Quantitative Techniques

for Management LESSON

9
WAITING MODEL (QUEUING THEORY)

CONTENTS
9.0 Aims and Objectives
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Queuing Systems
9.3 Characteristics of Queuing System
9.3.1 The Arrival Pattern
9.3.2 The Service Mechanism
9.3.3 The Queue Discipline
9.3.4 The Number of Customers allowed in the System
9.3.5 The Number of Service Channels
9.3.6 Attitude of Customers
9.4 Poisson and Exponential Distribution
9.5 Symbols and Notations
9.6 Single Server Queuing Model
9.7 Solving the Problem Using Computer with TORA
9.8 Let us Sum Up
9.9 Lesson-end Activity
9.10 Keywords
9.11 Questions for Discussion
9.12 Terminal Questions
9.13 Model Answers to Questions for Discussion
9.14 Suggested Readings

9.0 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

In this lesson we are going to talk about the queuing theory which is also known as
waiting line. These queuing theory will facilitate in solving the queue related problem of
the industry. The most important point will be taken into consideration in the designing
queue system which should balance service to customers.

9.1 INTRODUCTION
Queuing theory deals with problems that involve waiting (or queuing). It is quite common
that instances of queue occurs everyday in our daily life. Examples of queues or long
waiting lines might be
l Waiting for service in banks and at reservation counters.
272
l Waiting for a train or a bus.
l Waiting for checking out at the Supermarket. Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
l Waiting at the telephone booth or a barber's saloon.
Whenever a customer arrives at a service facility, some of them usually have to wait
before they receive the desired service. This forms a queue or waiting line and customers
feel discomfort either mentally or physically because of long waiting queue.
We infer that queues form because the service facilities are inadequate. If service facilities
are increased, then the question arises how much to increase? For example, how many
buses would be needed to avoid queues? How many reservation counters would be
needed to reduce the queue? Increase in number of buses and reservation counters
requires additional resource. At the same time, costs due to customer dissatisfaction
must also be considered.
In designing a queuing system, the system should balance service to customers (short
queue) and also the economic considerations (not too many servers). Queuing theory
explores and measures the performance in a queuing situation such as average number
of customers waiting in the queue, average waiting time of a customer and average
server utilization.

9.2 QUEUING SYSTEMS

The customers arrive at service counter (single or in groups) and are attended by one or
more servers. A customer served leaves the system after getting the service. In general,
a queuing system comprises with two components, the queue and the service facility.
The queue is where the customers are waiting to be served. The service facility is
customers being served and the individual service stations. A general queuing system
with parallel server is shown in Figure 9.1 below:

(x) Customers
S1
Customers Departure
S2 (x)
Arrival (x)
.
.
.
Sn.
(x) Customers
Departure

Queue Service Facility

Queuing System

Figure 9.1: A typical queuing system

9.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF QUEUING SYSTEM

In designing a good queuing system, it is necessary to have a good information about the
model. The characteristics listed below would provide sufficient information.
1. The arrival pattern.
2. The service mechanism.
3. The queue discipline.
4. The number of customers allowed in the system.
5. The number of service channels. 273
Quantitative Techniques 9.3.1 The Arrival Pattern
for Management
The arrival pattern describes how a customer may become a part of the queuing system.
The arrival time for any customer is unpredictable. Therefore, the arrival time and the
number of customers arriving at any specified time intervals are usually random variables.
A Poisson distribution of arrivals correspond to arrivals at random. In Poisson distribution,
successive customers arrive after intervals which independently are and exponentially
distributed. The Poisson distribution is important, as it is a suitable mathematical model
of many practical queuing systems as described by the parameter "the average arrival
rate".

9.3.2 The Service Mechanism

The service mechanism is a description of resources required for service. If there are
infinite number of servers, then there will be no queue. If the number of servers is finite,
then the customers are served according to a specific order. The time taken to serve a
particular customer is called the service time. The service time is a statistical variable
and can be studied either as the number of services completed in a given period of time
or the completion period of a service.

9.3.3 The Queue Discipline

The most common queue discipline is the "First Come First Served" (FCFS) or
"First-in, First-out" (FIFO). Situations like waiting for a haircut, ticket-booking counters
follow FCFS discipline. Other disciplines include "Last In First Out" (LIFO) where
last customer is serviced first, "Service In Random Order" (SIRO) in which the
customers are serviced randomly irrespective of their arrivals. "Priority service" is
when the customers are grouped in priority classes based on urgency. "Preemptive
Priority" is the highest priority given to the customer who enters into the service,
immediately, even if a customer with lower priority is in service. "Non-preemptive
priority" is where the customer goes ahead in the queue, but will be served only after
the completion of the current service.

9.3.4 The Number of Customers allowed in the System

Some of the queuing processes allow the limitation to the capacity or size of the waiting
room, so that the waiting line reaches a certain length, no additional customers is allowed
to enter until space becomes available by a service completion. This type of situation
means that there is a finite limit to the maximum queue size.

