Photovoltaics

Introduction
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This course - contents
 Solar resource
 Physics of solar cells
 PV technologies
 Grid connected PV systems
 Stand alone systems
 Building integrated systems
 Concentration photovoltaics
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This course - grading
 Test: 50% (15 Dez 2017)
 Lab work: 15%
 Home work: System design (15%)
 Presentation: Advanced topics (20%)

and/or
 Final exam: everything (100%)
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This course – main references
 T. Markvart, Solar electricity, 2nd edition, John Wiley
& Sons, 2000
 M. Green, Solar cells – operating principles, technology
and system applications, USW 1986
 R. Messeger, Photovoltaics system engineering, 2nd ed.,
2003
 A. Luque et al, Handbook of PV Science and
Engineering, 2003
 S. Bowden et al, PV CD ROM [pvcdrom.pveducation.org]
 Photon international magazine [www.photon-magazine.com]
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TODAY
 (Summary of this course)
 Brief history of photovoltaics
 PV global market
 PV in Portugal
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Brief history of photovoltaics
1839: Edmund Becquerel, a French experimental physicist, discovered the
photovoltaic effect.
1873: Willoughby Smith discovered the photoconductivity of selenium.
1876: Adams and Day observed the photovoltaic effect in solid selenium.
1883: Charles Fritts, an American inventor, described the first solar cells
made from selenium wafers.
1904: Einstein published his paper on the photoelectric effect.
1916: Millikan provided experimental proof of the photoelectric effect.
1951: A grown p-n junction enabled the production of a single-crystal cell
of germanium.
1954: Bell Labs researchers Pearson, Chapin, and Fuller reported their
discovery of 4.5% efficient silicon solar cells.
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Brief history of photovoltaics
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Brief history of photovoltaics
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Brief history of photovoltaics
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Cost of photovoltaics
Cost and price are very different, often not even correlated!

There are 3 traditional measures of PV cost:

• Cost per Watt-peak installed
• Levelized cost of electricity
• Grid parity

Morgan Bazilian et al, Re-considering the Economics of Photovoltaic Power , et, New Energy Finance working paper 2012
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Cost per Watt-peak

Units: €/W

Simple and objective to determine, usually refers to

module cost (Spot market? Factory gate? End user?) and
thus it does not represent full installation system cost.

It is not comparable to other (renewable or fossil) energy

sources due to the different capacity factor.

Comparing different PV technologies not trivial.

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Cost per Watt-peak

Silicon: 1.43 $/Wp

CdTe: 1.56 $/Wp

(+9.1%!)

$0.09

$0.08

Examples of other costs

(= Balance of system, BOS)
for different technologies
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Levelized cost of electricity (LCoE)

Units: €/kWh

The cost that really matters!

But depends on location (insolation),

financial costs (discount rate, subsidies,…) and
assumptions on lifetime (25 or 40 years?) or
O&M costs (10 or 30$/kW/year)
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Grid parity
Electricity prices will increase
PV costs will decrease
… PV WILL BE COST COMPETITIVE.

Wholesale or end-user electricity price?

Socket parity – defined as the point where a
household can make 5% or more return on investment
in a PV system just by using the energy generated to
replace household energy consumption.
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Grid parity
Electricity prices will increase
PV costs will decrease
… PV WILL BE COST COMPETITIVE.

When?
Where?
At what time of the day/year?
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Grid parity

BNEF University - Breakthroughs in Solar Power [WWW Document]. Bloomberg | New Energy Finance.
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Global access to electricity in percent of local population

Christian Breyer and Alexander Gerlach, Global overview on grid-parity, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. (2012) DOI: 10.1002/pip.1254
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Population without access to electricity and local irradiation

There is a huge global market for PV,

even before we run out of gas & coal.

Christian Breyer and Alexander Gerlach, Global overview on grid-parity, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. (2012) DOI: 10.1002/pip.1254
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Although the best spots for PV applications are in the developing world, most
systems are installed in the developed world. Why? Because it is expensive!
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How can we reduce the

GLOBAL PV OUTLOOK 2013-2017

cost of photovoltaics?
Although the best spots for PV applications are in the developing world, most
systems are installed in the developed world. Why? Because it is expensive!
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Technological improvement

= 2010
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Economies of scale
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Public subsidies for the growth of the PV global market

German
market

Japanese
market
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PV market - Japanese market in 1990s
 Incentives: from 9$/W (1994) to 2$/W (2003)
(1G€ from government + 2G€ from companies)
 High grid electricity prices (19c$/kWh)
 Low interest rates, low inflation, modularity of
construction industry, large semiconductor industry…

Lead to:
 Rapid decrease in PV prices
(70% decrease from 1994 to 2003)
 22-fold increase production capacity
 32-fold increase installed capacity

M.G. Rogol, Why did the solar power sector develop quickly in Japan?, MSc Thesis, MIT 2007
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PV market – German market in 2000s

EPIA Brochure: Supporting Solar Photovoltaic Electricity - An Argument for Feed-in Tariffs, January 2008
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PV market – German market in 2000s

