Merger & Acquisition Approach
Merger & Acquisition Approach
• The purpose of this module is to allow new ACs and Consultants to:
2
XYZ M&A Introduction
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
3
XYZ M&A Introduction
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
4
XYZ M&A Trends
Drivers of M&A Activity
Macro-
Strategic Financial Other
economics
5
XYZ M&A Trends
M&A Activity - U.S. vs. Europe
European and US M&A activity is experiencing similar positive trends.
800 $759
CAGR
$B 700 $641 (1992-1997)
500 US 41%
$434
400 $343
$361
$339
$295
300 $265
$241 $230
$220
$193
200 $145
$161 $163$157
$137$136 $133
$112
$91
100 $52
0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Note: Transaction Value (including Net Debt of Target). Excludes split-offs. Europe
includes 50 major countries 6
Source: SDC
XYZ M & A Trends
M&A Activity
• M&A activity has grown rapidly in nominal dollar terms, peaking in the U.S. in the
late 1980s, and then matching those levels last year
• The ferocious merger activity of the late 1980s was driven in large part by the “easy
money” afforded by the junk bond market. This resulted in huge, often
unsubstantiated, premiums being paid for companies without regard to the value
creation opportunities presented (or not presented, as the case may be) by the
operations/underlying business of the target
• Growth in merger activity since 1992 has coincided with the economy’s recovery
from recession
• Recent M&A activity benefiting from:
– extended economic health with little recessionary pressure on horizon
– a resulting corporate demand for growth
– increase in international M&A activity as companies pursuing global strategies
• Since late 1997, U.S. and European markets have experienced the resurgence of
junk bonds to facilitate the execution of deals getting larger and larger
7
XYZ M&A Trends
M&A Activity by Country 1996/97
US market dominates the global M&A activity.
$1,200B
$1,028
1997
1996
$1,000B
$800B
$687
Billions of Dollars
$600B
$400B
$215
$170
$152
$200B
$88
$81
$67
$57
$42
$38
$37
$34
$22
$19
$14
$0B
USA UK Germanic France Benelux Scandanavia Italy Spain
Countries
Percent
change: 50% 41% 110% 31% 50% 14% 79% 57%
200
2,000
100
0 0
9
Source: SDC ( March 98)
XYZ M&A Trends
Multiples Paid for Acquisitions
Over the last five years, the prices paid for acquisitions have been increasing, and
reinforces the need for in-depth due diligence and analysis to ensure a fair price.
10
9 8.6
Average
7.8
EBIT 8 7.4 7.2 7
Multiple 7 6.5
6.1
6 5.4
Financial Buyers
5
Strategic Buyers
4
0
1988-89 1992-93 1995 1996
10
Sources: The BUYOUTS Yearbook, XYZ Analysis.
XYZ M&A Trends
Acquisition Success Rates
The majority of acquisitions have been deemed failures.
80% 75%
70% 67%
60%
50% 50%
Percent of Total
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Survey of XYZ & Harvard London
CFOs Company Business School Business
Study School
Notes: Failure defined as earnings less than cost of capital and/or subsequently divested. 11
XYZ M&A Trends
Common Reasons for Failure
• Poor strategic fit
–combination does not provide competitive advantage
–lack of understanding of the business
• Overpay
–imperfect information/wrong valuation
–too optimistic in forecasts/synergies
–unforeseen industry downturn/emerging technology
–auction environment; failure to set/stick to „walk away‟ price
–CEO/management ego
revenue growth vs. profitability
emotion vs. analysis
• Poor post acquisition integration
–inadequate planning
–failure to exploit revenue/margin potential
–disrupted relations with customers, employers and suppliers
–culture clash; failure to involve „acquired‟ people
13
XYZ M&A Introduction
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
14
XYZ M&A Principles
Guiding Principles
XYZ believes that a clear and disciplined approach to (1 of 2)
the acquisition process is vital to ensure success.
Proactive Strategic
Screening
Thinking
Principles: • Acquisitions are made to improve • Look for all companies that
the strategic position of existing potentially strengthen the
businesses or add to the core corporation
competencies of the corporation • Don't allow a "transaction"
• Assess impact of acquisitions on mentality to dominate the process
long-term shareholder value
• Use acquisition as a vehicle to
accelerate growth in key business
units
Activities: • Define business segments • Look for targets that present best fit
• Diagnose key competencies in terms of:
and any skill gaps – relatedness
• Analyze market dynamics – impact on market position
• Study cost of acquisition • Examine key success factors of
versus organic growth potential targets
• Examine competitive position of
client vs. competitive bidders
15
XYZ M&A Principles
Guiding Principles
XYZ believes that a clear and disciplined approach to (2 of 2)
the acquisition process is vital to ensure success.
16
XYZ M&A Principles
Strategy and M&A
Acquisitions at both the corporate and business unit level need to be thought
of as an integral part of a company's growth strategy.
• Corporate objectives
– growth and financial targets
– competitive arena
• Corporate strategy
– strategic position
– management of resources
Growth through
• Business unit objectives corporate acquisitions
– business definition
– growth and financial targets
• Business unit strategy
– strategic position
– key success factors
– sustainable competitive advantage
Growth through
business unit
Organic growth acquisitions
17
XYZ M&A Principles
Strategic Framework
The focus of strategic M&A activity should be in areas where there is the highest
value creation opportunity as well as the strongest parenting advantage.
