M A R T I N REES

JUST S I X N U M B E R S

The Deep Forces That Shape the Universe

A Member of the
Perseus Books Group
First published in 1999 in Great Britain
By Weidenfeld & Nicolson
Copyright O 2000 by Martin Rees
Published by Basic Books,
A Member of the Perseus Books Group
All rights reserved Printed in the United States of
America. No part of this book may be reproduced in
any manner whatsoever without written permission
except in the case of brief quotations embodied
in critical articles and reviews. For information,
address Basic Books, 10 East 53rd Street, New York,
NY 10022-5299
Typeset at The Spartan Press Ltd,
Lymington, Hants
A CIP catalog record for this book is available &om
the Library of Congress
ISBN 0-465-03672-4
 CONTENTS
............................................................................................

List of Illustrations vii

Preface ix
Acknowledgements xi

1. Thecosmosandthemicroworld
2. Our cosmic habitat I: planets, stars and life
3. The large number ?V: gravity in the cosmos
4. Stars, the periodic table, and &
5. Our cosmic habitat II: beyond our galaxy
6. The fine-tuned expansion: dark matter and
7. The n umber h: is cosmic expansion slowing
or speeding?
8. Primordial ripples: the n umber Q
9. Our cosmic habitat III: what lies beyond our
h orizon ?
10. Three dimensions (and more)
11. Coincidence, providence - or m ultiverse?
Notes
Index
 LIST O F ILLUSTRATIONS
.............................................................................................

The ouraborus 8
Cubic Space Division by M. C . Esher 58
Angels and Devils by M. C . Esher 60
The trajectory of an expanding universe 87
The emergence of structure in an expanding universe 111
Time chart of our universe 119
The Mandlebrot Set 149
 PREFACE

Astronomy is the oldest numerical science, crucial in ancient

times for calendars and navigation. It is now experiencing a
surge of discovery. The enhanced focus on time as we enter
the new millennium is boosting interest in our cosmic
environment. Astronomy is still the science of numbers, and
this book is the story of six that are crucial for our universe,
and our place in it.
On the blurred boundaries of ancient maps, cartographers
wrote 'There be dragons'. After the pioneer navigators had
encircled the globe and delineated the main continents and
oceans, later explorers filled in the details. But there was no
longer any hope of finding a new continent, or any expecta-
tion that the Earth's size and shape would ever be drastically
reappraised.
At the end of the twentieth century we have, remarkably,
reached the same stage in mapping our universe: the grand
outlines are now coming into focus. This is the collective
achievement of thousands of astronomers, physicists and
engineers, using many different techniques. Modern tele-
scopes probe deep into space; because the light from distant
objects takes a long time journeying towards us, they also give
us glimpses of the remote past; we have detected 'fossils' laid
down in the first few seconds of cosmic history. Spacecraft
have revealed neutron stars, black holes, and other extreme
phenomena that extend our knowledge of the physical laws.
These advances have vastly stretched our cosmic horizons.
x PREFACE

There has, in parallel, been an exploration of the microworld

within the atom, yielding new insights into the nature of
space on the tiniest of scales.
The picture that emerges - a map in time as well as in space
- is not what most of us expected. It offers a new perspective
on how a single 'genesis event' created billions of galaxies,
black holes, stars and planets, and how atoms have been
assembled - here on Earth, and perhaps on other worlds -
into living beings intricate enough to ponder their origins.
There are deep connections between stars and atoms, be-
tween the cosmos and the microworld. This book describes -
without technicalities -the forces that control us and, indeed,
our entire universe. Our emergence and survival depend on
very special 'tuning' of the cosmos - a cosmos that may be
even vaster than the universe that we can actually see.
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
......................................*.........................*.......................*...

My first debt is to the colleagues with whom I have researched

and studied over the years. But I'm equally grateful for the
penetrating cosmological discussions I've had with non-
specialists: these always bring a fresh perspective, by high-
lighting the 'big picture', and reminding me that the most
important questions are still unanswered. Special thanks,
therefore, to David Hart, Graeme Mitchison, Hans Rausing,
and Nick Webb. The present book is intended for general
readers of this kind. I've tried, while avoiding technicalities,
to set new discoveries in context, to distinguish well-based
claims from speculations, and to emphasise the mysteries that
lie beyond.
I thank John Brockman for inviting me to contribute to the
Science Masters series, and for his forbearance during the
book's slow gestation. Toby Mundy and Emma Baxter of
Weidenfeld and Nicolson were very supportive throughout
the editing and production process. I'm grateful to them; also
to Richard Sword and Joop Schaye for preparing the illus-
trations, to Brian Amos for the index, and to Judith Moss for
secretarial help.
 CHAPTER I
............................................................................................
T H E COSMOS A N D T H E MICROWORLD

Man is . . .related inextricably to all reality, known and

unknowable . . .plankton, a shimmering phosphorescence on
the sea and the spinning planets and an expanding universe, all
bound together by the elastic string of time. It is advisable to
look from the tide pool to the stars and then back to the tide
pool again.
John Steinbeck, The Log from the Sea of Cortez

SIX NUMBERS
........................
Mathematical laws underpin the fabric of our universe - not
just atoms, but galaxies, stars and people. The properties of
atoms - their sizes and masses, how many different kinds
there are, and the forces linking them together - determine the
chemistry of our everyday world. The very existence of atoms
depends on forces and particles deep inside them. The objects
that astronomers study - planets, stars and galaxies - are
controlled by the force of gravity. And everything takes place
in the arena of an expanding universe, whose properties were
imprinted into it at the time of the initial Big Bang.
Science advances by discerning patterns and regularities in
nature, so that more and more phenomena can be subsumed
into general categories and laws. Theorists aim to encapsulate
the essence of the physical laws in a unified set of equations,
2 JUST SIX NUMBERS

and a few numbers. There is still some way to go, but progress
is remarkable.
This book describes six numbers that now seem especially
significant. Two of them relate to the basic forces; two fix the
size and overall 'texture' of our universe and determine
whether it will continue for ever; and two more fix the
properties of space itself:

The cosmos is so vast because there is one crucially

important huge number W in nature, equal to 1,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. This number
measures the strength of the electrical forces that hold
atoms together, divided by the force of gravity between
them. If W had a few less zeros, only a short-lived miniature
universe could exist: no creatures could grow larger than
insects, and there would be no time for biological evolution.

Another number, E, whose value is 0.007, defines how

firmly atomic nuclei bind together and how all the atoms on
Earth were made. Its value controls the power from the Sun
and, more sensitively, how stars transmute hydrogen into
all the atoms of the periodic table. Carbon and oxygen are
common, whereas gold and uranium are rare, because of
what happens in the stars. If E were 0.006 or 0.008, we
could not exist.

The cosmic number 0 (omega) measures the amount of

material in our universe - galaxies, diffuse gas, and 'dark
matter'. tells us the relative importance of gravity and
expansion energy in the universe. If this ratio were too high
relative to a particular 'critical' value, the universe would
have collapsed long ago; had it been too low, no galaxies or
stars would have formed. The initial expansion speed
seems to have been finely tuned.

Measuring the fourth number, (lambda), was the biggest

scientific news of 1998. An unsuspected new force - a cos-
mic 'antigravity' - controls the expansion of our universe,
 THE COSMOS A N D THE MICROWORLD 3

even though it has no discernible effect on scales less than a

billion light-years. It is destined to become ever more
dominant over gravity and other forces as our universe
becomes ever darker and emptier. Fortunately for us (and
very surprisingly to theorists), h is very small. Otherwise its
effect would have stopped galaxies and stars from forming,
and cosmic evolution would have been stifled before it
could even begin.

The seeds for all cosmic structures - stars, galaxies and

clusters of galaxies - were all imprinted in the Big Bang.
The fabric of our universe depends on one number, Q,,
which represents the ratio of two fundamental energies and
is about 11100,000 in value. If Q were even smaller, the
universe would be inert and structureless; if Qwere much
larger, it would be a violent place, in which no stars or solar
systems could survive, dominated by vast black holes.
The sixth crucial number has been known for centuries,
although it's now viewed in a new perspective. It is the
number of spatial dimensions in our world, 8,and equals
three. Life couldn't exist if 8 were two or four. Time is
a fourth dimension, but distinctively different from the
others in that it has a built-in arrow: we 'move' only
towards the future. Near black holes, space is so warped
that light moves in circles, and time can stand still.
Furthermore, close to the time of the Big Bang, and also on
microscopic scales, space may reveal its deepest under-
lying structure of all: the vibrations and harmonies of
objects called 'superstrings', in a ten-dimensional arena.

Perhaps there are some connections between these numbers.

At the moment, however, we cannot predict any one of them
from the values of the others. Nor do we know whether some
'theory of everything' will eventually yield a formula that
interrelates them, or that specifies them uniquely. I have
highlighted these six because each plays a crucial and dis-
tinctive role in our universe, and together they determine how
4 JUST SIX NUMBERS

the universe evolves and what its internal potentialities are;

moreover, three of them (those that pertain to the large-scale
universe) are only now being measured with any precision.
These six numbers constitute a 'recipe' for a universe.
Moreover, the outcome is sensitive to their values: if any one
of them were to be 'untuned', there would be no stars and no
life. Is this tuning just a brute fact, a coincidence? Or is it the
providence of a benign Creator? I take the view that it is
neither. An infinity of other universes may well exist where
the numbers are different. Most would be stillborn or sterile.
We could only have emerged (and therefore we naturally now
find ourselves) in a universe with the 'right' combination. This
realization offers a radically new perspective on our universe,
on our place in it, and on the nature of physical laws.
It is astonishing that an expanding universe, whose starting
point is so 'simple' that it can be specified by just a few numbers,
can evolve (if these numbers are suitable 'tuned') into our
intricately structured cosmos. Let us first set the scene by
viewing these structures on all scales, from atoms to galaxies.

T H E COSMOS T H R O U G H A Z O O M LENS
..,........................................*..*.**.**.*****.**.*..**.
Start with a commonplace 'snapshot' - a man and woman -
taken from a distance of a few metres. Then imagine the same
scene from successively more remote viewpoints, each ten
times further away than the previous one. The second frame
shows the patch of grass on which they are reclining; the third
shows that they are in a public park; the fourth reveals some
tall buildings; the next shows the whole city; and the next-
but-one a segment of the Earth's horizon, viewed from so high
up that it is noticeably curved. Two frames further on, we
encounter a powerful image that has been familiar since the
1960s: the entire Earth - continents, oceans, and clouds -
with its biosphere seeming no more than a delicate glaze and
contrasting with the arid features of its Moon.
 THE COSMOS AND THE MICROWORLD 5

Three more leaps show the inner Solar System, with the
Earth orbiting the Sun further out than Mercury and Venus;
the next shows the entire Solar System. Four frames on (a
view from a few light-years away), our Sun looks like a star
among its neighbours. After three more frames, we see the
billions of similar stars in the flat disc of our Milky Way,
stretching for tens of thousands of light-years. Three more
leaps reveal the Milky Way as a spiral galaxy, along with
Andromeda. From still further, these galaxies seem just two
among hundreds of others - outlying members of the Virgo
Cluster of galaxies. A further leap shows that the Virgo Cluster
is itself just one rather modest cluster. Even if our imaginary
telephoto lens had the power of the Hubble Space Telescope,
our entire galaxy would, in the final frame, be a barely
detectable smudge of light several billion light-years distant.
The series ends there. Our horizon extends no further, but it
has taken twenty-five leaps, each by a factor of ten, to reach
the limits of our observable universe starting with the
'human' scale of a few metres.
The other set of frames zooms inward rather than outward.
From less than one metre, we see an arm; from a few
centimetres - as close as we can look with the unaided eye -
a small patch of skin. The next frames take us into the fine
textures of human tissue, and then into an individual cell
(there are a hundred times more cells in our body than there
are stars in our galaxy). And then, at the limits of a powerful
microscope, we probe the realm of individual molecules: long,
tangled strings of proteins, and the double helix of DNA.
The next 'zoom' reveals individual atoms. Here the fuzzi-
ness of quantum effects comes in: there is a limit to the
sharpness of the pictures we can get. No real microscope can
probe within the atom, where a swarm of electrons surrounds
the positively charged nucleus, but substructures one hun-
dred times smaller than atomic nuclei can be probed by
studying what happens when other particles, accelerated to
speeds approaching that of light, are crashed into them. This
is the finest detail that we can directly measure; we suspect,
6 JUST SIX NUMBERS

however, that the underlying structures in nature may be

'superstrings' or 'quantum foam' on scales so tiny that they
would require seventeen more zooms to reveal them.'
Our telescopes reach out to a distance that is bigger than a
superstring (the smallest substructure postulated to exist
within atoms) by a sixty-figure number: there would be sixty
frames (of which present measurements cover forty-three) in
our 'zoom lens' depiction of the natural world. Of these, our
ordinary experience spans nine at most - from the smallest
things our eyes can see, about a millimetre in size, to the
distance logged on an intercontinental flight. This highlights
something important and remarkable, which is so obvious that
we take it for granted: our universe covers a vast range of scales,
and an immense variety of structures, stretching far larger, and
far smaller, than the dimensions of everyday sensations.

L A R G E N U M B E R S A N D DIVERSE SCALES
.....................................................................
We are each made up of between loZ8and loZ9atoms. This
'human scale' is, in a numerical sense, poised midway
between the masses of atoms and stars. It would take roughly
as many human bodies to make up the mass of the Sun as
there are atoms in each of us. But our Sun is just an ordinary
star in the galaxy that contains a hundred billion stars
altogether. There are at least as many galaxies in our
observable universe as there are stars in a galaxy. More than
1 0 ' ~atoms lie within range of our telescope.
Living organisms are configured into layer upon layer of
complex structure. Atoms are assembled into complex mole-
cules; these react, via complex pathways in every cell, and
indirectly lead to the entire interconnected structure that
makes up a tree, an insect or a human. We straddle the cosmos
and the microworld - intermediate in size between the Sun, at
a billion metres in diameter, and a molecule at a billionth of a
metre. It is actually no coincidence that nature attains its
 THE COSMOS AND THE MICROWORLD 7

maximum complexity on this intermediate scale: anything

larger, if it were on a habitable planet, would be vulnerable to
breakage or crushing by gravity.
We are used to the idea that we are moulded by the
microworld: we are vulnerable to viruses a millionth of a
metre in length, and the minute DNA double-helix molecule
encodes our total genetic heritage. And it's just as obvious that
we depend on the Sun and its power. But what about the still
vaster scales? Even the nearest stars are millions of times
further away than the Sun, and the known cosmos extends a
billion times further still. Can we understand why there is so
much beyond our Solar System? In this book I shall describe
several ways in which we are linked to the stars, arguing that
we cannot understand our origins without the cosmic context.
The intimate connections between the 'inner space' of the
subatomic world and the 'outer space' of the cosmos are
illustrated by the picture in Figure 1.1 - an ouraborus,
described by Encyclopaedia Britannica as the 'emblematic
serpent of ancient Egypt and Greece, represented with its tail
in its mouth continually devouring itself and being reborn
from itself. . . [It] expresses the unity of all things, material
and spiritual, which never disappear but perpetually change
form in an eternal cycle of destruction and re-creation'.
On the left in the illustration are the atoms and subatomic
particles; this is the 'quantum world'. On the right are
planets, stars and galaxies. This book will highlight some
remarkable interconnections between the microscales on the
left and the macroworld on the right. Our everyday world is
determined by atoms and how they combine together into
molecules, minerals and living cells. The way stars shine
depends on the nuclei within those atoms. Galaxies may be
held together by the gravity of a huge swarm of subnuclear
particles. Symbolized 'gastronomically' at the top, is the
ultimate synthesis that still eludes us - between the cosmos
and the quantum.
Lengths spanning sixty powers of ten are depicted in the
oumborus. Such an enormous range is actually a prerequisite
 THE COSMOS AND THE MICROWORLD 9

billion years. Even before our Sun and its planets could form,
earlier stars must have transmuted pristine hydrogen into
carbon, oxygen and the other atoms of the periodic table. This
has taken about ten billion years. The size of the observable
universe is, roughly, the distance travelled by light since the
Big Bang, and so the present visible universe must be around
ten billion light-years across.
This is a startling conclusion. The very hugeness of our
universe, which seems at first to signify how unimportant we
are in the cosmic scheme, is actually entailed by our existence!
This is not to say that there couldn't have been a smaller
universe, only that we could not have existed in it. The expanse
of cosmic space is not an extravagant superfluity; it's a con-
sequence of the prolonged chain of events, extending back before
our Solar System formed, that preceded our arrival on the scene.
This may seem a regression to an ancient 'anthropocentric'
perspective - something that was shattered by Copernicus's
revelation that the Earth moves around the Sun rather than
vice versa. But we shouldn't take Copernican modesty (some-
times called the 'principle of mediocrity') too far. Creatures
like us require special conditions to have evolved, so our
perspective is bound to be in some sense atypical. The vastness
of our universe shouldn't surprise us, even though we may still
seek a deeper explanation for its distinctive features.

C A N W E H O P E TO
UNDERSTAND O U R UNlVERSE?
.....................................................
The physicist Max Planck claimed that theories are never
abandoned until their proponents are all dead - that science
advances 'funeral by funeral'. But that's too cynical. Several
long-running cosmological debates have now been settled;
some earlier issues are no longer controversial. Many of us
have often changed our minds - I certainly have. Indeed, this
book presents a story that I would once myself have thought
10 JUST SIX NUMBERS

surprising. The cosmic perspective I'll describe is widely

shared, even though many would not go the whole way with
my interpretation.
Cosmological ideas are no longer any more fragile and
evanescent than our theories about the history of our own
Earth. Geologists infer that the continents are drifting over the
globe, about as fast as your fingernails grow, and that Europe
and North America were joined together 200 million years
ago. We believe them, even though such vast spans of time are
hard to grasp. We also believe, at least in outline, the story of
how our biosphere evolved and how we humans emerged.
But some key features of our cosmic environment are now
underpinned by equally firm data. The empirical support for a
Big Bang ten to fifteen billion years ago is as compelling as the
evidence that geologists offer on our Earth's history. This is an
astonishing turnaround: our ancestors could weave theories
almost unencumbered by facts, and until quite recently
cosmology seemed little more than speculative mathematics.
A few years ago, I already had ninety per cent confidence
that there was indeed a Big Bang - that everything in our
observable universe started as a compressed fireball, far hotter
than the centre of the Sun. The case now is far stronger:
dramatic advances in observations and experiments have
brought the broad cosmic picture into sharp focus during the
1990s, and I would now raise my degree of certainty to ninety-
nine per cent.
'The most incomprehensible thing about the universe is
that it is comprehensible' is one of Einstein's best-known
aphorisms, expressing his amazement that the laws of
physics, which our minds are somehow attuned to under-
stand, apply not just here on Earth but also in the remotest
galaxy. Newton taught us that the same force that makes
apples fall holds the Moon and planets in their courses. We
now know that this same force binds the galaxies, pulls some
stars into black holes, and may eventually cause the Andro-
meda galaxy to collapse on top of us. Atoms in the most
distant galaxies are identical to those we can study in our
 THE COSMOS AND THE MICROWORLD ) I

laboratories. All parts of the universe seem to be evolving in a

similar way, as though they shared a common origin. Without
this uniformity, cosmology would have got nowhere.
Recent advances bring into focus new mysteries about the
origin of our universe, the laws governing it, and even its
eventual fate. These pertain to the first tiny fraction of a
second after the Big Bang, when conditions were so extreme
that the relevant physics isn't understood - where we wonder
about the nature of time, the number of dimensions, and the
origin of matter. In this initial instant, everything was
squeezed to such immense densities that (as symbolized in
the ouraborus) the problems of the cosmos and the micro-
world overlap.
Space can't be indefinitely divided. The details are still
mysterious, but most physicists suspect that there is some kind
of granularity on a scale of centimetres. This is twenty
powers of ten smaller than an atomic nucleus: as big a decrease
- as many frames in our 'zoom lens' depiction - as the increase
in scale from an atomic nucleus to a major city. We then
encounter a barrier: even if there were still tinier structures,
they would transcend our concepts of space and time.
What about the largest scales? Are there domains whose
light has not yet had time to reach us in the ten billion years or
so since the Big Bang? We plainly have no direct evidence.
However, there are no theoretical bounds on the extent of our
universe (in space, and in future time), and on what may come
into view in the remote future - indeed, it may stretch not
just millions of times further than our currently observable
domain, but millions of powers of ten further. And even that
isn't all. Our universe, extending immensely far beyond our
present horizon, may itself be just one member of a possibly
infinite ensemble. This 'multiverse' concept, though specula-
tive, is a natural extension of current cosmological theories,
which gain credence because they account for things that we
do observe. The physical laws and geometry could be different
in other universes, and this offers a new perspective on the
seemingly special values that the six numbers take in ours.
 CHAPTER 2
............................................................................................

OUR COSMIC H A B I T A T I:
PLANETS, STARS A N D LIFE

Damn the Solar System. Bad light; planets too distant; pestered
with comets; feeble contrivance; could make a better one
myself.
Lord Jeffrey

PROTOPLANETS
............................
There is a great cloud in the constellation of Orion, containing
enough atoms to make ten thousand Suns. Part of it is a
glowing nebula, heated by bright blue stars; the rest is cold,
dark and dusty. Within it are warm blobs, emitting no light
but generating heat that can be picked up by telescopes fitted
with infrared detectors. These blobs are each destined to
become stars but are at present 'protostars', contracting under
their own gravity. Each is encircled by a disc of gas and dust.
These discs are not unexpected. The dusty cloud in Orion,
though denser than most of the expanses between the stars, is
still very rarefied, and to form a star some of this gas must
contract so much that its density rises a billion billion times.
Any slight spin would be amplified during a collapse (a
cosmic version of the 'spin-up' when ice skaters pull in their
arms) until centrifugal forces prevent all the material from
joining the star. Surplus material would be left behind,
spinning around each newly formed star. The resultant discs
 OUR COSMIC H A B I T A T I: PLANETS, STARS A N D LIFE 13

are the precursors of planetary systems: dust particles would

collide frequently, sticking together to build up rocky lumps;
these in turn would coalesce into larger bodies, which merge
to make planets. Our Solar System formed in this way, from a
'protosolar disc'; other stars formed similarly to our Sun, and
there is every reason to expect them also to be orbited by
retinues of planets.
This scenario, supported by the actual evidence of discs
around newly formed stars, has superseded the 'catastrophist'
theories popular at the beginning of the twentieth century,
which envisaged planetary formation as a rare and special
accident. It was thought that our Sun underwent a close
encounter with another star - a freakishly rare event because
the stars are, on average, so widely dispersed from each other
- and that the star's gravitational pull extracted a plume of gas
from the Sun; the plume supposedly condensed into 'beads'
that each became a planet.
Astronomers in earlier centuries, however, were no more
averse than we are today to the idea of other Solar Systems.
Back in 1698 Christiaan Huygens, a Dutch scientist who did
pioneering work in optics, wrote 'Why [should] not every one
of these stars and suns have as great a retinue as our sun, of
planets, with their moons to wait upon them?'

O T H E R SOLAR SYSTEMS?
.........
o.................................

Fully formed planets orbiting other stars are harder to detect

than their precursor discs. A real highlight of the late 1990s
has been the first compelling evidence that planets are indeed
common. The principle here is very simple. An observer
viewing our Sun from a distance of (say) forty light-years
couldn't see any of the planets orbiting it, even with the use of
a telescope as powerful as the largest we have on Earth.
Nevertheless, the existence of Jupiter (the heaviest planet)
could be inferred by careful measurements of the Sun's light.
14 JUST SIX NUMBERS

This is because the Sun and Jupiter are both pivoting around
their centre of mass, the so-called 'barycentre'. The Sun is
1,047 times more massive than Jupiter. The barycentre is
closer by just that factor to the Sun's centre than to Jupiter's (it
actually lies beneath the Sun's surface); the Sun consequently
moves about a thousand times more slowly than Jupiter does.
Its actual motion is more complicated, because of extra
wobbles induced by the other planets, but Jupiter is much
the heaviest planet and exerts the dominant effect. By
analysing the light very carefully, astronomers have detected
small 'wobbles' in the motion of other stars, which are
induced by orbiting planets, just as Jupiter induces such
motions in our Sun.
The spectrum of starlight reveal patterns due to the
distinctive colours emitted or absorbed by the various kinds
of atom (carbon, sodium, etc) that stars are made of. If a star
moves away from us, its light shifts towards the red end of the
spectrum, as compared from the colours emitted by the same
atoms in the laboratory - this is the well-known Doppler
effect (the analogue, for light, of the way the sound from a
receding siren shifts to a lower pitch). If the star is approach-
ing, there is a shift to the blue end of the spectrum. In 1995,
two astronomers at the Geneva Observatory, Michel Mayor
and Didier Queloz, discovered that the Doppler shift in 51
Pegasi, a nearby star resembling our Sun, was going up and
down very slightly as though it was moving in a circle:
coming towards us, then receding, then approaching again,
and so on in a regular fashion. The implied speed was about
fifty metres per second. They inferred that a planet about the
size of Jupiter was orbiting it, causing the star to pivot around
the centre of mass of the combined system. If the invisible
planet were one-thousandth of the star's mass, its orbital
speed would be fifty kilometres per second - a thousand times
faster than the star is moving.
Geoffrey Marcy and Paul Butler, working in California,
have been the champion planet-hunters of the late 1990s.
Their instruments can record wavelength shifts of less than
 O U R C O S M I C H A B I T A T I: PLANETS, STARS A N D LIFE I5

one part in a hundred million; they can thereby measure the

Doppler effect even when the speeds are only one hundred-
millionth of the speed of light - three metres per second - and
they have found evidence for planets around many stars.
These inferred planets are all big ones, like Jupiter. But this
merely reflects the limited sensitivity of their measurements.
An Earth-like planet, weighing a few hundred times less than
Jupiter, would induce motions of only a few centimetres per
second, and the Doppler shift would then be only about one
part in ten billion - too small to be discerned by the
techniques that have discovered the bigger planets.1
It should be noted in passing that the telescopes used by the
planet-seekers are of moderate size, with mirrors only about
two metres in diameter. It is gratifying - and sometimes
obscured by the hype that accompanies the biggest projects -
that not all important discoveries demand the largest and
most expensive equipment. Persistent and ingenious scien-
tists can still achieve a lot with innovative but modest
instruments on the ground.
The actual layout of our Solar System is the outcome of
many 'accidents'. Rocky asteroids whose orbits cross the
Earth's still pose a genuine threat. For example, the impact of
a ten-kilometre asteroid, leaving a huge undersea crater near
Chicxulub in the Gulf of Mexico, had worldwide climatic
effects that probably sealed the dinosaurs' fate sixty-five
million years ago; and smaller impacts, still severe enough to
cause local devastation, have been more common. But impacts
were far more frequent when the Solar System was young,
because most of the original protoplanetary bodies within it
have by now either been destroyed or kicked out. Our Moon
was torn from Earth by a collision with another protoplanet -
the intense cratering on its surface bears witness to the
violence of its early history. Uranus probably underwent a
shattering oblique collision soon after it formed; it is other-
wise hard to understand why it spins around an axis almost in
the plane of its orbit, in contrast to the other planets, whose
axes are more or less aligned perpendicular to that plane.
16 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Pictures beamed back by artificial space probes reveal that all

the planets of our own Solar System (and some of their larger
moons) are highly distinctive worlds.
It's unlikely that other planetary systems would have the
same number of planets, in the same configurations, as our
Solar System. Several of those already found have a large
Jupiter-like planet closer to the parent star than Mercury (the
innermost member of our Solar System) is to our Sun. This is
partly an observational bias: heavy planets in fast short-
period orbits are easier to detect. The heavy planets already
detected may well be accompanied by smaller Earth-like
ones.
Only rather special planets could harbour life that in any
way resembled what we have on Earth. Gravity must pull
strongly enough to prevent their atmosphere from evaporating
into space (as would have happened to an atmosphere on our
Moon, if it ever had one). For water to exist on their surfaces,
planets must be neither too hot nor too cold, and therefore the
right distance from a long-lived and stable star. Their orbits
must be stable (which they would not be if, for instance, their
path was repeatedly crossed by a Jupiter-like planet in an
eccentric orbit). The high 'hit rate' of the planet-seekers
suggests that there are planets around a high proportion of
Sun-like stars in our galaxy. Among these billions of
candidates, it would be astonishing if there were not many
planets resembling the young Earth.
In the US, NASA's somewhat messianic chief executive,
Dan Goldin, has urged that the quest for Earth-like planets - a
quest to actually make an image of them rather than just infer
them indirectly - should become a main thrust of the space
programme. Mere detection of such a faint speck - in Carl
Sagan's phrase, a 'pale blue dot' - is a challenge that may take
fifteen years to meet. Large mays of telescopes would have to
be deployed in space.
The dim light from a distant world conveys information
about cloud cover, the nature of its surface (land or oceans),
and perhaps daily or seasonal changes. From the spectrum of
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT I: PLANETS, STARS A N D LlFE I7

the planet's light, we could infer what gases existed in its

atmosphere. Our Earth's atmosphere is rich in oxygen; it
didn't start out that way, but was transformed by primitive
bacteria in its early history. The most interesting question, of
course, is whether this may have happened elsewhere: even
when a planet offers a propitious environment, what is the
chance that simple organisms emerge and create a biosphere?

F R O M M A T T E R TO LlFE
.........................................
Only in the last five years of this millennium have we learnt
for sure that there are worlds in orbit around other stars. But
we are still little closer to knowing whether any of them
harbours anything alive. This question is one for biologists,
not for astronomers. It is much more difficult to answer, and
there seems no consensus among the experts.
Life on earth has occupied an immense variety of niches.
The ecosystems near hot sulphurous outwellings in the deep
ocean bed tell us that not even sunlight is essential. We still
don't know how or where life got started. A torrid volcano is
now more favoured than Darwin's 'warm little pond'; but it
could have happened deep underground, or even in dusty
molecular clouds in space.
Nor do we know what the odds were against it happening
here on Earth - whether life's emergence is 'natural', or
whether it involves a chain of accidents so improbable that
nothing remotely like it has happened on another planet
anywhere else in our galaxy. That's why it would be so crucial
to detect life, even in simple and vestigial forms, elsewhere in
our Solar System. Mars is still, as it has been since the
nineteenth century, the main focus of attention: during the
coming years, an armada of space probes is being launched
toward the 'red planet' to analyse its surface, to fly over it, and
(in later missions) to return samples to Earth. Life could also
exist in the ice-covered oceans of Jupiter's frozen moons,
18 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Europa and Callisto, and there are plans to land a submersible

probe that could explore beneath the ice.
If life had emerged twice within our Solar System, this
would suggest that the entire galaxy would be teeming with
life, at least in simple forms. Such a momentous conclusion
would require that the two origins were independent. That is
an important proviso - for instance, if meteorites from Mars
could impact the earth, maybe we are all Martians; conver-
sely, Mars could have been seeded by reverse traffic from
Earth!

FROM SIMPLE LIFE TO INTELLIGENCE

.................................................................
We know, at least in outline, the elaborate history and the
contingencies that led to our emergence here. For a billion
years, primitive organisms exhaled oxygen, transforming the
young Earth's poisonous atmosphere and clearing the way for
multicellular life. The fossil record tells us that a cornucopia
of swimming and creeping things evolved during the Cam-
brian era 550 million years ago. The next 200 million years
saw the greening of the land, offering a habitat for exotic fauna
- dragonflies as big as seagulls, millipedes a metre long,
scorpions and amphibians. And then the dinosaurs, whose
traditional dim and torpid image has been replaced by the
dynamism portrayed (in accordance with current scientific
opinion) in films such as Jumssic Park. They were wiped out
in the most sudden and unpredictable of all extinctions: an
asteroid crashed onto Earth, causing huge tidal waves and
throwing up dust that darkened the sky for years. This opened
the way for the line of mammalian descent that led to humans.
Even if we knew that primitive life was widespread, the
issue of intelligent life would still remain open. An extra-
ordinary procession of species (almost all now extinct) have
swum, crawled and flown through our biosphere during its
long history. We are the outcome of time and chance: if
 O U R COSMIC HABITAT I: PLANETS. STARS A N D LIFE 19

evolution were rerun, the outcome would be different.

Nothing seems to pre-ordain the emergence of intelligence;
indeed, some leading evolutionists believe that, even if simple
life were widespread in the cosmos, intelligence could be
exceedingly rare. We still understand far too little to assess the
odds, but there is no reason for obdurate scepticism.
The amazing and fascinating complexity of biological
evolution, and the variety of life on Earth, makes us realize
that everything in the inanimate world is, in comparison, very
simple. And this simplicity - or, at least, relative simplicity -
is a feature of the objects that astronomers study. Things are
hard to understand because they are complex, not because
they are big. The challenge of fully elucidating how atoms
assembled themselves - here on Earth, and perhaps on other
worlds - into living beings intricate enough to ponder their
origins is more daunting than anything in cosmology. For just
that reason, I don't think it's presumptuous to aspire to
understand our large-scale universe.
The concept of a 'plurality of inhabited worlds' is still the
province of speculative thinkers, as it has been through the
ages. The year 2000 marks the fourth centenary of the death of
Giordano Bruno, burnt at the stake in Rome. He believed that:
In space there are countless constellations, suns and planets;
we see only the suns because they give light; the planets remain
invisible, for they are small and dark. There are also number-
less earths circling around their suns, no worse and no less than
this globe of ours. For no reasonable mind can assume that
heavenly bodies that may be far more magnificent than ours
would not bear upon them creatures similar or even superior to
those upon our human earth.

Ever since Bruno's time, this belief has been widely shared.
In the eighteenth century, the great astronomer William
Herschel, discoverer of the planet Uranus, thought that the
planets, the Moon, and even the Sun were inhabited. In the
1880s' Percival Lowell, a wealthy American, built his own
observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, primarily to study Mars. He
20 JUST SIX NUMBERS

believed that the 'canals' (now recognized to be no more than

a combination of wishful thinking and optical illusion) were
an irrigation project to channel water from the frozen polar
caps to the 'deserts' of its equatorial zones. In 1900, a French
foundation offered the Guzman Prize of 100,000 francs for the
first contact with an extraterrestrial species; but prudence led
them to exclude Mars - detecting Martians was thought to be
too easy!