20x

15x

Souce: Photon International

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GLOBAL PV OUTLOOK 2013-2017

German model replicated across Europe, making it the largest world market
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PV market – German market in 2000s
• PV electricity production today not relevant for
German electricity: <0.5% (2007)
• CO2 abatement cost: 760€/ton
• Massive invoice to be paid over 20 years: 63T€
• German PV industry deficit: ~50% import
• 205k€/year/new job created

Recommendations:
• Stop feed-in tariff support for PV
• Increase investment into R&D
A. Macintosh, D. Wilkinson, Searching for public benefits in solar subsidies, Energy Policy 39 (2011) 3199–3209
M. Frondel, et al, Germany’s solar cell promotion: Dark clouds on the horizon, Energy Policy 36 (2008) 4198–4204
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Spanish market bubble
Case study: what can I do wrong?
• Generous feed-in tariff
• But no maximum cap
• Overwhelming demand
• Abrupt end
• Fraud
• Huge cost to Spanish government
• Unbalanced demand/suppy for PV industry
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Polisilicon feedstock bubble
 Increasing demand
 Competition with ‘electronic silicon’
 ‘Closed’ industry (high installation cost, low ramp up)
with few players
 Market showed slow reaction time
 Prices skyrockted (spot market: 500$/kg)
 New players, large investments
 New polisilicon technologies window opportunity
 Huge capacity expansion
 Falling prices
 Companies bankrupting.
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GTM Research: The Global PV Market:Yesterday,Today, and Tomorrow

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‘First Solar’ emergence
• Silicon-less technology
• Opportunity window for financial capitals
• Long R&D development
• Lower efficiency but lower cost for high throughput
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‘First Solar’ emergence

M. Green, Learning experience for thin-film solar modules: First Solar, Inc. case study, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. (2010) DOI:
10.1002/pip.1057
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Emergence of PV industry in China
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Emergence of PV industry in China

Timeline of PV development in China

1. Low cost silicon wafers, cells and
modules for the German (and other
EU) market(s)
1. Stricter environmental and
comparable quality products
2. Large scale and innovation
3. Creation of an internal market
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Emergence of PV industry in China

Cost advantageous comes mostly from economies of

scale, not labour costs or dumping
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But has been blamed on environmental record!

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And has been blamed on dumping…
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Yet, the answer is also innovation!

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Emergence of PV industry in China

Share of China in world innovation in each segment of the PV industry [A. de la Tour et al, 2011]
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Emergence of PV industry in China
The fastest increasing PV market
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Consolidation of the global PV industry

Assessment of Incentives and Employment Impacts of Solar Industry Deployment, 2012

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PV market today
• German industry & market domination
• Polisilicon feedstock bubble
• Emergence of ‘First Solar’
• Spanish market bubble
• Emergence of chinese PV industry
• Manufacturers consolidation
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PV market today
• German industry & market domination
• Polisilicon feedstock bubble
• Emergence of ‘First Solar’
• Spanish market bubble
• Emergence of chinese PV industry
• Manufacturers consolidation
• Chinese and Japanese
market growth
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PV in Portugal
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500 50%

437
420
40%
Total installed PV capacity [MW]

400 39% 40%

Annual variation
299
300 31% 30%
244

22% 23%
200 175 20%

134
110
100 10%
62

15 4%
3
0 0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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100%

80%

60%

40%

20% ON-GRID
OFF-GRID

0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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PV in Portugal – legal framework
 Roadmap: 2020: 1500MW
 Demonstration R&D projects:
PV concentration (28?c€/kWh) [2010]
 Micro-generation: Renewables-on-demand
(19.6c€/kWh/8 anos + 16.5c€/kWh/7 anos)
[2008; 2010; 2013]
 Mini-generation |DL 34/2011 March 8th]
(<20kW: 25c€/kWh; <250kW: auction)
 Self-demand |DL 153/2014 October 20th]
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Micro-generation -
Mini-generation - Decreto Lei 363/2007
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Self demand in Portugal
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Self demand in Portugal
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PV in Portugal – flagship projects
 Selvagem Grande, Madeira (1983, 660W)
 Solar XXI, Lisbon (1989; 2.2kW)+ (2005; 12+6kW)
 Brinches, Serpa (2007; 11MW)
 Amareleja, Moura (2008; 46MW)
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Manufacturers
 Open renewables
 Martifer Solar
 Magpower
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Remarks - PV in Portugal
 Almost no manufacturing
 Commercialization & installation suffers from
policy hesitations
 Current legal framework favors very small
installations for residential users and industrial
installations
 Untapped huge solar potential
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 Further reading (references online or available at course page)

◦ M. Green, Silicon Photovoltaic Modules: A Brief History of the First 50

Years, Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 2005; 13:447–455
◦ M.G. Rogol, Why did the solar power sector develop quickly in Japan?,
MSc Thesis, MIT 2007
◦ M. Frondel, et al, Germany’s solar cell promotion: Dark clouds on the
horizon, Energy Policy 36 (2008) 4198–4204
◦ EPIA Brochure: Supporting Solar Photovoltaic Electricity - An
Argument for Feed-in Tariffs, January 2008
◦ A. Jager-Waldau, Photovoltaics and renewable energies in Europe,
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11 (2007) 1414–1437
◦ www.renovaveisnahora.pt
◦ pvcdrom.pveducation.org