9.3.5 The Number of Service Channels

The more the number of service channels in the service facility, the greater the overall
service rate of the facility. The combination of arrival rate and service rate is critical for
determining the number of service channels. When there are a number of service channels
available for service, then the arrangement of service depends upon the design of the
system's service mechanism.
Parallel channels means, a number of channels providing identical service facilities so
that several customers may be served simultaneously. Series channel means a customer
go through successive ordered channels before service is completed. The arrangements
of service facilities are illustrated in Figure 45. A queuing system is called a one-server
model, i.e., when the system has only one server, and a multi-server model i.e., when
the system has a number of parallel channels, each with one server.
(a) Arrangement of service facilities in series

Customers Served Facility

XXXX Served Customers

274
 (1) Single Queue Single Server Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
Served Facility

XXXX Served Customers

(2) Single Queue, Multiple Server

(b) Arrangement of Service facilities in Parallel
Service Facility

Served Customers
Customers
XXXX
Service Facility
Served Customers

(c) Arrangement of Mixed Service facilities

Customers

XXXX
Served
Customer

Service Facilities

Figure 9.2: Arrangements of Service Facilities (a, b, c)

9.3.6 Attitude of Customers

Patient Customer: Customer arrives at the service system, stays in the queue until
served, no matter how much he has to wait for service.
Impatient Customer: Customer arrives at the service system, waits for a certain time
in the queue and leaves the system without getting service due to some reasons like long
queue before him.
Balking: Customer decides not to join the queue by seeing the number of customers
already in service system.
Reneging: Customer after joining the queue, waits for some time and leaves the service
system due to delay in service.
Jockeying: Customer moves from one queue to another thinking that he will get served
faster by doing so.

9.4 POISSON AND EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Both the Poisson and Exponential distributions play a prominent role in queuing theory.
Considering a problem of determining the probability of n arrivals being observed during
a time interval of length t, where the following assumptions are made. 275
Quantitative Techniques i. Probability that an arrival is observed during a small time interval (say of length v)
for Management is proportional to the length of interval. Let the proportionality constant be l, so that
the probability is lv.
ii. Probability of two or more arrivals in such a small interval is zero.
iii. Number of arrivals in any time interval is independent of the number in non-
overlapping time interval.
These assumptions may be combined to yield what probability distributions are likely to
be, under Poisson distribution with exactly n customers in the system.
Suppose function P is defined as follows:
P (n customers during period t) = the probability that n arrivals will be observed
in a time interval of length t

(λt)n e −λt
then, P (n, t) = (n = 0, 1, 2,……………) ..................(1)
n!
This is the Poisson probability distribution for the discrete random variable n, the number
of arrivals, where the length of time interval, t is assumed to be given. This situation in
queuing theory is called Poisson arrivals. Since the arrivals alone are considered (not
departures), it is called a pure birth process.
The time between successive arrivals is called inter-arrival time. In the case where
the number of arrivals in a given time interval has Poisson distribution, inter-arrival times
can be shown to have the exponential distribution. If the inter-arrival times are independent
random variables, they must follow an exponential distribution with density f(t) where,
f (t) = le –lt (t > 0) .................(2)
Thus for Poisson arrivals at the constant rate l per unit, the time between successive
arrivals (inter-arrival time) has the exponential distribution. The average Inter - arrival
time is denoted by –I .
–
By integration, it can be shown that E(t) = I/ λ .................(3)

If the arrival rate l = 30/hour, the average time between two successive arrivals are
1/30 hour or 2 minutes.
For example, in the following arrival situations, the average arrival rate per hour, l and
the average inter arrival time in hour, are determined.
(i) One arrival comes every 15 minutes.
60
Average arrival rate , l = = 4 arrivals per hour.
15

Average inter arrival time –I = 15 minutes = ¼ or 0.25 hour.

(ii) Three arrivals occur every 6 minutes.
Average arrival rate, l = 30 arrivals per hour.
6 1
Average Inter-arrival time, –I = = 2 minutes = or 0.33 hr.
3 30
(iii) Average interval between successive intervals is 0.2 hour.
1
Average arrival rate, l = = 5 arrivals per hour.
0.2

Average Inter-arrival time, –I = 0.2 hour.

Similarly, in the following service situations, the average service rate per hour, µ and
276 average service time in hours are determined.
(i) One service is completed in 10 minutes. Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
60
Average service rate, m = = 6 services per hour.
10
30
Average service time, S = = 10 minutes or 0.166 hour.
4
(ii) Number of customers served in 15 minutes is 4.
4
Average service rate, m = x 60 =16 services per hour.
15
30
Average services time, S = = 3.75 mins or 0.0625 hour.
4
(iii) Average service time is 0.25 hour.
Average service rate , m = 4 services per hour.
Average service time S = 15 mins or 0.25 hour.
Example 1: In a factory, the machines break down and require service according to a
Poisson distribution at the average of four per day. What is the probability that exactly
six machines break down in two days?
Solution: Given l = 4, n = 6, t =2
P(n, t) = P(6, 4) when l = 4
(λt)n e–λt
we know, P(n, t) =
n!
(4 × 2) e
6 –4×2
P(6,2) =
6!
6 –8
8 e
=
720
= 0.1221
Solving the Problem using Computer
Example 1 is solved using computer with TORA. Enter into TORA package and select
Queuing Analysis option. Press 'go to input screen' to enter the values. The input
screen is shown in Figure 9.3 given below. The numbers scenarios is 1 and the value of
Lambda is lt = 4 × 2 = 8.