A COMMON CULTURE W I T H ALIENS?

................................................................
Searches for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) are being
spearheaded by scientists at the SETI Institute in Mountain
View, California. The efforts have concentrated on searches
for radio transmissions that could be artificial in origin, and
have used various large radio telescopes around the world.
This option is familiar also from fictional depictions such as
Carl Sagan's Contact (in which it generally pays off). But radio
is not the only conceivable channel: narrow-beamed lasers
could span interstellar distances with a modest power
consumption. We already have the technology, if we so
wish, to proclaim our presence many light-years away by
either of these methods; indeed, the combined effects of all
radio transmitters, radars and so forth would in any case
reveal us to any aliens with sensitive radio telescopes. We
know so little about the origin and potentialities of life that it
is hard to assess what method for detecting it is best. So it is
sensible to use every available technique and be alert to all
possibilities. But we should be mindful of 'observational
selection': even if we do discover something, we can't infer
that it is 'typical', because our instruments and techniques
restrict us to detecting a biased and incomplete selection of
what may actually be out there.
There may be no other intelligent life elsewhere. Even if
there is, it may be on some water-covered world where super-
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT I: PLANETS. STARS AND LIFE 21

dolphins enjoy a contemplative oceanic life, doing nothing to

reveal themselves. There are heavy odds against success, but
systematic scans for artificial signals are a worthwhile gamble
because of the philosophical import of any detection. A
manifestly artificial signal - even if it were as boring as lists
of prime numbers, or the digits of 'pi' - would imply that
'intelligence' wasn't unique to the Earth and had evolved
elsewhere. The nearest potential sites are so far away that
signals would take many years in transit. For this reason
alone, transmission would be primarily one-way. There
would be time to send a measured response, but no scope for
quick repartee!
Any remote beings who could communicate with us would
have some concepts of mathematics and logic that paralleled
our own. And they would also share a knowledge of the basic
particles and forces that govern our universe. Their habitat
may be very different (and the biosphere even more different)
from ours here on Earth; but they, and their planet, would be
made of atoms just like those on Earth. For them, as for us, the
most important particles would be protons and electrons: one
electron orbiting a proton makes a hydrogen atom, and
electric currents and radio transmitters involve streams of
electrons. A proton is 1,836 times heavier than an electron,
and the number 1,836 would have the same connotations to
any 'intelligence' able and motivated to transmit radio
signals. All the basic forces and natural laws would be the
same. Indeed, this uniformity - without which our universe
would be a far more baffling place - seems to extend to the
remotest galaxies that astronomers can study. (Later chapters
in this book will, however, speculate about other 'universes',
forever beyond range of our telescopes, where different laws
may prevail.)
Clearly, alien beings wouldn't use metres, kilograms or
seconds. But we could exchange information about the ratios
of two masses (such as the ratio of proton and electron
masses) or of two lengths, which are 'pure numbers' that
don't depend on what units are used: the statement that one
22 JUST SIX NUMBERS

rod is ten times as long as another is true (or false) whether we

measure lengths in feet or metres or some alien units. As
Richard Feynman noted, he could tell extraterrestrials that he
was 'seventeen billion hydrogen atoms high' and they should
understand him.
Some 'intelligences' could exist with no intellectual affinity
to us whatsoever. But any beings who transmitted a signal to
us must have achieved some mastery over their physical
surroundings. If they had any powers of reflection, they
would surely share our curiosity about the cosmic 'genesis
event' from which we've all emerged. They would be likely to
be interested in how our universe is structured into stars and
galaxies, what it contains, how it is expanding, and its
eventual destiny. These things would be part of the common
culture that we would share with any aliens. They would
note, as we do, that a few key numbers are crucial to our
shared cosmic environment.
Six of these numbers are the theme of the present book.
They determine key features of our universe: how it expands;
whether planets, stars and galaxies can form; and whether
there can be a 'chemistry' propitious for evolution. Moreover,
the nature of our universe is remarkably sensitive to these
numbers. If you imagine setting up a universe by adjusting six
dials, then the tuning must be precise in order to yield a
universe that could harbour life. Is this providence? Is it
coincidence? Are these numbers the outcome of a 'theory of
everything' that uniquely fixes them? None of these inter-
pretations seems compelling. Instead, I believe that the
apparent 'tuning' intimates something even more remarkable:
that our observable universe - all we can see out to the limits
of our telescopes - is just one part of an ensemble, among
which there is even a diversity of physical laws. This is
speculation, but it is compatible with the best theories we
have.
We know that there are planets orbiting other stars, just as
the Earth orbits our own star, the Sun. We may wonder what
habitats they offer. Is their gravity too weak to retain an
 O U R COSMIC HABITAT I: PLANETS, STARS A N D LIFE 23

atmosphere? Are they too hot, too cold, or too dry to harbour
life? Probably only a few offer an environment conducive for
life. So, on a much grander scale, there may be innumerable
other universes that we cannot observe because light from
them can never reach us. Would they be propitious for the
kind of evolution that has happened on at least one planet
around at least one star in our 'home' universe? In most of
them, the six numbers could be different: only a few universes
would then be 'well tuned' for life. We should not be
surprised that, in our universe, the numbers seem providen-
tially tuned, any more than we should be surprised to find
ourselves on a rather special planet whose gravity can retain
an atmosphere, where the temperature allows water to exist,
and that is orbiting a stable long-lived star.
 CHAPTER 3
............................................................................................
T H E LARGE NUMBER ?V:
GRAVITY IN T H E C O S M O S

Who could believe an ant in theory?

A giraffe in blueprint?
Ten thousand doctors of what's possible
Could reason half the jungle out of being.
JohnCiardi

NEWTON'S 'CLOCKWORK'
..............................................
If we were establishing a discourse with intelligent beings on
another planet, it would be natural to start with gravity. This
force grips planets in their orbits and holds the stars together.
On a still larger scale, entire galaxies - swarms of billions of
stars - are governed by gravity. No substance, no kind of
particle, not even light itself escapes its grasp. It controls
the expansion of the entire universe, and perhaps its eventual
fate.
Gravity still presents deep mysteries. It is more perplexing
than any of the other basic forces of nature. But it was the first
force to be described in a mathematical fashion. Sir Isaac
Newton told us in the seventeenth century that the attraction
between any two objects obeys an 'inverse square law'. The
force weakens in proportion to the square of the distance
between the two masses: take them twice as far away and
the attraction between them is four times weaker. Newton
 T H E LARGE NUMBER ?V: G R A V I T Y I N T H E COSMOS 25

realized that the force that makes apples fall and governs a
cannon-ball's trajectory is the same that locks the Moon in its
orbit around the Earth. He proved that his law accounted for
the elliptical orbits of the planets - a compelling demonstra-
tion of the power of mathematics to predict the 'clockwork' of
the natural world.
Newton's great work, the Principia, published in 1687, is a
three-volume Latin text, laced with elaborate theorems of a
mainly geometric kind. It is a monument to the pre-eminent
scientific intellect of the millennium. Despite the forbidding
austerity of his writings (and his personality), Newton's
impact was immense, on philosophers and poets alike. And
that influence percolated to a wider public as well: for
instance, a book entitled Newtonianism for Ladies was
published in 1737. The essence of his theory of gravity
appeared in a more accessible book called The System of the
World.
In this latter work, a key idea is neatly illustrated by a
picture showing cannon-balls fired horizontally from a
mountain-top. The faster they're flung, the further they go
before hitting the ground. If the speed is very high, the earth
'falls away' under the projectile's trajectory, and it goes into
orbit. The requisite speed (about eight kilometres per second)
was of course far beyond the cannons of Newton's time, but
today we're familiar with artificial satellites that stay in orbit
for just this reason. Newton himself showed that the same
force holds the planets in their elliptical orbits round the Sun.
Gravity acts on a grander scale in clusters of stars; and in
galaxies, where billions of stars are held in orbit around a
central hub.
In the Sun and other stars like it, there is a balance between
gravity, which pulls them together, and the pressure of their
hot interior, which, if gravity didn't act, would make them fly
apart. In our own Earth's atmosphere, the pressure at ground
level, likewise, balances the weight of all the air above us.
26 JUST SIX NUMBERS

GRAVITY O N BIG AND SMALL SCALES

...................................................................
Our Earth's gravity has more drastic effects on big objects than
small ones. When producers of 'disaster movies' use a model
to depict (for example) a bridge or dam collapsing, they must
make it not of real steel and concrete but of very flimsy
material that bends or shatters when dropped from table-top
height. And the film has to be shot fast and replayed in slow
motion to look realistic. Even when this is carefully done,
there may be other give-away clues that we are viewing a
miniature version rather than the real thing - for instance,
small wavelets in a water tank are smoothed by surface tension
(the force that holds raindrops together), but this effect is
negligible in a full-scale turbulent river or in ocean waves.
Surface tension allows spiders to walk on water, but we can't.
Being the right size is crucial in the biological world. Large
animals are not just blown-up versions of small ones: they are
differently proportioned, with, for instance, thicker legs in
relation to their height. Imagine you doubled the dimensions
of an animal, but kept its shape the same. Its volume and
weight would become eight (z3)times larger, not just twice as
large; but the cross-section of its legs would only go up by a
factor of four (z2) and would be took weak to support it. It
would need a redesign. The bigger they are, the harder they
fall: 'godzillas' would need legs thicker than their bodies, and
would not survive a fall; mice, on the other hand, can climb
vertically, and are unharmed even when dropped from many
times their own height.
Galileo (who died in the same year that Newton was born)
was the first clearly to realize these constraints on size. He
wrote:

Nor could Nature make trees of immeasurable size, because

their branches would eventually fall of their own weight . . .
When bodies are diminished, their strengths do not propor-
tionally diminish; rather, in very small bodies the strength
 T H E LARGE NUMBER ?V: G R A V I T Y IN T H E C O S M O S 27

grows in greater ratio, and I believe that a little dog might carry
on his back two or three dogs of the same size, whereas I doubt
that a horse could carry even one horse his size.

Similar arguments limit the size of birds (the constraints are

more stringent for humming birds that can hover than for
albatrosses that glide); but the limits are more relaxed for
floating creatures, allowing leviathans in the ocean. In
contrast, being too small leads to problems of another kind: a
large area of skin in proportion to weight, whereby heat is lost
quickly; small mammals and birds must eat and metabolize
fast in order to stay warm.
There would be analogous limits on other worlds. For
example, the physicist Edwin Salpeter has speculated, along
with Carl Sagan, on the ecology of hypothetical balloon-like
creatures that could survive in the dense atmosphere of
Jupiter. Each new generation would face a race against time:
it would have to inflate large enough to achieve buoyancy
before gravity pulled it to destruction in the dark high-
pressure layers deeper down.

T H E VALUE O F ?V AND WHY IT I S S O LARGE

.............................................................................
Despite its importance for us, for our biosphere, and for the
cosmos, gravity is actually amazingly feeble compared with
the other forces that affect atoms. Electric charges of opposite
'sign' attract each other: a hydrogen atom consists of a
positively-charged proton, with a single (negative) electron
trapped in orbit around it. Two protons would, according to
Newton's laws, attract each other gravitationally, as well as
exerting an electrical force of repulsion on one another. Both
these forces depend on distance in the same way (both follow
an 'inverse square' law), and so their relative strength is
measured by an important number, W , which is the same
irrespective of how widely separated the protons are. When
28 JUST SIX NUMBERS

two hydrogen atoms are bound together in a molecule, the

electric force between the protons is neutralized by the two
electrons. The gravitational attraction between the protons is
thirty-six powers of ten feebler than the electrical forces, and
quite unmeasurable. Gravity can safely be ignored by chem-
ists when they study how groups of atoms bond together to
form molecules.
How, then, can gravity nonetheless be dominant, pinning
us to the ground and holding the moon and planets in their
courses? It's because gravity is always an attraction: if you
double a mass, then you double the gravitational pull it
exerts. On the other hand, electric charges can repel each
other as well as attract; they can be either positive or negative.
Two charges only exert twice the force of one if they are of the
same 'sign'. But any everyday object is made up of huge
numbers of atoms (each made up of a positively charged
nucleus surrounded by negative electrons), and the positive
and negative charges almost exactly cancel out. Even when
we are 'charged up' so that our hair stands on end, the
imbalance is less than one charge in a billion billion. But
everything has the same sign of 'gravitational charge', and so
gravity 'gains' relative to electrical forces in larger objects.
The balance of electric forces is only slightly disturbed when
a solid is compressed or stretched. An apple falls only when
the combined gravity of all the atoms in the Earth can defeat
the electrical stresses in the stalk holding it to the tree. Gravity
is important to us because we live on the heavy Earth.
We can quantify this. In Chapter I, we envisaged a set of
pictures, each being viewed from ten times as far as the last.
Imagine now a set of differently sized spheres, containing
respectively 10,100,1000, . . . atoms, in other words each ten
times heavier than the one before. The eighteenth would be as
big as a grain of sand, the twenty-ninth the size of a human,
and the fortieth that of a largish asteroid. For each thousand-
fold increase in mass, the volume also goes up a thousand
times (if the spheres are equally dense) but the radius goes
up only by ten times. The importance of the sphere's own
 T H E LARGE N U M B E R ?V: G R A V I T Y I N T H E COSMOS 29

gravity, measured by how much energy it takes to remove an

atom from its gravitational pull, depends on mass divided by
radius,' and so goes up a factor of a hundred. Gravity starts
off, on the atomic scale, with a handicap of thirty-six powers
of ten; but it gains two powers of ten (in other words 100) for
every three powers (factors of 1,000) in mass. So gravity will
have caught up for the fifty-fourth object (54 = 36 x 312)'
which has about Jupiter's mass. In any still heavier lump
more massive than Jupiter, gravity is so strong that it over-
whelms the forces that hold solids together.
Sand grains and sugar lumps are, like us, affected by the
gravity of the massive Earth. But their self-gravity - the
gravitational pull that their constituent atoms exert on each
other, rather than on the entire Earth - is negligible. Self-
gravity is not important in asteroids, nor in Mars's two small
potato-shaped moons, Phobos and Deimos. But bodies as large
as planets (and even our own large Moon) are not rigid enough
to maintain an irregular shape: gravity makes them nearly
round. And masses above that of Jupiter get crushed by their
own gravity to extraordinary densities (unless the centre gets
hot enough to supply a balancing pressure, which is what
happens in the Sun and other stars like it). It is because gravity
is so weak that a typical star like the Sun is so massive. In any
lesser aggregate, gravity could not compete with pressure, nor
squeeze the material hot and dense enough to make it shine.
The Sun contains about a thousand times more mass than
Jupiter. If it were cold, gravity would squeeze it a million
times denser than an ordinary solid: it would be a 'white
dwarf about the size of the Earth but 330,000 times more
massive. But the Sun's core actually has a temperature of
fifteen million degrees - thousands of times hotter than its
glowing surface, and the pressure of this immensely hot gas
'puffs up' the Sun and holds it in equilibrium.
The English astrophysicist Arthur Eddington was among
the first to understand the physical nature of stars. He
speculated about how much we could learn about them just
by theorizing, if we lived on a perpetually cloud-bound
30 JUST SIX NUMBERS

planet. We couldn't, of course, guess how many there are, but

simple reasoning along the lines I've just outlined could tell
us how big they would have to be, and it isn't too difficult to
extend the argument further, and work out how brightly such
objects could shine. Eddington concluded that: 'When we
draw aside the veil of clouds beneath which our physicist is
working and let him look up at the sky, there he will find a
thousand million globes of gas, nearly all with [these]
masses.'
Gravitation is feebler than the forces governing the micro-
world by the number n,about lo3'. What would happen if it
weren't quite so weak? Imagine, for instance, a universe
where gravity was 'only' lo3' rather than lo3' feebler than
electric forces. Atoms and molecules would behave just as in
our actual universe, but objects would not need to be so large
before gravity became competitive with the other forces. The
number of atoms needed to make a star (a gravitationally
bound fusion reactor) would be a billion times less in this
imagined universe. Planet masses would also be scaled down
by a billion. Irrespective of whether these planets could retain
steady orbits, the strength of gravity would stunt the evolu-
tionary potential on them. In an imaginary strong-gravity
world, even insects would need thick legs to support them,
and no animals could get much larger. Gravity would crush
anything as large as ourselves.
Galaxies would form much more quickly in such a uni-
verse, and would be miniaturized. Instead of the stars being
widely dispersed, they would be so densely packed that close
encounters would be frequent. This would in itself preclude
stable planetary systems, because the orbits would be dis-
turbed by passing stars - something that (fortunately for our
Earth) is unlikely to happen in our own Solar System.
But what would preclude a complex ecosystem even more
would be the limited time available for development. Heat
would leak more quickly from these 'mini-stars': in this
hypothetical strong-gravity world, stellar lifetimes would be
a million times shorter. Instead of living for ten billion years,
 T H E LARGE NUMBER W : G R A V I T Y IN T H E C O S M O S 31

a typical star would live for about 10,000 years. A mini-Sun

would burn faster, and would have exhausted its energy
before even the first steps in organic evolution had got under
way. Conditions for complex evolution would undoubtedly
be less favourable if (leaving everything else unchanged)
gravity were stronger. There wouldn't be such a huge gulf as
there is in our actual universe between the immense time-
spans of astronomical processes and the basic microphysical
timescales for physical or chemical reactions. The converse,
however, is that an even weaker gravity could allow even
more elaborate and longer-lived structures to develop.
Gravity is the organizing force for the cosmos. We shall see
in Chapter 7 how it is crucial in allowing structure to unfold
from a Big Bang that was initially almost featureless. But it is
only because it is weak compared with other forces that large
and long-lived structures can exist. Paradoxically, the weaker
gravity is (provided that it isn't actually zero), the grander and
more complex can be its consequences. We have no theory
that tells us the value of ?V. All we know is that nothing as
complex as humankind could have emerged if ?V were much
less than 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

FROM N E W T O N TO E I N S T E I N
.....................................................
More than two centuries after Newton, Einstein proposed his
theory of gravity known as 'general relativity'. According to
this theory, planets actually follow the straightest path in a
'space-time' that is curved by the presence of the Sun. It is
commonly claimed that Einstein 'overthrew' Newtonian
physics, but this is misleading. Newton's law still describes
motions in the Solar System with good precision (the most
famous discrepancy being a slight anomaly in Mercury's orbit
that was resolved by Einstein's theory) and is adequate for
programming the trajectories of space probes to the Moon and
planets. Einstein's theory, however, copes [unlike Newton's)
32 JUST SIX NUMBERS

with objects whose speeds are close to that of light, with the
ultra-strong gravity that could induce such enormous speeds,
and with the effect of gravity on light itself. More importantly,
Einstein deepened our understanding of gravity. To Newton,
it was a mystery why all particles fell at the same rate and
followed identical orbits - why the force of gravity and the
inertia were in exactly the same ratio for all substances (in
contrast to electric forces, where the 'charge' and 'mass' are
not proportionate) - but Einstein showed that this was a
natural consequence of all bodies taking the same 'straightest'
path in a space-time curved by mass and energy. The theory of
general relativity was thus a conceptual breakthrough -
especially remarkable because it stemmed from Einstein's
deep insight rather than being stimulated by any specific
experiment or observation.
Einstein didn't 'prove Newton wrong'; he transcended
Newton's theory by incorporating it into something more
profound, and with wider applicability. It would actually
have been better (and would have obviated widespread
misunderstanding of its cultural implications) if his theory
had been given a different name: not 'the theory of relativity'
but 'the theory of invariance'. Einstein's achievement was to
discover a set of equations that can be applied by any observer
and incorporate the remarkable circumstance that the speed
of light, measured in any 'local' experiment, is the same
however the observer is moving.
The development of any science is marked by increasingly
general theories, that subsume previously unrelated facts and
extend the scope of those that precede them. The physicist
and historian Julian Barbour offers a mountaineering meta-
phor,' which I think rings true:

The higher we climb, the more comprehensive the view. Each

new vantage point yields a better understanding of the
interconnection of things. What is more, gradual accumulation
of understanding is punctuated by sudden and startling
enlargements of the horizon, as when we reach the brow of a
 T H E LARGE N U M B E R 'N: G R A V I T Y IN T H E COSMOS 33

hill and see things never conceived of in the ascent. Once we

have found our bearings in the new landscape, our path to the
most recently attained summit is laid bare and takes its
honourable place in the new world.

Experience shapes our intuition and common sense: we

assimilate the physical laws that directly affect us. Newton's
laws are in some sense 'hardwired' into monkeys that swing
confidently from tree to tree. But far out in space lie
environments differing hugely from our own. We should not
be surprised that commonsense notions break down over vast
cosmic distances, or at high speeds, or when gravity is strong.
An intelligence that could roam rapidly through the
universe - constrained by the basic physical laws but not by
current technology - would extend its intuitions about space
and time to incorporate the distinctive and bizarre-seeming
consequences of relativity. The speed of light turns out to
have very special significance: it can be approached, but
never exceeded. But this 'cosmic speed limit' imposes no
bounds to how far you can travel in your lifetime, because
clocks run slower (and on-board time is 'dilated') as a
spaceship accelerates towards the speed of light. However,
were you to travel to a star a hundred light-years away, and
then return, more than two hundred years would have passed
at home, however young you still felt. Your spacecraft cannot
have made the journey faster than light (as measured by a
stay-at-home observer), but the closer your speed approached
that of light, the less you would have aged.
These effects are counterintuitive simply because our
experience is limited to slow speeds. An airliner flies at only
a millionth of the speed of light, not nearly fast enough to
make the time dilation perceptible: even for the most
inveterate air traveller it would be less than a millisecond
over an entire lifetime. This tiny effect has, nevertheless, now
been measured, and found to accord with Einstein's predic-
tions, by experiments using atomic clocks accurate to a
billionth of a second.
34 JUST SIX NUMBERS

A related 'time dilation' is caused by gravity: near a large

mass, clocks tend to run slow. This too is almost impercep-
tible here on Earth because, just as we are only used to 'slow'
motions, we experience only 'weak' gravity. This dilation
must, however, be allowed for, along with the effects of
orbital motion, in programming the amazingly accurate
Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) system.
A measure of the strength of a body's gravity is the speed
with which a projectile must be fired to escape its grasp. It
takes 11.2 kilometres per second to escape from the Earth.
This speed is tiny compared with that of light, 300,000
kilometres per second, but it challenges rocket engineers
constrained to use chemical fuel, which converts only a
billionth of its so-called 'rest-mass energy' (Einstein's mc? -
see Chapter 4)into effective power. The escape velocity from
the Sun's surface is 600 kilometres per second - still only one
fifth of one per cent of the speed of light.

'STRONG GRAVITY' AND BLACK HOLES

....................................................................
Newtonian theory works, with only very small corrections,
everywhere in our Solar System. But we should prepare for
surprises when gravity is far stronger. And astronomers have
discovered such places: neutron stars, for instance. Stars
leave these ultra-dense remnants behind when they explode
as supernovae (discussed further in the next chapter). Neu-
tron stars are typically 1.4 times as massive as the Sun, but
only about twenty kilometres across; on their surface, the
gravitational force is a million million times fiercer than on
Earth. More energy is needed to rise a millimetre above a
neutron star's surface than to break completely free of Earth's
gravity. A pen dropped from a height of one metre would
impact with the energy of a ton of TNT (although the intense
gravity on a neutron star's surface would actually, of course,
squash any such objects instantly). A projectile would need to
 T H E LARGE N U M B E R ?V: G R A V I T Y IN T H E COSMOS 35

attain half the speed of light to escape its gravity; conversely,

anything that fell freely onto a neutron star from a great height
would impact at more than half the speed of light.
Newton's theory cannot cope when gravity is as powerful as
it is around neutron stars; Einstein's general relativity is
needed. Clocks near the surface would run ten to twenty per
cent slower compared with those far away. Light from the
surface would be strongly curved, so that, viewing from afar,
you would see not just one hemisphere but part of the
backside of the neutron star as well.
A body that was a few times smaller, or a few times heavier,
than a neutron star would trap all the light in its vicinity and
become a black hole; the space around it would 'close up' on
itself. If the Sun were squeezed down to a radius of three
kilometres, it would become a black hole. Fortunately, Nature
has done such experiments for us, because the cosmos is
known to contain objects that have collapsed, 'puncturing'
space and cutting themselves off from the external universe.
There are many millions of black holes in our galaxy, of
about ten solar masses each, which are the terminal state of
massive stars or perhaps the outcome of collisions between
stars. When isolated in space, such objects are very incon-
spicuous: they can be detected only by the gravitational effect
that they exert on other bodies or light rays that pass close to
them. Easier to detect are those with an ordinary star orbiting
around them to make a binary system. The technique is
similar to that used to infer planets from the motion they
induce in their parent star; but in this case the task is easier
because the visible star is of lower mass than the dark object
(instead of being a thousand or more times heavier), and so
gyrates in a larger and faster orbit.
Astronomers are always specially interested in the most
'extreme' phenomena in the cosmos, because it is through
studying these that we are most likely to learn something
fundamentally new. Perhaps most remarkable of all are the
amazingly intense flashes called 'gamma-ray bursts'. These
events, so powerful that for a few seconds they outshine a
36 JUST SIX NUMBERS

million entire galaxies of stars, are probably black holes

caught in the act of formation.
Much larger black holes lurk in the centres of galaxies. We
infer their presence by observing intense radiation from gas
swirling around them at close to the speed of light, or by
detecting the ultra-rapid motions of stars passing close to
them. The stars very close to the centre of our own galaxy are
orbiting very fast, as though feeling the gravity of a dark mass:
a black hole with a mass of 2.5 million Suns. The size of a
black hole is proportionate to its mass, and the hole at the
Galactic Centre has a radius of six million kilometres. Some of
the real monsters in the centres of other galaxies, weighing as
much as several billion suns, are as big as our entire Solar
System - although they are nonetheless still very small
compared with the galaxies in whose cores they lurk.
Peculiar and counterintuitive though they are, black holes
are actually simpler to describe than any other celestial
object. The Earth's structure depends on its history, and on
what it's made of; similarly sized planets orbiting other stars
would assuredly be very different. And the Sun, basically a
huge globe of gas exhibiting continuous turbulence and
flaring on its surface, would look different if it contained a
different 'mix' of atoms. But a black hole loses all 'memory' of
how it was formed and quickly settles down to a standard
smooth state described just by two quantities: how much
mass went into it, and how fast it is spinning. In 1963, long
before there was any evidence that black holes existed -
before, indeed, the American physicist John Archibald
Wheeler introduced the name 'black hole' - a theorist from
New Zealand, Roy Kerr, discovered a solution of Einstein's
equations that represented a spinning object. Later work by
others led to the remarkable result that anything that
collapses would settle down into a black hole that was exactly
described by Kerr's formula. Black holes are as standardized
as elementary particles. Einstein's theory tells us exactly how
they distort space and time, and what shape their 'surface' is.
Around black holes, our intuitions about space and time go
 T H E LARGE NUMBER W : G R A V I T Y IN T H E COSMOS 37

badly awry. Light travels along the 'straightest' path, but in

strongly warped space this can be a complicated curve. And
near them, time runs very slowly (even more slowly than near
a neutron star). Conversely, if you could hover, or orbit, very
close to a black hole, you would see the external universe
speeded up. There is a well-defined 'surface' around a black
hole, where, to a n observer at a safe distance, clocks (or an in-
falling experimenter) would seem to 'freeze' because the time
dilation becomes almost infinite.
Not even light can escape from inside this surface: the
distortions of space and time are even worse. It is as though
space itself is being sucked in so fast that even an outwardly
directed light ray is dragged inwards. In a black hole, you can
no more move 'outwards' in space than you can move
backwards in time.
A spinning black hole distorts space and time in a more
complicated way. To envisage it, imagine a whirlpool in
which water spirals towards a central vortex. Far away from
the vortex, you can navigate as you wish, either going with the
flow or making headway against it. Closer in, the water swirls
faster than your boat's speed: you are constrained to go round
with the flow, although you can still move outwards (on an
outward spiral) as well as in. But, closer still, even the inward
flow becomes faster than your boat. If you venture within
some 'critical radius' you have no choice about your fate, and
are sucked in towards destruction.
A black hole is shrouded by a surface that acts like a one-
way membrane. No signals from inside can be transmitted to
colleagues watching from a safe distance. Anyone who passes
inside the 'surface' is trapped, and fated to be sucked inward
towards a region where, according to Einstein's equations,
gravity 'goes infinite' within a finite time, as measured by
their own clock. This 'singularity' actually signifies that
conditions transcend the physics that we know about, just as
we believe they did at the very beginning of our universe.
Anyone falling into a black hole thus encounters 'the end of
time'. Is this a foretaste of the Big Crunch that could be the
38 JUST SIX NUMBERS

ultimate fate of our universe? Or does our universe have a

perpetual future? Or could some still-unknown physics
protect us from this fate?
Einstein's theory was, famously, triggered by his 'happy
thought' that gravity was indistinguishable fiom accelerated
motion and would be undetectable in a freely falling lift. Non-
uniformities in gravity cannot, however, be eliminated. If
a phalanx of kamikaze astronauts were in free fall towards
the Earth in regular formation, then the horizontal spacings
between them would shrink but the vertical spacings would
increase. This is because their trajectories all converge
towards the centre of the Earth, and the gravitational force
pulls more strongly on those lower down in the formation and
hence nearer to the Earth. And there would be a similar effect
between the different parts of each astronaut's body: falling
feet-first, the astronaut would feel a vertical stretching and a
sideways compression. This 'tidal' force, imperceptible for
astronauts in the Earth's gravity, becomes catastrophically
large in a black hole, leading to shredding and 'spaghettifica-
tion' before the central 'singularity' is reached. An astronaut
falling towards a stellar-mass black hole would feel severe
tidal effects even before reaching the hole's surface; there-
after, only a few milliseconds would remain (as measured by
the astronaut's clock) before encountering the singularity. But
tidal effects are more gentle around the supermassive black
holes in the centres of galaxies: even after passing inside the
surface of one of these, several hours would remain for
leisured exploration before getting close enough to the central
singularity to be severely di~cornforted.~

ATOMIC-SCALE BLACK HOLES

......................................................
Black holes are a remarkable theoretical construct, but they
are more than that. Evidence that they actually exist is now
compelling. They are implicated in some of the most
 T H E L A R G E N U M B E R ?V: G R A V I T Y I N T H E COSMOS 39

spectacular phenomena we observe in the cosmos - quasars

and explosive outbursts. There are still lively debates about
exactly how they formed, but there is no mystery about how
gravity could have overwhelmed all other forces in a dead
star, or within a cloud of gas in the centre of a galaxy. These
formation processes require them to be at least as massive as a
star, because we've seen that, for asteroids and planets,
gravity can't compete with other forces. Indeed, a physicist
on a cloud-bound planet could have predicted that if stars
existed, then so probably did stellar-mass black holes.
The scale of stars, which determines the mass of black holes
that can actually form today, stems, as we've seen, from a
balance between gravitational and atomic forces. But nothing
in Einstein's theory picks out any special mass. Black holes
are made from the fabric of space itself. Insofar as space is a
smooth continuum, nothing apart from a simple scaling
distinguishes whether a hole (once it has formed) is as big as
an atom, or as big as a star, or as big as our observable
universe.
Even a hole that was only the size of an atom would have
the mass of a mountain. Black holes are, by definition, objects
where gravity has overwhelmed all other forces. For an atom-
sized black hole to form, lo3' atoms must be squeezed into the
dimensions of one. This forbidding requirement is another
consequence of the hugeness of our cosmic number ?V, which
measures the weakness of gravity on the atomic scale. What
about black holes even smaller than an atom? Here there is an
eventual limit (which will reappear in Chapter 10)due to an
inherent graininess of space on the tiniest scale.
Atomic-scale black holes could have formed, if at all, only
in the immense pressures that prevailed in the earliest
instants of the universe. If they actually existed, such mini-
holes would be extraordinary 'missing links' between the
cosmos and the microworld.
 CHAPTER 4
............................................................................................
STARS, T H E P E R I O D I C TABLE, A N D E

I believe a leaf of grass is no less than the journey-work of the

stars.
Walt Whitman

STARS A S ' N U C L E A R F U S I O N REACTORS'

....................................................................
How old is the Earth? It is now pinned down, by measure-
ments of radioactive atoms, to 4.55 billion years. Compelling
arguments for its great antiquity were, however, already being
advanced in the nineteenth century. Geologists, gauging the
rate at which erosion and sedimentation shaped our terrain,
assessed the Earth's age as at least a billion years: Darwinians
concurred with this, from their estimates of how many
generations of gradually evolving species must have lived
before us. On the other hand, the great physicist Lord Kelvin
calculated that all the Sun's internal heat would leak out, and
it would deflate, in only one per cent of that time. He gloomily
averred that: 'Inhabitants of the Earth cannot continue to
enjoy the light and heat essential to their life, for many
millions of years longer, unless sources now unknown to us
are prepared in the great storehouse of creation.' Twentieth-
century science has taught us that such a source indeed
exists, stored in the nuclei of atoms. H-bombs are frightening
testimony to the energy latent in the nucleus.
 STARS, THE PERIODIC TABLE, AND E 41

The Sun is fuelled by conversion of hydrogen (the simplest

atom, whose nucleus consists of one proton) into helium (the
second-simplest nucleus, consisting of two protons and two
neutrons). Attempts to harness fusion as a power source
('controlled fusion') have so far been stymied by the difficulty
of achieving the requisite temperatures of many millions of
degrees. It is even more of a problem to confine this ultra-hot
gas physically in a laboratory - it would obviously melt any
solid container - and it has instead to be trapped by magnetic
forces. But the Sun is so massive that gravity holds down the
overlying cooler layers, and thereby 'keeps the lid on' the
high-pressure core. The Sun has adjusted its structure so that
nuclear power is generated in the core, and diffuses outward,
at just the rate needed to balance the heat lost from the surface
- heat that is the basis for life on Earth.
This fuel has kept the Sun shining for nearly five billion
years. But when it starts to run out, in another 5 billion years
or so, the Sun's core will contract, and the outer layers
expand. For a hundred million years - a brief interval relative
to its overall lifetime - the Sun will brighten up and expand
into the kind of star known as a 'red giant', engulfing the inner
planets and vaporizing any life that remains on Earth. Some of
its outer layers will be blown off, but the core will then settle
down as a white dwarf, shining with a dull blue glow, no
brighter than a full moon today, on the parched remains of the
Solar System.
Astrophysicists have computed what the inside of our Sun
should be like, and have achieved a gratifying fit with its
observed radius, brightness, temperature and so forth. They
can tell us confidently what conditions prevail in its deep
interior; they can also calculate how it will evolve over the
next few billion years. Obviously these calculations can't be
checked directly. We can, however, observe other stars like
the Sun that are at different stages in their evolution. Having a
single 'snapshot' of each star's life is not a fatal handicap if we
have a large sample, born at different times, available for
study. In the same way, a newly landed Martian wouldn't take
42 JUST SIX NUMBERS

long to infer the life-cycle of humans (or of trees), by

observing large numbers at different stages. Even among the
nearby stars, we can discern some that are still youngsters, no
more than a million years old, and others in a near-terminal
state, which may already have swallowed up any retinue of
planets that they once possessed.
Such inferences are based on the assumption that atoms
and their nuclei are the same everywhere. Newton's great
insight was to link the roles of gravity here on Earth and in
celestial orbits. Yet even he only addressed the motions
within our Solar System. It took much longer to realize that
gravity applied in other stars, and even in other galaxies. In
ancient times, the celestial sphere was believed to be made of
a special substance, 'quintessence', purer than the earth, air,
fire and water of our terrestrial realm. Until the mid-nine-
teenth century, there were no clues as to what the stars were
made of. The use of prisms to disperse light into a rainbow of
different colours revealed that light from the Sun, and from
other stars, contained the hues characteristic of well-known
atoms on Earth. The ingredients of starstuff were no different
from the atoms here on the 'sub-lunary sphere'.
Astrophysicists can compute, just as easily as the Sun's
evolution, the life-cycle of a star that is (say)half, twice, or ten
times the mass of the Sun. Smaller stars burn their fuel more
slowly. In contrast, stars ten times as heavy as the Sun - the
four blue Trapezium stars in the constellation of Orion, for
instance - shine thousands of times more brightly, and
consume their fuel more quickly. Their lifetimes are much
shorter than the Sun's, and they expire in a more violent way,
by exploding as supernovae. They become, for a few weeks, as
bright as several billion suns. Their outer layers, blown off at
20,000 kilometres per second, form a blast wave that ploughs
into the surrounding interstellar gas.
On 24 February 1987 a Canadian astronomer, Ian Shelton,
was carrying out routine observations with his Chilean
assistant at the Las Campanas Observatory in northern Chile.
They noticed an unfamiliar glow in the Southern sky, bright
 STARS, THE PERIODIC TABLE, A N D E 43

enough to be seen with the unaided eye, that had not been
visible on the previous night. This proved to be much the
nearest supernova to be observed in modern times. During the
few weeks of its peak brilliance, and during its gradual fading
in the subsequent years, it has been monitored by all the
techniques of modern astronomy, allowing theories of these
immense explosions to be tested. It is the only supernova
whose precursor star was already known: old photographic
plates show, at the site of the supernova, a blue star of about
twenty solar masses.
Supernovae represent cataclysmic events in the life of the
stars, involving some 'extreme' physical processes; so super-
novae naturally fascinate astronomers. But only one person
in ten thousand is an astronomer. What possible relevance
could these stellar explosions thousands of light-years away
have to all the others, whose business lies purely on or near
the Earth's surface? The surprising answer is that they are
fundamental to everyone's environment. Without them, we
would never have existed. Supernovae have created the 'mix'
of atoms that the Earth is made of and that are the building
blocks for the intricate chemistry of life. Ever since Darwin,
we've been aware of the evolution and selection that
preceded our emergence, and of our links with the rest of
the biosphere. Astronomers now trace our Earth's origins
back to stars that died before the Solar System formed. These
ancient stars made the atoms of which we and our planet are
composed.

