Betfair Loophole

the ultimate Betfair system

http://www.bfloophole.com

© BF Loophole 2008 All Rights Reserved

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Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 3
Getting to know the basics......................................................................................................... 3
Understanding Odds and Percentages .................................................................................. 3
Fractional Odds ...................................................................................................................... 4
Getting Value in your bets ...................................................................................................... 4
Favourites............................................................................................................................... 5
Laying and Betting Exchanges .................................................................................................. 6
What is Laying? ...................................................................................................................... 7
Betting Exchanges ................................................................................................................. 7
Guide to Betfair....................................................................................................................... 9
The Dishlicker System ............................................................................................................. 13
Form ..................................................................................................................................... 13
To Back or to Lay? ............................................................................................................... 14
What races should I lay in? .................................................................................................. 14
Graded Racing ..................................................................................................................... 15
Where does the money come from? .................................................................................... 16
Money Management............................................................................................................. 16
Staking Plans........................................................................................................................ 18
The System .............................................................................................................................. 21
Which dog to lay ................................................................................................................... 21
Which races to trade ............................................................................................................ 21
Laying the Favourite ............................................................................................................. 21
Trading the Favourite ........................................................................................................... 22
What price do we lay? .......................................................................................................... 26
Conclusion............................................................................................................................ 27
Alternative trading methods.................................................................................................. 28
Favourites under £2.00 ........................................................................................................ 28
Races outside our rules........................................................................................................ 28
The reasons.......................................................................................................................... 28
The reason we select certain races only. ............................................................................. 29
7 Golden Rules of successful trading ...................................................................................... 31
Rule 1 – DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE............................................................... 31
Rule 2 – MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL................................................................................ 31
Rule 3 – COPING WITH SWINGS ....................................................................................... 32
Rule 4 - SPECIALISING ....................................................................................................... 33
Rule 5 – RESEARCH YOUR INVESTMENTS..................................................................... 33
Rule 6 – KEEP RECORDS .................................................................................................. 33
Rule 7 – DON’T GAMBLE AND DRINK ............................................................................... 34

Copyright © 2008 Betfair Loophole

All rights reserved. It is illegal to copy, distribute, or create derivative works from this e-book in
whole or in part. Please be aware that using information in this book is at your own discretion.
The author is in no way liable for any debts that you may incur with your trading decisions.
Please note that gambling and the use of information related to gambling is illegal in some
countries. The author holds no responsibility for any reader using the information herein while
it is against the local laws of the country they reside in.

© BF Loophole 2008 All Rights Reserved

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Introduction
Congratulations on purchasing a copy of BF Loophole.

Here are some Betfair secrets the professionals don’t want you to
know. You will be opening up the world of the Bookmaker and
Market Trader and seeing how they operate and why they win.

I have set this manual out as an easy to follow guide so no matter

what experience you have you will be able to follow the instructions
easily.

Of course everyone who reads this book will have different levels
of skill and knowledge within the broad area of trading on Betfair.

With this in mind I have included several sections at the beginning

of the book aimed at the novice. This will help further your
understanding of Greyhound racing, trading and laying before you
go onto the system.

This guide will include references to £ and $au. That is because it

covers UK and Australian Greyhounds and Betfair gives you a
choice of UK and Australian wallets to bet with. So we have
covered both.

The system is based on laying and trading the favourites in certain

Greyhound races. Once you get the hang of it, you will be amazed
at how easy it is to make money trading and laying Greyhounds.
Well that’s enough of an introduction. Let’s get on with it.

Getting to know the basics

Understanding Odds and Percentages

Odds are referred to as the ‘price’ for a dog in a race. The bookies
set the prices, according to what they believe is, the dog’s chance
of winning. The more likely they think a dog is to win, the ‘shorter’
the dog’s price will be. That is to say the smaller the return will be
for a punter who backs the dog to win.

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For example if a dog is priced at 4/1 then the bookie is saying that
if that exact race was run 5 times that dog would win it once. Or to
put it another way the dog has a 20% chance of winning.

Fractional Odds
The traditional British way is to describe the odds as a fraction e.g.
5/1 or ‘Five to One’. When the first figure is higher than the second
it is called ‘odds against’. The amount won will be greater than the
original stake. For example if the odds offered were 5/1 then for
every £1 staked you would win £5.
When the first figure is smaller than the second it is called ‘odds
on’ and the amount of winnings will be smaller than the stake. For
example if the odds offered were 4/6 then for every £6 staked you
would win £4.

On the Betfair website, they use Decimal odds. So 5/1 will be seen
as 6.00 and 7/2 which is 3.5/1 will be shown as 4.5. This is
because in fractional odds, the bet and the return are shown
separately 5/1 = bet 1 win 5 and you will collect 6 from the bookie.

In Betfair, the return is included. So if you placed a back bet for

£10 @ 6.00 you will win £50 if the bet wins. 6.00 – your £10 = £50.

