fmso.leavenworth.army.

mil/oewatch
Vol. 5 Issue #05 May 2015

Foreign Military Studies Office

OEWATCHFForeign News & Perspectives of the Operational Environment

oreign News & Perspectives of the Operational Environment

Special Look :
BMPT “TERMINATOR”
& '
Day Parade-70th Anniversary
RUSSIA MIDDLE EAST INDO-PACIFIC ASIA
3 The BMPT Terminator: A New Type of Vehicle 35 Qassem Soleimani Voted Man of Year in Iran 60 India Evacuates Citizens from Yemen
5 Cyber Troops in the Russian Ministry of Defense 36 Iran Releases Qassem Soleimani Documentary – Indicators of Operational Strengths and
7 Details of Russia’s Spring 2015 Conscription 37 Commemorating Afghan Shi’ites Killed in Syria Weakness
Campaign 38 Sisi’s Gamble 62 Philippines Police Commandos in Costly
9 Force Structure of Russian Military Units in 40 Tunisian Border Security Counterterror Raid
Crimea 42 What is Yemen’s Southern Resistance? 65 Thailand Reinforces Relations
12 Commentary on Iran Nuclear Talks from
Kremlin-Controlled Site AFRICA KOREA
13 Can Russia Rehabilitate Fighters 44 A One Sided Wall: Kenya Builds Security Barrier 67 North Korean Leader at Russian Victory Parade
Who Return to Caucasus from Syria and Iraq? Somalia Doesn’t Want
14 Underlying Tensions in Armenia-Russia 45 Underlying Causes of Xenophobic Attacks in CHINA
Relations South Africa 69 With Increasing Confidence, China’s Newest
15 The Northern Navy’s Two Step Strategy 46 Fragile Hope for a Fragile Peace: Submarine About to be Unveiled
for Underwater Anti-Sabotage Operations Central African Republic 70 Will Pyongyang Allow Access to Other
16 Surprise Readiness Tests 47 New Nigerian President Buhari and the War on Countries in Pursuit of Rare Earth Elements?
18 Victory Day Parade-2015 Boko Haram 71 Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps
20 Extreme Sport: Arctic Airborne Exercises Continues to Grow
21 Ice Airstrip for Transport Jockeys LATIN AMERICA 72 China Considers Cyber Warfare and the Law of
22 Russian Artic Air Defense Upgrades 48 FARC is Still Considered a Terrorist Organization Armed Conflict
23 Russian Air Defense in the Arctic 49 Might Evo Morales’ Bolivarianism be 73 China’s Silk Road: Logic of the State Leaves
24 Russian Robots Vulnerable? Little Room for Market’s ‘Invisible Hand’
25 Russian Command and Control Procedures 50 People Vote with Their Feet if They Can 75 A Chinese Perspective on Possible Lifting of
under Adjustment 51 Latin America as an Emerging Cyber-Crime Iran Sanctions
Threat Region
EUROPE 52 Brazil is Home to the Largest Number CENTRAL ASIA
26 Heavy Shelling Near Mariupol of Cyber-Attacks in Latin America 76 Islamic State Causes Russia to Ramp up Central
27 Establishing Command and Control 53 Neologisms Born from Narco Culture in Mexico Asian Security
over Volunteer Units in Ukraine 55 The Sinaloa Cartel Remains Intact Following 78 Russia Increases Military Presence in Tajikistan
29 Troubles for the G36 – the Standard Rifle of the Arrest of Chapo Guzman One Year Ago 79 A Paramilitary Organization in Kyrgyzstan?
German Federal Armed Forces 56 Argentine Air Force Considering Gripen 80 The Capabilities of Kazakhstan’s Caspian Border
Purchase Guards Detachment
TURKEY 57 Chinese Vultures Circle as Petrobras Rots 81 The Impact of Indian Security Cooperation in
30 The Emergence of a Joint Arab Alliance? 58 Political Turmoil Heightens in Brazil Central Asia
32 Perspectives on Turkey’s support for the
Saudi-led coalition in Yemen
33 The Future of Turkey’s UAVs
34 Turkey Facing Pressure for Role as a Militant
Transit Point
 The Foreign Military Studies Office
OE Watch
(FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, Foreign News & Perspectives
is part of the US Army Training and of the Operational Environment
Doctrine Command G-2’s Operational Volume 5 | Issue 05 May | 2015

Environment Enterprise and for over 25 Regional Analysts and

years has conducted open source research Expert Contributors
on foreign perspectives of defense and
security issues, emphasizing those topics Africa 
Robert Feldman
Jacob Zenn
that are understudied or unconsidered.
Operational Environment Watch provides Middle East Michael Rubin
translated selections and analysis from Lucas Winter
a diverse range of foreign articles and Turkey Karen Kaya
other media that our analysts and expert
contributors believe will give military China, Korea Cindy Hurst

and security professionals an added Youngjun Kim

Tim Thomas
dimension to their critical thinking about Jacob Zenn
the Operational Environment.
India, Southeast Asia Ivan Welch

Mexico, South America Geoff Demarest

Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, Brenda Fiegel
under copyright have not been used. All articles published Kevin Grilo
in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided
in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Central Asia Michael Rose
media. Matthew Stein
FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics
to these articles to conform to organizational standards. Russia, Eastern Europe Chuck Bartles
Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation Anna Borshchevskaya
style are those of the author. Christina Chadwick
The views expressed are those of the author and Adam Croft
do not represent the official policy or position of the Ray Finch
Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the Les Grau
US Government. Release of this information does not James Harvey
imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Alyssa Jackson
government to provide any additional information on any Emily Kangas
topic presented herein.
The Operational Environment Watch is archived and Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm
available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Editors Ray Finch
Harry Orenstein
Design Editor Hommy Rosado
Contact FMSO at:

[email protected]
RUSSIA Top

The BMPT Terminator: A New Type of Vehicle March 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Russia’s recent

announcement that the Armata heavy track
chassis would be entering field trials as part
of the T-14 main battle tank, and that the T-14
would be displayed in the annual May military
parade has fueled some speculation about what
other weapons systems could find themselves
mounted on the Armata chassis. One idea is
that the BMPT Terminator could be reborn,
but this time on an Armata chassis. Despite
the closeness of the acronyms, the BMPT is
not classified by Russia as an infantry fighting
vehicle (BMP— боевая машина пехоты
(БМП), but instead as a tank combat support
vehicle (BMPT) (боевая машина поддержки
танков (БМПТ). The accompanying article Tank Combat Support Vehicle (BMPT) Source: VitalyKuzmin.net
notes that the system is also referred as a
combat fire support vehicle (BMOP— боевая
машина огневой поддержки (БМОП). There Source: “Lev Romanov, “Recall the ‘Terminator,’” Oborona, March 2015, http://www.
has been some speculation this system was oborona.ru/includes/periodics/armament/2015/0216/180015213/detail.shtml, accessed 15
developed to skirt restrictions on tanks and April 2015.
infantry fighting vehicles found in the Treaty
on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe,
A Total Recall of the ‘Terminator’
from which Russia has recently withdrawn,
but is unlikely, as Russian armored personnel The civil war eastern Ukraine revived army specialist’s interest in (боевым машинам
carriers (BTR—бронетранспортер (БТР) and поддержки танков (БМПТ) Tank Combat Support Vehicles (BMPTs), or as they are
BMPs are designed to transport infantry squads now called боевым машинам огневой поддержки (БМОП) Combat Fire Support
to the battlefield, dismount their squad, and Vehicles (BMOPs). During fighting in the Donbas, Infantry Fighting Vehicles (BMP)
then begin fighting alongside their dismounted and Armored Personnel Carriers (BTRs) showed to have survivability problems in
squad. The BMPT has only a five-person crew
opposition to Anti-Tank Guided Missile (PTURs) and hand-held Antitank Grenades
who are not intended to exit the vehicle.
(RPGs). In turn, the main battle tanks [that these vehicles supported] were provided
Development of the BMPT was in direct insufficient combat power to fend off enemies armed with PTURs and RPGs, especially
response to Russia’s counterinsurgency in urban settings.
experience in the North Caucuses. In 1995 the
131st Maykop Brigade was almost completely In conflicts it would be useful to have such a capability, but was earlier rejected
wiped out when the armored column became by former officials of the Ministry of Defence… The BMPT “Terminator” was
mired in the streets of Grozny as Chechen created by the designers of the Ural Transport Machine-Building Design Bureau
grenadiers destroyed approximately 50 tanks, (Uralvagonzavod)…on the basis of the T-90A main battle tank. This vehicle was
BMPs and BTRs. Russia quickly realized designed for effective suppression of enemy personnel equipped with grenade launchers,
additional capabilities were required to engage anti-tank systems, and small arms. The BMOP is capable of firing on the move and and
the enemies in urban environments. (As an
can fill some tank roles such as the destruction of armored personnel carriers, infantry
ad hoc measure, the Russians used Shilka
fighting vehicles, pillboxes, bunkers and other hardened targets.
self-propelled antiaircraft guns to provide
additional firepower, as the Shilka’s guns The BMOP has great firepower. The unmanned turret has twin 2A42 30-mm automatic
could traverse higher angles, enabling it to fire cannons (900 rounds of ammunition), a 7.62-mm machine gun, and four anti-tank
upon targets on upper stories and roof tops, missiles “Ataka-T” with laser beam, and equipped with a thermobaric or shaped-charge
unlike the tanks.) In addition to urban warfare warhead. In the front, two 30-mm automatic grenade launcher AGS-17D (with 300
applications, the adoption of a BMPT also
rounds)…The crew of “Terminator” is composed of five members: commander, gunner,
seems to make sense for more conventional
the driver and two operators grenade launcher systems…
operations. Technological improvements have
made it possible for infantryman to carry
antitank missiles (PTURs) capable of damaging (continued)
or destroying even the most advanced main

OE Watch May 2015 3

RUSSIA Top

Continued: The BMPT Terminator: A New Type of Vehicle

battle tanks. BTRs or BMPs make easy targets

After testing BMPT Russian military experts believe the combat effectiveness of a
for PTURs, as they are easily destroyed due
to their significantly lighter armor, and as single tank support combat vehicle exceeds that of two motorized-rifle platoons (six
an additional hindrance can have difficulty BMPs/40 personnel). The introduction of “terminator” of the tank battalion would
keeping up with tanks in certain terrain. For increase the effectiveness of combat units by 30%. The military had planned to use the
these reasons, Russia has considered the BMPT machine as follows: two tanks and one BMPT in the field and two BMPTs and one tank
as a way to provide needed support to tanks when fighting in urban environments…
in differing conditions (they could also be
equipped with mine or obstacle plows), while
not suffering from the mobility and protection
issues that BTRs and BMPs can have.

If BMPTs are integrated into the Russian order of battle, Russian force structure, tactics, and doctrine will likely change for both tank and
motorized rifle units. Conventional wisdom requires tanks to be supported by dismounted infantry while in urban settings in order to protect
them from PTURs. Unfortunately for the dismounted infantry troops, they are exposed to small-arms fire and explosives while providing
this support. The BMPT could possibly eliminate or reduce this need for dismounted infantry. Although tactical deployment of BMPTs and
tanks are currently only in the theoretical stages for the Russian Ground Forces, some commentaries have suggested a 2:1 ratio in urban
environments and a 1:2 ratio in more conventional environments would be likely employments. The accompanying article claims the BMPT
has approximately the same combat power as 6 BMPs and 40 personnel. On an organizational level, BMPTs would likely be found as a
company (platoon) in a tank battalion (company), and would be attached as needed to the supported tank platoon.

Russia seriously considered the adoption of the BMPT, and at one point even announced that the first BMPT company would be created
in 2010, but the program was later cancelled by the Russian Ground Forces, although the BMPT has been sold on the export market. Initial
statements about abandoning the BMPT mentioned the problems with building a new weapon system upon the venerable, but reliable, T-72
chassis, while Russia was in the design process for the next generation chassis, the Armata. If the Armata chassis is accepted into the Russian
arsenal, the BMPT may yet find a home in the Russian Ground Forces and could become one of Russia’s most interesting new technologies to
watch, as Russian tactics and doctrine adjust to its fielding. End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles)

Russia’s Strategic Mobility

Supporting ‘Hard Power’ to 2020?
APRIL 2013
By Roger N. McDermott
http://www.foi.se/ReportFiles/foir_3587.pdf
Roger N. McDermott’s Russia’s Strategic Mobility: Supporting
‘Hard Power’ to 2020? examines the rapidly changing Russian
military’s strategic capabilities for logistics, combat service sup-
port, and force projection. McDermott’s work for The Russia
Studies Programme of the Swedish Defence Research Agency
(FOI) sheds light on the unglamorous, but vitally important lo-
gistic backbone upon which the Russian military relies. Roger N.
McDermott is a Senior International Fellow for the Foreign Mili-
tary Studies Office.

OE Watch May 2015 4

RUSSIA Top

Cyber Troops in the Russian Ministry of Defense 6 April 2015

Source: Aleksandr Stepanov, “Defense Ministry Announces Recruitment for Science Troops: Students Will Be Put to Cyber Arms,”
Moskovsky Komsomolets Online, 6 April 2015, http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/04/05/studentov-postavyat-pod-kiberruzhe.html, accessed 15
April 2015.

Defense Ministry Announces Recruitment for Science Troops:

OE Watch Commentary: According
Students Will Be Put to Cyber Arms
to the accompanying article, the Russian
Ministry of Defense (MoD) has recently Possibly the most surprising Ministry of Defense subunit is scheduled to acquire a new
activated its first cyber unit in Tambov, science troop this very year. Smart young soldiers will be taught how to wage... computer
Russia. Although this development wars! There is only one subunit in Russia doing this -- the Combined-Arms Center for the
can simply be traced to the increasing Training and Use in Combat of Electronic Warfare Troops, which is located in Tambov. It
importance of information technologies
trains experts who can both erect barriers against Internet attacks and also impede the likely
in modern warfare, it can also be seen
adversary’s troop command and control and utilization of weapons…
as another way the Russian MoD is now
looking at threats other than traditional It is not out of the question that future soldiers in scientific troops will be the first building
military ones. blocks of the Russian cyber troops whose creation was announced back in 2013. The
new structure is supposed to be based on programmers, mathematicians, cryptographers,
In the past, these sorts of activities would
fall solely under the Russian intelligence electronic warfare officers, and communications experts. In addition to repulsing attacks
services; now the MoD is becoming an from the Internet, these troops are supposed to prevent cyber attacks on classified military
active participant in such operations, as the networks -- the missile defense system’s network, for example. It is well known that the
accompanying article explains. Since 2013 Pentagon is allocating enormous resources for the development of spyware that can penetrate
Russia has fielded “science companies,” totally classified networks, which poses a threat to the Russian Federation’s national
which are manned by academically gifted security…
conscripts. The purpose of these science
companies is to make better use of human “We already have candidates -- primarily future graduates from the Tambov Polytechnic
capital and introduce needed talent into University whose since their second year have been working on areas of scientific
the ranks. They may be possible gates activity that have been coordinated with us -- and seven other Russian higher educational
for ascension into the cyber troops in the establishments have also confirmed their participation in this program,” Gubskov said. “We
future. are interested in seeing as many proficient experts as possible joining the science troop; they
One interesting aspect of Russia’s cyber are primarily guys from technical colleges who feel at home with physics and mathematics.”
troops is their doctrinal place in the Officers proudly show people around the Combined-Arms Training Center, where the
Russian military. As opposed to being part personnel for waging smart wars are being forged. There are several electronic warfare
of the intelligence or signal corps, as in
vehicles standing by the entrance to the center. It is on board them that the future experts
many other countries, Russian cyber falls
will learn how to counter attacks by a hypothetical enemy -- for example, to blind an aircraft
under the electronic warfare proponent.
End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles) that is ready to home in on a target and attack a facility.
“The crew’s task is to disable the aircraft’s radar and ensure that the pilot cannot see the
target on his instruments,” one of the officers explained. “When we disable the radar the
pilot can only observe the target visually and, given the speed at which the aircraft is flying, he can no longer attack the target and flies past.
The center’s students practice the same tasks, only in a training class and in simulators. They ‘track’ a flight of fighter aircraft on computer
screens and attempt to ‘blind’ them when ordered to do so by their instructor.”
Anatoliy Balyukov, one of the center’s teachers, feels that Internet wars have been taking place in the world for a long time already. And
cyber troops and cyber commands are developing actively in many countries, including the United States, China, and Britain.
“In foreign countries a cyber command is a serious system that is targeted primarily at disabling such strategic facilities as gas distribution
networks, disconnecting the electricity supply, and, of course, attacking classified military networks,” the teacher said. “So the main objective
of the guys who will be trained here is to study these methods and erect a reliable barrier against them.”
There are many rumors in Russia about the actions of electronic warfare subunits. For example, people say that thanks to our cyber maestros
an ultra-modern American aircraft carrier can be suddenly “blinded” or the latest drone may lose control and go off course for no visible

(continued)
OE Watch May 2015 5
RUSSIA Top

Continued: Cyber Troops in the Russian Ministry of Defense

reason, and even a satellite can be suddenly reprogrammed. We have honestly attempted to dispel these rumors, but unfortunately...
“Take my word for it, we do our job, and do it pretty well,” Colonel Yuriy Gubskov, chief of the Combined-Arms Center for the Training and
Use in Combat of Electronic Warfare Troops, told Moskovskiy Komsomolets. “We cannot talk about any specific details of operations in order
to avoid giving our likely adversary food for thought.”
In the words of the center’s staffers, electronic warfare means, among other things, disrupting and confusing troop and weaponry command
and control systems, and the fact that Russian experts know about the likely adversary’s troop and weaponry command and control systems,
despite all of their tricks, enables them to cope with their tasks. At the same time, “new blood” is needed in order to continue this intellectual
duel. And great hopes here are being pinned on the science troop that is scheduled to appear in Tambov this year.

Roger n. mcdermott
Senior International Fellow,
Foreign Military Studies Office

United Kingdom

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/Collaboration/internation-
al/McDermott/Brotherhood_McDermott_2015.pdf

OE Watch May 2015 6

RUSSIA Top

Details of Russia’s Spring 2015 Conscription Campaign 4 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Russia’s Source: Aleksey Durnovo, “Features of Organizing the Spring 2015 Draft of Citizens
spring draft campaign is reportedly for Military Service,” Ekho Moskvy Online, 4 April 2015, http://echo.msk.ru/programs/
underway, and is expected to induct voensovet/1522994-echo/, accessed 20 April 2015.
150,145 conscripts into the Ministry
of Defense and military formations in Features of Organizing the Spring 2015 Draft of Citizens for Military
Russia’s militarized intelligence and Service
security services. The accompanying
article is an interview with Major- [Durnovo] …Today we are talking about features of organizing the spring draft of
General Yevgeniy Vladimirovich citizens for military service, this spring draft launched literally a few days ago.
Burdinskiy, chief of Russia’s draft system. Major-General Yevgeniy Burdinskiy, first deputy chief of Armed Forces General
Of particular interest is Burdinskiy’s Staff Main Organization-Mobilization Directorate. Yevgeniy Vladimirovich, good
explanation of Russia’s thoughts on afternoon.
continuing the draft. Since the Yeltsin
[Durnovo] …Yevgeniy Vladimirovich, it probably is too early to sum up first results of
years, there has been discussion of
abolishing the draft and utilizing only the draft, so let’s talk about figures. What are the plans? How many persons are you
professional (contract) service members. calling up in this draft?
In the last few years this has changed: no [Burdinskiy] In the spring of this year 150,145 persons will be called up and sent to perform
longer is abolishment of the draft seen
military service. This criterion was established by presidential edict and is formed
as necessary or beneficial, even if there
based on the requirement of the state’s military organization for servicemen performing
were sufficient financial resources for
the effort. He states that a ratio of two conscripted service.
conscripts per one contract soldier is [Durnovo] By the way, will graduates be given an opportunity to choose two years of
the desired future force structure. (In the contract service or one year of conscripted service? Are there conditions for such a
Russian system, officers and “contract choice at all?
NCOs” are legally considered types of
contracted service members.) [Burdinskiy] Of course, the young person has the right to choose, and he expresses his wish
and the draft board considers it. Young people took advantage of that opportunity last
Burdinskiy also discusses solutions spring and in the fall draft campaign, and more than 1,000 persons with a higher education
to the problem of reduced conscription
went to perform contract military service.
durations (from 24 to 12 months). The
brief conscription duration has been [Durnovo] By the way, until very recently the term of conscripted service specifically
the subject of many complaints from was two years, then they made it one, and very many were saying that this changed the
Russian commanders, as a year is seen situation in the Armed Forces very greatly in general. Is this indeed so?
to be far too little time to train and
[Burdinskiy] …Indeed, the changes occurred, as I repeatedly have said on this broadcast, in
employ a soldier. To solve the problems
of integrating contract NCOs (a relatively an effort to train young people for military service. Young people have begun to prepare
new concept in the Russian military) for service more objectively. Each year we send more graduates of Military Higher
and successfully utilizing short-term Educational Institutions (VUZs) and secondary vocational schools that gives graduates
conscripts, Russia is experimenting with skills equivalent to military occupational specialties. There is also Voluntary Society for
different ways to place these soldiers in Promotion of the Army, Air Force, and Navy (DOSAAF) that provides military related
the ranks. The current trend is placing skills. We send conscripts for service in the troops with consideration of their specialty
contract NCOs in “trigger puller”
[skills acquired before entry into military service]…And the basic training program
positions, while having the conscripts
has also has been changed so young people can become more adapted in a short time
serve in combat service and combat
service support roles. specifically in the period of establishment in performing military service, and can gain
more skills in the period of service itself…
Russia is also trying to develop
[Durnovo] Three people at once are asking when the Armed Forces will give up the
some militarily useful civil institutions
similar to some Soviet-era institutions draft entirely? In general, are there such plans to give up the draft entirely?
that have atrophied since the collapse [Burdinskiy] There are no such plans to give up the draft entirely, nor is there a need for
of the Soviet Union. These institutions this… Then it will turn out that if we man only by contract, we deprive the citizen of the
right to perform military service…we remain of the opinion that we must man by a mixed
(continued) method: by draft and by contract. Defense Ministry plans have an annual increase in the

OE Watch May 2015 7

RUSSIA Top

Continued: Details of Russia’s Spring 2015 Conscription Campaign

include the Voluntary Society for Promotion percentage of contract personnel, and by the end of this year, counting officers, it is
of the Army, Air Force, and Navy (DOSAAF, planned that we will have a 2 to 1 ratio of contract servicemen to draftees.
a sponsor of after school activities such as
[Durnovo] Please tell me, has the practice of training students in a training
flying, parachuting, skiing, etc.), military
program not as officers, but as sergeants and privates of the reserve, proven
higher educational institutions (VUZs, military
high schools), and vocational-focused high itself?
schools. These institutions are intended to [Burdinskiy] It’s too early to sum up results as to whether or not it has proven itself.
instill militarily useful skills and occupations I want to talk about the demand and about how this is perceived in society. They
to potential conscripts and contract soldiers
began training reserve privates and sergeants in military departments only last year,
before they begin service in the ranks.
and only in those VUZ’s where there is a military department. Very great popularity
End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles)
was generated among students, and we have a lot of requests to the Defense Ministry
to open a military department in VUZ’s where there is no military department. This
is the desire of the student community and of the rector. We are studying these
issues, i.e., the first thing is that it is popular among the youth and among instructors,
but we will evaluate effectiveness based on the first graduations from VUZ’s, because
young people who took the theoretical course -- and for now only the theoretical
course is being studied -- will begin practical classes in 2016; these are training
conferences. And when there are training conferences we will perform efficiency
ratings, we will hold an exam, we will see what kind of practical skills they received,
and we will evaluate their level. Then, in 2016, is when it will be possible to draw the
first conclusions.