ALCHEMY IN THE STARS

............................*........*..*..
Atoms exist in nature in ninety-two varieties, as represented
in the 'periodic table'. The place of each atom in the table
depends on the number of protons in its nucleus. The table
starts with hydrogen at number 1, and goes up to uranium at
92. The nuclei of atoms contain not only protons but particles
44 JUST SIX NUMBERS

of another kind, called neutrons. A neutron weighs slightly

more than a proton, but has no electric charge. Atoms of a
particular element can exist in several variants, called
isotopes, with different numbers of neutrons. For example,
carbon is number 6 in the periodic table: its nucleus contains
six protons. The most common form (known as 12C)contains
six neutrons as well; but there are also isotopes with seven
and eight neutrons (known as 13cand 14c respectively).
Uranium is the heaviest naturally occurring element; still
heavier nuclei, with charges up to 114, have been made in
laboratories. These super-heavy elements are unstable to
fission. Some, like plutonium (number 94 in the table), have
a lifetime of thousands of years; those numbered beyond 100
can be manufactured in experiments that collide nuclei
together, but decay after a transient existence.
When a big star's central hydrogen has all been converted
into helium (number 2), the core is pulled inwards, squeez-
ing it hotter until the helium can itself react - helium nuclei
have twice the electric charge of hydrogen, so they need to
collide faster in order to overcome the fiercer electric
repulsion, and this demands a higher temperature. When
the helium is itself used up, the star contracts and heats up
still more. Stars like the Sun never achieve hot-enough cores
to permit these transmutations to go very far, but the centres
of heavier stars, where gravity is more powerful, reach a
billion degrees. They release further energy via the build-up
of carbon (six protons), and then by a chain of transmutations
into progressively heavier nuclei: oxygen, neon, sodium,
silicon, etc. The amount of energy released when a particular
nucleus forms depends on a competition between the nuclear
force that 'glues' its constituent protons and neutrons
together, and the disruptive effects of electric forces between
the protons. An iron nucleus (twenty-six protons) is more
tightly bound than any other; energy must be added (rather
than being released) to build up still heavier nuclei. A star
therefore faces an energy crisis when its core has been
transmuted into iron.
 STARS, THE PERIODIC TABLE. AND E 45

The consequences are dramatic. Once the iron core gets

above a threshold size (about 1.4 solar masses), gravity gains
the upper hand and the core implodes down to the size of a
neutron star. This releases enough energy to blow off the
overlying material in a colossal explosion - creating a super-
nova. Moreover, this material has, by then, an 'onion skin'
structure: hydrogen and helium are still burning in the outer
regions, but the hotter inner layers have been processed
further up the periodic table. The debris thrown back into
space contains this mix of elements. Oxygen is the most
common, followed by carbon, nitrogen, silicon and iron. The
calculated proportions, when we take account of all types of
star and the various evolutionary paths they take, agree with
those observed on Earth.
Iron is only the twenty-sixth element in the periodic table,
and at first sight the heavier atoms might seem a problem
because it takes an input of energy to synthesize them. But
intense heat in the collapse, and the blast wave that blows off
the outer layers, together produce small traces of the elements
in the rest of the periodic table, right up to uranium at number
92.

THE GALACTIC ECOSYSTEM

.................*....,****.*....*.**......*....*
The first stars formed about ten billion years ago from
primordial material that contained only the simplest atoms -
no carbon, no oxygen, and no iron. Chemistry would then
have been a very dull subject. There could certainly have been
no planets around these first stars. Before our Sun even
formed, several generations of heavy stars could have been
through their entire life-cycles, transmuting pristine hydro-
gen into the basic building blocks of life and flinging them
back into space via strong winds or explosions. Some of these
atoms found themselves in an interstellar cloud resembling
the Orion Nebula, where, about 4.5 billion years ago, a new
46 JUST SIX NUMBERS

star condensed, surrounded by a dusty disc of gas, to become

our Solar System. Why are carbon and oxygen so common
here on Earth, but gold and uranium so rare? The answer
involves stars that exploded before our Sun formed. The
Earth, and we ourselves, are the ashes from those ancient
stars. Our galaxy is an ecosystem, recycling atoms again and
again through generations of stars.
The carbon, oxygen and iron atoms in the Solar System are
fossils from the dusty cloud from which it formed about 4.5
billion years ago: they were made by heavy stars that had
already expelled processed debris by that time. These
'pollutants' constituted only two per cent of the mass:
hydrogen and helium were still overwhelmingly the domi-
nant atoms. Heavy atoms are, however, overrepresented on
Earth, because hydrogen and helium are volatile gases that
escaped from all the inner planets. In contrast, the giant
planet Jupiter is, like the Sun, mainly hydrogen and helium. It
was formed from the cooler outer part of the disc that
surrounded the newly formed Sun, and its own gravity was
enough to retain these lightweight atoms.
Older stars than the Sun would have formed before our
galaxy had undergone so much 'pollution'; their surfaces
should therefore be deficient in heavy elements compared
with the Sun. Starlight has a complicated spectrum, in which
each kind of atom imprints a distinctive set of colours.
(Streetlights have, for instance, familiarized us with the
yellow light of sodium, and the characteristic blue of mercury
vapour.) All the heavier atoms, indeed, tend to be less
abundant in the oldest stars, corroborating this general
scheme of galactic history. Helium, in contrast, is very
abundant even in the oldest stars, and the reason, discussed
in the next chapter, leads us back to the first few minutes after
the Big Bang.
 STARS, THE PERIODIC TABLE, AND E 47

NUCLEAR EFFICIENCY: E = 0.007

.........................................................
Accounting for the proportions of the different atoms - and
realizing that the Creator didn't need to turn ninety-two
different knobs - is a triumph of astrophysics. Some details
are still uncertain, but the essence depends on just one
number: the strength of the force that binds together the
particles (protons and neutrons) that make up an atomic
nucleus.
Einstein's famous equation E = mcZtells us that mass (m) is
related to energy (AT) via the speed of light(c). The speed of
light thus has fundamental significance. It fixes the 'conver-
sion factor': it tells us how much each kilogram of matter is
'worth' in terms of energy. The only way that mass can be
converted 100 per cent into energy is if it can be brought
together with an equal mass of antimatter - something that
(fortunately for our survival) doesn't exist in bulk anywhere
in our galaxy. Just one kilogram of antimatter would yield as
much energy as a large electrical power station generates in
ten years. But ordinary fuels such as gasoline, or even
explosives such as TNT, release only about a billionth of the
material's 'rest mass energy'. Such materials involve chemical
reactions, which leave the nuclei of atoms unchanged and
just reshuffle the orbits of their electrons and the linkages
between the atoms. But the power of nuclear fusion is
awesome because it is millions of times more efficient than
any chemical explosion. The nucleus of a helium atom
weighs 99.3 per cent as much as the two protons and two
neutrons that go to make it. The remaining 0.7 per cent is
released mainly as heat. So the fuel that powers the Sun - the
hydrogen gas in its core - converts 0.007 of its mass into
energy when it fuses into helium. It is essentially this number,
E, that determines how long stars can live. Further transmuta-
tions of helium all the way up to iron release only a further
0.001. The later stages in a star's life are therefore relatively
48 JUST SIX NUMBERS

brief. (They are even briefer because, in the hottest stellar

cores, extra energy drains away invisibly in neutrinos.)
The amount of energy released when simple atoms undergo
nuclear fusion depends on the strength of the force that 'glues'
together the ingredients in an atomic nucleus. This force is
different from the two forces I have discussed so far, namely
gravity and electricity, because it acts only at very short range,
and is only effective on the scale of an atomic nucleus. We
don't directly experience it, in contrast to the way that we
can 'feel' electrical and gravitational forces. Within an atomic
nucleus, however, this force grips the protons and neutrons
together strongly enough to combat the electrical repulsion
that would otherwise make the (positively charged) protons
fly apart. Physicists call this force the 'strong interaction'.
This 'strong' force, the dominant force in the microworld,
holds the protons in helium and heavier nuclei together so
firmly that fusion is a powerful enough energy source to
provide the prolonged warmth from the Sun that was a
prerequisite for our emergence. Without nuclear energy, the
sun would deflate within about ten million years, as Kelvin
realized a century ago. Because the force only acts at short
range, it becomes less effective in the larger and heavier
nuclei: this is why the nuclei heavier than iron become less
tightly bound rather than more so.

THE TUNING OF &

................................
Nuclear forces are crucial, but how much does their exact
strength matter? What would change if E were, for instance,
0.006 or 0.008 rather than 0.007? At first sight, one might
suspect that it wouldn't make much difference. If E were
smaller, hydrogen would be a less efficient fuel and the Sun
and stars wouldn't live so long, but this in itself would not be
crucial - after all, we are here already, and the Sun is still less
than halfway through its life. But there turn out to be delicate
 STARS, THE PERIODIC TABLE, AND E 49

effects, sensitive to this number, in the synthesis process that

transforms hydrogen into the rest of the periodic table.
The crucial first link in the chain - the build-up of helium
from hydrogen - depends rather sensitively on the strength of
the nuclear 'strong interaction' force. A helium nucleus
contains two protons, but it also contains two neutrons.
Rather than the four particles being assembled in one go, a
helium nucleus is built up in stages, via deuterium (heavy
hydrogen), which comprises a proton plus a neutron. If the
nuclear 'glue' were weaker, so that 8 were 0.006 rather than
0.007, a proton could not be bonded to a neutron and
deuterium would not be stable. Then the path to helium
formation would be closed off. We would have a simple
universe composed of hydrogen, whose atom consists of one
proton orbited by a single electron, and no chemistry. Stars
could still form in such a universe (if everything else were
kept unchanged) but they would have no nuclear fuel. They
would deflate and cool, ending up as dead remnants. There
would be no explosions to spray the debris back into space so
that new stars could form from it, and no elements would
exist that could ever form rocky planets.
At first sight, one might have guessed from this reasoning
that an even stronger nuclear force would have been advanta-
geous for life, by making nuclear fusion more efficient. But we
couldn't have existed if 8 had been more than 0.008, because
no hydrogen would have survived from the Big Bang. In our
actual universe, two protons repel each other so strongly that
the nuclear 'strong interaction' force can't bind them together
without the aid of one or two neutrons (which add to the
nuclear 'glue', but, being uncharged, exert no extra electrical
repulsion). If 8 were to have been 0.008, then two protons
would have been able to bind directly together. This would
have happened readily in the early universe, so that no
hydrogen would remain to provide the fuel in ordinary stars,
and water could never have existed.
So any universe with complex chemistry requires E to be in
the range 0.006-0.008. Some specific details are still more
50 JUST SIX NUMBERS

sensitive. The English theorist Fred Hoyle stumbled on the

most famous instance of 'fine tuning' when he was calculating
exactly how carbon and oxygen were synthesized in stars.
Carbon (with six protons and six neutrons in its nucleus) is
made by combining three helium nuclei. There is negligible
chance of all three coming together simultaneously, and so
the process happens via an intermediate stage where two
helium nuclei combine into beryllium (four protons and four
neutrons) before combining with another helium nucleus to
form carbon. Hoyle confronted the problem that this beryl-
lium nucleus is unstable: it would decay so quickly that there
seemed little chance of a third helium nucleus coming along
and sticking to it before it decayed. So how could carbon ever
arise? It turned out that a special feature of the carbon
nucleus, namely the presence of a 'resonance' with a very
particular energy, enhances the chance that beryllium will
grab another helium nucleus in the brief interval before it
decays. Hoyle actually predicted that this resonance would
exist; he urged his experimental colleagues to measure it, and
was vindicated. This seeming 'accident' of nuclear physics
allows carbon to be built up, but no similar effect enhances
the next stage in the process, whereby carbon captures
another helium nucleus and turns into oxygen. The crucial
'resonance' is very sensitive to the nuclear force. Even a shift
by four per cent would severely deplete the amount of carbon
that could be made. Hoyle therefore argued that our existence
would have been jeopardized by even a few percentage
points' change in E.'
Irrespective of how the elements were made, a change in E
would affect the length of the periodic table. A weaker
nuclear force would shift the most tightly bound nucleus
(which is now iron, number 26) lower down the periodic table
and reduce below ninety-two the number of stable atoms.
This would lead to an impoverished chemistry. Conversely, a
larger E could enhance the stability of heavy atoms.
At first sight, a longer 'menu' of different abundant atoms
would seem to open the way to a more interesting and varied
 STARS, THE P E R I O D I C TABLE, A N D E 51

chemistry. But this isn't altogether obvious - for example, the

English language would not be enriched in any important
sense if the alphabet had more letters in it. Likewise, complex
molecules can exist in endless variety even though there are
relatively few common elements. Chemistry would be duller
(and complex molecules of the kind essential for life would
not exist) if there were no oxygen and iron (numbers 8 and 26
respectively), and especially if carbon (number 6) were not
abundant; but little would be added by enhancing the number
of abundant elements, or by having a few extra stable
elements beyond our natural ninety-two.
The actual mix of elements would depend on 8,but what is
remarkable is that no carbon-based biosphere could exist if
this number had been 0.006 or 0.008 rather than 0.007.
 CHAPTER 5
............................................................................................
OUR COSMIC H A B I T A T II:
BEYOND OUR GALAXY

Telescope (n):A device having a relation to the eye similar to

that of a telephone to the ear, enabling distant objects to plague
us with a multitude of needless details.
Ambrose Bierce

THE UNIVERSE OF GALAXIES

..................................................
I've described how the atoms of the periodic table are made:
that we're stardust - or, less romantically, the 'nuclear waste'
- from the fuel that makes stars shine. These processes
depend on the strength of the 'nuclear force' that glues
together the protons and neutrons within the nuclei of these
atoms - measured by the cosmic number E = 0.007 that
denotes the proportion of energy that is released when
hydrogen fuses into helium. But where did the original
protons and hydrogen atoms come from, and how did the
primordial material aggregate into the first galaxies and stars?
To answer these questions, we must extend our horizons in
space and time - out to the extragalactic realm, and back to an
era before the birth of the first stars. We shall encounter
further numbers that describe our entire universe, and dis-
cover that our emergence depended on these too being finely
tuned.
Stars are agglomerated into galaxies, which are the basic
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT 11: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 53

units that make up the universe. Our own is typical. Its

hundred billion stars lie mainly in a disc, circling around a
bright inner 'bulge' where the stars are closer together than
average. Right at the centre lurks a black hole with the mass of
2.5 million suns. A light signal would take about 25,000 years
to reach us from the galactic centre, and we on Earth are rather
more than halfway out towards the disc's edge. From our
Sun's location, the other stars in the disc appear concentrated
in a band across the sky, known to us as Milky Way. Typical
stars take more than a hundred million years for a single
circuit (sometimes called a 'galactic year') around the galactic
centre.
Andromeda, our galaxy's nearest major neighbour in space,
is about two million light-years away. To an astronomer on a
planet orbiting one of Andromeda's stars, our galaxy would
look rather like Andromeda does to us: a disc, viewed
obliquely, made of stars and gas circling around a central
'hub'. Millions of other galaxies are visible with large
telescopes. Not all are disc-like: the other important class is
the so-called 'elliptical galaxies', in which the stars are not
organized into a disc but are swarming around in more
random orbits, each feeling the gravitational pull of all the
others.
Galaxies are not sprinkled around randomly in space: most
are in groups or clusters, held together by gravity. Our own
Local Group, a few million light-years across, contains the
Milky Way and Andromeda, together with thirty-four smaller
galaxies (that, at least, was the last count - very faint and
small members of the Local Group are still being discovered).
Gravity is pulling Andromeda towards us at about 100
kilometres per second. In about five billion years, these two
disc galaxies may crash together. Such crashes are 'routine'
cosmic events: we see, deeper in space, many other galaxies
that seem to be undergoing such an encounter with another.
Galaxies are so vast and diffuse, and the stars are so thinly
spread, that actual collisions between individual stars are ex-
ceedingly rare. (This is clearly true in the Solar neighbourhood,
54 JUST SIX NUMBERS

because even the nearest stars seem like faint points of light).
Even when two galaxies crash together and merge, there
would be very few stellar impacts. All that happens is that
each star feels the collective gravity of everything in the
other galaxy. Orbits are so distorted that the stars end up in a
single chaotic swarm rather than two separate discs. This is,
of course, just what a so-called elliptical galaxy looks like,
and I suspect (though the issue is still controversial) that the
big elliptical galaxies were formed in this fashion.

T H E T E X T U R E O F O U R UNIVERSE: T H E C O S M I C W E B
............................................................................................
Our Local Group is near the edge of the Virgo Cluster, an
archipelago of several hundred galaxies, whose core lies
about fifty million light-years away. The clusters and groups
are themselves organized into still larger aggregates. The so-
called 'Great Wall', a sheet-like array of galaxies about 200
million light-years away, is the nearest and most prominent of
these giant features. Another concentration of mass, the 'Great
Attractor', exerts a gravitational force that pulls us, and the
entire Virgo Cluster as well, at several hundred kilometres per
second.
Many phenomena in nature - mountain landscapes, coast-
lines, trees, blood vessels, and so forth - are 'fractals'. A
fractal is a pattern with the special mathematical feature that a
small part, when magnified, resembles the whole. If our
universe were like this - if it contained clusters of clusters of
clusters . . . ad infiniturn - then however deeply we probed
into space, and however large a volume we sampled, the
galaxies would still have a patchy distribution: by probing
deeper, we'd simply be sampling larger and larger scales in
the clustering hierarchy. But this is not how our universe
looks. Powerful telescopes reveal galaxies out to several
billion light-years. Within this far larger volume, astronomers
have mapped many more clusters like Virgo, and more
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT 11: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 55

features like the 'Great Wall'. But deeper surveys don't reveal
any conspicuous features on still larger scales; in the words of
the Harvard astronomer Robert Kirshner, we reach 'the end of
greatness'. A box whose sides are ZOO million light-years (a
distance still small compared with the horizon of our
observations, which is about 1 0 billion light-years away) is
capacious enough to accommodate the largest structures, and
to contain a 'fair sample' of our universe. Wherever it is
placed, such a box would contain roughly the same number
of galaxies, grouped in a statistically similar way into clus-
ters, filamentary structures, etc. The hierarchy of clustering
doesn't continue towards indefinitely large scales.
Our universe is thus not a simple fractal; moreover the
'smoothing scale' is small compared with the largest dis-
tances that our telescopes can probe. As an analogy, imagine
you were on a ship in the middle of the ocean. A complicated
pattern of waves would surround you, stretching to the
horizon. But you could study the statistics of the waves
because your field of view extends far enough to encompass
many of them. Even the biggest waves on the ocean are far
smaller than the horizon distance, and you could, in your
imagination, divide what you can see into many separate
patches, each large enough to be a fair sample. There is a
contrast here between seascapes and landscapes: in mountain-
ous terrain, one grand peak often dominates the entire
horizon and you can't define meaningful averages as you can
for a seascape. (Landscapes, indeed, can be fractal-like. The
mathematics of fractals is used in computer graphics pro-
grams for depicting imaginary landscapes in movies.)
Cosmic structures encompass a wide range of dimensions:
stars, galaxies, clusters, and superclusters. On scales less than
about 11300 of the horizon, the concentration of galaxies
varies by more than a factor of two from place to place; on
larger scales, the fluctuations are gentler (though there are a
few conspicuous features like the Great Attractor). Super-
clusters of galaxies - to extend the ocean analogy - are like the
longest conspicuous waves. We shall see in Chapter 8 that
56, JUST SIX NUMBERS

this scale depends on a single cosmic number, imprinted

in the very early universe, and that the 'embryos' of clusters
and superclusters - structures stretching millions of light-
years across the sky - can be traced back to a time when the
entire universe was of microscopic size. This is perhaps the
most astonishing link between the outer space of the cosmos
and the inner space of the microworld.
One's first guess might be that the texture of our universe on
such large scales was irrelevant to our local habitat within the
Solar System: it might not seem to matter whether our galaxy
contained a quadrillion stars, or else 'only' a million, rather
than the hundred billion that we observe; nor whether it
belonged to a cluster containing millions of other galaxies
rather than just a few. But a universe much rougher than ours
wouldn't be hospitable to stars and planets. On the other
hand, a universe that was too smooth would be blandly
uninteresting: no galaxies and stars would form, and all the
material would be thinly spread and amorphous.
This will be the theme of Chapter 8. But, for the moment,
we can note another crucial consequence of the large-scale
smoothness: it makes the science of cosmology possible, by
allowing us to define the average properties of our universe -
the demography of the galaxies, the statistics of the clusters,
and so forth. Despite galaxies and clusters, it is still useful to
think about the smoothed-out properties of the universe, just
as we can describe the Earth as 'round', despite the complex
topography of its mountains and its ocean depths. However, it
would not be useful to describe the Earth as 'basically round'
if its mountains were thousands of kilometres high rather
than just a few.
Even more important, we can meaningfully ask whether our
entire universe is static, expanding or contracting.
 O U R COSMIC HABITAT II: B E Y O N D O U R GALAXY 57

T H E EXPANSION
*................
I..*..**.***

Galaxies are the 'building blocks' of our universe, and by

studying the light from them we can infer how they are
moving. The hundred billion stars in a typical galaxy are too
faint to be seen individually: telescopes record the total light
from many stars blurred together. This light can be analysed
into a spectrum. We have noted how the light from a single
star can reveal its speed towards (or away from) us, and how
repeated measurements can even pick up the tiny oscillatory
motion induced by an orbiting planet. Likewise, the spectrum
of an entire galaxy reveals how fast it is moving, either
towards us (a shift towards the blue end of the spectrum) or
away from us (a shift towards the red).
Perhaps the most important single fact about our universe is
that the light from all distant galaxies is shifted towards the
red: all (except for a few nearby galaxies in the same cluster as
our own) are receding from us. Moreover, the redshift (a
measure of the recession speed) is larger for the more distant
galaxies. We seem to be in an expanding universe, where
clusters of galaxies get more widely separated - more thinly
spread through space - as time goes on.
The simple relation between redshift and distance is named
after Edwin Hubble, who first claimed such a law in 1929.
Observers on other galaxies would witness a similar expan-
sion of distant regions away from them. The expansion is a
broad-brush effect: individual galaxies (even clusters of
galaxies) are not themselves expanding; still less does the
expansion affect anything more local, such as our Solar
System.
Imagine that the rods in the M. C. Escher drawing in Figure
5.1 lengthened at the same rate. An observer on any vertex
would see the others receding at speeds that depended on
how many intervening rods there were. In other words, the
recession speed of other vertices would be proportional to
their distance. The galaxies aren't in a regular lattice - as
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT II: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 59

The expansion can be envisaged locally as a Doppler effect,

but on large scales, when the apparent recession is at a good
fraction of the speed of light, it is better to attribute the redshift
to a 'stretching' of space while the light travels through it. The
amount of reddening - in other words, the amount that the
wavelengths are stretched - is then equal to the amount by
which the universe has expanded (and, in our Escher analogy,
the 'rods' have lengthened) while the light has been travelling
towards us.
We might of course wonder whether the redshift actually
implies expansion, rather than some new physical effect that
comes into play over long distances. The possibility of such a
'tired light' effect is still sometimes raised, although nobody
has come up with a viable theory consistent with all the
evidence (it must, for instance, produce the same fractional
change in wavelength for light of all colours, and mustn't blur
the images of distant objects). A non-expanding universe
would actually entail even worse paradoxes than any Big
Bang theory. Stars don't have infinite energy reserves; they
evolve, and eventually exhaust their fuel. So therefore do
galaxies,which are essentially aggregates of stars. It is possible
to date the oldest stars in our Milky Way, and in other galaxies,
by comparing their properties with the outcome of computa-
tions of how stars evolve. The oldest are about ten billion years
old - entirely consistent with the view that our universe has
only been expanding for a bit longer than that. If our universe
were static, all galaxies must have mysteriously 'switched on'
in their present positions - in a synchronized fashion - about
ten billion years ago. A non-expanding universe would entail
severe conceptual difficulties.
The expansion almost certainly began between ten and
fifteen billion years ago, twelve or thirteen billion being the
best guess. There are two reasons for this persistent uncer-
tainty in the age of our universe. The exact distances to
galaxies are (unlike their recession speeds) still somewhat
inexact; also, the estimate depends on how much faster (or
slower) the expansion might have been in the past.
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT II: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 61

the light now reaching us. Not all the pristine gas had at that
stage condensed into stars. These evolutionary changes would
be so slow that they would only be manifest over billions of
years. To detect a trend, one must therefore probe galaxies so
far away that their light set out several billion years ago.
The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) - named in honour of
the discoverer of cosmic expansion - circles the Earth far
above the blurring effect of the atmosphere and has produced
the sharpest pictures yet of very distant regions. The HST is so
sensitive that a long exposure reveals, close packed in the sky,
literally hundreds of faint smudges, even within a field of
view so small that it would cover less than a hundredth of the
area of the full moon - and would appear as a blank patch of
sky when viewed with an ordinary telescope. (I think that the
amazing pictures being generated by the HST will impact as
strongly on public consciousness as the first images from
space, in the 1960s, that showed the whole Earth, with its
delicate-seeming biosphere.) The faint features in these
pictures, with a diversity of shapes, are a billion times fainter
than any star we can see with the unaided eye. But each is an
entire galaxy, thousands of light-years in size, which appears
so small and faint because of its huge distance from us. These
galaxies look different from their nearby counterparts because
they are being viewed when they have only recently formed:
they have not yet settled down into steadily spinning discs
like the photogenic nearby spiral galaxies depicted in most
astronomy books. Some consist mainly of glowing diffuse gas,
which hasn't yet fragmented into stars. Most of them appear
intrinsically bluer than present-day galaxies (after correcting,
of course, for the redshift), because massive blue stars, which
would all by now have died, were still shining when the light
left these distant galaxies.
These very deep images show us what a galaxy like our own
Milky Way would have looked like when its first stars were
shining brightly. When we observe Andromeda, a nearby
'twin' of our own galaxy, we may wonder whether Androme-
dans are looking back at us with still bigger telescopes.
62 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Perhaps they are. But there could be nothing so 'advanced' on

these very remote galaxies: we are viewing them at a very
primitive evolutionary stage, before enough time has elapsed
for many stars to have completed their lives. They have as yet
no complex chemistry; there is very little oxygen, carbon, etc,
even to make planets; and so there is scant chance of life. We
are seeing these galaxies at a stage when the basic building
blocks for planetary systems were being laid down. (The light
we detect was actually emitted in the far ultra-violet. Such
radiation cannot be detected by the eye, nor can it even
penetrate the Earth's atmosphere. But the extreme ultra-violet
radiation from these galaxies, by the time it reaches us, has
been shifted into red light.)
The most distant galaxies are so redshifted that the
wavelength of the light has been stretched by more than a
factor of six: that's how much the universe must have
expanded since the light set out. If the expansion had been
steady, with galaxies neither accelerating nor decelerating,
then when the universe was one-sixth its present scale (in the
sense that distances - the rods on Escher's lattice - were
scaled down six times smaller) it would have been one-sixth
its present age. This statement might at first seem trouble-
some: doesn't it mean that a galaxy must be moving away at
five times the speed of light, if the light has taken five-sixths of
our universe's present age to get back to us? But there's no
paradox. Einstein's special theory of relativity tells us that
nothing can move faster than light, relative to us, when time is
measured by our clock. But that theory also tells us that a fast-
moving clock runs slow. A fast clock can indeed travel five
light-years for every year that it records if it moves at ninety-
eight per cent of the speed of light.
The situation is actually a bit more complicated because the
recession speed would not be constant. The gravitational pull
that everything in the universe exerts on everything else
causes deceleration, which tends to make the earlier stages of
cosmic expansion relatively even shorter. But (as discussed in
Chapter 7) another force may be at work that tends to speed up
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT II: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 63

the expansion. There is still, therefore, some uncertainty

about how far back in time (or how far away in space) these
remote galaxies actually are: the best guess would be that their
light set out when the universe was around one-tenth of its
present age.
Cosmologists study 'fossils' of the past: old stars, chemical
elements synthesized when our galaxy was young, etc. In that
respect they are like geologists or palaeontologists trying to
infer how our Earth and its fauna have evolved. But cosmol-
ogists actually have an edge over other scientists who can't do
experiments and depend on 'historical' evidence. By direct-
ing their telescopes towards distant objects, cosmologists can
see the evolution they claim: populations of distant galaxies,
whose light set out several billion years ago, look different
from their counterparts nearby. Because of the large-scale
uniformity, all parts of the universe have had similar
histories. These remote galaxies should therefore - statisti-
cally at least - look similar to the way our Milky Way, the
Andromeda galaxy and other nearby systems would have
looked billions of years ago.
The field of view of a telescope is a long thin cone,
extending out to the limits of vision. The objects at each
distance tell us about a specific epoch in the past. As we probe
greater distances, we probe further back in time, just as a
borehole through successive layers of Antarctic ice can reveal
the history of the Earth's climate.
The Hubble Space Telescope was dogged by delays, errors
and cost overruns, but it has now, albeit belatedly, fulfilled
the hopes that astronomers had for it. Its out-of-focus mirror
was corrected by the first manned repair mission in 1994; and
the light detectors on board have been upgraded. It could,
barring mishap, continue until 2010, by which time still
larger space telescopes may have been deployed. But equally
important has been the advent of a new generation of larger
telescopes on the ground. Their 8-10 metre mirrors offer
sixteen times more collecting area than the HST, and so they
can collect far more light from very faint and remote galaxies.
64 JUST SIX NUMBERS

The two Keck Telescopes, on Mauna Kea in Hawaii, were the

first of these new-generation instruments to come into service,
but there are now several more. Most impressive of all is the
Very Large Telescope (VLT), a connected cluster of four
telescopes, each with an eight-metre mirror, constructed in
the Chilean Andes by a consortium of European nations.
The sharpness of the images from these ground-based
telescopes is limited by the blurring due to turbulence in the
atmosphere (the same process that makes stars twinkle). This
limit can be surmounted either by linking two or more
telescopes together and combining the images, or by so-called
'adaptive optics', whereby a mirror is continually tweaked and
adjusted to compensate for fluctuations in the atmosphere.
These superb instruments offer snapshots of the universe
right back to when the first galaxies were forming. The first
stars may actually have formed even earlier, in aggregates
smaller than present-day galaxies, but which are too faint for
us to see. These later agglomerated into larger structures. The
rate at which gas condenses into stars is the 'metabolic rate' of
a galaxy. It seems to have peaked when the universe was
about a quarter of its present age (even though the very first
starlight appeared much earlier). Fewer bright stars are
forming now because most of the gas in 'mature' galaxies has
already been incorporated into older stars.
That, at least, is the scenario that most cosmologists accept.
Fleshing out the details will need more observations and a
fuller understanding of how stars form. The aim is to obtain a
consistent scenario that not only matches all we know about
present-day galaxies but also takes into account the increas-
ingly detailed snapshots of what they looked like, and how
they were clustered, at all earlier times. When data are sparse,
they may all fit with several completely wrong theories; but as
the evidence mounts up, we should 'home in' on a single
picture of how things work.