Getting Value in your bets

The notion of value is widely underestimated in the world of betting
by almost everyone bar the professionals. It is the very reason that
bookmakers are able to profit on every dog in every race. Let me
explain.

If a dog’s real chance of winning is 9/1 then it means that if that

dog was allowed to run that exact same race ten times it would win
once. The other nine times it would lose. If you put £1 on the dog
for each of those ten races you would invest £10 in total.

For the one race that the dog won you would receive £10 back
from the bookmakers (including £9 profit and the £1 stake
returned). So as you can see in the long run you would break
even. Now imagine that same dog, with its 9/1 chance of winning,
was priced at 15/1 by a bookmaker.

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Now for those ten races your investment would still be £10. But
your return on that one winning race would now be £16 (including
£15 profit and the £1 stake returned). So you have achieved a
value bet.

This means you will have made £6 pure profit or more impressively
a 60% return on investment. Of course the example above is very
simplistic but the model works. Having value in your investments is
the only way to reap long term profits. Now imagine how many
times a bookmaker will make a mistake on one of its prices. Think
of the resources available to William Hill for example. They have
teams of experts studying the form of every dog in every race, not
to mention the computer programs that can crunch years of data in
seconds. And all of it is pitted against you – the punter.

Now do you see how hard it is to beat the bookmaker? This is

exactly the reason why so few people can earn a living from
betting. Furthermore the majority of people like to bet on favourites
because they believe this will give them a better strike rate, hence
better profits. But guess what?

Favourites
The favourite offers the worst value out of every dog in the field.
Let me explain. When pricing up dogs the bookmakers includes an
over round on every dog so that each one represents value for
them. To put it another way the bookmaker wants to be certain of
making a profit in every race. It’s up to the punter to find a dog that
the bookie has priced up incorrectly and which offers value. Very
tough to do.

Bookmakers work in percentages. Now if the percentage of all the

runners in any given race put together is below 100% then
theoretically we can back every dog in that race and be
guaranteed a profit. Of course this never happens. Most markets
by bookmakers are set at an average 125%. So they make 25%
profit per race. On average. It is often much higher.

Most people will back the favourite. The more money that gets put
on a certain runner the bookmaker lowers the odds on that dog.
Simple supply and demand. As the price gets shorter more and
more people put money on it, because it looks such a ‘sure thing’,

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the price just gets lower and lower. It’s a vicious circle that creates
less value for the punters and more profits for the bookmakers.

The bookies may even make a ‘false favourite’. They may pick a
dog they think cannot win the race, install it as favourite, and then
watch as all the punters lump on it and make it shorter and shorter
and keep all the money when it runs last or thereabouts. It’s too
easy for them.

The trick to winning on UK greyhounds is in the grading. The

racing manager is paid to make the races as even as possible. In
his ideal world, all six dogs would cross the line together, a six way
dead heat and he would be happy as he has done his job. And it is
here we make our money. Let’s assume that the racing manager is
competent at his job. All six dogs in an A4 or A5 race will have the
same ability. So they all, in theory anyway, have a real 5/1 chance
of winning the race.

Do you ever see 5/1 the field (all runners) in the bookies? NO! You
will see 2/1 and 3/1 and 4/1. So backing a dog at 2/1 in an evenly
graded race in the long term is financial suicide. Don’t do it.

Since the advent of the betting exchange people have been able to
copy the bookmakers and begin making bets with value already
built in. In fact on the exchanges we have advantages over the
bookmaker.

We do NOT have to lay every dog in every race of the day. You
get to hand pick the dogs you lay which means we effectively just
pick the cream of the bookmakers business to focus on.

The bookies have done the hard work for us. Then you and I
simply watch the punters drive the prices down which in turn give
us more and more value in our bets.

With this strategy we are guaranteed value in all our bets and as
such are guaranteed long term profits. In the next section I will
discuss the process of laying in more detail.

Laying and Betting Exchanges

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What is Laying?

Laying dogs is not as complicated as you might think. It certainly

isn’t as complicated as many people will let you believe.
Laying a dog is like taking on the role of the bookie. It is simply
betting that a dog won’t win.
So if you lay a dog and it loses the race you win.
If you lay a dog and it wins the race you lose.
Rather than having one dog running with our money on it against
five others, we now have our money on five dogs with only one
running against us.
Let’s run through a quick example so you understand this fully.
We lay a dog called Wombat Stew at odds of 3.00 (2/1 in fractional
odds) for £10.
If Wombat Stew wins we have to pay out £20.
If Wombat Stew loses we win £10. (less 5% commission = £9.50)

Next up we lay a dog called Chip Boy at odds of 4.00 (3/1 in

Fractional odds) for £10.
If Chip Boy wins we have to pay out £30.
If Chip Boy loses we win £10. (less 5% commission = £9.50)
As you can see the lower the odds the less we have to pay out.

This is why my system focuses on laying short priced favourites. It

offers us much less of a risk and higher value. If backing a dog at
2/1 is bad value, laying it is GOOD value, long term.