Russian Conscription Demographics

By Charles K. Bartles, FMSO
In 2010, the Russian Federation conducted its second census
since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The census
included a wealth of data about Russia’s military
demographics. Using the census data, this
monograph makes a number of important
estimates regarding Russia’s future
demographics.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Russian%20Conscription%20Demographics/Russian-Conscription-Demographics.html

OE Watch May 2015 8

RUSSIA Top

Force Structure of Russian Military Units in Crimea 25 March 2015

“Before 2020 Black Sea Fleet will receive a total of around 30 combatant ships of various types, and support vessels.”
Source: Dmitriy Boltenkov, “Fortress Crimea: Combat-Effective Grouping of Forces and Assets Created on the Peninsula in a Year,”
Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer Online, 25 March 2015, http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24412, accessed 15 April 2015.

Fortress Crimea
OE Watch Commentary:
Before Russia’s annexation of On 19 December Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu announced that “a self-sufficient grouping
Crimea in March of 2014 there of troops has been established in the general-purpose forces in Crimea. Seven formations
were approximately 200 military [Соединение- approximately units that are brigade sized and above] and eight military units
units (соединение) and subunits [Войсковая часть- units that are approximately regimental to independent battalion sized] for
(подразделение) of the Ukrainian various purposes have been created on the peninsula in addition to existing forces and assets.”
military (including the Ministry of
Russia’s military department has done an enormous amount of work in a year…
Defense and military units in other
ministries) on the Crimean Peninsula. Russia’s military-political leadership was faced with a very difficult task of activating a full-fledged
After the annexation the approximately Armed Forces grouping in the new Federation components, and some of its elements essentially had
18,800 Ukrainian servicemen were to be created from scratch…
given three choices:

1. Swear allegiance to Russia and join Renewed Black Sea Fleet

the Russian military, retaining all
Crimean Naval Base Headquarters was reactivated on 1 December 2014. Its zone of responsibility
rank and titles.
included the Black Sea from the border with Ukraine in the west to Kerchenskiy Proliv in the east…
2. Retire and remain in Crimea. The Black Sea Fleet will be augmented with two new Project 11356 frigates, Admiral Grigorovich

3. Continue service in the Ukrainian and Admiral Essen, in 2015. Another four patrol ships -- Admiral Makarov, Admiral Butakov,
military, but leave Crimea. Admiral Istomin, and Admiral Kornilov -- are being built. According to known information, all six
were supposed to become part of Black Sea Fleet before 2017. It is not excluded that Project 22350
70-80 percent of Ukrainian
frigates and Project 20380 corvettes also will appear in Black Sea Fleet…
servicemen chose the first option and
transitioned to the Russian Army, The Fleet received the first two Project 636 submarines, B-261 Novorossiysk and B-237 Rostov-
unsurprising considering the large na-Donu, in December 2014. In this connection the submarine division which previously was part
Russian population that has resulted of 68th Offshore Defense Force Ship Brigade was reorganized as 4th Brigade. It will be stationed
from generations of Russian service on territory of the submarine basing facility built at Novorossiysk. In addition to the new Project
members settling in the area since 636 submarines, the brigade also includes Project 877 Alrosa and formally two submarines, B-380
Tsarist times. In addition, about 900
and B-435. Before 2017 the brigade will be augmented with B-262 Staryy Oskol, B-265 Krasnodar,
Ukrainian servicemen from Crimea
B-268 Velikiy Novgorod, and B-271 Kolpino.
who were serving in the Ukrainian
military outside of Crimea decided In the period up to 2020, six Project 22160 Vasiliy Bykov patrol ships will become part of Black
to return home and join the Russian Sea Fleet…Up to 2020 the 41st Missile Boat Brigade will receive six Project 21631 MRK small
military. Only 2000-3000 Ukrainian missile boats armed with the Kalibr attack missile complex. The first two ships, Zelenyy Dol and
servicemen took the third option, and Serpukhov, will arrive already this year. The Fleet is being augmented with Project 21980 counter
left Crimea for Ukraine.
sabotage boats…Before 2020 Black Sea Fleet will receive a total of around 30 combatant ships of
As the accompanying article various types, and support vessels.
describes, Russia has increased the
The Ukrainian large landing ship Konstantin Olshansky, command ship Slavutych, anti submarine
size of its military forces in Crimea,
warfare corvettes Ternopil’ and Luts’k, ocean minesweepers Cherkasy and Chernihiv, and others are
now part of the Russian Southern
Operational Strategic Command in Sevastopol’ bays. They are flying Russian Navy flags, they have been included in Black Sea Fleet,
(OSK). These gains have come from and have skeleton crews aboard. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry leadership repeatedly declared a
incorporating previously Ukrainian- lack of interest in these ships. The question of whether or not they will be returned to the previous
flagged units, increasing the size of owner remains open. Some of these ships unquestionably are of interest to the Russian Navy…

(continued)
OE Watch May 2015 9
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Continued: Force Structure of Russian Military Units in Crimea

Air Force and Navy Aviation
existing Russian units, transferring
units from the Russian mainland, and There were around 20 military airfields on the territory of Crimea in Soviet times, but up to
creating completely new units. Although February 2014 Russian Naval Aviation used only Kacha and Gvardeyskoye airfields and Ukraine
Russia has increased it forces, the used Bel’bek, Dzhankoy, and Kirovs’ke..
total number of personnel is likely not
In July 2014 the 7057th Naval Aviation Air Base that was in Black Sea Fleet was reorganized
much different from the previous total
as two air regiments, to which previous names and honorific titles were returned, specifically
of Russian and Ukrainian Forces. Of
particular note, the peninsula’s Coastal the 318th Composite Air Regiment (Be-12 and An-26 aircraft and Ka-27 and Mi-8 helicopters)
Defense Troops (part of the Black Sea stationed at Kacha Airfield and 43rd Naval Ground Attack Regiment (Su-24 and Su-24MR
Fleet) are about the equivalent of a aircraft). The 43rd Separate Naval Ground Attack Regiment was rebased from Gvardeyskoye to
Russian Ground Forces’ combined Saki. It consists of two squadrons -- Su-24’s and Su-24MR’s...
arms army.
… the Naval Aviation command decided to restore Khersones (Sevastopol’), Donuzlav, and Saki
The Black Sea Fleet recently airfields. Runways are being renewed there and control towers are being outfitted with state-
appointed Lieutenant-General Yuriy of-the-art equipment. Donuzlav Airfield, which is on the shore of the lake by the same name,
Petrov as Deputy Fleet Commander, is a seaplane base from which the Be-200 aircraft which will become part of Black Sea Fleet
likely a nod to how important these Naval Aviation in 2015 can be employed…An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) detachment was
coastal defense assets are perceived,
established in Black Sea Fleet Naval Aviation in December 2014. Orlan-10 UAVs entered its
and there have even been reports of
inventory in particular. This year the detachment will be reorganized as a UAV regiment.
possibly establishing a Coastal Defense
Troops Command for the peninsula. The Southern MD 27th Composite Air Division, 4th Air Force and Air Defense Command, was
The accompanying graphic depicts deployed at Bel’bek, Gvardeyskoye, and Dzhankoy airfields during the preceding half-year. It
the major Russian Ministry of Defense has three regiments: 37th Composite, 38th Fighter, and 39th Helicopter…
units that were mentioned in the article
(military forces of other government Deployment of air defense units began on the territory of Crimea in March 2014 and was
entities are not shown). End OE Watch completed in December. Air defense units were brought together in 4th Air Force and Air
Commentary (Bartles) Defense Command’s 31st Air Defense Division. It included two SAM regiments: the 12th is
located in Sevastopol and the 18th in the center of Crimea. Subunits of 3rd Radiotechnical
Regiment are stationed throughout the peninsula…
Coastal Defense Troops
A year ago Black Sea Fleet had only the one 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Crimea. At the same time, the Ukrainians had the 36th Coastal
Defense Brigade, 406th Artillery Group, and two naval infantry battalions; 70-80 percent of the personnel of these units went over to the RF
Armed Forces. Initially the 128th Coastal Defense Brigade was established based on the Ukrainian36th Brigade with the previous basing
location in Pereval’nyy. Later this brigade was given the number 126 to commemorate the Gorlovo 126th Coastal Defense Division, which
existed as part of the USSR Armed Forces and Black Sea Fleet from 1989 through 1996. The 126th Brigade has seven [maneuver] battalions
and [artillery] battalions and five companies, and on the order of 2,000 persons serve in it, approximately 90-95 percent under contract. The
brigade is the main force of the RF Coastal Defense Troops…
The 501st Separate Naval Infantry Battalion in Feodosiya was activated from the Ukrainian 1st and 501st naval infantry battalions…
The Ukrainian 406th Coastal Artillery Group became the 8th Artillery Regiment…the previously existing naval engineer company was
reorganized as the 68th Naval Engineer Regiment at Yevpatoriya….The 4th Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Regiment was
activated at Inkerman…the 127th Intelligence Brigade was activated in Sevastopol’ in December 2014…At present there are several battalion
task forces of the Russian Ground Troops and VDV [Airborne Troops] on the Perekop and Chonhar isthmuses separating Crimea from the
mainland.
Much work lies ahead both for building a full-fledged basing infrastructure of troop units as well as for increasing combat readiness of the
newly activated and integrated units and reoutfitting them with new and advanced equipment.

OE Watch May 2015 10

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Continued: Force Structure of Russian Military Units in Crimea

Charles Bartles (FMSO) Source: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/russiaGraphics/Crimea2015_15APR15-01.png

OE Watch May 2015 11

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Commentary on Iran Nuclear Talks 25 March 2015

from Kremlin-Controlled Site

OE Watch Commentary: As diplomats Source: “Али Хаменеи о сотрудничестве с США: «Не дождетесь!»” (Ali Khomeini on
from Iran and the P5+1 countries— the Cooperation with US “Don’t Hold Your Breath”) Iran.ru, 25 March 2015. http://www.iran.ru/
United States, Russia, Britain, China, news/analytics/96726/Ali_Hamenei_o_sotrudnichestve_s_SShA_Ne_dozhdetes
France, and Germany—were rushing
to conclude a nuclear agreement before …The voice of the 75th Rahbar, as usual, was not loud. But all of Iran heard his words. “The
the self-imposed deadline at the end of
ongoing negotiations with the United States apply only to the nuclear program. And nothing
March, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah
more,”said Ali Khamenei.
Ali Khomeini addressed a large gathering
of people in Iran’s holy city of Mashhad. In the case of successful completion of negotiations, can a rapprochement occur between the
He discussed Western sanctions against positions of the US and Iran on regional issues? Moreover - will cooperation between Tehran
Iran’s nuclear program. On 25 March and Washington over the most acute problems of the Middle East, primarily the fight against
2015 Kremlin-controlled news site Iran.
Islamic state be possible? “No way. The goals and objectives of the United States in the region
ru published a commentary on his
are completely the opposite of the objectives of Iran and are deeply hostile to it,” said Rahbar,
remarks, specifically on the possibility
of cooperation with the United States answering the unspoken question that troubled all the participants.
on issues separate from Iran’s nuclear The spiritual leader not only answered the unspoken question of the audience. Communicating
program. The accompanying excerpts are with the people who enthusiastically welcomed his words, he at the same time gave an answer
from this commentary, where the author to Barack Obama, with its allusion to the fact that an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program
had also bolded and italicized some text
could lead to cooperation in the fight against the Islamic state….
for emphasis.
If we discard the verbal shells, the understanding of “cooperation” of the American political
According to this commentary, which elites about which Barack Obama hinted to the Iranians, looks very peculiar: Tehran must
quotes Khomeini’s remarks, Iran has no
give up not only the expansion of its influence in the region, but also give up even those
interest in cooperating on nonnuclear
positions that it has already won. Even the decorative thaw of relations between Iran and
issues with the West regarding, for
example, the fight against the Islamic the United States, in which there were far more words than deeds, for the most part, is a
State in the Middle East. The cleric triumph of Western duplicity and the mentioned “bullying” in Rahbar’s speech—not so much
claimed that the goals and objectives of over the Iranian negotiators, but over common sense— has caused panic and hatred among
the United States in the region directly Washington’s main regional allies: Riyadh and Tel Aviv….
oppose those of Iran and are deeply
And he [Obama] and John Kerry have to make every effort in order not to completely ruin
hostile to it.
relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. And the issue is not only with them, but the point is, that
Commenting on US policy towards for each of these allies there is a powerful lobby in America, multibillion-dollar contracts and
Iran, the Russian author feels that the group interests of local businesses and multinational corporations. In the US policy toward Iran
United States is demanding a lot from
and the Middle East, Obama and Kerry are not the only, nor the most important players….But
Iran while offering nothing in return.
in reality, what can the White House offer Iran? Upon closer examination— nothing….
He writes that Tehran must give up not
only the expansion of its influence in the ... So what’s the bottom line? Obama’s speech on regional cooperation, the possibility of
region, but also those positions that it establishing a close and friendly relations with Tehran in fact hide a proposal to Iran to
has already won, and calls the recent capitulate. And to add to that, give up its allies - Bashar Assad, Hezbollah and Shiites of Iraq.
“thaw” of relations between Iran and the The reward for this—is the possibility of partial lifting of sanctions, which the United States
West superficial at best and a “triumph
itself enacted. The guarantee of completion of this deal—is only Obama’s and Kerry’s promise.
of Western duplicity.” According to him,
And the Supreme Leader, and most Iranians know the value of their words. Therefore, Rahbar’s
the United States has nothing to offer
to Iran in return; he therefore endorses response was so brief and categorical in response to speculation about the “secret deals” with
Khomeini’s response to the United States the United States, “Don’t hold your breath!”
on cooperation on regional issues, “Don’t
hold your breath.” End OE Watch
Commentary (Borshchevskaya)

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Can Russia Rehabilitate Fighters 30 March 2015

Who Return to Caucasus from Syria and Iraq?

OE Watch Commentary: On 30 March 2015 news Source: Akhmed Yarlykapov, “Боевики ИГ действуют гораздо жестче, чем
site Kavpolit.com (Caucasus Politics) published an «Имарат Кавказ»” (ISIS Militants Act Much Tougher than Caucasus Emirate)
article by Akhmed Yarlykapov, senior associate at Kavpolit.com, 30 March 2015. http://kavpolit.com/articles/boeviki_ig_dejstvujut_
MGIMO University’s Center on the Caucasus and gorazdo_zhestche_chem_imarat-15406/
Regional Security. Yarlykapov begins by commenting
on the recent statement of Sergei Melikov, Russia’s
… Judging by Melikov’s statement, Russia is unlikely to try to rehabilitate those
envoy in the North Caucasus, to Russian reporters
who will return from Syria and Iraq. Because this is a different ideology, and
about militants from the North Caucasus fighting
for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Yarlykapov hence a completely different approach.
feels that, judging by Merlikov’s statement, Russia is Only very few terrorists from the underground in the Caucasus have gone
unlikely to be able to rehabilitate fighters who return through [Russia’s] rehabilitation program. And here, those who will come back
to the Caucasus from Syria and Iraq. He spends the
[from Syria or Iraq] were indoctrinated into a completely different ideology.
rest of his article more broadly discussing Russia’s
situation regarding fighters joining the ranks of ISIS. The issue is, the ideology of those who are fighting in the Caucasus, and those
who fight for the Islamic state, is absolutely different. ISIS militants are much
The topic of rehabilitation of militants is an
tougher than the Caucasus Emirate.
interesting one, but is rarely discussed in the press.
Little reliable data are available on this topic. ... Russia’s calm against the backdrop of European countries - is only superficial.
Yarlykapov’s commentary is useful in this regard. He In fact, there is no calm [in Russia], but there is awareness and understanding of
says that only very few militants from the Caucasus the problem. And the problem is very serious and, indeed, Russia has given many
underground have undergone rehabilitation in people to the ranks of the Islamic state.
Russia. More importantly, however, in his view, these
individuals subscribe to a different ideology—ISIS …At the same time, Russia should not forget that remnants of the underground
fighters in his view are much tougher (he does not [from the Caucasus] remain on its territory. And quite a successful war is ongoing
elaborate further on what that entails) and presumably with them. It is very difficult to understand whether it [the underground] is laying
more difficult to re-educate. Russia, therefore, is low or if it is broken.
unprepared to rehabilitate those fighters who return to
the Caucasus from Syria and Iraq.

Furthermore, information on how many domestic

fighters remain active in the Caucasus is also
unavailable. Yarlykapov also points out that Russia’s
officials are very concerned about these issues,
despite outwards appearances of calm, particularly
in the context of widely voiced concerns in Europe
about their own returning fighters. End OE Watch
Commentary (Borshchevskaya)

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Underlying Tensions in Armenia-Russia Relations 31 March 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Russia remains

Source: “Россия и Армения стали меньше торговать” (Russia and Armenia are
a prominent topic in the South Caucasus’
Trading Less) Haqqin.az, 31 March 2015. http://haqqin.az/news/42389
Russian-language press. In Armenia’s Russian-
language press in particular, there is an
emphasis on Russia’s positive influence in Foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Russia for January-February 2015
Armenia. Such reports have increased since amounted to 138.7 million dollars, a decrease of 35.4% compared to the same period
Armenia agreed in 2014 to join the Russia-led in 2014 ... the share of foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Russia in the total
Customs Union, and later formally entered the foreign trade turnover for the period is 23.4%, or approximately 592.4 million dollars, a
organization in January 2015. decrease of 27.7% compared to the same period in 2014.
Nonetheless, voices of dissent in the region,
or simply news that highlight negative trends in
the Armenia-Russia relationship, remain in the Source: “Ваче Габриелян: По ключевым вопросам между Россией и Арменией
есть полное взаимопонимание” (Vache Gabrielyan: On Key Issues, There is Complete
press as well. The first excerpt, from Haqqin.
Understanding Between Russia and Armenia) Newsarmenia.ru, 31 March 2015. http://
az, is one such example. It points out that
www.newsarmenia.ru/politics/20150331/43188309.html
trade between Russia and Armenia decreased
in January-February 2015 as compared to
the same period in the previous year, which is …“The relationship we have [with Russia] isvery good, dynamic and strategically
precisely the period when Armenia formally important for us. And for Russia, in my opinion, they are also important, as the presence
joined the Customs Union. in the region is of great importance for Moscow,” said [deputy prime minister, minister
The remaining two excerpts are examples of international economic integration and reform of Armenia Vache] Gabrielyan.
of the typical news that focuses on the positive According to him, of course, there are some problems, but they are common to all “live”
Russia-Armenia relationship in Armenia’s relationships.
Russian-language press. The first is a statement
from Armenian Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of International Economic Integration Source: “Российская благотворительность и Армения в 1915-1923 гг.” (Russian
and Reform Vache Gabrielyan, who stresses Charity and Armenia in 1915-1923) Argumenti.ru, 31 March 2015. http://argumenti.ru/
the “complete understanding on key issues” culture/2015/03/394221
between Russia and Armenia. The second is
an article about an exhibition due to open at
According to the news agency “ProArtInfo” tomorrow, April 1, in the National Library
Russia’s National Library in St. Petersburg,
of Russia (St. Petersburg) an exhibition will open, entitled, “Russian charity and Armenia
which will reveal, for the first time, unique
documents in Russian and Armenian that in 1915-1923,” which will take place in the cycle of events dedicated to 100th anniversary
highlight the positive role Russia played for of Armenian Genocide in 1915.
Armenians between 1916-1923, the years Unique documents devoted to the activities of charitable committees in Russia and
critical to Armenia’s history. publications from NLR funds in Armenian and Russian languages will be presented for
It would be a bit harder to find in the the first time at an exhibition in the NLR.
Russian-language press that, for example, These are magazines published between 1916 - 1918, to raise funds and awareness to the
Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan was not
events in Turkish Armenia “Armenian Bulletin” and “Armenians and the War.” Among
invited to the 20 March 2015 meeting in Astana
the exhibits - an appeal to the citizens of Petrograd for donations for Armenian refugees,
between the remaining Customs Union leaders.
Sargsyan had also said earlier in the month statutes of charities, census of refugees, reports of organizations on collected funds….
that he is worried about Russia’s weapons sales
to Azerbaijan, and expressed concern about
whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will come to Yerevan on 24 April, which commemorates the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
Genocide. To be sure, this has not gone unnoticed by Armenian analysts, but public statements about the positive side of the Russian-
Armenian relationship are far more common. The underlying tension, however, will be important to watch in the coming months.
End OE Watch Commentary (Borshchevskaya)

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The Northern Navy’s Two Step Strategy 5 April 2015

for Underwater Anti-Sabotage Operations

OE Watch Commentary: The Russian Source: Ivan Petrov, “The Diver Doesn’t Swim Under the Ice: On the Northern Navy’s
Federation’s drone development programs Specially Designed Drone for Handling Saboteurs” Rossiyskaya Gazeta Online, 5 April
have continued to expand and grow into 2015. http://rg.ru/2015/04/05/bespilotnik-site.html, accessed 17 April 2015.
multipurpose roles. As the excerpt from
Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Russia’s official
The Diver Doesn’t Swim Under the Ice:
government newspaper, points out, the
On the Northern Navy’s Specially Designed Drone for Handling Saboteurs
Russian intelligence drone “Tachyon” was
specifically designed for reconnaissance use Training unique to its kind began at the end of this week in the Northern Fleet.
of the Northern Fleet, with both optical and IR Specialized Naval personnel conducted practical tests of the “Tachyon” aerial drone
cameras designed for spotting targets on land, in order to deal with underwater sabotage operations. The drone is designed for aerial
sea and under the surface of the water, during reconnaissance and the detection of small and hard to detect objects both on land as well
both daytime nighttime operations, and in
in and under the water.
extreme weather conditions.
“The device was specifically designed for use in the Far North; it is equipped with a
The brief excerpt also describes the recent thermal imager and camera. It is small and lightweight and can be used in a wide range
development of the surface-to-subsurface
of altitudes and temperatures, as well as at high wind speeds,” – explained Northern
DP-64 grenade launcher for anti-sabotage
Fleet Captain Vadim Serga…
operations, intended as an antipersonnel
weapon for underwater divers, as well as for the According to him, anti-sabotage drone tests took place in the bays along the coast of
destruction of submersible delivery vehicles. the Kola Peninsula. First of all, appreciate the ability of “Tachyon” to detect divers and
Coordinated employment of these weapons delivery vehicles at various depths. In addition, the drones were looking for maneuvering
indicates that the Northern Navy can identify the base of subversive groups and camouflaged ambush, including at night. Unmanned
and disrupt underwater sabotage operations vehicles equipped with an infrared camera and video modules that can be used to detect
more quickly and efficiently, even in extreme even a well-camouflaged enemy, so are able to perform combat missions at any time.
climates. End OE Watch Commentary (Croft)
Recall in one of the last issues of “RG” [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] already covered the theme
of confrontation with underwater saboteurs. This issue regarded the beginning of serial
production of the double-barreled anti-sabotage grenade launcher DP-64 “Nepryadva.”
Earlier this launcher has come into service, but only in small batches – current priority
arms orders are for ship marine units, some parts of the FSO [Federal Protective Service]
and the Federal Border Guard Service. Soon, such grenade launchers will be equipped to
units of the regular Navy.
In this case, “Nepryadva” has no analogues in the world. Its uniqueness lies in its
ability to fire from on board a ship onto underwater targets. According to the developers,
grenades fired from DP-64, capable striking divers at a distance of 500 meters and all
kinds of light surface targets. With this in mind the crew is capable of organizing a
defensive perimeter all around a vessel. Grenade launchers can be mounted on a turret
and manage remotely. Due to its design grenade is virtually a silent weapon….