With increasing distance our knowledge fades and fades

rapidly. Eventually we reach the dim boundary, the utmost
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT II: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 65

limits of our telescope. There we measure shadows, and we

search among ghostly errors of measurement for landmarks that
are scarcely more substantial. The search will continue. Not
until the empirical resources are exhausted need we pass on to
the dreamy realm of speculation.

These are the concluding words of Edwin Hubble's classic

(1936) book, The Realm of the Nebulae. Recent progress
would have delighted, and probably astonished, Hubble.
That progress is owed to the telescope in space that bears his
name, and huge new telescopes on the ground.

BEFORE T H E GALAXIES
......
.....................................

What about still earlier epochs, before any galaxies could

have formed? The best evidence that everything really
emerged from a dense 'beginning' is that intergalactic space
isn't completely cold. This warmth is an 'afterglow of
creation'. It manifests itself as microwaves, the kind of
radiation that generates heat in a microwave oven but very
much less intense. The first detection of the 'cosmic micro-
wave background', back in 1965, was the most important
advance in cosmology since the discovery of the expansion of
the universe. Later measurements confirmed that these
microwaves have a very distinctive property: their intensity
at different wavelengths, when plotted on a graph, traces out
what physicists call a 'black body' or 'thermal' curve. This
particular curve is expected when the radiation has been
brought into balance with its environment (as happens deep
inside a star, or in a furnace that has burnt steadily for a long
time); it's just what would be expected if the microwaves
were indeed a relic of a 'fireball' phase when everything in
our universe was squeezed hot, dense and opaque.
By far the most precise measurements came during the
1990s from NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite
66 JUST SIX NUMBERS

(COBE). When experimenters present their results, they

conventionally draw 'error bars' indicating the range of
uncertainty, but for the COBE data the 'bars' can't be exhibited
because they would be shorter than the thickness of the curve.
This truly remarkable measurement, with an accuracy of one
part in 10,000, confirms beyond reasonable doubt that every-
thing in our universe - all the stuff that galaxies are now made
of - was once a compressed gas, hotter than the Sun's core.
The present average temperature of the universe is 2.728
degrees above absolute zero. This is, of course, exceedingly
cool (around -270°C); but there's a well-defined sense in
which intergalactic space still contains a lot of heat. Every
cubic metre contains 412 million quanta of radiation, or
photons: in comparison, the average density of atoms in the
universe is only about 0.2 per cubic metre. This latter number
is less precisely known, because we are unsure how many
atoms may be in diffuse gas or 'dark' matter, but there seem to
be about two billion photons for every atom in the universe.
During the expansion of the universe, the density of atoms
and of photons both decrease. But the decrease is the same for
both, and so the ratio of photons to atoms stays the same.
Because this ratio of 'heat' to 'matter' is so large, the early
universe is often referred to as a 'hot' Big Bang.
The hot early phases wouldn't have lasted long. Only for a
few minutes would the temperature have exceeded a billion
degrees. After about half a million years it had cooled to 3000
degrees - a bit cooler than the Sun's surface. This marks a
significant stage in the expansion process: before that time,
everything was so hot that electrons were dislodged from
nuclei and moved freely; but afterwards the electrons would
have slowed down enough to attach themselves to nuclei,
forming neutral atoms. These atoms cannot scatter the
radiation as efficiently as free electrons were able to during
the earlier and hotter stages. The primordial material would
thereafter have been transparent; the 'fog' would have lifted.
During expansion, the temperature drops inversely with the
scale of the universe (the length of the rods on Escher's
 OUR COSMIC H A B I T A T II: B E Y O N D OUR G A L A X Y 67

lattice). The microwaves that COBE detects are relics from the
era when our universe was more than a thousand times more
compressed - at 3000 degrees rather than 2.7 degrees, and
long before any galaxies came into existence. The intense
radiation in the original fireball, although cooled and diluted
by expansion, still pervades the whole universe.
The often-used analogy with an explosion is misleading
inasmuch as it conveys the image that the Big Bang was
triggered at some particular centre. But as far as we can tell,
any observer - whether on Earth, on Andromeda, or even on
the galaxies remotest from us - would see the same pattern of
expansion. The universe may once have been squeezed to a
single point, but everyone had an equal claim to have started
from that point; we can't identify the origin of the expansion
with any particular location in our present universe.
It is also incorrect to think of the high pressure in the early
universe 'driving' the expansion. Explosions are caused by an
unbalanced pressure; bombs on Earth, or supernovae in the
cosmos, explode because a sudden boost in internal pressure
flings debris into a low-pressure environment. But in the early
universe the pressure was the same everywhere: there was no
edge, no 'empty' region outside. The primordial gas cools and
dilutes, just as happens to the contents of an expanding box.
The extra gravity due to the pressure and heat energy actually
slows down the expansion.'
This is a consistent picture, but it leaves some mysteries.
Above all (since the explosion analogy is flawed) it offers no
explanation for why expansion occurs at all. The standard Big
Bang theory simply postulates that everything was set up with
just enough energy to go on expanding. An answer to why it is
expanding at all must be sought in the still earlier stages,
where we don't have such direct evidence nor such a confi-
dent understanding of the physics.
The name 'Big Bang' was introduced in the 1950s by the
celebrated Cambridge theorist Fred Hoyle (already mentioned
in Chapter 4 for his insights into the origin of carbon) as a
derisive description of a theory he didn't like. Hoyle himself
68 JUST SIX NUMBERS

favoured a 'steady state' universe, in which new atoms and

new galaxies were imagined to form continuously in the gaps
as the universe expanded, so that its average properties never
changed. There was at that time no evidence either way -
cosmology was the province of armchair speculators -because
observations didn't probe far enough for the evolution (if it
existed) to show up. But the steady-state theory fell from
favour as soon as evidence emerged that the universe was
actually different in the past. Though it turned out wrong, the
steady-state theory was a 'good' theory in that it made very
clear-cut and testable predictions; it was a genuine stimulus to
the subject, goading observers to push their techniques to the
limit. (A 'bad' theory, in this sense, is one that is so flexible that
it can be adjusted to account for any data. The eminent - and
arrogant - physicist Wolfgang Pauli would deride such vague
ideas as 'not even wrong'.) Hoyle himself never became fully
reconciled to the Big Bang, although he adopted a compromise
picture that sceptical colleagues called a 'Steady Bang'.

N U C L E A R R E A C T I O N S IN T H E B I G B A N G
.1..1..1.....................................*.........................

According to the Big Bang theory, our universe started off

hotter than the centre of a star. Why, then, weren't the
primordial nuclei of hydrogen all transmuted into iron during
the Big Bang? (Remember that nuclei of iron are more 'tightly
bound' than any others, and are built up in the cores of the
biggest and hottest stars.) If this had happened, no long-lived
stars could have existed in our present universe, because all
the available fuel would have been used up in the early
fireball: a star made of vaporized iron could exist, but it would
deflate within millions of years, instead of billions, rather as
Kelvin thought the Sun would. Fortunately, the first few
minutes of the expansion didn't allow enough time for
nuclear reactions to 'process' any of the primordial material
into iron - nor even into carbon, oxygen, etc. The reactions
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT It: BEYOND OUR GALAXY 69

would turn about twenty-three per cent of the hydrogen into

helium, but (apart from a trace of lithium) no elements higher
up the periodic table emerge from the Big Bang itself.
This primordial helium is, however, crucial and offers us
strong corroboration of the Big Bang theory. Even the oldest
objects (in which pollution by carbon, oxygen and so forth is a
hundred times less than in the Sun) turn out to contain 23-24
per cent of helium: no star, galaxy or nebula has been found
where helium is less abundant than this. It seems as though
the galaxy started not as pure hydrogen, but was already a mix
of hydrogen and helium. (The Sun's outer layers have twenty-
seven per cent helium, the extra 3-4 per cent being just about
what would have been made, along with carbon, oxygen and
iron, in the short-lived early stars that must already have
polluted the cloud from which our Solar System formed.)'
Many slow-burning low-mass stars survive, which formed
several billion years before our Sun when our galaxy was
young. These contain far less carbon, oxygen and iron relative
to hydrogen than the Sun does - something that is, of course,
natural if, as Hoyle was first to argue, these atoms were ex-
pelled from massive stars and accumulated gradually over gal-
actic history. Hoyle's view contrasted with George Garnow's
idea that the entire periodic table was 'cooked' in the early
universe. If Gamow had been right and these elements
predated the first stars and galaxies, their abundance would
be the same everywhere, in young and old stars alike.
Helium is the only element that, according to calculations,
would be created prolifically in a Big Bang. This is gratifying
because it explains why there is so much helium and why the
helium is so uniform in its abundance. Attributing helium to
the Big Bang thus solved a long-standing problem, and
emboldened cosmologists to take the first few seconds of
cosmic history seriously.
As a bonus, the Big Bang accounts for another kind of atom:
deuterium (also known as 'heavy hydrogen'). An atom of
deuterium contains not just a proton but a neutron as well,
which adds extra mass but no extra charge. The existence of
deuterium is otherwise a mystery, because it is destroyed
rather than created in stars: as a nuclear fuel it is easier to
ignite than ordinary hydrogen, and so newly-formed stars
would burn up any deuterium during their initial contraction,
before settling down in their long hydrogen-burning phases.
Helium and deuterium were made when the temperature in
the compressed universe was (in round numbers) three billion
degrees - about a billion times higher than it is now. As the
universe expands, we can imagine the rods of Escher's lattice
(see Figure 5.1) lengthening. The wavelengths of the radiation
stretch in proportion to the length of the rods, and the
temperature decreases as the inverse of the length. This
means that, when the temperature was around three billion
degrees (rather than around 3 degrees as it is now) the rods were
a billion times (lo9)shorter and the densities higher by the cube
of that factor, lo2'. But our present universe is so diffuse -
around 0.2 atoms per cubic metre- that even when compressed
by this huge factor, the density is still less than that of air! The
temperature was then so high that the individual nuclei would
have been in agitated rapid motion. Laboratory experimenters
can check what happens when hydrogen and helium nuclei
crash together with the same energies as they would have had
when the helium-formation occurred, so the calculations are
based on quite conventional and firmly-based physics.
If we assume a present density of 0.2 atoms per cubic metre,
the computed proportions of hydrogen, helium and deuterium
that would emerge fiom the cooling 'fireball' universe agree
with observations. This is gratifying, because the observed
abundances could have been entirely out of line with the
predictions of any Big Bang; or they might have been consistent,
but only for a density that was far below, or else far above, the
range allowed by observation. As we have seen, 0.2 atoms per
cubic metre is indeed close to the smoothed out density of
galaxies and gas in our universe. (This has important implica-
tions for 'dark matter', as discussed in the next chapter.)
 CHAPTER 6
............................................................................................
THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION:
DARK MATTER A N D a

Eternity is very long, especially towards the end.

Woody Allen

THE CRITICAL DENSITY

.........................................
In about five billion years the Sun will die; and the Earth with
it. At about the same time (give or take a billion years) the
Andromeda galaxy, our nearest big galactic neighbour, which
belongs to the same cluster as our galaxy and which is
actually falling towards us, will crash into the Milky Way.
These gross long-range forecasts are reliable because they
depend on assuming that basic physics within the Sun, and
the force of gravity in stars and galaxies, operate during the
next five billion years as they have for the last five to ten
billion. Not much of the (more interesting) detail is predict-
able, however. We can't be sure that the Earth will still be the
third-closest planet to the Sun throughout the next five billion
years: even planetary orbits can behave 'chaotically' over that
expanse of time. And of course the changes on the Earth's
surface, particularly the ever-more-rapid alterations in its
biosphere being wrought by our own species, can't be
confidently predicted even for a millionth of that timespan.
The Sun hasn't even burnt up half its fuel yet. More time
lies ahead of it than has elapsed in the entire course of
72 JUST SIX NUMBERS

biological evolution. And the galaxy will far outlast the Sun.
Even if life were now unique to Earth, there would be
abundant time for it to spread through the galaxy and beyond.
Manifestations of life and intelligence could eventually affect
stars or even galaxies. I forbear to speculate further, not
because this line of thought is intrinsically absurd but
because it opens up such a variety of conceivable scenarios -
many familiar from science fiction - that we can predict
nothing. In contrast, long-range forecasts for our entire
universe are on surer ground.
Our galaxy will surely end five or six billion years hence in
a great crash. But will our universe go on expanding for ever?
Will the distant galaxies move ever further away from us? Or
could these motions eventually reverse, so that the entire
firmament eventually recollapses to a 'Big Crunch'?
The answer depends on the 'competition' between gravity
and the expansion energy. Imagine that a large asteroid or a
planet were to be shattered into fragments. If the fragments
dispersed rapidly enough, they would fly apart for ever. But if
the disruption were less violent, gravity might reverse the
motions, so that the pieces fell back together again. It's similar
for any large domain within our universe: we know the
expansion speed now, but will gravity bring it to a halt? The
answer depends on how much stuff is exerting a gravitational
pull. The universe will recollapse - gravity eventually
defeating the expansion, unless some other force intervenes
- if the density exceeds a definite critical value.
We can readily calculate what this critical density is. It
amounts to about five atoms in each cubic metre. That doesn't
seem much; indeed, it is far closer to a perfect vacuum than
experimenters on Earth could ever achieve. But the universe
actually seems to be emptier still.'
Suppose our star, the Sun, were modelled by an orange. The
Earth would then be a millimetre-sized grain twenty metres
away, orbiting around it. Depicted to the same scale, the
nearest stars would be 10,000 kilometres away: that's how
thinly spread the matter is in a galaxy like ours. But galaxies
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER A N D ICZ 73

are, of course, especially high concentrations of stars. If all the

stars from all the galaxies were dispersed through intergalac-
tic space, then each star would be several hundred times
further from its nearest neighbour than it actually is within a
typical galaxy - in our scale model, each orange would then
be millions of kilometres from its nearest neighbours.
If all the stars were dismantled and their atoms spread
uniformly through our universe, we'd end up with just one
atom in every ten cubic metres. There is about as much again
(but seemingly no more) in the form of diffuse gas between the
galaxies. That's a total of 0.2 atoms per cubic metre, twenty-
five times less than the critical density of five atoms per cubic
metre that would be needed for gravity to bring cosmic
expansion to a halt.

HOW M U C H DARK MATTER?

.*....*.......*.....*........................*...
The ratio of the actual density to the critical density is a
crucial number. Cosmologists denote it by the Greek letter a
(omega). The fate of the universe depends on whether or not
exceeds one. At first sight our estimate of the actual average
concentration of atoms in space seems to imply that fl is only
1/25 (or 0.041, portending perpetual expansion, by a wide
margin. But we should not jump too soon to that conclusion.
We've come to realize in the last twenty years that there's a lot
more in the universe than we actually see, such unseen
material consisting mainly of 'dark stuff' of unknown nature.
The things that shine - galaxies, stars and glowing gas clouds
- are a small and atypical fraction of what is actually there,
rather as the most conspicuous things in our terrestrial sky
are cloud patterns, which are actually insubstantial vapours
floating in the much denser clear air. Most of the material in
the universe, and the main contributor to a , emits no light,
nor infrared heat, nor radio waves, nor any other kind of
radiation, and is consequently hard to detect.
74 JUST SIX NUMBERS

The cumulative evidence for dark matter is now almost

uncontestable. The way stars and galaxies are moving suggest
that something invisible must be exerting a gravitational pull
on them. This is the same line of argument by which we infer
the existence of a black hole when a star is seen to be orbiting
around an invisible companion; it's also the reasoning used in
the nineteenth century when the planet Neptune was inferred
to exist because the orbit of Uranus was deviated by the pull
of a more distant unseen object.
In our Solar System, there is a balance between the
tendency of gravity to make the planets fall towards the Sun,
and the centrifugal effect of the orbital motions. Likewise, on
the far bigger scale of an entire galaxy, there is a balance
between gravity, which tends to pull everything together into
the centre, and the disruptive effects of motion, which, if
gravity didn't act, would make its constituent stars disperse.
Dark matter is inferred to exist because the observed motions
are surprisingly fast - too fast to be balanced just by the
gravity of the stars and gas that we see.
We know how fast our Sun is circling around the central
'hub' of our galaxy; and we can measure the speeds of stars
and gas clouds in other galaxies. These speeds, especially
those of 'outliers' orbiting beyond most of the stars, are
puzzlingly high. If the outermost gas and stars were feeling
just the gravitational pull of what we can see, they should be
escaping, just as Neptune and Pluto would escape from the
Sun's influence if they were moving as fast as the Earth does.
These high observed speeds tell us that a heavy invisible halo
surrounds big galaxies - just as, if Pluto were moving as fast as
the Earth (but were still in orbit rather than escaping), we
would have to infer a heavy invisible shell outside the Earth's
orbit but inside Pluto's.
If there weren't a lot of dark stuff, galaxies would not be
stable but would fly apart. The beautiful pictures of discs or
spirals portray what is essentially just 'luminous sediment'
held in the gravitational clutch of vast swarms of invisible
objects of quite unknown nature. Galaxies are ten times bigger
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND fi 75

and heavier than we used to think. The same argument

applies, on a larger scale, to entire clusters of galaxies, each
millions of light-years across. To hold them together requires
the gravitational pull of about ten times more material than
we actually see.
There is, of course, one assumption underlying these
inferences of 'dark matter', namely that we know the force of
gravity exerted by the objects we see. The internal motions
within galaxies and clusters are slow compared with the
speed of light, and so there are no 'relativistic' complications;
we therefore just use Newton's inverse-square law, which
tells us that if you move twice as far away from any mass then
the force gets four times weaker. Some sceptics remind us that
this law has only really been tested within our Solar System;
it is plainly a leap of faith to apply it on scales a hundred
million times larger. Indeed, we've now got tantalizing clues
(see Chapter 10) that, on the scale of the entire universe,
gravity is perhaps overwhelmed by another force that causes
repulsion rather than attraction.
We should keep our minds open (or at least ajar) to the
possibility that our ideas on gravity need reappraisal. If the
force exerted at large distances were stronger than we would
infer by extrapolating the inverse-square law - if it weren't
four times weaker at twice the range - then clearly the case for
dark matter would need rethinking. But we shouldn't
abandon our theory of gravity without a struggle. We might
be tempted to do so if there were no conceivable candidates
for dark matter. However, there seem to be many options; only
if these can all be ruled out should we, in my opinion, be
prepared to jettison Newton and in stein.^
There are other tell-tale signs of abundant 'dark matter'. All
gravitating material, whether luminous or 'dark', deflects
light rays, and so clusters can be 'weighed' by detecting how
strongly they deviate the paths of light rays passing through
them. Indeed, the deflection of starlight by the Sun's gravity,
observed by Eddington and others during the 1919 total
eclipse, famously offered an early test of relativity that
76 JUST SIX NUMBERS

propelled Einstein to world-wide celebrity. The Hubble

Space Telescope has taken spectacular pictures of some
clusters of galaxies lying about a billion light-years away.
The pictures reveal a lot of faint streaks and arcs: each is a
remote galaxy, several times further away than the cluster
itself, whose image is, as it were, viewed through a distorting
lens. Just as a regular pattern on background wallpaper looks
streaky and distorted when viewed through a curved sheet of
glass, the cluster acts like a 'lens' that focuses light passing
through it. The visible galaxies in the cluster, all added
together, aren't heavy enough to produce so much distortion.
To bend the light so much, and cause such conspicuous
distortion in the images of background galaxies, the cluster
must contain ten times more mass than we see. These huge
natural lenses offer a bonus to astronomers interested in how
galaxies evolve, because they bring into view very remote
galaxies that would otherwise be too faint to be seen.
We shouldn't really have been surprised to discover that
dark matter, amounting to about ten times what we see, is the
dominant gravitational influence on the cosmos. There's
nothing implausible about dark matter per se: why should
everything in the universe be shining? The challenge is to
narrow down the range of candidates.

W H A T C A N T H E DARK M A T T E R BE?
..............................................................
The inferred dark matter emits no light - indeed no radiation
of any kind that we can detect. Nor does it absorb or scatter
light. This means that it cannot be made of dust. We know
that there is some dust in our galaxy, because starlight is
scattered and attenuated by intervening clouds that are
pervaded by tiny grains, rather like those that produce the
haze from tobacco smoke. But if the grains cumulatively
weighed enough to make up all the dark matter, they would
black out our view of any distant stars.
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND C! 77

Small faint stars are obvious suspects for the dark matter.
Stars below eight per cent of the Sun's mass are called 'brown
dwarfs'. They wouldn't be squeezed hot enough to ignite the
nuclear fuel that keeps ordinary stars shining. Brown dwarfs
definitely exist: some have been found as a by-product of
searches for planets in orbit around brighter stars; others,
especially nearby, have been detected by their very faint
emission of red light. How many brown dwarfs might we
expect altogether? Theory offers little guidance. The propor-
tions of big and small stars are determined by very compli-
cated processes that aren't yet understood. Not even the most
powerful computers can tell us what happens when an
interstellar cloud condenses into a population of stars; the
processes are currently intractable, for the same reasons that
weather prediction is so very difficult.
Individual brown dwarfs can be revealed by gravitational
lensing. If one of them were to pass in front of a bright star,
then the brown dwarfs gravity would focus the light, causing
the bright star to appear magnified. As a consequence, a star
would brighten up and fade in a distinctive way if a brown
dwarf passed in front of it. This requires very precise
alignment, and such events would consequently be very
rare, even if there were enough brown dwarfs to make up all
the dark matter in our galaxy. However, astronomers have
carried out ambitious searches for these 'microlensing' events
(called 'micro' to distinguish the phenomenon from the
lensing by entire clusters of galaxies, as already mentioned).
Millions of stars are monitored repeatedly in order to pick out
those whose brightness changes from night to night. Many
stars vary for all kinds of intrinsic reasons: some pulsate,
some undergo flares, and some are orbiting around binary
companions. The searches have found many thousands of
these (which are interesting to some astronomers, though a
tiresome complication for the microlensing searches). Occa-
sionally, stars have been found to display the distinctive rise
and fall in brightness that would be expected if an unseen
mass had crossed in front of them and focused their light. It
78 JUST SIX NUMBERS

still isn't clear whether there are enough of these events to

implicate a new 'brown dwarf population, or whether
ordinary faint stars, passing in front of brighter ones, are
common enough to account for the events recorded.
There are several other candidates for dark matter. Cold
'planets' moving through interstellar space, unattached to any
star, could exist in vast numbers without being detected; so
could comet-like lumps of frozen hydrogen; so could black
holes.

T H E C A S E F O R E X O T I C PARTICLES
.............................................................
Brown dwarfs or comets (or even black holes, if they are the
remnants of dead stars) are, however, suspected to be only a
minor constituent of the dark matter. This is because there are
strong reasons for suspecting that dark matter isn't made of
ordinary atoms at all. This argument is based on deuterium
(heavy hydrogen).
As mentioned in the last chapter, any deuterium that we
observe must have been made in the Big Bang, not in stars.
The actual amount in our universe was, until recently,
uncertain. But astronomers have detected the spectral imprint
of deuterium, distinguishing it from ordinary hydrogen, in
the light received from very distant galaxies. This measure-
ment has needed the light-collecting power of new telescopes
with ten-metre-diameter mirrors. The observed abundance is
just a trace - only one atom in 50,000 is a deuterium atom.
The proportion that should emerge from the Big Bang
depends on how dense the universe is, and observations
agree with theory if there are 0.2 hydrogen atoms in each
cubic metre. This accords quite well with the actual number
of atoms in objects that shine - half are in galaxies, and the
other half is in intergalactic gas - but nothing much is then
left over for the dark matter.
If there were enough atoms to make up all the dark matter -
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND fi 79

which would imply at least five (and perhaps ten) times more
than we actually see - the concordance with theory would be
shattered. The Big Bang calculations would then predict even
less deuterium, and somewhat more helium, than we actually
observe: the origin of the deuterium in the universe would
then become a mystery. This tells us something very im-
portant: the atoms in the universe, with a density of 0.2 per
cubic metre, contribute only four per cent of the critical
density, and the dominant dark matter is made of something
that is inert as far as nuclear reactions are concerned. Exotic
particles - not anything made of ordinary atoms at all - make
the main contribution to
The elusive particles called neutrinos are one option. They
have no electric charge, and hardly interact at all with ordinary
atoms: almost all neutrinos that hit the Earth go straight
through. During the very first second after the Big Bang, when
the temperature exceeded ten billion degrees, everything was
so compressed that the reactions converting photons (quanta of
radiation) into neutrinos would have been fast enough to come
into balance. In consequence, the number of neutrinos left over
from the 'cosmic fireball' should be linked to the number of
photons. One can calculate, using physics that is quite
standard and uncontroversial, that there should be 3/11 as
many neutrinos as there are photons. There are now 412
million photons per cubic metre in the radiation left over from
the Big Bang. There are three different species of neutrinos, and
there would be 113 of each species in every cubic centimetre -
in other words, hundreds of millions of neutrinos for every
atom in the universe. It is of course the heaviest of the three
species that is important in the dark matter context.
Because neutrinos so greatly outnumber atoms, they could
be the dominant dark matter even if each weighed only a
hundred-millionth as much as an atom. Before the 1980s,
almost everyone believed neutrinos were 'zero rest-mass'
particles; they would then carry energy and move at the
speed of light, but their gravitational effects would be
unimportant. (Likewise, the photons left over from the early
80 JUST SIX NUMBERS

universe, now detected as the microwave background radia-

tion, don't now exert any significant gravitational effects.) But
it now seems that neutrinos may weigh something, even
though it is a very tiny amount indeed.
The best evidence for neutrino masses comes from the
Kamiokande experiment in Japan, using a huge tank in a
former zinc mine. The experimenters studied neutrinos that
come from the Sun (where they are a by-product of the
nuclear reactions in the central core), as well as others that
are produced by very fast particles ('cosmic rays') impacting
on the Earth's upper atmosphere. The experiments imply a
non-zero mass, but one that is probably too small to render
them important for the dark matter.4 This is, nonetheless, a
pivotal discovery about neutrinos themselves. At first sight it
makes the microworld seem more complicated, but the
masses may offer extra clues to the relation between neutrinos
and other particles.
At least we know that neutrinos exist, although we don't yet
know their exact masses. But there is a long list of hypothe-
tical particles that might exist, and (if so) could have survived
from the Big Bang in sufficient numbers to provide the
dominant contribution to a. There are no very convincing
arguments about how heavy each particle might be: best
guesses suggest a hundred times as much as a hydrogen
atom. If there were enough such particles to make up all the
dark matter in our galaxy, there would be several thousand
per cubic metre in the neighbourhood of the Sun; they would
be moving at about the same speed as the average star in our
galaxy - maybe 300 kilometres per second.
These particles, heavy but electrically neutral, would
generally, like neutrinos, go straight through the Earth.
However, a tiny proportion are likely to interact with an
atom in the material they pass through. There would be only a
few collisions per day within each of us (even though our
bodies each contain nearly lo2' atoms). We ourselves clearly
feel nothing. However, very sensitive experiments can detect
the minuscule 'kick', or recoil, when such an impact happens
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND R 81

in a lump of silicon or similar material. The detectors must be

cooled to a very low temperature and placed deep under-
ground (for instance, they are set up in a mine in Yorkshire,
and in a tunnel under an Italian mountain) so as to reduce the
confusion from other kinds of event that could drown out any
genuine signal from dark-matter impacts.
Several groups of physicists have taken up the challenge of
this 'underground astronomy'. It's delicate and tedious work,
but if they succeed, they will not only find out what our
universe is mainly made of but as a bonus they may discover
an important new kind of particle. Only an extreme optimist
would bet more than evens on success. This is because, at the
moment, we have no theory that tells us what the dark-matter
particles are and it's therefore hard to focus the search
optimally. The next step in our theoretical understanding of
sub-nuclear physics may involve a concept called 'super-
symmetry', which aims to relate the nuclear force to the other
forces within atoms (and thereby give us a better under-
standing of our cosmic number &). Integral to this concept are
some new kinds of electrically-neutral particles that would
have been made in the Big Bang, and whose masses might be
calculable.
Many other ideas are currently being considered. Some
theorists favour a type of even lighter particle called an axion.
Others suspect that the particles could be a billion times
heavier than those currently being searched for (in which case
there would be a billion times fewer, making detection even
harder). Or they could be more exotic still - for instance,
atom-sized black holes made in the ultra-high pressures of the
early universe.

NARROWING DOWN THE OPTIONS

........*.......*......*....................*...*......*......
Some options for the dark matter can be ruled out; serious
searches for other candidates, by a variety of techniques, are
82 JUST SIX NUMBERS

under way. Gravitational microlensing may detect enough

faint stars or black holes. Experimenters at the bottom of
mineshafts may detect some new kind of particle that pervades
our galactic halo. Even negative results can sometimes be
interesting because they exclude some tenable options.
There may well be several different kinds of dark matter. It
would, for instance, be surprising if there weren't some brown
dwarfs and black holes. However, exotic particles seem far
more likely, because of the evidence from deuterium that
most dark matter isn't made up of ordinary atoms.
It's embarrassing that more than ninety per cent of the uni-
verse remains unaccounted for - even worse when we realize
that the dark matter could be made up of entities with masses
ranged from grams (neutrinos) up to lo3' gm (heavy
black holes), an uncertainty of more than seventy powers of
ten. This key issue may yield to a three-pronged attack:

1. The entities making up the dark matter may be directly

detectable. Brown dwarfs may cause gravitational lensing
of stars. If the dark matter in our galaxy is a swarm of
particles, some of these might be detected by intrepid
experimenters deep underground. I'm optimistic that if I
were writing in five years' time, I would be able to report
what the dark matter is.
2. Experimenters and theorists are already telling us more
about neutrinos. It's possible (though it now seems un-
likely) that neutrinos have enough mass to be an important
dark-matter constituent. When the physics of extreme
energies and densities is better understood, we should
know what other kinds of particles might once have
existed, and be able to calculate how these particles would
have survived from the first millisecond of the universe just
as confidently as we can now predict the amount of helium
and deuterium surviving from the first three minutes.
3. Dark matter dominates galaxies. When and how galaxies
formed, and the way that they are clustered, plainly
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND R 83

depends on what their gravitationally-dominant constitu-

ent is and how it behaves as the universe expands. We can
make different guesses about the dark matter, calculate the
outcome of each, and see which outcome most resembles
what we actually observe. Such calculations (described in
Chapter 8) can offer indirect clues to what the dark matter is.

WHY MATTER AND N O T ANTIMATTER?

....................................................................
We don't know yet what types of particle might have existed
in the ultra-early phases of the universe nor how many
survive. If, as I believe, the main contribution to fi comes
from new kinds of particle, our cosmic modesty may have to
go a stage further. We are used to the post-Copernican idea
that we don't occupy a special central place in the cosmos,
but we must now abandon 'particle chauvinism' as well. The
atoms that comprise our bodies and that make all visible stars
and galaxies, are mere trace-constituents of a universe whose
large-scale structure is controlled by some quite different (and
invisible) substance. We see, as it were, just the white foam on
the wave-crests, not the massive waves themselves. We must
envisage our cosmic habitat as a dark place, made mainly of
quite unknown material.
Ordinary atoms seem to be a 'minority' constituent of the
universe, swamped by quite different kinds of particles
surviving from the initial instants of the Big Bang. But it is
actually more of a puzzle to understand why there are any
atoms - why our universe isn't solely composed of dark
matter.
To every kind of particle there is a corresponding anti-
particle. There are protons (made up of three so-called
'quarks') and antiprotons (made up of three antiquarks); the
'anti' of an electron is a positron. Antiparticles annihilate
when they encounter ordinary particles, converting their
energy (mc2) into radiation. No antimatter exists in bulk
84 JUST SIX NUMBERS

anywhere in or on the Earth. Tiny amounts can be made in

accelerators, where particles are crashed together with suffi-
cient energy to make extra particle-antiparticle pairs. Anti-
matter would be the ideal rocket fuel. When it annihilates,
its entire rest-mass energy is released, compared with the
fraction E = 0.007 for rockets powered by nuclear fusion.
Antimatter can survive only if 'quarantined' from ordinary
matter; otherwise it betrays itself by generating intense
gamma rays when it annihilates. We can be sure that our
entire galaxy - all its constituent stars and gas - is matter
rather than antimatter: its content is constantly being churned
up and recycled by stellar births and deaths, and had it started
off half matter and half antimatter there would by now be
nothing left. But on much larger scales the mixing would be
less efficient: we can't, for instance, refute the conjecture that
'superclusters' of galaxies consist alternately of matter and
antimatter. So why is there a seeming bias in favour of one
kind of matter?
There are 10'~ atoms within our observable universe (mainly
hydrogen atoms, each composed of a proton and an electron),
but there do not seem to be so many antiatoms. The simplest
universe, one might imagine, would have started off with
particles and antiparticles mixed up in equal numbers. Our
universe luckily wasn't like that. If it had been, then all protons
would have annihilated with antiprotons during the dense
early stages; it would have ended up full of radiation and dark
matter but containing no atoms, no stars and no galaxies.
Why this asymmetry? The full 10'~ excess could have been
there right from the beginning, but this seems an unnaturally
large number to accept as simply a part of the 'initial
conditions'. The Russian physicist Andrei Sakharov is most
widely famed for his role in developing the H-bomb, and later
as a leading dissident in the final years of the Soviet Union;
but he also contributed prescient ideas to cosmology. In 1967
he explored whether, during the cooling immediately after
the Big Bang, a small asymmetry might favour particles over
their antiparticles. This imbalance could create a slight excess
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND R 85

of quarks over antiquarks (which would later translate into an

excess of protons over antiprotons).
Sakharov's idea obviously requires some departure from
perfect symmetry between the behaviour of matter and
antimatter. Evidence for such an effect - a big surprise at the
time - came in 1964 from two American physicists, James
Cronin and Val Fitch, who were studying the decays of an
unstable particle called a KO.They found that this particle and
its antiparticle weren't perfect mirror images of each other,
but decayed at slightly different rates; some slight asymmetry
was built in to the laws governing the decays. (This means,
incidentally, that if we achieved contact with an 'alien'
physicist who could report experiments done on another
galaxy, we could tell whether that physicist was made of
matter or antimatter - something that it would be prudent to
check before planning a rendezvous!) The KO decay involves
only the so-called 'weak' force (which governs radioactivity
and neutrinos) and not the strong nuclear force. In a unified
theory of the forces, however, this type of asymmetry would
'carry over' from one force to the other, offering a basis for
Sakharov's idea.
Suppose that, for every log quark-antiquark pairs, such an
asymmetry had led to one extra quark. As the universe cooled,
antiquarks would all annihilate with quarks, eventually
giving quanta of radiation. This radiation, now cooled to
very low energies, constitutes the 2.7 degree background heat
pervading intergalactic space. But for every billion quarks
that were annihilated with antiquarks, one would survive
because it couldn't find a partner to annihilate with. There are
indeed more than a billion times more radiation quanta
(photons) in the universe than there are protons (412 million
photons in each cubic metre, compared with about 0.2
protons). So all the atoms in the universe could result from a
tiny bias in favour of matter over antimatter. We, and the
visible universe around us, may exist only because of a
dinerenee in the ninth decimal place between the numbers
of quarks and of antiquarks.
86 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Our universe contains atoms and not antiatoms because of a

slight 'favouritism' that prevailed at some very early stage.
This implies, of course, that a proton (or its constituent
quarks) can sometimes appear or disappear without the
same thing happening to an antiproton. There is a contrast
here with net electrical charge: this is exactly conserved, so
that if our universe started off uncharged, there would always
be an exact cancellation between positive and negative
charges.
Atoms don't live for ever, although the decay rate appears
to be incredibly low: a best guess for an atom's lifetime might
be about years. This would mean that, on average, one
atom would decay every year within a tank containing a
thousand tons of water. Experiments in the same large under-
ground tanks that are used to detect neutrinos cannot quite
reach this sensitivity, but already tell us that the lifetime is at
least years.
In the remote future, all stars will turn into cold white
dwarfs, neutron stars or black holes. But the white dwarfs and
neutron stars will themselves erode away as the constituent
atoms decay. If this erosion took lo3' years, the heat generated
by the prolonged decay would make each star radiate as much
as a household electric heater. These feeble emitters would be
the prime warmth (except for occasional flashes following
stellar collisions) in the remote future, when all stars had
exhausted their nuclear energy.