High
Focus
Value
Creation
Opportunity
Low
Low High
Parenting Advantage
“Is value to our client higher than value to other parents?”
18
XYZ M&A Principles
M&A Value Creation Opportunities
M&A value can arise from generating the full value of an undervalued entity
or by adding value to under performing assets.
19
XYZ M&A Principles
Critical Issues
XYZ assimilates the strategic process with
acquisitions by focusing on four key areas.
20
XYZ M&A Principles
Success Criteria - Diagnostic Tool
The ability to improve the strategic position of the acquirer, and grow
or complement its existing competencies are keys to success.
Growth >
RMS 10%
1.5-1.0x Growth 5-
10%
Growth <5%
RMS
<0.5x
21
XYZ M&A Principles
Success and Market Share
Acquisitions that increased market share
substantially were consistently more successful. Incidence
of success
Incidence
of outright
80% failure
73%
70%
70%
61%
58%
60%
50%
43%
Percent
40% 35%
30%
18% 19% 18%
20%
10%
3%
0%
< 5% 5-10% 10-25% 25-50% 50%+
0.1
5.0%
0.0
0.0%
(5.0%)
(10.0%)
(0.1)
24
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
28
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Key Activities
XYZ's approach to acquisitions follows a series of key steps.
29
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
M&A Value Chain
XYZ has considerable experience in the different skill sets needed at
different stages in the acquisition process.
Acquisition
Due Diligence Valuation Integration
Screening
Objective: • Identify potential candidates • Make better decisions • Understand full strategic • Implement strategic vision for
which present best fit in upfront value of acquisition merger that gives direction and
terms of: • Provide agenda for post- candidate impetus for change
– relatedness acquisition change • Definitive actions and role
– impact on market • Improve success in closing definitions to speed integration
position deal process
XYZ Activities: • Industry profile • Business/strategic review • Quantify current operating • Pre-planning
• Target screening – market trends value, stand alone – combined cash flows
• Target approach – customers and suppliers operating improvements, • Transition plan
– competitors and potential synergies • Cost reduction
– costs, technology • Revenue enhancement
– valuation/full potential
assessment
Common • Drawing up incomplete list of • Non-identification of "deal • Ignore market dynamics •Reluctance to interfere in
Pitfalls: candidates breaker" issues and competitor impact on operations of acquiree
• Use of screen process to • Misunderstanding of cost future cash flows
develop a strategy savings and upside • Taking management
opportunities projections at face value
30
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
XYZ and Other Advisors' Role
XYZ provides a neutral, third-party view and analysis on the primary strategic
and financial issues.
Acquisition
Due Diligence Valuation Integration
Screening
Investment Banks: • Comb for potential • In tandem with • Value based on prices of • Little or no direct input in
acquisition candidates based accountants, analyze comparable businesses post-merger activities
on availability financial projections based recently bought or sold
• Utilize contacts to build a on managerial input • Multiple of earnings/cash
wide list of potential targets flow, assets
Accounting Firms*: • Look for potential acquisition • Limited external research • Value based on prices of • Little or no direct input in
candidates based on – largely dependent on comparable businesses post-merger activities
availability managerial projections recently bought or sold
• Use contacts to build list of • Construct a basic DCF
potential targets model
XYZ's Role: • Determine targets based • Analyze quality of • Construct a discounted • Active involvement in
on corporate objectives customer and supplier cash flow model that transition plan, cost
and strategies base values stand alone, reduction and revenue
• Identify acquisitions that • Look for potential cost operating improvements enhancement
enable the acquirer to: savings and upside and potential synergies opportunities
– penetrate new markets synergies • Provide a reality check on • "Hands-on" driver of
– acquire capabilities • Understand market market valuations change process to realize
– gain scale advantage dynamics to better full value of merged entity
– improve relative project market and
market position company growth
objectives
Other
document-
ation
60%
40% • Support as
Lawyers • needed
Legal Due
diligence
32
848704a2d01-19
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Acquisition Screening
Finding potentially attractive targets is the critical first step in an M&A process.
Acquisition
Due Diligence Valuation Integration
Screening
33
848704a2d01-20
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Acquisition Screening
Inadequate screening of candidates is commonplace. (Common Mistakes)
34
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Candidate Screening Process
XYZ's approach to screening involves careful analysis of the market,
competitors and the target.
35
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Screening Criteria
The XYZ approach to screening evaluates the market dynamics
and the target's performance and fit with the acquirer. Partial examination
Complete examination
Broad
Fine
Thorough
36
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Due Diligence
XYZ goes beyond financial analysis to assess fully the competitive
position of the target, and identify "deal breaker" issues .
Acquisition
Due Diligence Valuation Integration
Screening
38
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Typical Due Diligence Issues
(1 of 2)
A well-designed due diligence process involves answering a series of key
questions.
Business What business is the target in? Who are the current and
Definition: potential competitors?
Market Overview: Is this an attractive industry from size, growth, supplier power,
regulatory environment, business concentration and profitability
perspectives? Is this the right time to buy?
Key Success How do you make money in this business today and in the
Factors: future?
Customer What are key purchase criteria and how does our target perform
Evaluations: relative to competitors? How might this change in the future?
39
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Typical Due Diligence Issues
(2 of 2)
Operations: How well managed is the business? Where can the company
improve margins and returns?