Betting Exchanges

To lay a dog you have to use betting exchange.

Unlike traditional betting where there is a bookmaker who sets the

odds and punters who either take the offered odds or walk away, a
betting exchange is simply a website where visitors can bet against
other visitors on a range of events.
All bets on the exchange have been placed there by users who
either want to place a bet in the normal way (back), or offer odds to
other punters (lay).
Bets are matched between people with opposing views. Just as
eBay matches up buyers and sellers via the internet, betting
exchanges match up customers who want to strike a wager.

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You never know who you are betting against, your privacy and the
confidentiality of your bets is maintained by a secure site.
To become a member you simply have to register and place some
funds into your account. Once you have done this you can start to
use the account straight away.
There are a number of betting exchanges available on the internet.
Below I have listed a number of exchanges and their URL’s.
Betfair is by far the biggest betting exchange in the marketplace. It
is the one I use for all my trading activities as it almost always has
the most liquidity available.

For betfair users: A free bet is available when you sign up if you do
the following.

FREE £20 – If you would like £20 for free, simply sign up to
Betfair using the following link and type in this code –
JGNDWNRRF – in the ‘Refer and Earn’ box. Your account will
then be credited with £20.

Some other exchanges are as follows but they have much less
liquidity at this stage. Liquidity is volume of money to trade. You
may find a dog race on Betfair matches £15,000. The other
exchanges will be lucky to match £500. But here are some others.

www.betdaq.com

www.betsson.com

www.backandlay.com

www.ibetx.com

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 www.wbx.com

Guide to Betfair
Betfair is the exchange you are most likely to use. If you haven’t
registered you will need to click on the ‘Open an Account’ button in
the top right hand corner of the screen and fill out a registration
form. Don’t worry this will only take a minute or so. It is free.
If you have registered already, simply fill in your username and
password and click ‘Login’.

Next click on the ‘Sports’ tab to open up all the

available markets.

The front page will now change and will look

confusing at first but don’t worry we aren’t going
to take much notice of most of it.

The bit we are interested in is located on the

left hand side of the screen.

The left hand side of the front page will have a

list of all the different sports covered.

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 The list of sporting options will change to
show a list of dog races for the day, both in
the UK and Australia, sorted by time.
Simply scroll down and from the list of
races click on the race you are laying in.
Select the race by Time and Course.

Below we have the name of the dog in bold. The first three
columns of numbers after the dogs’ name show the odds for
backing the dog to win, with the best odds in the blue squares. You
have a choice of having 3 price columns or 1 by ticking the market
depth button in the top left corner of the page. You can also just
have the lay column should you wish.

The decimal figures above in blue are the odds and the figures in
pounds are the amount available to bet with. Basically this means

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someone else has offered to lay the dog at this price with the
amount of money shown below the price. They are waiting for
someone to accept their offer.
Ignore these for now as we are not backing the dogs.
The second set of three columns show the odds for the dogs losing
(i.e. lay bets). Again the best odds are highlighted in the pink
squares. As before, the decimal figures are the odds and the
figures in pounds are the amount available to bet with.
Basically this means someone else is requesting an opportunity to
bet a certain amount at their preferred odds and is waiting for an
offer to back the dog at that price. Click on the lowest odds (in the
pink square) for the dog you have selected to lay. This will usually
be the favourite.

The right hand side of the website will now change, showing the
dog’s name, the odds selected and asking for the backers stake as
follows:

You can change the odds to whatever price you are comfortable
offering. If someone is asking for 2.9 and you only want to offer
2.50 like the picture above, just change the amount in the
“Backers odds” box and then type in the amount you want to lay
the dog for in the ‘Backer’s Stake’ box and Betfair will automatically
work out your liability (i.e. The amount you stand to lose if the dog
wins).

For advice on what odds to set and the amount to stake please
see the chapters ‘Laying at the Right Price’ and ‘Using a Betting
Bank’ later in this manual.
Once you have done that click on submit in the bottom right hand
corner of the page. You will then be asked to confirm your bet.
Click on yes if you are happy with it. Once you are confident we
can switch this feature off to submit our lay bets faster.
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The screen will now change to show whether or not your bet has
been matched. If the bet has been matched, then the bet is placed
and you only have to wait for the results. If the bet is unmatched
you have several options:

• You may wait to see if someone else comes along who is

prepared to accept the odds you have specified.
• You can change the odds in order to match a backer who is
offering different odds.
• Or you can cancel the bet.

It is also possible for your bet to be part-matched. This is where

some of your stake has been matched with a backer, but some has
not. Using Betfair is relatively easy once you get used to it. If you
are still unsure of anything then Betfair offers comprehensive
online help.

For an easy to follow user guide simply go to the Betfair website,

click on the help menu and then on the ‘view our demo’ button.

There are also several programs designed to make your trading

much easier and faster and I highly recommend you get one. They
offer one click betting rather than the ten or so clicks it takes to
submit a bet on the Betfair and are generally much quicker at
getting your trades into the market, a vital tool in obtaining the best
price and really optimising your profits.