THE T U N I N G OF THE INITIAL EXPANSION

..........................................................................
may not be exactly one, but it is now at least 0.3. At first
sight, this may not seem to indicate fine tuning. However, it
implies that fl was very close indeed to unity in early eras.
This is because, unless expansion energy and gravitational
energy are in exact balance (in which case fl is, and remains,
exactly equal to unity), the gap between those two energies
88 JUST SIX NUMBERS

universes in which life as we know it couldn't have emerged.

It highlights a basic mystery: Why is our universe still, after
ten billion years, expanding with a value of a not too
different from unity?
There are, as we've seen in the last chapter, good grounds
for extrapolating back to when the universe was one second
old and at a temperature of ten billion degrees. Suppose that
you were 'setting up' a universe then. The trajectory it would
follow would depend on the impetus it was given. If it were
started too fast, then the expansion energy would, early on,
have become so dominant (in other words, fl would have
become so small) that galaxies and stars would never have
been able to pull themselves together via gravity and con-
dense out; the universe would expand for ever, but there
would be no chance of life. On the other hand, the expansion
must not have been too slow: otherwise the universe would
have recollapsed too quickly to a Big Crunch.
Any emergent complexity must feed on non-uniformities in
density and in temperature (our own biosphere, for example,
energizes itself by absorbing the Sun's 'hot' radiation and re-
emitting it into cold interstellar space). Without being to the
slightest degree anthropocentric in our concept of life, we can
therefore conclude that a universe has to expand out of its
'fireball' state, and at least cool down below 3000 degrees,
before any life can begin. If the initial expansion were too
slow to permit this, there would be no chance for life.
In this perspective, it looks surprising that our universe was
initiated with a very finely-tuned impetus, almost exactly
enough to balance the decelerating tendency of gravity. It's
like sitting at the bottom of a well and throwing a stone up so
that it just comes to a halt exactly at the top - the required
precision is astonishing: at one second after the Big Bang, f'l
cannot have differed from unity by more than one part in a
million billion (one in 10'~) in order that the universe should
now, after ten billion years, be still expanding and with a
value of fl that has certainly not departed wildly from unity.
We have already noted that any complex cosmos must
 THE FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER AND R 89

incorporate a 'large number' ?V reflecting the weakness of

gravity, and must also have a value of E that allows nuclear
and chemical processes to take place. But these conditions,
though necessary, are not sufficient. Only a universe with a
'finely tuned' expansion rate can provide the arena for these
processes to unfold. So fl must be added to our list of crucial
numbers. It had to be tuned amazingly close to unity in the
early universe. If expansion was too fast, gravity could never
pull regions together to make stars or galaxies; if the initial
impetus were insufficient, a premature Big Crunch would
quench evolution when it had barely begun.
Cosmologists react to this 'tuning' in different ways. The
most common reaction seems, at first sight, perverse. This is
to argue that because our early universe was set up with fl
very close to unity, there must be some deep reason why it is
exactly one; in other words, because the 'tuning' is very
precise, it must be absolutely perfect. This odd-looking style
of reasoning has actually served well in other contexts; for
instance, we know that in a hydrogen atom, the positive
electric charge on the proton is cancelled by the negative
charge on the orbiting electron, to immense precision - better
than one part in loz1.No measurement can, however, tell us
that the net charge on an atom is exactly zero: there is always
some margin of error. So-called 'grand unified theories',
which interrelate electrical forces with nuclear forces, have,
within the last twenty years, suggested a deep reason why the
cancellation is exact. However, most physicists even fifty
years ago would have guessed that the cancellation was exact,
even though there weren't then any convincing arguments.
Another surprise is that the expansion rate (the Hubble
constant) is the same in all directions: it can be described by a
single 'scale factor', depicting the lengthening of the rods in
Escher's lattice - see Figure 5.1. We could easily imagine a
universe where the stretching was faster in some directions
than in others. A less-uniform universe would seem to have
more options open to it. Why, when we observe remote
regions in opposite directions, do they look so similar and
synchronized? Or why is the temperature of the background
radiation, which has not been scattered since the temperature
was 3000 degrees, almost the same all over the sky? As we
shall see in Chapter 9, there is an attractive explanation -
invoking a so-called 'inflationary phase' - for these features of
our universe, and for the fine tuning of fk in the early
universe.
 CHAPTER 7
............................................................................................
T H E NUMBER A: I S C O S M I C E X P A N S I O N
S L O W I N G O R SPEEDING?

The universe may

Be as large as they say.
But it wouldn't be missed
If it didn't exist.
Piet Hein

SEEING BACK INTO T H E PAST

....................................................
Our universe contains more mass in dark matter than in
ordinary atoms. But is there enough to provide the full
'critical density' - to make fk exactly equal to unity? The
inferred amount within galaxies and clusters of galaxies falls
short of this. However, dark matter uniformly spread through
the universe would not influence the internal motions within
clusters, nor the light-bending due to clusters, which magni-
fies and distorts the images of very distant galaxies. It would
therefore be even more elusive. The extra material would only
betray its presence by affecting the overall cosmic expansion.
Can we, therefore, discover how the expansion rate is
changing?
This is certainly possible in principle. The redshift of a
distant object tells us how it was moving when its light set
out, as opposed to how it is moving now. By observing the
redshifts and distances of a remote population of galaxies (or
any other type of object) we can therefore infer the expansion
rate at an earlier era. Comparison with the present rate then
tells us how much (if at all) the expansion rate has been
changing.
Any change in the expansion rate would be so gradual that
it would only show up over a 'baseline' of several billion
years, so there is no hope of detecting it unless we can observe
objects several billion light-years away. This isn't in itself an
impediment, because superbly instrumented telescopes with
ten-metre mirrors are now probing back to when the universe
was no more than a tenth of its present age. More serious is
the problem of finding distant objects that are sufficiently
standardized, and allowing for the possibility that they look
intrinsically different from their nearby counterparts because
they are being observed at an earlier stage in their evolution.
The easiest objects to detect at high redshifts are 'quasars',
the hyperactive centres of galaxies. They are very far from
being 'standard candles': quasars with similar redshifts (in
other words, at similar distances) display a wide range of
apparent brightness. Even worse, they are so poorly under-
stood that we do not know how their intrinsic properties
might change as the universe gets older.
Galaxies themselves are somewhat better understood than
quasars (though not as luminous), and we can now see them
out to equally large redshifts, but here too there are problems.
There is a whole zoo of different types, which are hard to
classify. And they evolve as they age. They do this for several
reasons: the existing stars evolve and die; new stars form from
gas; or stars are added to the galaxy because it captures
smaller neighbours (this is called 'galactic cannibalism').
Galaxies are too complicated, too varied and still too poorly
understood to serve as 'standard candles'. They are far less
well-understood than individual stars. Single stars are far too
faint to be detected at cosmological distances: our telescopes
detect a whole galaxy by picking up the total light from its
billions of constituent stars. But some stars, in their death-
throes, explode as supernovae, and for a few days blaze nearly
 THE NUMBER h 93

as brightly as a whole galaxy containing many billions of

ordinary stars.

H U N T I N G D I S T A N T SUPERNOVAE
...,.,.....,.........................I..,.*.***************

A distinctive type of supernova, technically known as a 'Type

la', signals a sudden nuclear explosion in the centre of a
dying star, when its burnt-out core gets above a particular
threshold of mass and becomes unstable. It is, in effect, a
nuclear bomb with a standard yield. The physics is fairly well
understood, and the details need not concern us. What is
important is that Type l a supernovae can be regarded as
'standard candles', bright enough to be detected at great
distances. From how bright they appear, it should be possible
to infer reliable distances, and thereby (by measuring the
redshift as well) to relate the expansion speed and distance at
a past epoch. Cosmologists hoped that such measurements
would distinguish between a small slowdown-rate (expected
if the dark matter has all been accounted for) or the larger rate
expected if - as many theorists suspected - there was enough
extra dark matter to make up the full 'critical density' so that
the universe resembled the simplest theoretical model.
These supernovae, incidentally, display another trend that
relates directly to their redshift: the remotest and most red-
shifted ones appear to flare up and fade more slowly than
closer ones of the same type. This is exactly what we would
expect: a clock on a receding object should run slow. If it sends
out periodic 'beeps', the later ones have further to travel, and
so the intervals between their arrival are lengthened.'
The brightening and fading of a supernova is itself like a
clock, so a slowdown in the 'light curves', proportional to the
redshift, is just what we would expect if they are receding. It
would have no natural explanation in a static universe. This
is the best counter to any suspicion that the redshift is due to
some kind of 'tired light' effect.
94 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Astronomy is, in sociological terms, a 'big science': it

requires large and expensive equipment. But the research
programmes themselves generally don't require industrial-
style teamwork of a kind that is obligatory in, for instance, the
laboratories that use big accelerators to study subnuclear
particles. Astronomers can still be individualists, pursuing
solo projects by competing for a few nights' observing time on
big telescopes (or, of course, by doing something innovative
with a small telescope, like the astronomers who first dis-
covered planets around other stars). But the enterprise of using
supernovae for cosmology requires prolonged effort by many
collaborators, using several telescopes. The first challenge is to
'catch' some photons - faint traces of light - from a stellar
explosion that occurred billions of years ago. Distant super-
novae are picked out by surveying the same patches of sky
repeatedly, looking for occasional transient points of light in
remote galaxies. The searches are done with moderately-sized
telescopes because the biggest instruments are in such demand
that not enough time can be allocated to any single programme,
even one as important as this. Each supernova must then be
observed repeatedly, so as to plot out its 'light curve' and
measure the apparent brightness as accurately as possible. This
preferably requires a ten-metre telescope on the ground, or the
Hubble Space Telescope. Analysing all the data, and assessing
its reliability, is itself an elaborate task.
There is a natural tendency to suspend judgement on any
novel scientific claim, especially when it is unexpected, until
it has been corroborated by independent evidence. There is
sometimes a hstrating delay before this happens. It was
therefore fortunate that two separate teams dedicated them-
selves to the 'supernova cosmology project'. The first serious
entrant into the field was Saul Perlmutter, a physicist based at
the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory in California. Perhaps
because he didn't then have much background in astronomy,
he wasn't deterred by the difficulties and began his involve-
ment around 1990. He gradually attracted and inspired a
group of collaborators, from the UK as well as the US. A
 THE NUMBER h 95

second group, also international, assembled later; this latter

group contained several researchers who had introduced new
techniques (which were then adopted also by Perlmutter's
group) to classify the supernovae into subclasses that were
even more standardized.
By 1998, each team had discovered about a dozen distant
supernovae and mustered enough confidence to announce
provisional results. There was less deceleration than would
be expected if a
were equal to one. This in itself wasn't
surprising - there was no evidence for enough dark matter to
raise above around 0.3 - though it went against a strong
theoretical prejudice that the cosmos would be 'simpler' if
were exactly unity. But what was a surprise was that there
seemed no deceleration at all - indeed, the expansion seemed
to be speeding up. The US-based magazine Science rated this
as the number-one scientific discovery of 1998 in any field of
research.
These observations are right at the limits of what is possible
with existing telescopes. Remote supernovae are so faint that
it's hard to measure them accurately. Furthermore, some
astronomers worry that an intervening 'fog' of dust could
attenuate the light, making the supernovae seem further away
than they actually are. Also, the 'bomb' may not be quite
standardized: for instance, its yield may depend on the
amount of carbon etc in the precursor star, which would be
systematically lower in objects that formed when the universe
was younger (in other words, those that we observe with the
highest redshifts). But cross-checks are being made, and every
month more supernovae are added to the sample.

A N ACCELERATING UNIVERSE?
..........a 1.1...................................,.*,.

An acceleration in the cosmic expansion implies something

remarkable and unexpected about space itself: there must be
an extra force that causes a 'cosmic repulsion' even in a
96 JUST SIX NUMBERS

vacuum. This force would be indiscernible in the Solar

System; nor would it have any effect within our galaxy; but
it could overwhelm gravity in the still more rarified environ-
ment of intergalactic space. Despite the gravitational pull of
the dark matter (which, acting alone, would cause a gradual
deceleration), the expansion could then actually be speeding
up. And we have to add another crucial number to our list to
describe the strength of this 'antigravity'.
We normally think of the vacuum as 'nothing'. But if one
were to remove from a region of interstellar space the few
particles that it contains, and even shield it from the radiation
passing through it, and cool it to the absolute zero of
temperature, the emptiness that's left may still exert some
residual force. Einstein himself conjectured this. As early as
1917, soon after he had developed his theory of general
relativity, he began to think how that theory might apply to
the universe. At that time, astronomers only really knew
about our own galaxy, and the natural presumption was that
the universe was static - neither expanding nor contracting.
Einstein found that a universe that was set up in a static state
would immediately start to contract because everything in it
attracts everything else. A universe couldn't persist in a static
state unless an extra force counteracted gravity. So he added
to his theory a new number, which he called the 'cosmologi-
cal constant', and denoted by the Greek letter (lambda).
Einstein's equations then allowed a static universe where, for
a suitable value of X, a cosmic repulsion exactly balanced
gravity. This universe was finite but unbounded: any light
beam that you transmitted would eventually return and hit
the back of your head.
This so-called 'Einstein universe' became no more than a
curiosity after 1929. Astronomers had by then realized that
our galaxy was just one of many, and that distant galaxies
were receding from us: the universe wasn't static, but was
expanding. Einstein thereafter lost interest in A. Indeed,
George Gamow's autobiography My World Line recalls a
conversation in which Einstein, three years before his death,
 THE NUMBER A 97

rated X as his 'biggest blunder', because if he hadn't

introduced it, his equations would have obligated the conclu-
sion that our universe would be expanding (or contracting).
He could then maybe have predicted the expansion before
Edwin Hubble discovered it.
Einstein's reason for inventing X has been obsolete for
seventy years. But that doesn't discredit the concept itself. On
the contrary, X now seems less contrived and ad hoc than
Einstein thought it was. Empty space, we now realize, is
anything but simple. All kinds of particles are latent in it. Any
particle, together with its antiparticle, can be created by a
suitable concentration of energy. On an even tinier scale,
empty space may be a seething tangle of strings, manifesting
structures in extra dimensions. From our modern perspective
the puzzle is: Why is so small? Why don't all the
complicated processes that are going on, even in empty
space, have a net effect that is much larger? Why isn't space
as dense as an atomic nucleus or a neutron star (in which case
it would close up on itself within ten or twenty kilornetres)?
Or even, perhaps, why isn't space as dense as the universe
was at seconds - an era whose significance for unified
theories is discussed in later chapters? In fact, it is lower
than that ultra-early density by a factor of 10l Z 0- perhaps the
worst failure of an order-of-magnitude guess in the whole
of science. The value of X may not be exactly zero, but it is
certainly so weak that it can only compete with the very
dilute gravity of intergalactic space.
Some theorists have suggested that space has a complicated
microstructure of tiny black holes that adjusts itself to
compensate for any other energy in the vacuum, and leads to
A being exactly zero. If our universe is indeed accelerating,
and X is not zero. this would scupper such arguments and
also caution us against the line of thought that 'because
something is remarkably small, there must be some deep
reason why it is exactly zero'.
98 JUST SIX NUMBERS

T H E CASE F O R A N O N - Z E R O h
......................... I.**.*.**.****************.*

The case for a non-zero h at the time of writing (Spring 1999)

is strong but not overwhelming. There could be unsuspected
trends or errors in the supernova observations that haven't
been properly allowed for. But other evidence, albeit of a
slightly technical and indirect kind, bolsters the case for an
accelerating universe. The background radiation - the 'after-
glow' surviving from the Big Bang - is not completely uniform
across the sky; there is a slight patchiness in the temperature,
caused by the non-uniformities that evolve into galaxies and
clusters. The expected size of the most prominent patches can
be calculated. How large they appear in the sky - whether, for
instance, they are one degree across or two degrees across -
depends on the amount of focusing by the gravity of every-
thing along the line of sight. Measurements of this kind
weren't achieved until the late 1990s (they are made from
high dry mountain sites, from Antarctica, or from long-
duration balloon flights) and they tell against a straightfor-
ward low-density universe. If were really 0.3, and h were
exactly zero, the seeds of clusters would appear smaller than
they actually do. However, any energy latent in the vacuum
contributes to the focusing. If h were around 0.7, we get a
pleasant consistency with these results, as well as with the
supernova evidence for accelerating expansion.
Gravity is the dominant force in planets, stars and galaxies.
But on the still-larger scale of the universe itself, the average
density is so low that a different force may take over. The
cosmic number h - describing the weakest force in nature, as
well as the most mysterious - seems to control the universe's
expansion and its eventual fate. Einstein's 'blunder' may
prove a triumphant insight after all. If it does, it will not be
the only instance in which his work has had an impact that he
himself failed to foresee. The most remarkable implication of
general relativity is that it predicted black holes; but his
attitude was summarized thus by Freeman s son:'
 THE NUMBER 99

Einstein was not only sceptical, he was actively hostile, to the

idea of black holes. He thought the black hole solution was a
blemish to be removed from the theory by a better mathematical
formulation, not a consequence to be tested by observation. He
never expressed the slightest enthusiasm for black holes, either
as a concept or a physical possibility.

If h isn't zero, we are confronted with the problem of why it

has the value we observe - one smaller, by very many powers
of ten, than what seems its 'natural' value. Our present cosmic
environment would be very little different if it were even
smaller (though the long-range forecast, discussed below,
would be somewhat altered). However, a much higher value
of h would have had catastrophic consequences: instead of
becoming competitive with gravity only after galaxies have
formed, a higher-valued A would have overwhelmed gravity
earlier on, during the higher-density stages. If h started to
dominate before galaxies had condensed out from the ex-
panding universe, or if it provided a repulsion strong enough
to disrupt them, then there would be no galaxies. Our
existence requires that h should not have been too large.

T H E LONG-RANGE FUTURE
................................................

Geologists infer the Earth's history from strata in the rocks;

climatologists can infer changes in temperature over the last
million years by drilling through successive layers of Antarc-
tic ice. Likewise, astronomers can study cosmic history by
taking 'snapshots' of the galaxies at different distances: those
more remote from us (with larger redshifts) are being viewed
at earlier stages in their evolution. The challenge for theorists
(see Chapter 8) is to understand galaxies and how they evolve,
and to produce computer simulations that faithfully match
the reality.
Most galaxies have now settled down into a sedate
100 JUST SIX NUMBERS

maturity, an equilibrium where their 'metabolism' has slowed.

Fewer new stars are forming, and few bright blue stars are
shining. But what about the long-range future? What would
happen if we came back when the universe was ten times
older - a hundred billion rather than ten billion years old? My
favoured guess (before there was much relevant evidence)
used to be that the expansion would by then have halted and
been succeeded by recollapse to a Big Crunch in which
everything experienced the same fate as an astronaut who
falls inside a black hole. Our universe would then have a
finite timespan for its continued existence, as well as being
bounded in space. But this scenario requires fl to exceed
unity in value, contrary to the evidence that has mounted up
in recent years. Dark matter assuredly exists, but there does
not seem to be enough to yield the full 'critical density': fl
seems to be less than unity. Furthermore, an extra cosmic
repulsion, described by A, may actually be speeding-up the
expansion of our universe.
It seems likely that expansion will continue indefinitely.
We can't predict what role life will have carved out for itself
ten billion (or more) years hence: it could be extinct; on the
other hand, it could have evolved to a state where it can
influence the entire cosmos, perhaps even invalidating this
forecast. But we can compute the eventual fate of the
inanimate universe: even the slowest-burning stars would
die, and all the galaxies in our Local Group - our Milky Way,
Andromeda, and dozens of smaller galaxies - would merge
into a single system. Most of the original gas would by then be
tied up in the dead remnants of stars; some would be black
holes; others would be very cold neutron stars or white
dwarfs.
Looking still further ahead, processes far too slow to be
discernible today could come into their own. Collisions
between stars within a typical galaxy are immensely infre-
quent (fortunately for our Sun), but their number would
mount up. The drawn-out terminal phases of our galaxy
would be sporadically lit up by intense flares, each signalling
 THE NUMBER h 101

a collision between two dead stars. The loss of energy via

gravitational radiation (an effect predicted by Einstein's
theory of general relativity) - imperceptibly slow today,
except in a few binary stars where the orbits are specially
close and fast - would, given enough time, grind down all
stellar and planetary orbits. Even atoms may not live for ever.
In consequence, white dwarfs and neutron stars will erode
away because their constituent particles decay. Eventually,
black holes will also decay. The surface of a hole is made
slightly fuzzy by quantum effects, and it consequently
radiates. In our present universe, this effect is too slow to be
interesting unless mini-holes the size of atoms actually exist.
The timescale is years for the total decay of a stellar-mass
hole; and a hole weighing as much as a billion suns would
erode away in log3years.
Eventually, after 10lo0years have passed, the only surviv-
ing vestige of our Local Group of galaxies would be just a
swarm of dark matter and a few electrons and positrons. All
galaxies beyond our Local Group would undergo the same
internal decay, and would move further from us. But the
speed with which they disperse depends crucially on the
value of A. If A were zero, the pull of ordinary gravity would
slow down the recession: although galaxies would move
inexorably further away, their speed (and redshift) would
gradually diminish but never quite drop to zero. If our remote
descendants had powerful-enough telescopes to detect highly
redshifted galaxies, despite their intrinsic fading and ever-
increasing remoteness, they would actually be able to detect
more than are visible in our present sky. After (say) 100
billion years, we would be able to see out as far as 100 billion
light-years; objects that are now far beyond our present
horizon, because their light hasn't yet had time to reach us,
would come into view.
But if h isn't zero, the cosmic repulsion will push galaxies
away from each other at an accelerating rate. They will fade
from view even faster because their redshifts increase rather
than diminish. Our range of vision will be bounded by a
102 JUST SIX NUMBERS

horizon that is rather like an inside-out version of the horizon

around a black hole. When things fall into a black hole, they
accelerate, getting more and more redshifted and fading from
view as they approach the hole's 'surface'. A galaxy in a h-
dominated universe would accelerate away from us, moving
ever closer to the speed of light as it approaches the horizon.
At late times, we will not see any further than we do now. All
galaxies (except Andromeda and the other small galaxies
gravitationally bound into our own Local Group) would be
fated to disappear from view. Their distant future lies beyond
our horizon, as inaccessible to us as the events inside a black
hole. Extragalactic space will become exponentially emptier
as the aeons advance.
 CHAPTER 8
............................................................................................
P R I M O R D I A L 'RIPPLES': T H E N U M B E R Q

The universe was brought into being in a less than fully formed
state, but was gifted with the capacity to transform itself from
unformed matter into a truly marvellous array of structure and
life forms.
St Augustine

GRAVITY A N D ENTROPY
..........................................
In nature, as in music or painting, the most appealing patterns
are neither completely regular and repetitive nor completely
random and unpredictable, but they combine both these
features. The elaborately structured cosmic environment that
we see around us is not completely ordered; nor has it run
down to an utterly random state. There are ninety-two
different kinds of atoms in nature, rather than just the simple
hydrogen, deuterium and helium that were forged in the Big
Bang. Some of these atoms now find themselves in complex
organisms in our Earth's biosphere; some are in stars; others
are dispersed in the voids of intergalactic space. And the
temperature contrasts are also immense: the stars have
blazing surfaces (and still hotter centres), but the dark sky is
close to the 'absolute zero' of temperature -warmed to just 2.7
degrees by the microwave afterglow from the Big Bang.
That this intricate complexity all emerged from a boringly
104 JUST SIX NUMBERS

amorphous fireball might seem to violate a hallowed physical

principle: the Second Law of Thermodynamics. This law
describes an inexorable tendency towards uniformity, and
away from patterns and structure: things tend to cool if
they're hot, and to warm up if they're cold. Ink and water
can readily mix, whereas the reverse process - stirring a
murky liquid until the dye concentrates into a black drop -
would astonish us. Ordered states get messed up, but not the
reverse. In technical jargon, 'entropy' can never decrease. An
apparent decrease locally is always outweighed by an entropy
increase elsewhere. The classic example of this principle is a
steam engine, where the ordered motion of a piston is always
accompanied by wasted heat.
We need to rethink our intuitions, however, when gravity
comes into play. Stars, for instance, are held together by the
inward pull of their own gravity. This is balanced by the
pressure of their hot interiors pushing out. Odd though it
seems, stars heat u p when they lose energy. Suppose that the
fuel supply in the Sun's centre were switched off. Its surface
would stay bright because heat diffuses from the even hotter
core. If nuclear fusion didn't regenerate this heat, the Sun
would gradually deflate as energy leaked away (within about
ten million years, as Lord Kelvin realized in the nineteenth
century). But this deflation would actually make the core
hotter than before: gravity pulls more strongly at shorter
distances, and the central temperature would have to rise in
order to provide enough pressure to balance the greater force
pressing down on it. Something similar happens when an
artificial satellite gradually spirals in to a lower orbit because
of atmospheric drag: it heats up, but only half the energy
released from gravity goes into heat; the other half goes into
speeding up the satellite (because a closer-in orbit is faster).
So it should not surprise us that new stars condense within
irregular clouds of cool dusty gas. The densest regions
contract because of their own gravity, becoming so com-
pressed that they light up as stars. Exactly how this happens
in, for instance, the Orion cloud or the Eagle Nebula, and the
 P R I M O R D I A L 'RIPPLES': THE N U M B E R Q 105

proportions of big and small stars that result from this

process, are still too hard to calculate even with the biggest
computers. (This is why we aren't sure how many brown
dwarf stars there are, which could contribute to the dark
matter in our galaxy.) But star formation poses no mystery in
principle: once gravity gets a grip on a system, it inexorably
contracts.

F R O M T H E BIG BANG TO GALAXIES

..........................*.....*..*..*........*..*...........
The gas clouds within our galaxy (and within others) have
been churned and recycled so much that they retain no
'memory' of their origins. Star formation is therefore insensi-
tive to the wider cosmos. But the emergence of the galaxies
themselves is less straightforward than the equivalent process
for stars. Their origin lies in the early universe; they are
shaped by their 'genetics' as well as by their environment.
If our universe had started off completely smooth and
uniform, it would have remained so throughout its expan-
sion. After ten billion years, it would contain thinly spread
dark matter, and hydrogen and helium gas so rarified that
there was less than one atom in each cubic metre. It would be
cold and dull: no galaxies, therefore no stars, no periodic
table, no complexity, certainly no people. But even very slight
irregularities in the early phases make a crucial difference,
because density contrasts amplify during the expansion. Any
patch slightly denser than average decelerates more, because
it feels extra gravity; its expansion lags further and further
behind that of an average region. (If, by analogy, we throw two
balls upwards with slightly different speeds, their trajectories
may, to start with, differ only imperceptibly. The slower ball,
however, will have completely stopped, and already started
to fall, while the faster is still moving upwards.) Gravity
amplifies slight 'ripples' in an almost featureless fireball,
enhancing the density contrasts until the overdense regions
stop expanding and condense into structures held together by
gravity.
The most conspicuous structures in the cosmos - stars,
galaxies, and clusters of galaxies - are all held together by
gravity. We can express how tightly they are bound together -
or, equivalently, how much energy would be needed to break
up and disperse them - as a proportion of their total 'rest-
mass energy' (mc2).For the biggest structures in our universe
- clusters and superclusters - the answer is about one part in
a hundred thousand. This is a pure number - a ratio of two
energies - and we call it Q.
The fact that Q i s so small (of the order of means that
gravity is actually quite weak in galaxies and clusters. New-
ton's theory is therefore good enough for describing how the
stars move within a galaxy, and how each galaxy traces out an
orbit under the gravitational influence of all the other galaxies
and the dark matter within a cluster. The smallness of Qalso
means that we can validly treat our universe as approximately
homogeneous, just as we'd regard a globe as smooth and
round if the height of the waves or ripples on its surface were
only 11100,000of its radius (equivalent to only 60 metres for a
globe the size of the Earth).
The ripples would have been imprinted very early on,
before the universe 'knew' about galaxies and clusters; there
would be nothing special about these sizes (or, indeed, about
any dimensions that seemed significant in our present
universe). The simplest guess would be that nothing in the
early universe favours one scale rather than another, so that
the ripples are the same on every scale. The degree of initial
'roughness' was somehow established when our entire uni-
verse was of microscopic size: how this could have happened
is conjectured in the next chapter. The number Q i s crucial for
determining the 'texture' of structure in our universe, which
would be very different if its value were either much larger or
much smaller.
 P R I M O R D I A L 'RIPPLES': T H E N U M B E R Q 107