OE Watch May 2015 15

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Surprise Readiness Tests 25 March 2015

“From my own experience of military service I will say that a no-notice inspection is the only real
opportunity in peacetime to make an objective assessment of an army’s combat readiness.”

OE Watch Commentary: Since Sergey Source: Anton Mardasov, “Aрмия показательной готовности: Внезапные проверки
Shoygu became Russia’s minister of defense Вооруженных сил РФ: политический пиар или эффективное средство боевой
in November 2012, the military has staged подготовки?,” [Army of Demonstration Readiness: No-Notice Inspections of RF Armed
more frequent large-scale, no-notice training Forces: Political PR or Effective Combat Training Device?] Svobodnaya Pressa, 25
March 2015. http://www.svpressa.ru/war21/article/116586/
exercises designed to test the readiness of
the country’s Armed Forces. Although these
exercises may be a surprise to those in uniform, No-Notice Inspections of RF Armed Forces
they are usually very well publicized by the
…President of Russia Vladimir Putin expects work on no-notice readiness inspections
Russian media, impressing upon viewers the
military’s growing strength and preparedness of the Russian Federation’s Armed Forces to be continued this year. He announced this
to defend against an enemy attack. They 24 March at a meeting with Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Chief of General Staff
also demonstrate the resolve of the Kremlin’s Valeriy Gerasimov, at which the results of large-scale exercises that concluded 21 March
leadership to modernize the country’s Armed were summarized. The defense minister reported to the supreme commander in chief
Forces. on the course of the maneuvers and their results, noting that this was the first no-notice
The brief accompanying excerpt examines the inspection to be staged this year….
results of a major no-notice exercise conducted …Let me recall that, on orders from President Vladimir Putin, Russian Defense
in mid-March 2015 involving more than 80,000 Minister Sergey Shoygu announced 16 March the start of a no-notice inspection of the
men, 12,000 pieces of military equipment, 80
Northern Fleet and a part of the ZVO (Western Military District) troops. The aim was to
surface ships and submarines, and over 220
inspect the Northern Fleet’s combat readiness and to evaluate capabilities for augmenting
aircraft and helicopters. Elements from all of
the major joint commands were alerted, testing the troop grouping in the Arctic from the central regions of Russia and accomplishing
everything from strategic nuclear forces to missions in challenging climatic conditions.
naval infantry, from reinforcing the defense of The maneuvers were supplemented 17 March by strategic command staff exercises that
Crimea to conducting maneuvers in the Arctic affected all five operational-strategic commands, as well as formations under central
sector.
command. An extensive troop redeployment was staged in the Western, Northern, and
Despite the impressive breadth and scope Southern sectors. Specifically, strategic Tu-22M3 missile-armed aircraft flew to Crimea.
of this training, the article questions the Aircraft of fighter and bomber aviation were redeployed to Kaliningrad Oblast, the
effectiveness of these no-notice exercises and ground forces grouping in the Baltic was reinforced with Iskander operational-tactical
whether or not they actually reflect a unit’s systems, which were delivered by large amphibious warfare ships belonging to the Baltic
combat readiness. One of the experts quoted
Fleet. In addition to the maneuvers in the Arctic sector, the reinforcement of Crimea’s
(General Sobolyev) contends that the usefulness
defense -- with engineer troops erecting a raft and ferry crossing of the Kerchenskiy
of these exercises is often limited, since the units
are not engaging with a theoretical foe, where Proliv -- and the strengthening of Kaliningradskaya Oblast’s defense were rehearsed….
umpires can “rigorously monitor the process In the words of Andrey Kartapolov, chief of the Main Directorate for Operations of the
of the maneuvers.” He points out that without General Staff of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, all in all more than 80,000 men,
some nominal form of resistance, where an 12,000 pieces of military equipment, 80 surface ships and submarines, and over 220
aggressor or umpire can play the opposing side,
aircraft and helicopters took part in the exercises.
these exercises often devolve into “political
PR.” The no-notice exercises have been held, the Defense Ministry leadership has reported
their results to the president. One would like to understand, however: How effective
Sobolyev also points out that directing
are these no-notice inspections that have recently become a regular feature in the field?
these exercises from Russia’s new command
and control center in Moscow could prove Are they really no-notice events, or is a division, say, that is to be put on alert in line
hazardous “because in the event of a with General Staff plans forewarned about the upcoming redeployment some days
real armed conflict this National Defense beforehand? To what extent do no-notice exercises model combat operations, and are
Management Center would be promptly the units that have been mobilized for maneuvers sufficient to repulse aggression by a
destroyed.” He goes on to suggest that, despite potential adversary?
the façade of defense readiness, the Defense
Ministry has not fully exercised mobilization
(continued)
OE Watch May 2015 16
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Continued: Surprise Readiness Tests

Svobodnaya Pressa asked Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, former commander of the
plans because the military is hugely
58th Army, to comment on the large-scale exercises staged by the Russian Federation’s
undermanned. He points out that in the Ground
Armed Forces. …”So no-notice exercises are useful. But in order to inspect actual
Troops’ total inventory of “39 motorized
infantry and tank brigades throughout Russia, combat readiness it is necessary for the exercise director’s staff and the umpires to be
only one battalion in a brigade is more or less located beforehand directly in the zone of the maneuvers. And they must rigorously
in a state of combat readiness.” He contends monitor the process of the maneuvers.
that this shortage of trained personnel could
“For example: During the no-notice inspection of troops that concluded a couple of days
have catastrophic consequences in the event of
ago a battalion of naval infantry was put on alert and embarked on amphibious warfare
major hostilities.
ships. But what then? Then we are shown the following piece on television: The ship
Even with these critical observations, approaches right up to the shore unimpeded, following which the landing force debarks
however, the article concludes on a positive right onto the coast. But if this is a no-notice inspection the aim of which is to examine
note, pointing out that there will always be a
the troops’ combat readiness, then it has to model the actual conditions of combat
“certain degree of compromise with realism”
operations!
when testing military readiness in the absence
of actual conflict. Besides their public relations …”By and large I am not opposed to no-notice inspections. It’s a good thing that with
value, unannounced military readiness tests Shoygu’s arrival they have begun to be conducted on a regular basis. But in order for this
allow Russian commanders and soldiers “to to be of real benefit the General Staff -- I repeat -- must put together umpire personnel
understand what to expect in the event a real whose officers would be capable of rigorously monitoring the troops’ operations. And
war breaks out.” End OE Watch Commentary
not only monitoring but also competently instructing the personnel and the staffs. But in
(Finch)
the absence of this, exercises become an exercise in political PR.
“What is also not clear is this -- during an armed forces combat readiness inspection,
just what was the Defense Ministry and General Staff leadership doing in a downtown Moscow building housing the country’s National
Defense Management Center, a building that is unprotected against attack from the air? Surely the defense minister and his deputies and
so forth should be occupying hardened command and control facilities and not sitting on Frunzenskaya Embankment in their office attire.
Because in the event of a real armed conflict this National Defense Management Center would be promptly destroyed….
…”To say nothing of mobilization readiness issues and the fact that our army is hugely undermanned. And bringing the troops to full combat
readiness scientifically speaking means bringing units and formations up to prescribed wartime strength levels, preparing armament and
equipment for combat employment, loading munitions, and assigning combat missions. Yet nothing of the sort was done in the course of the
past maneuvers.
“As a rule, in our Ground Troops only one battalion in a brigade is more or less in a state of combat readiness. And yet in all there are just 39
motorized infantry and tank brigades throughout Russia….
…“Whom to inspect, to what extent, and at what time? This is determined in advance. But only an extremely limited circle of individuals
must be in the know,” Viktor Murakhovskiy, military expert and member of the Expert Council under the chairman of the Russian Federation
Government’s Military-Industrial Commission, says. “If we exclude the president, this circle of individuals will number five or six people. So
for the troops being inspected this really is a surprise event.
“I understand Viktor Sobolev, although he, too, needs to realize that a certain degree of compromise with realism will nonetheless always
be present in no-notice inspections. If maneuvers are being conducted that involve full-scale field firing, then a large volume of preparatory
measures is required, including the installation of a target field, the provision of safety zones, and so on. This is by definition impossible if
we’re talking about a no-notice inspection.
…From my own experience of military service I will say that a no-notice inspection is the only real opportunity in peacetime to make an
objective assessment of an army’s combat readiness. Not for the purpose of presenting assessments. But to understand what to expect in the
event a real war breaks out.”

OE Watch May 2015 17

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Victory Day Parade-2015 14 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Memories of

Source: Viktor Baranetz, “Каким будет Парад Победы 2015,” [What will the 2015
the Great Patriotic War (WW II) are ever
Victory Parade be Like] Komsomolskaya Pravda, 14 April 2015. http://www.kp.ru/
present in Russia today, and May 2015 will daily/26288/3167218/
mark the 70th anniversary of the end of this
devastating conflict. Not surprisingly, the
Kremlin authorities plan to mark this gala … The military parade on Red Square will host more than 14 thousand troops (for
with a huge parade in Red Square and in a comparison, in 2010 there were 11,000)… Participating will be units from Ground
number of other commemorations and displays Forces, Air Force, Navy, Strategic Rocket Forces, Air Defense Forces, Airborne Forces,
throughout the country. As the first excerpt cadets from military academies, the presidential honor guard, Federal Security Forces
points out, the parade in Moscow’s Red Square
and units from other power ministries….
will be the largest ever, with more than 15,000
from Russia’s Armed Forces, nearly 200 army …The mechanized part of the parade will involve some 194 pieces of military
vehicles/weapon systems and 150 different equipment… including the Tiger, BTR-82A, T-90A, self-propelled howitzers
aircraft. “MSTA-S,” anti-aircraft missile systems “Buk-M2,” anti-aircraft missile and gun
Besides honoring the veterans from this war, complex “Carapace-C1,” anti-aircraft missile launchers missile system “S-400,” and
the first article suggests that the parade will intercontinental missile “Yars”….
display Russia’s growing military strength, For the first time on Red Square will be coastal missile systems “Ball” and “Bastion”,
featuring new ground weapon systems, self-propelled artillery “Coalition-SV”, the new version of the car increased the
including the Armata tank, Coalition-SV
vulnerability of “Typhoon” and other new items. It is expected that the parade on Red
self-propelled artillery system, and the
Square will also feature examples of such forward-looking armored tank “Armata,”
Kurganets-25, Boomerang and BMD-4M
infantry/armored fighting vehicles. Rounding infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers “Kurganets-25” and BMP
out this display of firepower will be the YARS “Boomerang”….
intercontinental (nuclear) missile system.

While the number of those attending the

(continued)
parade on Red Square will be limited to high-
level dignitaries and veterans of the Great
Patriotic War, the ceremony will be broadcast

Victory Day Parade, 2014. Source: http://eng.kremlin.ru/photo/2490

OE Watch May 2015 18

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Continued: Victory Day Parade-2015

from start to finish on nearly all of Russia’s

…Anecdote in the subject
major television media. Indeed, preparations
and media coverage for this parade have been A senior Russian military chief was irritated by the fact that his colleague at the
building for months, with frequent reports Pentagon accused the Russian Defense Ministry of organizing an “invasion” of Ukraine.
describing all of the detailed planning and The Russian general called his American counterpart on the phone and said to him:
training behind this armed spectacle.
- Regarding the situation in Ukraine, - I’m inviting you to the 2015 Victory Parade!!!
However, the foreign guest list for the
- Should I fly to Moscow? - Asked the American.
festivities has shrunk over the past few months.
As the second excerpt points out, while leaders - No! We are going to celebrate in Washington! – the Russian general replied.
from China, India, South Africa, Vietnam,
Mongolia, Cuba and North Korea plan to
attend, many Western leaders have declined Source: “9 мая в России пройдет 70 Парадов Победы,” [May 9 in Russia will hold the
to participate after Russia’s annexation of 70th Victory Day Parade] Komsomolskaya Pravda, 17 March 2015. http://www.kp.ru/
Crimea and its ongoing involvement in Eastern online/news/2003104/
Ukraine. While not directly referred to in these
excerpts, many Russians interpret the refusal The Kremlin is discussing the preparation for the celebration of the 70th anniversary
of Western leaders to attend as an affront. This
of the end of World War II…. It is expected that leaders from at least 26 countries will
sense of outrage is reflected in the anecdote at
attend on 9 May. Already invitations have been accepted from the leaders of China,
the end of the first excerpt. The 9 May Victory
Day parade on Red Square may now symbolize India, South Africa, Vietnam, Mongolia, Cuba and North Korea….
more than the Soviet triumph in WW II.
End OE Watch Commentary (Finch)

Sergey Shoygu:
Russia’s Emergency Defense Minister
A Bio-Sketch
By Ray Finch, FMSO
This paper briefly examines the background of Russia’s Minister
of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, the speculation behind his sudden
appointment in November 2012, the challenges he faces,
his efforts thus far within the Defense Ministry, and
possible future implications -both military and political
– surrounding his selection as Russia’s chief military
representative. This paper posits that should the stars
align correctly, as a close friend of President Vladimir
Putin, Shoygu could become the next leader of Russia.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Finch-Shoygu.pdf

OE Watch May 2015 19

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Extreme Sport: Arctic Airborne Exercises 1 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: The 98th Source: RIA Novosti, http://ria.ru/, 1 April 2015; Interfax, http://www.interfax.com/, 4 April
Guards Airborne Division continues 2015; and Ministry of Defense of the Russian, http://www.mil.ru, 1 April 2015.
its Arctic insertion training. In March
2014 paratroopers from this unit took “Pskov Airborne Troops Preparing for Drops in the Arctic”
part in one of Russia’s biggest airdrop
exercises in the Arctic, when 350 “Training sessions are being conducted in connection with possible drops by VDV formations
soldiers were dropped over the island that were scheduled for April, and further activities in the Far North and the Arctic. During
of Kotelny in the New Siberian Islands. the training sessions the VDV will perform more than 500 jumps with Arbalet special-purpose
In April 2014 90 paratroopers from parachute systems and carry out about 50 hours of training at airborne complex sites,” the
this division jumped from an Ilyushin release said.
Il-76 onto an ice floe close to the North
In addition, they are to undergo special training for action on snowshoes and skis.
Pole, where the drifting research station
Barneo is located. In the late March The last unscheduled inspection of combat readiness took place in the Armed Forces of the
2015 short notice exercise in the Arctic, Russian Federation from 16 to 21 March with emphasis on practical activities in the Arctic.
paratroopers from the 98th Guards They involved forces of the Northern Fleet, the Western Military District, and VDV - about
Airborne Division conducted combat
80,000 troops, thousands of ground combat vehicles, dozens of surface ships, submarines,
training missions on Novaya Zemlya and
aircraft, and helicopters.
Franz Josef Land. Companies of the
division then redeployed to the Kol’skiy
Peninsula, where they conducted security Paratroops to land on ice floe as part of Russia-CSTO exercise
and defense of the Olenegorsk military
airfield, a major naval reconnaissance Russia’s Airborne Forces and the Collective Operational Reaction Forces of the Collective
facility south of Murmansk. This was in Security Treaty Organization plan an exercise this month to involve the parachuting of troops
clear response to Norway’s announced on an ice floe in the central part of the Arctic Ocean.
military exercise in the Norwegian
The parachuting, the first landing of paratroops on an ice floe, will be the starting point of
Finnmark. Ten IL-76 CANDID aircraft
an exercise to train a search and rescue expedition moving toward the North Pole, Russian
(Russia’s equivalent of the C-17)
supported the division during this Airborne Forces spokesman Lt. Co. Yevgeny Meshkov told Interfax.
exercise. Russian Air Force military transport and the expedition center of the Russian Geographical
Society will also be involved in the exercise, he said.
The 98th Guards Airborne Division
is becoming the go-to division for
rapid ground force reinforcement in
Over 400 Northern Fleet Marines Take Part in Parachute Jumps
the Russian Arctic. It is located south
of St. Petersburg, so it is not that far Over 400 servicemen of the airborne battalion and the separate airborne-reconnaissance
from the Murmansk Peninsula, as the company of the Northern Fleet naval infantry brigade have started carrying out parachute
CANDID flies. While most of the drops jumps.
use the standard D-10 parachute (with
The Northern Fleet naval infantrymen are carrying out jumps from military transport
a hemispherical deployed canopy),
aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters at a range of altitudes -- from 500 to 1,200 meters. The airborne
the Arbalet [crossbow] standard
steerable sports parachute is being used operations are carried out in groups numbering up to 30 men.
increasingly in Russian Arctic jumps. During the training, the servicemen rehearse the skills of carrying out airborne operations in
They jump the Arbalet from as high as full combat gear and with regular-issue weapons.
3000 meters, using a drogue chute for
initial stability. The airborne battalion The practical parachute jumps were preceded by serious training of the airborne assault force
and scouts of the Northern Fleet’s members at simulators on the ground. At the beginning of the winter training period, the
Arctic Naval Infantry Brigade are also servicemen studied the characteristics, arrangement, and packing procedure of the parachute.
conducting jump training during April. On a multi-purpose parachute simulator, the naval infantrymen rehearsed in practice elements
End OE Watch Commentary (Grau) of exiting from the airplane and touching down.
The airborne training for the Northern Fleet naval infantrymen was planned in such a way
that every airborne assault force member would carry out at least two parachute jumps in the
training period. The winter parachute jumping will carry on until the end of April.

OE Watch May 2015 20

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Ice Airstrip for Transport Jockeys 9 April 2015

“The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that a temporary seasonal airfield covered with ice will be built
on the Alexandra Zemlya Island of the Franz Josef Archipelago. It will provide takeoff and for Russian
Air Force transport aircraft.”

OE Watch Commentary: The October 2014 issue

Source: “Interfax, http://www.interfax.com/, 9 April 2015
of OE Watch discussed Russian interest in Soviet
experience with ice floe airfields during the early part
of the Cold War. Past is prologue in Russian military Russia to build first ice airstrip in Franz Josef Land - Ministry
thought, and the Russians are now revisiting the use of
ice airfields in the Arctic. Presumably the ice airfield An Air Force spokesperson stated, in a statement obtained by Interfax-AVN
will be a 1000-meter extension of the old Nagurskoe “The length of the runway is 2,500 meters, the airfield is designed to deliver
meteorological station’s 1,500 meter strip. A long personnel and cargo to the Arctic region”.
runway is essential for iced surfaces. In December
“Snow clearing operations are underway to ready the airfield for taking in
1996 an AN-72 COALER Antonov cargo STOL aircraft
aircraft,” the spokesperson said. One crew “has started practicing takeoffs
crashed while landing at Nagurskoe. During World
War II the Germans established the Schatzgrüber and landings at its permanent base under near-Arctic conditions, the Ministry
meteorological station on the island. It was abandoned spokesperson said.
after most of the members were stricken with trichinosis “Military transport aircraft crews will be landing under difficult geographic
after eating raw polar bear meat. conditions, considering the hills and rocky surface of the island. During landing,
Reopening and extending an airfield this far north is pilots will rely on marker beacons with mandatory runway visual control and
expensive and difficult. Why is the Ministry of Defense only in visual flight weather conditions,” the spokesperson said.
making the effort? It does not look like an ideal location
to station MIG-31 or SU-24 interceptors. It would,
however, be an ideal site for supplying the Northern Sea
Fleet, since it is roughly halfway between the Atlantic
and Pacific Oceans. End OE Watch Commentary (Grau)

OE Watch May 2015 21

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Russian Artic Air Defense Upgrades 4 April 2015

“We have now deployed Pantsir firing systems there. The plan is to deploy the MiG-31 on Arctic
airfields,” stated Major General Kirill Makarov, Deputy Commander of the Aerospace Defense Troops
on the “Genshtab” [General Staff] radio program broadcast by the Russian News Service.”

OE Watch Commentary: The Russian air defense Source: RIA Novosti, http://ria.ru/, 4 April 2015.
efforts in the Arctic continue to expand and improve.
The announcement of the testing of maintenance-
free, automated radar stations would certainly ease Arctic: Russia to deploy MiG-31 interceptor fighters,
the manning problems for Russian air defense forces automated radar stations
in remote Arctic sites. The deployment of functioning In further comments reported by RIA Novosti separately, Makarov said
automated sites would enhance northern air defense.
Russia plans to deploy a network of Arctic radar stations in the near future that
The February 2015 edition of OE Watch reported the can operate virtually unmanned.
fielding of the SA-22 Pantsir-SM GREYHOUND mobile “We will deploy maintenance-free radar in the Arctic, which is very
combination short-to-medium range surface-to-air missile
important in the Far North,” Makarov said. “According to him, the state tests
and anti-aircraft artillery weapon system in the Arctic.
of one of these stations will begin soon, which ‘can run for days virtually
The missile has a reported engagement range from 20
kilometers (12 miles) to 30 kilometers (19 miles). The unmanned’“.
30mm twin-barreled gun can reach out to four kilometers.
The system can reportedly function effectively below -50
degrees Centigrade [-58 degrees Fahrenheit].