40
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Typical Due Diligence Activities
Understanding of market dynamics, strategic fit, and company performance
requires an in-depth external and internal review.
41
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Valuation
XYZ's valuation process quantifies the full strategic value of an acquisition to
ensure that the client can price with comfort and confidence.
Acquisition
Due Diligence Valuation Integration
Screening
• Development of conservative case • How much is the target worth • How much is the target worth • Can we afford it?
requirements provides basis for to the seller? to us? • Does the increase risk make
analyzing debt capacity sense?
44
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Valuation Potential Synergies
A key component in the valuation process is to quantify, as best as possible,
any upside opportunities on both the revenue and cost side.
Bottom-Line
Improvement
Cost Reduction
(“Hard synergies”)
Revenue Enhancement
Variable Fixed
(“Soft” Synergies)
• Examination of sales • Purchasing • Manufacturing
distribution channels • Labor productivity • Sales & Marketing
• Product cross-selling • Manufacturing efficiency • Distribution
• Other benefits •G & A
• Consumer and trade
spending efficiencies
• Transportation efficiency
45
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Integration
XYZ can assist in the integration process and maximize the value of the target.
Acquisition
Due Diligence Valuation Integration
Screening
46
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Importance of Integration
The ability to successfully integrate acquired companies is ranked
the most important factor influencing acquisition success.
100%
90%
80%
Degree of Importance
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Ability to Evaluation Management Prior Compatibility Price
integrate of abilities of experience of paid
company acquisition company making management
candidate acquired acquisitions styles
• Early planning
• Take control swiftly
• Constant communication
• Ensure retention of key managers
• Aggressive sharing of corporate vision
• Respect for people and culture
• Adopt merger principles
– fact-based and fair decision making
– objectivity
– two-way communication
48
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Integration - Develop Short - and Long-Term Objectives
Long-term objectives
Short-term objectives
49
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Typical Timeline
Integration is a complex process that must be done
quickly to produce tangible results.
(weeks) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
• Preplanning 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
– future cash flows
– industry analysis
– due diligence
• Strategy
• Transition Plan
• Communication Plan
• Culture Integration
• Finance Plan
– debt structure
– capex
– compensation
• Cost Reduction
– distribution – purchasing
– production – sales
– overhead
• Revenue Enhancement Plan
– cross-selling
– cross-marketing
50
XYZ M&A XYZ Approach
Integration - Develop Short - and Long-Term Objectives
The acquisition premium paid can only be justified by making swift
changes. Yet there is a reluctance to interfere in the management and
operations of the target.
Real/perceived
performance shortfall
Acquiree morale declines The "hands-off" doom loop Acquirer becomes impatient
and attrition increases and storms acquiree
51
XYZ M&A Introduction
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
52
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
Screening/ Due Diligence
(1 of 2)
53
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
Screening/ Due Diligence
(2 of 2)
54
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
Search Criteria
Along with the client, XYZ developed a set of criteria with
which to evaluate different industries.
Information Output Companies that Competitor Prepress Another
Capture, and Devices Purchase Industries Customers Prepress
Potential Industries Dissemination Computer Industry
Components,
Add Value, and
Remarket
Recording products X X X
Duplication products X X X X X
Data enhancement/ X X X X X
manipulation/editing devices
Data management (storage and X X X X
retrieval) devices
Transmission originators X X
Transmission carriers/controllers X X
Transmission receivers ("dumb') X
Intelligent digital processing X X X X
systems
Interactive digital systems X
Office automation/high potential X
customers
55
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
In-depth Screening
After selection of the criteria, each industry was analyzed to determine its
attractiveness and potential fit with Prepress's existing business.
56
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)
(1 of 2)
The MRI industry was selected based on its attractiveness and potential fit
with Prepress.
Industry Attractiveness:
Market Size: – $1.4B, worldwide (second largest medical imaging segment)
Growth rate: – 9.1% (fastest growing segment)
Systems – Value-added system, but most manufacturers just sell component
orientation:
Customers: – Medical market
Competition: – Fragmented - over 200 equipment suppliers worldwide
– Major players in X-ray, CT, SPECT, and PET do not dominate MRI
Industry
trends/dynamics: – ROS historically 9%, weak 3% now
– Highly competitive with intensified price cutting
– Anticipate industry consolidation and merging of manufacturing,
product development, and distribution functions
Attractive
57
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)
(2 of 2)
The MRI industry was selected based on its attractiveness and potential fit
with Prepress.
Prepress Value-added Proposition:
Similarity to – Same workflow
pre-press: – Similar manufacturing (value-added resale of high-technology
components linked by proprietary software and customer circuit
boards or chips)
Linkage to – Color imaging becoming increasingly valued system feature
other – Signifies major move into medical imaging market
industries: – Complements current client printer medical market strategy
– Entry vehicle to data storage industry
– No linkage to non-medical/other markets
Prepress – System similarity (modular design, user-friendly, upgradeable, high
synergies: quality)
– Sales process similarity (system sell, proven ROI benefits)
– Customer need similarity (high resolution images, low maintenance,
strong price-value relationship)
Attractive
58
XYZ M&A Prepress
MRI: Market Segment Competitors
Industry segments were classified and measured to identify potential targets.