Figure 9.3: Queuing Analysis Using TORA (Input Screen) 277

Quantitative Techniques Press 'solve', to view the Queuing Analysis output . Select Scenario 1 option, to get the
for Management
result, as shown in Figure 9.4.

Figure 9.4: Queuing Analysis Using TORA (Output Screen)

In the output screen, for n = 6 the probability, Pn is given as 0.12214.
Example 2: On an average, 6 customers arrive in a coffee shop per hour. Determine
the probability that exactly 3 customers will reach in a 30 minute period, assuming that
the arrivals follow Poisson distribution.
Solution: Given, l = 6 customers / hour
t = 30 Minutes = 0.5 hour
n=2

(λt)n e–λt
we know, P(n, t) =
n!

(6 × 0 . 5 ) e2 – 6× 0 . 5

P(6,2) = = 0.22404
2!

Similarly, when the time taken to serve different customers are independent, the probability
that no more than t periods would be required to serve a customer is given by exponential
distribution as follows:
p(not more than t time period) = 1 – e– mt where m = average service rate
Example 3: A manager of a fast food restaurant observes that, an average of 9 customers
are served by a waiter in a one-hour time period. Assuming that the service time has an
exponential distribution, what is the probability that
(a) A customer shall be free within 12 minutes.
(b) A customer shall be serviced in more than 25 minutes.
278
Solution: Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
(a) Given, m = 9 customers / hour
t = 15 minutes = 0.25 hour
Therefore, p (less than 15 minutes) = l – e– mt
= 1– e– 9 × 0.25
= 0.8946
(b) Given, m = 9 customers / hour
t = 25 minutes = 0.4166 hour
Therefore, P (more than 25 minutes) = l – e– mt
= 1– e– 9 × 0.4166
= 0.0235
To analyze queuing situations, the questions of interest that are typically concerned with
measures of queuing system performance include,
l What will be the waiting time for a customer before service is complete?
l What will be the average length of the queue?
l What will be the probability that the queue length exceeds a certain length?
l How can a system be designed at minimum total cost?
l How many servers should be employed?
l Should priorities of the customers be considered?
l Is there sufficient waiting area for the customers?

9.5 SYMBOLS AND NOTATIONS

The symbols and notations used in queuing system are as follows:
n = Number of customers in the system (both waiting and in service).
l = Average number of customers arriving per unit of time.
m = Average number of customers being served per unit of time.
l/m = P, traffic intensity.
C = Number of parallel service channels (i,e., servers).
Ls = Average or expected number of customers in the system (both waiting
and in service).
Lq = Average or expected number of customers in the queue.
Ws = Average waiting time in the system (both waiting and in service).
Wq = Average waiting time of a customer in the queue.
Pn = Time independent probability that there are n customers in the system
(both waiting and in service).
Pn (t) = Probability that there are n customers in the system at any time t
(both waiting and in service).

279
Quantitative Techniques
for Management 9.6 SINGLE SERVER QUEUING MODEL

a / FIFO)
Model 1: (MM1) : (a
This model is based on the following assumptions:
(i) The arrivals follow Poisson distribution, with a mean arrival rate l.
(ii) The service time has exponential distribution, average service rate m.
(iii) Arrivals are infinite population a.
(iv) Customers are served on a First-in, First-out basis (FIFO).
(v) There is only a single server.

System of Steady-state Equations

In this method, the question arises whether the service can meet the customer demand.
This depends on the values of l and m.
If l ≥ m
m, i.e., if arrival rate is greater than or equal to the service rate, the waiting line
would increase without limit. Therefore for a system to work, it is necessary that l < m.
As indicated earlier, traffic intensity r = l / m. This refers to the probability of time. The
service station is busy. We can say that, the probability that the system is idle or there are
no customers in the system, P0 = 1 – r.
From this, the probability of having exactly one customer in the system is P1 = r P0.
Likewise, the probability of having exactly 2 customers in the system would be
P3 = rP1 = r2 P0
The probability of having exactly n customers in the system is
Pn = rnP0 = rn(1-r) = (l / m)n P0
The expected number of customers in the system is given by,

