Research Proposal PDF
Research Proposal PDF
SEPTEMBER 2016
DECLARATION
This research project proposal is my original work and has not been submitted to any
other university for award of a degree.
Signature………………………………………….Date………………………………….
This research project proposal has been submitted for examination with my authority as
the university supervisor
Signature………………………………………….Date………………………………….
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION................................................................................................................ i
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................ iii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1
1.1 Background of the Study .............................................................................................. 1
1.1.1 Financial Risk Management............................................................................... 2
1.1.2 Financial Performance of Banks........................................................................ 3
1.1.3 Risk Management and Financial Performance.................................................. 4
1.1.4 Islamic Banking in Kenya.................................................................................. 4
1.2 Research Problem ......................................................................................................... 5
1.3 Research Objective ....................................................................................................... 7
1.4 Value of the Study ........................................................................................................ 7
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 21
APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 26
Appendix 1: List of Commercial banks offering Islamic banking services...................... 26
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ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
APT Arbitrage pricing theory
CAPM Capital asset pricing model
CAR Capital adequacy ratio
CBK Central bank of Kenya
COSO Committee of Sponsoring Organizations
ERM Enterprise Risk Management
IMF International monetary fund
NIM Net interest margin
ROA Return on Assets
ROE Return on Equity
US United States
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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
The concept of financial risk management is anchored on enterprise risk management theory,
modern portfolio theory, capital asset pricing theory and arbitrage pricing theory. Enterprise Risk
Management (ERM) is a framework that focuses on adopting a systematic and consistent
approach to managing all of the risks confronting an organization. Modern portfolio theory
(MPT) is a theory of investment which attempts to maximize portfolio expected return for a
given amount of portfolio risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given level of expected return,
by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets (Mignola & Ugoccioni, 2006). The
capital asset pricing model (CAPM) helps us to calculate investment risk and what return on
investment we should expect while the arbitrage pricing theory predicts a relationship between
the returns of a portfolio and the returns of a single asset through a linear combination of many
independent macro-economic variables.
For many years, Islamic banks have witnessed double digit growth rates, surpassing their
conventional peers. According to Kearney (2014), at first it seemed all well for Islamic banking
industry. There was ample room for growth as Islamic banking rarely exceeds a third of total
market share. Several potential markets with large muslim population remain largely untapped.
Such include India and the common wealth of independent state countries, made up of former
soviet republics. In addition, overall banking penetration in many of country’s core markets is
still low, with low banking penetration levels in many core industry markets.
1
1.1.1 Financial Risk Management
Financial risks are only one category of a broad field of risks. Furthermore financial risks can be
classified into three subclasses credit risk, liquidity risk, and market risk. Market risk can be
classified into four broad classes, foreign currency, interest rate, commodity, and equity risk. For
financial risk management there are many different kinds of definitions. Some researchers define
it whether very broadly or narrowly which leads that there is no globally accepted definition of
financial risk management (Yakup & Asli, 2010). However financial risk is such a complex and
extensive concept that financial risk-management practitioners need often specialize themselves
only to certain part of financial risk management as for instance foreign exchange risk.
However Ekwall (2010) has relatively narrow view to risk management, he finds risk
management as the risk handling process. Panos et al (2009) define risk management as the
process whereby decisions are made to accept a known or anticipated risk and/or the
implementation of actions to reduce the effects or likelihoods of those risks. Furthermore in
Jansson and Norrman’s (2004) view risk management leads to avoiding, reducing, transferring,
sharing or taking the risk. Also it is good to notice that risk management is a very broad term due
to the wide range of risks and thus there are several categories of risk management as financial
risk management operational risk management, supply chain risk management (Mishkin, 2007).
Boston Consulting Group (2001) defines financial risk management as a sequence of four
processes which include identification of events into one or more broad categories such as
market, credit, operational and other risks into specific sub-categories assessment of risks using
data and risk mode, monitoring and reporting of the risk assessments on a timely basis and
control of these risks by senior management. Jansson and Norrman (2004) define risk
management process as focusing on understanding the risks, and minimizing their impact.
