Classifications of Probability Distributions: Random Variable
Classifications of Probability Distributions: Random Variable
• Discrete probability distribution is associated with random variable that can take on only a finite
number of values
• Continuous probability distribution is associated with random variable that can take on infinite
number of values
Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions
➢ The probability distribution is a complete probabilistic description of a random variable.
➢ All other statistical concepts (expectation, variance, etc) are derived from it.
➢ Once we know the probability distribution of a random variable, we know everything we can learn
about it from statistics.
1. f ( x) 0
2.
f ( x)dx 1
b
3. P (a X b) f ( x)dx area under f (x) for any a and b
a
Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
b
P(a X b) f ( x)dx
a
P( x1 X x2 ) P( x1 X x2 ) P( x1 X x2 ) P( x1 X x2 )
Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
Example 4-2
Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
x
x
F ( x) P( X x) f (u )du For
Example 4-4
Mean:
( a b)
E ( x)
2
Variance
( a b ) 2
2 V ( x)
12
Figure 4-10 Normal probability density functions for selected values of the parameters and 2.
Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
1.0
Cumulative normal
density function
0.8
0.4
2.28%
0.2
68.27%
0
3 2 2 3
Normal Distribution
Z-score of an observation tells us the number of standard deviation that the observation from
the mean (how far the observation is from the mean in units of standard deviation.
Normal Distribution----Standard Normal
A random variable X with 0 and 2 1
Is called a standard normal random variable and is denoted as Z.
( z ) P( Z z )
Standardizing
If X is a normal random variable with E ( X ) and V ( X ) 2 , then the random
variable
X
Z
Is a normal random variable with E(Z)=0, and V(Z)=1. that is Z is a standard normal
random variable
Normal Distribution----Standard Normal
Example 4-14
Normal Distribution----Standard Normal
Example 4-14 (continued)
Normal Approximation to the Binomial and Poisson Distributions
Under certain conditions, the normal distribution can be used to approximate
the binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution.
x 0.5 np
P ( X x) P ( X x 0.5) P Z
npq
And
x 0.5 np
P ( x X ) P ( x 0 .5 X ) P Z
npq
The approximation is good for np 5 and nq 5 Figure 4-19 Normal approximation to the binomial.
Normal Approximation to the Binomial and Poisson Distributions
Example 4-17
Example 4-18
Normal Approximation to the Binomial and Poisson Distributions
lx
f ( x ) le for 0 x
If the random variable X has an exponential random variable with parameter l.
1 1
E( X ) and V ( X )
2
l l2
It is important to use consistent units in the calculation of probabilities, means, and variances
involving exponential random variables.
Exponential Distribution
Example 4-21
Exponential Distribution
In Example 4-21, suppose that there are no log-ons from 12:00 to 12:15; the probability that
there are no log-ons from 12:15 to 12:21 is still 0.082. Because we have already been
waiting for 15 minutes, we feel that we are “due.” That is, the probability of a log-on in the
next 6 minutes should be greater than 0.082. However, for an exponential distribution this is
not true.
Exponential Distribution
4-8 Exponential Distribution
Example 4-22
Exponential Distribution
Example 4-22 (continued)
Exponential Distribution
Example 4-22 illustrates the lack of memory property of an exponential random variable and a
general statement of property follows. In fact, the exponential distribution is the only continuous
distribution with this property.
P ( X t1 t 2 X t1 ) P ( X t 2 )