The Russian Ministry of Defense had previously

announced plans to station a regiment of MIG-31
FOXHOUND interceptors in the Arctic. The MIG-31 has
been around since 1979 and has reportedly intercepted the
Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird. It has look-down, shoot-down
radar and apparently
the capability of
engaging cruise
missiles.
End OE Watch
Commentary (Grau)

Pantsir-S1 Weapon System with adar antenna. Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wiki-

pedia/commons/c/c2/Pantsir-S1_Weapon_System_with_radar_antenna.jpg

OE Watch May 2015 22

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Russian Air Defense in the Arctic 12 April 2015

“Among the division’s primary missions was to conduct combat operations to repel massive enemy missile
and air strikes and cover facilities of the infrastructure of Northern Fleet, - 1st Air Defense Division Deputy
Commander Colonel Sergey Vladimirovich Denisov”

OE Watch Commentary: Russia is

Source: ‘Arctic Air Defense Vector’, Krasnaya Zvezda Online in Russian, 11 Apr 15,
continuing its air defense build-up in the
http://redstar.ru/index.php/newspaper/item/23025-arkticheskij-vektor-pvo
Arctic. A recent interview with 1st Air Defense
Division Deputy Commander Colonel Sergey
Vladimirovich Denisov demonstrates the Arctic Air Defense Vector
focus on emplacing a long-term and robust air
[Red Star] What missions face the division this year?
defense footprint in the region. Infrastructure
being set up in Russian Arctic facilities includes [Denisov] “ The priority mission is to activate a SAM regiment at Rogachevo on Novaya
schools, churches, and gyms, signifying Zemlya and bring it on line so it goes on alert duty already by year’s end. We are to
permanent operations. receive new armament: Pantsir-S1 ground-based self-propelled air defense missile-
gun complex and radar equipment. In general, the division technical pool will be
As per its doctrine, Russia has always
stressed the importance of air defense in 50-percent updated this year, and all 100 percent before 2020.”
conventional conflict. Now we are seeing “I wish to note that our subunits on Zemlya Aleksandry and in Rogachevo went
its most advanced air defense systems and on alert duty on 1 December 2014. In the months that passed since then, we
even UAVs being integrated in the Arctic to have become convinced of how high foreign states’ interest in the Arctic is now:
protect its future activities in the Arctic Sea. reconnaissance aircraft are constantly flying in high latitudes.”
Specifically, Russia will deploy an S-400 air
For the full interview; http://redstar.ru/index.php/newspaper/item/23025-arkticheskij-
defense regiment, a UAV unit (Orlan-10), for
area coverage. Russia will also deploy the vektor-pvo
Pantsir-S1 air defense system for defense of an
airfield. Additionally, Russia’s defense minister
says that it will construct 13 airdromes and 10 radars in the Arctic in 2015. In the article, Colonel Denisov mentions the growing tensions over
foreign reconnaissance flights over the Arctic and the international race for access to the region.

Three SAM battalions participated in a “snap” exercise in December 2014. Successful SAM live fires were also conducted on 8 April.
Russia is also monitoring the Arctic airspace with radio-technical units on the Kola Peninsula. These troops are also reinforced with SAM air
defense systems. Kola’s facilities are meant to address not just future Arctic activities, but also current foreign surveillance of Russian naval
assets. Kola Air Defense Division Commander Colonel Sergey Moskvichev fully expects joint operations between the Northern Fleet and land
forces to increase in frequency and capabilities. End OE Watch Commentary (Harvey)

OE Watch May 2015 23

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Russian Robots 28 March 2015

“At present, the combat module of the Nerekhta system mounts the Kalashnikov PKTM machine gun or the
Kord machine gun, exactly the same as those installed in other armored vehicles. In the future, however,
the plan is to improve this armament substantially, specifically with the robotic systems in mind. The
machine gun needs to have additional systems and sensors in order to organize fire control, as we call it,
so as to analyze the weapon’s rate of fire, how much ammunition remains, that is to say how many rounds
it has fired, and various other data such as the temperature of the weapon, for the operator to be able to
obtain this data from the machine gun at his fire control station. In addition, the magazine needs to be
larger, the service life of the machine gun needs to be made longer, and it has to be possible to reload it
remote-controlled.”

OE Watch Commentary: Russia’s Advanced Source: Report from the “Russian Weapons” program, Rossiya 24 Television, 28 March
Research Foundation, an organization similar 2015.
to the US DARPA, continues to impress the
leadership with its ability to engineer new The module is controlled by an operator. The command post can be housed in a separate
weaponry. Recently a robotic combat vehicle motor vehicle…the computer controls the robot at up to 20km away. There are up to 18
was demonstrated on TV as part of the
different modules, not all of them combat ones. The Nerekhta robotic system can provide
“Russian Weapons” program. The vehicle
fire support for a motor-rifle subunit, feed it reconnaissance data, or supply it with
can shoot a grenade launcher or machine gun
before evading its pursuers. It is hoped that ammunition.
the complex will make life easier for infantry Right now, the platform mounts a transport module. In effect, it’s a truck that can
commanders, since it will expand their combat carry ammunition, weapons, medical supplies and so on, its load capacity up to 700
capabilities.
kg. If required, in addition, it can also evacuate a casualty from the battlefield. All
The robotic vehicle is planned for late 2015. the robot versions are based on a universal platform. It can mount a combat module, a
The concept includes plans to develop several reconnaissance one or a transport one. This makes it easier to maintain and operate the
Nerekhta modules that can work together all at system.
once, with the ability to find and destroy targets
Stealth is one of the main tasks, so its motor is silent, electric. In combat conditions,
at will. End OE Watch Commentary (Thomas)
however, it is not always possible to find where to recharge it from. For this prototype,
once it completes its combat mission, no socket will have to be searched for. The fact is
that it has its own diesel generator. That is to say, if required the vehicle will be able to
recharge its flat batteries itself.
The operational temperature range of this particular assembly is 50 degrees Celsius
below zero to 50 above. It can withstand impacts and vibration of up to 10 g, 10-g loads.
If you look closely, you will see that it is quite sturdy, so if it falls, there’s no way it will
break.

OE Watch May 2015 24

RUSSIA Top

Russian Command and Control Procedures under Adjustment 1 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Particular attention Source: Major General Vladimir Yatsenko, “24 Hours to Ponder. The Mechanism
is being paid to improving the standard of for Adopting a Decision for an Operation to Repulse Aggression Needs to Work like
military command and control activities in Clockwork,” Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer Online, 1 April 2015.
Russia. The nation’s military leaders recognize
that the forms and methods for conducting The operations directorate embarks on formulating a decision chart (experience
military operations are under adjustment, and
demonstrates that it is necessary to prepare three such charts simultaneously). After the
command and control issues have become
commander has been briefed and the proposals for the utilization of subordinate troops
more dependent on informatized operations.
According to reports, specific generals and have been approved, each chief comes to the combat command and control center and
officers have been placed on a preapproved list enters his troops’ tasks on the decision chart together with the chief of the operations
due to their operational expertise, and they are directorate.
brought to the command and control center to
Usually the concept for an operation is personally formulated and specified by the
offer their advice on potential future military
commander. Together with the chief of the operations directorate, the chief of staff
actions. The process of clarifying a situation
and determining a concept are “carried out specifies tasks for armies. The chiefs of categories of troops and services include tasks
virtually simultaneously.” for their subordinates in their sections. The chief of the operations directorate handles the
organization of command and control, coordinating them with the chief of staff.
These meetings can take place literally two
or three days before the initiation of hostilities. So a priority task must be to staff the combined strategic command with highly trained
Naturally one wonders if such a meeting took generals, officers, and operators from the various armed services (preferably following
place in regard to the decision to intervene the completion of special courses run by the General Staff Academy). In 2015 particular
in Crimea. End OE Watch Commentary importance would be attached to the holding of a demonstration exercise under the
(Thomas) leadership of the minister of defense or the chief of the General Staff to examine the
work of the combined strategic command when adopting a decision for an operation
to repulse aggression and subsequently devise a training aid for military districts and
Russian Federation Armed Forces academies on the basis of its results.

“Studies conducted during operational-strategic exercises in the 1980s-1990s confirm that the final
clarification of the plan for an operation or the formulation of a new approach need to be carried out within
a short period of time -- within two or three days before the start of hostilities, when the front command has
reliable information about the position and correlation of enemy troop groupings and the possible nature
of enemy actions. In this case working in parallel would be the natural method for planning the operation.
It requires a high degree of coordination of the actions of staffs, directorates, and front command and
control sections and services.”

OE Watch May 2015 25

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Heavy Shelling Near Mariupol 19 April 2015

“In the village of more than 500 shells exploded. Due to the shelling, the OSCE mission was forced to
leave town, the remaining situation is not secure”- Donetsk News Agency spokesman”

OE Watch Commentary: Mariupol Source: “Militants Azov Conduct Heavy-shelling on Shirokino during Night,” Donetsk News
has long been considered key terrain Agency, 19 April 15. http://dan-news.info/defence/boeviki-azova-nochyu-podvergli-shirokino-
in the Ukrainian conflict. Its position intensivnym-obstrelam-istochnik.html
is strategic, allowing access to the Sea
of Azov, and a port/rail head that could
“Azov Fighters Conducted Heavy Shelling of Shirokino During the Night”
supply both Crimea and mainland
Ukraine. Mariupol has been under threat “This trip will take place without journalists to avoid the recurrence of an accident that
as it borders the rebel-held Donetsk occurred in Shirokino April 14 with the operator of the Russian TV channel” Star “Andrei
oblast. Recently Aleksandr Zakharchenko, Lunevw (journalist was blown up by” stretching “- approx. DAN),” - said the source.
the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk
Shirokino village is located between the occupied Mariupol and the DNR-controlled New
People’s Republic, provided an update
Azov, is one of the most stressful areas of the front. In the day before, on April 18 militants of
to his troop disposition. He announced
that the formation of the republic’s army “Azov” also fired on Donetsk People’s Republic positions, and representatives of the OSCE also
is nearly complete. He claims to have came under attack.
as many as 50,000 troops in the vicinity For complete story: http://dan-news.info/defence/boeviki-azova-nochyu-podvergli-shirokino-
of Mariupol, prepared for combat. The
intensivnym-obstrelam-istochnik.html
Organization for Security and Peace-
Europe (OSCE) has made an effort
to observe the situation from nearby
Shirokino. The village is the location of
the Joint Control Center for observation
of activity and violations of the Minsk
II agreement. One of the Joint Center’s
goals is to establish a demilitarized
zone, which would cease hostilities from
Shirokino, north to the Donetsk Airport.

The OSCE and other volunteers have

allegedly come under fire repeatedly.
As the Donetsk News Agency reports,
on 19 April the OSCE mission was Shirokino
forced to leave due to heavy shelling, in
which 500 shells were launched from
Mariupol
Ukraine’s “Azov” Battalion. Other local
media report that the cease-fire ended
in Shirokino on 18 April, when militants
used mortars, small arms and RPGs. The
Ukrainian media claim that Ukrainian
forces were able to repel the attack after
five hours. End OE Watch Commentary
(Harvey) UKRAINE

OE Watch May 2015 26

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Establishing Command and Control 7 April 2015

over Volunteer Units in Ukraine

“Last weekend it became known that Dmytro Yarosh, the leader of Right Sector (Right Sector is banned
in the Russian Federation) and a Supreme Council deputy, has become an adviser to the chief of the
Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff.”

Ukranian President Petro Oleksiyovych

OE Watch Commentary: The overall Poroshenko. Source: Wikimedia Commons
situation in SE Ukraine remains perilous. The
overall Ukrainian economy borders on collapse,
while the economic situation in the pro-Russian
separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk is
even worse. While major combat operations
have largely ceased, sporadic fighting
continues, with each side blaming the other.
There has been little constructive movement
toward determining the final political status
of the rebel-held regions, as both sides are
wary that the ceasefire protocols of the Minsk
II agreement will hold. The ill-observed truce Source: Tatyana Ivzhenko, “Порошенко испугался махновщины: Украинская власть
could spark into a wider conflict at any moment. пытается избежать военного мятежа,” [Poroshenko Frightened of Anarchy: Ukrainian
Regime Trying to Avoid Military Revolt] Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online, 7 April 2015.
Countless factors have prevented the full http://www.ng.ru/cis/2015-04-07/1_poroshenko.html
implementation of the Minsk II agreement,
which was signed in February. One key
challenge has dealt with the question of Poroshenko Frightened of Anarchy
leverage and the degree to which political
…The Ukrainian regime is currently engaged in subordinating the volunteer
leaders truly exercise authority over military
detachments to the official Armed Forces chain of command.
forces in the field. While this challenge is
applicable to all sides, it has been particularly Last weekend it became known that Dmytro Yarosh, the leader of Right Sector (Right
daunting for those fighting under the Ukrainian Sector is banned in the Russian Federation) and a Supreme Council deputy, has become
flag. The relatively new government in Kiev has an adviser to the chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff. And the Right
continued to struggle to establish its mandate Sector battalion, which participated in the counterterrorist operation, is preparing to
over all the disparate forces fighting for an
become part of the Ukrainian Army.
independent Ukraine.
Since last fall the media have been reporting on negotiations between the regime and
The accompanying excerpt (from a Russian the Right Sector leadership about the need to legitimize this formation. But Yarosh
source) describes some of the challenges the
did not accept the proposal and repeatedly voiced criticism of the security structures’
Ukrainian government faces in instituting
leadership….
control over these volunteer units. To date,
these independent units have played an …Explaining why the volunteer detachments had resisted legitimization for a long
important role in defending Ukrainian territory time, Yarosh said that formal resubordination would in fact mean liquidation: “I have
against separatist advances. Not surprisingly, some battalion leaders who do not have a higher military education and some who have
these units tend to be overtly nationalistic and
no higher education at all. They would immediately lose their posts. But they are more
reluctant to obey leaders in Kiev, whom they
effective than those who are two ranks higher than them. Often discipline among our
often deem as corrupt or insufficiently patriotic.
guys is greater than in the army. It is a normal phenomenon to see a commander at the
Rather than trying to forcefully disband these front, on defensive or offensive lines. Find me generals who would go there and lead the
units, the article describes how the Ukrainian fighters in the trenches.”
government is now trying to assimilate these
independent battalions into the country’s armed A military expert also told Nezavisimaya Gazeta on condition of anonymity about
forces. One key element in this process is to other reasons why the volunteer battalions, which were created exactly one year ago,
offer high-level military positions to those who have been in no hurry to become part of the MVD [Ministry of Internal Affairs] or
command these autonomous units. As the article
points out, “Dmytro Yarosh, the leader of Right (continued)
OE Watch May 2015 27
EUROPE Top

Continued: Establishing Command and Control

over Volunteer Units in Ukraine

Sector (Right Sector is banned in the Russian Armed Forces structure. “The first is a numerical strength and personnel mix. In the
Federation) and a Supreme Council deputy, has battalions people come and go freely, and nobody asks them for background details.
become an adviser to the chief of the Ukrainian Many have convictions received during Yanukovych’s time in office -- for participating
Armed Forces General Staff.” Yarosh is a highly in the Maydan protests. …A second important reason is the leadership. The battalions
controversial figure, known for his strong
are a brotherhood in which commanders have been through fire with their fighters; they
nationalist and anti-Russian sentiments. Prior
are trusted. And the fighters are afraid that a transition to becoming part of the Armed
to this appointment Yarosh had also voiced
strong criticism against Ukraine’s security Forces will entail the replacement of current field commanders and the appointment of
leadership, claiming that it was both corrupt outsiders,” he explained.
and incompetent. By bringing him into the In the words of Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s interlocutor, right now the Ukrainian regime
command structure, Ukrainian authorities is still trying to find a legitimization format that would suit the battalions. But most
likely hope to mute such criticism and use his
such formations have already been subordinated to the MVD or the Defense Ministry.
authority to strengthen the military.
“Three battalions -- OUN, Right Sector, and Karpats’ka Sich -- were still without a
The excerpt points out the difficulties with home recently. But now they too will receive registration as part of the Ukrainian Armed
incorporating units like Right Sector into Forces,” he said.
the Ukrainian military. Because of their
checkered backgrounds some members of these A few days ago Right Sector Press Secretary Artem Skoropadskyy confirmed the
units would be ineligible to join the military. battalion’s readiness to be legitimized, but only on the following condition: “The
More importantly, many soldiers from these volunteer Ukrainian corps will remain an integrated structure and we will continue to be
independent units have pledged personal directly subordinate to Dmytro Yarosh. That is to say, everything will be as it is now: We
loyalty to a particular leader and are wary of are cooperating with both the Ministry of Defense and the Ukrainian Security Service
transferring this loyalty to the larger Ukrainian anyway. But to directly become part of the chain of command -- so that, for example,
military. This skepticism has yet to be removed,
some general is sent to Right Sector to give orders -- of course such a thing must not
and while these units may be registered as
happen.”…
belonging to the Ukrainian military, questions
remain regarding actual command and control. …Experts note that Poroshenko has not opted to disband the volunteer battalions but
As a quote from a Right Sector spokesperson has decided to settle the problem by peaceful means. “The fact that Yarosh has become
indicates, “to directly become part of the chain an adviser to the chief of the General Staff makes it possible to allow for the possibility
of command -- so that, for example, some of a reform in the leadership of the security structures. There will probably be surgical
general is sent to Right Sector to give orders --
personnel decisions,” political analyst and suggested.
of course such a thing must not happen.”

Effective command and control over the

employment of armed force remains a key
hallmark of a state’s viability. The young
Ukrainian government continues to struggle
to establish this control. As long as some
Ukrainians pledge allegiance to individual
leaders rather than the state, serious doubts
remain regarding the effectiveness of
assimilating independent units within the
Ukrainian military. Yet until the process of
fully incorporating independent units like Right
Sector into the Ukrainian military is completed,
negotiating a realistic peace settlement will
prove impossible. End OE Watch Commentary
(Finch)

OE Watch May 2015 28

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Troubles for the G36 – the Standard Rifle of the German 18 April 2015

Federal Armed Forces

“One could also say: The G36 endangers the life of German soldiers in combat”
OE Watch Commentary: On 17 April 2015
Source: “Probleme beim G36-Gewehr: „Für den Einsatz nur eingeschränkt tauglich”
a 372-page expert opinion on tests of the
Spiegel Online, 18 April 2015: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/g36-
G36 prepared by the Bundeswehr Research
sturmgewehr-gefaehrdet-leben-von-bundeswehr-soldaten-a-1029343.html
Institute for Materials, Fuels and Lubricants,
the Fraunhofer Ernst-Mach-Institute and the
Bundeswehr Technical Center for Weapons “The outlook is gloomy: ’In demanding encounters’ the “precise placement of fire on
and Ammunition became available to the the enemy’ is not possible, the G36 “for operations of limited suitability” and “in the
German Federal Ministry of Defense. The fullest sense not ready for use.”
conclusions reached by the expert report about
the Heckler & Koch G36, the standard weapon “In Bundeswehr-language this means that ‘in the sense of survivability and
of the German Federal Armed Forces, are sustainability…a substantial capability gap’ is found in the G36”
straightforward and devastating. According “Solders were and are inadequately equipped”
to the experts, the accuracy of the rifle is no
longer reliably guaranteed after two magazines “One could also say: The G36 endangers the life of German soldiers in combat”
have been fired. The accuracy of the G36
decreases to 53% when fired while the barrel is
“hot.” In other words, only every other bullet hit the target aimed at, and after the third magazine it was only every third bullet.

According to the standard of the test, the tested weapons were required to meet an accuracy of 90% at a distance of 300 meters. The G36
did not meet this requirement. The experts also refute the assertion of Heckler & Koch that the loss of precision through heating during fast
bursts of fire is a normal physical effect that affects each rifle.

Especially the conclusion that the G36 endangers the life of German soldiers has put German Minister of Defense Ursula von der Leyen
under pressure to take action. According to a spokesperson, the evaluation of the different reports will take several weeks. Subsequently,
commissions will be established in order to determine why the problems of the G36 that have been known since 2011 have not been addressed
earlier. The defense minister is already facing harsh critique. Agnieszka Brugger, the defense expert of the Green Party, for example,
questions whether von der Leyen is willing and able to change the course of the Ministry of Defense. According to Brugger, after coming to
office in December 2013 the new defense minister initially continued to purposefully obscure the issue, as did her predecessor.

Meanwhile, the planning office of the Ministry of Defense demands the immediate purchase of other assault rifles for foreign missions of
the German Armed Forces. The report advises to initiate the purchase of suitable assault rifles, including ammunition, as an interim solution
for current foreign missions and suggests that the G36 should only be used until an alternative has been found to equip all soldiers. A closer
reading of the report reveals, however, that not all experts concur. The Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology
and In-Service Support, for example, suggests that the G36 should continue to be used and even regenerated because the introduction of a
new weapon may take up to ten years. It even advocates that the stop on buying new G36 models imposed by the appropriations committee be
lifted and the service life of the G36 be extended beyond 2016.

However, according to the article, such a request from the ministry will be very difficult to convey in light of the publicized results of the
recent reports on the rifle. End OE Watch Commentary (Chadwick)

Heckler und Koch Gewehr Model 36 - the main weapon of the german army
(Bundeswehr). Source: Wikimedia Commons

OE Watch May 2015 29

TURKEY Top

The Emergence of a Joint Arab Alliance? 30 March 2015

“The Sunni Arab world is trying to deal with ISIS on the one hand and Iran’s expanding hegemony on
the other; while trying to establish a strategy independent of the US, and have the dominant [say] in
the future of the regional order.”

OE Watch Commentary: In late March Source: Soli Özel, “Arap ortak askeri gücü kuruluyor (A joint Arab military force is
Arab leaders meeting at the 26th Arab being formed),” Haberturk.com.tr, 30 March 2015, http://www.haberturk.com/yazarlar/
summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, decided to soli-ozel/1059695-arap-ortak-askeri-gucu-kuruluyor
“establish a joint Arab military force against
regional security threats against peace.” The “The decisions taken during the summit, which was chaired by the Egyptian President
accompanying passages from the Turkish and
Abdulfettah al-Sisi, are as follows:
international press discuss the significance
of this, how likely it is to succeed and what it
means for regional geopolitical dynamics. - The military force will form a leadership command within three months.
Membership of Arab countries are voluntary. The command force will be managed
As the first passage explains, the military from Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The force’s main mission will be to conduct
force is expected to form some kind of
operations against terror organizations in Arab countries.
leadership command within three months.
- Operation ‘Decisive Storm’, started against the Houthi militants in Yemen, by
Membership of Arab countries will be
voluntary. The command center will be 10 countries, especially Egypt, led by Saudi Arabia, will continue until peace is
managed from Egypt and Saudi Arabia. established.
The force’s main mission will be to conduct - Palestinian-Israeli peace will be established within one year. Israel’s withdrawal
operations against terrorist organizations in of the territories it has occupied and the establishment of Jerusalem as Palestine’s
Arab countries. capital will be added to the list of decisions in the next meeting.
Operation “Decisive Storm,” which began - Another meeting of foreign and relevant ministers will be held to establish a free
against the Houthi militants in Yemen by ten trade agreement among Arab countries.
countries, led by Saudi Arabia, will continue - Iran should resolve the ‘islands problem’ which has led to a political crisis between it
until peace is established. Due to Saudi Arabia’s and the United Arab Emirates.”
lead in this operation, the author claims that the ……
decision comes at a time when the Saudis have
emerged as a leader in the Arab world. It is not
“….At a time when Saudi Arabia’s leadership position in the Arab world is becoming
clear how this initiative will be realized, and
secure, the Arab world, or rather, the [Arab countries] other than Iraq and Syria, will
it may take a long time. The author says that
strength of the armies of Arab countries (except establish a joint force. How such a force, which has been tried before, will be established
for Egypt and Jordan) is questionable, claiming is unclear. It can be expected to take a long time. In particular, the armies for countries
that the Sunni Arab world is trying to establish other than Egypt and Jordan are questionable…. The Sunni Arab world is trying to deal
a strategy independent of the US and to have with ISIS on the one hand and Iran’s expanding hegemony on the other; while trying to
some influence over the future of the regional establish a strategy independent of the US, and have the dominant [say] in the future of
order while fighting ISIS and Iran’s increasing the regional order.
hegemonic expansion.

