Chapter 9

Project Analysis

9- 2

Topics Covered

ÂHow Firms Organize the Investment Process

ÂSome “what if” Questions
ÎSensitivity
Analysis
ÎScenario Analysis

ÂBreak Even Analysis

ÂReal Options and the Value of Flexibility

9- 3

Capital Budgeting Process

Capital Budget - The list of planned investment projects.

The Decision Process

1. Develop and rank all investment projects
• Capital Budget (bottom-up) and Strategic Planning (top-down)
2. Authorize projects based on different categories of projects
• Government regulation (e.g. pollution control project)
• Maintenance or cost reduction (e.g. machine replacement)
• Capacity expansion
• Investment for new products (depending on strategic decisions)
 9- 4

Capital Budgeting Process

ÂCapital Budgeting Problems
ÎConsistent forecasts
• Different divisions may have different prospect
• Establishing forecast of economic indicators centrally
ÎConflict of interest
• Agency problem (managers vs. stockholders)
ÎForecast bias
• Over-optimism is a common feature in financial
forecasts, for instance, large public expenditure proposals
• Politics inside the firm

9- 5

Capital Budgeting Process

ÎSelection criteria (NPV and others)
• Impose capital rationing to force the subunits to choose
good projects
• Positive NPVs are plausible only if your compnay has
some competitive advantage (e.g., first-entrant advantage,
proprietary technology, lower-cost advantage, reputation,
etc.)

9- 6

How To Handle Uncertainty

Sensitivity Analysis - Analysis of the effects of
changes in sales, costs, etc. on a project.
Scenario Analysis - Project analysis given a
particular combination of assumptions.
Simulation Analysis - Estimation of the
distribution of different possible outcomes.
Break Even Analysis - Analysis of the level of
sales (or other variable) at which the
company breaks even.
 9- 7

Sensitivity Analysis
Example
Given the expected cash flow
forecasts for future 12 years
listed on the next slide,
determine the NPV of the
project given changes in the
cash flow components using an
8% cost of capital. Assume that
all variables remain constant,
except the one you are
changing.

9- 8

Sensitivity Analysis
Example – continued (,000s)
Year 0 Years 1 - 12
Investment - 5,400
Sales 16,000
Variable Costs 13,000
Fixed Costs 2,000
Depreciation 450
Pretax profit 550
.Taxes @ 40% 220
Profit after tax 330
Operating cash flow 780
Net Cash Flow - 5,400 780
NPV= $478

9- 9

Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued

Possible Outcomes
Range
Variable Pessimistic Expected Optimistic
Investment (000s) 6,200 5,400 5,000
Sales (000s) 14,000 16,000 18,000
Var Cost (% of sales) 83% 81.25% 80%
Fixed Costs (000s) 2,100 2,000 1,900
 9- 10

Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued
NPV Calculations for Pessimistic Investment Scenario
Year 0 Years 1 - 12
Investment - 6,200
Sales 16,000
Variable Costs 13,000
Fixed Costs 2,000
Depreciation 450
Pretax profit 550
.Taxes @ 40% 220
Profit after tax 330
Operating cash flow 780
Net Cash Flow - 6,200 780
NPV= ($121)

9- 11

Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued

NPV Possibilities (change one variable at a time)

NPV (000 s )
Variable Pessimistic Expected Optimistic
Investment (000s) - 121 478 778
Sales(000s) - 1,218 478 2,174
Var Cost (% of sales) - 788 478 1,382
Fixed Costs(000s) 26 478 930

9- 12

Sensitivity Analysis
ÂInformation retrieved
ÎEstimationof sales seems to have a great impact
on NVP, and therefore additional survey data
may be needed
ÎChanges of fixed costs seems less important

ÂLimits of sensitivity analysis

ÎSensitivityanalysis gives ambiguous results
(What does optimistic or pessimistic mean?)
ÎThe underlying variables are assumed to be
independent (So the changes of the underlying
cannot be pushed too far)
 9- 13

Scenario Analysis
Example - continued
Cash Flows (years 1-12)
Base Case. Competing Store Scenario.
1. Sales 16,000,000 13,600,000
2. Variable costs 13,000,000 11,152,000
3.Fixed costs 2,000,000 2,000,000
4. Depreciation 450,000 450,000
5. Pretax profit (1 - 2 - 3 - 4) 550,000 - 2,000
6.Taxes 220,000 - 800
7. Profit after tax 330,000 - 1,200
8.Cash flow from operations (4  7) 780,000 448,000
Present value of cash flows 5,878,000 3,382,000
NPV 478,000 - 2,018,000

9- 14

Simulation Analysis
ÂSimulation analysis is an extension of scenario
analysis
ÂInstead of arbitrarily specifying a relatively
small number of scenarios, a computer generates
several thousand possible combinations of
variables via probability distributions according
to the historical data
ÂThe entire probability distribution of outcomes
can be constructed from the simulation results

9- 15

Break Even Analysis

 Sales volume is usually taken as the analyzed
variable
 The definitions of “break-even”:
1. Accounting-Based Break-Even Analysis
Î A project that breaks even gives you your investment
back
Î It does not cover the opportunity cost of the capital
(initial investment) (p.247 table 9-4 and figure 9-1)
2. NPV-Based (or Economic) Break-Even Analysis
Î It is more properly because the opportunity cost of the
capital is taken into consideration
Î The NPV at the economic break-even point is zero
 9- 16

Break Even Analysis

Example
Given the forecasted data
on the next slide, determine
the number of planes that
the company must produce
in order to break even, on
an NPV basis. The
company’s cost of capital is
10%.