α α

Ls = ∑
n=1
nPn = ∑ n(1– λ/µ )(λ/µ )
n= 1
n

λ ρ
= = ........................(2)
µ − λ 1− ρ

The expected number of customers in the queue is given by,

α
Ln = ∑ (n – 1)P
n =1
n

α α
= ∑ nP – ∑P
n =1
n
n =1
n

λ2 ρ2
= = ....................(3)
µ(µ – λ ) 1 – ρ

With an average arrival rate l, the average time between the arrivals is 1 / l. Therefore,
the mean waiting time in queue, wq is the product of the average time between the
280
arrivals and the average queue length,
 Waiting Model
 1  1  (Queuing Theory)
Wq =  λ   1− ρ  ....................(4)
 

 1  µ 
=  λ  µ − λ 
 

 λ2  ρ
 =
 µ(µ – λ ) µ – λ
Substituting

Similarly the average waiting time in the system , Ws

 1  ρ 
Ws =  λ   1− ρ  .......................(5)
 
putting Ls = l (m – l) , we get
1
Ws = µ − λ

Queuing Equations
The evaluation of Model I is listed below:
1. Expected number of customers in the system,
λ ρ
Ls = =
µ − λ 1− ρ
2. Expected number of customers in the queue,

λ2 ρ2
Lq = =
µ(µ − λ) 1− ρ
3. Average waiting time in the system,
1
Ws =
µ−λ
4. Average waiting time in the queue,
λ
Wq =
µ(µ − λ )
5. Average waiting time for a customer,
1 1
W(w / w > 0) = or
µ(1− ρ) µ−λ
6. Expected length of non-empty queue,
µ
L(m / m > 0) =
(µ − λ )
7. Probability that there are n customers in the system,
n n
λ  λ  λ
Pn =   P0 =   1– 
µ  µ   µ
8. Probability that there is nobody in the system,
1− λ
P0 =
µ 281
Quantitative Techniques 9. Probability that there is at least one customer or queue is busy,
for Management
Pb = 1− P0

10. Traffic intensity,

λ
ρ=
µ
Example 4: Consider a situation where the mean arrival rate (l) is one customer every
4 minutes and the mean service time (m) is 2½ minutes. Calculate the average number
of customers in the system, the average queue length and the time taken by a customer
in the system and the average time a customer waits before being served.
Solution: Given, Average Arrival Rate l = 1 customer every 4 minutes or 15 customers
per hour
Average Service -Rate m = 1 customer every 2½ minutes or 24 customers per hour
(i) The average number of customers in the system,
λ
Ls =
µ−λ
15
= = 1.66 customers
24 − 15
(ii) The average queue length,
λ   λ 
Lq =   µ − λ 
µ   
15 15
= ×
24 24 − 15
= 1.04 customers
(iii) The average time a customer spends in the system,
1
Ws =
µ−λ
1
=
24 − 15
= 0.11 × 60 = 6.66 minutes
(iv) The average time a customer waits before being served,
λ
Wq =
λ(µ − λ )

15
=
24(24 − 15)
= 0.069 × 60
= 4.16 minutes
Example 5: Trucks at a single platform weigh-bridge arrive according to Poisson
probability distribution. The time required to weigh the truck follows an exponential
probability distribution. The mean arrival rate is 12 trucks per day, and the mean service
rate is 18 trucks per day. Determine the following:
(a) What is the probability that no trucks are in the system?
(b) What is the average number of trucks waiting for service?
(c) What is the average time a truck waits for weighing service to begin?
282 (d) What is the probability that an arriving truck will have to wait for service?
Solution: Given l = 12 trucks per days, m = 18 trucks per day. Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
(a) Probability that no trucks are waiting for service,

λ
P0 = 1−
µ

12
= 1−
18
= 0.3333 or 33.33%
(b) Average number of trucks waiting for service,

λ   λ 
Lq =   µ − λ 
µ   

 12   12 
= 
 18   18 − 12 
= 1.33 trucks
(c) Average time a truck waits for weighing service to begin,

λ
Wq =
µ(µ − λ )

12
=
18(18 − 12)
= 0.1111 days or 53.3 minutes.
(d) Probability that an arriving truck will have to wait for service,
P0 = 1 – P0
= 1 – 0.333
= 0.6667 or 66.67%

Check Your Progress 9.1

1 Explain Queuing Theory giving few examples.

2. “Both the Poisson and Exponential distributions play a prominent role in queuing
theory.” Jusify the statement.
Notes: (a) Write your answer in the space given below.
(b) Please go through the lesson sub-head thoroughly you will get your
answers in it.
(c) This Chek Your Progress will help you to understand the lesson better.
Try to write answers for them, but do not submit your answers to the
university for assessment. These are for your practice only.
_____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
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283
Quantitative Techniques
for Management 9.7 SOLVING THE PROBLEM USING COMPUTER WITH
TORA
Example 5 is solved using computer with TORA.
Enter the values l = 12
m = 18
No. of server = 1
The input screen is shown in Figure 9.5.

Figure 9.5: Queuing Analysis Using TORA (Input Screen)

Press Solve to get the output screen and select scenario 1 option in the select output
option menu. The output screen for the problem is displayed as shown in Figure 9.6.