Kuusela and Ollikainen (1998) describe the risk management process as Risk identification,
measurement and analyzing, controlling and finance, evaluation and cost calculations.
Financial risk management has become a booming industry starting ’90 as a result of the
increasing volatility of financial markets, financial innovations (financial derivatives), the
growing role played by the financial products in the process of financial intermediation, and
important financial losses suffered by the companies without risk management systems (for
example, Enron and WorldCom), (Gheorghe & Gabriel, 2008). Shafiq and Nasr (2010) also
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notes that Risk Management as commonly perceived does not mean to minimize risk; in fact, its
goal is to optimize the risk-reward trade off. And, the role of risk management is to assure that
an institution does not have any need to engage in a business that unnecessarily imposes risk
upon it.Talel (2010) notes that risk management is still evolving in Kenya and therefore many
institutions lack adequate information on effective risk management methodologies
Profitability ratios are often used as indicators of credit analysis in banks, since profitability is
associated with result management performance. ROE and ROA are the most commonly used
ratios. Foong (2008) indicated that efficiency in banks can be measured using ROE which
illustrates to what extent banks use reinvested income to generate future profits. Joetta (2007)
presented the purpose of ROE as a measurement of amount of profit generated by the equity in
the firm. He also mentions that ROE is an indicator of the efficiency to generate profits from
equity. This capability is connected to how well the assets are utilized to produce profits as well.
The firm’s credit policies have an integral influence on the level debtors, measuring the
manager’s position to invest optimally in its debtors and be able to trade profitably with
increased revenue (Van Horne, 1998).
According to Khrawish (2011), profit is the ultimate goal of commercial banks. All the strategies
designed and activities performed thereof are meant to realize this grand objective. However, this
does not mean that commercial banks have no other goals. Commercial banks could also have
additional social and economic goals. However, the intention of this study is related to the
financial performance aspect of Islamic banks in Kenya. To measure the financial performance of
commercial banks there are variety of ratios used, of which, Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on
Equity (ROE) are the major ones. ROE is a financial ratio that refers to how much profit a company
3
earned compared to the total amount of shareholder equity invested or found on the balance sheet.
ROE is the ratio of Net Income after Taxes divided by Total Equity Capital. ROA is also another
major ratio that indicates the profitability of a bank. It is a ratio of income to its total asset. It
measures the ability of the bank management to generate income by utilizing company assets at their
disposal (Khrawish, 2011).
Given the importance of risk management in the functioning of financial institutions, the
efficiency of a bank’s risk management is expected to significantly influence its financial
performance. An extensive body of banking literature (Santomero & Babbel, 1997) argues that
risk management is paramount to the financial performance of banks. According to Pagano
(2001), risk management is an important function of banking institutions in creating value for
shareholders and customers. The corporate finance literature has linked the importance of risk
management with the shareholder value maximization hypothesis. This suggests that a firm will
engage in risk management policies if it enhances shareholder value (Ali & Luft, 2002).
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and services in Kenya (CBK, 2015). Islamic Banking prohibits interest but allows profit sharing.
Therefore Sharia compliant financing products have element of “trading” and “holding of fixed
assets” as the bank has to buy and sell financed assets. However, Section 12 of the Banking Act
restricts trading and holding of fixed assets and thus the Banking Act was amended in 2006 to
enable exemption of innovative products such as Sharia compliant banking financing products
from trading and holding of fixed assets restrictions.
Barclays' La Riba account was the first-ever Shari'ah-compliant account in Kenya. The account
was set up in December 2005. However, Kenya’s first Islamic bank, First Community Bank
(FCB) was granted a banking license in May 2007. The bank started operations in May 2008.
Apart from FCB, Gulf African Bank is the other bank in Kenya with a license to operate as a
fully-fledged Islamic bank. Other banks in Kenya such as Kenya Commercial Banks, Barclays
Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Chase Bank and National Bank have Islamic windows. The
study is focusing on Islamic Banking because much of the research that has been done on the
effect of risk management on financial performance has been on conventional banks. Therefore,
there exists knowledge on how risk management in Islamic Banks affects their financial
performance as they employ different banking approaches from conventional banks (CBK,
2015).
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Financial institutions have faced numerous difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons.