$100M
$80M
Total: $1.4B
$550M $500M $150M Players:
100%
A
Estimated
Percent of B
1993 80 C
Market % I
G
(1993 D
Dollars)
F H E
60 I F
% E E
H
G
H
C G
H
40 H
D I
% G
E I
Others
B G
C
D
20 F
% C
B B
A E
B
A
A
0%
OB/GYN
Peripheral
vascular
Other
Radiology Cardiology
59
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
MRI: Industry Dynamics
The MRI market was then examined further in order to identify opportunities.
Attractive Unattractive
60
XYZ M&A Case Example - Prepress
MRI: Target Acquisition Candidates
After the creation of a market map, individual companies were
assessed for their viability as an acquisition.
Viable
Acquisition Not Viable
Candidate
61
XYZ M&A Introduction
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
62
XYZ M&A Case Example - Sand
Due Diligence/Valuation
Client: • A UK-based mining and minerals division of a
diversified company
Situation: • Acquirer has limited opportunities for internal
growth and is seeking growth through acquisition
Complication: • Target ("Ferret") purchased a divested division
from the client several years ago. Initial
hypothesis is that the target is a good acquisition
at the right price
Recommendation: • Industrial sand division was divided into 5
segments by end-user. Based on growth rates in
individual segments, target firm was valued at
approximately $100MM
XYZ • Market growth projections
activities: • Market share determination
• Assessment of possible synergies with acquiring firm
• Competitor analysis
• Analysis of business expansion opportunities
• Independent EBITDA forecast
Result: • A competitor bid was accepted
63
XYZ M&A Case Example - Sand
Industry Overview
Every market segment has been volatile. Only the frac segment has grown
significantly, but it is still below its 1985 peak.
14000
CAGR
12000 (1970-1993)
Volume ('000s Metric Tons)
Glass 0.1%
10000
8000
4000
Abrasives 1.3%
2000
Frac 8.5%
0 Fillers -5.6%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
64
Manufacturers
Extraction Processing Margin Distribution
End-User Price
Foundry ManufctresMargin D
i
st
ri
but
i
on $40
Whole
Extracion
Procesing
grain:
Foundry $150-250
E
x
t
ra
ct
i
on P
r
oc
es
s
in
g D
i
st
ri
but
i
on
ManufctresMargin
Resin coated:
Frac E
x
t
ra
ct
i
on P
r
oc
es
s
in
g M
a
n
u
M
f
a
a
c
r
g
t
u
i
n
r
er
s
D
i
st
ri
but
i
on $20-25
Whole Grain:
Frac Resin M
a
nu
f
act
ur
er
s $160-240
E
x
t
ra
ct
i
on P
r
oc
es
s
in
g Mar
gi
n D
i
st
ri
but
i
on
coated:
0
% 2
0
% 4
0
% 6
0
% 8
0
% 1
0
0%
Others
Ferret
Others
Norton/Alcoa
s Other
Fairmount Minerals
Percent Ferret Genstar $570M
Ferret
of Total Others The Morie Co.
Foster
Dixiez
Unimin
80% U.S.
Ferret Silica
Stanblast
Ferret Other
Oglebay Norton Oglebay
Norton Unimin
The Morie Co.
Borden
60% Borden Other
Carbo Ceramics
U.S. Silica The Morie Co. Mining
U.S. Silica
Reed Minerals
40%
Unimin In-House
resin U.S.
Ferret
coated Silica U.S. Silica
20% Unimin Unimin
Unimin
The
Morie Co
Fairmount
Minerals Ferret
0%
Coal Slag
Coated
Resin
Fillers and
Extenders
Slag
Sand
Copper
Silica
Performance
Ceramics
Primary Whole Resin- Whole
Other
Glass Glass Grain coated Grain
Summary
• The overall silica sand industry has been notably cyclical with flat
volume growth over the past twenty-five years; downturns generally
track broader economic slowdowns
• Each market segment of the silica sand industry is volatile and only frac
has shown significant long-term volume growth: However, frac volume
is still below its 1985 peak
• Strong historical growth has been due to acquisitions and internal growth
• Ferret has focused primarily on the foundry and frac segments which
account for over 60% of its contribution
• Profitability and cash flow (as a percent of sales) have recovered from 1993
levels, but are still well below 1991 peaks
69
XYZ M&A Case Example - Sand
Valuation Summary
Based on different scenarios a $100MM bid was made.
CAGR (1995-2000)
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
71
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Summary
(1 of 2)
Situation: • The client, a global asset management company with over $50B under
management, was losing market share across its businesses
• XYZ was approached to assist in developing a strategy to achieve profitable
growth
Approach: • Phase I focused on defining the current state of the current business and its
environment
– in depth analysis of the client‟s markets, channels and customers
established that client was losing share in many markets and was being out-
invested by competitors in core markets
– detailed profitability analysis across products, channels and markets
identified that only four businesses in the clients portfolio of 15 were making
significant contribution to group profits
• In Phase II, joint XYZ/client teams were formed in each business to develop
detailed five year business plans. The plans included required investment,
potential strategic moves and resultant profits, enabling the full potential of
each business unit to be determined on a comparable basis
• The individual business plans were integrated to quantify the overall opportunity
for the company. Corporate-level strategic options were then identified,
detailed and valued
72
Source: XYZ & Company Experience Centre
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Summary
(2 of 2)
Conclusion: • After detailed evaluation of strategic options, a decision was made to sell the
Asset Management Division (AMD) business. The asset management company
required significant investment in order to achieve profitable growth, and the
parent company was able to achieve higher returns by investing in other
businesses within its portfolio
• XYZ continued to support the client through the sale process by
– developing the offer memorandum, the business forecast and the
management presentation
– identifying the best new parent and quantifying their full-potential price
– supporting the bid negotiations
Impact: • The division was successfully sold, realizing $500M more in value from the
transaction than the parent would have been able to extract from the business
through continued ownership.
