Probability

Topic:

 Basic concept of Probability

 Some important definitions
 Classical Definition of Probability
 Limitation of Classical Definition of Probability
 Theorem of Total Probability
 Conditional Probability
 Theorem of Compound Probability
 Bayes’ Theorem
 Some important Formulae
 Problems and Solutions
Basic concept of Probability:

Regarding any random experiment there always uncertainty exists as whether a

particular event will occur or won’t occur. ‘Probability’ is a quantitative measure of
the chance with which we can expect the event to occur and it varies between two
numbers, i.e., 0 and 1. If there is 100% surety or certainty that the event will occur,
it is said that its probability is 1, but if there is no surety or certainty that the event
will occur, it is said that its probability is zero. If, the probability has been found as
0.25, it means there is a 25% chance that the event will occur and a 75% chance
that it won’t occur.

Some important definitions:

Random Experiment:
An experiment in which all possible result or outcomes are known and it is
impossible to predict which one from the set possible results or outcomes will
occur at any particular performance of such experiment, is known as ‘Random
Experiment’. For example, ‘tossing a coin’ is a random experiment where the set of
possible outcomes is {H, T}. Here, H and T represent ‘Head’ and ‘Tail’
respectively. It is impossible to predict whether ‘H’ or ‘T’ will occur at any
particular performance of the aforesaid random experiment.
Another example of random experiment is ‘tossing a die’. A particular performance
of such a random experiment will result in any of the elements of the set {1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6} which is impossible to predict before such random experiment.
Sample Space:

‘Sample Space’ represents a set(S) which consists of all possible outcomes relating
to a random experiment and each of the possible outcomes contained in the sample
space is called a ‘Sample Point’.
For example, if ‘S’ be the sample space relating to the random experiment ‘tossing
a coin twice’ then the sample space (S) will contain 2 2 = 4 sample points.
Symbolically, S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}.

Events:

The outcomes of a random experiment are called ‘Events’. An event is a subset of

the sample space. Let, ‘A’ be an event and ‘S’ be the sample space connected to a
random experiment. If the outcome of such experiment is an element of A, then it
will be said that the event A has occurred.

An event consisting of a single sample point of the sample space is called a

‘Simple or Elementary event’ and an event comprising of multiple sample points
(more than one) of the sample space is called ‘Compound or Composite event’.

An event which is logically impossible to occur at any performance of a random

experiment is called ‘Impossible Event’ and is denoted by ‘ φ ’. Therefore, the
probability of occurrence of an impossible event is zero. Symbolically, P( φ ) = 0.

An event which occurs certainly at any performance of a random experiment is

called ‘Certain Event’ or ‘Sure Event’ and is denoted by ‘S’. Therefore, the
probability of occurrence of a sure event is 1. Symbolically, P(S) = 1.
Mutually Exclusive Events:
Two events A and B relating to a random experiment E are said to be mutually
exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously. Events A and B are said to be
mutually exclusive when A  B = φ and P(A  B) = 0, where, ‘ φ ’ is impossible
event.

Mutually Exhaustive Events:

A set of events relating to a random experiment E is said to be mutually exhaustive
if at least one event of the set is certain to occur at every performance of the
random experiment. For example, if an unbiased die is thrown as a random
experiment and if A1, A2,…, A6 are the events to get ‘One’, ‘Two’,…, ‘Six’
respectively, A1, A2,…, A6 events are called mutually exhaustive events as at least
one of them will surely occur at every performance of the random experiment.

Equally Likely Events:

Two or more events are said to be equally likely if, after considering all the
relevant evidence, none can be expected to occur in preference to another. In case
of random experiment of tossing a coin, sample space contains two events, namely,
H(event of getting head) and T(event of getting tail). Here, H and T are said to be
equally likely because none of them can be expected to occur in preference to
another.

