietyofPetroleumEngineers):
Forfinancialevaluation,uncertaintyinallparametersshouldbeintegratedinto
productionprofile:
Productionprofilesarecalculatedforthreedifferentconfidencelevel:
Proven:90%
Probable:50%
Possible:10%

Fielddevelopmentwillbebasedononeofthesethreevaluesdependingonstrategy
andcommercialriskoftheoperator.
Typicaly50%willbeused.

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15
 Drilling, Completions and Intervention Team

31

Well Construction and Intervention.

WellConstruction:
Construction: Location,depthanddirection,wellcasing.
Typeofthewell: production,waterorgasinjection.
Typeofcompletion: Perforationzoneandsequence,perforation
method.
MainDecision: DVAornonDVA

Directeffectonproductivityandfrequencyofwellintervention.
(OperationCosts)

WellInterventionandWorkover:
Options: FromproductionplatformorWorkoverunit(MODU)
Dependsonwelltype,constructionandreservoirproperties.
Typicalservices: (Heavytolight)Casingrepair,Recompletion,
Replacementofdownholeboostingpump,logging

32

16
 Well Construction and Intervention.

Duringoperation:
Wellhavetobeperiodicallyreenteredforreservoirmanagement,
remediationandrecompletion.

WellCleanup

SandProduction RePerforation

33

Well Construction and Intervention.

Maindecisioniswelltypeandaccess:(locationofXmastree)
Subseawell(wettree)withDVAornonDVA
Surfacewell(drytree)withDVA

WetTree
DryTree

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17
 Well Construction and Intervention.
WetTreeorSubseaWell:
LowerCAPEXbuthigherOPEX
LowerRecovery(5%10%lowerthandrytree)
Lowpressurereservoir.
Greaterflexibilityforwellplacementsandfieldarchitecture.
Suitableforhighuncertaintyreservoirandmultiplesubeconomic
reservoirsdevelopment.
Allhostunitssupportwettree.
DVAandnonDVAarepossible.

35

Well Construction and Intervention.

DryTreeorSurfacewell:
HigherCAPEXbutlowerOPEX.
HigherRecovery
Highpressurereservoir
OnlyFixedplatform,TLP,SPAR
OnlyDVA

Drytreerequiresdirectaccesstothewelland
TopTensionRisre.
FulldrillingpackageonFPUrequiresDryTree
Requirementsforfulldrillingpackagedepends
onthesizeofthereservoirandnumberofthe
wells:(GOM,170mmboe,12wells)

ATLPwithDryTreeSystem
Centralwellcluster
36

18
 Well Construction and Intervention.
Selectiondependsonarealextendandcomplexityofthereservoir.
Smallandcompactreservoir:Surfacetreewithcentralwell
clusterarchitecture.
Stacked,highlyfaultedandarealyextendedreservoirs:subsea
treewithsatellitwellarchitecturetiebacktothemanifold.

smallandcompactreservoir FPSOwithsatellitwellarchitecture
37 stacked,faulted,arealyextendedreservoir

Regional Considerations

38

19
 Regional Considerations
HaveasignificantimpactontheNPVandFDPprocess.
Blocksize:10sq.mileto230sq.Miles:developmentstrategies
Infrastructures: Pipeline,anddevelopmentintheareaandavailable
productionunits.
MarketInfluence:Availabilityofvendorsandengineeringcompanies,
constructionyards.Tidemarket(20002001)increasesthe
developmentcostsandschedule
Localcontents:Effectonlocaleconomy,job,industry
Regulations: Hostcountrydictatesthetermsandconditions,Flagtype
(JohnsActs),singlehull,doublehull,flaringofgas,distancetothe
market,HSEregulations.
Contracttermsandconditionswithhostcountry:Typeofcontract,
Productionsharingcontract,concessioncontract,servicecontract:
Risktotheoperator,capitalcostrecovery,taxesandroyalities.
SustainableDevelopments:Authoritiespreferconceptswhich
providesgreatereconomicalbenefitsandlowerenvironmental
impacts.

39

Site Characteristics and Conditions

40

20
 Site Characteristics and Conditions

Fieldarchitectureandfloatingplatformarehighlyinfluencedby:
WaterDepth: drillingcosts,designandinstallationofrisersand
mooringsystemsandpipeline,temperatureatseabedandflow
assurance.
BathymetryandGeology: Subseaflowlineinstallationcosts,anchor
design
MetoceanCondition: Installationwindow,costoffacilities
Remoteness: increasescostandriskofinstallation,favorsthe
conceptswithminimizeoffshoreinstallationandoperation,multiple
reservoirswithsinglehubplatform

These data should be provided prior to undertaking the facility development plan.