The second passage, from the Turkish

Source: “40 bin askerden oluşacak Arap Birliği ordusu geliyor (A United Arab military,
mainstream daily Sabah, quotes an Egyptian
of 40 thousand soldiers is coming),” Sabah.com.tr, 30 March 2015, http://www.sabah.
official as saying that the force would consist of com.tr/dunya/2015/03/30/40-bin-askerden-olusacak-arap-birligi-ordusu-geliyor
volunteers from Arab nations and that it would
have 40,000 soldiers, war planes and warships.
It also notes the words of Secretary General of “It is being noted that 5 months is needed for the army to be established. An Egyptian
the Arab League Nebil Arabi: “..the operation official said that the force would consist of volunteers from Arab nations and that the
in Yemen will continue until the Houthi coup force would have 40,000 soldiers, war planes and war ships… The Secretary General of
is over...the Joint Arab Force will also be the Arab League Nebil Arabi said that “..the operation in Yemen will continue until the
mobilized against radical groups in Iraq, Syria
Houthi coup is over” and that “the Joint Arab Force will also be mobilized against radical
and Libya.”
groups in Iraq, Syria and Libya.”

(continued)
OE Watch May 2015 30
TURKEY Top

Continued: The Emergence of a Joint Arab Alliance?

However, there are doubts about whether this Source: Bruce Reidel, “Can this joint Arab military force succeed where others have
can succeed. As the final passage discusses, failed?” Brookings.edu, 30 March 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/
this has been tried before, but has not been posts/2015/03/30-riedel-can-joint-arab-military-force-succeed-yemen-saudi-arabia
successful. The author, a scholar, claims that it
is more likely that military cooperation will be “It is more likely that military cooperation will be more bilateral and episodic than
more bilateral and ad-hoc than the plans of a the ambitious plans laid out in the Arab summit. Ad hoc arrangements blessed by Arab
joint Arab force. End OE Watch Commentary
summits seem more likely than a NATO-like joint force and integrated command
(Kaya)
structure.”

Changing Trends in Israel – Turkey

Security and Military Relations:
Their Perspectives

This article analyzes the changing trends in the military and security
relations between Turkey and Israel. It identifies factors of the
operational environment that influence bilateral relations and includes
a thorough discussion of each of the factors from a Turkish and Israeli
perspective. It argues that relations are a product of the structural
changes in the two countries’ operational environments.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Changing-
Trends-in-Israel-Turkey-Security-Relations.pdf

OE Watch May 2015 31

TURKEY Top

Perspectives on Turkey’s support 31 March 2015

for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen

“By dragging Turkey into a sectarian war as a backup to [the] “Sunni camp” in the region, Erdoğan
steps into a sharp confrontation with Iran.”

OE Watch Commentary: In late March Turkish

Source: Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, “Incirlik’i nasıl açtık? (How did we open Incirlik?),”
President Erdoğan declared his support for a Saudi-
Milliyet.com.tr, 30 March 2015, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/incirlik-i-nasil-actik-/
led military operation in Yemen targeting Houthi siyaset/ydetay/2035996/default.htm
rebels. At a press conference he claimed that the
group’s links to Tehran were evidence of Iranian
efforts to dominate the region. The accompanying “A sectarian-based alliance
passages by Turkish analysts discuss this move, what
…providing logistical support to the ‘Sunni block’ that Saudis have established
it means and why they think it is a bad foreign policy
against Houthis in Yemen, is in my opinion, totally wrong. This is a dirty
move for Turkey to join a sectarian fight.
alliance which is against democracy and based on sectarianism. Those ruling
The first accompanying passage, by Aslı Turkey know that the Saudis’ only goal is to protect their regime and disallow
Aydıntaşbaş, a respected journalist and columnist any democratic attempt in the Arab geography. When this is the case, what are
for the daily Milliyet, claims that providing logistical
we doing there? The things that are happening in Yemen are bad but it should
support to the Sunni block that Saudis have
not be forgotten that those Houthis, about whom you say “should leave Yemen
established against Houthis in Yemen is wrong. She
argues that joining the Saudis would be a sectarian- immediately” make up 40% of Yemen’s population. It is one thing to object to
based alliance and claims that the Saudis’ only goal the things happening in Yemen; and quite another to get arm-in-arm with oil
is to protect their regime and prevent democratic kingdoms and [those supportive of] coups. Just last month, Ankara was saying
initiatives in the Arab geography. She points out that about Libya, “Do not [interfere with] in a civil war with bombs”; but when it
in Libya Turkey had advocated not interfering in a comes to Shi’ite opposition in Yemen, it has said, “Do it!”. I don’t know when
civil war, whereas now, in Yemen, and is thus being Ankara, who has been wanting to see change in Syria for years, subtly appears
inconsistent. She argues that it is quite inappropriate
to have switched to accepting the “stability instead of democracy!” thesis. All I
for Turkey to become part of this sectarian war.
know is that it is not appropriate for Turkey to dive into this sectarian fight and be
The second passage, by Fehim Tastekin, a respected part of this picture.”
Turkish journalist and analyst, claims that by dragging
Turkey into a sectarian war the president is stepping
into a sharp confrontation with Iran, unprecedented Source: Fehim Tastekin, “Turkey’s misguided Yemen move,” Al Monitor.com, 31
even in the era of Turkey’s secularist-Kemalist March 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/turkey-yemen-
move-seeks-to-avenge-iran-gulf-money.html
governments. He claims that one possible reason for
Turkey’s stand could be that Erdoğan is approaching
the issue with anger towards Iran, due to his view that “By dragging Turkey into a sectarian war as a backup to King Salman bin Abdul-
Iran is responsible for the failure of Turkey’s plans in Aziz Al Saud Salman’s drive for a “Sunni camp” in the region, Erdoğan steps
Syria and Iraq. He points to remarks that Erdoğan
into a sharp confrontation with Iran, unprecedented even in the era of Turkey’s
made on March 27 in which he said, “Iran is virtually
secularist-Kemalist governments.
trying to dominate the region…Could this be allowed?
This has begun to annoy many countries- us as well In this Saudi-led coalition, no one has been as explicit as Erdoğan in voicing the
as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. This is not really hostile sentiments against Iran. The Saudi king seems to be leading the actual
tolerable…” He also quotes a university professor who war, and Erdoğan the war of words. It is an attitude aimed at strengthening bonds
points out that “ joining this camp will make Erdoğan
with Gulf states at the expense of burning the bridges with Iran, the country with
one of the leaders containing the very Arab uprisings
which Turkey has had its most stable relationship.
he had supported from the outset.”
….
While Erdoğan’s words attracted a harsh reaction
from Iranian officials, his planned visit to Tehran, Fulya Atacan from Istanbul’s Yildiz Technical University who specializes on
where he downplayed the two countries’ foreign Egypt, told Al-Monitor that “Tragically, joining this camp will make Erdoğan
policy differences, took place in April. End OE Watch one of the leaders containing the very Arab uprisings he had supported from the
Commentary (Kaya) outset.”

OE Watch May 2015 32

TURKEY Top

The Future of Turkey’s UAVs 31 March 2015

“In the civilian air space, fully autonomous flights are not allowed. It is inevitable that this regulation will
evolve according to the technological developments in the fields of robotic and artificial intelligence.”

OE Watch Commentary: The March 2015

issue of MSI, a Turkish monthly military
journal on defense technologies, featured a
piece analyzing UAV-related developments in
Turkey’s defense industry in the last ten years.
The piece also discusses the future of UAVs
and what the Turkish defense industry needs to
focus on if it wants to be a player in this field in
the next 5-10 years. The passages below feature
some highlights from this article, including
a discussion of the integration of UAVs into
civilian air space. TAI Anka UAV on display at 2014 Farnborough Air Show. Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:TAI-
ANKA-UAV-FAR14-3659.JPG
Apparently, all of the current regulations
regarding the integration of UAVs into civilian
air space require a pilot on the ground Source: “Türk Savunma ve Havacılık Sanayisi’nin IHA’lı 10 Yılı! (10 Years of UAVs in
who manages the air vehicle. Thus, fully the Turkish Defense and Aerospace Industry!),” MSI Aerospace Defense Technologies
autonomous flights are not allowed in civilian and Strategy, March 2015
airspace. The article notes that it is inevitable
that this regulation will evolve in parallel with
technological developments in the fields of “One of the most frequently discussed topics today is the integration of large UAVs into
robotic and artificial intelligence. civilian air space. All of the current regulations regarding the integration of UAVs into
civilian air space require a pilot on the ground that manages the air vehicle. Thus, in
The piece claims that for Turkish UAV
the civilian air space, fully autonomous flights are not allowed. It is inevitable that this
producers to be competitive in the future they
regulation will evolve according to the technological developments in the fields of robotic
must be equipped with modern systems to detect
and escape, and they must be able to quickly and artificial intelligence.
adapt to various tasks. For a 10-year horizon,
In the coming five years, for a UAV to be competitive in global markets it must have the
it claims that UAVs must have extraordinary
following:
autonomous capabilities, the ability to ascend
and descend vertically and the ability to stay in - Civil certification
the air for over 72 hours. The article says that
these are the guidelines that the Turkish UAV - Equipped with modern systems to detect and escape
industry must follow, regardless of whether
- Able to adapt quickly to armed and unarmed tasks;
they want to be a producer for just the Turkish
market, an exporter or a global player in this In the coming 10 years, for a UAV to be competitive in global markets it must be a
field.
flying robot with the following capabilities:
Turkey produces its own military UAS and
- Extraordinary autonomous capabilities
has been involved in countermeasure research
and development as well. These include kinetic - Capability to stay in the air for long periods of time (72 hours+)
attack munitions, improved detection systems
and high-energy lasers. Turkish interest in the - Capability to vertically ascend and descend
topic extends to research and development
In our opinion, whether it wants to just produce for the domestic market, or export to a
in other countries and even architectural
counters to UAS surveillance. End OE Watch few Muslim countries, or be a global player in world markets, Turkish UAV producers
Commentary (Kaya) must follow this roadmap.

OE Watch May 2015 33

TURKEY Top

Turkey Facing Pressure for Role as a Militant Transit Point 9 April 2015

“Militants who entered Turkey with these fake passports are hosted either in hotels or guesthouses for a day
before they join [Islamic State] in Syria.””

OE Watch Commentary: Since the civil war

Source: “More than 100,000 fake Turkish passports given to ISIL” Todayszaman.com, 9
in Syria broke out in 2011, it is well documented
April 2015.
that thousands of foreign fighters have transited
Turkey for jihad in Syria and Iraq. The Islamic
State has claimed that 400 of these foreign More than 100,000 fake Turkish passports given to ISIL
fighters are Chinese – likely referring to
Uighurs – while other sources suggest there are A Uyghur Turk working for ISIL to provide militants with passports worldwide, Nurali
up to 1,000 Uighurs in Syria and Iraq. From T.’s office in İstanbul’s Zeytinburnu district functions as an ISIL passport office. Each
the Chinese perspective, the reality that several passport was sold for $200. More than 50,000 Uyghur Turks came to Turkey with these
hundred to one thousand of its citizens are in fake passports from China via Thailand and Malaysia and entered Syria after staying a
Syria and Iraq acquiring militant training and
day in İstanbul, according to a story in Meydan Daily.
issuing violent anti-Chinese propaganda to
encourage attacks against China is a security A.G., an aide to Nurali T., claimed that most of the Uyghurs with fake passports were
concern. Dozens of other countries, from caught by police in Turkish airports but they were released in Turkey after their passports
the US to Europe to East Asia, similarly are
were seized. A.G. further said that Nurali T. organizes recruits from around the world
concerned about their citizens fighting in Syria
from his İstanbul office. Militants who entered Turkey with these fake passports are
and Iraq and returning home to launch attacks.
hosted either in hotels or guesthouses for a day before they join ISIL in Syria.
An article in Turkey’s Today Zaman on 9
April cited a Uighur source knowledgeable The Turkish government’s stance toward ISIL has so far been ambiguous. The Justice
about illegal passports in the Zeytinburnu and Development Party (AK Party) government has been accused of supporting the
section of Istanbul, which is home to many terrorist organization by turning a blind eye to its militants crossing the border and even
Uighurs and Central Asians. The source said buying its oil. The NATO ally has also been facing a backlash for its reluctance to join
that up to 100,000 fake Turkish passports have US-led coalition efforts to eliminate ISIL, feeding speculation that this reluctance may
been illegally given to Islamic State militants. be an indicator that some Turkish officials are ideologically close to the terrorist group.
While this number is almost certainly an
A 2014 report, Sezgin Tanrıkulu, deputy chairman of the main opposition Republican
exaggeration, the fact that several hundred
People’s Party (CHP), said that ISIL terrorists fighting in Syria have also been claimed
Uighurs have received illegal passports, as
evidenced by Uighurs captured with Turkish to have been treated in hospitals in Turkey. However, publicly, Turkish authorities have
passports in Thailand and Malaysia, is a cause strongly condemned the terrorist acts of ISIL militants and say these actions have
of some friction between China and Turkey. nothing to do with Islam.
Moreover, if Turkey is unable to effectively
prevent fraudulent or black market Turkish
passports from being spread among militant networks, it will lead to Turkey becoming further entrenched as a haven for militants in transit to
jihad. This will increase tensions between Turkey and other countries who see their citizens traveling via Turkey to Syria and Iraq.

The article also points out that the ruling AK Party in Turkey is facing increasing pressure from the opposition party about the country’s
role as a transit point for militants. Taken together, the article highlights a catch-22 for Turkey. If the country cracks down on illegal passports
and militants transiting the country, the militants may target Turkey for attack. However, if Turkey allows the current course to continue,
its diplomatic relations with other countries and internal political situation will sour. Nonetheless, the growing international and domestic
concern about this issue is rising with no clear solution in sight. End OE Watch Commentary (Zenn)

OE Watch May 2015 34

MIDDLE EAST Top

Qassem Soleimani Voted Man of Year in Iran 21 March 2015

“Dialogue…and combat are the two wings that are able to fly together and give this country victory.”

OE Watch Commentary: Qassem Soleimani,

Source: “Mohammad Javad Zarif va Sardar Qassem Soleimani Chehreh-haye Sal 93
head of the Qods [Jerusalem] Force, the elite
Shodand,” (Mohammad Javad Zarif and Gen. Qassem Soleimani were the faces of 2014)
unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
tners.ir, 21 March 2015. http://tnews.ir/news/A23739030808.html
(IRGC) charged with export of revolution,
has for almost 20 years commanded the
organization. Given the secretive nature of Zarif and Soleimani were the men of the year for 2014
Qods’ Force operation, it made sense that for
A rational and balanced society is perhaps the best description of the people of
years Soleimani remained in the shadows.
There were few photographs of him, and Iran these days… According to a report by “Tabnak,” Tabnak conducted a survey to
he would actively keep himself out of the determine the man of the year; the audience was asked to comment on the most famous
headlines. men of the year, and eight individuals were put forward for the poll and comments. They
were [Qods Force head Qassem] Soleimani; [Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad] Zarif,
This has changed in recent years. Soleimani
[Tehran MP Ali] Motahari; [Health Minister Hassan] Qazizadeh Hashemi; [President
has become a public figure. He has allowed
himself to be photographed first among forces Hassan] Rouhani; [Former President Ali Akbar] Hashemi [Rafsanjani]; [Former Science
loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Minister Reza] Faraji Dana; and [Iranian mathematician] Maryam Mirzakhani were the
then in Iraq among Shi‘ite volunteers fighting to eight people presented by Tabnak. For the sake of ease and time, the top four and four
regain ground lost to the Islamic State of Iraq runners up were decided, and only the top four were presented in the final survey, and
and Syria. He has sought out the limelight and Mohammad Javad Zarif and General Qassem Soleimani were selected as the winners
cultivated a personality cult within Iran which by the Tabnak audience. The remarkable thing about the poll was unlike those of some
depicts him as a soldier’s soldier and a man
political factions and analysis, the audience was drawn from the most educated strata of
who sacrifices everything to defend oppressed
society… And they decided that dialogue with the world and, when necessary, jihad and
Shi‘ites.
combat are the two wings that are able to fly together and give this country victory.
It is therefore not surprising that in recent
polls conducted by Iranian press outlets,
Soleimani has emerged as one of the most popular men in Iran. In one poll conducted by Khabar Online, Soleimani edged out last year’s
winner, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. In the poll cited in the excerpted article, Soleimani is runner up to Zarif, the chief face
of Iran’s nuclear negotiations. The significance of the Tabnak.ir poll, which the excerpted article cites, however, is both that Tabnak is a
“pragmatic” outlet closely associated with former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and that the poll claims to represent the
more educated elite within Iranian society. Hence, Soleimani seems to have real grassroots support across Iranian society.

While Iranians are more open than their neighbors and will participate in polls more forthrightly, state control over newspapers and
websites means that only those with approved results can be published openly. That Soleimani is featured as either man of the year or
runner-up in prominent polls then raises the question as to why are such polls being published. Few Iranian officials—especially those with
the portfolio that Soleimani oversees—would expose themselves without purpose. With regard to Soleimani’s growing public presence, one
intriguing possibility is that he is readying himself as a potential presidential candidate. The Iranian system is hardly democratic—less
than one percent of candidates on average are cleared to run. Whenever one faction gets too powerful, the Supreme Leader privileges other
factions to maintain a balance of power. Hence, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, close to the Revolutionary Guards, replaced the
more reformist-minded Mohammad Khatami, purging many of his supporters in the process. Current President Hassan Rouhani behaved
likewise, replacing many of Ahmadinejad’s IRGC supporters with a mix of pragmatists and Intelligence Ministry veterans. Soleimani’s rise
suggests Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is looking for an alternative to become president should Rouhani and Zarif push their international
agenda beyond Khamenei’s comfort zone. Given Soleimani’s history in the Qods Force, a Soleimani presidency might complicate Iran’s
relations not only with the United States and Europe, but also with Iran’s immediate neighbors. End OE Watch Commentary (Rubin)

OE Watch May 2015 35

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Iran Releases Qassem Soleimani Documentary 7 April 2015

““Commander” depicts that it is a strategic approach which will destroy the Zionist regime and the
Islamic State.”

OE Watch Commentary: Qassem Soleimani Source: “Zendigi Hajji Qassem Soleimani Film Mishavad” (The Life of Hajji Qassem
is the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Soleimani Made into a Film), QasemSoleimani.ir, 7 April 2015. http://qasemsoleimani.ir/
Guard Corps (IRGC)’s Qods [Jerusalem] article/2590.html
Force, the IRGC’s elite unit charged with
export of revolution. In 2007, the US Treasury
Commander: The Life and Times
Department designated it as an organization
in support of terrorism and also singled out
of Qassem Soleimani
Soleimani. He remains on the Treasury’s Sayyid Sa’id Hassanpour, director
Specially Designated Nations and Blocked and documentary filmmaker, spoke
Person List. Annex One to U.N. Security to Tasnim about the production of the
Council Resolution 1747 likewise cites movie “Commander,” which focuses on
Soleimani as a key IRGC individual subject to
the international activities of the Qods
sanctions. That the Islamic Republic maintains
Force and aims to depict the conquest of
a website dedicated to Soleimani suggests that,
regardless of any other rapprochement, it very Jerusalem by the forces of resistance, and
much supports Soleimani and his activities. the Iranian commanders and especially
Commander Hajji Qassem Soleimani.
On an April 7, 2015 story, the website
The film has begun production. The
announced production on “Commander,” a
biopic of Qassem Soleimani and his efforts to film “Commander” depicts that it is a
counter the Islamic State as well as promote strategic approach which will destroy the
“resistance” against Israel. Indeed, the Zionist regime and the Islamic State. He
description of the film in the excerpted article added, Hassan Abbadi, Jamal Shorjeh,
suggests equivalence between fighting the Abulqassem Talabi, Nader Talabzadeh,
Islamic State and destroying the “Zionist and Shahryar Zenshanas were members of
regime,” i.e., Israel. This suggests that
the production council who accompanied me in this first cinematic experience. He added
antipathy toward Israel remains an ideological
that due to the special circumstances of the axis of resistance, the proxy war to conquer
pillar of the Islamic Republic and the IRGC.
During the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) the IRGC Jerusalem and destroy the Zionist regime is led by the strategic and military power of the
declared its war aims not simply to be expulsion Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
of Iraqi forces from Iranian territory or defeat
of Saddam Hussein’s Baathist regime in Iraq,
but rather the liberation of Jerusalem.

That “Commander” focuses on Qods Force

efforts to conquer Jerusalem indicates that
Iranian efforts to arm and train terrorist groups
like Hamas, Hezbollah, and elements on the
Golan Heights and perhaps even in the Sinai
Peninsula will continue, and that the IRGC
will use such a campaign to ensure it remains
front and center in the competition for power
and resources within Iran. End OE Watch
Commentary (Rubin)

OE Watch May 2015 36

MIDDLE EAST Top

Commemorating Afghan Shi’ites Killed in Syria 8 April 2015

“Their goal was first pilgrimage to… and second, defense of the holy places in Damascus.”