Below is the one I use and recommend.

BetTrader Pro from Racingtraders.

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 I strongly recommend you download the
BetTrader 4.0 program from
www.racingtraders.com . It is free to
download and free to use or for a very small
fee, you get the amazing ladder interface
which makes your trading extremely
efficient and streamlined. It connects
directly with betfair and the refresh rate is
far superior. You can place stop losses
which is vital to trading and the website has
dozens of easy to follow videos on how to
use the system. Once you have it, you will
wonder how you ever did without it.

It is a major part of my success and puts

me right at the front of the queue every time
when laying dogs which is crucial to
successful trading. Get it. Now.

The Dishlicker System

Unlike most systems you have come across we are not interested
in looking at the form of a dog whatsoever. There are literally a
hundred factors that affect the outcome of a dog race. Some
people spend hours and hours studying as many of these as
possible and still don't get results.

Form
The majority of the punters base everything on form. Anything from
80-90% of a price is going to be based on recent form.
This is no coincidence.
The bookmakers know that most of the money bet by punters is
based on form in some way. Further to this, TV and newspaper
tipsters are obsessed with form.

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You'll often hear a so-called expert race caller going on about a
dog that has great form. Punters hear this and it sways their
betting opinion. Due to this most punters will put their money on
the favourite. And lose! Remember favourites lose 70% of the time.

To Back or to Lay?
Yes, you read that correctly, favourites win less than a third of
races. Backing the favourite in every race makes a loss of just less
than 7%.

So laying the favourite in every race should mean a 7% profit,

right? No. Laying every favourite in every race makes a loss of
about 0.3%.

This can be attributed to two things:

1. Commission - On the exchanges you have to pay a 5%
commission on all winning bets. This figure can fall depending on
how much you bet on the exchanges. In time it is possible to have
a commission of just 2%.
2. Overpricing – The odds you have to offer on the greyhounds
with an exchange are on average around 20% higher than the
bookmakers offer.

In theory if you can keep your commission low and offer a price as
close to Starting Price (SP) as possible then you can profit from
laying all favourites.

However the profits wouldn't be high enough to justify it as a

system. So we need to add more criteria to make laying favourites
more profitable.

Statistically, there are certain types of races where laying the

favourites is very profitable. It is these races that we will be
focusing on.

This system doesn't require numerous steps of spending hours

reading form. Simply lay the favourites in the races I identify and
you will be profitable.
What races should I lay in?

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Greyhound races are usually categorised by the ability of the dog.

Graded Racing
The vast majority of dog races run at greyhound tracks worldwide
are known as 'graded races' and for the benefit of our system they
are divided into three race grade categories:-

• U.K. - Top Grade - (A1 - A3) equivalent to American grades (A,

AA, B) and Australian greyhound racing grades (1, 2). Many of
these top grade dogs will also compete in major race events.

• U.K. - Middle Grade - (A4 - A6) equivalent to American

greyhound grades (C, D) and Australian dog grades (3, 3/4, 4).
Many of these so called average middle-graded dogs, that
regularly run at some of the very best greyhound tracks may
often be the equal of 'A1' graded dogs running at perhaps
lesser not so good tracks.

• U.K. - Low Grade - (A7 - A11) equivalent to American dog

grades (E, F, and Maidens) and Australian grades (4/5, 5 and
Maidens). Most dogs begin or finish their racing career's in
these the lower race grades.

There are other types of racing grades that may take place during
a race meeting and these dog grade statistics are always
represented in the race formlines by a standard greyhound racing
prefix:
• (KC) = Kennel Championships,
• (KS) = Kennel Sweepstakes,
• (TC) = Trainer's Championships,
• (IT) = Intertrack Racing,
• (Hcp) = Handicap Racing and the very occasional
• (QS) = Quickstakes (2 or 3 semi-finals take place with the race
final being held at the same dog meeting.)
• (S) races for stayers over 6 bends or more.

Knowing the grade of a greyhound race is extremely important to

our laying system as it estimates the expected level of racing
performance and therefore implies the general race standard.

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I personally think, successfully predicting 'graded races' (GRs) will
invariably be more challenging than predicting 'open class races'
(ORs) as generally the Racing Manager grades the GR races very
closely, according to each dog's individual racing ability with only
very small differences in racetimes to choose between the runners.

So we quite simply leave the high quality dogs alone. The good
ones will win and win often with high strike rates. Bad for our
business.

Our system deals with A4 to A12 races only. If you really want to
trade on every dog race then we will deal with that strategy later.

Where does the money come from?

So, if there’s good money to be made laying favourites, why does
anyone back them in the first place?

All 'dog punters' when studying graded race form, will constantly
be asking themselves the same age old question: whether to back
a good dog 'lowered in class' running badly; or to back a not so
good dog 'raised in class' running well? "If only I had a crystal ball"
I hear them say!!