41

Operator Strategies
Strategiesoftheoperatordependsonthetypeandsizeofthe
operatorcompany.
Typeoftheoilcompanies:
IndependentOilCompanies:PremierOil,VNGNorge.
InternationalOilCompanies:Shell,EXON,BP,SLB
NationalOilCompanies:NIOC,Petrobras,Statoil

Operatorpositionsfortradeoffpairs:
CAPEXvsOPEX
StandardizationvsImprovement
ProvenTechnologyvsInnovativeTechnology
MinCapacityvsFutureCapacity

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21
Operator Strategies
IndependentOilCompanies:
15%ofdeepwateroffshoreproduction
Focusonsmalltomediumsizefields(75175MMBOE)
Joinwithotheroperatorstosharetherisk.
Preferleasingstrategyoverowning&
tiebackoverselfproductionfacility.
Shortdevelopmentcycletime.
Smallengineeringteamswithfasttracks.
Firstuserofnewtechnologies,moreflexibletowardsvendors.
Subsurfaceisthelargestteam.
Confidentialityishigh.

43

Operator Strategies
InternationalorIntegratedOilCompanies:
50%ofdeepwateroffshoreproduction
Focusonmediumtolargesizefields(>175MMBOE)
Usingtheirowntechnologyaslongaspossible.
Moreprocessdrivenstagegateswhichincreases
developmentcycletimetofirstoil.
Prefertouseproventechnology.
Standardizedtechnology,lessflexibletowardsvendors.

44

22
Operator Strategies
NationalOilCompanies:
35%ofdeepwateroffshoreproduction.
Focusonglobaldevelopmentplanandbasindevelopment
ratherthanblockdevelopment.
Phaseddevelopmentstrategy.
Earlyproductionuserstoreduceuncertainty.
Higherriskmargins.
Explorationresultscanbepubliclyavailable.

45

Surface Facility Team

46

23
 Concept Screening & Concept Selection Process

AReview:
Conceptselectionisasubsetoffielddevelopmentplanning.
Explorationandappraisalphasesproviderequiredinformationforconceptselection.
Successofconceptselectionphasehighlydependsonthequalityofthedataprovided
inthepreviousphases.

Subsurface,DrillingandCompletionTeam: SurfaceFacilityTeam:
Multipledepletionsenarios: Correspondingdevelopmentsenarios:
Wellcount,locationsandtype. FieldSubseaArchitectures
Drillingandworkoverandwellintervention. Hostunits:Hulltype,mooringandrisers
ProductionProfile. WorkoverandWellinterventionpackage.
Fluidcomposition Exportingmethods.
RecoveryMethods.
DrytreeorWettree CommercialandManagementTeam:
Wellintervention,methodsandfrequency NPV
Drillingrequirementsduringproduction NPI
RiskAssessment

47

Concept Screening & Concept Selection Process

Overal differences ?
Concept Screening Concept Selection

Definition Primary Systems Basic Design (Pre-FEED)

Cost Estimation Class 5 Class 4

Risk Assessment Optional Mandatory

Qualitative Ranking Attribute level Sub-attribute

Stochastic Analysis Mandatory Optional

Simmilarprocess,differentintheaccuracyandlevelofimplementation.

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24
 Concept Screening and Study

FacilityFramingWorkshopwithrepresentativesfromallstakeholders
presentearlyintheselectedphase.

Thepurposeofthisworkshopeis:
Toestablishtheobjectivesoftheproject.
Strategiestoreachthisobjectives.
EstablishDesignBasisandFunctionalRequirements
GenerateConceptDevelopmentMatrix
GenerateDevelopmentScenarios(1080)
Developdecisiondriversandrankingmethodology

49

Concept Screening & Concept Selection Process

MainSteps:
Input:Fielddepletionscenarios

1. Establishbasisofdesignandfunctionalrequirements.
2. Establishrankingcriteriaandmethodology.
3. Identifybuildingblocksfromproventechnologies.
4. ConceptScreening: 1ststagedefinition,Combiningbuildingblocksto
generatedifferentdevelopmentscenarios.(10 80scenarios)ranking
andcomparingdifferentscenarios(510):Qualitativeandquantitative
5. ConceptSelection: 2ndstage definition, rankingandcomparison(510)
6. Usetiebreakersandoperatorstrategyforfinaldecision(ifmorethan1)
7. Internationalbenchmarking
8. Conceptdefinition.