Classical Definition of Probability:

Let, the sample space ‘S’ of a random experiment ‘E’ comprises of a finite number
[n(S)] of event points where all the event points are known to be equally likely. If,
m(A) number of event points of these n(S) event points are contained in the event

m(A)
‘A’ connected with random experiment ‘E’ then the ratio n(S)
is called the

probability of occurrence of the event ‘A’ and is denoted by P(A). Therefore,

Number of equally likely event points

contained in the event A
P(A) =
Finite number of equally likely event points contained
in sample space of the random experiment

m(A)
Or, P(A) = n(S)

Limitation of Classical Definition of Probability:

The classical definition of probability suffers from the following limitations:

i. The definition rests mainly on intuition;
ii. In this definition it is assumed that the event points of the sample space are
‘equally likely’;
iii. In this definition, the sample space is assumed to contain a finite number of
event points;
iv. The definition is not applicable if the event points of the sample space are not
equally likely;
v. The definition has limited application in the games of chance, i.e., coin-tossing,
die-throwing etc.
Theorem of Total Probability:

The probability of occurrence of any one of ‘n’ pairwise mutually exclusive events
namely, A1, A2,…, An is equal to the sum of the probabilities of the events.
Symbolically,
P ( A1  A2  ...  An )  P ( A1 )  P ( A2 )  ...  P ( An )

Conditional Probability:

Suppose, ‘S’ be the sample space of a random experiment ‘E’ and ‘A’ and ‘B’ are
two events connected with the random experiment such that P(A) >0. Then, the
probability of occurrence of event ‘B’ on the hypothesis that event ‘A’ has actually

B
occurred, is called ‘conditional probability of event B’ and is denoted by P  A  .
 

Theorem of Compound Probability:

Dependent Event:
For two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ related to a random experiment ‘E’ where, occurrence
of event ‘B’ depends on the occurrence of event ‘A’, the probability of their
simultaneous occurrence is equal to the product of probability of A and the
conditional probability of B on the hypothesis that the event A has actually
occurred. Symbolically,
 B
P(A  B) = P(A). P  A  .
 

Independent Event:
For two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ related to a random experiment ‘E’ where, occurrence
of event ‘B’ does not depend on the occurrence of event ‘A’, the probability of their
simultaneous occurrence is equal to the product of probability of A and probability
of B. In this case, event ‘B’ is said to be stochastically independent of event ‘A’ and
conditional probability of B on the hypothesis that the event A has actually
occurred is equal to probability of B. Symbolically,

B
P(A  B) = P(A).P(B) where, P(B) = P  A  .
 

Bayes’ Theorem:

An event ‘X’ can occur if and only if one from the set of mutually exclusive as
well as mutually exhaustive events A1, A2,…, An occurs. Let’s assume that the
unconditional probabilities [P(A1), P(A2),…, P(An)] and conditional probabilities

 X   X   X 
[P  A , P  A ,…, P   ] are given. Then, the conditional probability of an
 1  2  An 

arbitrary event Ai on the hypothesis that the event ‘X’ has actually occurred is
called the outcome of Bayes’ Theorem and is shown as follows:

X 
P( Ai ).P 
A 
P i   Ai 
=
 X  X   X   X 
P( A1 ).P   P( A2 ).P   ...  P ( An ).P 
 A1   A2   An 
Some important Formulae:

1. The probability of an impossible event is Zero. Symbolically, P( φ ) = 0.

2. If Ac is the complementary event of an event A, then, P(Ac) = 1- P(A).
3. For any event A, 0  P(A)  1 is true.
4. For any two events A and B, if, A  B, then, P(A)  P(B).
5. For any two events A and B:
i. P(A) = P(A  B) + P(A  Bc) and ii. P(B) = P(A  B) + P(Ac  B).
6. For any two events A and B:
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B).
7. For any three events A, B and C:
P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A  B) - P(B  C) - P(C  A) +
P(A  B  C).
8. For ‘n’ events A1, A2,…, An:
P( A1  A 2  ...  A n )  P(A1) + P(A2) +…+ P(An).
9. For any two events A and B:
P(A  B)  P(A) + P(B) - 1.
10. For any two events A and B:
P(A  B)  P(A)  P(A  B).
11. If events A and B are said to be independent events then following pair of
events will also be independent events:
i. Ac and Bc , ii. A and Bc and iii. Ac and B.
12. For any two independent events A and B:
P(A  B) = 1 – P(Ac).P(Bc).
13. For any two independent events A and B, if P(A)  0 and P(B)  0 then events
 A and B are not said to be mutually exclusive.
Problems and solutions:

Problem.1

1. Three fair coins are tossed once. Construct the sample space related to the
random experiment. Find the probability of :
i. at least one head and ii. exactly one tail.