RIPPLES IN T H E M I C R O W A V E A F T E R G L O W
.......*......*.....*...**..................*...**.*..*...*..*..**.**.....
Our universe started off dense and opaque, like the glowing
gas inside a star. But after half a million years of expansion,
the temperature had dropped to around 3000 degrees -
slightly cooler than the Sun's surface. As the universe cooled
further, it literally entered a dark age. The darkness persisted
until the first protogalaxies formed and lit it up again.
Probing how the dark age ended is a challenge for
astronomers in the next decade. Much hope is placed in the
proposed 'Next Generation Space Telescope'. This is planned
to have sensitive detectors for red light and infrared radiation,
and an eight-metre mirror (compared with only 2.4 metres for
the Hubble Space Telescope).
The microwave background radiation, the afterglow from
the Big Bang itself, is a direct message from an era when
galaxies only existed 'in embryo'. Slightly overdense regions,
expanding slower than average, were destined to become
galaxies or clusters; others, slightly underdense, were des-
tined to become voids. And the microwave temperature
should bear the imprint of these fluctuations. The expected
effect would be about one part in 100,000 - essentially the
same number as Q the fundamental number characterizing
the ripple amplitude.
An undoubted cosmological triumph of the 1990s has been
the actual mapping of these precursors of cosmic structure.
The background microwave radiation is about a hundred
times weaker than the emission from the Earth (whose surface
temperature is about 300 degrees above absolute zero). The
daunting technical challenge is to measure temperature
differences a hundred thousand times smaller still. NASA's
COBE satellite, launched in 1990, achieved outstanding
accuracy in confirming that the microwaves had a 'black
body' spectrum (see Chapter 5). It also carried the first
instrument sensitive enough to discern that the radiation
from some directions was slightly hotter than from others. It
108 JUST SIX NUMBERS

scanned the whole sky, measuring the temperature with

enough precision to map its non-uniformities.
Measurements of this kind are best made from space
because water vapour in the atmosphere absorbs some of the
radiation. COBE has been followed up by further measure-
ments, made from mountaintops, from the South Pole (where
the water vapour is low) or from equipment flown in balloons.
These new experiments can only map a small area - not the
entire sky, as a satellite can - but they achieve the same
sensitivity at enormously less expense.
The next big advance will, however, come from two space-
craft that will carry more advanced and sensitive sensors than
COBE did: NASA's Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) and
the European Space Agency's PlanckISurveyor. These will,
within a few years, yield precise-enough data on the 'rough-
ness' of the early universe on many different scales, to settle
key questions about how galaxies emerged. The microwave
background carries a lot of information about the ultra-early
universe. It will, for instance, help to pin down fl and A, as
well as Q.
It was actually a relief rather than a surprise to find non-
uniformities in the afterglow temperature at a level of one part
in 100,000. If the background microwaves had implied an
even smoother early universe, the clusters and superclusters
in our present universe would have been a puzzle: there
would need to have been some extra force, apart from gravity,
that could enhance the density contrasts even faster.
But the fact that Q is only 11100,000 is really the most
remarkable feature of our universe. If you picked up a stone
that was spherical to a precision of one part in 100,000, you
might wonder what caused the small irregularities but you'd
be even more perplexed by the overall smoothness. 'Inflation',
described in Chapter 9, is the best theory we have of this, and
the temperature fluctuations offer important tests of these
ideas.
T H E E V O L U T I O N OF 'VIRTUAL' UNIVERSES
........................,*.,,*.*,.....*..*.**.*.*.*.**..*.*********........
When the universe was a million years old, everything was
still expanding almost uniformly. How did the structures
condense out, and develop into the cosmic scene we now
observe? Nowadays we can use a computer to study 'virtual'
universes. At the start of the simulation the material is
expanding, but not quite uniformly because irregularities
corresponding to the specified value of Q are fed in as part
of the initial conditions.
The dominant gravitating stuff is the 'dark matter', particles
surviving from the early universe that hardly ever collide
with each other, but are influenced by gravity. If you averaged
over larger and larger volumes, the early universe would have
appeared increasingly smooth.' This means that, were gravity
the only relevant force, small scales would condense first.
Cosmic structure forms hierarchically, from the bottom up.
Swarms of dark matter on subgalactic scales condense out
first; these merge into galactic-mass objects, which then form
clusters. It takes longer for gravity to reverse the expansion on
larger scales.
But this hierarchical clustering in itself leads to a dark and
sterile universe. The 'leaven' for the universe is the atoms.
Their total mass is much less than that of the dark matter: they
ride along passively, constituting a dilute gas that 'feels' the
dark matter's gravity. But everything we actually see depends
on this gas.
The gas behaves in a more complicated way than the dark
matter, because gravity isn't the only force acting on it. Gas
'feels' gravity, but it exerts a pressure as well. This pressure
prevents the gas from being pulled by gravity into very small
'clumps' of dark matter, but gravity wins on scales above a
million solar masses! The first gaseous condensations to form
- those that would cause the 'first light' that ends the cosmic
dark age - are consequently a million times heavier than stars.
The computer programs used to follow the gas motions
110 JUST SIX NUMBERS

resemble those used by aeronautical engineers to study flows

around wings and through turbines. Such calculations are
deemed reliable enough to be a substitute for wind-tunnel
tests; but, even so, computing what happens inside one of
these collapsing clouds is much harder, and nobody has yet
performed a simulation that starts with a single cloud and
ends up with a population of stars. A cloud containing a
million solar masses of gas could fragment into a million
separate stars like the Sun, or into fewer objects of larger
mass. It could even remain in one piece, and contract into a
single superstar or quasar.
These first objects would have formed when the universe
was only a few hundred million years old - a few per cent of
its present age. By the time the universe was a billion years
old, galaxy-sized structures would have built up, each an
assemblage of stars and held together not only by its own
gravity but by the dark matter, which is configured in a
'swarm' ten times larger and heavier. Gas continues to fall
inwards into these objects and to cool down. If it is spinning,
the gas settles into a disc, and condenses into stars, thereby
initiating the recycling process that synthesizes and disperses
all the elements of the periodic table.
Computer simulations that show at least the broad outline
of these processes can be run as movies, depicting the
expansion of our universe and the emergence of galaxies
about sixteen powers of ten faster than actually happened!
Figure 8.1 shows six frames from one such simulation.
Like the individual galaxies, clusters and superclusters are
the outcome of gravitational aggregation. The newly formed
galaxies would not have been spread completely uniformly -
there would be slightly more in some places than in others. As
the expansion continued, regions containing excess mass
would suffer extra deceleration, so that the galaxies in those
regions ended up conspicuously more closely packed than
average.
How can we check whether a virtual universe is indeed an
accurate resemblance to our real one? The simulation must
112 JUST SIX NUMBERS

mimic the observed properties of galaxies today - their

characteristic sizes and shapes, the proportions that are disc-
like and the proportions that are elliptical - and the way that
they are clustered. But it must do more: it must match the
'snapshots' that tell us what galaxies were like, and how they
were clustered, at earlier times.
As discussed earlier, the light now reaching us from the
remotest galaxies (and which new-generation telescopes can
detect and analyse) set out when they were newly formed.
And they look different from present-day galaxies. None has
yet settled down into steadily spinning discs, and only a
small fraction of their constituent gas has yet turned into
stars. Most are small: it took successive mergers, and
cannibalism by dominant galaxies of their smaller neigh-
bours, to build up the large ones that we see today.
As a by-product of early star formation, something even
more interesting happens. Some of the gas settles into the
centre of the swarm of dark-matter particles, contracts under
its own gravity, and builds up into a 'superstar' more than a
million times heavier than an ordinary star. Such a big object
shines so brightly that its nuclear fuel doesn't last long; it
ends its life not by exploding but by collapsing to form a black
hole. Thus, once galaxy formation starts, space gets 'punc-
tured' by these holes. Gas continues to fall into them, releasing
a power that outshines the rest of the galaxy.
These objects are called 'quasars', or 'active galactic nuclei',
and they are interesting for two reasons. First, they shine
more brightly than the galaxies themselves, and therefore
serve as probes to illuminate the remote universe. Spectra of
quasar light reveal clouds of gas along the line of sight, and
yield our best evidence to date for the amount of deuterium -
an important check, as we have seen, on the Big Bang theory.
Secondly they permit important tests of Einstein's theory of
general relativity. The power they emit comes from material
that is swirling very close to a black hole, and perhaps even
from the spinning hole itself. There is no real chance of
getting an actual image of this flow - it would be even more of
 P R I M O R D I A L 'RIPPLES': T H E N U M B E R Q 113

a challenge than imaging an Earth-like planet around another

star - but the radiation it emits is redshifted by the strong
gravity (and this would be additional, of course, to the
ordinary cosmological redshift). There would also be large
Doppler shifts because of the high speed with which the gas
swirls around near the hole (red on the side that is moving
away; blue from the approaching gas on the other side). From
the inferred motions and gravitational fields, we can test
whether black holes have the actual exact properties that
Einstein's theory predicts.

HOW M U C H I S P R E D I C T A B L E ?
....................................................
If one had to summarize, in just one sentence, 'What's been
happening since the Big Bang?', the best answer might be to
take a deep breath and say: 'Ever since the beginning, gravity
has been moulding cosmic structures and enhancing tem-
perature contrasts, a prerequisite for the emergence of the
complexity that lies around us ten billion years later, and of
which we are part.'
Once systems form that are heavy enough to be self-
gravitating, departures from equilibrium grow. Our universe
can thus have evolved from a primordial fireball, uniformly
hot, into a structured state containing very hot stars radiating
into very cold empty space. This sets the stage for increas-
ingly intricate cosmic evolution, and the emergence of life.
Individual stars become denser as they evolve (some ending
as neutron stars or black holes), whereas overall the matter
gets more thinly spread. These complexities are the outcome
of a chain of events that cosmologists can trace back to an
ultra-dense primal medium that was almost structureless.
Our view of how cosmic structure emerged is, like the
Darwinian view of biological evolution, a compelling general
scheme. As with Darwinism, how the whole process got
started is still a mystery: the way Q is determined (perhaps
114 JUST SIX NUMBERS

as microscopic vibrations in the ultra-early universe) is still

perplexing, just as the origin of the first organisms on Earth is.
But cosmology is simpler in one important respect: once the
starting point is specified, the outcome is in broad terms
predictable. All large patches of the universe that start off the
same way end up statistically similar. In contrast, the gross
course of biological evolution is sensitive to 'accidents' -
climatic changes, asteroid impacts, epidemics and so forth -
so that, if the Earth's history were rerun, it could end up with
a quite different biosphere.
That's why computer simulations of structure formation
are so important. Galaxies and clusters are the outcome of
gravity acting on initial irregularities. We don't try to explain
the detailed pattern, only the statistics - just as an oceano-
grapher aims to understand the statistics of waves, not the
details of a wave in a single snapshot at a particular place and
time.
The starting point is an expanding universe, described by
a, X and Q. The outcome depends sensitively on these three
key numbers, imprinted (we are not sure how) in the very
early universe.

T H E TUNING OF Q
.................................

The formation of galaxies, clusters and superclusters ob-

viously requires the universe to contain enough dark matter
and enough atoms. The value of fl must not be too low: in a
universe that contained radiation and very little else, gravity
could never overwhelm pressure. And X mustn't be so high
that the cosmic repulsion overwhelms gravity before galaxies
have formed. There must also be enough ordinary atoms,
initially in diffuse gas, to form all of the stars in all of the
galaxies. But we've seen that something else is needed as
well, namely initial irregularities to 'seed' the growth of
structure. The number Q measures the amplitude of these
 P R I M O R D I A L 'RIPPLES': T H E N U M B E R Q 115

irregularities or 'ripples'. Why Q is about is still a

mystery. But its value is crucial: were it much smaller, or
much bigger, the 'texture' of the universe would be quite
different, and less conducive to the emergence of life forms.
If Q were smaller than but the other cosmic numbers
were unchanged, aggregations in the dark matter would take
longer to develop and would be smaller and looser. The
resultant galaxies would be anaemic structures, in which star
formation would be slow and inefficient, and 'processed'
material would be blown out of the galaxy rather than being
recycled into new stars that could form planetary systems. If
Q were smaller than loL6,gas would never condense into
gravitationally bound structures at all, and such a universe
would remain forever dark and featureless, even if its initial
'mix' of atoms, dark matter and radiation were the same as in
our own.
On the other hand, a universe where Q were substantially
larger than - where the initial 'ripples' were replaced by
large-amplitude waves - would be a turbulent and violent
place. Regions far bigger than galaxies would condense early
in its history. They wouldn't fragment into stars but would
instead collapse into vast black holes, each much heavier than
an entire cluster of galaxies in our universe. Any surviving gas
would get so hot that it would emit intense X-rays and gamma
rays. Galaxies (even if they managed to form) would be much
more tightly bound than the actual galaxies in our universe.
Stars would be packed too close together and buffeted too
frequently to retain stable planetary systems. (For similar
reasons, solar systems are not able to exist very close to the
centre of our own galaxy, where the stars are in a close-packed
swarm compared with our less-central locality).
The fact that Q is 11100,000 incidentally also makes our
universe much easier for cosmologists to understand than
would be the case if Qwere larger. A small Qguarantees that
the structures are all small compared with the horizon, and so
our field of view is large enough to encompass many
independent patches each big enough to be a fair sample. If
116 ]UST SIX NUMBERS

Q were much bigger, superclusters would themselves be

clustered into structures that stretched up to the scale of the
horizon (rather than, as in our universe, being restricted to
about one per cent of that scale). It would then make no sense
to talk about the average 'smoothed-out' properties of our
observable universe, and we wouldn't even be able to define
numbers such as a.
The smallness of Q, without which cosmologists would
have made no progress, seemed until recently a gratifying
contingency. Only now are we coming to realize that this isn't
just a convenience for cosmologists, but that life couldn't
have evolved if our universe didn't have this simplifying
feature.
 CHAPTER 9

OUR COSMIC HABITAT Ill:

WHAT LIES BEYOND OUR HORIZON?

Then assuredly the world was made, not in time, but

simultaneous with time. For that which is made in time is made
both after and before some time -after that which is past, before
that which is future. But none could then be past, for there was
no creature by whose movements its duration could be
measured. But simultaneously with time the world was made.
St Augustine

H O W BELIEVABLE IS THE BIG BANG STORY?

............................................................................
The Big Bang theory has lived dangerously for more than
thirty years. Various measurements could have refuted it if
they had turned out differently. Here are five of them:

Astronomers might have discovered an object whose

helium abundance was zero, or at any rate well below 23
per cent of that of hydrogen. This would have been fatal,
because fusion of hydrogen in stars can readily boost
helium above its pre-galactic abundance but there is no
way of converting all the helium back to hydrogen.

The background radiation measured so accurately by COBE

might have turned out to have a spectrum that differed from
the expected 'black body' or thermal form.'
118 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Physicists might have discovered something about neu-

trinos that was incompatible with the Big Bang. In the
'fireball', neutrinos would outnumber the atoms by a huge
factor - around a billion - just as the photons do. If each
neutrino weighed even a millionth as much as an atom,
they would, in total, contribute too much mass to the
present universe - more, even, than could be hidden in
dark matter. As discussed in Chapter 6, the actual masses (if
not zero) seem to be too low to embarrass the theory. But
they could have turned out higher.
The deuterium abundance could have been out of line with
the amount expected to survive from the Big Bang.
The temperature fluctuations over the sky could have
implied a value of Q that was incompatible with what is
inferred from the present-day structure in the universe,
rather than, as discussed in Chapter 8, being consistent
with a value of 1/1OO,OOO.

The Big Bang theory has survived these tests. The grounds for
extrapolating back to the stage when our universe had been
expanding for a second (when the helium began to form)
deserve to be taken as seriously as, for instance, inferences
from rocks and fossils about the early history of our Earth,
which are equally indirect (and less quantitative).
Perhaps we can deepen our understanding, and even
'explain' the key cosmic numbers, by extrapolating still fur-
ther back - not just into the first second but into the first tiny
fraction of a second.
We can confidently go back a bit closer to the Big Bang,but
not much. For the first millisecond we are less sure of the
physics because everything would have been denser than a
neutron star. Very hot and dense conditions can be simulated,
on a microscopic scale, by experiments that crash together
very energetic particles. But there are limits to how far back
this technique can take us. Not even the giant Large Hadron
Collider, being built at CERN in Geneva, will achieve the
120 JUST SIX NUMBERS

energies that all the particles in the Big Bang had during the
first seconds. Many crucial features of our universe
could have been imprinted when the cosmic clock was
reading seconds, or even less. In these contexts, each
factor of ten on the cosmic clock in the age of the universe -
each extra zero after the decimal point - is likely to be equally
eventful and should count equally. The leap back from
seconds to seconds is then bigger (in that it spans more
factors of ten) than the timespan between the three minute
threshold when helium was formed (about 200 seconds after
the Big Bang) and the present time (3 x 10" seconds, or ten
billion years). In this perspective, there is plenty of action at
even earlier stages.

UNIFICATION IN THE MICROWORLD

.....................,........................*....*......*.....
Right back at the beginning, the mysteries of the cosmos and
the microworld overlapped. To probe these mysteries, we
need to relate gravity, the dominant force on large scales, to
the other forces that govern individual particles. This is still
unfinished business. But the various forces and particles of
the subatomic world are now seen to fall into a pattern.
Early in the nineteenth century, Michael Faraday realized
that electricity and magnetism were intimately linked: a
moving magnet generated electric currents; a moving electric
charge, conversely, created a magnetic field. This principle
underlies electric motors and dynamos. In 1864 James Clark
Maxwell codified Faraday's discoveries into a famous set of
equations, which expressed how a changing electric field
generates a magnetic field, and vice versa. In empty space,
these equations have solutions where the electric and
magnetic fields oscillate. This is what light is: it's a wave of
electric and magnetic energy (as are radio waves, X-rays, and
the rest of what we now call the electromagnetic spectrum).
This left just two distinct forces: electromagnetism (per-
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT Ill 121

ceived as a single force) and gravity. Even Faraday yearned for

a unification between gravity and electromagnetism, although
he realized that it was premature. A hundred years on,
Einstein spent his later years seeking a deep connection
between these two forces. This was still a vain quest. Indeed,
we now realize that it was doomed because he didn't then
know about the short-range forces that govern atomic nuclei:
the 'strong' or nuclear force that binds the protons and
neutrons together in atomic nuclei (and determines our
number E); and the 'weak' force, important for radiative
decay and neutrinos. In the somewhat harsh view of his
most distinguished biographer, the physicist Abraham Pais,
Einstein 'might as well have gone fishing' for the last thirty
years of his life.
The challenge is now to unify four forces: the three that
govern the microworld - electromagnetism, the nuclear force,
and the 'weak' force - and the force of gravity. The first
modern step towards this unification was associated with the
names of Sheldon Glashow and Steven Weinberg in the US,
Gerard tYHooftin Holland, and the Pakistani physicist Abdus
Salam. The outcome of their work was to show that the
electric and magnetic forces (unified by Maxwell) are them-
selves linked to an apparently quite different force - the so-
called 'weak' force important for neutrinos and radioactivity.
These forces would have been the same in the very early
universe; they acquired distinctive identities only after the
universe had cooled below a critical temperature of about
10'~ degrees (which happened when it was lo-'' seconds
old). The biggest accelerators can simulate these tempera-
tures, and Salam and Weinberg were vindicated when
experiments at CERN discovered new particles that they
had predicted.
In the 1950s and 1960s, so many new kinds of particles
were discovered (supplementing the familiar electrons, neu-
trons and protons) that there seemed a risk that particle
physics would become like stamp collecting. But patterns
were discerned; the subatomic particles could be grouped
122 JUST SIX NUMBERS

into 'families', rather as the atoms in the periodic table fall

into 'periods' and 'groups'. In 1964, Murray Gell-Mann and
George Zweig, two American theorists, introduced the 'quark
model'. Quarks have charges that are 113 or 213 that of the
electron. Experimental support came from Jerome Friedman,
Henry Kendall and Richard Taylor, who used the newly
commissioned Stanford Linear Accelerator to crash electrons
into protons. They found that the electrons scattered as
though each proton was made up of three 'point charges',
carrying respectively 213, 213 and -113 of the total charge.
One counterintuitive aspect of the 'quark model', however, is
that an isolated quark can never be dislodged even though,
inside a proton, the quarks behave as though they are free.
(All attempts to detect fractionally charged particles have
failed.) By the late 19709, most of the 'particle zoo' had been
explained in terms of nine types of quark.
The so-called 'standard model' that emerged in the 1970s
has brought impressive order into the microworld. The
electromagnetic and 'weak' forces have been unified; and the
strong or nuclear forces have been interpreted in terms of
quarks, held together by another kind of particle called a
'gluon'. But nobody has taken this as the final word: the
number of elementary particles remains bewilderingly large,
and the equations still involve numbers that have to be
determined by experiment and can't be derived from theory
alone. In particular, the 'gluon' interpretation does not pin
down the strength of nuclear forces, crucially manifested in
our basic number E = 0.007.
The next goal after unifying the electromagnetic and weak
forces is to bring in the nuclear force, and thereby achieve a
so-called 'grand unified theory' (GUT) of all the forces
governing the microphysical world (although these theories
are still not grand enough to include gravity, which poses a
still greater challenge). A stumbling block is that the grand
unification is thought to occur at a temperature of
degrees. This is a million million times higher than experi-
ments can presently reach - and to achieve the requisite
 O U R C O S M I C HABITAT 1 1 1 123

energies would need an accelerator far bigger than our Solar

System. It is hard, therefore, to test these theories on Earth.
Their distinctive consequences in our low-energy world are
vestigial: for instance, protons, the main ingredient of all stars
and planets, would very slowly decay - an effect that could be
important in the remote future but is insignificant now.
Everything, however, would have been hotter than
degrees for the first seconds. Perhaps the early universe
was the only place where the requisite temperature for
unifying the forces could even be reached. This 'experiment'
shut down more than ten billion years ago, but did it leave
fossils behind, just as most of the helium in the universe
survives from the first few minutes? It seems that it did:
indeed, the favouritism of matter over antimatter (discussed
in Chapter 6 ) may have been imprinted at this ultra-early
stage. Even more important, the vast scale of the universe, and
the fact that it is expanding at all, may be determined by what
happened in those brief initial instants.

THE 'INFLATION' CONCEPT

..................................................

Two fundamental questions about our universe are: 'Why is it

expanding?' and 'Why is it so big?' We can trace out what
happens during the expansion, and we can extrapolate right
back to the first few seconds (and corroborate this with the
helium and deuterium abundance). But the so-called Big
Bang theory is really a description (and a quite successful
one) of what happened afier the Big Bang. It says nothing
about what set up the expansion in the first place. Another
puzzle is: 'Why does our universe have the overall uniformity
that makes cosmology tractable, while nonetheless allowing
the formation of galaxies, clusters and superclusters?' And,
still further: 'What imprinted the physical laws themselves?'
One basic mystery (discussed in Chapter 6 ) is why our
universe is expanding, after ten billion years, with f2 still not
124 JUST SIX NUMBERS

too different from a value of one. Our universe has neither

collapsed long ago, nor is it expanding so fast that its kinetic
energy has overwhelmed the effect of gravity by many powers
of ten. This requires fl to have been tuned amazingly close to
a value of unity in the early universe. What made everything
start expanding in this special way? Why, when we observe
remote regions in opposite directions, do they look so similar?
Or why is the temperature of the microwave afterglow almost
the same all over the sky?
These mysteries would be solved if all parts of our present
universe had synchronized and co-ordinated themselves very
early on, and then accelerated apart - and this is the key
postulate of the 'inflationary universe' theory. The (then)
young American physicist Alan Guth put forward this idea
in 1981. As so often happens in science, there were several
precursors, especially the theories of Alex Starobinski and
Andrei Linde in the Soviet Union and Katsumoto Sato in
Japan, but Guth made the arguments clear enough to convince
most of us that this was indeed a crucial insight. His book The
Inflationary universez recounts the 'eureka moment' when
the idea dawned on him, and how a lively community of
theorists debated and developed it further. (Guth also offers
frank sociological insight into the American academic scene,
from the perspective of a young researcher seeking a niche in
an overcrowded profession.)
According to the 'inflationary universe' theory, the reason
why our universe is so big, and why gravity and expansion are
so closely balanced, lies in something remarkable that
happened very early on, when our entire observable universe
was literally of microscopic size. At the colossal densities that
then prevailed, a 'cosmic repulsion', rather like an enorm-
ously strong A, came into play and overwhelmed ordinary
gravity. The expansion was 'kicked into overdrive', leading to
runaway acceleration, so that an embryo universe could have
inflated, homogenized, and established the 'fine-tuned' bal-
ance between gravitational and kinetic energy.
All this is supposed to have happened within about
seconds of the Big Bang! The conditions that prevailed back
then are far beyond what we can test experimentally, and the
details are therefore speculative. We can nonetheless make
guesses consistent with other physical theories and with what
we know about the later universe.
The idea behind the 'inflation' theory is compellingly
attractive because it seems to show how an entire universe
could evolve from a tiny 'seed'. This is deemed to have
happened because the expansion is exponential;it doubles,
then doubles, and then doubles again . . . Mathematical
formulae (unless they are very long and complicated indeed)
generally don't yield huge numbers. The only natural way for
a 'modest' number to generate a gigantic one - such as lo7' ,
the total number of atoms in our observable universe - is if it
is 'in the exponent' (to use mathematical jargon), so that it
tells how many times the size doubles. Each time a sphere
doubles its radius, its volume goes up by a factor of eight (in
ordinary Euclidean space); only a hundred of these doublings
would be needed in order to reach a number like
This is just what is proposed as happening during the
'inflationary' phase of our universe. The fierce repulsion that
drove inflation must have switched off, allowing the universe,
having by then enlarged enough to encompass everything that
we now see, to embark on its more leisurely expansion. This
transition converted the huge energy latent in the original
'vacuum' into ordinary energy, generating the heat of the
fireball and initiating the more familiar expansion process
that has led to our present universe.
The concept of inflation has been boisterously debated ever
since it was first proposed twenty years ago. It has been
through many variants, based on different assumptions about
how the pressure, density and so forth behaved under
conditions far beyond anything that we can study directly.
But the general idea will surely retain its appeal unless a
better one comes along. At the moment, if offers the only
credible explanation for why our universe is so large and so
uniform. It suggests why the universe is expanding at such a
126 JUST SIX NUMBERS

seemingly fine-tuned rate, so that it could heave itself up to

dimensions of ten billion light-years.

C A N W E TEST THE INFLATION THEORY?

..................
I................................................

If a wrinkled surface is stretched by a huge factor, then the

curvature reduces until any deviations from flatness are
imperceptible. The analogue of 'flatness' in cosmology is an
exact balance between (negative) gravitational energy and
(positive) expansion energy. This is the firmest generic
prediction of inflation. Is it fulfilled? The simplest kind of
flat universe is one in which fl is exactly unity. The evidence
in Chapter 5 that atoms and dark matter contribute only 0.3 of
the critical density seemed at first sight to be a setback.
Theorists therefore seized enthusiastically on the claim that
the expansion is accelerating, because the energy associated
with the number h must then be added in. Our universe
seems indeed to be 'flat' (though the more cautious among us
may say the jury is still out, and await a definitive verdict
within a few years). The 'mix' of stuff that makes up the
critical density is four per cent atoms and about 25 per cent
dark matter, the rest is the 'vacuum' itself.
This evidence of 'flatness' is moderately encouraging. It at
least motivates us to seek further tests, especially 'diagnos-
tics' that might reveal details of what happened during
inflation. Most detailed ideas about the ultra-early universe
have a short shelf-life. The first seconds is as uncertain
today as was the physics of one second after the Big Bang
when Gamow and other pioneers first explored the cosmolo-
gical origin of the elements. Their first ideas were wrong in
important respects, but were corrected and put on a firm
footing within a decade or two. Maybe we can share similar
hopes about a symbiosis between ultra-high-energy physics
and cosmology in the next decade.
Helium formation in the first few minutes involved nuclear
 O U R COSMIC HABITAT Ill 127

reactions and atomic collisions of a kind that can be

reproduced experimentally. In contrast, the processes during
the inflationary era that determine fundamental cosmic
numbers such as Q are too extreme to be simulated terrest-
rially, even in accelerators. That makes the new challenge
more daunting. On the other hand, that very fact provides an
extra motive for studying the very early universe. It may offer
the firmest tests of new unified theories because it is the only
place where energies are high enough for the distinctive
consequences of these theories to be manifested. When
astronomers are trying to understand cosmic phenomena,
they normally utilize discoveries made by physicists in the
lab. Perhaps they can now return the compliment by dis-
covering some fundamentally new physics. There are already
other instances of this - for instance, neutron stars extend our
knowledge of dense matter and strong gravity. But most
extreme of all is the Big Bang itself. In the 1950s' cosmology
was outside the mainstream of physics - only a few
'eccentrics' like Gamow paid any attention to it. In contrast,
cosmological issues now engage the interest of many leading
mainstream theoretical physicists. And that surely gives us
grounds for optimism.
Microscopic 'vibrations', imprinted when our universe was
smaller than a golfball, inflate so much that they now stretch
across the universe, constituting the ripples that develop into
galaxies and clusters of galaxies. Theorists still haven't shown
whether inflationary models can 'naturally' account for Q =
characterizing the amplitude of these ripples; it depends
on some physics that is still anything but 'battle-tested'. But
we can learn something about the details (and rule out some
options) because specific variants of inflation make distinc-
tive predictions. Measurements with the MAP and Planck-
Surveyor spacecraft, and surveys of how galaxies are clus-
tered, will offer clues about the inflationary phase, and teach
us things about 'grand unified' physics that can't be directly
inferred from experiments at 'ordinary' energy levels.
Along with the fluctuations that develop into galaxies and
128 JUST SIX NUMBERS

clusters, the inflation is thought to generate 'gravitational

waves' - oscillations in the fabric of space itself, criss-
crossing the universe at the speed of light. Objects encoun-
tered by such waves feel a gravitational force that pulls them
first one way and then the other; they 'shake' slightly as a
result. The effect is minuscule and its detection in reality
poses a formidable technical challenge. The European Space
Agency's LISA project (standing for Laser Interferometric
Space Array) is planned to deploy a set of spacecraft in orbits
around the Sun, separated by several million kilometres. The
distances between them would be monitored by laser beams
to a precision of a millionth of a metre.
Even LISA may not prove sensitive enough to 'feel' these
primordial vibrations. It is therefore a comfort to its designers
that other signals should be easier to detect. An intense burst
of gravitational waves would, for instance, be generated
whenever two black holes collided and coalesced. We expect
such events to occur from time to time. Most galaxies harbour
a central hole as massive as millions of stars. Pairs of galaxies
often collide and merge (we see many such events in
progress); whenever this happens, the holes in the centres of
the two participating galaxies spiral together.
We can therefore look forward soon to empirical probes of
the inflation era. Even if we don't know the appropriate
physics, we can calculate the quantitative consequences of
specific assumptions of the theory (the value of Q the
gravitational waves, etc). We can then compare these with
the observations, and thereby at least constrain the possibil-
ities.

O T H E R RELICS
..........*..*...*********
Any 'fossils' of that ultra-early era would be important as
missing links between the cosmos and the microworld. One
interesting possibility (which loomed large in Guth's mind
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT 1 1 1 129

when he was developing his theory) is that magnetic mono-

poles might have survived from the early universe. Faraday
and Maxwell showed the intimate relation between electri-
city and magnetism, but there was (as they well realized) one
key difference between these two forces: positive and
negative electric charges exist, but 'north' and 'south' mag-
netic poles don't seem to come separately. Magnets are
dipoles (with two poles) rather than monopoles (with one);
and if we chop up a dipole we never get two monopoles,
merely smaller dipoles. Despite many ingenious searches,
nobody has ever 'caught' a monopole.
Modern theories suggest that monopoles could exist, but
they may be immensely heavy (a million billion times heavier
than a proton). Because of the high mass, it would need an
immense concentration of energy to make them - the kind of
energies that prevailed in the very early universe but not
thereafter. There are very few monopoles in our present
universe - magnetic fields pervade interstellar space, and
these would be 'shorted out' if there were a population of
monopoles. Guth was puzzled by the absence of monopoles
because it seemed that they would unavoidably have been
produced in the early universe - indeed, his best guess was
that their total collective mass would amount to millions of
times more dark matter than there actually is. An important
bonus of inflation (if it occurred after the monopoles formed)
is that it would dilute the putative monopoles, and thereby
account for their apparent absence today.
Monopoles are a kind of 'knot' in space - in the jargon of the
subject, they are 'topological defects'. Even more interesting
are defects in the form of lines rather than points - regions of
space that get knotted into tubes far thinner than an atom.
They would either make closed loops, like elastic bands,
flailing around at nearly the speed of light, or else stretch right
across the universe. Some cosmologists have speculated that
these defects in space could be the seeds for cosmic structure
- in effect, that they contribute to Q. This idea attracted
interest in the early 1990s, but turned out to be incompatible
130 JUST SIX NUMBERS

with the details of the galaxy clustering that was subsequently

mapped out. But these loops could still exist, and they are so
extraordinary in their properties (thinner than an atom, but so
heavy that each kilometre could weigh as much as the Earth)
that astronomers should make every effort to find one.
Miniature black holes are another interesting possibility. A
hole the size of a single atom would be as massive as a
mountain. As we've seen in Chapter 3, this is a direct result of
?V being so large: gravity is so feeble that it can't overwhelm
other forces on the atomic scale unless the mass of ?Vatoms is
packed into the volume of one. Conceivably the ultra-early
universe generated the requisite pressures to make them.
Even though no present-day process could provide this
degree of implosion, maybe some future high-tech civilization
could do so - an especially fascinating prospect if combined
with the other speculation that, within a black hole, a new
universe may sprout and inflate into a new (possibly infinite)
space-time disconnected from ours.

FROM 'NOTHING'?
...............................
It may seem counterintuitive that an entire universe ten
billion light-years across (and which probably spreads even
further beyond our horizon) can have emerged from an
infinitesimal speck. What makes this possible is that, how-
ever much inflation has occurred, the universe's net energy
can still be zero. Everything has energy mc2, according to
Einstein's famous equation. But everything also has negative
energy because of gravity. We need energy to escape from
Earth's gravity - the burning of enough rocket fuel to reach a
speed of 11.2 kilometres per second. Down on the Earth's
surface we therefore have an energy deficit compared with an
astronaut in space. But the deficit (technically called 'gravita-
tional potential energy') due to everything in the universe
added together could amount to minus mc2. In other words,
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT 111 131

the universe makes for itself a 'gravitational pit' so deep that

everything in it has a negative gravitational energy that
exactly compensates for its rest-mass energy. So the energy
cost of inflating our universe could actually be zero.
Cosmologists sometimes claim that the universe can arise
'from nothing'. But they should watch their language, espe-
cially when addressing philosophers. We've realized ever
since Einstein that empty space can have a structure such that
it can be warped and distorted. Even if shrunk to a 'point', it is
latent with particles and forces - still a far richer construct
than the philosopher's 'nothing'. Theorists may, some day, be
able to write down fundamental equations governing physical
reality. But physics can never explain what 'breathes fire' into
the equations, and actualizes them in a real cosmos. The
fundamental question of 'Why is there something rather than
nothing?' remains the province of philosophers. And even
they may be wiser to respond, with Ludwig Wittgenstein, that
'whereof one cannot speak, one must be silent'.