This is just one of many decisions that face all greyhound punters
around the world, when trying to predict the future outcomes of
tightly graded dog races. It is a losing battle!

It is these people who will accept your lay bets. They are guessing
and will usually follow the crowd and back the favourite. This is
exactly what we want them to do as we want to lay the favourite.

Money Management
All systems and all professionals will have losing
trades. They are as inevitable as the sun
coming up tomorrow. It is how we handle these
losses both financially and emotionally that
separates the professionals from the empty-
pocketed common punter.

Rumour tells us that only 2% of Betfair account

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holders are in profit and if you are reading this, you are possibly
not one of them. But you soon could be.

Most weeks you will face a few losing bets. But as the odds for our
winners will be very low, 2.00 to 4.00 they will not hurt our profits
too much over all. All this might seem confusing at first but after a
while you will be able to breeze through the day’s racing and put
on your bets in no time at all. You can expect an 80% strike rate
with this system or 8 winning bets out of 10.

We will lose the other two but the damage will not be too bad.
Remember laying dogs takes discipline so don't be tempted into
giving up if you experience a bad day. Bad days will happen but
with this system you are guaranteed many more good days than
bad.

This system has statistically proven profitable over the past year
and has shown great profits in the last 6 months of 2007 alone.
Used with the correct money management techniques and staking
plans it will keep your trading account ticking along nicely.

You may not become a millionaire doing this but it will certainly
save you from having to top up your account and therefore all your
other bets will be virtually free.

Win £100 per day and then stick it on England to win the World
Cup. Perhaps the Rugby World Cup would be your best bet there!
£700 per week is a great income for a few hours effort per day. Or
just make £500 and have 2 days off. Some days you will make
your money in less than an hour and the rest of the day is yours.

I strongly suggest you record every single trade for every day in a
spreadsheet with a graph showing your progress. Here is a real
graph starting with $100 and laying favourites in dog races.

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This was the result of 7 days work.
The red figures were the inevitable losses and you can see on the
graph winning and losing runs. This is an average of $3.76 per
race and if you do just 15 races a day (about 2 to 3 hours) we
made $478 in a week. So if you started with a bank of just $500
you would have made $2390. Do you earn that now for 3 hours
work a day?

Staking Plans

There are several to suggest but I won’t go into detail here as you
can just do an internet search on staking plans and get 100’s. I
only use and suggest one method. The most powerful word in the
professional traders’ vocabulary: Compounding!

Compounding plans come in a few varieties. The most popular is

the percent of running bank type plan. With this plan you will stake
each bet to lose a fixed percentage of your bank.

That number is 5%. So if you have a losing run and your bank
decreases below it’s starting size, then your stakes will decrease
with it. And if you have a winning run and your bank increases
above it’s initial size, then your stakes will increase.

The more you win, the higher your stakes but your RISK stays the
same at ALL times. Awesome!
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For example: if your bank is £100 and you are risking 5% of the
bank on each selection, then your first bet will be risking £5.

If that bet wins then your bank will increase. If it was an even-
money lay bet you will win £4.75 (after 5% commission) and your
bank will be £104.75. Your next lay will risk £5.23.

Believe it or not, but if you make just 3% of your bank per day it will
double in 24 days. FACT. So if you start with £100 and make just
3% per day for 24 days you will have £200. Next 24 days at 3% =
£400.

After 12 periods of 24 days making just 3% per day of your bank

you can have the following bank:
1 = £200
2 = £400
3 = £800
4 = £1,600
5 = £3,200
6 = £6,400
7 = £12,800
8 = £25,600
9 = £51,200
10 = £102,400
11 = £204,800
12 = £409,600

Now you won’t make that solely on Greyhounds as the liquidity

(volume of money) in the market is not great enough, but it shows
you just how powerful compounding is. USE IT. Everyday!

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Here is the current situation for January. As of January 15th 2008
we are attempting to convert $471.77 into $1100 using our system.
After a small loss on day one, we are well on target to reach our
goal. The wins are small but after 14 days we have moved to
$768.10. It is all relevant to scale, you may want to start with a
bigger bank than this. Or a smaller one, £50 will do. It is a great
way to save up and have fun doing it. Need a present for the wife?
Cost £1,000? Only have £400. Well make just 3% per day for 30
days and you have the money!
The opportunities are only limited by your desire and imagination.

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The System
The system itself is very simple. When used with the proper money
management it soon becomes quite impressive and profitable. In a
nutshell, we lay the favourite, within certain parameters.

Which dog to lay

We only lay favourites between 2.00 and 4.5. Research and testing
has shown that laying under 2.00 does show great returns when
the dog loses the race, but the fact we lose 5% of our bank when
one wins is too much to justify the risk. And the ones under 2.00
seem to win well above 30% of the time.

Which races to trade

We trade any race from A4 to A11 at any track. These races are
very tightly graded and any dog can win and quite often the rough
outsider of the field gets up. The favourites have a very low
winning ratio in these races so it is these we will target. There are
two ways to attack them. Laying and trading. We will start with the
laying.