73
Source: XYZ & Company Experience Centre
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Profitability by Business
US$ 100M
Cumulative
Profit
80
60
40
20
0
A C E G I K M O Total
B D F H J L N P
Business Unit
Source: XYZ & Company Experience Centre 74
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Asset Management Strategy
A successful strategy for the Asset Management business is:
• Acquire to obtain • Declining market • Too late
performance for strategy
wholesale channel • Acquire to build
US • Expand into new dominant position
channels or sell
Geography
Given the risk involved, selling the Asset Management division was recommended
75
Source: XYZ & Company Experience Centre
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Management Selling Presentation (1)
The XYZ team helped the management prepare the selling presentations to the
investors.
LGT Asset Management
A Member of Liechtenstein Global Trust
Asset Forecast
100
Assets
($ Millions) 78
2 3
2 2
75 7 1
6
56
50
25
0
1997 AInst. Retail
B C D
Inst. Retail EInst. Retail
F G
Frankfurt 2002
US Europe Asia
76
Source: XYZ & Company Experience Centre
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Management Selling Presentation (2)
250 $ 20 M
$ 15 M
Core
EBITDA $ 201 M
($ Millions) 200 $ 116 M
$ 201 M
($ 39 M)
150
100 $ 88 M
50
0
1997 Revenue IT Productivity CDSC Other 2002
EBITDA Growth Investments Improvement Reduction EBITDA
2,000
Net Present
Value Strategic Premium
Revenue Synergy
$1,529M $1,538M
1,500 $1,486M
$1,248M
Cost
Synergy $985M
1,000 Bain Cost
Adjustment**
500 Management
Plan*
0
Company A Company B Company C Company D Company E
Notes: *Includes XYZ Revenue adjustment of ($254M) to reflect forecast fee rate decline
78
**XYZ Cost adjustment varies across bidders to reflect strength of management in cost reduction
NPV calculated using 5-year 14% discount rate and $561 M terminal value
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Bidder Evaluation - Model
The analysis combined a re-evaluation of AMD business, a synergy
analysis by bidder and an estimation of strategic premium which bidders
would be ready to pay.
AMD Purchase Value by Buyer All figures in US$M
Key Assumptions
Discount Rate 14% percent
Tax rate 25% percent
Pay off equivalent 1 year
AUM 54.5 Billion
Price adjustment (3%) percent on top of -1%
Stand
Valuation A B C D E
alone
AMD Plan 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090 1,090
Revenue Adjustment (254) (254) (254) (254) (254) (254)
Cost Adjustment 157 157 157 157 94 78
% achieved 100% 100% 100% 100% 60% 50%
XYZ upside to client plan 157 157 157 157 157 157
Cost cut 49 49 49 49 49 49
Cost cut % 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%
Cost synergies - 288 342 505 262 11
Cost cut - 67 79 116 60 5
Cost cut % - 28% 33% 48% 25% 2%
Revenue Synergies - 105 114 - 36 -
New markets - - 114 - - -
Brokerage - 105 - - 36 -
Strategic Premium - 100 80 40 20 60
Maximum Value 992 1,485 1,528 1,537 1,247 985
Difference from highest (545) (52) (9) - (290) (552)
Percent of AUM 1.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8%
Percent in bid 86% 73% 70% 73% 77% 84%
Base plan 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Price Adjustment 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Operating Improvement 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Cost synergy 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
New Markets synergy 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Brokerage Synergy 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Strategic Premium 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
'Realistic' Bid 852 1,088 1,074 1,124 957 825
Difference from highest (272) (37) (50) - (167) (300)
Percent of AUM 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5%
79
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Synergy Methodology
Synergies from merging AMD with a potential bidder can be evaluated by
examining each segment of the value chain separately.
Corporate Overhead
Business Unit Overhead
• Function • Corporate Centre • Investment Management • Administration • Marketing and sales • Business Unit Overhead
• Description • Central Management Human • Investment Managers • Portfolio accounting • Retail Marketing teams • Office costs
Resources Economists Fund administration Client Servicing teams IT support
Finance Dealers Transfer agencies Institutional Marketing Local HR
Audit Research & support teams Local accounting
• Rationale • Combining to similar sized • Investment management • Administration is mix of • Combining under one • Combining facilities enables
companies should result in teams are largely fixed cost. systems and variable labour. brand eliminates ad spend closure of offices and
significant economies of Two operations with Can rationalise centres and and rationalisation of economise of scale
scale. Anticipate significant identical teams should be systems; some impact on marketing teams amongst support functions
savings able to „cherry-pick‟ headcount
managers
• Impact • 80-90%
(Cost savings on • 50-80% • 50-60% • 50-75% • 80-100%
smaller operation)
80
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Business Unit Synergies - Company C
North America
• New York
• San Francisco Retail client sales & service Close Company C office
• Other Major operations in Houston, Atlanta (c400) & Denver Opportunity to reduce number of
(c400) centres
Regional offices in Boston, Louisville, Dallas, Miami, Portland
Europe
• London Regional head office Fold into Alban Gate
Asia
• Hong Kong Marketing team, investment management (c50 people) Merge operations
81
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Manufacturing Synergies - Company C
Equity
• Global 1 5? London / US offices? Adopt AMD team
• US 25 66 Houston, Denver, Boston Close Chancellor operation
• UK 2 5 London Combine both in one location
• Germany 1 17 London (?) Adopt AMD team ?
