Recent Research in Science and Technology 2014, 6(1): 62-64

ISSN: 2076-5061
Available Online: http://recent-science.com/

Analysis of rainfall data for drought investigation at Agra U.P.

Department of Farm Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, BHU Varanasi, U.P, 221005, India

Abstract
This study presents analysis of droughts at Agra district of Uttar Pradesh India. Drought conditions were assessed for yearly
time steps using rainfall data for thirty one years (1970 to 2000) at Agra station. According to the India Meteorological
department (IMD) an area/region is considered to be drought if it receives seasonal total rainfall less than 75% of its normal
value. The rainfall records of 31 years for Agra were obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Rainfall data
has been subjected to various kind of analysis including seasonal & annual rainfall departures, probability distribution and dry
spell analysis etc. For identification of drought years and the extent of deficit of annual rainfall, the annual rainfall departure
analysis has been carried out. A year is considered as drought year if the total amount of annual rainfall over an area is
deficient by more than 25% of its normal value. From the analysis it is observed that in years 1970,1986,1987,1990 and 2000
as moderate drought & years 1972 & 1979 as a severe drought occurred in Agra district, the chance of occurrence of drought
in every 10 years varies from 2 to 2.5. It means that year after every 3 to 4 year is a drought year.

Keywords: Rainfall data, Drought investigation, Agra district

INTRODUCTION

Drought is considered by many to be the most complex but component of integrated water resources management. Increasing
least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than society‘s capacity to cope more effectively with the extremes of
any other hazard (G.Hagman 1984). It is broadly defined as severe climate and water resources variability (i.e., floods and droughts) is a
water shortage. Low rainfall and fall in agricultural production has critical aspect of integrated water resources management. Shakir Ali
mainly caused droughts. A droughts impact constitutes losses of life, (2003) has reviewed the drought indices in India and concluded that
human suffering and damage to economy and environment. there is a need to test the most important drought indices in different
Droughts have been a recurring feature of the Indian climate agroecological regions of country and to select only those indices,
therefore study of Historical droughts may help in the delineation of which are appropriate for a particular agroecological region. Dracup
major areas facing drought risk and thereby management plans can et al. (1980) emphasized that the droughts are inherently regional in
be formulated by the government authorities to cope with the nature, and thus their aerial extent is an important characteristics to
disastrous effects of this hazard. However, there remains much be considered. Recently a method was developed by Tiwari et al.
confusion within the scientific and policy communities about its (2007) to characterize the meteorological drought indices using the
characteristics. It is precisely this confusion that explains, to some data of Hazaribagh. On comparison, they found that the developed
extent, the lack of progress in drought preparedness in most parts of method is more rational than existing methods of drought
the world. Drought is a slow-onset, creeping natural hazard that is a characterization. Drought is generally defined as water shortage
normal part of climate for virtually all regions of the world; it results in caused by the imbalance between water supply and demand.
serious economic, social, and environmental impacts. Drought onset Drought is generally viewed as a sustained and regionally extensive
and end are often difficult to determine, as is its severity. The occurrence of appreciably below average natural water availability,
impacts of drought are largely nonstructural and spread over a larger either in the form of precipitation, surface water runoff or ground
geographical area than are damages from other natural hazards. water Gbeckor-Kove, (1995). Drought has different meanings to
The non-structural characteristic of drought impacts has certainly different disciplines. What is drought for an agriculturist need not to
hindered the development of accurate, reliable, and timely estimates be so to a hydrologist or meteorologist. There is no universal
of severity and, ultimately, the formulation of drought preparedness definition applicable to all disciplines. It is temporary feature caused
plans by most governments. The impacts of drought, like those of by climatic fluctuations and is an extremely complicated
other hazards, can be reduced through mitigation and preparedness. phenomenon. The formation and intensity of drought are gradual and
Drought preparedness planning should be considered an essential cumulative process, which occur so slowly that they are not easily
discerned. Factors, which may induce drought, are very complex. In
addition to many factors in natural environmental conditions like
precipitation, evaporation temperature, wind, humidity, etc. the
*Corresponding Author hydrological conditions such as surface water and ground water etc.;
Shri Kant
Department of Farm Engineering, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, BHU
the agricultural condition such as soil behavior, cropping pattern,
Varanasi, U.P, 221005, India crop varieties and growing period etc.; and the geographic condition
like topography etc. also contribute to drought. The recurrence of
Email: [email protected] drought over many parts of the country in recent years caused
unprecedented economic losses and great suffering to the affected
Recent Research in Science and Technology 2014, 6(1): 62-64 63