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25
 Concept Screening & Concept Selection Process

Itisatwostepsprocess
ConceptScreening:
Toidentifyallpossiblesolutions(80)
Technicallyfeasible
Economicallyviable:Roughcostestimation(costclass5)
Reducethenumberofscenariosto510forconceptselection
Identifytheoptimumnumberofwells(formarginalfields)

ConceptSelection:
Mainobjective:Maximizingtheprofit.
Selectthebestconcept.
Moreaccuratecostestimationandassessmentisrequired.

51

Design Basis Documents

Intheearlyconceptscreening.
Providestheframeworkandtheconstraintwithinwhichthedevelopmentteammust
operate.
Asaminimumitshouldinclude:
Reservoircharacteristicsanddepletionplan:wellcountandseabedlocations,
fluidproperties,productionprofiles,enhancedrecovery,reservoirmanagement.
(Wellcountmaybefixedornot,sizeanduncertaintyofthereservoir)
DrillingandCompletion:Welllocation,Rigspecification,Durations,workover
typeandfrequencies.
Siteandregionalconditions: Waterdepth,metoceandata,seabedbathymetry
andgeohazards,infrastructureandlogestics,localcontentrequirements.

52

26
 Functional Requirements

Processing:Deckspaceandpayloadsensitivity
StorageandExport:HullandGeometry
WellAccess:Motion
DrillingandWorkover:MotionandDeckSpace
EnhancedRecovery

53

Ranking Strategies and Methods

RankingMethodologyandStrategycanbecategorized:
QuantitativeorQualitative
DeterministicorStochasticassessment
Costestimationaccuracyandclass

QualitativeRanking:
Uncountableparameters:operability,constructability,installationease
Lessaccuracyisrequired.
Technicalissues.

QuantitativeRanking:
Countableparameters:cost,timeandschedule
Moreaccuracyisrequired

54

27
 Ranking Strategies and Methods

EconomicFactors(significantnumberofparametersbutsummerizedby):
NPV:(cashinflowcashoutflow,discountrate)ProductionProfile,FieldLife,
SalePrice
NPI:CAPEX,DRILEX(#well),OPEX,ABEX
UI=NPV/NPI
Stochasticanalysisisrequiredinearlystageduetouncertainty

AACEissuedInternationalRecommendationPracticesonEstimateClassification:
CostClass5:Conceptscreeningandstudy,costdispersion+100%to50%
CostClass4:ConceptSelection,costdispersion+50%to25%

55

Ranking Strategies and Methods

Noneconomicfactors thatdrivesanoperatorsdecision:
ConstructionPeriod
Operability
Fabrication
Reliability Qualitativeor
RiskAssessment SemiQuantitative
Canbeevaluatedintotwolevels: Parameters
Attributes:Conceptscreening
SubAttributes:ConceptSelection
GeneralDecisionDrivers:
Minimizingtechnicalrisk.
Maximizinghydrocarbonrecovery.
Constructability.
Scheduletofirstoil.(expectedexecutionandinstallationperiod)
Expandability:Flexibilityforfutureexpansion.
Flexiblitytoadapttoreservoiruncertainity.

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28
 Concept Screening and Study

ConceptDefinitionforConceptScreening:
Objectiveistodefineallsurfacefacilitycomponentstoalevelsufficientforclass5
(50%to100%)capex,opexandscheduleestimation.
Useavailablecommercial(OGM)orinhousedatabases:
Typicalrequiredinputsare:
1. Basicsubseaequipments:flowlines,manifold,Ch.Tree,risers
2. Numberofwells,Productionprofiles,Hydrocarbonsaleprice
3. Basictopsidecomponentsandcapacities
4. Typeofhostunitandrequireddisplacement

Step2:CalculateNPVandNPI
Step3:ComparedifferentconceptsbasedonUIasafunctionofNPV.(No.Wells)
Step4:ChoosetheconceptswhichpassNPVandUIthreshould.

57

Concept Selection

ConceptDefinitionforConceptSelection:
Objectiveistodefineallsurfacefacilitycomponentstoalevelsufficientfor
class4(+50%to25%),capexopexandscheduleestimation.
Sizeflowlines,risersandpipelinesanddeterminearrivalconditionbysimple
flowassurancesimulation.
Specifythetopside,drillingandworkoverequipmentsandmakeaninitiallayout
byprocesssimulation,PFD,P&ID.
Makeinitialsizingofthehulltosupporttopside,riser,mooringweight.
Performestabilityandmotionanalysistoensureoperabilityandsurvivabilityin
extremeconditionstodesignmooringandrisersystem.
Makeanexecutionplanfordesign,fabrication,integration,transportation,
installationandcommisioningtoestimatecapexandschedule.
Costandscheduleestimation,Compareandrankscenarios.
Riskassessment.
Validatebybenchmarkingagainstsimilarprojects.