• Europe 4 11 London (?) Adopt AMD team ?
• Asia 5 25 Hong-Kong Combine both in one location
• Australia 1 4 Hong-Kong (?) Adopt AMD team ?
• Japan 2 10 Tokyo Combine both in one location
• Emerging markets 2 3 London (?) Adopt AMD team ?
Fixed Income
• Global 3 5 London Combine both in one location
• US 11 30 Houston, Denver, Boston Close Chancellor operation
Other
• Alternative Assets 12 No impact
• Other 3 No impact
• Realty Houston, Denver, Boston No impact
82
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Product Synergies - Company C
Funds
• US • US Mutual funds • 68 funds; intermediaries & direct ($94B) Consolidate operations
• Canada • Canadian mutual funds • 14 funds through intermediaries ($1B) Consolidate operations
• Hong Kong • Offshore funds • Funds in Hong Kong / Taiwan ($4B) None
Segregated
• US • Discretionary accounts • US pension funds ($45B) Close Chancellor operation
• Europe • Discretionary accounts • UK pension funds (across Europe?) None
• Asia • Discretionary accounts • Small Hong-Kong pension operation Close AMD operation
• Japan • Discretionary accounts • Japan pension accounts Consolidate operations
83
XYZ M&A Case Example - AMD
Soft Synergies - Company C
Funds
• US • US Mutual funds • 68 funds; intermediaries & direct ($94B) Share channels e.g. wirehouses
• Canada • Canadian mutual funds • 14 funds through intermediaries ($1B) Best product through both channels
• UK • UK Unit Trusts / Inv. Trusts • 23 Unit trusts ($7B) Best product through both channels
• Germany • German retail funds • None (?) None
• Europe • Offshore funds • Offshore funds to F, I & NL ($2B) Best product through both channels
• Hong Kong • Offshore funds • Funds in Hong Kong / Taiwan ($4B) Best product through both channels
• Australia • Australia unit / master trusts • None (?) None
• Japan • Japan investment trusts • 33 Investment Trusts ($2B) Limited
Segregated
• US • Discretionary accounts • US pension funds ($45B) AMD international product through Company C relationships
• Europe • Discretionary accounts • UK pension funds (across Europe?) Limited; strengthen pan-European operation
• Asia • Discretionary accounts • Small Hong-Kong pension operation Limited
• Japan • Discretionary accounts • Japan pension accounts Limited
84
XYZ M&A Introduction
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
85
XYZ M&A Exercise
Background
• XYZ was hired to help a Private Equity Fund which wanted to get
involved in consolidating the Garden Furniture industry (see note) in the
UK
– the purchase of 2 companies and the realization of synergies
between them is expected to create significant value above the
investment required
• One of the major exercises in this project involved quantifying the net
value creation arising from synergies between potential target
companies
• The approach followed by the team is shown in the Approach slide
86
Note: This exercise is based on a real case. However, for confidentiality purposes, the actual industry has been disguised
XYZ M&A Exercise
Background
Most players in the Garden Furniture industry create value along the
following “value chain.”
Corporate Activities
Sales &
Purchasing Manufacturing Distribution
Marketing
87
XYZ M&A Exercise
Approach
Having selected 4 candidates, synergies were evaluated between
each combination of 2 players to determine the optimal scenario.
Potential
Selection Synergy Integration of
Sources of
Process Evaluation Results
Synergies
Given the large number of players performing with low relative channel
share, there exists potential for consolidation in the industry.
25%
R² = 74% £ 60M
Return on
1997
Sales 20% Revenues
(Operating
Profit/
Turnover) 15%
Leader
10%
G S
5%
P B
0%
(5%)
0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5
*Note: Relative Channel Share is the weighted average relative market share by channel; 89
ROS based on three year average to 1996/97, as available
Source: FAME; Company Accounts; Information Memoranda; MBD Report; XYZ analysis
XYZ M&A Exercise
Background- Revenue by Product
60%
Garden
40% Garden Furniture Garden
Furniture Garden
Furniture Furniture
20%
0%
S P B G
• Raw material • •
purchasing
• •
•
• •
•
• •
•
• •
•
91
XYZ M&A Exercise
Answer 1 - Typical Sources of Synergies
In-Market At Centre
• Raw Material Purchasing • Portfolio clout • Best Practice • Leveraging scarce
Sharing specialist management
• Manufacturing • Avoiding talent at the Centre
Rationalisation e.g., plant margin erosion • New Product
closure due to higher Development • Leveraging scarce local
power to knowledge
• Distribution consolidation buyers • New business
development
• Sales & Marketing • Improved
– media purchasing category
– salesforce efficiency management
• Headquarters/Overhead
sharing
92
XYZ M&A Exercise
Sources of Synergies
For this example, the following specific sources of synergies were identified.
Hard Soft
Channel Portfolio
Complementarity Strengthening
93
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 2 - Hard Synergy Quantification Example - S+P
• Manufacturing £
• Materials Purchasing £
• Distribution £
• Headquarter Consolidation £
Total £
94
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 2 Data - Hard Synergy Quantification Method
Brainstorming, “rules of thumb” and competitive interviews often
enable one to get a good sense of basic input to the synergy model in
terms of cost synergies.