The major causes of serious banking problems continue to be directly related to poor risk
management practices, lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties or lack of attention
to changes in economic or other circumstances that lead to deterioration in the credit standing of
a bank’s counterparties (Gil-Diaz, 2008). Despite these facts, over the years there has been an
increase in the number of significant bank problems in both, matured as well as emerging
economies (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2014). Banks should now have a keen
awareness of the need to identify, measure, monitor and control various risks for survival as well
as their progress (Oloo, 2009).
Some of the global studies on risk management and financial performance include BNM (2008)
who established that the sturdiness of the financial institutions is of vital significance as observed
during the most modern US financial crisis of 2008. The IMF (2008) anticipated total losses to
reach $945 billion globally by April 2008. World's largest banks announced write-downs of $274
billion in total on the first anniversary of the credit crunch. While US subprime mortgages and
leveraged loans may reach $1 trillion according to some estimates of July 2008 (Kollewe, 2008).
A new rulebook by the name of Basel III was formulated as a repercussion of the 2007-2009
financial crises so as to take in a number of measures in order to reinforce the resilience of the
banking sector (BCBS, 2009). The review of the local studies shows that there have been several
studies on risk management in Kenya. Kabiru (2002) did a study on the relationship between
credit risk assessment practices and the level of non-performing loans of Kenyan banks. Ongechi
(2009) analyzed the risk management strategies used by Fina Bank Limited in lending to SMEs.
Kithinji (2010) analysed credit risk management and profitability of commercial banks in Kenya.
Muasya (2009) analyzed the impact of non- performing loans on the performance of the banking
sector in Kenya in the time of global financial crises while Wanjira (2010) studied the
relationship between non- performing loans management practices and financial performance of
commercial banks in Kenya. These studies have primarily focused on the practices used by
commercial banks in dealing with credit risk management aspects with no reference to Islamic
Banks. Yet there are unique risks associated with Islamic Banks such as shariah non-compliance
risk, displaced commercial risk, equity investment risk and rate of return risk. None of the
studies have dealt with the comprehensive risk management practices that address all the aspects
of business risks including operational, financial, compliance and governance risks and their
effect on the financial performance of the Islamic banks in Kenya. This study therefore seeks to
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fill this gap by establishing the effect of financial risk management on the financial performance
of Islamic banks in Kenya. The study therefore seeks to answer the following research question:
What is the effect of financial risk management on the financial performance of Islamic banks in
Kenya?
The study will offer valuable contributions from both a theoretical and practical standpoint.
From a theoretical standpoint, it contributes to the general understanding of risk management
and its effect on the financial performance of Islamic banks and by extension other conventional
banks in Kenya.
The study may enable Islamic Banks management in Kenya to improve their risk management
process and to adopt efficient strategies to improve firm financial performance through the risk
management processes. This may enable the Islamic Banks to perform better and to grow their
businesses and maintain a competitive advantage.
The regulator (Central Bank of Kenya) may use this study to design and improve on the current
risk management framework for all commercial banks in Kenya. The study may also add to the
existing body of knowledge on risk management. This may benefit academicians and other
researchers by providing materials that form the basis for further research on risk management in
the banking sector.
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CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This chapter focuses on review of theoretical, conceptual, and empirical literature along the
study’s conceptualization. First, the chapter presents literature on theoretical underpinnings of
the study followed by conceptual and empirical literature on financial risk management and
financial performance of commercial banks. The chapter closes with a summary and knowledge
gap for this study.
In conducting ERM, the following are listed as some of the areas or aspects of the organization
that a risk manager needs to look into namely: the people, intellectual assets, brand values,
business expertise and skills, principle source of profit stream and the regulatory environment
8
(Searle, 2008). This will help organization to balance the two most significant business
pressures; the responsibility to deliver succeed to stakeholders and the risks associated with and
generated by the business itself in a commercially achievable way. By doing so, the risk manager
is constantly aware of the risks it faces and therefore constantly monitors its exposure and be
positioned to change strategy or direction to ensure the level of risks it takes is acceptable.