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29
 Risk Assessment
Arelativeriskassessmentwillbeperformedincluding:
Technical
Execution
Operational
Safety
Commercialrisks

59

Tie Breakers

Wheneconomicandperformanceindicationsoftwoconceptsare
indistinguishableanoperatorestiebreakerwillbeused:

HSE: Conceptswithlargerdeck,givesgreaterseparationbetweenhazardus
andnonhazardusareas

Flexibility: Scenariosprovidemorefelexibility,bothforcontractingandto
adapttothereservoiruncertainityareprefered.

Mobility: Easeofdecommissioningandrelocationtootherfields

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30
 Building Blocks

BuildingBloks:
Adeepwaterfacilitydevelopment
scenariocanbeconstructedfromthe
followingbuildingblocks:

Subsea Enhanced Drilling

Systems + Recovery + Platforms
+ + +
Production Export Onshore
Platforms Systems Facilities
=
FacilityDevelopmentOptions

61

Building Blocks: Subsea Systems

Asubseasystemsconsistsofanassemblageof:
Treesandwellheads,Manifolds,Jumpers
UmblicalsandFlowlines
PipelineEndTermination
BasicBuildingBlocks:
1. Singlewelltieback
2. Multiplewellsmanifoldedtieback
SubseaArchitectureisdrivenby
Numberofwells
Locationofwells
Distancetohostunit
Subseabathymetry
Fluidpropertiestodeterminetheflowlinedimention.
Arrivalproductionrate,temperatureandpressureatPLEM.

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31
 Building Blocks: Enhanced Recovery

Basicbuildingblocks:
Downholeboosting.
Gaslift
Gasinjection
Waterinjection

Secondaryandenhanced
(tertiary)recoverymethods.
Steamflooding
Firefloodin
Chemicalinjection
Polymerinjection

63

Building Blocks: Drilling Platforms

Dependonthesizeofthereservoirandtypeanddistanceofthewell.

BasicBuildingBlocks:
Tenderassissteddrilling
MODU
PermanentDrillingPlatform.

Satellitewellsystemwithsubsea
well.MODUordrillship.
SingledrillcenterandSurfacewell.
TenderassisstedorDrillingPlatform.

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32
 Building Blocks: Drilling Platforms

MODU TenderAssisstedDrilling FullDrillingPackage

Amirkabir WestAllianceTLP TLPMarsGOM

wetTree dryTree drytree
satelliteWell wellCluster wellcluster
heavyworkover heavyworkover drillingand
payloadlimit workover

65

Building Blocks: Drilling Platforms

GuidelineforearlydecisiononKeyPlatformFunctions

Reservoir Drill Wet or Dry Tree Drilling, Workover or

Centers Development Production Rig
Small Single Wet Production
Medium, stacked or compact Single Dry Workover
Large, staked or compact Single Dry Drilling
Large, areal extensive Multiple Wet Production
Multiple, sub-economic Multiple Wet Production

66

33
 Building Blocks: Host Platforms

Consistsof: Hostplatform:
Topsides. Withdrillingandworkover
Hull. Withonlyworkover
Stationkeepingsystem. Withoutdrillingandworkover
Riserersystem.

67

Building Blocks: Host Platforms

Fundamentaldifferencesbetweenthefloatingplatform:
DrillingandWorkoverCapacities
DryTreeorWetTreeSupport
StorageCapacity
Scalabilitytowaterdepthandpayloads
HeaveandPitchmotions.
Executionrisks:Construction,InstallationandOperation,AbondenmentandReuse.

68

34
 Building Blocks: Host Platforms

69

Building Blocks: Export Systems

Exportmethodsdependson:
Distancetothemarket.
Distancetotheavailableinfrastructures:
pipeline.
Storagecapacityofhostplatform.
Fieldlifeandneighbouringfields.

Possiblemethods:
OilandGasPipeline.
Directshuttletankeroffloading(noonsitestorage)
Shuttletankeroffloading(withFSUorFPSO)
LNGcarrier(FLNG)

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35
 Building Blocks: Onshore Facilities
TankfarmandLoadingterminal.
LNGPlant.
Gastoliquidplant.
Gastowireplant.