OE Watch Commentary: Qassem Soleimani’s website bears Source: “Agar Tip Fatamioun Nabud, Chizi as Haram Hazarat-e
watching, given what the head of the Qods [Jerusalem] Force Zaynab Baqi Namandeh Bud” (If it were not for the Fatamioun
represents within the Iranian political context. One article/ Brigade, there would be Nothing Left of the Zaynab Shrine),
interview excerpted here announces the March 2015 death of one QasemSoleimani.ir, 8 April 2015. http://qasemsoleimani.ir/
article/2614.html
Ali Reza Tavassoli, the commander of Afghan jihadists fighting
in Syria. The article, however, may raise more questions than it
answers. Tavassoli’s photograph suggests that he is an Afghan Commemorating Afghan Shi’ites Killed in Syria
Hazara, a Shi‘ite Afghan ethnicity with a large presence in Kabul
Cleansing of the body of the martyr Ali Reza Tavassoli,
but traditionally hailing from the mountainous area of central
Afghanistan. commander of the Fatamioun Brigade (The Afghan Jihadists in
Syria), buried in Holy Mashhad on 14 Esfand of this past year
The excerpted article, which is actually an interview with [March 5, 2015], the correspondent of Mashregh engaged in a
associates of Tavassoli, reports that he was buried in Mashhad. It
conversation with one of the friends and comrades of the Martyr
was unclear whether this means he was recruited in Iran. This would
Tavassoli.
be a troubling development, as Iran still hosts perhaps one million
Afghan refugees. Should they become indoctrinated and fodder for Martyr Ali Reza Tavassoli (“Abu Hamid”), Martyr Bakhshi
Qods Force recruitment, this would expand Iran’s ability to fight by (“Fatah”), Martyr Husseini, and Martyr Kalani were from the
proxy not only in battlegrounds like Syria, but also in Afghanistan Fatamioun Brigade that was formed in partnership by the Islamic
itself. Revolutionary Guard Corps, and their goal was first pilgrimage
Whether recruited in Iran or Afghanistan, the presence of an to the [Sayyid] Ruqayya [Mosque] and the Zaynab Shrine, and
Afghan Shi‘ite force in Damascus also suggests significant Iranian second, defense of these holy places in Damascus.
assistance with regard to logistics: it is much more difficult for an
Afghan to travel to Syria than an Iraqi who speaks the language and
needs only cross a single border. Question: How old were the Martyrs Tavassoli and Bakhshi?
Martyr Tavassoli was around 45 years old, and Martyr Reza
The excerpted article does dispel the notion often voiced that
military-age men captured by opposition groups in Syria are mere Bakhshi was 38 years old. Tavassoli was married, and had three
religious pilgrims, as the memorial article to Tavassoli makes clear children, and they are 6, 7, and 9 years old, and the rest of the
that he and his band sought not only to visit prominent Shi’ite shrines martyrs were single….
in Syria, but to defend them militarily as well. End OE Watch
Commentary (Rubin)

OE Watch May 2015 37

MIDDLE EAST Top

Sisi’s Gamble 16 April 2015

“… The time for talking, promises, accolades and pleasantries has ended …”

OE Watch Commentary: Suppose the Saudi-

led campaign in Yemen were to incorporate a
ground component in the near future. Armchair
strategists in the Arabic-language cybersphere
generally agree that the key mission for such a
force would be to secure Aden so that deposed
Yemeni president Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi and
his backers can assemble and regroup. As to the
composition of this theoretical construct, most
commentators believe that after being rebuffed
by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is counting on
Egypt to contribute to any hypothetical ground
component. The decision is a weighty one
for Egypt’s leadership, as the ghosts of Abdel
Nasser’s failed military campaign in Yemen in Egyptian Defense Minister, GEN Sedqi Sobhi, visiting the Rapid Deployment
Forces, 11 April 2015. Source: https://www.facebook.com/Egy.Army.Spox/photos/
the 1960s (blamed for Egypt’s 1967 military pcb.641970185933967/641969765934009/?type=1&theater (Egyptian Army
defeat by Israel) loom large in the national official spokesman Facebook page).
consciousness. Although in public Egyptian
leaders have offered unwavering support for the
Source:
Saudi campaign, consensus at the highest levels
!‫هل قررت مصر المشاركة بقوات برية في اليمن ؟‬
should not be taken for granted, as the first Gamal Sultan. “Has Egypt decided to send ground troops to Yemen?” al-Mesryoon. 6
accompanying article explains. April 2015. http://goo.gl/xUXOns
Historical burden is not all that makes this
a complicated decision for Egyptian leaders.
The time for talking, promises, accolades and pleasantries has ended. [Sisi’s] decision
There are practical reasons too: for well over
will have a high cost regardless and thus the hesitation and worry is understandable.
a year, the Egyptian military has been unable
to put down a domestic insurgency in the What is most notable is the seeming disagreement within Egyptian sovereign institutions
Sinai. Fighting in Yemen, even if as part of a on this issue, as some appear clearly against intervention, particularly a ground
coalition, is unlikely to be any easier and may intervention. Retired GEN Samih Saif al-Yazal, who is close to a known state institution
weaken Egypt’s position in the Sinai. Egypt’s realizes this and has clearly and firmly rejected the idea of participating in the war,
only stated national security interest in Yemen considering doing so a major strategic blunder…. Saif al-Yazal would not be allowed to
is ensuring unimpeded maritime transit flows
through the Red Sea. In a recent interview (continued)
published in the daily al-Masry al-Youm,
Mohab Mamish, a former head of Egypt’s Navy
who was recently appointed to head the Suez
Canal Authority, makes clear that Egypt shares
this interest with the great powers and hence
is not overly concerned with having to assert
its position on this issue. Egypt’s participation
in “Decisive Storm” is therefore not framed in
the language of imminent threats to national
security, but rather the language of alliances
and the importance of halting both Iranian
expansionism and religious extremism while
preserving the status quo in the Gulf.
Egyptian Defense Minister, GEN Sedqi Sobh meeting with Saudi Defense Minister
On 30 March Egyptian Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman, 14 April 2015. Source: https://www.facebook.com/Egy.Army.Spox/
photos/pcb.643456312452021/643455472452105/?type=1&theater (Egyptian Army official
spokesman Facebook page).

OE Watch May 2015 38

MIDDLE EAST Top

Continued: Sisi’s Gamble

General Sedqi Sobhi met with a contingent speak on such a matter on his own or without a green light, thus we should understand
from the country’s Airborne Rapid Deployment his words to represent the viewpoint of an important part of Egypt’s leadership… it is
Forces (RDF), who were preparing to deploy clear that Egypt has moved from the era of festivals, celebrations, songs and political
to the UAE and participate in the latest round calm that followed the deposing of Morsi and the Muslim Brothers, to a stage of difficult
of the “Righteous Arrow” (Siham al-Haq)
and fateful decision-making….
exercises, hosted by their Emirati counterparts.
A joint Egypt-UAE force conducted airstrikes
over Libya earlier this year, and one would
Source:
expect this partnership to underpin any
‫مميش يكشف تفاصيل تصدي البحرية لقوات أمريكية‬
deepening of Egyptian involvement in Yemen. “Mamish reveals details of the navy confronting American forces,” al-Masry al-Youm.
On 11 April, upon returning from a brief 23 March 2015. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/686340
trip to meet with his Pakistani counterparts,
Sobhi attended a military parade of the RDF
(for background on the RDF see: http://fmso. Q: Isn’t it possible that the United States would use the Huthis to pressure Egypt
leavenworth.army.mil/OEWatch/201406/ with the threat of Bab al-Mandab, especially following the recent American-Iranian
MiddleEast_05.html). Egypt’s Ministry of rapprochement?
Defense uploaded video highlights from the
A: Even if that were true, would countries like China, Japan, Korea, Russia and India
event. The images portray a well armed force
with firepower to match or exceed that of allow the United States or its proxies in the region to close Bab al-Mandab?…
anyone on the ground in Yemen. The RDF
also includes elements from the country’s elite
Source:
anti-terrorism 777 and 999 units. Following the ‫ تدريب أم تمهيد لدخول اليمن؟‬..‫المناورة المصرية السعودية‬
parade Sobhi headed to Riyadh, where leaders Mohammed Naser. “The Saudi-Egyptian exercise… training or paving the way for going
of Egypt and Saudi Arabia agreed to form a into Yemen?” Masr al-Arabia. 16 April 2015. http://goo.gl/toHtDH
committee to discuss holding a joint military
exercise in Saudi Arabia. The countries have
held three other joint exercises since 2008, as The Tabuk-1 maneuvers took place in Tabuk, northwestern Saudi Arabia, from 7-22
the third article notes. According to an analyst November 2008. Tobuk-2 took place in Hamam, near the Egyptian city of Alexandria, on
cited in the article, a key goal would be to get 21 October 2010. Tobuk-3 was held in Saudi Arabia and lasted from 8-20 May 2013. This
Egyptian forces to interface with their Saudi last one is the largest joint exercise in history for the two countries… Hossam Sawailim,
counterparts while also getting acclimated to a strategic analyst, said that the expected exercise between Egypt and Saudi Arabia aims
a Yemen-like environment. End OE Watch
to train Egyptian troops in difficult terrain in preparation for a ground war against Huthi
Commentary (Winter)
forces in Yemen… it will allow participating countries to exchange military experiences
and train in a variety of settings…

Egyptian Defense Minister, GEN Sedqi Sobh meeting with Pakistani counterparts, 6 April
2015. Source: (Egyptian Army official spokesman Facebook page).https://www.facebook.
com/Egy.Army.Spox/photos/pcb.639844799479839/639844562813196/?type=1

OE Watch May 2015 39

MIDDLE EAST Top

Tunisian Border Security 14 April 2015

“… the Tunisian army has many needs…”

OE Watch Commentary: According to the Source: Georges Malbrunot. “Des armes françaises pour la Tunisie” (French
excerpted article from the French newspaper, Weapons for Tunisia), Le Figaro. 27 March 2015. http://www.lefigaro.fr/
Le Figaro, on 18 March 2015 Tunisia’s foreign international/2015/03/27/01003-20150327ARTFIG00300-des-armes-francaises-pour-la-
minister was in Paris discussing an agreement tunisie.php
for his country to buy French weapons and
equipment. That same day, gunmen stormed
In preparation for the visit to France by [Tunisian]
the Bardo Museum in the capital Tunis and
premiere Beji Caid Essebsi on 7 and 8 April, several
slaughtered 21 people, mostly foreign tourists.
This event, combined with growing regional meetings took place in Paris over the past few weeks
turmoil and uncertainty, has put Tunisia’s between French, Tunisian and also Emirati officials.
military and security forces in the spotlight. The The goal of these secret meetings is to set up a three-
process of upgrading these forces is already way deal to allow Tunis to buy French weapons and
underway, with military aid to Tunisia set to equipment with UAE financing… somewhat like the
double in the next year. deal Paris struck with Saudi Arabia to furnish the
A key area of concern for the Tunisian Lebanese Army, only at a much smaller scale, as we
government is border security. With this are talking here of a shopping list of a few hundred
in mind, Tunisia and Algeria have recently million Euros… According to a French military
increased cooperation along their shared official, the Tunisian army has many needs, including
border. As the second accompanying excerpt
“assault rifles, radars, sensors, night-vision goggles,
notes, in the aftermath of the Bardo attack
small ships, etc…”
Tunisian and Algerian forces worked together Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi.
to kill Luqman Abu Sakhr, the alleged Source: Wikimedia Commons
mastermind of the attacks who was based in the
mountainous border area of central Tunisia.
A few days later militants shot and killed Source: Yaqin Hussam al-Din. “Algeria and Tunisia join forces to fight ‘terrorism’,”
three Tunisian soldiers at a checkpoint in the al-Araby al-Jadid. 30 March 2015. http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/politics/2015/4/1/
flashpoint province of Kasserine, allegedly as a algeria-and-tunisia-join-forces-to-fight-terrorism
reprisal.

Tunisia’s main concern, though, is its 459-km- A special anti-terrorism unit is understood to have killed the three Algerians, and six
long eastern border with Libya. According to other suspected militants, while the gunmen were travelling to the Libyan border to pick-
the third accompanying article, from the Qatari up materials for car bombs… “Joint analysis of documents found by the Tunisian army in
newspaper, al-Quds, Tunisia is engaged in a terrorist hideout, and the arrest of two members of the Uqba bin Nafi Battalion, helped
negotiations with Thales, a French company, to
identify the route members of the terrorist group took to collect the car bombs,” said
build a surveillance wall along the border. The
Algerian security sources. The same sources explained that troops from both countries
author of the fourth accompanying article is
skeptical, calling the project “bogus, extremely encircled the two-car convoy along a mountain pass in Gafsa, near the shared border.
expensive, and totally ineffective.” Tunisian forces then engaged the group while Algerian forces stopped its members
fleeing into Algeria. [Tunisia’s interior minister Najem] Gharsalli has previously thanked
The borders of North Africa and the Sahel
Algerian authorities for supporting Tunisia’s “anti-terror” activities. Algeria, meanwhile,
are and will remain difficult to police. Still,
no one is about to start building anything recently gave Tunisia military equipment to help form a counter-terrorism tracking
resembling the gigantic booby-trapped berms unit…
dividing Moroccan-controlled areas of the
Western Sahara from the desert beyond. (continued)
Instead, the search for electronic solutions is
likely to continue. Algeria, for one, is taking
this technology seriously. In October 2014 the
country set up a joint venture with a German
company to locally manufacture electronic

OE Watch May 2015 40

MIDDLE EAST Top

Continued: Tunisian Border Security

systems and equipment for the Algerian Army. Source:

It is unclear, though, whether anything of use ‫إقامة سياج إلكتروني على طول الحدود لمنع تسلل المتشددين‬
has been produced there yet. End OE Watch Mohammed Wamusi. “Electronic border fence to keep out infiltrators...,” al-Quds al-
Commentary (Winter) Arabi, 7 April 2015. http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=323243

French newspapers noted that the French company Thales is currently engaged in
negotiations to build an electronic fence along the Tunisia-Libya border aimed at
monitoring and preventing armed extremists from sneaking across the border into
Tunisia…

Source: Nebil ben Yahmed, “Frontière électronique entre la Tunisie et la Libye, un

leurre du groupe Thales” (Electronic border between Tunisia and Libya a delusion of the
Thales Group), Tunisie Secret. 30 March 2015. http://www.tunisie-secret.com/Frontiere-
electronique-entre-la-Tunisie-et-la-Libye-un-leurre-du-groupe-Thales_a1391.html

The negotiations were begun under the government of Mahdi Jomaa, who did not
have time to approve this bogus, extremely expensive, and totally ineffective project…
Neighboring Algeria, which borders six countries (Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Niger,
Mauritania, Mali) has treated the problem by mobilizing men and weapons. This is what
the current Tunisian government ought to do to truly secure the border with Libya and
avoid the worst possible outcome, an ISIL invasion.

Tunisian Topography.
Source: “Tunisia Topography” by
Sadalmelik - Own work. Licensed
under Public Domain via Wikimedia
Commons

(Above) Tunisian Topography.

Source: “Tunisia Topography” by Sadalmelik - Own work. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons

(Below) View of Chaambi mountain, on the western border between Algeria and Tunisia, Kasserine Province.
Source: “Chambi1” by Nabucodonosor - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

OE Watch May 2015 41

MIDDLE EAST Top

What is Yemen’s Southern Resistance? 12 April 2015

“… As soon as promises made to the leaders of these groups (often involving money) go unfulfilled, they
turn the weapons obtained from the state against it …”

OE Watch Commentary: Much of Yemen’s

ground war is a fight between militias
calling themselves “popular committees” or
“popular resistance.” Groups on both sides
of the conflict use this or similar terminology.
Recently, though, the focus has turned to
southern militias that have resisted and in
some cases expelled the Huthis and their
allies from several parts of Aden. These
groups, which call themselves the “Southern
Resistance” and/or “Southern Popular
Committees,” have become the key on-the-
ground partner for the Saudi-led “Decisive
Storm” bombing campaign. Who are they?

The emergence of the contemporary

southern armed resistance can be traced
to the tumultuous 2010-2012 period, when
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
“Divided Yemen” by Map of North and South Yemen. Source: Wikimedia Commons
militants took over several important parts of
Abyan and Shabwa Provinces. Unable to regain
the areas alone, the Yemeni military bolstered Source:
its ranks by enlisting locals to form militias, ‫ برميل الحروب والصراعات‬:‫اللجان الشعبية في اليمن‬
called “popular committees.” Once major Faraa al-Musalimi. “Popular committees in Yemen: barrels for war and conflict,” al-
operations against AQAP ceased in 2013, some Masdar. 12 April 2015. http://almasdaronline.com/article/70715
of the southern militias began attacking the
very government forces that had armed them in
the first place. As the first article notes, this was … one of the main features of the current and future conflict in Yemen is the flourishing
often due to disputes over unfulfilled payments. of the Popular Committees which the Huthis have called by different names, such as
“popular committees” sometimes and “revolutionary committees” others… another set
The proliferation of militias is not the only
of popular committees was formed between 2010-2012 in the provinces of Abyan and
reason southern rebel unity should not be taken
for granted. Since the 1986 civil war in what Shabwa in the south of the country to support the army in its fight against al-Qaida.
was then South Yemen (PDRY), the political Many of their fighters were recently moved to Aden to help defend the city against an
class of Yemen’s south has been divided into expected attack by pro-Huthi popular committees… As soon as promises made to the
two broad camps. The first of these may, leaders of these groups (often involving money) go unfulfilled, they turn the weapons
roughly speaking, be called the secessionist obtained from the state against it, as occurred when the main roads were blocked
group (referred to as the “Tughma” faction in by tribal groups that had participated in the fight against the Huthis in the Hashid
Arabic). They are led by Ali Salem al-Beidh and
tribal areas in the north, or the popular committees in Abyan Province who took over
enjoy strong support in the provinces of Lahj
government buildings there and prevented them from regaining them since they had not
and Dalie. The second group accepts a unified
Yemen but calls for greater southern autonomy received a promised payment from the government…
(known as the “Zumra” faction in Arabic).
Their public face is Abd Rabbo Mansour (continued)
Hadi and they have historical support in the
provinces of Shabwa and Hadramout. In 2012 President Hadi began a program to reincorporate former military officers from the Tughma
faction who had left the country following South Yemen’s defeat to the North in the 1994 civil war. Most prominent among them was Mahmoud
al-Subaihi, whom Hadi named defense minister in 2014 and whose whereabouts are currently unknown.

The Aden-based, Saudi-backed southern resistance recently issued a statement, excerpted alongside this article, on unifying its ranks
and renaming itself the “Southern Popular Force.” While the Syrian conflict has taught us that statements of unity alone are meaningless,

OE Watch May 2015 42

MIDDLE EAST Top

Continued: What is Yemen’s Southern Resistance?

the prospects for a unified southern armed Source:

resistance to emerge seem as good as ever. ‫المقاومة الشعبية الجنوبية تعقد اجتماعا ً هاما ً وتشكل مجلس القوة الشعبية الجنوبية‬
Were the peaceful southern autonomy “The southern popular resistance holds an important meeting and forms the Council
movement (“Hirak”) to fully transform for the Southern Popular Force,” Aden al-Ghad. 9 April 2015. http://adenalghad.net/
news/157829
into an armed resistance, as the third
accompanying article claims has already
happened, these prospects would look even … leaders of the Southern Resistance Movement called for a meeting on 5 April 2015
better. The Saudi-led “Decisive Storm” where they discussed recent developments in the south in general and Aden in particular.
campaign is thus betting on a force whose Several measures aimed at finding an organizational structure were taken
ultimate goal is reasserting the independence
of South Yemen by force. Add the irony of a
former Soviet ally being reborn with Saudi Source:
help to the growing list of strange and ‫ الحراك ينتقل إلى المقاومة المسلحة لتحرير الجنوب والحوثي يقود اليمن إلى ثالث دويالت‬:‫مسارات‬
dangerous developments in the region. “Masarat: the Hirak is turning into an armed resistance to liberate the south as the
End OE Watch Commentary (Winter) Huthis push Yemen to become three small states,” Aden al-Ghad. 28 March 2015. http://
adenalghad.net/news/156609/

According to the Masarat Center for Strategy and Media, all indications in the south
point to the transformation of the Southern Movement from peaceful struggle to armed
rebellion…

OE Watch May 2015 43

AFRICA Top

A One Sided Wall: 13 April 2015

Kenya Builds Security Barrier Somalia Doesn’t Want

“Director of Immigration Services Gordon Kihalangwa on Monday said the wall will demarcate the
Kenya-Somalia border besides securing the country from al Shabaab militants.”

OE Watch Commentary: Kenya, which Source: “Construction of Kenya-Somalia Security Wall Begins,” The Star (Kenya), 13
is still reeling from the recent attack by al- April 2015, http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/construction-kenya-somalia-security-wall-
Shabaab on Garissa University, wants a wall begins#sthash.rgFsbFrq.dpbs
to protect it from the Somalia-based terrorists.
Somalia, feeling it is making progress against
Construction of the Kenya-Somalia security wall has started.
al-Shabaab, does not want a wall and is
disappointed it was not consulted with regards [The wall] would not bar cross border movements, as there would be designated exit
to this project. However, as the following article and entry points.
relates, despite Somali objections, construction
“We will ensure that our borders are secure by preventing illegal immigrants and
of the barrier has begun.
proliferation of small arms into the country, “ he said.
To be fair, the wall, which will stretch “The project is fully funded by the government with relevant government departments
approximately 700 kilometers, has received
chipping in, the ministry of transport, the National Youth Service and KDF have given in
criticism from some Kenyans as well, who have
their support to this noble task, “ he said.
described it as an exercise in futility. Though
the wall presupposes al-Shabaab is mostly The team will clear structures constructed along the area designated for the wall,
an external threat which can be kept out of as much of the land at the border has been encroached by both Somali and Kenyan
Kenya, many believe the organization is actively communities.
recruiting disaffected and disenfranchised
Kenyan youths, thus making the barrier’s prime
objective moot. Additionally, some question how
Kenya hopes the wall it is building on its border with Somalia will protect it from attacks, such as the recent
effective a physical barrier would actually be one on Garissa University, by al-Shabaab. Here, a student who hid in a wardrobe during that attack is
in keeping al-Shabaab from launching cross- escorted by a soldier.
border attacks. Source: http://hopeforafricaonline.com/2015/04/04/female-student-emerges-from-wardrobe-2-days-after-
attack/
The wall itself will be an engineering feat.
According to an April 2015 report by IRIN,
there will be obstacles, trenches, closed
circuit television, and other impediments to
crossing the traditionally porous border. As the
accompanying article mentions, The National
Youth Service will help construct this fully
funded project.

Even as construction begins the debate

continues over whether this is a wise project
to fund or if the money should be directed
elsewhere, perhaps to more border police
or efforts to prevent radicalization of their
own youth. For now it appears the pro-wall
construction forces are in charge, and whether
the wall ultimately proves to be an impregnable
barrier offering protection from future terrorist
attacks or another Maginot Line that provides
a false sense of security will have to wait to be
seen. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman)

OE Watch May 2015 44

AFRICA Top

Underlying Causes of Xenophobic Attacks in South Africa 15 April 2015

“Despite the solidarity and comradeship between black South Africans and the rest of the people of sub-
Saharan Africa during the decades of struggle against apartheid and for liberation, foreigners, mostly
of African descent, are being subjected to brutality and detention.”

OE Watch Commentary: There have long

Source: Ozias Tungwarara, “Xenophobia in South Africa: A lack of visionary
been tensions between South Africans and
leadership,” Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa (Johannesburg), 15 Apr 2015,
immigrants from neighboring countries who
http://www.osisa.org/general/blog/xenophobia-south-africa-lack-visionary-leadership
have come to South Africa in search of work.
However, recently there has been a sharp
rise in xenophobic attacks against these A few days later African foreigners were fleeing their homes seeking refuge at police
foreigners, with the death toll at the time of stations and other places of safety. They were under onslaught from their South African
this writing standing at six, while many more neighbors.
are fearful and either leaving South Africa
or contemplating doing so. Though there are Recently King Godwill Zwelithini, King of the Zulu nation said “We are requesting
many commentaries discussing what factors those who come from outside to please go back to their countries”. He made these
are driving this xenophobia, the accompanying remarks while addressing community members in the province against a backdrop of
article puts the blame squarely on a lack of rising tensions between foreigners and locals. ..The Police Minister implicitly endorsed
visionary leaders, along with a worsening the King’s remarks when he said that the King had only been referring to undocumented
economic situation. foreigners and that it was true that most crimes were committed by illegal immigrants.
The irony of South African blacks who were In 2000 a major scenario exercise: “Southern Africa in 2020” painted a grim picture
oppressed under apartheid now oppressing of the southern Africa region in two decades, suggesting that only a new generation of
black, non-native South Africans has not been
visionary and democratic leaders as well as a spurt in economic growth would reverse
lost in the African press. The outcry has been
the region’s fortunes. We have had very little if any of both these drivers needed for
both critical and sustained. Some African
countries, such as Zimbabwe, are evacuating a positive scenario in the sub-region. If anything we are seeing much more of the
their citizens, while others, such as Malawi, are other scenarios that would be driven by: violent conflict; corruption and patronage;
pushing for a boycott of South African goods. authoritarian rule; uncontrolled globalization; ineffectual governance; extreme poverty
and inequality; cyclical droughts; economic mismanagement; and rapid rural to urban
Though it is difficult to say how all this will
migration.
play out, five scenarios created by the Institute
for Global Dialogue for an exercise in 2000
attempted to peer two decades into the future of southern Africa. Of the five, only one, “a regional renaissance under visionary leadership,”
offered a positive outlook, with the other four painting a grim picture. A significant portion of that regional renaissance was supposed to
be economic development, much of it fueled by cross-border trade among cooperating nations. However, the economic slowdown that has
plagued much of the rest of the world has also struck southern Africa, and the powerful economic engines that would help lift large numbers
of people in the region out of poverty have, while not completely shut down, periodically sputtered. Though not an excuse for xenophobia,
the lack of jobs aggravates the situation, as many people in countries bordering South Africa migrate across for what they perceive are
brighter prospects in their wealthier neighbor, and South Africans, with their own economic problems, find themselves competing for jobs with
increasing numbers of foreigners.