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a theory of investment which attempts to maximize portfolio
expected return for a given amount of portfolio risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given
level of expected return, by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets (Mignola &
Ugoccioni, 2006). Since the 1980s, companies have successfully applied modern portfolio theory
to manage market risk. Many companies are now using value at risk models to manage their
interest rate and market risk exposures. Unfortunately, however, even though credit risk remains
the largest risk facing most companies, the practice of applying modern portfolio theory to risk
has lagged (Linbo, 2004).
Companies recognize how credit concentrations can adversely impact financial performance. As
a result, a number of institutions are actively pursuing quantitative approaches to credit risk
measurement. The banking industry is also making significant progress toward developing tools
that measure credit risk in a portfolio context. They are also using credit derivatives to transfer
risk efficiently while preserving customer relationships. Portfolio quality ratios and productivity
indicators have been adapted (Chopra & Sodhi, 2004). The combination of these developments
has precipitated vastly accelerated progress in managing credit risk in a portfolio context.
Traditionally, organizations have taken an asset-by-asset approach to risk management. While
each company’s method varies, in general this approach involves periodically evaluating the
quality of service exposures, applying a service risk rating, and aggregating the results of this
analysis to identify a portfolio’s expected losses. The foundation of the asset-by-asset approach
is a sound risk review and internal risk rating system (Mignola & Ugoccioni, 2006).
Specific risk is the risk which is unique to an individual asset. It represents the component of an
asset's return which is uncorrelated with general market moves (Lintner, 1965). “No matter how
much we diversify our investments, it's impossible to get rid of all the risk. As investors, we
deserve a rate of return that compensates us for taking on risk. The capital asset pricing model
(CAPM) helps us to calculate investment risk and what return on investment we should expect.”
It took nearly a decade after the introduction of CAPM for investment professionals to begin to
view it as an important tool in helping investors understands risk. The key element of the model
is that it separates the risk affecting an asset's return into two categories. The first type is called
unsystematic, or companies-specific, risk. The long-term average returns for this kind of risk
should be zero. The second kind of risk, called systematic risk, is due to general economic
uncertainty. CAPM states that the return on assets should, on average, equal the yield on a risk-
free bond held over that time plus a premium proportional to the amount of systematic risk the
stock possesses (Markowitz, 1952).
The treatment of risk in the CAPM refines the notions of systematic and unsystematic risk
developed by Harry M. Markowitz in the (1950s). Unsystematic risk is the risk to an asset's
value caused by factors that are specific to an organization, such as changes in senior
management or product lines. For example, specific senior employees may make good or bad
decisions or the same type of manufacturing equipment utilized may have different reliabilities at
two different sites. In general, unsystematic risk is present due to the fact that every company is
endowed with a unique collection of assets, ideas and personnel whose aggregate productivity
may vary (Markowitz, 1952).
APT uses the risky asset's expected return and the risk premium of a number of macro-economic
factors. The theory describes the price where a mispriced asset is expected to be. Arbitrageurs
use the APT model to profit by taking advantage of mispriced securities. A mispriced security
will have a price that differs from the theoretical price predicted by the model. By going short an
overpriced security, while concurrently going long the portfolio the APT calculations were based
on, the arbitrageur is in a position to make a theoretically risk-free profit (Ross, 1976). The basis
of arbitrage pricing theory is the idea that the price of a security is driven by a number of factors.
These can be divided into two groups: macro factors and company’s specific factors. Ross'
formal proof shows that the linear pricing relation is a necessary condition for equilibrium in a
market where agents maximize certain types of utility. The subsequent work, which is surveyed
below, derives either from the assumption of the preclusion of arbitrage or the equilibrium of
utility-maximization. A linear relation between the expected returns and the betas is tantamount
to an identification of the stochastic discount factor. The APT is a substitute for the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM) in that both assert a linear relation between assets’ expected returns and
their covariance with other random variables (Ross, 1976).
Arbitrage pricing theory does not rely on measuring the performance of the market. Instead, APT
directly relates the price of the security to the fundamental factors driving it. The problem with
this is that the theory in itself provides no indication of what these factors are, so they need to be
empirically determined. Obvious factors include economic growth and interest rates. For
companies in some sectors other factors are obviously relevant as well - such as consumer
spending for retailers. The potentially large number of factors means more betas to be calculated.