Materials Sales & Headquarters
Manufacturing Distribution
Purchasing Marketing Consolidation
Applied To combined entity combined entity smaller entity, by smaller entity, by smaller entity
channel channel
Key Data Input sales by product* sales by product* sales by channel sales by channel sales by channel
Timing of
Realisation 3 years 1 year 1 year 3 years 3 years
Delay **
60% Manufacturing
40%
Raw
Materials
20%
0%
S P B G
Note: Sales and cost information are best estimates for 1997/98 96
Source: Company accounts; Information memorandum; FAME; XYZ analysis
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 2 Data - Candidates’ Distribution Profile
80%
Private
60%
Builders Merchant
40%
Specialists
20%
DIY
0%
S P B G
Note: Sales and cost information are best estimates for 1997/98 97
Source: Company accounts; Information memorandum; FAME; XYZ analysis
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 2 - Methodology
Input
Overlapping manufacturing, purchasing
Note: Detailed analysis may be required depending on the need of the case. This would include a detailed 98
cost analysis e.g., cost of employees per function, factory cost breakdown, factory locations, etc
XYZ M&A Exercise
Answer 2 - Hard Synergies Model Example S+P
S+P Cost
Area of synergy S cost* P cost* combined cost Synergies Reduction Applied to
Production 11,047 2,388 12,999 650 5% combined entity
Materials 34,745 7,520 40,889 818 2% combined entity
Distribution 8,486 1,948 8,505 195 see below
Selling & Marketing 3,437 789 3,299 395 see below
Admin 2,636 607 2,713 486 80% smaller entity
TOTAL 2,543
Note: Costs for Garden Furniture have been prorated to total sales cost breakdown for cost by 99
channel, percentage of revenue by channel was used
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 3 - Soft Synergy Quantification
(£ M)
Channel
Complementarity:
Portfolio
Strengthening:
100
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 3 Data - Soft Synergy Quantification Method
Revenue benefits will depend on each player‟s relative distribution
strength in each channel. XYZ experience enabled the team to
quantify the impact of a combined distribution on the revenues.
C
h
ann
e
l Por
t
fo
l
io Por
t
fo
l
io
S
t
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ong C
o
mp
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eme
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ta
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t
y S
t
r
eng
t
hen
i
ng S
t
r
eng
t
hen
i
ng
(
20
%) (1
%) (2
%)
Player 1 Relative C
h
ann
e
l Por
t
fol
i
o Por
t
fo
l
io
Distribution M
e
d
iu
m C
o
mp
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eme
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t
y S
t
r
eng
t
heni
ng S
t
r
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hen
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Strength (
10
%) (
0.
5%) (1
%)
C
h
ann
e
l C
h
ann
e
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W
e
a
k N
o
Up
l
i
ft C
o
mp
l
eme
n
ta
ri
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o
mp
l
eme
n
ta
ri
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y
(
10
%) (
20
%)
W
e
a
k M
e
d
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m S
t
r
ong
A
p
p
l
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e
d
t
o
b
ot
h
p
l
a
y
er
s Player 2 Relative
Distribution Strength
A
p
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e
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ay
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o
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Note: Sales and cost information are best estimates for 1997/98 101
Source: Company accounts; Information memorandum; FAME; XYZ analysis
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 3 Data - Revenue Uplift Quotes
Revenue uplift would be achieved in combining businesses for 2 major
reasons, depending on the specific situation: channel complementarity or
portfolio strengthening.
Channel "Our current focus is on only a few channels. The obvious growth for
Complementarity: us would be to start going into others, but only if we had good access
to them"
–Operations Manager, Competitor
Portfolio "Competitor X are very well known, and their brand has been a key lift
Strengthening: for its acquired company"
–Sales Director, Retailer
"I think G believe that by buying [target] some of their reputation could
rub off onto G’s own [products]... [target] is a good name"
–Marketing Manager, Competitor
Note: Sales and cost information are best estimates for 1997/98 102
Source: Company accounts; Information memorandum; FAME; XYZ analysis
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 3 Data - UK Market Map
(1997)
The UK market for Garden Furniture is mainly channelled through DIY stores.
G £23M
S
£353M £135M £120M £70M £51M Total = £750M
100%
Other Other
B
Percent of
Total Other Other
80 P
P
B Other
60 B G P
S
P
40 S
S
Leader G
20
S
0
DIY Specialists BMs Private Other
Public
103
XYZ M&A Exercise
Question 3.1 - Relative Distribution Strength
In order to select the appropriate type of soft synergies and potential sales
uplift, you would need to determine the relative distribution strength of each
candidate, by channel.
S P B G Key
Strong
DIY
Medium
Specialists
Weak
BMS
Private
Public
104
XYZ M&A Exercise
Answer 3.1 - Relative Distribution Strength
S P B G Key
Strong
DIY
Medium
Specialists
Weak
BMS
Private
Public
105
XYZ M&A Exercise
Answer 3 - S+P - Soft Synergy - Answer
Using the soft synergy assumption framework and knowing each player‟s
relative distribution strength, it is simple to calculate the incremental revenue
due to synergy in the combined entity.