Solution:

Let H and T denote the outcomes ‘Head’ and ‘Tail’ respectively in the random
experiment of tossing a fair coin once. Then sample space S in the random
experiment of tossing three fair coins once is shown as follows:

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, TTH, THT, TTT}.

i. Let A denote the event ‘no head’. It is very clear that number of equally likely
event point in A is 1(i.e., TTT). Sample space of the random experiment contains 8
equally likely sample points.
Therefore, as per the classical definition of probability, P(A) = 1/8.
Hence, the probability of getting at least one head = P(Ac) = 1 - P(A) =1- 1/8 = 7/8.

ii. Let B denote the event of getting ‘exactly one tail’. It is clearly seen in the
sample space connected to the random experiment that B contains 3 equally likely
event points (i.e., HHT, HTH, THH).
Hence, according to classical definition of probability, P(B) = 3/8.
Problem.2

As a random experiment two balanced dice are thrown together. Mention the
sample space clearly. Find the probability of obtaining:
i. 4 in both the dice, ii. doublets and iii. 2 in one dice and 5 in another dice.

Solution:

Let, S be the sample space connected to the random experiment of throwing two
balanced dice together. Then, S contains 62 = 36 equally likely sample points and is
shown as follows:
S = {(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1)
(6,1) (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2)
(5,2) (6,2) (1,3) (2,3)
(3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3) (1,4)
(2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4)
(6,4) (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5)
(5,5) (6,5) (1,6) (2,6)
(3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)}.

i. Let A be the event of getting ‘4 in both the dice’. It is very clear that event A
contains one equally likely event point [i.e., (4,4)].

Therefore, as per the classical definition of probability, P(A) = 1/36.

ii. Let B be the event of getting ‘Doublets’. It is clearly seen in the sample space
that event B contains six equally likely event points [i.e., (1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4),
(5,5), (6,6)].

Hence, according to the classical definition of probability, P(B) = 6/36 = 1/6.

iii. Let C be the event of getting ‘2 in one dice and 5 in another dice’. It is clearly
visible in the sample space that event C contains two equally likely event points
[i.e., (2,5),(5,2)].

Therefore, according to the classical definition of probability, P(C) = 2/36 = 1/18.

Problem.3

i. What is chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sunday? ii.
What is chance that a non-leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sunday?

Solution:

In any leap year there are 366 days. There are 52 Sundays in 52 weeks amongst (52
x 7) = 364 days. Therefore, days remain in a leap year above 364 days = (366 -
364) = 2 days and in any non-leap year there are 365 days. Therefore, days remain
in a non-leap year above 364 days = (365 - 364) = 1 day.

i. Let A be an event of getting ‘53 Sundays in a leap year’. From the above
calculation it is clear a leap year normally has 52 Sundays and in order to get 53
Sundays it needs one more Sunday to be added into it. Here, the sample space
contains 7 equally likely event points as follows:
S = {(Sunday, Monday), (Monday, Tuesday), (Tuesday, Wednesday), (Wednesday,
Thursday), (Thursday, Friday), (Friday, Saturday), (Saturday, Sunday)}.

It is clear from the sample space that event A contains 2 equally likely event points
[i.e., (Sunday, Monday), (Saturday, Sunday)].

Therefore, as per the classical definition of probability, P(A) = 2/7.

i. Let B be an event of getting ‘53 Sundays in a non-leap year’. From the

calculation in the previous page, it is clear that a non-leap year normally has 52
Sundays and in order to get 53 Sundays it needs one more Sunday to be added into
it. Here, the sample space contains 7 equally likely event points as follows:

S = {Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday}.

It is clear from the sample space that event B contains 1 equally likely event point
(i.e., Sunday).

Therefore, as per the classical definition of probability, P(B) = 1/7.

Problem.4

What is the probability that if a fair coin is tossed six times we will get:

i. exactly two heads and ii. at least two heads.

Solution:

Evidently, the first toss may have 2 different outcomes (i.e., head and tail), each of
which can be associated with 2 different outcomes of the second toss. Therefore, if
the fair coin is tossed two times, there are 22 = 4 different outcomes. Arguing in the
same way we shall have 26 different outcomes when the fair coin is tossed six
times in succession. Therefore, the sample space of the random experiment
contains 26 = 64 equally likely sample points.

i. Let A be the event of ‘getting exactly two heads’. Clearly, number of equally
likely event points contained in event A = number of arrangements of 2 heads and
6! 6X5
4 tails taken all at a time = 2!.(6  2)!
= 2 = 15.