There is also no guarantee that all the relevant factors have been identified. This added
complexity is the reason arbitrage pricing theory is far less widely used than CAPM (Sharpe,
2012).
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2.3 Determinants of Financial performance in Commercial Banks
Lyman and Charles (2008) defined financial performance as the operational strength of a firm in
relation to its revenue and expenditure as revealed by its financial statements. The financial
performance of banks is expressed in terms of profitability. Profitability is a company’s ability to
earn a reasonable profit on the owner’s investment.
Flamini et al, (2009) argue that large banks with greater domestic market share operating in a
non-competitive environment may enjoy higher profits as they pay lower deposit rates to
depositors who demand lower deposits rates because they perceive big banks to be safer.
Furthermore, Goddard et al (2004) mentions that large banks in highly concentrated market may
obtain abnormal profits if they are able to exert market power in the wholesale or capital
markets.
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2.3.3 Bank Liquidity
Liquidity implies how quickly a bank can convert its assets into cash at face value to satisfy its
maturing liabilities (those of depositors and borrowers) as they fall due even under adverse
conditions. Banks with sufficient investments in liquid assets have a greater ability to weather
short-term liquidity crisis. Additionally, without adequate cash resources to meet short-term
liquidity requirements, a bank will find it impossible to continue its operation even if its capital
or solvency remains acceptable (Rahman et al, 2009).
However, there remains the question of what is the optimal balance of liquid assets given the
risk-return trade-off of holding a relatively high proportion of liquid assets. Generally, higher
level of liquidity makes banks less vulnerable to failure but is also usually associated with lower
rates of return and may result in lost profitable investment opportunities, which would influence
bank profitability negatively. Martinez Peria and Mody (2013) explain that high liquidity ratios,
either self-imposed for prudential reasons or as a result of regulation (i.e. reserve or liquidity
requirements) inflict a cost on banks since it implies that banks have to give up holding higher
yielding assets.
The higher the operating profits to total income (revenue) the more the efficient management is
in terms of operational efficiency and income generation. The other important ratio is that proxy
management quality is expense to asset ratio. The ratio of operating expenses to total asset is
expected to be negatively associated with profitability. Management quality in this regard,
determines the level of operating expenses and in turn affects profitability (Athanasoglou et al,
2005).
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2.3.5 Credit Risk
Credit risk is broadly defined as the risk of financial loss arising from borrowers' failure to honor
their contractual obligations. For banks, credit risk arises principally from lending activities but
also may arise from various other activities where banks are exposed to the risk of counter party
default, such as trading and capital market debt-based securities. The importance of the quality
of bank loans portfolio stems from the fact that poor loans quality may affect bank performance.
Miller and Noulas (1997) suggest that the higher the exposure to high-risk loans, the higher the
accumulation of unpaid loans and the lower the profitability. Duca and McLaughlin (1990),
using a sample of U and S banks conclude that variations in bank profitability are largely
attributable to variations in loan loss provisions as they find little difference between the net
income of the sample banks after netting out loan loss provision Poor asset quality is perceived
to cause capital erosion and increase credit and capital risks.
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to set better performance targets, and enable bank managers to allocate capital more efficiently
across their business units. The study also contributed in terms of how commercial banks can
better employ their current capital and evaluate their future performance.
The study by Drzik (2005) showed that following the 1991 recession, financial institutions
invested heavily in risk management capabilities. These investments targeted financial (credit,
interest rate, and market) risk management. It also showed that these investments helped reduce
earnings and loss volatility during the 2001 recession, particularly by reducing name and
industry-level credit concentrations. He also suggests that the industry faced major risk
challenges (better treatment of operational, strategic, and reputational risks and better integration
of risk in planning, human capital management, and external reporting) that were not addressed
by recent investments and that would require development of significant new risk disciplines.