Laying the Favourite

After selecting the race you wish to lay a dog, it is best to wait until
about 2 minutes before the race and see what the prices are doing.
The closer you get to the race start time, the more accurate the
prices will be so leave it as long as possible.

About 1 minute before the race we will usually know which dog is
the clear favourite. You then lay this dog, remembering the money
management rules. We lay it for 5% of our bank. So if we have a
starting bank of £500, we are only prepared to lose £25. If the dog
is paying 3.00 (2/1) we can lay it for £12.50.

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If the dog loses, we will win £11.89 after tax and our next risk will
be 5% of £511.89 or £25.59.
If the dog wins, we will lose £25.00

Divide the RISK figure by the price of the dog and that gives you
your lay amount. So if the next dog were also 3.00 we would lay for
£12.80.
So to make it clear.
Take 5% of your bank. This is your RISK.
Divide the price of the dog by the RISK. This is your BET.
Betfair will do the second part for you when you enter the bet but it
is faster if you already know the amount.

Make sure you have selected the liability button and not the payout
button to get the correct figure. The button is highlighted in blue in
the screenshot below.

It shows you the liability so just adjust the bet to match the risk and
away you go.

Trading the Favourite

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They say nothing in life is free. That was before Betfair came
along. Now it is often possible to get a free bet and eliminate our
risk. Let me show you how.
Here we see the movement of the
price during a live event. Once you get
the ability to trade, these are enormous
opportunities to make money. Looks
like the stock market right? But you
don’t wait months or years for the price
to move. These swings happen in the
space of 90 minutes for Football, 6
hours for a days cricket, or can be
minutes apart in a tennis match. In this
example if you had backed the runner
at 4.00 for £ 100 and then layed it at
2.00 for $100 even though it went
much lower, you would have made a
£200 free bet.

Quite often the price of a dog will move out as the race gets closer
and more people try to lay it. It will quite often move out a full point
or two. So if we LAYED the dog at 3.00 and the price has drifted
out to 4.00 we can now BACK the dog at 4.00 and create a free
bet. Simply back the dog for £12.50 and the following screenshot
shows what happens.

We now have a situation that should this dog win the race, we
have to pay out £25.00. But if it also means we collect £37.50 from
our back bet, meaning we make £12.50 profit.

We can also create a situation where we make a profit no matter

which dog wins the race. Taking the same dog in the same race,

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we have layed him at 3.00 for £12.50. We would now back him for
£9.37 and create the following situation.

Here we have an after tax, risk free,

guaranteed win, no matter which dishlicker
wins the race. Before tax this would be £3.13.
This is called “greening up”. We have an all
green book. Perfect! It may not seem much but
you do that five times a day for seven days and
you have doubled your £100 bank without
risking a penny.

When we lay a favourite before the race, it may not stay the
favourite for very long. The price may drift and another dog is now
the favourite. You can now do one of three things.
• Leave the original lay bet on.
• Trade out of it and take the free bet or green up.
• Trade out of it and then lay the new favourite
I never do the first one if the dog layed is no longer the favourite. I
always green up and if I have time, lay the new favourite.
Sometimes they drift in the last few seconds and there is only time
to back the dog, green up and they jump. I am happy with this as I
make a profit no matter what dog wins. Here are some
screenshots of dog races I traded for a “can’t lose” situation.

We make $10.26 no matter who wins.

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Another $9.20 in the bin below. You can do this all day!

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An easy $5.80. It all adds up.

What price do we lay?

We only lay favourites between 2.00 and 4.5. Research and testing
has shown that laying under 2.00 does show great returns when
the dog loses the race, but the fact we lose 5% of our bank when
one wins is too much to justify the risk. The risk versus reward ratio
is against us. A lot of dogs that start the race under 2.00 win the
race. So we leave them alone. The same goes for dogs over 4.50.
The amount we win for risking our 5% is not worth us taking it on.
Just let the race go and wait for the next one. Remember the
golden rule. This is not about winning money. This is about
preservation of capital. If we lose that, we can't make money.

In the long run you are much better off trading and winning lots of
risk free sure bets that are smaller than winning larger amounts
and then losing some and then winning again. The commission
eats away at profits. Let me give you an example.

Lets look at 10 races. About 1 days trading for me.

Race Profit Commission Profit/loss Commission
1 £5.00 £0.25 £20.00 £1.00
2 £5.00 £0.25 -£10.00 £0.00
3 £5.00 £0.25 £20.00 £1.00
4 £5.00 £0.25 -£10.00 £0.00
5 £5.00 £0.25 £20.00 £1.00
6 £5.00 £0.25 -£10.00 £0.00
7 £5.00 £0.25 £20.00 £1.00
8 £5.00 £0.25 -£10.00 £0.00
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9 £5.00 £0.25 £20.00 £1.00
10 £5.00 £0.25 -£10.00 £0.00
Totals £50.00 £2.50 £50.00 £5.00
Net Profit £47.50 £45.00

If you look at the table above you see that Trader X who trades for
a living makes 10 small profits of £5.00. He pays 5% commission
on all winning trades totalling £2.50 for his 10 races. Layer X only
lays for his living. He does the same 10 races and when he wins
makes 4 times the profit of the Trader.

