unit 1:Introduction to simulation

1. Simulation:

 Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real world process or system over time.
 Simulation models help us to study the behavior of system as it evolves
 models keeps the set of assumption concerning the operation of the system
 Assumptions are expressed in terms of mathematical, logical and symbolic relationship
between the entities or object of interest of the system.
 Simulation modeling can be used both as an analysis tools to predict the performance of the
new system and also predict the effect of changes to existing system.
 simulation can be done by hand or computer its keeps the history of system
 Simulation produce the set of data is used to estimate the measures of performance of
system.

1.1 When Simulation is the Appropriate Tool:

 Study of and experimentation with the internal interactions of a complex system, or of a

subsystem within a complex system.
 Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and the model’s
behavior can be observer.
 The knowledge gained in designing a simulation model can be of great value
toward suggesting improvement in the system under investigation.
 By changing simulation inputs and observing the resulting outputs, valuable insight may be
obtained into which variables are most important and how variables interact.
 Simulation can be used as a pedagogical (teaching) device to reinforce analytic solution
methodologies.
 Can be used to experiment with new designs or policies prior to implementation, so as to
prepare for what may happen.
 Can be used to verify analytic solutions.
 By simulating different capabilities for a machine, requirements can be determined.
 Simulation models designed for training, allow learning without the cost and disruption
of on-the-job instructions.
 Animation shows a system in simulated operation so that the plan can be visualized.
 The modern system (factory, water fabrication plant, service organization, etc) is so
complex that the interactions can be treated only through simulation

1.2 When Simulation is Not Appropriate

 Simulation should not be used when the problem can be solved using common sense.
 Simulation should not be used if the problem can be solved analytically.
 Simulation should not be used if it is easier to perform direct experiments.
 Simulation should not be used, if the costs exceeds savings.
 Simulation should not be used if the resources or time are not available.
 No data is available, not even estimate simulation is not advised.
  If there is not enough time or the people are not available, simulation is not appropriate.
 If managers have unreasonable expectation say, too much soon – or the power of
simulation is over estimated, simulation may not be appropriate.
 If system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined, simulation is not appropriate

1.3Advantages of Simulation
1. New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flow, etc can be
explored without disrupting the ongoing operations of the real system.
2. New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems can be tested
without committing resources for their acquisition.
3. Hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur can be tested for feasibility.
4. Time can be compressed or expanded allowing for a speedup or slowdown of the
phenomena under investigation.
5. Insight can be obtained about the interaction of variables.
6. Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables to the performance of the system.
7. Bottleneck analysis can be performed indication where work-in process, information materials
and so on are being excessively delayed.
8. A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates rather than how
individuals think the system operates.
9. “what-if” questions can be answered. Useful in the design of new systems.

1.4Disadvantages of simulation
1. Model building requires special training. It is an art that is learned over time and through
experience.
2. If two models are constructed by two competent individuals, they may have similarities,
but it is highly unlikely that they will be the same.
3. Simulation results may be difficult to interpret. Since most simulation outputs are
essentially random variables (they are usually based on random inputs), it may be hard to
determine whether an observation is a result of system interrelationships or randomness.
4. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive. Skimping on
resources for modeling and analysis may result in a simulation model or analysis that is not
sufficient for the task.
5. Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical solution is possible, or even preferable.
This might be particularly true in the simulation of some waiting lines where closed-form
queueing models are available.

1.5Applications of Simulation
 Manufacturing application
 Semiconductor manufacturing
 construction engineering
 military application
 Business process simulation
 Human system
1. Manufacturing Applications
 Analysis of electronics assembly operations
 Design and evaluation of a selective assembly station for high-precision scroll compressor
shells
 Comparison of dispatching rules for semiconductor manufacturing using large-facility
models
 Evaluation of cluster tool throughput for thin-film head production
 Determining optimal lot size for a semiconductor back-end factory
 Optimization of cycle time and utilization in semiconductor test manufacturing
 Analysis of storage and retrieval strategies in a warehouse
 Investigation of dynamics in a service-oriented supply chain
 Model for an Army chemical munitions disposal facility
2. Semiconductor Manufacturing
 Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility models
 The corrupting influence of variability
 A new lot-release rule for wafer fabs
 Assessment of potential gains in productivity due to proactive retile management
 Comparison of a 200-mm and 300-mm X-ray lithography cell
 Capacity planning with time constraints between operations
 300-mm logistic system risk reduction
3. Construction Engineering
 Construction of a dam embankment
 Trenchless renewal of underground urban infrastructures
 Activity scheduling in a dynamic, multi project setting
 Investigation of the structural steel erection process
 Special-purpose template for utility tunnel construction
4. Military Application
 Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in an Army recruiting station
 Design and test of an intelligent controller for autonomous underwater vehicles
 Modeling military requirements for non war fighting operations
 Using adaptive agent in U.S Air Force pilot retention
5. Logistics, Transportation, and Distribution Applications
 Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning algorithm
 Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance
 Parametric modeling in rail-capacity planning
 Analysis of passenger flows in an airport terminal
 Proactive flight-schedule evaluation
 Logistics issues in autonomous food production systems for extended-duration space
exploration
 Sizing industrial rail-car fleets
 Product distribution in the newspaper industry
 Design of a toll plaza
  Choosing between rental-car locations
 Quick-response replenishment
6. Business Process Simulation
 Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate assignment
 Product development program planning
 Reconciliation of business and systems modeling
 Personnel forecasting and strategic workforce planning
7. Human Systems and Healthcare
 Modeling human performance in complex systems
 Studying the human element in air traffic control
 Modeling front office and patient care in ambulatory health care practices
 Evaluating hospital operations b/n the emergency department and a medical
 Estimating maximum capacity in an emergency room and reducing length of stay in that
room.
1.6 Systems and System Environment
System:
System is defined as a group of object that are joined together in some regular interaction or
interdependence toward the accomplishment of same.