The call from other countries is for South Africa’s leaders to rise to the occasion and put an end to the xenophobia that is increasingly
plaguing parts of South African society. Coupled with the implementation of economic policies that promote growth, especially for the poorest
segments of the population, it is hoped the renaissance envisioned by the Institute for Global Dialogue will take hold in this region of vast
potential. For now, however, the pictures in the newspapers are of frightened foreigners fearing for their lives as South Africa struggles to
contain the violence. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman)

OE Watch May 2015 45

AFRICA Top

Fragile Hope for a Fragile Peace: Central African Republic 8 April 2015

“President Kenyatta [of Kenya] pointed out that the signing of the peace agreements was a first step and
there are still many issues that have to be tackled for the stability of CAR.”

OE Watch Commentary: There is good

Source: Jibril Adan, “Central Africa Republic groups sign ceasefire pact in Nairobi ,”
news for the Central African Republic (CAR).
Capital News (Kenya), 8 April 2015, http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2015/04/central-
As the accompanying article relates, peace africa-republic-groups-sign-ceasefire-pact-in-nairobi/
agreements between two warring parties, the
Christian militia, known as “anti-balaka (anti-
machete),” and the Muslim fighters of what Warring groups in the Central Africa Republic
was once Séléka, have been signed. Should on Wednesday signed a peace agreement to stop
the peace hold, it could help open up the CAR, hostilities and open a new chapter of political
one of the world’s poorest countries despite stability in their country.
the presence of enormous mineral deposits, to
significant investment and development. President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President
William Ruto witnessed the signing of two
The history of the CAR is replete with
agreements between Anti-Balaka led by Joachim
numerous struggles, with the overthrow of
Kokate and Ex-Seleka led by former president Michel
President Francois Bozize in early 2013 being
one of the most significant. The president, a Djotodia.
Christian, was forced to flee when a coalition The two agreements, Nairobi Agreement on
of Muslim groups known as Séléka, angry Ceasefire and Cessation of Hostilities between Ex-
with the Bozize government for not honoring a Seleka and Anti-Balaka, and the Nairobi Engagement
previous agreement, seized the capital. Michel
Declaration Adherence to the Transition Roadmap
Djotodia was then installed as the nation’s first
in Central African Republic, were signed at State Keynan President, Uhuru Muigai
Muslim president, but, despite his dissolving Kenyatta.
Séléka, many of its former members went on a House, Nairobi. Source: Wikipedia
rampage, committing rape, murder, and other “The spirit of brotherhood which you have
crimes. In response, Christian “anti-balaka” developed here in Nairobi should continue even to
vigilante groups formed and began hunting Bangui forum,” the President added.
down Muslims in revenge attacks.
The President said rapid and substantial progress has been made towards a political
Unfortunately, as another paper reported, settlement which will restore CAR into the community of peaceful states.
those who have signed these peace agreements
may not have full control over all the elements They said their country has been in political turmoil for the last 20 years pointing out
of their respective groups. Thus, the possibility that the commitment by the Kenya leadership will definitely bear positive results.
exists that fighting could continue by rogue Some 5,600 African Union peacekeepers and about 2,000 French soldiers are deployed
members, sabotaging a recent series of peace in the country.
agreements that have been difficult to come
by. The absence of the CAR’s transitional
government at the signing, as well as problems implementing previous agreements, has also helped damper some of the optimism.

Still, as the accompanying article relates, there is hope that these latest agreements, brokered by Kenya, may last. The CAR has been in
political turmoil for about two decades, and it is possible that the warring parties may finally realize that, as the Kenyan president related at
the signing ceremony, while there are still many obstacles to peace, the maturity exhibited by the two parties coming together bodes well for
the future. End OE Watch Commentary (Feldman)

OE Watch May 2015 46

AFRICA Top

New Nigerian President Buhari and the War on Boko Haram 6 April 2015

“Buhari has called Nigeria’s reliance on neighbouring armies a disgrace and has vowed to restore the
territorial integrity of Africa’s most populous nation.”

OE Watch Commentary: On 1 April 2015 Nigeria’s Independent National

Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that Muhammed Buhari defeated
incumbent Goodluck Jonathan in the country’s presidential election. Two of
Buhari’s core campaign promises were to eliminate the corruption that was
draining the resources needed to combat Boko Haram and to decisively defeat
Boko Haram on the battlefield. A former military ruler of Nigeria in the 1980s
and a northerner Muslim from the region where Boko Haram operates, Buhari,
according to the Nigerian electorate and the country’s neighbors, has the best
credentials to fulfill his campaign pledges.

An article for Nigerianeye written on 6 April discussed the perspectives of

Niger and Chad on Buhari’s victory. These two countries, which have suffered
from Boko Haram attacks and have joined a multinational coalition to combat
Boko Haram in Nigeria, welcomed Buhari’s victory. The Nigerien and Chadian
armies have been dissatisfied with the Nigerian army’s performance over the Muhammed Buhari intends to rebuild trust with international
past few years and criticized the Nigerian army for not fighting alongside their partners, such as the US (pictured here from a training in 2009),
armies and re-occupying towns when Nigerien and Chadian forces expelled in order to defeat Boko Haram. Source: http://www.africom.mil/
newsroom/photo/1455/US-AFRICOM-Photo
the Boko Haram militants. Niger and Chad expect that Buhari’s leadership will
bring change to the Nigerian military and reverse
the situation of the past few years in which Boko Source: ““Chad, Niger Hope for Fresh Start with Buhari,”Nigerianeye.com, 6 April
Haram controlled territory in Nigeria internally 2015.
and established an alliance with the Islamic State
externally.
Chad, Niger hope for fresh start with Buhari
Buhari has vowed to end what he calls the
disgrace of allowing foreign troops on Nigerian soil Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency in northern Nigeria, and incumbent President
by relying solely on the Nigerian military to quell the Goodluck Jonathan’s failure to decisively counter the threat, were a key issue in the
unrest. The article suggests, however, that one of the Nigerian election. Gains by the Islamist movement [Boko Haram], which is seeking
main challenges that Buhari will have to overcome to carve a caliphate out of Nigeria’s northeast, even forced a poll delay as a regional
is mistrust between Nigeria and its neighbors. force launched an offensive to drive them back. But it has been Chad’s battle-
The inability of these countries to coordinate their hardened troops, and not Nigeria’s, that have led in the offensive, expelling Boko
efforts, at least in terms of border security, could
Haram from the major towns in the north in just a matter of weeks.
undermine the counterinsurgency effort and allow
Boko Haram to retreat into Nigeria’s borderlands Buhari has called Nigeria’s reliance on neighbouring armies a disgrace and has
to regroup for counterattacks in the future. As such, vowed to restore the territorial integrity of Africa’s most populous nation. There is
Buhari will have to demonstrate that he has not still work to be done. But they have also struggled to overcome distrust between
only the leadership capability to defeat Boko Haram armies that have not always fought on the same side.
at home, but also the diplomatic tact to play a
leading role in the multinational coalition’s strategy
to counter Boko Haram’s efforts if the militants
disperse into the border region.
End OE Watch Commentary (Zenn)

OE Watch May 2015 47

LATIN AMERICA Top

FARC is Still Considered a Terrorist Organization 15 April 2015

“Cuba rejects and condemns all acts of terrorism in all its forms…”

OE Watch Commentary: Spanish-language Source: Radio Caracol, “Sectores políticos piden reactivar bombardeos contra las Farc
media observed that not long after Colombian (Political sectors ask for the reactivation of (aerial) bombings against the FARC),
President Santos put a moratorium on combat Radio Caracol, 15 April 2015, http://www.caracol.com.co/noticias/actualidad/sectores-
air operations against FARC guerrilla units, politicos-piden-reactivar-bombardeos-contra-las-farc/20150415/nota/2718737.aspx
a FARC unit ambushed and killed eleven
Colombian Army soldiers during what was
“Congresswoman Claudia López, of the Green Alliance (political caucus) stated,
supposed to be the FARC’s unilateral ceasefire.
‘if the FARC violates the unilateral ceasefire and ambushes our soldiers point blank,
A firestorm of negative Colombian press, as
well as some discomforting protests, followed the government should reactivate bombing against them.’ Iván Cepeda, co-president
when it was alleged that air support requested of the Congressional Peace Commision, said, ‘We hope they give us explanations of
during the action by the besieged soldiers had what happened and that they give us elements for better understanding this lamentable
perhaps been denied by higher-ups. Even some event.’…”
left-leaning Colombian political voices called
for a reactivation of government combat air
operations against the FARC, a response the Source: El Tiempo, “Cuba considera ‘justa’ la decisión de Obama” (Cuba considers
Colombian president indeed took. For its part, Obama’s decision to be just), Eltiempo.com, 14 April 2015, http://www.eltiempo.com/
the FARC, from the peace negotiations venue mundo/latinoamerica/negociaciones-entre-ee-uu-y-cuba/15571675
in Havana, dismissed the ambush as an act
of self-defense and termed prudent (sensata)
“‘The Government of Cuba recognizes the just decision taken by the President of
the American administration’s decision to
take Cuba off the US State Department’s list the United States of eliminating Cuba from a list on which it should never have been
of state supporters of terrorism. In the same included.’ …As the Cuban government has reiterated on multiple occasions, Cuba
breath it floated the inverse logic that the FARC rejects and condemns all acts of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, as well
was therefore not terrorist. Most Colombian as whatever action that has as its object furthering, supporting financing or concealing
commenters categorize the FARC as a terrorist terrorist acts,’ the declaration added, which was read on the television news….”
organization, and most regional commenters,
whether or not they tend to support the FARC
and whether or not they would wish to see
improved US-Cuban relations, consider the
Cuban government to be a stalwart historical,
continuing ally and ongoing material supporter
of the FARC. End OE Watch Commentary
(Demarest)

OE Watch May 2015 48

LATIN AMERICA Top

Might Evo Morales’ Bolivarianism be Vulnerable? 30 March 2015

“…subnational elections (counties and autonomous areas) were full of good news for the Bolivian opposition.”

OE Watch Commentary: What may have

seemed like an electoral lock owned by a
socialist incumbent has brought back into view
what many observers of Bolivia have known
-- that the country has a politically varied and
sophisticated electorate capable of surprises.
Combined with what seems to be an historic
tendency in Latin America to experience broad-
arc ideological pendulum swings, perhaps
news from the recent Bolivian elections is
ominous for the future prospects of the Forum
of Sao Paulo and the political parties and
programs which currently dominate many of the
hemisphere’s governments. Bolivian President Evo Morales in 2008. Source: Wikipedia

In local elections, President Evo Morales’

Movement To Socialism (MAS) political party Source: Fernando Molina, “La oposición boliviana gana espacios clave en las
lost a number of seats. The Forum of Sao elecciones regionales” (Bolivian opposition gains key seats in regional elections),
Paulo, an umbrella organization comprising Elpais.com, 30 March, 2015, http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/03/30/
actualidad/1427673912_141810.html
and coordinating the region’s left-socialist and
communist political parties, including MAS,
has faced only weak organized opposition “This Sunday’s (the 29th of March) subnational elections (counties and autonomous
across the region since the Forum was founded
areas) were full of good news for the Bolivian opposition, not long after they were largely
in the early 1990s. It may be misleading to
beaten by Evo Morales in the presidential elections last October. Various opposition
label what little opposition to the Forum
has existed as “right-wing,” even while it is parties snatched mayor seats from the Movement To Socialism (MAS) in El Alto and
habitually tagged as such by the radical left. Cochabamba, as well as the governorships of La Paz and Tarija, which to this point had
Intellectual leadership of opposition to the been under oficialist control….”
Forum, and perhaps an impeller/accelerator of
the pendulum’s swing away from socialism, is
more of an anti-statist conglomerate of classical Source: Periodismo sin Fronteras, “Compromiso de Cochabamba: Antítesis del Foro
liberals, libertarians and conservatives (some of de São Paulo” (Commitment of Cochabamba: Antithesis of the Forum of Sao Paulo),
the latter reasonably deserving categorization Periodismo sin Fronteras, 18 March 2015, http://www.periodismosinfronteras.org/
compromisso-cochabamba.html
as “rightist” under traditional Spanish political
protocol). The ideological and political center
of gravity for this counter-socialism movement “We, classic liberals, supporters of limited government, free markets and private
is not easy to pinpoint, but one node in that property, firmly commit ourselves to end the political and cultural hegemony of the
opposition movement is, logically, named after
Forum of Sao Paulo in the region….We commit ourselves to introduce an increasing
a geographical, social and ideological hinge
number of classic liberals in the parliaments of each country, in order to debate bad
city in Bolivia -- Cochabamba. End OE Watch
Commentary (Demarest) laws, and to form parliamentary blocks in order to remove them and to further reforms.
This is our Political Plan. Thus, the national congress or assembly is the focus and the
principal target of our political action. For now, participation in regional and county
government and executive power are secondary objectives, subject to the first….”

OE Watch May 2015 49

LATIN AMERICA Top

People Vote with Their Feet if They Can 17 April 2015

“in the last ten years more than 1,500,000 persons have left Venezuela …”

OE Watch Commentary: A strategic effect of Source: Mimi Arriaga, “Masiva migración de venezolanos en Colombia gana espacios en
bolivarian socialism in northern South America la economía de ese país (Massive migration of Venezuelans in Colombia gains space in
has been significant net out-migration from the economy of that country), Semana, 9 April 2015, http://www.losreportesdelichi.com/
Venezuela. Within the body of that pronounced masiva-migracion-de-venezolanos-en-colombia-gana-espacios-en-la-economia-de-ese-
pais/
outflow is a significant slice of the most highly
educated and technically qualified. Colombia’s
oil industry, for instance, has been greatly “The presence of the Venezuelans in Colombia, and in particular in Bogota, has stopped
advanced by the presence in Colombia of being a simple curiosity to become a phenomenon….it is one of the few cases of high
Venezuelan experts, while, concomitantly, impact that migration that Colombia has had in in two centuries of republican history….
Venezuela’s oil production has deteriorated.
The exodus had a first major breakpoint starting in 2005, when the petroleum experts
One can suppose that at least a few Colombians
who had been mercilessly fired in mass by PDVSA (Venezuela’s national oil company)
notice how much so many capable persons
choose to not stay in places like Venezuela and began to arrive. But really, the high point has been 2011, since which every business day
Cuba (otherwise beautiful lands) so long as DAS (office administering Colombian immigration) is issuing and average of 46 resident
those places are being mismanaged as socialist work permits to Venezuelans to live in Colombia….”
dictatorships. One can understand that the
Bolivarians would prefer it if Colombia could
be made to adopt the same form of centrally Source: Jose Guerra, “La emigración venezolana” (The Venezuelan Migration),
directed political and economic system that Noticierodigital.com, 29 March 2015, http://www.noticierodigital.com/2015/03/la-
emigracion-venezolana/
Bolivarians have been implementing in
Venezuela, perhaps thereby greatly reducing
differentials in exchange, commodity and “…it is (now) the Venezuelans who are emigrating en masse, toward several destinations
inflation rates between the two countries.
on all the continents. It may be that Professor Ivan De La Vega of Simon Bolivar
Such a revolution could perhaps staunch
University has dedicated the most time studying and quantifying this relatively new
the outflow of talented citizens (at least from
Venezuela to Colombia) that the more attractive phenomenon. It is worth mentioning that every time a government announces that
economy of Colombia currently presents to it is going to apply a socialist system, people always leave frightened….According
educated, talented and ambitious Venezuelans. to Professor De la Vega, in the last ten years more than 1,500,000 persons have left
The propositions made by the FARC for its Venezuela….The case of the (Venezuelan) universities is pathetic. Thousands of
participation in and influence over Colombian professors have marched off to other countries where their work and qualifications are
social and economic organization (especially more highly prized, because remunerations in Venezuela don’t even compete with those
along the border regions with Venezuela) are
in Haiti, when valued in dollars…. ”
welcomed by Bolivarians generally. End OE
Watch Commentary (Demarest)
Source: DolarToday, “¿POR QUÉ SERÁ? Venezuela: La peor economía de América
Latina (cifras del FMI)” (WHY IS IT? Venezuela: The worst economy in Latin America),
DolarToday.com, 17 April 2015, https://dolartoday.com/por-que-sera-venezuela-fue-por-
mucho-la-peor-economia-de-america-latina-cifras-del-fondo-monetario-internacional/

“…For 2015, only Venezuela with 96.8% and Argentina with 18.6% will have inflation
rates in double digits in South America, the rest of the countries’ inflation less than 10%,
Uruguay leading this group with 9.7%. As far as growth is concerned, the IMF expects
a severe contraction of -7% for the country, accompanied by Brazil (-1.0) and Argentina
(-0.3). The other countries of America will grow…The unemployment numbers in
Venezuela will increase from 8.0% for 2014 to 12.8% in 2015, and, according to IMF
projections, will reach as much as 16.1%, double what was seen in 2014. )These are)
truly frightening and disappointing numbers, keeping in mind that Venezuela will be the
only country in America with an unemployment rate higher than 10%....”

OE Watch May 2015 50

LATIN AMERICA Top

Latin America as an Emerging Cyber-Crime Threat Region 1 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Latin America Source: “Latinoamérica enfrentará un mayor número de ciberataques en 2015,” [Latin
is a new and emerging cyber-crime threat America Will Experience an Uptick in Cyber-Attacks in 2015] Excelsior. Accessed on 1
region with capable cyber criminals who are April 2015 from http://www.dineroenimagen.com/2015-01-04/48711
now producing their own malware. In fact,
according to this source, reported cyber attacks Strategic sectors that will be most vulnerable to cyber-attacks in Latin America
increased anywhere from 8 to 40 percent last
during 2015 are chemical, manufacturing, and mining. The vast majority of anticipated
year in Latin America and the Caribbean,
cyber-crimes will be conducted for financial, political, and social gain. Comparing past
depending on the country.
cyber-attacks with those seen in recent months, Latin American hackers are using more
Still, these numbers are not completely sophisticated methods to steal intellectual property and private information. An example
accurate and may actually be much higher
of this is that in 2013, cyber security companies reported that hackers were developing
for two reasons. First, not all governments
their own malware and programs to better conduct cyber-attacks in Latin American
want to report cyber-crime issues even if they
know the threat is present. Second, not all countries including México, Guatemala, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Argentina and
governments realize attacks are occurring in Brasil.
the first place, as in Latin America new Internet Attacks on critical infrastructure in the region are also on the rise. This is likely
hacking schemes are constantly evolving because countries such as Argentina, Peru, and Colombia use Internet-facing industrial
as the government, new Internet users and
control systems which are not always password protected. Additionally, it is not
businesses expand the amount of work they
uncommon for these same systems to run patched or out-of-date software. As for
conduct in a cyber-setting. Other factors that
are perpetrating cyber-crime in Latin America financial systems, hackers are using sophisticated Trojan attacks to corrupt computers
include low risk of prosecution, quick profit, and steal data. In recent years, banks in Latin America have lost an upwards of $(USD)
and an economy where salaries do not meet the 93 million to cyber-crime and are likely to lose more in coming years if ample protective
needs for day-to-day living expenses. End OE measures are not taken.
Watch Commentary (Fiegel)

OE Watch May 2015 51

LATIN AMERICA Top

Brazil is Home to the Largest Number 18 August 2014

of Cyber-Attacks in Latin America

OE Watch Commentary: This source reports Source: “Brasil es el país con más ciberataques en América Latina,” [Brazil is Home
that within Latin America, Brazil is the target to the Largest Number of Cyber-Attacks in Latin America]. Accessed on 7 March,
of an estimated 33-43% of all cybercrimes. In 2015 from http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/tecnologia/internet/brasil-lidera-en-
2013 malware attacks alone exceeded 500,000, latinoamerica-como-el-pais-mas-ex.aspx
which is not surprising, considering that more
Trojan malware has been detected in Brazil
In 2014, Brazil experienced the highest number of malware attacks in Latin America
than in any other country in the world. This
and fell victim to an estimated 33-43% of all cybercrimes in the region. These attacks
may be because Brazil-based cyber criminals
have been very successful in copying malicious have been attributed to opportunistic hackers using phishing tactics, malware, and home
software programs used in Eastern Europe to routers to steal banking passwords and large amounts of cash from businesses. During
steal bank information, as this source points the World Cup alone, 10.9 million registered malware attacks were detected. These
out. Furthermore, they have learned from same attacks affected an estimated 30% of all internet users in the country during that
the mistakes of their counterparts, which has time. As for businesses in Brazil, billions of dollars are being stolen yearly as companies
resulted in the creation of a rapidly evolving fall victim to digital thieves; many of which have been identified as employees of the
malware enterprise.
business they are stealing from. In 2011 alone, 32% of all businesses in Brazil were
In 2014 Brazil became a key financial target financially affected by some type of cyber-crime.
as the host of the World Cup, during which
Brazil has also fallen victim to recent ongoing attacks which lure home internet users
time hackers worked feverishly to steal banking
into visiting malicious websites that attempt to silently change the Domain Name Setting
information from thousands of unsuspecting
Internet users. One technique used to do this (DNS) of their home internet routers. If successful, routers are simply reconfigured to
was to silently change the domain name setting use rogue DNS servers which redirect the user to phishing pages when they open their
of internet routers in home and business banking websites. Investigations regarding widespread theft of bank information via
settings. End OE Watch Commentary: home computers revealed that internet service providers in Brazil commonly lend their
(Fiegel) customers old and vulnerable network devices which further enables cyber-criminals
to reconfigure servers. Additionally, ANATEL, Brazil’s national telecommunications
agency is known to verify the functionality of its rented equipment but has not yet
addressed security concerns that enable criminals to easily change DNS settings.