But of course his commission is 4 times higher as well. And when

he loses, he pays no commission. So over the 10 races, they both
made £50.00 but after commission, the Trader pays 100% less
commission than the Layer. Let’s take that to the next level.

Professional traders can make £50,000 per year. So can

professional layers and bookmakers. The trader makes £1000 per
week for 50 weeks with 2 weeks holiday. His 5% commission for a
year = £2,500.

The Layer also makes £50,000 in the same ratio of wins and
losses as above. He pays £5,000 in commission to Betfair for the
same races.

So this proves that lots of small wins is better than big wins and big
losses even though the profit appears to be the same. If you get an
opportunity to trade out of a race, I suggest you take it.

Even if you take a less serious approach and make just £5,000
doing this in a year, you will be £250 better off at least and that will
come in handy at car rego time!

Conclusion

So that is the Dishlicker laying and trading system. If you stick to

the rules you will make small consistent profits that will keep your
bank ticking over for those other larger speculative bets we all like
to make from time to time or just keep growing the bank and
double it every 24 days like I do.

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Use the 5% rule and compounding on all your bets and trades and
you will see a massive improvement in your profits.

Good Luck and happy laying. Below are some diversions from the
system for those that wish to trade every dog race on the planet
and some Golden Rules to being a successful professional. They
may look familiar because they are universal rules to making,
keeping and not losing your “hard earned”. Use them and you can
succeed. Dismiss them at your peril.

If you have any questions at all about the system, please drop me
a line at [email protected] and I will be happy to help.

Alternative trading methods.

Favourites under £2.00

As the system does not allow us to lay dogs under £2.00 what can
we do? We simply remove that dog from the race. I would lay the
next lowest priced dog in the race provided it is still under our 4.50
cap. Some of these may still win but it will be rare and not as often
as the odds on shot. So if we are going to lose our 5% on this race
it may as well be 10% of the time rather than the 60% of the time
we lose it when the odds on shot wins.

Races outside our rules.

A1 – A3 races and Stayers races are all avoided by our system but
if you want to trade them, I would suggest the following.
• In A1 to A3 lay the second favourite.
• In S class races lay the second or third favourite only.
Do not lay above 6.00 for any dogs.
I do trade HC races but only ever lay the 1 and 2 dog.

The reasons
Below is my profit and loss from October 14th 2007 to 16th
November 2007. $2251.58 for one months work over 6 different
sports. That is almost $30,000.00 per year, not bad for a couple of
hours a day. If I went full time (I still have a regular job) the

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possibilities are endless. You will notice two races in the shot
below not in our “race range”. You will notice I traded out of these
races for tiny amounts and did not lay the favourite. This is
allowed. In the S2 races we traded the first one for $4.25 and layed
the third favourite in the race we won $62.12. In the two HC races
we layed the 1 dog.

The reason we select certain races only.

Below are the results from two days trading in November 2007.
They give a perfect example of why we have the rules in place.
The Blue and Red boxes are races the system does NOT trade
and you will see why.
If we look at the 8 races that qualify for our system we made
£272.54 for an average win of £34.06 per race with no losses.

For the 12 races that don’t qualify for our system we still made
money but only made £57.28 for an average of £4.77 per race.
This includes our two losses of £53 and £69. This is still a profit but
a significant difference.
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Combined for the 20 races we traded, the average win drops from
£34.06 to £16.49 per race. So we are 100% better off NOT trading
or laying Open Races or Grades A1 to A3. The proof is there to
see.

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7 Golden Rules of successful trading
Rule 1 – DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE, DISCIPLINE

It does not matter what type of trading activity you get involved in it
may be Poker, Roulette, Horse Racing, Soccer, Craps or Pigeon
Racing. If you are entering into your trading transactions without
DISCIPLINE then you are sure to come out on the losing side.

Discipline in trading takes many forms, perhaps the most obvious

discipline factor is that of avoiding chasing losses. But there is so
much more to using discipline in your trading that will help you.

I want you to take a hard look at your trading activity. If you have
never traded before do you have the discipline to stick to hard and
fast rules whatever the circumstances?

There is a living to be made trading no matter who you are. So if

you feel you have discipline read on and learn how you can make
some real money. If you have no discipline and no intention of
learning any then I must advise you to only bet what you can afford
to lose because there is a 98% chance you will do just that.

Rule 2 – MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL

Managing your bankroll is a key attribute to being a successful
trader. Your bankroll is a sum of money you set aside purely for
trading purposes.