Ariffin and Kassim (2009) analyzed the relationship between risk management practices and
financial performance in the Islamic banks in Malaysia. In achieving this objective, the study
assessed the current risk management practices of the Islamic banks and linked them with the
banks’ financial performance. The study used both the primary (survey questionnaires) and
secondary data (annual reports). The results of the study shed some light on the current risk
management practices of the Islamic banks in Malaysia. By assessing their current risk
management practices and linking them with financial performance, the study hoped to
contribute in terms of recommending strategies to strengthen the risk management practices of
the Islamic banks so as to increase the overall competitiveness in the Islamic banking industry.
Al-Smadi (2010) applied risk index to measure exposure to risk of several Jordanian banks,
using data over 1995 to 2008. His findings indicated that three major macroeconomic variables
were statistically significant. They were GDP, inflation rate and market interest rate. He
provided evidence that internal variables had effects on credit risk more than external variables.
He found that the relationship between GDP and credit risk was significantly negative, while it
was positive on inflation and also positive on interest rate. There were five bank-specific
variables: NPL, loan concentration in risky sectors, loan growth, bank size and net interest
margin in their study. These five variables had significant relationship with credit risk. Loan
growth and loan concentration in risky sectors had positive effects as well. Bank size had a
negative effect on credit risk.
15
By testing the influence of risk factors in determining banks’ performance, the study by Angbazo
(1997) found that default risk is a determinant of banks’ net interest margin (NIM) and the NIM
of super- regional banks and regional banks are sensitive to interest rate risk as well as default
risk. By investigating the determinants of NIM for 614 banks of 6 European countries and US
from 1988 to 1995, the study finds that interest rate volatility has a positive significant impact on
the banks performance (Angbazo, 1997).
Kithinji (2010) analysed credit risk management and profitability of commercial banks in Kenya
and concluded that the bulk of the profits of commercial banks was not influenced by the amount
of credit and non-performing loans suggesting that other variables other than credit and non-
performing loans had an impact on profits. Muasya (2009) analyzed the impact of non-
performing loans on the performance of the banking sector in Kenya in the time of global
financial crises. The findings confirmed that non- performing loans do affect commercial banks
in Kenya.
Wanjira (2010) studied the relationship between non- performing loans management practices
and financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya. The study concluded that there was a
need for commercial banks to adopt non-performing loans management practices. Kimutai,
(2006) investigated risk management in the Kenya Oil industry. The study established that the
Working Capital (WC) requirement had gone up because of rising crude prices and upfront taxes
payments and secondly unit margins had shrunk overtime. As a survival strategy the industry
was forced to diversify to other means and ways to stay afloat. From the foregoing, oil sector due
to its nature had to engage in credit for market share and sales volume. The multiplier effect was
credit risk coupled with high liquidity needs.
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CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
This chapter deals with how the research will be conducted in order to achieve the stated
objective. It presents the research design and methodology that will be used to carry out the
research. The chapter also discusses the study population, data collection methods and data
analysis techniques.
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2015) for the Islamic banks and conventional banks with Islamic windows in Kenya. The study
will adopt panel data model in data collection and analysis.
Y = β0 + β1 X1 + β2 X2 + β3 X3 + β4 X4 + β5 X5 + β6 X6 + ε
Where:
Y = Financial performance (as measured by ROA)
β0 = constant: It defines the level of credit rating without inclusion of predictor variables
β1 – β5 = regression coefficients
X1 = Credit risk
X2 = Insolvency risk
X3 = Interest sensitivity ratio
X4 = Capital adequacy
X5 = Operating efficiency
X6 = Control variables
ε = Unexplained Variables i.e. error term, it represents all the factors that affect the dependent
variable but are not included in the model either because they are not known or difficult to measure.
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3.5.2 Operationalization of Study Variables
Variable Measure
Y Financial performance ROA (Return on Assets) = [net income / total assets]
X1 Credit risk [NPLs / Financing Book]
X2 Insolvency risk liquidity ratio= [liquid assets / total deposits]
X3 Interest sensitivity ratio [ratio of interest sensitive assets/ interest sensitive liabilities]
X4 Capital adequacy [core capital / total risk weighted assets]
X5 Operating efficiency operating expenses/ net operating income
X6 Control variables size of the bank
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APPENDICES
Appendix 1: List of Commercial banks offering Islamic banking services
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