Therefore, as per classical definition of probability, P(A) = 15/64.

ii. Let B and C are two events of ‘getting no head’ and of ‘getting one head’
respectively. It is absolutely clear that event B contains one equally likely event
6! 6
point (i.e., TTTTTT) and event C contains 1!.(6  1)!
= 1 = 6 equally likely event

points.

Therefore, according to the classical definition of probability, P(B) = 1/64 and P(C)
= 6/64.

Both the events B and C are mutually exclusive and as per the theorem of total
probability:

P(B  C) = P(B) + P(C) = 1/64 + 6/64 = 7/64.

Therefore, Probability of getting ‘at least two heads’ =

P[(B  C)c] = 1 - P(B  C) = (1 - 7/64) = 57/64.

Problem.5
Consider a random experiment where four balanced dice are thrown together. Find
the probability of getting different digits on the four dice.

Solution:

If four balanced dice are thrown together, there are 6 4 equally likely event points in
the sample space connected to the random experiment.

Let A be the event of ‘getting different digits on the four dice’. To find the number
of equally likely event points contained in event A, we must note that the first die
may have 6 different outcomes, each of which can be combined with 5 different
outcomes of throwing the second die. Therefore, we can have different digits on
two dice in (6 X 5) different ways. Arguing in the same way, we can have different
digits on four dice in (6 X 5 X 4 X 3) different ways. Hence, the number of equally
likely event points contained in event A is (6 X 5 X 4 X 3).

Therefore, as per the classical definition of probability,

6X5X4X3
P(A) = = 5/18
64

Problem.6
3 cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of
getting:
i. 2 aces, ii. 2 Spades, iii. 1 spade, 1 club and 1 diamond, iv. 2 face cards (i.e. king,
queen, jack) and v. at least 1 king.

Solution:
Three cards can be drawn at random from a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards in
52!
3!.49!
ways.

Therefore, number of equally likely event points in the sample space of the random
52!
experiment = 3!.49!
.

i. Let A denote the event that two of the drawn cards are aces. A pack of 52 cards
consists of 4 aces and 48 other cards. Now, two aces can be drawn from 4 aces in
4!
2!.2!
ways and for each such selection 1card from the other 48 cards can be

48!
drawn in 1!.47!
ways. Therefore, number of equally likely event points contained

4! 48!
in event A is 2!.2!
× 1!.47!
.

Therefore, as per the classical definition of probability,

4! 48! 52!
P(A) = ( 2!.2! × 1!.47!
) / 3!.49!
= 72/5525.

ii. Let B denote the event of drawing two spades. A pack of 52 cards consists of 13
13!
spades and 39 other cards. Now, 2 spades can be drawn from 13 spades in 2!.11!

ways and for each such selection 1 card from the other 39 cards can be drawn in
39!
1!.38!
ways. Therefore, the number of equally likely event points contained in

13! 39!
event B is 2!.11!
× 1!.38!
.
Therefore, according to the classical definition of probability,

13! 39! 52!

P(B) = ( 2!.11! × 1!.38!
) / 3!.49!
= 117/850.

iii. Let C be the event of drawing 1 spade, 1club and 1diamond. Clearly, Number
13! 13! 13!
of equally likely event points contained in event C = × ×
1!.12! 1!.12! 1!.12!
.

Therefore, according to the classical definition of probability,

13! 13! 13! 52!

P(C) = ( 1!.12! × 1!.12! × 1!.12! ) / 3!.49!
= 169/1700.

iv. Let D denote the event of drawing 2 face cards. A pack of 52 cards comprises of
12 face cards (i.e., king, queen and jack for each of the four types of cards namely,
spade, diamond, club and hurt) and 40 other cards. Therefore, number of equally
12! 40!
likely event points contained in event D is ×
2!.10! 1!.39!
.

Hence, as per the classical definition of probability,

12! 40! 52!