B E Y O N D O U R H O R I Z O N TO T H E M U L T I V E R S E
..........................................*......*......,.......................
The long-range forecasts sketched in Chapter 7 were actually
based on an assumption that we can't test, namely that the
parts of the universe beyond our present horizon resemble
those we see. If you were in the middle of an ocean, you
wouldn't expect land to lie immediately over the horizon; but
you'd know that the ocean wasn't unending and would
eventually be bounded by a continent. Likewise, we may be
mistaken in thinking that our universe extends uniformly
without limit. We could perhaps be living in a low-density
bubble, big enough that its edge lies far beyond our present
horizon, yet surrounded by a still larger region that will
eventually collapse on top of us. If so, our remote descendants
would revise the 'forecast' of perpetual expansion when
the higher-density material loomed within their horizon. A
132 JUST SIX NUMBERS

drastic change only just beyond our horizon would be

unlikely; on the other hand, we have no warrant to extra-
polate all the way to infinity.
The most important implication of inflation is that it
grandly and dramatically enlarges our perspective on the
universe. To explain the universe that we see, there must have
been enough inflation to account for the 1 0 ' ~atoms within
range of our telescopes. But that's just a minimum. It may take
a long time to stop the inflation once it has started (theorists
refer to this as the problem of the 'graceful exit' from
inflation). Indeed, most versions of the theory suggest that
the number of 'doublings' should be far more than is needed
to account for our observable universe. In Chapter 1, we
imagined a succession of views of our universe, each taken
ten times further away than the last. Twenty-five frames took
us to the limit of our present vision, starting from the
everyday human scale. This limit is set, essentially, by how
far light has been able to travel in the ten billion years or so
since the first galaxies formed. But inflation theorists envisage
a universe so much larger that it would take millions of
frames, each a leap by a factor of ten, to reach any 'edge'. This
stupendous expanse of space is (to me at least) impossible to
grasp. The leap in scale from the microworld to our horizon is
as nothing compared with the leap beyond that to the real
limit of our universe. Though not idinite, our domain of
space and time extends far beyond what we can see. The time
before light reaches us from the 'edge' is then a number of
years written not just within ten zeros, nor even with a
hundred, but with millions.
But this isn't all. Even this colossal universe, whose extent
requires a million-digit number to express it, may not be
'everything there is'. It is the outcome of one episode of
inflation; but that episode - that Big Bang - may itself just be
one event in an infinite ensemble. Indeed, this is a natural
consequence of the 'eternal inflation' espoused especially by
the Russian cosmologist Andrei Linde. According to this
scenario, which requires specific (though still speculative)
 OUR COSMIC HABITAT 111 133

assumptions about the physics at extreme densities, the

cosmos may have had an infinite past. Patches where inflation
doesn't end always grow fast enough to provide the seeds for
other Big Bangs. There are variants on these speculations, in
which an episode of inflation could be triggered inside a black
hole, creating new domains of space and time disjoint from
our own.
At this point, let me add a semantic note about the
definition of 'universe'. The proper definition of 'universe'
is, of course, 'everything there is'. I am arguing in this chapter
that the entity traditionally called 'the universe' - what
astronomers study, or the aftermath of our Big Bang - may be
just one of a whole ensemble, each one maybe starting with its
own Big Bang. Pedants might prefer to redefine the whole
ensemble as 'the universe'. But I think it is less confusing to
leave the term 'universe' for what it has traditionally con-
noted, even though this then demands a new word, the
'multiverse', for the entire ensemble of 'universes' - a concept
to which I'll return in Chapter 11.
 C H A P T E R 10
............................................................................................
THREE D I M E N S I O N S ( A N D MORE)

The Earth's orbit is the measure of all things; circumscribe

around it a dodecahedron and the circle containing this will be
Mars; circumscribe around Mars a tetrahedron, and a circle
containing this will be Jupiter; circumscribe around Jupiter a
cube, and the circle containing this will be Saturn. Now
inscribe within the Earth an icosahedron, and the circle
contained in it will be Venus; inscribe within Venus an
octahedron, and the circle contained in it will be Mercury. You
now have the reason for the number of the planets.
Johannes Kepler

WHY =3 I S SPECIAL
.......................................
Our space has three dimensions. There are points (zero
dimensions), lines (one dimension), surfaces (two dimen-
sions) and solid objects (three dimensions). But there the
sequence stops, even though mathematically we can imagine
a kind of space that has more. What is special about the
number three? From classical times, geometers have noted
interesting features of different dimensions. For example, in
two dimensions we can draw a regular polygon with any
number of equal sides (an equilateral triangle, a square, a
pentagon, a hexagon, etc). But in three dimensions there are
just the five Platonic 'regular solids', in which all sides and all
 THREE DIMENSIONS (AND MORE) 135

angles are equal. In four dimensions there are six such objects,
and in all higher dimensions there are just three.
One consequence of a three-dimensional world is that
forces like gravity and electricity obey an inverse-square law,
such that the force from a mass or charge is four times weaker
if you go twice as far away. Michael Faraday, in his
pioneering studies of electricity, had a graphic (and essen-
tially correct) way to understand this. He envisaged 'lines of
force' sprouting from every charge or mass, the strength of the
force depending on how concentrated the lines are. At a
distance r, the lines are spread out over an area proportional
to r2;at larger distances, the force is consequently diluted, its
strength depending inversely on r2. However, the area of a
four-dimensional 'sphere' would vary in proportion to r - it
would be eight, not just four, times larger if r doubled in
value. Faraday's argument would then imply an inverse-cube
law.
As Newton realized, the trajectories of planets are con-
trolled by a balance between the effects of gravity, tending to
pull them inward, and the centrifugal effect of their motion.
Orbits in our Solar System are stable, in the sense that a slight
change in a planet's speed would only nudge its orbit slightly.
But this stability would be lost if gravity followed an inverse-
cube (or steeper) law rather than one based on inverse
squares. An orbiting planet that was slowed down - even
slightly - would then plunge ever-faster into the Sun, rather
than merely shift into a slightly smaller orbit, because an
inverse-cube force strengthens so steeply towards the centre;
conversely, an orbiting planet that was slightly speeded up
would quickly spiral outwards into darkness.
The eighteenth-century English theologian William Paley is
famous for his argument that the apparent design in our
universe implies a Designer, just as a watch implies a watch-
maker. Paley had been well-enough trained in mathematics at
Cambridge to appreciate this arcane feature of the inverse-
square law, and included it in his armoury of argument for a
benign Creator. Most of his other 'evidences of design' came
136 JUST SIX NUMBERS

from biology and have since been discounted, even by

theologians, in the post-Darwinian era. The impressive
adaptation of the eye, the hand and so forth, are the outcome
of natural selection, and of symbiosis between living organ-
isms and their environment. Paley's argument that the
inverse-square law is especially benign now seems one of
his more robust ones: there is no scope for natural selection of
a favoured law of force, and nothing could react back on the
universe to change it. Paley was writing more than a century
before atoms were realized to consist of electrons orbiting a
positively charged nucleus; otherwise, he could have bol-
stered his case by noting that, for similar reasons, atoms
would be impossible in a universe ruled by an inverse-cube
law because there would be no stable orbits for electrons.
There is therefore a problem with more than three spatial
dimensions. Could we then live in a world where there were
less than three? The best argument here is a very simple one:
there are inherent limitations on complex structures in 'flat-
land' (or, indeed, on any two-dimensional surface). It is
impossible to have a complicated network without the wires
crossing; nor can an object have a channel through it (a
digestive tract, for instance) without dividing into two. And
the scope is still more constricted in a one-dimensional
'lineland'.
These are just the most obvious reasons - and mathemati-
cians have discovered others - as to why we shouldn't be
surprised that we find ourselves living in three-dimensional
space.

TIME AND I T S ARROW

..............
.........................

Time is, of course, a fourth dimension that we experience. To

locate an event, we need four numbers: three spatial co-
ordinates to describe where it happened, and a fourth to tell
us when. As an anonymous graffiti-writer put it: 'Time is
 THREE DIMENSIONS (AND MORE) 137

nature's way of stopping things happening all at once'. Events

are, as it were, strung out along paths whose milestones are
the ticks of clocks. But time is different from the other three
dimensions insofar as we seem to be dragged only one way in
it ('forward'); in the other three, we can move in either
direction (East or West, North or South, up or down). Our
universe is thus best described as (3 + 1)-dimensional.
Einstein taught us that space and time are linked, and that
the rate at which time passes is 'elastic', being dependent on
how a timekeeper is moving, and whether or not that time-
keeper is near to a large mass. But Einstein's ideas retain a
distinction between time and space - between what's out
there in space and what lies in the past or future.
An 'arrow of time' points insistently from the past towards
the future. A film of everyday events looks grotesquely
different when run backwards. Cause and effect are reversed;
broken bits of glass, and drops of liquid, seem to rush
purposefully together to assemble into a glassful of wine;
steam converging on a kettle condenses into water. In Martin
Amis's ironic time-reversed novel Time's ~ r r o w lNew York
taxi cabs 'pay you up front, no questions asked . . . no wonder
we stand there, for hours on end, waving goodbye, or saluting
- saluting this fine service'.
The asymmetry between past and future is so ingrained in
our experience that few, except for some philosophical
physicists, pause to ponder the conundrums it poses. It is
perplexing because no such asymmetry is built into the basic
laws governing the microworld. The world changes irrever-
sibly, even though the underlying laws are indifferent
between past and future. A film showing a single collision
between two snooker balls would look more or less the same
whether it was run backwards or forwards, but the whole
pattern of collisions after play begins plainly displays an
arrow of time. Likewise, our world seems to have been set up
in a special way.
We are 'trapped' in time; but we could achieve clearer
insights from an imaginary perspective that is 'outside time' -
138 JUST SIX NUMBERS

like the creatures in Kurt Vonnegut's Sirens of Titan, who

perceive people as 'great millipedes with babies' legs at one
end and old people's legs at the other'. Our universe would
then appear as a static four-dimensional entity (the 'block
universe'); the 'world lines' of everyday objects would then be
more disordered at one end (what we call the future) than at
the other end (what we call the past). But the hard thing to
explain is any 'ordered' state at all. If one end of a long piece
of string is woven into a remarkable pattern, we are equally
surprised, whether it is the left-hand or right-hand end.
Likewise, in a 'block universe', where the future seems to
exist on the same footing as the past, it is no more (and no
less) puzzling to find order at the start than at the finish.
When we say the universe is expanding we are of course
presupposing an arrow of time, and that we can order the
frames in a movie (or the three-dimensional slices in our
'block universe') so that the universe is more dispersed at
times we designate as 'later'.
The asymmetry in time may be linked to the expansion of
the universe. Indeed, I have described in Chapter 8 how,
during the expansion, gravity enhances any initial density
contrasts, allowing structure to emerge from a fireball that
started off almost featureless. In the early stages, this
asymmetry wouldn't show up in any local measurement,
because the density would at that time be so high that
microscopic processes - collisions between particles, the
emission and absorption of photons, etc - would occur very
fast compared with the expansion rate. Everything would, at
every instant, be in equilibrium. The material would retain no
'memory' of whether it had previously been denser or less
dense, and would bear no imprint of the direction of time. But
when the universe is more dilute, these reactions get slower,
and the expansion then makes a crucial difference.
For example, if our universe had remained at a temperature
of a billion degrees for a long time, or if nuclear reactions had
happened faster, all the atoms would have been processed
into iron. Fortunately, the expansion was fast enough to
 THREE DIMENSIONS (AND MORE) (39

quench nuclear reactions before they could do more than

convert twenty-three per cent of the hydrogen into helium.
This exemplifies how cosmic expansion allows departures
from equilibrium, so that what happens is not the same as
would have been in a contracting universe.
As Sakharov first pointed out, our very existence depends
on an irreversible effect that established an excess of matter
over antimatter at a still earlier stage. Had that not occurred,
all the matter would have been annihilated with an equal
amount of antimatter, leaving a universe containing no atoms
at all. There would then have been no stars, still less any of
the chemistry that has allowed complex structures to emerge.
Time still poses mysteries on which there is absolutely no
consensus. The physicist Julian Barbour conducted an in-
formal poll among experts on the question 'Do you believe
time is a truly basic concept . . . [or can it] be derived from
more primitive notions (rather as, for instance, an object's
temperature derives from the agitated motions of its consist-
ent atoms)?' Responses were quite evenly divided, with a
slight majority favouring the view that time would eventually
be interpreted in terms of something deeper.

W R A P P E D - U P D I M E N S I O N S ON L A R G E SCALES?
..................................................................................
Space and time certainly have a complicated structure. We
know that space is punctured by black holes - millions within
our galaxy, even bigger ones in the centres of other galaxies -
in which time and space are intertwined. But these complica-
tions are restricted to regions that are 'local' in a cosmological
perspective. The near-uniformity of our universe on scales
larger than superclusters suggests that the geometry of space
is smooth and simple on the scale of our present horizon. So
also does the fact that the background microwave radiation
has almost the same temperature over the whole sky.
Mathematically inclined cosmologists have nonetheless
140 JUST SIX NUMBERS

wondered whether this simplicity could be an illusion:

perhaps we actually see the same patch over and over again,
as in a hall of mirrors or a kaleidoscope - space being 'rolled
up' or having some kind of cellular structure. If we were
indeed in this strange kind of universe, the cells must be at
least a few per cent of our horizon distance (in other words,
more than a few hundred million light-years across): we know
this because, if the cells were smaller, we would see
distinctive structures like the Virgo cluster of galaxies
repeating themselves. A stronger constraint has now come
from measurements of small non-uniformities in the micro-
wave background temperature over the sky. There is no
repetitive pattern in these non-uniformities, and so we can
now rule out any cell size much smaller than our horizon.
Beyond the horizon set by the finite speed of light,
observations tell us little. Space could be wrapped in a
complicated way on scales far exceeding ten billion light-
years. There could even be changes in the number of
dimensions. But we shall never have more than indirect
intimations of what happens beyond the range of any
telescope.
What about ultra-small scales? Here, our simple concepts
certainly break down. Indeed, we may need to grapple with
very complicated ideas, involving extra dimensions, in order
properly to understand the particles, the forces, and our
cosmic numbers.

T H E MICROSTRUCTURE O F SPACE A N D TIME:

Q U A N T U M GRAVITY
.................................................................................
We have had a century to get used to the idea that ordinary
materials - solids, liquids and gases - have a discrete atomic
or molecular structure. Could there even be graininess in
space and time themselves? Space seems a smooth contin-
uum, but that is only because our experience, and even our
 THREE DIMENSIONS (AND MORE) 141

most sophisticated experiments, are too 'coarse' to probe the

very fine scale on which this structure would be manifest.
We don't know the detailed microstructure of space and
time, but very general arguments tell us that it can't be
chopped up into arbitrarily small pieces. Fine-scale detail
can only be probed by radiation with wavelengths still shorter
than that scale. For example, a building doesn't obstruct radio
waves with wavelengths of many metres, but it casts sharp
shadows in sunlight. Light consists of waves a millionth of a
metre long, and nothing smaller than that can be imaged with
an ordinary optical microscope: to probe sharper detail
requires still shorter wavelengths (or else some other techni-
que, such as an electron microscope). But, according to the
quantum theory, shorter wavelengths come in more energetic
quanta, or 'packets', of energy.
The basic quantum of energy is measured by Planck's
constant (a number named after the great physicist Max
Planck, who pioneered the idea of quantization a century
ago). Up to a point, we can probe ever-finer detail by using
more and more energetic quanta, associated with ever-shorter
wavelengths. But there is a limit. This limit arises when the
requisite quanta are such extreme concentrations of energy
that they collapse into black holes. This happens at the
'Planck length', which is about 10" times smaller than a
proton; quanta with this tiny wavelength each carry as much
energy as the rest-mass of 10" protons. Light takes about
seconds to traverse this distance, and this 'Planck time'
is the shortest time interval that can ever be measured. So
even space and time are subject to quantum effects. However,
because gravity is so weak, these effects come in on a far
smaller scale than in ordinary atoms, when the controlling
forces are electrical. (This is a consequence of the vastness of
our first cosmic number, ?V.)
Some theorists are more willing to speculate than others.
But even the boldest acknowledge the 'Planck scales' as an
ultimate barrier. We cannot measure distances smaller than
the Planck length; we cannot distinguish two events (or
142 JUST SIX NUMBERS

decide which came first) when the time interval between

them is less than the Planck time. These scales are smaller
than atoms by just as much as atoms are smaller than stars.
There is no prospect of any direct measurements in this
domain: it would require particles with energies a million
billion times higher than can be produced in the laboratory.
The two great 'pillars' of twentieth-century science are
quantum mechanics, crucial in the microworld, and Ein-
stein's theory of gravity, which does not incorporate quantum
concepts. But we have no single framework that reconciles
and unifies them. This lack doesn't impede the progress of
terrestrial science, nor indeed the advance of astronomy,
because most phenomena involve either quantum effects or
gravity, but not both. Gravity is negligible, by our huge
number ?V, in the microworld of atoms or molecules, where
quantum effects are crucial; conversely, quantum uncertainty
can be ignored in the celestial realm of planets, stars and
galaxies, where gravity holds sway. But right back at the
beginning, quantum vibrations could shake the whole uni-
verse. Conversely, gravity could be important on the scale of a
single quantum. This happens at 10- 43 seconds, the Planck
time. To understand the first instants after the Big Bang, or the
space and time near the 'singularity' inside black holes, we
need a unification of quantum theory and gravity.
Ordinary intuition breaks down at speeds approaching that
of light, and near black holes. And it breaks down, too, at the
extreme conditions of the very early universe, and on micro-
scales close to the Planck length. We must then jettison
cherished commonsense notions of space and time: black
holes may be appearing and disappearing; space-time on this
tiny scale may have a chaotic foam-like structure, with no
well-defined arrow of time. The fluctuations may spawn new
domains that evolve into separate universes. Space may have
a kind of lattice structure, or be knotted rather like chain-mail.
Time may become like space, so that in a sense there is no
beginning of time.
The only other arena for quantum gravity is the central
 THREE D I M E N S I O N S ( A N D MORE) 143

singularity within black holes, shrouded within the horizon.

A theory that has no manifest consequences except in such
exotic and inaccessible domains is hard to check. To be taken
seriously, it must either be rigidly embedded in some all-
embracing theory that can be tested in many other ways or
else it must be perceived to have a unique inevitability about
it.
Several approaches are being followed, but there is no
consensus yet about which is the right one. (Stephen
Hawking now bets 'evens' that a unified theory will come
within twenty years, although he admits he recently had to
pay up after losing a similar bet that he made twenty years
earlier!) The most ambitious and encouraging approach
seems to be superstring theory, which leapfrogs directly to a
unified theory of all the forces, and yields quantum gravity
almost as a bonus.

SUPERSTRINGS
..........................
Superstring theory can, its proponents claim, incorporate the
three forces that govern the microworld - electromagnetism,
the nuclear force, and the 'weak' force - as well as accounting
for the elementary particles (quarks, gluons, etc). The ex-
istence of gravity is actually an essential ingredient of the
theory rather than an extra complication. Its key idea is that
the fundamental entities in our universe are not points but
tiny string loops, and that the various subnuclear particles are
different modes of vibration - different harmonics - of these
strings. The strings have the scale of the Planck length; in
other words, they are many factors of ten smaller than we can
actually probe. Moreover, these strings are vibrating not in
our ordinary (3 + 1)-dimensionalspace, but in a space of ten
dimensions.
The idea of extra dimensions is not a new one. Back in the
1920s Theodor Kaluza and Oskar Klein attempted to extend
144 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Einstein's theory of space and time to include electrical

forces. They tried to envisage electric fields, and the motions
of charged particles by, as it were, attaching extra structure to
each point in our ordinary space. The extra dimension was
'wound up' on a tiny scale, and didn't manifest itself to us,
rather as a sheet of paper looks like a one-dimensional line
when rolled very tightly, even though it is actually a two-
dimensional surface. The Kaluza-Klein theory ran into
difficulties, but the concept of extra dimensions has, more
recently, had a dramatic renaissance. In superstring theory,
each 'point' in our ordinary space is a complicated geo-
metrical structure in six dimensions, wrapped up on the
scale of the Planck length.
All physical theories involve equations and formulae that
render the technicalities (though not, fortunately, the key
ideas) opaque to the non-specialist. But, generally, the
mathematics has already been worked out and can be taken
'off the shelf by the physicists. For instance, the geometrical
concepts that Einstein used in his theory of 'curved space-
time' had all been developed in the nineteenth century; so
also was the mathematical language that was deployed to
describe the quantum world. But superstrings pose questions
that still baffle mathematicians. For instance, is there any
particular reason why a universe should end up with four
'expanded' dimensions (time, plus three dimensions of
space), rather than some different number? The nature of our
world, and the forces governing it, would depend on exactly
how the extra dimensions 'wrapped up'. How does this come
about, and are there a lot of different ways in which it could
happen?
Superstring theories first aroused enthusiasm in the 1980s
(even though the ideas go back to earlier decades), and they
have absorbed the effort since then of whole cohorts of
brilliant mathematical physicists. Initial over-exuberance
was succeeded by a period of discouragement, because of
the theory's bewildering complexity. But, since 1995, super-
strings have had a 'second wind'. It has been realized that the
 THREE DIMENSIONS ( A N D MORE) 145

extra dimensions can wrap up into just five distinct classes of

six-dimensional space; at a still deeper mathematical level,
these may be separate but related structures embedded in an
eleven-dimensional space. Furthermore the concept of strings
(one-dimensional entities) can be broadened to include two-
dimensional surfaces (membranes); indeed, in ten-dimen-
sional space there can be higher dimensional surfaces: in
other words, if a two-dimensional surface is called a two-
brane, there can also be three-branes, and so on. There is still,
however, an unbridged gap between the intricate complexity
of ten-dimensional string theory and any phenomena that we
can observe or measure.
There are earlier precedents for theories being taken very
seriously even without direct empirical support, particularly
in cases where they seem to have a unique 'elegance' or
'rightness' - a resounding ring of truth that compels assent.
Many physicists in the 1920s, for example, were receptive to
Einstein's theory of general relativity because of its immense
conceptual appeal. It is now confirmed by precise observa-
tions, but in the early days the evidence was sparse. Einstein
was himself more impressed by his theory's elegance than by
any experiments. Likewise, in the present era Edward Witten,
the currently acknowledged intellectual leader of mathema-
tical physics, has said that 'good wrong ideas are extremely
scarce, and good wrong ideas that even remotely rival the
majesty of string theory have never been seen'.
Nonetheless, there are specific non-aesthetic reasons for
being optimistic about superstrings. The first is that Einstein's
theory of general relativity, which interprets gravity as
curvature in four-dimensional space-time, is inescapably
built into superstring theory. The long-sought synthesis
between gravity and the quantum principle should thus
naturally emerge.
And already the theory has offered a deeper understanding
of black holes. The story here dates back to the early 1970s.
Jacob Bekenstein, an Israeli physicist working at Princeton
University, was pondering the consequences of the then-
144 JUST SIX NUMBERS

recent discovery that black holes were standardized objects

(as mentioned already in Chapter 3). This implied that they
lost all memory of how they were formed. There appeared to
be immense numbers of ways in which a black hole could be
built up - rocks, planets, gas or even spaceships could in
principle fall into it - but all trace of this history was
seemingly erased. Bekenstein noted that this was like the
'entropy increase' that occurs when two gases mix: many
possible initial states lead to indistinguishable final states. A
loss of information corresponds to an increase of entropy, and
Bekenstein conjectured that a black hole might have an
entropy that was a measure of the number of different ways
in which it could have formed. If Bekenstein were right, black
holes would also have a temperature, and his idea was put on
a much firmer footing when Hawking calculated that black
holes were not absolutely black, but would actually emit
radiation. (The emission is far too slight to be measurable in
the black holes that astronomers have discovered, but could
be important if the atom-sized 'miniholes' described in
Chapter 3 are actually found to exist).
Superstring theories, which describe the structure of space
on the Planck scale, offered a new insight. The US theorist
Andrew Strominger showed in 1996 how black holes (albeit
of a special kind) could be imagined as 'built up' from string-
scale elements, and showed how to calculate the number of
'rearrangements' of these tiny building blocks that would lead
to the same hole. It agreed precisely with the value of the
entropy calculated by Bekenstein and Hawking. This is not, of
course, an empirical argument; but it enhances our confi-
dence in the theory by corroborating a calculation based on
more traditional physics, and it deepens our insight into a
mysterious feature of black holes.
Another hope - although this is at present more controver-
sial and less firmly based - is that superstrings may offer new
insights into the concepts of the quantum. Richard Feynman
said that 'nobody really understands quantum mechanics'. It
works marvellously; most scientists apply it almost unthink-
 THREE DIMENSIONS (AND MORE) 147

ingly; but it has its 'spooky' aspects, which many thinkers,

from Einstein onwards, have found hard to stomach; and it's
hard to believe that we've already attained the optimum
perspective on it.
Even if we can't directly probe the Planck scale, some
features of the physical world that we do observe - for
instance, the contingency that there are three basic forces in
the microworld, particular types of particle, and so forth -
may 'pop out' of superstring theory, just as Einstein's theory
of gravity seems to. We would certainly gain confidence in the
entire mathematical construct if this happened. Superstring
theory may, as discussed in the next chapter, offer an over-
arching theory of the multiverse.
 CHAPTER I I
............................................................................................
COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE OR -
MULTIVERSE?

On religion I tend towards deism but consider its proof largely a

problem in astrophysics. The existence of a cosmological God
who created the universe (as envisaged by deism) is possible,
and may eventually be settled, perhaps by forms of material
evidence not yet imagined.
E. 0.Wilson, Consilence

W H A T DOES T H E FINE T U N I N G MEAN?

...................................................................
In our universe, intricate complexity has unfolded from
simple laws. But it's not guaranteed that simple laws permit
complex consequences; indeed, we've seen that different
choices of our six numbers would yield a boring or sterile
universe. Similarly, mathematical formulae can have very
rich implications, but generally they don't. The Mandelbrot
set, for instance, with its infinite depth of intricate structure,
is encoded by a short algorithm (see Figure 11.1).But other
algorithms, superficially similar, yield very dull patterns.
There are various ways of reacting to the apparent fine
tuning of our six numbers. One hard-headed response is that
we couldn't exist if these numbers weren't adjusted in the
appropriate 'special' way: we manifestly are here, so there's
nothing to be surprised about. Many scientists take this line,
but it certainly leaves me unsatisfied. I'm impressed by a
 COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - OR MULTIVERSE! 149

FIGURE I I .I
The Mandelbrot set. This infinitely complex pattern, which contains layer
upon layer of intricate structure, is encoded by a short and simple algorithm.
But many similar-seeming algorithms describe dull and featureless patterns.
Our universe is governed by laws that permit immensely varied conse-
quences.

metaphor given by the Canadian philosopher John Leslie.

Suppose you are facing a firing squad. Fifty marksmen take
aim, but they all miss. If they hadn't all missed, you wouldn't
have survived to ponder the matter. But you wouldn't just
leave it at that - you'd still be baffled, and would seek some
further reason for your good fortune.
Others adduce the 'tuning' of the numbers as evidence for a
beneficent Creator, who formed the universe with the specific
intention of producing us (or, less anthropocentrically, of
permitting intricate complexities to unfold). This is in the
tradition of William Paley and other advocates of the so-
called 'argument from design' for God's existence. Variants of
150 JUST SIX NUMBERS

it are now espoused by eminent scientist-theologians such as

John Polkinghorne; he writes that the universe is 'not just
"any old world", but it's special and finely tuned for life
because it is the creation of a Creator who wills that it should
be so'.'
If one doesn't accept the 'providence' argument, there is
another perspective, which - though still conjectural - I find
compellingly attractive. It is that our Big Bang may not have
been the only one. Separate universes may have cooled down
differently, ending up governed by different laws and defined
by different numbers. This may not seem an 'economical'
hypothesis - indeed, nothing might seem more extravagant
than invoking multiple universes - but it is a natural
deduction from some (albeit speculative) theories, and opens
up a new vision of our universe as just one 'atom' selected
from an infinite multiverse.

T H E MULTIVERSE
..............................
Some people may be inclined to dismiss such concepts as
'metaphysics' (a damning put-down from a physicist's view-
point). But I think the multiverse genuinely lies within the
province of science, even though it is plainly still no more
than a tentative hypothesis. This is because we can already
map out what questions must be addressed in order to put it
on a more credible footing; more importantly (since any good
scientific theory must be vulnerable to being refuted), we can
envisage some developments that might rule out the concept.
The prime stumbling-block is, of course, our perplexity
about the extreme physics that applied in the initial instants
after the Big Bang. There are strengthening reasons to take
'inflation' seriously as an explanation for our expanding
universe: the theory's firmest and most generic prediction,
that the universe should be 'flat', is seemingly borne out by
the latest data (albeit not in the simplest form: three
 COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - OR MULTIVERSE! 15 1

ingredients - atoms, dark matter, and the vacuum energy h -

contribute to the 'flatness'). The actual details of inflation
depend on the physical laws that prevailed in the first
l ~ - ~ ~ s e c o nwhen
d s , conditions were so extreme as to be far
beyond the range of direct experiment. But there are two ways
we can, realistically, hope to pin down what those conditions
were. Firstly, the ultra-early universe may have left conspic-
uous 'fossils' in our present-day universe. For example,
clusters and superclusters of galaxies were 'seeded' by
microscopic fluctuations that arose during inflation, and
their detailed properties, which astronomers can now study,
hold clues to the exotic physics that prevailed when these
structures were laid down. Secondly, a unified theory may
earn credibility by offering new insight into aspects of the
microworld that now seem arbitrary and mysterious - for
instance, the various types of subatomic particles (quarks,
gluons, and so forth) and how they behave. We would then
have confidence in applying the theory to the inflationary era.
Advances along these two routes may disclose to us a
convincing description of the physics of the ultra-early
universe. Computer simulations of how universes emerge
from something of microscopic size would then be just as
believable as our current calculations of how helium and
deuterium were formed in the first few minutes of the
expansion (Chapter 5) and how galaxies and clusters emerged
from small fluctuations (Chapter 8).
Linde and others have already simulated some 'virtual
multiverses', but at the time of writing this book the input
into their calculations is highly arbitrary: many speculative
options seem open, and we have no way of deciding among
them. These studies of 'eternal inflation' (described in
Chapter 9) already show us that some sets of assumptions,
consistent with everything else we know, yield many uni-
verses that sprout from separate Big Bangs into disjoint
regions of space-time. These universes would never be
directly observable, even in principle; we couldn't even
meaningfully say whether they existed 'before', 'after' or
152 JUST SIX NUMBERS

'alongside' our own. However, if the input theory that

predicted multiple universes could be 'battle-tested' by
convincingly explaining things we could observe, then we
should take the other (unobservable) universes seriously, just
as we give credence to what our current theories predict about
quarks inside atoms, or the regions shrouded inside black
holes.
If there are indeed many universes, the next question that
arises is: How much variety do they display? The answer
again depends on the character of the physical laws at a
deeper and more unified level than we yet understand.
Perhaps some 'final theory' will give unique formulae for all
of our six numbers. If it were to, then the other universes,
even if they existed, would in essence be just replicas of ours,
and the apparent 'tuning' would be no less a mystery than if
our single universe were the whole of reality. We'd still be
perplexed that a set of numbers imprinted in the extreme
conditions of the Big Bang happened to lie in the narrow
range that allowed such interesting consequences ten billion
years later.
But there's another possibility. The underlying laws that
apply throughout the multiverse may turn out to be more
permissive. Each universe may evolve in a distinctive way,
being characterized by a different set of numbers from those
that are so crucial moulding our own universe. We are used to
explaining contingencies here on the Earth (why there is a
particular mountain, for instance), and even features in space
(the shape of a nebula, the pattern of the galaxies), as
'accidents of history'. We can't explain such things any more
deeply, although we don't doubt that they are the outcome of
some underlying laws. By extension, the strength of the forces
and the masses of elementary particles (as well as fl,Q a n d A)
could be secondary outcomes of the final theory (maybe a
version of superstring theory) that governs the entire multi-
verse.
There is an analogy here with a 'phase transition', such as
the familiar phenomenon of water turning into ice. When the
 COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - OR MULTIVERSE? 153

inflationary era of a particular universe ended, space itself

(the 'vacuum') underwent a drastic change. The fundamental
forces - gravitational, nuclear, and electromagnetic - all 'froze
out' as the temperature dropped, fixing the values of ?V and E
in a manner that can be considered 'accidental', just like the
pattern of ice crystals when water freezes. The number 4,
imprinted by quantum fluctuations when a universe was of
microscopic size, may also depend on how these transitions
occur.
Some universes may manifest different numbers of dimen-
sions, depending on how many of the initial nine spatial
dimensions compactify rather than stretch. Even in three-
dimensional spaces, there may be different microphysics, and
perhaps different values of h, depending on the type of six-
dimensional space into which the other dimensions curl up.
Universes could have different values of (which fixes the
density and how long their 'cycle' lasts if they recollapse),
and Q (which measures how smooth a universe is, and so
determines what structures emerge in it). In some, gravity
could be so overwhelmed by the repulsive effect of the
'vacuum energy' (A) that no galaxies or stars can form. Or the
nuclear forces may be outside the range of {& close to 0.007)
that allows elements like carbon and oxygen to be stable, and
to be synthesized in stars: there would then be no periodic
table and no chemistry. Some universes could have been
short-lived, and so dense throughout their lives that every-
thing stayed close to equilibrium, with the same temperature
everywhere.
And some universes might just be too small and simple to
permit any internal complexity at all. I have highlighted one
basic number, ?V, that is exceedingly large - one followed by
36 zeros. Its size reflects the weakness of gravity: very large
numbers of particles have to gather together before gravity
becomes important - as it does, for instance, in stars
(gravitationally bound fusion reactors). It's a straightforward
consequence of their size that stars have lifetimes that are
enormously long, allowing time for photosynthetic and
154 JUST SIX NUMBERS

evolutionary processes to unfold on suitable planets in orbit

around them. In Chapter 3 we imagined a universe where W
wasn't as huge as but where everything else (including
our other five numbers) was unchanged. Stars and planets
could still exist, but they would be smaller and would evolve
quicker. They would not offer the stretches of time that
evolution demands. And gravity would crush anything large
enough to evolve into a complex organism.
The recipe for any 'interesting' universe must include at
least one very large number: clearly, not much could happen
in a universe that was so constricted that it contained few
particles. Every complicated object must contain a large
number of atoms; to evolve in an elaborate way, it must also
persist for a long time - many, many times longer than a single
atomic event.
But an abundance of particles, and a long stretch of time,
are not in themselves sufficient. Even a universe as large,
long-lived and stable as ours could contain just inert particles
of dark matter, either because the physics precludes ordinary
atoms from ever existing or because they all annihilate with
exactly equal numbers of antiatoms.

T H E MYSTERY OF h
..................................
These speculative ideas offer a new perspective on h, the key
number that measures the energy content of empty space. The
energy that drove inflation is presumed to have been latent in
the vacuum. This means that h in the remote past was larger
by 120 powers of ten than it could possibly be today. In this
perspective, it seems surprising that h should decay away to
be so close to zero. There are three very different resolutions
of this puzzle.
One is that the microstructure of space (maybe involving a
foam-like assemblage of tiny interlinked black holes) some-
how adjusts itself to make this so. A second idea is that the
 C O I N C I D E N C E . PROVIDENCE - O R MULTIVERSE? 155

decay is gradual, and somehow 'tracks' the density of

ordinary matter; it might then not be coincidental that the
vacuum should now contribute about the same as the
a
ordinary matter, so that is around 0.3 but the vacuum still
stores enough energy to provide the remaining 0.7 that's
needed to bring the overall density up to the critical value
required for a flat universe.
A third possibility is that there's no fundamental explana-
tion for the smallness of h in our universe, but that its 'tuning'
(like that of our other numbers) is a prerequisite for our
existence. We can think of h as neutralizing the gravity at a
particular density; this is what would happen in the static
universe that Einstein had in mind when he invented the
idea. So, as the universe expands, and the ordinary material
gets more diffuse, the density at some stage drops below a
threshold and the repulsion starts to 'win' over gravity. Our
own universe may have passed that threshold, so that galaxies
are already speeding up in their recession from us. But
imagine a universe that was 'set up' exactly like ours except
that h was much larger. Then the repulsion would take over
much earlier. If this transition had happened before galaxies
had formed, then they never would - such a universe would
be sterile.
In the multiverse, X could range over many possible values:
these could either be a set of discrete numbers (determined by
the way the extra dimensions curled up), or else a continuum
of possibilities. In most universes, h would be vastly higher
than in ours. But our universe could be typical of the subset in
which galaxies could have formed.