284 Figure 9.6: Queuing Analysis Using TORA (Output Screen)

The values are Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
(a) P0 = 0.3333 (for n = 0)
(b) Lq = 1.33
(c) Wq = 0.1111

ρ
(d) Pb (or) = 0.66667
C
In the same problem, to determine the probability that there are 2 trucks in the system,
we use the formula,
n
λ   λ 
Pn =   1− 
µ   µ 

2
 12   12 
=   1− 
 18   18 
= 0.4444 × 0.3333
= 0.14815 or 14.81%
This can also be read in the output screen for n=2 the probability P n = 0.14815,
Similarly, the probabilities for different values of n can be directly read.
Example 6: A TV repairman finds that the time spent on his jobs has a exponential
distribution with mean 30 minutes. If he repairs TV sets in the order in which they come
in, and if the arrivals follow approximately Poisson distribution with an average rate of
10 per 8 hour day, what is the repairman's expected idle time each day? How many jobs
are ahead of the average with the set just brought in?
Solution: Given l = 10 TV sets per day.
m = 16 TV sets per day.
(i) The Probability for the repairman to be idle is,
P0 = 1 – r
We know, r = l / 30 = 10 / 16 =0.625
P0 = 1 – r
= 1 – 0.625 = 0.375
Expected idle time per day = 8 × 0.375
= 3 hours.
(ii) How many jobs are ahead of the average set just brought in

λ
Ls =
µ−λ

10 10
= =
16 − 10 6
= 1.66 say 2 jobs.
Example 7: Auto car service provides a single channel water wash service. The incoming
arrivals occur at the rate of 4 cars per hour and the mean service rate is 8 cars per hour.
Assume that arrivals follow a Poisson distribution and the service rate follows an
exponential probability distribution. Determine the following measures of performance: 285
Quantitative Techniques (a) What is the average time that a car waits for water – wash to begin?
for Management
(b) What is the average time a car spends in the system?
(c) What is the average number of cars in the system?
Solution: Given l = 4 cars per hour, m = 8 cars per day.
(a) Average time that a car waits for water - wash to begin,
λ
Wq =
λ(µ − λ )

4
=
8(8 − 4)
= 0.125 hours or 7.5 mins.
(b) Average time a car spends in the system,
1
Ws =
µ−λ
1 1
= = = 0.25 hours or 15 mins.
8−4 4
(c) Average number of cars in the system,
λ 4
Ls = =
µ − λ 8− 4
4
= = 1 car.
4
Example 8: Arrivals at a telephone booth are considered to be Poisson distributed with
an average time of 10 minutes between one arrival and the next. The length of phone
call is assumed to be distributed exponentially, with mean 3 minutes.
(i) What is the probability that a person arriving at the booth will have to wait?
(ii) The telephone department will install a second booth when convinced that an arrival
would expect waiting for at least 3 minutes for phone call. By how much should the
flow of arrivals increase in order to justify a second booth?
(iii) What is the average length of the queue that forms from time to time?
(iv) What is the probability that it will take him more than 10 minutes altogether to wait
for the phone and complete his call?
(v) What is the probability that it will take him more than 10 minutes altogether to wait
for the phone and complete his call?
Solution: Given l = 1/10 = 0.10 person per minute.
m = 1/3 = 0.33 person per minute.
(i) Probability that a person arriving at the booth will have to wait,
P (w > 0) = 1 – P0
= 1 – (1 - l / m) = l / m
0.10
= = 0.3
0.33
(ii) The installation of second booth will be justified if the arrival rate is more than
the waiting time.
Expected waiting time in the queue will be,
λ
Wq =
µ(µ − λ )
286
 Where, E(w) = 3 and l = l (say ) for second booth. Simplifying we get Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
l = 0.16
Hence the increase in arrival rate is, 0.16-0.10 =0.06 arrivals per minute.
(iii) Average number of units in the system is given by,

ρ 0.3
Ls = = = 0.43 customers
1− ρ 1− 0.3

(iv) Probability of waiting for 10 minutes or more is given by

l a
( – m –l)
P ( W ≥ 10) = Ú m (m – l ) e dt
10

a
=Ú
10
(0.3) (0.23) e – 0.23dt
a
È e -0.23t ˘
= 0.069 Í ˙
Î -0.23 ˚10

= 0.03
This shows that 3 percent of the arrivals on an average will have to wait for 10 minutes
or more before they can use the phone.
Example 9: A bank has decided to open a single server drive-in banking facility at its
main branch office. It is estimated that 20 customers arrive each hour on an average.
The time required to serve a customer is 3 minutes on an average. Assume that arrivals
follow a Poisson distribution and the service rate follows an exponential probability
distribution.
The bank manager is interested in knowing the following:
(a) What will be the average waiting time of a customer to get the service?
(b) The proportion of time that the system will be idle.
(c) The space required to accommodate all the arrivals, on an average, the space
taken by each car is 10 feet that is waiting for service.