System environment:
A system is often affected by changes occurring outside the system,Such changes are said to
occure in the system environment.

1.7 Components of a System

1) Entity: An entity is an object of interest in a system.
Ex: In the factory system, departments, orders, parts and products are the entities.
2) Attribute: An attribute denotes the property of an entity.
Ex: Quantities for each order, type of part, or number of machines in a department
are attributes of factory system.
3) Activity: Represent a time period of specified length
Ex: Manufacturing process of the department.
4) State of the System: The state of a system is defined as the collection of variables
necessary to describe a system at any time, relative to the objective of study.
5) Event: An event is defined as an instantaneous occurrence that may change the state of
the system.
Endogenous : IS used to descried activites and events occurring with in the
system
Exogenous: Is used to descried activites and events in the environment that
affect the system.
Examples of system and components
System Entities Attributes Activities Events State variables
Banking Customers Checking-account Making Arrival; No. of busy tellers; no. of
balance deposits departure customers waiting.
Rapid rail Riders Origination; Traveling Arrival at No. of riders waiting at each
destination station; arrival station; No. of riders in transit
at destination
Production Machines Speed; capacity; Welding; Breakdown Status of machines (busy, idle
breakdown rate stamping or down)
length
Inventory Warehouse Capacity Withdrawing Demand Levels of inventory;
backlogged demands

1.8 Discrete and Continuous Systems

Discrete System:
 Is one in which the state variable change only at a discrete
set of points in time.
 The bank is an example, since the state variable the
number of customer in the bank changes only when a
customer arrives or when the service provided a customer
is completed.

Continuous system:
 Is one in which the state variable change continuous over
time.
 head of water behind a dam, during and for some time
after a rain storm water flow into the lake behind the dam.
 1.9 Model of a system
 A model is defined as a representation of a system for the purpose of studying the system.
 It is necessary to consider only those aspects of the system that affect the problem under
investigation.
 These aspects are represented in a model, and by definition it is a simplification of the system.
Types of Models:
 Mathematical or physical model
 Static and dynamic model
 deterministic and stochastic model
 discrete and continuous model

1.Mathematical or physical model:

Mathematical model uses symbolic notation and equations to represents a system
2.Static model:
A static simulation models represent a system at a particular point in time it is also
called as monte carlo simulation.
3.dynamic model:
A dynamic simulation models represent system as the change over time. simulation of a
bank from 9 to 4 is an example
4.Deterministic model:
A simulation variable that contain no random variable, have a set of known input which
will result in a unique set of output.
5.Stochastic model:
A stochastic simulation model has one or more random variable as input. Random
input lead to random output.Since the output are random they can be consider only as
estimates of the true characteristics of a model.
6.Discrete System:
  Is one in which the state variable change only at a discrete set of points in time.
 The bank is an example, since the state variable the number of customer in the
bank changes only when a customer arrives or when the service provided a
customer is completed.

7.Continuous system:
 Is one in which the state variable change continuous over time.
 head of water behind a dam, during and for some time after a rain storm water
flow into the lake behind the dam.

1.10 Discrete event system simulation:

 The model of system in which state variable changes only at a discrete set of points in
times
 The simulation models are analyzed by numerical rather than by analytical methods.
 Analytical methods employ the deductive reasoning of mathematics to solve the model.
E.g.: Differential calculus can be used to determine the minimum cost policy for some
inventory models.
 Numerical methods use computational procedures and are ‘runs’, which is generated
based on the model assumptions and observations are collected to be analyzed and
to estimate the true system performance measures.
 Real-world simulation is so vast, whose runs are conducted with the help of computer.
Much insight can be obtained by simulation manually which is applicable for small
 systems.

1.11Steps in a simulation study:

1. Problem formulation
2. Setting of objectives and overall project plan
3. model conceptualization
4. data Collection
5. model translation
6. verified
7. validated
8. Experimental design
9. production runs and analysis
10. more runs
11. documentation and reporting
12. Implementation

1. Problem formulation:
 Every study should begin with a statement of the problem.
 If the statement is provided by the policy makers or those that have the problem, The
analyst must ensure that the problem being described is clearly understood
 If the problem statement is being developed by the analyst, it is important that the policy
makers understand and agree with the formulation.