P(D) = ( 2!.10! × 1!.39! ) / 3!.49!
= 132/1105.

v. Let E be the event of drawing no king. Since, a pack of 52 cards comprises of 4

kings and 48 other cards, it is evident that the number of equally likely event points
48!
contained in event E is 3!.45!
.

Hence, as per the classical definition of probability,

 48! 52!
P(E) = 3!.45!
/ 3!.49!
= 4324/5525.

Therefore, probability of getting at least one king [P(Ec)] is shown in next page:

P(Ec) = 1 - P(E) = (1 - 4324/5525) = 1201/5525.

Problem.7

Consider a random experiment of tossing a coin twice, let, A be the event ‘at least
one head occurs’ and B be the event ‘the second toss result in a tail’.
Find: i. Set A,
ii. Set B,
iii. A  B,
iv. A  B,
v. A ,
vi. A - B.

Solution:

A = {HT, TH, HH}, B = {HT, TT}, and so we have, A  B = {HT, TH, HH, TT},
A  B = {HT}, A = {TT} and A - B = {TH, HH}.

Problem.8
 3
The three events A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. If, P(B) = 2

1
P(A) and P(C) = 3
P(B), Find, P(C).

Solution:

1
P(C) = 3
P(B)

Or, P(B) = 3P(C)

Again,
3
P(B) = 2
P(A)
2
Or, P(A) = 3
P(B)
2
Or, P(A) = 3
× 3P(C)

Or, P(A) = 2 P(C)

As per the problem, the events A, B and C are mutually exhaustive. Hence it must
be written as follows:

(A  B  C) = S where, S is the sure event.

Therefore, P(A  B  C) = P(S) = 1.

Or, P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1 [As per the theorem of total probability]
Or, 2P(C) + 3P(C) + P(C) = 1[As A, B and C are mutually exclusive]
Or, 6P(C) = 1
 1
Or , P(C) = 6

Problem.9

Three identical boxes contain red and white balls. The first box contains 3 red and
2 white balls. The second box contains 4 red and 5 white balls. Lastly, the third box
consists of 2 red and 4 white balls. A box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn
from it. If the ball drawn is red, what is the probability that the second box is
chosen?

Solution:

Let A1, A2 and A3 are the events of choosing the first, the second and the third box
respectively and X be the event of drawing a red ball from the chosen box. Then
the occurrence of event X depends on the occurrence of one the mutually exclusive
and mutually exhaustive events A1, A2 and A3.

Now,
1
P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 3
3!
 X  3
and P  A  = 1!.
5
2!
! = 5
,
 1
1!.4!
 4!
 X  1!.3! 4
P  A =
9! = 9
and
 2
1!.8!
2!
 X  2 1
P  A  = 1!.1! = =
 3  6! 6 3
1!.5!

Now, X = (A1  X)  (A2  X)  (A3  X).

Therefore, P(X) = P(A1  X)  P(A2  X)  P(A3  X)

Or, P(X) = P(A1  X) + P(A2  X) + P(A3  X)

[As per the total theorem of
probability]

 X   X   X 
Or, P(X) = P(A1). P  A  + P(A2). P  A  + P(A3). P  A 
 1  2  3

1 3 1 4 1 1 62
Or, P(X) = .
3 5
+ .
3 9
+ .
3 3
= 135

Now, as per the Bayes’ Theorem,

A   X  1 4 62 10
P  X2  = P(A2). P  A  / P(X) = ( 3 . 9 ) / =
   2 135 31
Therefore, the probability of selecting the second box when it is known that the
10
drawn ball is of red colour = 31
.

Problem.10

P speaks the truth in 70% of cases and Q in 85% of cases. In what percentage of
cases are they likely to contradict each other is stating the same fact?