60
Solution: l = 20 Customers per hour, m = = 2.4 customers per hour.
25
(a) Average waiting time of a customer to get the service,
λ
Wq =
µ(µ − λ )

20 20
= =
24 ( 24 − 20 ) 96
= 0.208 hour or 12.5 mins.
(b) The proportion of time that the system will be idle,
λ
P0 = 1−
µ

20
= 1−
24
= 0.166 hours or 10 mins.
287
Quantitative Techniques (c ) Average number of customers waiting in the queue,
for Management

λ2
Lq =
µ(µ − λ)

20 2 400
= =
24 ( 24 − 20 ) 96
= 4.66 customers.
10 feet is required for 1 customer. Hence, for 4.66 customers, the space required is
10 × 4.66 = 46.6 feet.
Example 10: In a Bank, customers arrive to deposit cash to a single counter server
every 15 minutes. The bank staff on an average takes 10 minutes to serve a customer.
The manager of the bank noticed that on an average at least one customer was waiting
at the counter. To eliminate the customer waiting time, the manager provided an automatic
currency counting machine to the staff. This decreased the service time to 5 minutes on
an average to every customer. Determine whether this rate of service will satisfy the
manager's interest. Also use computer with TORA for solving the problem.
Solution:

60 60
Case 1: λ = = 4 customers per hour, µ = = 60 = 6 customers per hour.
15 10
Average number of customers in the system,

λ
Ls =
µ−λ

4 4
= = = 2 customers.
6−4 2

60
Case 2: l = 4 , µ = = 12 customers per hour.
15
Average number of customers in the system,

4
Ls =
12 − 4

4 1
= = = 0.5, say, 1 customer.
8 2
Average number of customers in the queue

λ2
Lq =
µ(µ − λ)

42 16
= = = 0.01 customers.
12 ( 12 − 4 ) 96

Since no customers are standing in the queue the manager's interest is satisfied.
The problem is worked out using TORA. Enter the values as shown in the input screen
288 below in Figure 9.7.
 Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)

Figure 9.7: Queuing Analysis Using TORA (Input Screen)

Press Solve and go to output screen. Select comparative analysis option in the
queuing output analysis menu. The following output screen is displayed (Figure 9.8).

Figure 9.8: Comparative Analysis of Queuing Output Analysis Using TORA (Output Screen)
Now, on comparing scenario 1 and scenario 2, under Ls i.e., the average number of
customers in the system is 2 and 0.5 respectively. In the first scenario, it means that in
the entire system, one customer will be waiting in the queue while others are being
served. In scenario 2, only one customer is in the system and being served, where on an
average no customer will be waiting.
Example 11: 12 counters are available in a computerized railway reservation system.
The arrival rate during peak hours is 90 customers per hour. It takes 5 minutes to serve
a customer on an average. Assume that the arrivals joining in a queue will not be jockeying
(i.e., move to another queue). How many counters have to be opened if the customers
need not to wait for more than 15 minutes? 289
Quantitative Techniques Solution: The problem is to be solved as one system comprising of 'n' number of single
for Management
server queuing model.
Arrival rate, l =90 customers per hour

60
Service rate, m = =12 per hour
5

15
Average waiting time, Wq = = 0.25 hours
60

λ
Average waiting time, Wq = µ(µ − λ)

λ
i.e., 0.25 = µ(µ – λ ) ................................(i)

Let, number of counters be x,

Considering the single server queuing system, the number of counters required to serve
90 90
90 arrivals per hour, λ = substituting λ = in equation (i),
x x

90 / x
0.25 =
 90 
12 12 – 
 x 

90
0.25 =
12(12x – 90 )

0.25 × 12(12x – 90) = 90

3(12x – 90) = 90
36x – 270 = 90
36x = 360

360
x= = 10 counters
36

Hence, 10 counters are required so that an average arrival will wait less than 15 minutes.
Example 12: In a single pump petrol station, vehicles arrive at the rate of 20 customers
per hour and petrol filling takes 2 minutes on an average. Assume the arrival rate is
Poisson probability distribution and service rate is exponentially distributed, determine
(a) What is the probability that no vehicles are in the petrol station?
(b) What is the probability that 1 customer is filling and no one is waiting in the queue?
(c) What is the probability that 1 customer is filling and 2 customers are waiting in the
queue?
(d) What is the probability that more than 2 customers are waiting?
Solution : l = 20 vehicles per hour, m = 60/2 = 30 vehicles per hour.
290
(a) Probability that no vehicles are in the petrol station, Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
λ 20
P1 = 1 − = 1−
µ 30
= 0.3334 or 33.34%
(b) Probability that 1 customer is filling and no one is waiting in the queue,
n n
λ  λ   λ 
Pn =   P0 =   1 − µ 
µ  µ   
1
 20   20 
P1 =  1−
 30   30 
= 0.6666 × 0.3334
= 0.2222 or 22.22%
(c) Probability that 1 customer is filling and 2 customers are waiting in the queue, i.e.,
there are 3 customers in the system,
3
 20   20 
P3 =  1−
 30   30 
= 0.2963 × 0.3334
= 0.09878 or 9.87 %
(d) Probability that more than 3 customers are in the system,
4
 20   20 
P4 =    1−
 30   30 
= 0.1975 × 0.334
= 0.6585 or 65.85%
The calculation made for the above problem is represented in the TORA output screen
shown below in Figure 9.9.