71

Example: Concept Screening

CaseStudy:Agasfield
Afterexplorationandappraisal
Initialnumberofscenarioes:1x4x4x2X4=128

Field Development Concept Matrix

Hydrocarbon Hub Well Type Transport # Wells
Gas Submersible Vertical Tanker 4
Fixed Directional Pipeline 6
Platform
Subsea Horizontal 8
FLNG Multi 10

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36
 Example: Concept Screening
Technicalfeasibilityleadstofinal12scenarios:
4subseawellsystems:4,6,8,10
3Hostplatform:Tieback,Jacket,Semisub

Semisubmersible

Subeatiebacktoonshore Jacket

73

Example: Concept Screening

NPIarecalculatedfromtotalcost:
CAPEX
DRILLEX
OPEX
ABEX

Costofinfrastructure,drilling,operationandabandonment
4 Wells 6 Wells 8 Wells 10 Wells
Tie Back 1372 1651 1930 2209
Semi 1695 1974 2253 2532
Jacket 2045 2324 2603 2882

NPVarecalculatedfrom:
Hydrocarbonsaleprice
ProductionprofileP50fornumberofwells

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37
 Example: Concept Screening
NPVandUIshouldbemaximizedsimultaneously.

Tiebacksystemgivesthe
maxNPV.
Forjacketandsemi,NPVand
UIaremaximized
simulatneouslywith6wells.
Fortieback6wellsshould
beselectedasthereisarisk
of25%productionlossifone
wellisbelowitsexpected
productionrate.

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Example: Concept Screening

Thereishighuncertaintyinthecostestimationwhichneedtobe
capturedbyaMontecarlosimulationforNPVandNPI.
Atriangulardistributionisasignedtothemaininputparameters
basedonthemin,meanandmaxvaluerecommendedbyexperts.
CDFforNPVwillbecalculatedforeachcase.

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 Example: Concept Screening
Thismethodonlyreliesoneconomicalindexes.
Ifweincludethenoneconomicparametersuchasscheduletofirstoil,
resultwillbedifferent.
SubseaTiebackandJacket:3years
Semisubmersible:5years

Economicevaluationaloneisnotbesufficientforfinaldecision.

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Example: Concept Selection

Forconceptselection,scenarioesshouldbecomparedinsubattributelevels.

AnalyticalHierarchyProcess(AHP):
Adecitionmakingmethodtoprioritizeconceptsunderqualitativemultipleattributes
decisiondrivers.
Wehavetoselecttheattributesthatcanmakedifferencebetweenalltheconcepts.
Step1:Selectionofattributesandsubattributeswithbrainstormingmultidiciplinary
workshop(drilling,sybseasystems,flowassurance,pipeline,floatingsystem,process)

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Example: Concept Selection
SelectionofAttributesandSubattributes

Attributes Sub-attributes
Operability Easy to start or shut down
Production management
Gas quality at the delivery point
Operation flexibility
Fabrication & Installation Easy to fabricate
Easy to install
Availability of drilling equipments
Time to First Production& Costs Total cost
Utility Index
Time to first production
Reliability Prevention of flow assurance events
Inspection, maintenance, repair
redundancy

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Example: Concept Selection

Rankingtheselectedattributesaccordingtotheimportanceinthe
exploitationsystems.
Acriteriaforweightisdefined:

Weights for attributes and sub attributes comparison

Absolutely more important 9
Very strongly more 7
important
Strongle more important 5
Weakly more important 3
Equally important 1
Weakly less important 1/3
Strongly less important 1/5
Very strongly less important 1/7
Absolutely less important 1/9

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 Example: Concept Selection
Makeapairwisecomparisonandweighttheattributes.
Normalaizethecolumnsandsumuptherowsinnormalizedmatrix.

Weightofeachattribueisthefinalresult.

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Example: Concept Selection

Rankthefielddevelopmentconceptsfrom1to4foreachsubattribute.

Normalizethe
rankingby
attributeandsub
attributeweights.

Sumupthe
resultsforeach
concepttoget
finalranking
result.

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 Example: Concept Selection
Theconceptselectionbasedoneconomicindexes:
TieBack
SemiSub
Jacket

Theconceptselectionbasedonnoneconomicindexes:
Jacket
SemiSub
TieBack

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Example: Concept Selection

InMDMmethod,engineeringjudgmentisusedtodefinetheattributes
andweights.
Thiscanvarydependingontheexperienceofthepeople,timeframe,
availableinformation.
Effectofvariationintheattributeweightsmustbestudiedwith
stochasticanalysis.
Defineatriangulardistributionforattributeweights.
Performemontcarlosimulation,10,0000samples.

