Scribd
Upload
43 views

Forecasting 2 Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons, Inc

This document outlines the course Economics 132 on business and economic forecasting. The course will be taught by Geoffrey M. Ducanes and covers topics such as time series analysis, univariate and multivariate forecasting models, and evaluation methods. Students will learn forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing, ARIMA, and VAR models. Assessment includes a midterm, final exam, computer exercises, and class participation. The course references listed textbooks on time series analysis and forecasting.

Uploaded by

yousirneighm
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
43 views

Forecasting 2 Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons, Inc

This document outlines the course Economics 132 on business and economic forecasting. The course will be taught by Geoffrey M. Ducanes and covers topics such as time series analysis, univariate and multivariate forecasting models, and evaluation methods. Students will learn forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing, ARIMA, and VAR models. Assessment includes a midterm, final exam, computer exercises, and class participation. The course references listed textbooks on time series analysis and forecasting.

Uploaded by

yousirneighm
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

Economics 132

Business and Economic Forecasting

Instructor: Geoffrey M. Ducanes


Email address: [email protected]
Consultation hours: Wednesday and Friday 1-2:30pm and 4-5:30pm
Room number: Rm. 235 Encarnacion Hall

References:
Franses, P., D. van Dijk, and A. Opschoor. 2014. Time Series Models for Business and Economic
Forecasting 2nd Edition. Cambridge University Press.
Montgomery, D., C. Jennings, and M. Kulahci. 2015. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and
Forecasting. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Diebold, F. X. 2001. Elements of Forecasting 2nd Edition. South-Western College Publishing.

Softwares:
Stata
EVIEWS

Course Outline:
1. Introduction to Forecasting
a. What to forecast?
b. Why forecast?
c. Limits of forecasting

2. Statistics Background for Forecasting


a. Time series data
b. Stationarity
c. Transformation
d. Trend and seasonal adjustments
e. Evaluation of forecasting models

3. Univariate Time Series Models


a. Exponential Smoothing Methods
i. First-order exponential smoothing
ii. Second and higher-order exponential smoothing
b. ARIMA Models
i. MA process
ii. AR process
iii. ARMA process
iv. ARIMA process

4. Multivariate Time Series Models


a. Forecasting using leading indicators
b. Cointegration and the error correction model
c. VAR Model
d. VECM model
5. Other Forecasting Topics
a. ARCH and GARCH models
b. Regime-switching models
c. Granger Causality

Requirements:
Mid-term Exam (Sections 1 to 3) 35%
Final Exam (Sections 4 to 5) 35%
Computer exercises 20%
Class participation 10%

Grade Equivalents
Raw Score Grades
<55 5.00
50.0 54 3.00
55.0 59 2.75
60.0 64 2.50
65.0 69 2.25
70.0 - 76 2.00
77.0 82 1.75
83.0 89 1.50
90.0 95 1.25
95.0 + 1.00

You might also like