Figure 9.9: Queuing Analysis Using TORA (Output Screen) 291

Quantitative Techniques
Check Your Progress 9.2
for Management

1. The assumption of queuing theory are so restrictive as to render behaviour

prediction of queuing system practically worthless Discuss.
2. Explain the meaning of a queue and state the object of queuing analysis.
Briefly describe with the help of hypothetical example the elements of the
queuing system.
3. Give examples of five situations/circumstances in which there in a limited a
finite waiting line.
4. Elaborate the vital operating characteristis of a queuing system.
5. What are the modules of the following queuing system? Draw and explains
the configuration of each
(a) General store
(b) Big Bazar
(c) Railway reservation
(d) Car wash at the service center.
Notes: (a) Write your answer in the space given below.
(b) Please go through the lesson sub-head thoroughly you will get your
answers in it.
(c) This Chek Your Progress will help you to understand the lesson better.
Try to write answers for them, but do not submit your answers to the
university for assessment. These are for your practice only.
_____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________

9.8 LET US SUM UP

Queuers or waiting lines are very familiar in day to day life. In general quite often we
face the problem of long queues for a bus, a movie ticket, railway reservation, ATM
m/c and various, other situation. The queuing model are those where a facility perform a
service. A queuing problem arises when the current services rate of a facility fall short
of the current flow rate of customer. Thus if the service facility capable of servicing
customers arrive there will be no pitfalls. Thus the queuing theory is related with the
decision making process of the business unit which relates with the queue question and
makes decision relative to the number of service facilities which are operating.

9.9 LESSON-END ACTIVITY

As you are travelling from one place to another. You need a various mode of transportation
from one destination to other. These transportation are known as Bus, Train, Aeroplane
etc. While taking reservation of this particular transport. We have to go to the reservation
counter and book tickets and finally face a huge waiting line or queue of passengers.
Apply the waiting line theory to regulate this problem and find solution to make the
system stream-line.
292
 Waiting Model
9.10 KEYWORDS (Queuing Theory)

Balking : A customer may not like to join the queue seeing it very long
and he may not like to wait.
Reneging : He may leave the queue due to impatience after joining in
collusion several customers may collaborate and only one of
them may stand in queue.
Jockeying : If there are number of queues then one may leave one queue
to join another.
Queue length : No. of customers waiting in the queue.
Queuing system : System consisting arrival of customers, waiting in queue,
picked up for sevice according to a certain discipline, being
serviced and departure of customers.
Service station : Point where service is provided
Customer : Person or unit arriving at a station for service. Customer
may be a machine or person.
Waiting time : Time a customer spends in the queue before being serviced.

9.11 QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION

1. Write True or False against each statement:
(a) Parallel channel means, a number of channels providing identical services.
(b) Queuing theory is concerned with the decision making process.
(c) Customer decide not to joins the queue is Reneging.
(d) The line that form in front of service facilities is called a queue.
(e) Random arrival mean when there is how service point.
2. Briefly comment on the following statements:
(a) In designing a queuing system, the system should balance service to customers.
(b) Queuing theory deals with problem that involve waiting.
(c) Most of queuing models are quite complex and cannot be easily understood.
(d) In a single channel facility the output of the queue does not pose any problem.
(e) The object of the queuing theory is to achieve a good economic balance and
also to minimise the total waiting & service cost.
3. Fill in the blank:
(a) The arrival time for any customer is _____________
(b) The most common queue discipline _____________
(c) If there is queue then _____________ has to wait for same lines.
(d) Cost associated with service or the facility are known as _____________
(e) Waiting time is a time which customer spends in the _____________
4. Write Short Notes:
(a) Queue discipline
(b) Service mechanism is queuing theory
(c) Queuing system 293
Quantitative Techniques
for Management 9.12 TERMINAL QUESTIONS
1. What is the queuing theory?
2. Define arrival rate and service rate.
3. Explain the characteristics of MM1 queuing model.
4. Briefly explain Service Mechanism and Queue Discipline.
5. What is system of steady-state?