areas. They not only reduced the agricultural production but also inadequate for plants and / or animals needs.
threatened country with famine. Drought causes innumerable
problems immediately or with the time lag as the economy gradually Assessment of Drought
experiences the adverse shock of the phenomenon. The occurrence
of drought leads to reduction in stream-flow, and consequent Years Drought can be defined as a temporary harmful and
reduction in reservoir and tank levels and depletion of soil moisture widespread lack of available water with respect to specific need. It
and groundwater. This on a continuous basis leads to reduce implies a deficiency of rainfall of sufficient magnitude over a
availability of fodder, decline in agricultural production and livestock prolonged duration so as to interfere with some phases of regional
wealth, besides causing misery to people inhabiting these areas. The economic activities. According to the India Meteorological
drought characteristics and associated problems vary from area to department (IMD) an area / region is considered to be drought if it
area, depending upon the amount of variability of available water receives seasonal total rainfall less than 75% of its normal value. In
supplies and the demand of water for specified users. the present study attempt has been made to assess the drought
situation in Agra district of U.P. Agra is an important district in
Classification of drought northern region of U.P., where the occurrence of recumbent drought
have badly affected the agricultural production and economy of the
Generally the drought could be clustered into meteorological area. The rainfall records for the Agra district were obtained from the
drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and societal India Meteorological department (IMD). Rainfall data has been
/economic drought (Wilhite and Glantz , 1987). Meteorological subjected to various kind of analysis including seasonal & annual
drought is characterized by the water storage induced by the rainfall departures, probability distribution and dry spell analysis etc.
imbalance between precipitation and evaporation, in particular, water
shortage based solely on precipitation e.g. rainless situation. MATERIAL AND METHODS
Meteorological drought over an area is defined as a situation when
seasonal rainfall over the area is less than 75% of its long term The daily rainfall data of thirty four years (1970 to 2000), the
normal. It is further classified as moderate droughtǁ if the rainfall rainfall records for Agra district were obtained from the India
deficit is between 26to 50% and severe droughtǁ when it exceeds Meteorological department (IMD). The Agra district is located on the
50%.A list of some of the definitions is given in WMO (1975). bank of river Yamuna in the northern region of Uttar Pradesh and lies
Agricultural drought refers to the water storage caused by the between north latitude 27º11' to 27º19' and east longitude 78º01' to
imbalance between soil available water and the water requirement of 78º02' and elevation of above 63.4 m above mean sea level. The
crops. It is related to physiological drought determined from main occupation of the district is agriculture and pearl millet,
conditions of crops, natural vegetation, livestock pasture and other sorghum and potato are the chief grown crops. The average annual
agricultural systems. The agricultural drought occurs when water rain fall in Agra is 663.8 mm. the rainfall in this track is received from
deficit severely affects the agricultural system as a whole. Some south western monsoon. According to the India Meteorological
agriculturists have measured the effect of water deficit in terms of department (IMD) an area / region is considered to be drought if it
economical losses induced by the deficit. The economical loss can receives seasonal total rainfall less than 75% of its normal value.
include factor like drop in crop production, livestock deaths industrial Rainfall data has been subjected to various kind of analysis including
losses, plants not planted, changes in land use, emergency relief seasonal & annual rainfall departures, probability distribution and dry
expenses etc. Hydrological drought is represented by the water spell analysis etc.
shortage formed by the imbalance budget of surface water and
underground water. It is mainly affected by various hydrological Calculation of departure
factors such as surface run off, shallow and deep underground water
etc. The water resources in the form of precipitation, infiltration, river Step-1 - Take the annual discharge data (mm) of any district.
systems and other surface /ground water, inflow/outflow system may Step-2 - Firstly we will calculate the mean of annual rainfall data.
be included in the hydrological water balance equation as fallow: Step-3 - Now we calculate the standard deviations, skewness,
maximum, minimum and median of the rainfall data.
W=G – L Step-4 - For calculating the departure we will substrate the annual
rainfall data of a year from the mean rainfall of the year.
Where, Step-5 - Now we will find out the 75% of mean rainfall.
W=available water for the system use. Step-6 -Then we calculate the drought year .for calculating the
G=total incoming water of the system (precipitation, infiltration, drought year we will to compare the annual rainfall .if the value of
storage, etc) annual rainfall of year with 75%of mean rainfall, then it is called
L=total water loss (evaporation, run off etc.) drought year but if the value of annual rainfall of year is greater than
the 75% of mean rainfall then it is called the no drought year.
Hydrological drought occurs when the water demand by the Step-7 - After calculating the drought year, we calculate the
hydrological system greatly exceed the water available from the departure from mean rainfall. It is calculated with help of below given
system use (W)from the water balance equation it is clear that formula.
precipitation is the most common natural factor which may induce
hydrological drought. Finally socio-economic drought is associated Departure from mean rainfall
with the supply and demand of some economic goods. It occurs as = (annual rainfall of year - mean rainfall) / Mean rainfall*100
an interaction between agricultural activity (i.e. demand) and natural
events (i.e. supply) which results in a water volume or quality Step-8 - Finally we will calculate the class of severity of the particular
64 Shri Kant et al.,