A KEPLERIAN ARGUMENT
.................*................*.........
The issue of the multiverse might seem arcane, even by
cosmological standards, but it affects how we weigh the
observational evidence in the current debate about and h. a
156 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Some theorists have a strong prior preference for the simplest

universe, with (contrary to the best present evidence) enough
intergalactic dark matter to make O exactly unity, thus im-
plying a degree of tuning in the early universe that was not
merely remarkable but absolutely perfect. They're uneasy
with being, say, 0.3 and even more by extra complications
like a non-zero A. As we've seen, it now looks as though a
craving for such simplicity will be disappointed.
Perhaps we can draw a parallel with debates that occurred
400 years ago. Kepler discovered that planets move in ellipses
not circles. Galileo was upset by this. He wrote 'For the
maintenance of perfect order among the parts of the Universe,
it is necessary to say that movable bodies are movable only
circularly'.2
To Galileo, circles seemed more beautiful; and they were
simpler - they are specified just by one number, the radius,
whereas an ellipse needs an extra number to define its shape
(the 'eccentricity'). Newton later showed, however, that all
elliptical orbits could be understood by a single unified
theory of gravity. Had Galileo still been alive when Principia
was published, Newton's insight would surely have joyfully
reconciled him to ellipses.
The parallel is obvious. A universe with low a, non-zero h
and so forth may seem ugly and complicated. But maybe this
is our limited vision. Our Earth traces out one ellipse among
an infinity of possibilities, its orbit being constrained only by
the requirement that it allows an environment conducive for
evolution (not getting too close to the Sun, nor too far away).
Likewise, our universe may be just one of an ensemble of all
possible universes, constrained only by the requirement that
it allows our emergence. So I'm inclined to go easy with
Ockham's razor3: a bias in favour of 'simple' cosmologies may
be as short-sighted as was Galileo's infatuation with circles.
If there were indeed an ensemble of universes, described by
different 'cosmic numbers', then we would find ourselves in
one of the small and atypical subsets where the six numbers
permitted complex evolution. The seemingly 'designed'
 COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - OR MULTIVERSE? 157

features of our universe shouldn't surprise us, any more than

we are surprised at our particular location within our
universe. We find ourselves on a planet with an atmosphere,
orbiting at a particular distance from its parent star, even
though this is really a very 'special' and atypical place. A
randomly chosen location in space would be far from any star
- indeed, it would most likely be somewhere in an inter-
galactic void millions of light-years from the nearest galaxy.
At the time of writing, the view that our six numbers are
accidents of cosmic history is no more than a 'hunch'. But it
could be firmed up by advances in our understanding of the
underlying physics. More importantly for its standing as a
genuinely scientific hypothesis, it is vulnerable to disproof:
we would need to seek a different interpretation if the
numbers turned out to be even more special than our presence
requires. Suppose, for instance, that (contrary to current
indications) h contributed less than 0.001 of the critical
density, and was thus thousands of times smaller than it
needed to be merely to ensure that cosmic repulsion didn't
inhibit galaxy formation. This would raise suspicions that it
was indeed zero for some fundamental reason. Likewise, if
the Earth's orbit had been an exact circle (even though we
could exist equally comfortably in a modestly eccentric orbit),
it could have favoured the kind of explanation that Kepler
and Galileo would have preferred, whereby the orbits of the
planets were fixed in exact mathematical ratios.
If the underlying laws determine all the key numbers
uniquely, so that no other universe is mathematically con-
sistent with those laws, then we would have to accept that the
'tuning' was a brute fact, or providence. On the other hand,
the ultimate theory might permit a multiverse whose evolu-
tion is punctuated by repeated Big Bangs; the underlying
physical laws, applying throughout the multiverse, may then
permit diversity in the individual universes.
158 JUST SIX NUMBERS

Elucidating the ultra-early universe and clarifying the con-

cept of the multiverse are challenges for the next century.
These challenges look less daunting if we look back at what
has been achieved during the twentieth century. A hundred
years ago, it was a mystery why the stars were shining; we had
no concept of anything beyond our Milky Way, which was
assumed to be a static system. In contrast, our panorama now
stretches out for ten billion light-years, and its history can be
traced back to within a fraction of a second of the 'beginning'.
Physical probes are, of course, still confined to our own
Solar System, but improvements in telescopes and sensors
allow us to study galaxies so far away that their light has been
journeying towards us for ninety per cent of the time since the
Big Bang. We have mapped, at least in outline, most of the
volume that is in principle accessible to us, though we
suspect that, beyond our horizon, our universe encompasses
a vastly larger volume from which light has not yet had time
to reach us (and perhaps never will).
We are learning how cosmic structure emerged, and how
galaxies evolved, from detailed observations - not only of
nearby galaxies but also of populations of distant galaxies that
are being seen as they were up to ten billion years ago.
This progress is possible only because of the contingency -
in principle, remarkable - that the basic physical laws are
comprehensible and apply not just on Earth but also in the
remotest galaxies, and not just now but even in the first few
seconds of our universe's expansion. Only in the first
millisecond of cosmic expansion, and deep inside black
holes, do we confront conditions where the basic physics
remains unknown.
Cosmologists are no longer starved of data. Current progress
is owed far more to observers and experimentalists than to
armchair theorists. But in future there will be armchair
'observers'. The results of galaxy surveys, detailed 'maps' of
 COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - OR MULTIVERSE? 159

the sky, etc, will be available electronically to anyone who

can access or download them. A far larger community will be
able to participate in exploring our cosmic habitat, checking
their own 'hunches', seeking new patterns, and so forth.
Observations are steadily improving, but our understand-
ing is advancing in a zigzag fashion. There is a sawtooth
advance as theories come and go, but the general gradient is
upwards. Progress requires more powerful telescopes, and
enhanced computer power that permits more realistic simula-
tions.
There are three great frontiers in science: the very big, the
very small and the very complex. Cosmology involves them
all. Within a few years, the cosmic numbers, A, fl and Q
should be as well measured as the size and shape of the Earth
have been since the eighteenth century. We may by then have
solved the problem of the 'dark matter'.
But it remains a fundamental challenge to understand the
very beginning - this must await a 'final' theory, perhaps
some variant of superstrings. Such a theory would signal the
end of an intellectual quest that started with Newton, and
continued through Maxwell, Einstein and their successors. It
would deepen our understanding of space, time, and the basic
forces, as well as elucidating the ultra-early universe and the
centres of black holes.
This goal may be unattainable. There could be no 'final'
theory; or, if there is, it could be beyond our mental powers to
grasp it. But even if this goal is reached, that would not be the
end of challenging science. As well as being a 'fundamental'
science, cosmology is also the grandest of the environmental
sciences. It aims to understand how a simple 'fireball' evolved
into the complex cosmic habitat we find around us - how,
here on Earth, and perhaps in many biospheres elsewhere,
creatures evolved that are able to reflect on how they emerged.
Richard Feynman used a nice analogy to make this point.
Imagine you'd never seen chess being played before, then by
watching a few games, you could infer the rules. Physicists,
likewise, learn the laws and transformations that govern the
160 JUST SIX NUMBERS

basic elements of nature. In chess, learning the moves is just a

trivial preliminary on the absorbing progress from novice to
grand master; by analogy, even if we knew the basic laws,
exploring how their consequences have unfolded over cosmic
history is an unending quest. Ignorance of quantum gravity,
subnuclear physics, and the like impedes our understanding
of the 'beginning'. But the difficulties of interpreting the
everyday world and the phenomena that astronomers observe
stem from their complexity.Everything may be the outcome of
processes at the subatomic level, but even if we know the
relevant equations governing the microworld, we can't, in
practice, solve them for anything more complex than a single
molecule. Moreover, even if we could, the resultant 'reduc-
tionist' explanation would not be enlightening. To bring
meaning to complex phenomena, we introduce new 'emer-
gent' concepts. (For example, the turbulence and wetness of
liquids, and the textures of solids, arise from the collective
behaviour of atoms, and can be 'reduced' to atomic physics,
but these are important concepts in their own right; so, even
more, are 'symbiosis', 'natural selection', and other biological
processes).
The chess analogy reminds us of something else. There is
no chance that our finite observable universe, even though it
extends ten billion light years around us, can 'play out' all its
potentialities. This is because any estimate of how many
different chains of events could happen quickly runs into
even vaster numbers than we've encountered so far. The
number of different chess games, even after only three moves
by each player, is about 9 million. There are far more 40-move
games than the loT8atoms within our horizon: even if all the
material in the universe were constituted into chess boards,
most possible games would never be played. And the range of
options in a board game is obviously minuscule compared to
the variety allowed in nature.
Even simple inanimate systems are generally too 'chaotic'
to be predictable: Newton was actually lucky to find, in
planetary orbits, one of the few aspects of nature that are
 COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - OR MULTIVERSE! 161

highly predictable! Any biological process involves tremen-

dously more variety - more branch points at every stage as the
complexity unfolds - than a game of chess. If there were
millions of Earth-like planets in each galaxy that all har-
boured life, each one would be distinctive. (Far beyond our
horizon, however, there could be a literally infinite expanse,
where every possible combination of circumstances could
occur - and could indeed be replicated infinitely often4.)This
perspective should caution us against scientific triumphalism
- against exaggerating how much we'll ever really understand
of nature's intricacies.
A theme of this book has been the intimate links between
the microworld and the cosmos, symbolized by the oumborus
(Figure 1.1). Our everyday world, plainly moulded by
subatomic forces, also owes its existence to our universe's
well tuned expansion rate, the processes of galaxy formation,
the forging of carbon and oxygen in ancient stars, and so forth.
A few basic physical laws set the 'rules'; our emergence from
a simple Big Bang was sensitive to six 'cosmic numbers'. Had
these numbers not been 'well tuned', the gradual unfolding of
layer upon layer of complexity would have been quenched.
Are there an infinity of other universes that are 'badly tuned',
and therefore sterile? Is our entire universe an 'oasis' in a
multiverse? Or should we seek other reasons for the provi-
dential values of our six numbers?
 NOTES
............................................................................................

I. THE COSMOS AND THE MICROWORLD

..............................................................
1 Images depicting the full range of scales in our universe, from largest
to smallest, were originally presented by Dutchman Kees Bieke in
Cosmic View: the Universe in Forty Jumps (John Day, 1957) but were
developed further, and achieved widest currency, in a film and book
entitled Powers of Ten by the office of Charles and Ray Eames, together
with Philip and Phylis Morrison. (W. H. Freeman, 1985)

2. OUR COSMIC HABITAT I: PLANETS, STARS AND LIFE

.........................................................................................
1 An alternative technique being developed is to repeatedly measure
the star's position accurately enough to trace its orbital 'wobble'.
(Whereas the Doppler technique measures motions along the line of
sight, this method detects transverse motions in the plane of the sky.)

3. THE LARGE NUMBER w:GRAVtTY I N THE COSMOS

..............................................................................
1 This is the mechanical work that must be done to remove an atom
from a sphere. It can be thought of as the 'inverse square' force, scaling
as (mass)/(radius)', multiplied by the distance through which the force
acts, which is proportional to (radius). It is also known as the 'binding
energy'. It scales as (mass)/(radius),and therefore as (mass)'13 because,
for constant densities, (radius) scales as (mass)'13.
2 The End of Time (Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1999).
3 This uncertainty about extreme conditions near the singularity
doesn't erode our confidence in the existence of black holes or in our
understanding of their external properties. No more does the mystery of
 NOTES 163

quarks reduce our confidence in the standard physics of atoms, which

depends on the behaviour of electrons in orbits on much larger scales.

4. STARS, T H E PERIODIC TABLE, A N D E

................................................................
1 Livio et al. (Nature, 340,281 1989) have computed just how sensitive
the carbon production is to changes in the nuclear physics.

5. OUR COSMIC H A B I T A T II: BEYOND O U R GALAXY

...................................................................................
1 According to Einstein's theory, the gravitational attraction depends
not on density alone but on [(density)+3(pressure)/c2].Leaving out the
second term makes a factor of two difference when the pressure of
radiation is important. However, we shall see in Chapter 7 that even in
empty space there may be some energy. If so, it will have a pressure that
is negative (i.e. like a 'tension'). The second term then cancels out the
first, and causes a major qualitative change: the expansion actually
accelerates rather than slows down. This counterintuitive result is
important in the early inflationary universe, and also at present if the
energy of empty space (lambda - see Chapter 7) is dominant.
2 There is no mixing between the Sun's centre and its outer layers, so
there would be still more helium in the core, because of the spent fuel
from the fusion that has kept it shining over its 4.5 billion year history.

6. T H E FINE-TUNED EXPANSION: DARK MATTER A N D ICZ

..........................................................................................
1 The precise value of the critical density, and indeed some of the other
densities quoted here, depend on the actual scale of the universe -
something that is only known with 10-20 per cent precision because of
the problems of determining the so-called 'Hubble constant'. These
issues merit a whole book to themselves. However, I should mention, for
the benefit of specialists, that the numbers quoted here correspond to a
Hubble constant (in the usual units) of sixty-five kilometres per second
per megaparsec.
2 A much more interesting question is whether the inverse-square law
breaks down on very small scales, or - which is more or less the same
thing - whether some extra 'fifth force' comes into play on scales below
a few metres. Speculations connected with superstring theories (see
Chapter 10) suggest that the extra spatial dimensions may conceivably
manifest themselves in this way. Here again, experimental evidence is
164 JUST SIX NUMBERS

meagre, and less exact than we would wish, because gravity is so feeble
between laboratory-sized objects.
3 Less deuterium when the density is higher at first sight seems a
perverse result, but it's actually quite natural. The higher the density,
the more often the nuclei would hit each other, and the more quickly
nuclear reactions would convert hydrogen (one proton) into helium
(two protons and two neutrons). Deuterium (one proton and one
neutron) is an intermediate product. Not much would survive if the
density were high, because the reactions would have gone so quickly
that nearly all the deuterium would have been processed into helium;
on the other hand, if the density were lower, we would expect more
'fossil' deuterium left over from the first three minutes of our universe's
existence. The dependence is quite sensitive, so any reasonably
accurate measurement of the deuterium fraction tells us the average
density of atoms in the universe.
4 The evidence actually tells us the differences between the squares of
the masses of two different species of neutrinos. An earlier version of
Kamiokande recorded eleven events due to high-energy neutrinos from
the nearby 1987 supernova, mentioned in Chapter 4; an American
experiment (in a salt mine in Ohio) recorded eight more. These numbers
pleased astrophysicists because they fitted well with what supernova
theories predicted.

7. T H E NUMBER h: IS C O S M I C E X P A N S I O N S L O W I N G OR
SPEEDING?
..........................................................................................
1 The successive 'wavecrests' in the light from any atom or molecule
are due to its vibrations, which are essentially a microscopic clock. The
wavecrests arrive slower when the source is receding and the wave-
lengths are stretched.
2 From Nature's Imagination, edited by J. Cornwell (Oxford University
Press, 1998).

8. PRIMORDIAL 'RIPPLES': T H E NUMBER Q

...................................................................
1 At first sight, this may seem contrary to the statement that Q is the
same on all scales. However, Q i s actually measured by the overdensity
multiplied by the square of the lengthscale. According to Newton's laws
of gravity, the gravitational binding energy at the surface of a sphere
depends on mass/radius. However, for spheres of different mass but the
same density, mass depends on ( r a d i ~ s )and
~ , so the binding energy
 NOTES 165

varies as (radius)*. So the density fluctuations have smaller amplitude

on larger scales.
2 One might wonder why the substructure within galaxies has been
erased, whereas individual galaxies survive within a cluster of galaxies
(which doesn't become a single 'supergalaxy'). This is because, in the
later stages of the hierarchical clustering, the gas is too hot and diffuse to
be able to condense into stars. The star formation process is 'quenched'
on scales bigger than galaxies.

9. O U R COSMIC H A B I T A T Ill: W H A T LIES B E Y O N D O U R

HORIZON?
.........................................................................................
1 In particular, the intensity measured by COBE at millimetre wave-
lengths might have been weaker than the predicted extrapolation from
what had already been reliably determined at centimetre wavelengths.
Many processes could have added extra millimetre-wave radiation - for
instance, emission from dust, or from stars at very high redshifts - and
so we would not have been fazed if it had been more intense than a black
body at these wavelengths. But it would be hard to interpret a
millimetre-wave temperature that was lower than that at centimetre
wavelengths.
2 The Inflationary Universe is published by Jonathan Cape, 1997.

10. THREE DIMENSIONS ( A N D MORE)

.......
.......................................1............1

1 Time's Arrow is published by Jonathan Cape, 1991.

I I. COINCIDENCE, PROVIDENCE - O R MULTIVERSE?

...................................................................................
1 From Quarks, Chaos and Christianity, by John Polkinghorne (SPCK
Triangle Press, 1994).
2 From Dialogues Concerning the Two Chief Systems of the World,
translated by S. Drake (Berkeley, 1953).
3 William of Ockham advanced the view which (translated from Latin)
means 'Don't multiply entities more than is absolutely necessary'.
4 As the cosmologist John Barrow has quipped: if this statement is true,
it certainly isn't original.
 INDEX
............................................................................................

Andromeda galaxy, 53,61; Bekenstein, Jacob, 145-6

collision with Milky Way Beryllium, 50
galaxy, 71, 100 Big Bang, 9, 78; conversion of
Angels and Devils (Esther), 60, 60 photons to neutrinos, 79;
Antimatter, 47, 83-6; energy cosmic repulsion in early
released on annihilation, 84; stages, 124-5; deuterium,
matter-antimatter asymmetry, 69-70, 78; 119-20; first stars,
84-6,123,139 117; helium created from
Arrow of time see Time hydrogen, 69-70,127,139;
Asteroids, 15, 18 matter-antimatter asymmetry,
Atomic structure, 5, 21, 27-8, 84-6, 139; non-uniform
43-4, 49; electrons, 5, 21, 27-8, densities, 107; primordial
47; isotopes, 44; neutrons, 44, radiation shifts into infrared,
47-50; nuclei, 5, 4 3 4 4 8 , 50; 121; 'ripples' in early stages, 56,
protons, 21,2743,43447-50; 106,107,114-15,12743,151;
strong (nuclear) interaction, 48, temperature drop, 66-7,70,107;
49,52,121,122,143 theory, 10-11,67-8,117,123,
Atoms: contribution to fl,73, see also Microwave background
78-9,122,130; created in early radiation
Big Bang, 66; created in Biological evolution, 17, 115;
supernovae explosions, 43,45; timescale, 2, 8-9, 30-1
decay rate, 86, 101; heavier Biosphere, 16, 22-3; development
elements less abundant in older of intelligence, 18-19; elements
stars, 46; minority constituent formed in supernovae, 43;
of universe, 83, 109; periodic evolution of, 10, 18-19
table, 43-5, 50; quantum effects, Black body radiation, 65
5; stellar transmutation to Black holes, 3, 35-9, 115, 139; at
heavier elements, 8-9,44-5; atomic scale (primordial), 39,
uniform throughout universe, 81, 101,130, 146, 154; at
10-11,21,42 galactic centres, 36, 38, 53;
Axions, 81 binary systems with ordinary
168 JUST SIX NUMBERS

stars, 35; collision and of light, 75-6; detected in

coalescence, 132; constituent of clusters of galaxies, 76; exotic
dark matter, 78, 81; decay rate, particles, 79-81, 82;
101; developed from superstars, gravitational pull of, 74-5, 96;
112; Einstein's hostility to, main contributor to a, 73, 79,
98-9; entropy, 146; enveloped 126; major constituent of
by surface, 37; gamma-ray universe, 83, 91, 109; neutrinos,
bursts, 35-6; in quasars, 112-13; 79-80; non-radiating, 76
radiation, 101,146; size Deuterium (heavy hydrogen), 49,
proportional to mass, 36; 82; abundance, 112,118,123;
spinning, 36, 37,112; atomic structure, 69; created in
standardized objects, 36, 150; Big Bang, 69-70, 78; detected in
temperature, 146; time dilation, distant galaxies, 78-9, 112
37 Dinosaurs, exterminated by
Bruno, Giordano, 19 asteroid impact, 15, 18
Doppler effect, 14, 15, 57, 59; gas
Carbon, 9,44-5, 46; isotopes of, orbiting black holes, 113; stars
44; transmutation to oxygen, 50 orbiting barycentre, 14
Cosmic Background Explorer
Satellite (COBE),65-6, 107-8, E (nuclear fusion efficiency),
117 47-51, 52, 81, 84, 89, 153;
Cosmic environment: microwave effects of differing values,
background, 65-7, 80, 98; 48-51,153; strength of nuclear
sensitivity to cosmic numbers, forces, 2, 125, 126
22-3, 48-51; uniformity of, Earth: age of, 40; asteroid impacts,
10-11, 21.42 15, 18; atmosphere, 16;
Cosmic numbers (W,E, a , A, Q destruction by expanding Sun,
1)), 2-4; fine tuning, 4, 22-3, 41, 71-2
48-51,86-90,114-16,124, Eddington, Arthur, 29-30
148-61, see also individual Einstein, Albert: cosmological
n urnbers constant (A), 96; E = mc2 (rest-
Cosmic rays, 80 mass energy), 34,47, 83; hostile
Cronin, James, 85 to concept of black holes, 99;
Cubic Space Division (Escher), 57, search for unification of gravity
58 and electromagnetism, 121;
special theory of relativity, 62;
I)(spatial dimensions), 3, 134-6, theory of general relativity,
143-5; inverse-cube law 31-2, 35, 36, 38, 96.98, 101,
implied by four dimensions, 112,145
135, see also Space; Space-time; Entropy, 104, 146
Superstring theories; Time
Dark matter, 70, 73-83, 93, Faraday, Michael, 120,121,129,
114-15; black holes, 78, 81, 82; 135
brown dwarfs, 77-8, 82, 105; Feynman, Richard, 22,146,159
composition, 76-83; deflection Fitch, Val, 85
 INDEX 169

Fractals, 54-5 neutron stars, 34-5; Newton's

Friedman, Jerome, 122 inverse-square law, 10, 24-5,
75,106,135; pull exerted by
Galactic and stellar spectra, red- dark matter, 74-5, 96; ratio to
shifted, 14, 1 5 , 5 7 4 , 62 atomic electric charges (?V), 2,
Galaxies: Andromeda, 53, 61; 27-8, 30-1, 89; self-gravity, 29;
black holes at centre of, 36, 38, singularities, 37, 38; strength of,
53; cannibalism, 92,112; 27, 30-1, 89, 106, 130, 142, 153;
clusters seeded by 'ripples' in tidal forces in black holes, 38;
early Big Bang, 56,114-15, 151; time dilation near large masses,
clusters and superclusters, 53, 34, 37; in virtual universes
55,75-6,106,110,122; (computer simulations), 109,
collisions, 5 3 4 , 71; dark 110,112,1134
matter, 74-5; disc shaped, 53; Guth, Alan, 124,129
distant galaxies viewed in early
evolutionary stages, 60-2, 92, Hawking, Stephen, 143,146
99, 107, 112; elliptical, 53, 54; Helium: atomic structure, 49;
evolution, 60-3, 64, 92, 110-11; produced from hydrogen in Big
gravitational lenses, 76; Local Bang, 69-70,139; product of
Group, 53, 54,100; Virgo hydrogen fusion, 41,44,46,
Cluster, 54, see also Big Bang; 47-8; transmutation to heavier
Stars; Stellar evolution elements, 47, 50; uniform
Galileo, 26-7, 160 abundance in primordial
Gamma-ray bursts, 35-6 objects, 69, 117
Gamow, George, 69.96 Hoyle, Fred, 50,67-8, 69
Gell-Mann, Murray, 124 Hubble, Edwin, 57, 65
GIashow, Sheldon, 1 2 1 Hubble Space Telescope (HST),
Gravitational lensing: brown 61, 63, 76
dwarfs revealed by, 77-8, 82; Hydrogen: atomic structure, 21,
dark matter in galactic clusters, 27-8; conversion to heavier
75-6 elements, 2,9,41,44-5, 68-9;
Gravity, 24-39,121; amplification stellar fuel, 44-5, 47-8;
of small primordial density transmutation to helium, 41;
differences, 105-6, 138; sensitivity to value of E, 49
balanced by internal pressure of
stellar cores, 25,41, 104; and The Inflationary Universe (Guth),
black holes, 34-9; effect on 124
light, 3 2 4 , 35, 37; effects on Inflationary universe theory,
animal sizes, 26-7, 30; effects of 123-33,150-1; cosmic
differing values of W ,2, 30-1, repulsion in very early Big
154; escape velocities, 34; Bang, 124-5; exponential
gravitational potential energy, expansion, 125; flat universe,
131; gravitational radiation, 126, 150-1; gravitational waves,
101; indistinguishable from 128; new inflationary episodes
accelerated motion, 38; and within black holes, 130, 133;
 size of universe, 132-3; tests of Maxwell, James Clark, 120, 121,
theory, 126-8 129
Intelligence, extraterrestial: Mayor, Michel, 14
assumed rarity of, 18-19; Microwave Anisotropy Probe
common culture, 22; (MAP), 108,127
communications based on ratios Microwave background radiation,
of physical constants, 21-3; 65-7, 80, 139; black body
methods of detection, 20; search spectrum, 65, 108,117; non-
for (SETI), 20-1 repetitive distribution, 140;
Iron, 44-6.68 non-uniform distribution, 98,
107-8, 119; residue of Big Bang,
Jupiter: composition, 46; effects of 65.98
self-gravity, 29; possibility of Milky Way, 53, 71,100
life on moons, 17-18; Sun- Multiverses, 11,23, 133, 150-61
Jupiter system rotation about
barycentre, 13-14 ?V (gravitational ratio), 2, 27-8,
30-1,39,89,130,141,142,153
Kaluza, Theodor, 143-4 Neutrinos, 48, 79, 118, 121;
Kelvin, William Thomson, 1st Kamiokande experiment, 80;
Baron Kelvin, 40 non-zero mass, 80,82, 118;
Kendall, Henry, 122 possible dark matter
Kerr, Roy, 36 component, 79-80,82; ratio to
Kirschner, Robert, 55 atoms, 79
Klein, Oscar, 143-4 Neutron stars, 34
Newton, Sir Isaac, 10, 31-2;
h (lambda), 2,100; control of inverse-square law of gravity,
expansion (cosmic repulsion), 24-5,34,42, 75,106,156
2, 100; cosrno~ogicalconstant, Nuclear fusion, 41,44, 4 6 , 4 7 4 ;
96-7; decay, 154-5; effects of efficiency (&), 47-8; rest-mass
different values, 3,99,101-2, energy, 47
155; latent energy of space
vacuum, 97-8, 130,151,153, (omega; ratio of actual to critical
154-5; non-zero value, 97-9, density of matter in universe),
101-2,114,156 73, 87, 124, 126, 153, 156;
Large Hadron Collider, 120 effects of deviation from value
Linde, Andrei, 124, 133,151 of unity, 2, 86-90, 100, 114;
LISA project (Laser exotic particles, 79-80, 83;
Interferometric Space Array), supernova cosmology project,
128 94-5
Lowell, Percival, 19-20 Ouraborus, 7-8,8,161
Oxygen, 9,17,44-6,50
Magnetic monopoles, 129
Mandelbrot set, 148, 149 Paley, William, 135-6, 149
Mars: canals, 19-20; search for Particle physics: antiparticles,
life, 17 83-4; asymmetric particle decay
 INDEX I71

(neutral kaon KO),85; of 'ripple' amplitude, 107,

electromagnetism, linked to 114-15,127; effects of deviation
weak force, 121, 122, 143; from critical value, 114-16;
electrons, 5, 21, 27-8, 47; input to computer models of
gluons, 122, 143; grand unified virtual universes, 109; measure
theories (GUT), 89, 97, 122-3; of gravity weakness in major
laws applicable throughout structures, 106
universe, 10-11,21,42, 158; Quantum 'foam', 6,142,154
neutrinos see Neutrinos; Quantum gravity, 140-3; in black
neutrons, 44, 47-50, 121; hole singularities, 142-3; in
nuclei, 43-4,48, 50, 121; early Big Bang, 142
protons, 21, 27-8,434, 47-50, Quantum theory: Planck length,
121,123; protons and 141,142,143-4; Planck time,
antiprotons, 83; quarks, 122, 141, 142; Planck's constant,
143; quarks and antiquarks, 83, 141
85; standard model, 122; strong Quasars, 39,92,110,112-13
(nuclear) interaction, 47-8, 49, Queloz, Didier, 14
52, 121,122,143; super- Quintessence, 42
symmetry, 81; weak force, 85,
121, 143, see also Atomic Radio transmissions, 20
structure; Atoms; Superstring The Realm of the Nebulae
theories (Hubble), 65
Periodic table, 43-5; effect of Relativity, general theory of, 31-2,
different values for E, 50-1 35, 36, 38, 96, 98, 101, 112, 145;
Perlmutter, Saul, 94-5 built into superstring theory,
Photons (quanta of radiation): 145, see also Einstein, Albert
density in universe, 66, 79, 85;
insignificant gravitational Sakharov, Andrei, 84-5, 139
effects, 80 Salam, Abdus, 121
Planck, Max, 141 Sato, Katsumoto, 120
Planck-Surveyor spacecraft, 108, Second Law of Thermodynamics,
127-8 104
Planck's constant, 141 SET1 Institute, 20
Planetary systems: detection, Shelton, Ian, 42
13-16; formation, 12-13; search Solar System, evolution of, 12-13,
for, 16; unstable among close- 41,454
packed stars, 115; unstable if Space: at scale of the Planck
gravity followed inverse-cube length, 143, 144-47; density of,
law, 135-6 97; latent energy of vacuum (h),
Principia (Newton), 25 97-8, 126, 151, 153, 154-5;
latent particles, 97, 131;
IQ (ratio of gravitational binding microstructure of black holes,
force to rest-mass energy), 3, 56, 97; monopoles, 129; multi-
113-14, 153; critical value, 106, dimensional, 135, 143-5, 153;
108,115-16, 118;determinant Planck length (ultimate
 granularity), 11, 39, 141, 143, mechanics, 146-7; six-
144; structure, 129-31; three dimensional space, 144-5
dimensional, 134-5, see
also Black holes; Space-time; Taylor, Richard, 122
Superstring theories; Time Telescopes, 15,107; Hubble Space
Space-time: curved by presence of Telescope, 61,63; Keck
mass, 31; new, disjoint, within Telescopes, Hawaii, 64; Very
black holes, 130, 133, 151; Large Telescope (VLT),Chile,
quantum 'foam', 6,142,154 64
Speed of light, 32,32,334,47,60, t'Hooft, Gerard, 1 2 1
62 Time: arrow of, 3,136-8;
Stanford Linear Accelerator, 122 asymmetry between past and
Starobinski, Alex, 124 future, 137-8; fourth
Stars: composition, 4 2 , 4 5 4 ; dimension, 3,136-7; Planck
internal pressures balanced by time, 141, 142
gravity, 104; protostars, 12-13; Time dilation: at speeds close to
superstars, 110, 112; speed of light, 33,62, 93, 137;
temperature increase with loss near large masses, 34, 35, 37,
of energy, 104, see also 137
Galaxies; Stellar evolution
Stellar collisions, 53-4, 100-1 Universe (cosmos): atoms as
Stellar evolution, 107, 110; age of minor constituent, 83, 91;
oldest stars, 59; Sun, 12-13, average density of atoms, 66, 70,
41-3; supernovae, 34,42-3,45, 72-3, 78,118; becomes
67; transmutation from transparent, 66,108; block
hydrogen to heavier elements, universe, viewed kom outside
44-5 time, 137-8; critical value ofa,
Strominger, Andrew, 146 86-90, 100, 126; Einstein's
Sun: evolution through red giant static state concept, 96-7;
to white dwarf, 41, 71; fuelled evolution fiom Big Bang, 107-8;
by hydrogen fusion reaction, 41, infinite past, 133; inflationary
44, 47-8, 71; rotation round universe theory, 123-33, 150-1;
barycentre, 13-14; self-gravity matter-antimatter asymmetry,
in equilibrium with hot core, 29, 84-6, 139; multiverse concept,
41; source of neutrinos, 80, see 11,23, 133, 150-61; non-fractal
also Stars; Stellar evolution; nature, 55; present average
Solar System temperature, 66; ratio of heat to
Supernovae, 34,42-3,45, 67; matter, 66; ratio of neutrinos to
Type l a , 93; use as 'standard photons, 79; ratio of photons to
candles' (supernova cosmology atoms, 66,85; 'ripples' in early
project), 93-5 universe, 106, 108, 111-12,
Superstring theories, 3, 6, 97, 127-8, 151; simplicity unlikely,
129-30,143-7,152; and black 155-6; size of, 9, 11,132-3;
holes, 146; eleven-dimensional steady-state theory, 68; through
space, 145; quantum a zoom lens, 4 4 ; uniformity of
 INDEX 173

large-scale structure, 55, 58-9, Galaxies; Inflationary universe

106,139, see also Big Bang; Dark theory
matter; Q; Universe, expanding; Uranus, planetary collision, 15
Virtual universes
Universe, expanding, 57-9,62-3, Virtual universes (computer
66-70,96,119; balance between simulations), 109-1 1, 119;
expansion energy and gravity atoms, 110; black holes and
(a),72, 126; critical density
t

quasars, 113-14; dark matter

needed to reverse expansion, dominant, 110,111;
72-3; force of cosmic repulsion gravitational aggregation,
(h), 75,9543, 100, 101, 114; 109-110; multiverses, 151; non-
increasing rate of, 91-2, 95-102, uniform density distributions,
100,101-2; rate (Hubble 110-12, 111, 113; primordial
constant) uniform in all condensations, 104-10;
directions, 89; ratio of actual superstars, 112
density to critical density(a),
73, 118, 124; recession speed Weinberg, Steven, 121
not constant, 62; recession Wheeler, John Archibald,
speed proportional to redshift, physicist, 36
57; results of indefinite Witten, Edward, 145
continuation, 100-2; zero net
energy, 130-1, see also Zweig, George, 122