Exercise Problems
1. A Bank operates a single facility ATM machine. Customers arrive at the rate of
10 customers per hour according to Poisson probability distribution. The time taken
for an ATM transaction is exponential which means 3 minutes on an average. Find
the following:
(a) Average waiting time of a customer before service.
(b) Average number of customers in the system.
(c) Probability that the ATM is idle.
2. At an average 12 cars per hour arrive at a single-server, drive-in teller. The average
service time for each customer is 4 minutes, and the arrivals and services are
Poisson and exponentially distributed respectively. Answer the following questions:
(a) What is the proportion that the teller is idle?
(b) What is the time spent by a customer to complete his transaction?
(c) What is the probability that an arriving car need not wait to take-up service?
3. At a single facility security check at an airport, passengers arrive at the check-
point on an average of 8 passengers per minute and follows a Poisson probability
distribution. The checking time for a customer entering security check area takes
10 passengers per minute and follows an exponential probability distribution.
Determine the following:
(a) On an average, how many passengers are waiting in queue to enter the check-
point?
(b) On an average, what is the time taken by a customer leaving the check-
point?
4. In a college computer lab, computers are interconnected to one laser printer. The
printer receives data files for printing from these 25 computers interconnected to
it. The printer prints the files received from these 25 computers at the rate of 5
data files per minute. The average time required to print a data file is 6 minutes.
Assuming the arrivals are Poisson distributed and service times are exponentially
distributed, determine
(a) What is the probability that the printer is busy?
(b) On an average, how much time must a computer operator wait to take a
print-out?
(c) On an average, what is the expected number of operators that will be waiting
to take a print-out?
5. Skyline pizza is a famous restaurant operating a number of outlets. The restaurant
uses a toll-free telephone number to book pizzas at any of its outlets. It was found
that an average of 15 calls are received per hour and the average time to handle
each call is 2.5 minutes. Determine the following:
294
 (a) What is the average waiting time of an incoming caller? Waiting Model
(Queuing Theory)
(b) What is the probability that a caller gets connected immediately?
(c) If the restaurant manager feels that average waiting time of a caller is more
than 5 minutes, will lead to customer loss and the restaurant will have to go in
for a second toll free facility, what should be the new arrival rate in order to
justify another facility?
6. From historical data, a two-wheeler service station observe that bikes arrive only
for water wash is at the rate of 7 per hour per 8 hour shift. The manager has a
record that it takes 5 minutes for water service and another 2 minutes for greasing
and general check. Assuming that one bike is washed at a time, find the following:
(a) Average number of bikes in line.
(b) Average time a bike waits before it is washed.
(c) Average time a bike spends in the system.
(d) Utilization rate of the bike wash.
(e) Probability that no bikes are in the system.
7. In a department at store, an automated coffee vending machine is installed.
Customers arrive at a rate of 3 per minute and it takes average time of 10 seconds
to dispense a cup of coffee:
(a) Determine the number of customers in the queue.
(b) Determine the waiting time of a customer.
(c) Find the probability that there are exactly 10 customers in the system.
8. In a toll gate, vehicles arrive at a rate of 120 per hour. An average time for a
vehicle to get a pass is 25 seconds. The arrivals follow a Poisson distribution and
service times follow an exponential distribution. (a) Find the average number of
vehicles waiting and the idle time of the check-post. (b) If the idle time of the
check post is less than 10%, the check-post authorities will install a second gate.
Suggest whether a second gate is necessary ?
9. A hospital has an X-ray lab where patients (both in-patient and out-patient) arrive
at a rate of 5 per minute. Due to variation in requirement, the time taken for one
patient is 3 minutes and follows an exponential distribution. (a) What is the probability
that the system is busy? and (b) What is the probability that nobody is in the system?
10. In the production shop of a company breakdown of the machine is found to be
Poisson with an average rate of 3 machines per hour. Breakdown time at one
machine costs Rs. 40 per hour to the company. There are two choices before the
company for hiring the repairmen, one of the repairmen is slow but cheap, the
other is fast but expensive. The slow-cheap repairman demands Rs. 20 per hour
and will repair the breakdown machine exponentially at the rate of 4 per hour. The
fast expensive repairman demands Rs. 30 per hour and will repair exponentially on
an average rate of Rs.6 per hour. Which repairman should be hired?

9.13 MODEL ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS FOR

DISCUSSION
1. (a) True (b) True (c) False
(d) True (e) False
3. (a) unpredictable (b) [First come first serve (FCFS)]
(c) customer (d) service cost (e) queue 295
Quantitative Techniques
for Management 9.14 SUGGESTED READINGS
T.L. Satty, Elements of Queuing, New York McGraw Hill Theory.
A.M. Lee, Applied Queuing thoery.
Cooper, R.B., Introduction to Queuing theory, New York MacMillan Co.
Morse, Philip M.Ques, Inventories & maintenance, New York John Wiley & Sons.
Panieo, J.A., Queuing Theory: A Study of Waiting Line of Business, Economics,
Science, Englewood, No. 3, Prentice-Hall.
Bhat, U.N. “The Value of Queuing Theory – A Rejoinder Interface, Vol. 8, No. 3
pp. 27-78.
Byrd. J., The value of queuing & Interfaces, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 22-26.
Render, B & Stain R.M., Cases & readings in quantitative analysis, Boston: Allyn &
Bacon, 1982.
Graff G, “Simple Queuing thoery saves Unneccessary Equipment”, Industrial
Engineering, Vol. 3.
Paul R.I., Stevens R.E., Staffing service activities with waiting the models decision,
Science, Vol. 2

296