It should not be money you cannot afford to lose and it definitely

should not be borrowed money from friends, family or even worse
the rent or mortgage money. One thing is certain if you are a trader
you will lose a certain amount of your transactions. It is impossible
to win 100% of the time just as it is impossible for a doctor to save
100% of lives – losses are inevitable.

Most people think that the way to great riches is winning money,
this is incorrect. The big secret is to protect your capital at all
costs. You will never go broke taking a profit, but you will go broke
taking capital losses. Never risk more than 5% of your capital on
any trade and you will give yourself the best chance of being a
success.

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Managing your capital correctly means that these losing
transactions get swallowed up in the whole big picture but you do
not notice them in the long run. No single transaction should take
more than 5% of your starting bank. Failure to manage your bank
correctly leads to one thing and one thing only – Losing it.

Most punters have no structure to their betting activity. They place

their bets without thought to how much they may lose, just how
much they are trying to win. You need to have a goal for every
transaction and just like real life that goal needs to be realistic and
achievable.

Once you hit your goal you can re-evaluate up your limits if
necessary and set a new goal.

Rule 3 – COPING WITH SWINGS

As stated in rule 2, it is inevitable to have losses and losing days if
you are going to trade. Most traders who do it for recreation will
have these every day, whereas people like me, who trade to make
a living keep these instances down to a minimum. How you cope
with losses will play a huge part in how successful you will be as a
trader.

If you have a staking plan in place you must stick to it.

Never think after a run of losses you are “due” and then risk more
of your bankroll. You will end up going broke. And fast.

Chasing losses is the surest way to go broke and casinos, sports

books, bookmakers and poker players love these sorts of gamblers
in their establishment or at their table. They are counting the
currency as soon as this type of gambler walked in the room.

As well as coping with losses, walking away winning is equally

important. It is too easy to have one more bet and think you will
never lose. So many good profits get blown apart just chasing a
few more pounds.

Having the discipline to stick to your plan and cope with the swing
being up or down is a major factor in gambling with success. No
one likes to lose but you have to learn to walk away, one thing is
always certain, another day will soon appear

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Traders can fixate that every session must be a winning one. This
is impossible to achieve, so deal with it.

Rule 4 - SPECIALISING
I take my trading very seriously – it is after all my source of
income. One thing allowed me to move my trading onto a
professional level. I specialise.

Just like a surgeon will specialise in which body part he operates

on, I only have one area in which I trade and that enables me to
make a decent living.

I have seen punters over the years ago bet on everything that
came on the screens, Horse racing, Dog racing, Golf, Football,
Virtual Racing you name it, they seem to be writing a slip out every
two minutes and never seemed to be collecting.

By specialising, I understand a lot more about what I am doing I

can have a lot fewer, more focused trades or investments as I refer
to them. Once again look at your trading patterns, what you trade
on, why do you trade on it and in which area could you specialise.

Rule 5 – RESEARCH YOUR INVESTMENTS

Once you decide in which area you wish to specialise, it is time to
research your market and where you will make your investments.
You can then trade in a more focused manner.

The power of computers and the Internet have made obtaining

information so easy that in a matter of minutes you can find out as
much information as you require about your chosen market.

This is an absolute necessity if you wish to take your trading to the

next level. Again it is all about how disciplined you are to research
your area so that you can place your money with the greatest
chance of success.

Rule 6 – KEEP RECORDS

It is absolutely vital that if you wish to take your trading onto the
next level you keep accurate records of all your activity. We have

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all heard the stories of the gamblers who only tell you of their
winners and we all know that they are the losers.

It is essential that you reconcile your accounts and trading activity

daily. If you are following this advice you will already have reduced
your number of trades because you are betting in a specialised
market.

I recommend opening a separate bank account for your trading

activity so that you can reconcile easily without the weekly
shopping appearing halfway down the statement. Once you get
into this habit it soon becomes very easy and second nature.

The other main area that you can use your record keeping for is to
look at your good spells and bad spells (using graphs is one way of
doing this) and make adjustments to your betting activity.

You may notice a certain bet fails time and time again where
another one is successful so you can adjust your bets accordingly
or narrow your bets down to even more specialised fields. When I
started out I found this task extremely useful for setting my criteria
when to place my investments.

Horse racing sports books love betting slips with 3, 4, 5, 6

sometimes even 7 or 8 horses on them. It is hard enough to pick
one winner, let alone that number. These bets come off once in a
blue moon so no matter how tempting the accumulative odds, once
you have researched your market, stick to single bets.

These are the bets that truly make the bookmakers rich and are
the source of so many hard luck stories, “if only that 4th horse had
won, I would have had thousands”. The odds compilers know the
true odds of such bets and trust me they are not what you will get
paid out.

Rule 7 – DON’T GAMBLE AND DRINK

Never ever! That’s it.

Well I hope you found the above knowledgeable and that it adds to
your trading experience. As a professional trader I believe a lot of

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the above to be common sense but I am aware that when money
is involved, common sense can go out of the window.

Lastly I just want to say that anything is possible if you put your
mind to it. Except drinking and gambling!

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