Solution:
Let A and B are the events of speaking the truth by P and Q respectively.
Then, by the question we have got,
P(A) = 70/100 = 0.7 and P(B) = 85/100 = 0.85
Therefore,
P(Ac) = 1 - P(A) = (1- 0.7) = 0.3
and P(Bc) = 1 - P(B) = (1 - 0.85) = 0.15
Let, X be the event that P and Q contradict each other in stating the same fact.
Then we have had:
X = (A  Bc)  (Ac  B)
Therefore,
P(X) = P(A  Bc)  P(Ac  B)
Or, P(X) = P(A  Bc) + P(Ac  B) [As events (A  Bc) and (Ac  B) are mutually
exclusive]
Or, P(X) = P(A).P(Bc) + P(Ac).P(B) [As events A, Bc and Ac, B are independent]
Or, P(X) = (0.7x0.15) + (0.3x0.85) = 0.36
Hence, P and Q are likely to contradict each other in 36% cases in stating the same
fact.
Problem.11
Three contractors A, B and C are bidding for the construction of a new office
building. The probability that C will get the contract is half the B’s probability of
getting the same. Again, the probability that B will get the contract is 5/7 th of A’s
probability of getting the same. Find the probability of each to get the contract.
[Assume that one of the three contractors A, B, C will get the contract.]

Solution:
Let X, Y and Z are the events that A, B and C will get the contract respectively for
the construction of new office building.
Let, P(X) = p.
As per the given information,
5 1 5 5
P(Y) = 5/7.P(X) = 7
p and P(Z) = 1/2.P(Y) = . p
2 7
= 14
p.

As per the given information, one of the three contractors will get the contract.
Hence,
X  Y  Z = S [where, S is the ‘Sure Event’.]
Or, P(X  Y  Z) = P(S) = 1
Or, P(X) + P(Y) + P(Z) = 1 [As, events X, Y, Z are mutually exclusive.]
5 5
Or, p+ 7
p+ 14
p=1
29
Or, 14
p=1
14
Or, p= 29

Therefore,
 5 5 14 10 5 5 14 5
P(Y) = 7
p= .
7 29
= 29
and P(Z) = 14
p= .
14 29
= 29
.
14
Hence, the required probabilities of getting the contract for A, B and C are 29
,

10 5
29
and 29
respectively.

Problem.12
In a group of 14 males and 6 females, 8 of the males and 3 of the females,
respectively, aged above 40. What is the probability that a person selected at
random from the group is aged above 40, given that the selected person is a
female?
Solution:
Clearly, total number of persons in the group = (14+6) = 20 and 1 person can be
20!
selected in 1!.19!
ways. Therefore, the sample space contains 20 equally likely

event points.
Let, A be the event that the selected person is a female. Clearly, A contains 6
equally likely event points.
6
Therefore, P(A) = 20
.

Again, let B be the event that the selected person is aged above 40 years. It is very
clear that the number of equally likely event points contained in event (A  B) is 3.
3
Therefore, P(A  B) = 20
.

3
B P(A  B) 20 1
Now, P  A  = P(A)
= 6 =
  2
20
Hence, the probability that a person selected at random from the group is aged
1
above 40, given that the selected person is a female, is 2
.

Problem.13
A pair of fair dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting a sum of 7, when it is
known that the digit in the first die is greater than that in the second die.

Solution:
Clearly, the sample space of the experiment of throwing a pair of fair dice contains
62 = 36 equally likely event points.
Let, A be the event that the sum of the digits in the two dice is 7. Again, let B be
the event that the digit in the first die is greater than the digit in the second die.
Therefore, equally likely event points in event A are (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2),
(6,1) and number of equally likely event points in event A = 6.
6 1
Therefore, P(A) = 36
= 6

On other hand, equally likely event points in event B are (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1),
(6,1), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2), (4,3), (5,3), (6,3), (5,4), (6,4), (6,5) and number of
equally likely event points in event B = 15.
15 5
Now, P(B) = 36
= 12

and it is very clear that (A  B) = {(4,3), (5,2), (6,1)}

3 1
P(A  B) = 36
= 12
.

1
A P(A  B) 1
Hence, P  B  = P(B) = 125 = .
  5
12
Therefore, the probability of getting a sum of 7, when it is known that the digit in
1
the first die is greater than that in the second die is 5
.

Problem.14
Three bags contain respectively 3 white, 2 red balls; 7 white, 3 red balls; and
5white, 3red balls. If a bag is selected at random and one ball is drawn from it,
what is the probability that it will be a white ball?
Solution:

Let A1, A2 and A3 are the events of choosing the first, the second and the third bag
respectively and X be the event of drawing a white ball from the chosen bag. Then
the occurrence of event X depends on the occurrence of one the mutually exclusive
and mutually exhaustive events A1, A2 and A3.