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 Example: Concept Selection

RankingMDMresultsafterstochasticanalysis:
ShowstherangeofMDMvalueforeachconceptandprobability.
JacketgivesthehighestMDM.
Themedianvaluesforallthreeconceptsare:
Jacket=3.32
Semi=3.23
TieBack=3.07

Thisstochasticanalysis
confirmsthedeterministic
Results.

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Example: Concept Selection

RiskAssessment:
Tofinalizetheresultsfromconceptselectionriskassessmentshouldbeperformed.
Itisasemiquantitativeassessment.

RiskDefinition:ProbabilityofoccurrenceXseverityofconcequence

Procedure:
Makealistofallpossibleriskevents:previousrecordsorFMEAworkshope
Determinetheprobabilityofoccurrenceforeachevent
Specifytheriskattributeswhichwillbeaffectedbyriskevents:
Healthandsafety
Environment
AssetValue
Projectschedule

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 Example: Concept Selection

Probabilityofoccerrence:
Useascaleof1to5.
Forqalitativeprobabilityassignmentrisktakeraredividedintotogroup:
Aggresiverisktakers
Conservativerisktakers

Ariskfactoringprofileisdefinedtodistinguishrisktakers.

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Example: Concept Selection

Impactseverityofriskeventsonattributesisapprisedbyagroupofexpertsfrom
theestablishedguidelineandoperatorssafetypolicy.
Impactseverityappraisalisalsoweightedbythesamefactoringcurve.

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 Example: Concept Selection

Theresultedtablewillbe:WeightedprobabilityofoccerrenceXweightedimpact
severityXWeightoftheattributes.Themeansquarerootgivesfinalriskweightof
eachevent.

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Example: Concept Selection

Thepreviousprocedurewillbeperformedforallconcepts.
Thersultsfromriskassessmentcanbecombinedwithmultiatributedecision
modelandNPVcalculationforfinalselection

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 Conclusions

Conceptselectionfordeepwaterfielddevelopmentisamultidisciplinarytask
andneedscontributionfrom:Subsurface,drillingandcompletion,surface
facility,operationandmaintenance,managementandcommercialteam.

Astructuredmethologytogenerate,screenandselecttherightdevelopment
conceptisrequired.

Conceptselectionisperformedwhentheuncertaintyinthecriticalparameters
whichdeterminethecommercialsuccessoftheprojectishigh.Addressing
subsurfacedatauncertaintyinthefacilitydesignphaseisimportant.

Deepwaterfacilitydesignishighlydependsonsubsurfacedata.

SuccessofFDPhighlydependson:Qualityofinformation,skillsofsubsurface
team,technologyandreservoirmodeling.

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References

Ref 1. Selecting the Right Field Development Plan for Global Deepwater
Development, DOT 2012, Richard D Souza and Shiladitya Basu, Ray Fales
Ref 2. Field Development Planning and Floating Platform Concept Selection for
Global Deepwater Developments, OTC 2011, Richard D Souza and Shiladitya
Basu, Granherne
Ref 3. Concept Selection for Hydrocarbon Field Development Planning. J. Efrain
Rodiguez-Sanchez, J. Martin Godoy- Alcantra, Israel Ramirez-Antonio, Nov
2012,
Ref 4. Concept Selection and Design Principles, CH1, Floating Structures: a guide
for design and analysis, N.D.P. Barltrop, ISBN 1870553357
Ref 5. Challenges and Decisions in Developing Multiple Deepwater Fields, OTC
2004, B.F. Thurmond, D. B. L. Walker,
Ref 6. System Selection for Deepwater Production Installation, OTC 2001, Paul L.
Dorgant, Stephen W. Balient, George
Ref 7. Managing Subsurface Uncertaintiesin Deepwater Facilities Design, Souza
R.D, Vitucci M., DOT 2013, Woodlands, Texas
Ref 8. Guidance on the Content of Offshore Oil and Gas Field Development
Plans,UK government Service and Information Website
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 Acknowledgement

Prof.MilanStanko,Dep.PetroleumEngineeringandAppliedGeophysics
Prof.MichaelGolan,Dep.Petroleum EngineeringandAppliedGeophysics

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Thanks
for
Your Attention

Questions ?

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