Scribd
Upload
107 views

Statsch4 5

The document discusses the probability of "at least one" event occurring and conditional probability. It provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the probability of at least one defective item occurring in a sample, using the complement rule. It also gives an example to show how to calculate a conditional probability - the probability that a subject uses drugs given they tested positive on a drug test. It warns that confusing conditional probabilities with their inverse is called the "confusion of the inverse."

Uploaded by

Anonymous P1iMib
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
107 views

Statsch4 5

The document discusses the probability of "at least one" event occurring and conditional probability. It provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the probability of at least one defective item occurring in a sample, using the complement rule. It also gives an example to show how to calculate a conditional probability - the probability that a subject uses drugs given they tested positive on a drug test. It warns that confusing conditional probabilities with their inverse is called the "confusion of the inverse."

Uploaded by

Anonymous P1iMib
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 2

4-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Complements: The Probability

Conditional Probability of “At Least One”

Probability of “at least one”:


Find the probability that among several trials, we ™ “At least one” is equivalent to “one or more.”
get at least one of some specified event.

Conditional probability: ™ The complement of getting at least one item of a


Find the probability of an event when we have particular type is that you get no items of that
additional information that some other event has type.
already occurred.

Finding the Probability Example


of “At Least One”
Topford supplies X-Data DVDs in lots of 50, and
they have a reported defect rate of 0.5% so the
To find the probability of at least one of probability of a disk being defective is 0.005. It
something, calculate the probability of follows that the probability of a disk being good is
0.995.
none and then subtract that result from 1.
That is,
11
What is the probability of getting at least one
defective disk in a lot of 50?
P(at least one) = 1 – P(none).

Example – continued Conditional Probability


A conditional probability of an event is a
What is the probability of getting at least one probability obtained with the additional
defective disk in a lot of 50?
information that some other event has already
occurred. P( B | A) denotes the conditional
P ( at least 1 defective disk in 50 ) = probability of event B occurring, given that
1 − P ( all 50 disks are good ) = event A has already occurred, and it can be
found by dividing the probability of events A
1 − ( 0.995 ) =
50
and B both occurring by the probability of
event A:
1 − 0.778 = 0.222
P( A and B)
P( B | A) =
P( A)
Intuitive Approach to Example
Conditional Probability
Refer to the table to find the probability that a
subject actually uses drugs, given that he or she
had a positive test result.
The conditional probability of B given A can
Positive Drug Test Negative Drug Test
be found by assuming that event A has
Subject Uses Drugs 44 (True Positive) 6 (False Negative)
occurred and then calculating the probability
Subject Does
that event B will occur. Not Use Drugs
90 (False Positive) 860 (True Negative)

Example - continued Confusion of the Inverse


Positive Drug Test Negative Drug Test
Subject Uses Drugs 44 (True Positive) 6 (False Negative)

Subject Does
90 (False Positive) 860 (True Negative)
Not Use Drugs To incorrectly believe that P ( A | B) and
P ( B | A) are the same, or to incorrectly use
P ( subject uses drugs | subject tests positive ) = 22 one value for the other, is often called
P ( subject uses drugs and subject tests positive ) confusion of the inverse.
=
P ( subject tests positive )
44
1000 = 44 = 0.328
134 134
1000

You might also like