Type of S Revenue* P Revenue* Synergy
S Strength P Strength
Synergy Base (£000s) Base (£000s) (£000s)
DIY None – – –
Channel complementarity
Specialists 29,987 1,061 106
10% uplift for smaller
player
BMS None – – –
Total
610
244
– Channel complementarity
366
– Portfolio strengthening
Note: Revenues have been pro-rated to the share A Garden Furniture Sales 106
XYZ M&A Exercise
Summary Answer - S+P Combination
14 Not quantified
EBIT £0.3 M £0.3 M £13 M
£0.6 M £0.5 M Revenue Uplift
(£ M) £0.7 M
12
£0.8 M Cost Savings
£10 M
10
P
8
30%
6 Combined EBIT
Entity
Cost Savings Revenue Uplift Uplift
S
4
0
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Pre- Materials Production Salesforce & Headquarters Portfolio Channel Other Strategic Post-Synergy
Combination Purchasing Scale Scale Benefits Distribution Consolidation Strengthening Complementarity Benefits Realization
EBIT Benefits Consolidation EBIT
Key Drivers: •Overlapping •Production •Overhead •Sales in each •Sales in each •Other •Reality check
materials costs for all costs for channel overlapping benefits against rules
purchasing overlapping overlapping increased due channel –qualitative of thumb
costs reduced products geographical to product improved due (capability
reduced sales of all complimentarity to increased sharing,
products market knowledge
reduced presence transfer,
etc.)
107
XYZ M&A Exercise
Consolidation Benefits - UK Market Map
(S+P)
A combination of S+P would dominate the public
channel but have minimal presence in DIY.
G £23 M
S+P Total =
£353 M £135 M £120 M £70 M £51 M £750 M
100%
Percent Other Other
B
of Total
Other Other
80%
B Other
60% B G
Other
S+P
40%
S+P
S+P
Leader G
S+P
20%
0%
DIY Specialists BMs Private Other
Public
108
XYZ M&A Exercise
S+P - ROS/RMS
S+P
Leader
10%
G
5% B
0%
(5%)
0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5
*Note: Relative Channel Share is the weighted average relative market share by channel; 109
ROS based on three year average to 1996/97, as available
Source: FAME; Company Accounts; Information Memoranda; MBD Report; XYZ analysis
XYZ M&A Exercise
Summary of Two-Company Combinations
Analysis of all combinations enabled the XYZ team to highlight the best
consolidation option. The S and B combination shows the highest hard as well as
soft synergy potential. However, the difference of value created in each
combination is limited. A close analysis of the practical aspects of each
combination and ease of implementation is required as a next step.
Percent Change in
Operating Profit S P B G
*Notes: More refined synergy analysis using the measure of product complementing was used in the project, which makes figures 110
different from that of the exercise
XYZ M&A Exercise
Back-Up Data
Cost breakdown
Production 13,370 3,420 17,730 3,940
Materials 42,050 10,770 55,770 18,450
Distribution 10,270 2,790 11,600 4,580
Selling & Marketing 4,160 1,130 4,500 1,860
Admin 3,190 870 3,700 1,420
Other 3,040 830 3,600 1,350
111
XYZ M&A
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
112
XYZ M&A
Typical Watchouts
(1 of 2)
113
XYZ M&A
Typical Watchouts
(2 of 2)
Valuation: • Full value quantification should include three steps:
–stand alone value: assuming current performance going forward. This
takes into account market dynamics factors
–stand alone operating improvement (or full potential): additional value
created by managing the entity better, e.g., according to BDPs
–integration opportunities: valuation of synergies (cost/“hard” synergies
and revenue enhancement/“soft” synergies) generated by the
combination of two businesses
Integration: • Carefully thought-of integration process is a major factor of success in
M&A
• Key success factors include early planning, constant communication,
retention of key managers, aggressive sharing of corporate vision,
respect for people and culture
• Short-term objectives should be consistent with long-term goals
• Swift changes are required and acquirer should avoid falling in the
“hands-off” doom loop (drop in performance, pressure on acquiree,
morale collapse at acquiree, lower performance…)
114
XYZ M&A
Agenda
• Trends in M&A
• Guiding Principles for Successful M&A
• XYZ Approach
• Case Examples
– screening
– due diligence
– sale
• Exercise on Synergy Calculation
• Typical Watchouts
• Key Takeaways
115
XYZ M&A
Key Takeaways
(1 of 3)
Trends: • M&A activity has been booming over the past decade
and has become a major part of corporate activities
116
XYZ M&A
Key Takeaways
(2 of 3)
117
XYZ M&A
Key Takeaways
(3 of 3)
Approach: • Major steps in an M&A in which XYZ may be involved are:
–strategy development: should an acquisition be pursued? in which sector
or region?
–target screening: who is/are the best candidate(s) based on
attractiveness and availability?
–due diligence: how comfortable are we with the screening hypothesis?
–valuation: what is the full value of the entity? what is the right price for it?
–integration: how will we ensure that full value is achieved?
• XYZ role is complementary rather than competing with other advisors‟ role:
–XYZ focuses on strategic issues and full value quantification
–investment banks concentrate on the financial aspects of the deals:
market-related information gathering and analysis, valuation, deal
financial structuring, production of information memorandum, etc.
–lawyers deal with legal matters, including due diligence at the time of the
transaction (confirming that the information memorandum reflects reality,
for instance)
–accountants are occasionally involved in the deal structuring
118