Now,
1
P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 3
3!
 X  1!.2! 3
and P  A =
5! = 5
,
 1
1!.4!
7!
 X  7
P  A  = 1!.6! = and
 2  10! 10
1!.9!
5!
 X  5
P  A  = 1!.4! =
 3  8! 8
1!.7!
 Now, X = (A1  X)  (A2  X)  (A3  X).

Therefore, P(X) = P(A1  X)  P(A2  X)  P(A3  X)

Or, P(X) = P(A1  X) + P(A2  X) + P(A3  X)

[As per the total theorem of
probability]

 X   X   X 
Or, P(X) = P(A1). P  A  + P(A2). P  A  + P(A3). P  A
 1  2  3

1 3 1 7 1 5 77
Or, P(X) = .
3 5
+ .
3 10
+ .
3 8
= 120

77
Therefore, the probability of drawing a white ball from the chosen bag is 120
.

Problem.15
A bag contains 5 red and 4 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag and
put into another bag which contains 3 red and 7 black balls. A ball is drawn
randomly from the second bag, what is the probability that it is red?

Solution:
Let, A and B are two events of choosing red ball from the 1st bag and black ball
from the same bag respectively.
5! 4!
1!.4! 5 1!.3! 4
Therefore, P(A) = 9! = 9
and P(B) = 9! = 9
1!.8! 1!.8!
Let, C be the event of choosing red ball from 2nd bag after picking up a ball from 1st
bag.
Therefore, C = (A  C)  (B  C)
Or, P(C) = P[(A  C)  (B  C)]
Or, P(C) = P(A  C) + P(B  C) [As [(A  C) and (B  C) are mutually
exclusive]

C C
Or, P(C) = P(A). P  A  + P(B). P  B 
   

4!
C 1!.3! 4
Therefore, the conditional probability of C = P  A  = 11! = when a red ball
  11
1!.10!

C
has been picked up from the 1st bag and the conditional probability of C = P  B  =
 

3!
1!.2! 3
11! = 11
when a black ball has been picked up from the 1st bag.
1!.10!

5 4 4 3 32
Hence, P(C) = .
9 11
+ .
9 11
= 99
Exercises:

1. Determine the probability p, or an estimate of it, for each of the following

events:
(a) A king, ace, jack of clubs, or queen of diamonds appears in drawing a single
card from a well-shuffled ordinary deck of cards.
(b) The sum 8 appears in a single toss of a pair of fair dice.
(c) A nondefective bolt will be found next if out of 600 bolts already examined, 12
were defective.
(d ) A 7 or 11 comes up in a single toss of a pair of fair dice.
(e) At least 1 head appears in 3 tosses of a fair coin.

2. A marble is drawn at random from a box containing 10 red, 30 white, 20 blue,

and 15 orange marbles. Find the probability that it is (a) orange or red, (b) not red
or blue, (c) not blue, (d) white, (e) red, white, or blue.
 3. A box contains 2 red and 3 blue marbles. Find the probability that if two
marbles are drawn at random (without replacement), (a) both are blue, (b) both are
red, (c) one is red and one is blue.

4. Find the probability of drawing 3 aces at random from a deck of 52 ordinary

cards if the cards are (a) replaced, (b) not replaced.

5. If at least one child in a family with 2 children is a boy, what is the probability
that both children are boys?

6. Box I contains 3 red and 5 white balls, while Box II contains 4 red and 2 white
balls. A ball is chosen at random from the first box and placed in the second box
without observing its color. Then a ball is drawn from the second box. Find the
probability that it is white.

7. A box contains 3 blue and 2 red marbles while another box contains 2 blue and 5
red marbles. A marble drawn at random from one of the boxes turns out to be blue.
What is the probability that it came from the first box?

8. Each of three identical jewelry boxes has two drawers. In each drawer of the
first box there is a gold watch. In each drawer of the second box there is a silver
watch. In one drawer of the third box there is a gold watch while in the other there
is a silver watch. If we select a box at random, open one of the drawers and find it
to contain a silver watch, what is the probability that the other drawer has the gold
watch?
9. Urn I has 2 white and 3 black balls; Urn II, 4 white and 1 black; and Urn III, 3
white and 4 black. An urn is selected at random and a ball drawn at random is
found to be white. Find the probability that Urn I was selected.