2. Setting of objective and overall project plan:

 The objectives indicate the questions to be answered by simulation.
 At this point a determination should be made concerning whether simulation is the
appropriate methodology. Assuming that it is appropriate,
 the overall project plan should include the study in terms of
 A statement of the alternative systems
 A method for evaluating the effectiveness of these alternatives
 Plans for the study in terms of the number of people involved
 Cost of the study
 The number of days required to accomplish each phase of the work with the
anticipated results.

3. Model Conceptualization:
 The construction of a model of a system is probably as much art as science.
 The art of modeling is enhanced by ability to have following:
 To abstract the essential features of a problem.
 To select and modify basic assumptions that characterizes the system.
 To enrich and elaborate the model until a useful approximation results.

4. Data Collection:
  There is a constant interplay between the construction of the model and the
collection of the needed input data.
 As complexity of the model changes the required data elements may also
change.
 Since data collection takes such a large portion of the total time required to
perform a simulation it is necessary to begin it as early as possible.
5. Model Translation:
 Since most real world system result in model that require a great deal of information
storage and computation, the model must be entered into a computer recognizable format.
 we use term program even though it is possible to accomplish the desired result in many
instances with little or no actual coding.

6.Varified:
 It pertains to the computer program and checking the performance.
 If the input parameters and logical structure and correctly represented, verification is
completed.

7.Validated:
 validation is the determination that a model is an accurate representation of the real
system.
 Is usually achieved through the calibration of the model an iterative process of comparing
the model to actual system behavior and using the discrepancy between the two and the
insights gained to improve the model.
 This process is repeated until model accuracy is judges acceptable.

8.Experimental Design:
 The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined. For each system design,
decisions need to be made concerning

a. Length of the initialization period

b. Length of simulation runs
c. Number of replication to be made of each run

9.Production runs and analysis:

 They are used to estimate measures of performance for the system designs that are
being simulated.

10.More runs:

 Based on the analysis of runs that have been completed. The analyst determines if
additional runs are needed and what design those additional experiments should follow.
11.Documentation and reporting:
Two types of documentation. Program documentation and Process documentation
 Program documentation: Can be used again by the same or different
analysts to understand how the program operates
 Process documentation: This enable to review the final formulation and
alternatives, results of the experiments and the recommended solution to the
problem. The final report provides a vehicle of certification.

12.Implementation:

Success depends on the previous steps. If the model user has been thoroughly involved and
understands the nature of the model and its outputs, likelihood of a vigorous implementation is
enhanced.
1.12 Simulation of queuing systems
A Queuing system is described by its calling population, the nature of its arrivals, the service
mechanism, the system capacity, and queuing discipline.

Simulation is often used in the analysis of queuing models. In a simple typical queuing model,
shown in

 In the single-channel queue, the calling population is infinite; that is, if a unit leaves the
calling population and joins the waiting line or enters service, there is no change in the
arrival rate of other units that may need service.
 Arrivals for service occur one at a time in a random fashion; once they join the waiting
line, they are eventually served.
 The system capacity has no limit, meaning that any number of units can wait in line. Finally,
units are served in the order of their arrival (often called FIFO: first in, first out) by a single
server or channel.
 Arrivals and services are defined by the distributions of the time between arrivals and the
distribution of service times, respectively.
 The state of the system: the number of units in the system and the status of the server, busy or
idle.
 An event: a set of circumstances that cause an instantaneous change in the state of the system.
In a single-channel queueing system there are only two possible events that can affect
the state of the system.
 The simulation clock is used to track simulated time.
 The arrival event occurs when a unit enters the system. The flow diagram for the arrival event
is shown in

 The unit may find the server either idle or busy; therefore, either the unit begins service
immediately, or it enters the queue for the server. The unit follows the course of action shown
in fig 2.4.
 If the server is busy, the unit enters the queue. If the server is idle and the queue is empty,
the unit begins service. It is not possible for the server to be idle and the queue to be
nonempty.

 After the completion of a service the service may become idle or remain busy with the
next unit. The relationship of these two outcomes to the status of the queue is shown in fig
2.5. If the queue is not empty, another unit will enter the server and it will be busy
Problems:

Single channel queuing system problem formulas:

1. Time Customer wait in queue= Time service begin – Arrival Time

2. Time Service End= Service time + Time service begin
3. Time customer Spend In system= Time service end-Arrival Time
4. Idel Time of Server=Time service Begin(N)-Time Service end(N-1)

Standard Formulas:

1.Average waiting time(i.e customer wait)=total time customer wait in queue / Total number of
customer

2.Probability(Wait i.e customer wait)=Number of Customer who wait / Total number of

customer

3.Probability of idle server(idle time of server)=total idle time of server / total run time of
simulation

4.average service time=total service time/total number of customer

5.average times between arrivals=sum of all times between arrival/number of arrivals-1

6.Average waiting time those who wait in queue=total time customer wait in queue/total
number of customer who wait

7.Average time customer spend In the system=Total time customer spend in system/total
number of customer