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I. Time Series For 2000-2007 & Mean

The document analyzes unemployment rate time series data from 2000-2007 and 1980-2000. It uses Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to forecast unemployment rates from 2008-2014. The forecasts predict unemployment will remain around 4923 with 80% confidence intervals ranging from 4770-5076 over the period and 95% confidence intervals from 4689-5156.

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Siddharth Shah
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68 views

I. Time Series For 2000-2007 & Mean

The document analyzes unemployment rate time series data from 2000-2007 and 1980-2000. It uses Holt-Winters exponential smoothing to forecast unemployment rates from 2008-2014. The forecasts predict unemployment will remain around 4923 with 80% confidence intervals ranging from 4770-5076 over the period and 95% confidence intervals from 4689-5156.

Uploaded by

Siddharth Shah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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I.

Time Series for 2000-2007 & Mean


> a=read.csv("unemployed.csv")

> b=a[53:60,]

>b

[1] 5161 5154 5019 4928 5038 4959 4922 4923

> ts1=ts(b,frequency=1,start=c(2000,1),end=c(2007,1))

> ts1

Time Series:

Start = 2000

End = 2007

Frequency = 1

[1] 5161 5154 5019 4928 5038 4959 4922 4923

> summary(ts1)

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.

4922 4927 4989 5013 5067 5161

> plot.ts(ts1)
II. Time Series 1980-2000 & Mean
> c=a[33:53,]

>c

[1] 3635 3797 3919 4071 4175 4256 4456 4591 4898 5076 4986 4903 4987 4959 4996

[16] 4949 5035 5134 5042 4954 5161

> ts2=ts(c,frequency=1,start=c(1980,1),end=c(2000,1))

> ts2

Time Series:

Start = 1980

End = 2000

Frequency = 1

[1] 3635 3797 3919 4071 4175 4256 4456 4591 4898 5076 4986 4903 4987 4959 4996

[16] 4949 5035 5134 5042 4954 5161

> summary(ts2)

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.

3635 4256 4949 4666 4996 5161


> plot.ts(ts2)
III. Forecast 2008-2014
> d=ts(a,frequency=1,start=c(1948,1),end=c(2007,1))

> plot.ts(d)

e=HoltWinters(d,beta=FALSE,gamma=FALSE)

Holt-Winters exponential smoothing without trend and without seasonal component.

Call:

HoltWinters(x = d, beta = FALSE, gamma = FALSE)

Smoothing parameters:
alpha: 0.9999525

beta : FALSE

gamma: FALSE

Coefficients:

[,1]

a 4923

> f=forecast.HoltWinters(e,h=7)

>f

Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95

2008 4923 4770.353 5075.647 4689.547 5156.453

2009 4923 4707.130 5138.870 4592.856 5253.144

2010 4923 4658.617 5187.383 4518.661 5327.339

2011 4923 4617.718 5228.282 4456.111 5389.889

2012 4923 4581.685 5264.315 4401.003 5444.996

2013 4923 4549.109 5296.891 4351.182 5494.818

2014 4923 4519.152 5326.848 4305.367 5540.633


> plot.forecast(f)
IV. Conclusion
In 2008 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4770.353 and highest unemployment is
5075.647. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4689.547 and highest is 5156.453.

In 2009 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4707.130 and highest unemployment is
5138.870. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4592.856 and highest is 5253.144.

In 2010 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4658.617 and highest unemployment is
5187.383. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4518.661 and highest is 5327.339.

In 2011 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4617.718 and highest unemployment is
5228.282. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4456.111 and highest is 5389.889.

In 2012 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4581.685 and highest unemployment is
5264.315. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4401.003 and highest is 5444.996.

In 2013 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4549.109 and highest unemployment is
5296.891. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4351.182 and highest is 5494.818.

In 2014 at confidence level of 80% lowest unemployment is 4519.152 and highest unemployment is
5326.848. For confidence level of 95% lowest unemployment level is 4305.367 and highest is 5540.633.

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