9- 17

Break Even Analysis

Year 0 Years1 - 6
Investment $900
Sales 15.5xPlanes Sold
Var. Cost 8.5xPlanes Sold
Fixed Costs 175
Depreciation 900/6 = 150
Pretax Profit (7xPlanes Sold) - 325
Taxes (50%) (3.5xPlanes Sold) - 162.5
Net Profit (3.5xPlanes Sold) - 162.5
Net Cash Flow - 900 (3.5xPlanes Sold) - 12.5 (3.5xPlanes Sold) - 162.5  150

9- 18

Break Even Analysis

Answer
The break even point, is the # of Planes
sold that generates a NPV=$0.

The present value annuity factor of a 6

year cash flow at 10% is 4.355

Thus,
NPV 900  4.35 5 ( 3.5 x Planes Sold - 12.5)
 9- 19

Break Even Analysis

Answer
Solving for “Planes Sold”

0 900  4.355 (3.5 xPlanes Sold - 12.5)

Ÿ Planes Sold = 63

9- 20

EVA & Break Even

EVA = accounting profit – additional cost of capital = 0

($3.5 x planes sold - $162.50) - $56.6 = 0

=>Planes sold = 219.1 / 3.5 = 62.6

* Economic value added (EVA): Income that is measured after

deduction of the cost of capital
* The equivalent annual annuity of the capital invested in the
project is 900/4.355 = 206.6. That is 56.6 more than the
allowance for annual depreciation 150

9- 21

EVA & Break Even

 Another example
1. Variable costs 81.25 percent of sales
2. Fixed costs $2 million
3. Depreciati on $450,000
4. Pretax profit (.1875 x sales) - $2.45 million
5. Tax (as 40%) .40 x (.1875 x sales - $2.45 millions)
6. After - tax accounting profit .60 x (.1875 x sales - $2.45 millions)
7. Cost of capital over and above allowed depreciati on $266,553
8. Economic Value Added ( line 6 - line 7) .60 x (.1875 x sales - $2.45 millions) - $266,553

Î After-tax account profit is zero => sales = $13.06 million

Î Economic value added is zero => sales = $15.44 million
(p.249) (Кၨp.247 Figure 9-1ᆶp.250 Figure 9-2)
 9- 22

Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage - The degree to which
costs are fixed. (fixed costs‫܌‬՞‫ޑ‬Кख़)
Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) -
Percentage change in profits given a 1
percent change in sales.
% change in profits
DOL % change in sales

(high fixed costs => high operating leverage =>

magnify the variation in profits due to the
variation in sales)

9- 23

Operating Leverage
Example - A company has sales outcomes that range from
$16mil to $19 mil, depending on the economy. The same
conditions can produce profits in the range from $550,000 to
$1,112,000. What is the DOL?
102.2
DOL = 18.75 = 5.45
What is the DOL if the profits are from $550,000 to
$1,030,000?
87.3
DOL = 18.75 = 4.65
(compare the results in p.252 table 9-6)

9- 24

Operating Leverage

salen1% change in profits/level of profits

% change in profits
DOL % change in sales
0.01

change in profits 0.01 u (sales - variable costs)

100 u 100 u
level of profits level of profits

0.01 u (profits  fixed costs) fixed costs

100 u 1
level of profits level of profits
 9- 25

Flexibility & Real Options

ÂWhen you use DCF to value a project, you
implicitly assume the firm will hold the project
passively
ÂHowever, the real world is that if things go will, the
project may be expanded; if they go badly, the
project may be cut back or abandoned
ÂProjects that can easily be modified according to
the contingent state are more valuable than those
that don’t provide such flexibility

9- 26

Flexibility & Real Options

Decision Trees - Diagram of sequential decisions and
possible outcomes.
ÂDecision trees help companies determine their
options by showing the various choices and
outcomes.
ÂThe option to avoid a loss or produce extra profit
has value.
ÂThe ability to create an option thus has value that
can be bought or sold.

9- 27

Decision Trees
Success
Test (Invest Pursue project
$200,000) NPV=$2million

Failure

Stop project
Don’t test NPV=0

NPV=0
Î Each square represents an action or decision by the company
Î Each circle represents an outcome revealed by fate
 9- 28

Real Options
 Real Options – Rights to invest, modify,
or dispose of a capital investment project
1. Option to expand
2. Option to abandon
3. Timing option (invest now or invest latter)
4. Flexible production facilities
(dual-fired boilers)