block. If the value of departure from mean rainfall is less than -25% Fig (a-c). Percentage annual rainfall departure in different blocks of Agra district.
then no drought condition, but if the value of departure from mean
rainfall is coming between the -25 to -50%then it is called the CONCLUSION
moderate drought condition. If the value is generate then -50% then
the condition of drought is severe for the particular area or block. The occurrence of drought in India is not recent phenomenon.
Percentage departure of rainfall from Intensity of drought In order to find out whether the sufficient rainfall areas in Agra district
normal are affected by the rainfall deficiency, the 31 years of rainfall data
0.0 to -25.0 No drought condition were analyzed to assess the seasonal and yearly drought condition
-26.0 to -50.0 Moderate drought condition in the Agra district, U.P.
More than -50.0 Severe drought condition
1. The average frequency of drought recurrence in the area on
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION the basis of annual departure is 3 to 4 years, some blocks are
severely affected by drought & some are moderately affected.
Annual Rainfall Departure For identification of drought years
2. The year 1970, 1986, 1987, 1990 & 2000 are found to be
and the extent of deficit of annual rainfall, the annual rainfall
moderately drought affected year in the period of 31 years on
departure analysis has been carried out. A year is considered as
the basis of annual analysis.
drought year if the total amount of annual rainfall over an area is
deficient by more than 25% of its normal value. The percentage 3. The year 1972 & 1979 are found to be severely drought
annual rainfall departures in all blocks of Agra district are given in affected year in the period of 31 years on the basis of annual
Figure. From the annual rainfall departure analysis, the drought analysis.
years have been identified and its average frequency of drought is 4. The trend in the rainfall showed that the rainfall is decreasing
presented in Table. From the analysis it is observed that in years in the area.
1970,1986,1987,1990 and 2000 as moderate drought & years 1972
& 1979 as a severe drought occurred in Agra district, the chance of REFERENCES
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