OE Watch May 2015 52

LATIN AMERICA Top

Neologisms Born from Narco Culture in Mexico 13 March 2015

Source: “Narco Lenguage,” [Narco Language)] Blog del Narco. Accessed on February 28, 2014 from http://www.elblogdelnarco.
org/2015/01/el-narco-lenguaje.html

How does one describe horrific acts of violence with a specific word when it does not exist? In
OE Watch Commentary: In Mexico
the case of Mexican drug cartels, they have solved the problem by creating an in-depth glossary
narco culture is evident in mainstream
of neologisms specifically tailored to represent gruesome acts carried out by cartel operators.
media, music, clothing, and even
language. It seems that almost daily, In fact, these words have become so popular that they are used by society and main stream
narcos coin neologisms, which some media sources. Some claim that these neologisms take away from the seriousness of the actual
claim serve to anesthetize the public crimes while others claim the words serve to make horrific actions more manageable. Whatever
and make escalating violence seem the reasons, a new working glossary containing dozens of narco specific words is evolving as
routine. Take for example the narco evidenced by the entries below.
word “levanton.” This word literally
means “pick-up,” but it is well known
that in the narco world it refers to a Words that Begin with a “Narco” Prefix:
kidnapping. As noted in this source,
Some of the most common narco words actually use narco as their prefix. The placement
referring to a kidnapping as a levanton
of narco before the actual word is used to describe language that already exists in day-to-day
somehow makes it seem less violent,
as the word can be easily used in a vocabulary but specifies that the noun is somehow associated with cartel related activity. Take
nonviolent context. the followings words as examples:

According to this source, a second Narco-corrido: songs with content that may refer to specific events and dates regarding drug
reason narco neologisms are being related violence, extortion, or murder. These songs may also be used to praise/glorify a specific
used with increased frequency is drug cartel or leader.
because they may make a specific Narco-manta: refers to a missive that is generally handwritten on a large piece of white cloth
event more manageable. In the case of
and hung in public places for intimidation purposes. These messages are generally directed to
Ciudad Juarez, where one of Mexico’s
rival drug cartels or authorities. Narco-mantas were first made popular by Los Zetas in 2008.
most intense drug battles was waged
from 2009-2011, residents commonly Today, they are used by virtually every cartel in Mexico.
referred to victims of the drug war Narco-fosa: refers to a common grave used to bury multiple victims killed at the hands of drug
as “muertitos” which translates to traffickers. In recent years, narco-fosas containing hundreds of bodies have been found in states
“the little dead ones.” Raul Avila, a including Coahuila, Tamaulipas, and Nuevo Leon.
linguistics professor at the University
of Mexico, further explains that narco Narco fiesta: refers to opulent parties thrown by drug traffickers. It is not uncommon for
neologisms are more like linguistically traffickers the contract popular musicians to play at these events.
sensible euphemisms, as they help
people to explain the harsh realities
Words used to Describe Drug Transport, Storage, Use and Characteristics
around them.
Burrero: a drug mule
In the coming years it is likely that
El clavo: used to describe a location in which drugs are being stored or hidden
new narco words will be coined, but
what is evident now is that narco Formar rayas: refers to cutting cocaine into individual lines
language is becoming more universal.
Doctor de esquina: is used to identify smalltime drug dealers assigned to a specific area within
In fact, the Academic Association of
a city
Spanish Language dictionary now
includes definitions for narco language Hacer lodo: refers to the preparation of heroin
including levanton, plomear, and El pase: a single dose of cocaine
ejecutar (see definitions below).
End OE Watch Commentary (Fiegel) Libreta verde: a pound of marijuana

(continued)

OE Watch May 2015 53

LATIN AMERICA Top

Continued: Neologisms Born from Narco Culture in Mexico

Street Names for Drugs:

Cocaine: el alacrán, la blanca, blanca nieve, harina, nieve, el perico
Heroin: chiva, goma, negra, piedra negra
Marijuana: gallo, pastura, mota, borrego and yesca

Words to Describe Cartel Hierarchy:

Jefe de Jefes: the key drug lord. There is no one higher than this individual in the organization.
Los pesados: pesados literally translates to heavy and in the case of cartel hierarchy, refers to high-ranking cartel leaders.
Los dueños de la plaza: these individuals are assigned to control a specific region or city. A plaza in this sense does not refer to a city center
seen in most Mexican towns, but instead, is a coveted smuggling stronghold where drugs are sold, stored, or transited through.
Sicarios: Individuals hired to work as armed guards for cartels. In other words, they are basically assassins for hire.
Los chacas: usually refers to flashy traffickers from Sinaloa who carry multiple weapons, drive flashy SUVs, and wear expensive clothing.
Halcones: lookouts used by cartels to report on activity in a specific plaza. This may include police and/or military activity or encroachment
by rival cartels in a specific territory. In Mexico, halcones are demographically diverse and may range in age from young children to
grandparents.

Words Used to Describe Traitors:

El soplón: refers to a snitch
Las ratas: refers to a snitch or a traitor
Quienes saben cantar (those who know how to sing is the literal translation): In the cartel world, individuals that sing are informants that
are actually providing information to police, soldiers, or rival cartels.

Words Used to Depict Violent Acts or Describe Weapons:

Cuerno de Chivo (goat horns): used to describe an AK-47. It is named as such because of the curved shape of the magazine. This weapon is
a preferred choice amongst cartels.
Levantones: cartel kidnapping victims who are either tortured for information, held for ransom, or killed for pertaining to a rival cartel and/or
for acts of betrayal.
Plomear: In Spanish, plomo is lead. Hence, the verb plomear literally translates to filling someone with lead in the form of bullets.
Los encajuelados: “Cajuela” translates to the trunk of a car. The prefix “en” translates to in, into, on, onto, or covered. In this context, it is
used as a cartel term to identify the body of a murder victim that is found in the trunk of a car.
Encobijados: Cobija, the word in the middle, is a blanket. Again, the “en” as a prefix changes this word to denote a murder victim who has
been wrapped in a blanket.
Enteipados: Teip, the word in the middle is a mix of Spanglish that refers to “tape.” Adding on the “en” prefix, it refers to a murder victim
who has been wrapped in tape around the mouth, hands, and feet.
Ejecutar: The verb “ejecutar” is used to describe murders committed by organized crime groups. “Asesinar” is used to describe murder not
committed by organized crime groups.

OE Watch May 2015 54

LATIN AMERICA Top

The Sinaloa Cartel Remains Intact 4 January 2015

Following Arrest of Chapo Guzman One Year Ago

OE Watch Commentary: Arrests of key drug Source: “Pese a los reveses, el Cártel de Sinaloa se mantiene incólume,” [Sinaloa Cartel
lords within Mexican cartels have the capacity Maintains Structure despite Setbacks] Blog del Narco. Accessed on March 10, 2015
to disrupt operations in the short term while from http://www.elblogdelnarco.org/2015/01/pese-los-reveses-el-cartel-de-sinaloa.html
a quick reorganization occurs and one leader
takes a definitive step forward. However, this
Mexican news media sources are reporting that the Sinaloa Cartel is intact despite
source reports that following the arrest of
the arrest of Joaquín El Chapo Guzmán nearly 14 months ago. In fact, there has been
Chapo Guzman in February 2014, the transition
of leadership which placed Ismael El Mayo no apparent financial strife, no decrease in operational tempo, and no loss of territory.
Zambada at the helm of the Sinaloa Cartel One security source interviewed reiterated this point by stating: “we have not seen any
was flawless and left no significant gaps. This changes within the operational structure of the Sinaloa Cartel. They are still using the
is likely because the cartel has traditionally same controls and modes of transport as before the arrest of Guzmán. Even the same
operated on a decentralized leadership people are responsible for moving shipments.” This source further indicated that the only
hierarchy, which means that small cells with apparent change since El Chapo’s arrest is that El Mayo Zambada has replaced some
little-to-no knowledge of each other operate
of the former leader’s direct employees with his own in the Nogales Plaza and in the
independently to reduce disruptions in cartel
western sector of the Sonora desert.
activity in the case of arrests. Select news
media sources have further reported that since
the arrest the Sinaloa Cartel has maintained
Source: “Ajustes y división en cártel de Sinaloa,” [Changes and Divisions within the
territory, power, and operational capacities.
Sinaloa Cartel] Zeta Tijuana. Accessed on April 05 2015 from http://zetatijuana.com/
Other sources have released information noticias/reportajez/8817/ajustes-y-division-en-cartel-de-sinaloa
indicating that disputes for control of key
territories among decentralized Sinaloa
Although the Sinaloa Cartel remains strong, this source is reporting territorial rifts
Cartel cells have become apparent in Baja
between independent Sinaloa Cartel cells operated by five separate leaders. These rifts
California Sur, Sonora, and Tijuana. This
information directly contradicts the theory that are allegedly occurring in Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Tijuana and are said to have
decentralization has maintained stability, as it begun shortly after El Chapo’s arrest. They then reached critical points in August 2014
is the leaders of the small cells who are seeking when shootouts occurred between opposing Sinaloa Cartel members in Tijuana and
independence to run their own operations. Baja California Sur. This source further indicated that in Tijuana, the majority of cells
However, when comparing information gleaned are headed by Ismael Zambada Garcia. This is significant because they operate on a
from both open-source channels cited below, the decentralized hierarchical basis leading many to believe that Zambada Garcia will allow
rifts appear to be both regional and transitory.
the fighting to continue and see who prevails.
Furthermore, Sinaloa Cartel operations in
Mexico and abroad have maintained stellar
operational capacities, which indicates that the
overall strength of the cartel is similar to what
it was at the time of El Chapo’s arrest. End OE
Watch Commentary (Fiegel)

OE Watch May 2015 55

LATIN AMERICA Top

Argentine Air Force Considering Gripen Purchase 7 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: According to

www.Defesanet.com.br, Brazil may be well
on its way to its first sale of the Gripen
NG 4th Generation multipurpose fighter to
Argentina. The issue of the possible Gripen
Sale was raised on 7 April during newly
installed Brazilian Defense Minster Jaques
Wagner’s visit to Argentina, his first foreign
visit as defense minister (see excerpt below).
While there, Wagner met with his Argentine
counterpart, Agustin Rossi. Although no
agreement was reached on the sale of the
Gripen, the defense ministers agreed to
formally open negotiations for the eventual
transfer of 24 airframes in a subsection of
the joint-declaration that was signed by both
Pictured from Left to Right: Brazilian Minister of Defense, Jaques Wgner, and his
ministers concluding the meeting. The Gripens Argentinean counterpart, Agustin Rossi.
would presumably replace Argentina’s aging Source: Wikipedia
fleet of Mirages and A-4Rs.

Jane’s Defense reports that the Argentine Air Source: “Brazil and Argentina Sign Democracy and Peace Declaration and Begin
Force currently has an estimated 30 A-4Rs and Gripen NG Sales Negotiation”, http://www.defesanet.com.br/br_ar/noticia/18682/BR-
AR---Brasil-e-Argentina-assinam-a-“Declaracao-pela-Democracia-e-a-Paz”-e-iniciam-
13 Mirage III/Vs in its fleet with an air-force-
negociacoes-para-a-venda-de-cacas-Gripen-NG-/
wide 17 per cent availability rate. Other topics
mentioned in the joint declarations included:

- recommitment to the purchase of 6 KC-390 In his first offical foreign trip as the Minister of Defense, Jaques Wagner highlighted the
aircraft by the Argentine Air Force; choice of Argentina as his choice for his first foreign visit as testament to the charcater
of the strategic alliance with that country (Argentina), and its (the alliance) fundamental
- recommitment to the South Atlantic Peace
and Cooperation Zone, specifically, the to the regional integration in south America. The minister said that it was a political
prohibition of weapons of mass destruction decision that reinforces our (Brazil’s) interest in strengthening the partnership and
in the South Atlantic; cooperation in Defense.
- recommitment to UNASUR’s South
American Defense College.
The Brazilian Air Force originally signed its contract with Swedish Defense Firm SAAB for the purchase of 36 Gripen Airframes (28 single-
seat, 8 dual-seat) in October 2014. The $5.4 billion deal stipulated that the majority of the airframes would be built in Brazil in partnership
with Brazilian aerodefense firms, facilitating technology transfer to the Brazilian defense industry. Delivery of the first aircraft to the
Brazilian Air Force is set to occur in 2019, with the final being delivered in 2024.

Still to be seen is how the Argentine government would potentially pay for the aircraft, given its limited access to international debt markets
since its technical default in July 2014, or British reaction to the potential purchase in light of Argentina’s continued claims on the Falkland
Islands. End OE Watch Commentary (Grilo)

OE Watch May 2015 56

LATIN AMERICA Top

Chinese Vultures Circle as Petrobras Rots 4 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Priced out of Source: “What Does the Chinese Rescue Mean,”4 April 2015. http://www.defesanet.
international credit markets by questions about com.br/brasilchina/noticia/18623/O-que-significa-o-socorro-chines/
its accounting practices due to the Lavo-Jato
scandal, Petrobras has turned to its lender of
last resort: the China Development Bank (CDP). …The short note with which Petrobras announced the completion of the transaction
On 3 April Petrobras finalized a contract for with the CBD - the largest development bank in the world, with assets estimated at $
a $3.5 billion loan from the CDP, the terms of 1.33 trillion at the end of 2013 - describes it as the first “cooperation agreement” to be
which were not publicly released. implemented during 2015 and 2016, “announces the disposal of the parties to” develop
Though these loans have become new business in the future “and justifies the loan as the continuation of a partnership that
commonplace with fellow MERCOSUL strengthens” the synergies between the economies of both countries. But contains no
member Venezuela, this is only the second time information about business conditions or, much less, about the responsibility of Petrobras
that Petrobras has solicited a loan from the counterparts…
CDP. In 2009, when capital was significantly
...Oil Producing Latin-American nation experiences, and those of Petrobbras itself, with
scarcer in the international markets, the CDP
Chinese Financing instiutions do not leave a doubt that the Peking govenrment is always
loaned Petrobras $10 billion. At the time the
loan terms required that Petrobras both use significantly more interested in securing the oil supplies that China needs in order to
the funds to purchase Chinese manufactured maintain its economic growth than it is in the recipients of its loans. The recipient nation
equipment and guarantee China would receive credit ratings only interest Chinese lenders if they are sufficiently poor enough that
an undisclosed quantity of the crude produced Peking can impose loan conditions very favorable to themselves...
at an undisclosed price. Given the restrictive
nature of its last experience with the CDP, this
was not a choice that Petrobras made easily or
even willingly (see excerpt-right). Instead, it was
one of the few options remaining following a
fiscal year that has seen:

- Petrobras unable to release its financial

records from the fourth quarter of 2014
due to international and American
auditors refusal to validate and inability
to substantiate the books put forth by
Petrobras;

- Petrobras’s credit rating downgraded twice

by Standard and Poor’s and remaining at
risk of losing its credit rating all together.

- increasing cost of financing through

traditional sources due to its credit rating
downgrade, as well as anticipated drop in
revenues due to the dramatic drop in oil
prices.

Despite the loan from the CDP and further

loans to be sought on the international market,
it appears that it may still not be sufficient to
keep the state-majority-owned company afloat.
Petrobras currently plans to shed $13 billion
worth of both domestic and international assets
in 2015. End OE Watch Commentary (Grilo)

OE Watch May 2015 57

LATIN AMERICA Top

Political Tension Heightens in Brazil 14 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Dilma Rousseff

may only be six months removed from an
impressive re-election campaign where she
successfully fended off challenges from both
her political right and left, but right now that
may seem like years ago. A nearly surreal
confluence of different scandals, circumstances
outside her control, and political maneuvering
by both her political opponents and middle and
upper class Brazilians have left the Brazilian
president scrambling for allies to help her
hold off increasingly likely impeachment
proceedings.

As the accompanying articles detail,

Operation Lavo-Jato (Car Wash), the first and
most consuming of the scandals, originally
began with the execution of mass arrest
warrants by Brazilian Federal Police on 14 The above still is taken from a web news broadcast discussing a video released by Brazilian Reserve Army
General Paulo Chagas calling for a military intervention to remove the Worker’s Party from power in October
March 2014. Reaching back at least 15 years, 2014. The full video can be viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThWZ6D2YGn8#t=147
state-majority-owned oil company Petrobras
had been bribing Brazilian federal and state
politicians in exchange for overpriced state Source: O Dia article “Brazilian Military Ignoring Calls to Intervene Says Minister of
contracts. Though President Rousseff had been Defense” published 14 April. http://odia.ig.com.br/noticia/brasil/2015-04-14/militares-
brasileiros-ignoram-pedidos-de-intervencao-diz-ministro-da-defesa.html
president of Petrobras’s board of directors
for several of the years (2003-2010) during
which the scheme took place, she was initially …the military is ignoring the requests for a “military intervention” against the
and quickly exonerated of any wrongdoing government that have been heard in the recent protests against President Dilma Rousseff,
by investigators. However, as arrests within
Defense Minister Jaques Wagner affirmed this Tuesday (14April2015). This call has a
her own ruling Partido Trabalhador (Workers
membership “with zero support” in the barracks, Wagner said in remarks to reporters
Party) and the scope of corruption ($22 billion
in questionable contracts and accounting) and given the presence of several generals, after attending the opening of the LAAD
have continued to mount, investigators and Defense & Security conference.
the Brazilian populace alike have become
increasing incredulous of her innocence. The
culmination of the investigation to date was Source: Excerpt from political Op-Ed piece titled “God Save the Queen” originally
published by O Globo on 13 April. http://noblat.oglobo.globo.com/meus-textos/
the 16 April arrest of Worker’s Party national
noticia/2015/04/deus-salve-rainha.html
treasurer Joao Vaccari Neto on corruption
charges excerpt .

Even after this, a new scandal has recently What a sad way to celebrate your first 100 days governing. 6 out of every 10
reared its head and shaken the little confidence Brazilians view Dilma’s administration as “bad” or “terrible”. Almost 6 in 10 believe
the public had left in the administration. now believe that she knew of corruption at Petrobras and did nothing. For 8 in ten,
As pointed out in the accompanying article inflation increased. Unemployment increased for 7 in ten. 2 out of every 3 are open
(Excerpt 3), on 15 April, the Federal Audit to impeachment proceedings against Dilma. The street protests, like yesterdays, are
Court (TCU) found that the Government of supported by 7 of every 10.
Brazil’s practice of using funds from public
banks to artificially inflate the results of the If the election to choose Dilma’s successor (Analyst’s note: Brazilian Presidents are
government’s accounts is a crime of fiscal constitutionally prohibited from serving more than 2 consecutive 4 year terms, but may
responsibility. This latest question, coupled serve an unlimited amount of non-consecutive terms) had occurred last week, Aécio
with the rupture of trust resulting from the Neves would have defeated Lula (Former President Luna da Silva and presumed PT
Lavo-Jato scandal and the austerity measures, nominee for the 2018 elections) 33% to 29%, according to Datafolha’s most recent poll.
has the Brazilian street and rival politicians
smelling blood in the water. (continued)
OE Watch May 2015 58
LATIN AMERICA Top

Continued: Political Turmoil Heightens in Brazil

A 15 March nationwide protest against

the government drew an estimated 1-2
million Brazilians out of their homes and
into the street across more than 200 cities.
Among them, a small but vocal minority
were calling for Dilma’s ouster. A smaller
nationwide protest held 12 April only drew
700,000 Brazilians into the street across
the country, however, the demands for the
The above “screen capture” is of the largest pro-military Intervention
ouster of President Rousseff by impeachment group on Facebook, Intervencao Militar Ja, as of 17 April 2015. As can be
or other means were significantly louder. In seen on the left side of the capture, the page had 23,544 “likes” as of the
fact, as the accompanying article describes, capture date. The banner message translates as: “I refuse to accept being
a slave of the corrupt. I refuse to be governed by bandits. I refuse to allow
so vocal had the calls for “a coup” become Brazil to be turned into a republic of scoundrels.” (Left) Brazilian Minister
that newly minted Minister of Defense Jaques of Defense, Jaques Wgner. Source: Wikipedia
Wagner felt the need to publicly address
the calls and unequivocally state that there
was no support for a military coup within
Source: “Federal Audit Court” Rules Financial Maneuvers Are Crimes” originally
the barracks (Excerpt 1). Unfortunately, at
published in the Folha de Sao Paulo on 15 April, 2015. http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/
least one Brazilian Reserve Army General,
mercado/2015/04/1617121-tribunal-de-contas-da-uniao-aponta-crime-nas-manobras-
General Paulo Chagas, disagrees and released fiscais.shtml
a 6-minute video calling for a military
intervention in the government (Figure 2). His
views have significant support, as a cursory The Plenary of the Federal Audit Court (TCU) unanimously decided that the fiscal
Facebook search revealed at least 20 Facebook maneuvers conducted by the Ministry of the Treasury with accounts in federal public
groups calling for a military ouster of the banks constitute a crime of responsibility.
Dilma Regime. The largest of these groups has
in excess of 26,000 members (Figure 3). 17 government officials will have 30 days in order to present explanations to the Federal
Audit Court for the irregularities cited in the case…
Although a military coup is not likely in
this instance, political turmoil is heightened.
With Rousseff’s low approval ratings, there
Source: “White Coup” originally published in the Folha de Sao Paulo on 18 April,
is talk of bringing former President Luna da
2015. Original article can be found here: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/
Silva (her predecessor and mentor) into the andresinger/2015/04/1618253-golpe-branco.shtml#_=_
administration in some capacity just to restore
credibility. However, Aecio Neves, PSDB
(Brazilian Social Democrat Party) opposition On the eve of the March 15 protests, the President of the PSDB, Aécio Neves, assumed
leader and principal rival in the 2014 election, the Democratic position. He made it clear that impeachment was not on the Party’s
announced on 15 April that he is now open agenda. A month later, without any reasonable justification, he changed position and
to considering Rousseff’s impeachment
became a coup supporter [sic.]. The objective appears clear: block the government, deny
and announced his intention to explore the
it even a breath, and eventually cause its fall.
possibility of building a coalition among
other parties to execute it (Excerpt 4). Neves, … On Thursday, April 16, according to the reporters Dimmi Amora and Valdo
however, may just be reacting to the Brazilian Cruz, Aecio suggested there is now a third point for which the PSDB to advocate for
street, as a 12 April Datafolha poll reports impeachment on. If it is proved that the President participated in the supposed fiscal
that 63% of Brazilians surveyed now support maneuvers impugned by the Federal Audit Court relative to the 2014 exercise, the party
impeachment (Excerpt 2). End OE Watch
would enter the request to open the impeachment process, whether Eduardo Cunha
Commentary (Grilo)
accepts it or not…

OE Watch May 2015 59

INDO-PACIFIC ASIA Top

India Evacuates Citizens from Yemen 16 April 2015

– Indicators of Operational Strengths and Weakness

“PM Twitter – ‘Salute the services of our civilian & defence officials...Continue your efforts!’”

OE Watch Commentary: During the most Source: ZeeNews, “PM Modi lauds Yemen evacuation efforts, says this shows India’s
recent meltdown of civil security in Yemen, willingness to serve its people,” April 6, 2015 http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/pm-
the Government of India responded with air modi-lauds-yemen-evacuation-efforts-says-this-shows-indias-willingness-to-serve-its-
and naval assets to evacuate Indian citizens people_1574168.html
working and living there. From 3-10 April 2015
the Indian Government coordinated commercial
.... On microblogging website Twitter, PM wrote: “Salute the services of our civilian &
and military aircraft to evacuate some 2700
defence officials & organisations in helping evacuate our citizens from Yemen. Continue
people form Sanai, Yemen. The Indian Navy
also participated in the humanitarian effort your efforts!”
through the port of Aden and Al Hudaydah. The In another tweet PM congratulated the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian Navy,
quick response into an unsecure and war-torn Indian Air Force, Air India, Shipping, Railways & State governments for pitching into
area points to Indian executive and military
the rescue operations.
capabilities not often recognized in the West.
....“I am also glad that India has rescued several non-Indian citizens from Yemen,” PM
Another interesting development is how further tweeted.
both India’s President Modi and the external
affairs minister used personal Twitter accounts Meanwhile, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said, “Almost all Indians to be
to praise the efforts of the military and civil evacuated from Yemen by this evening.”
airlines during the operation. A fast moving He also praised the Indian Navy for their commendable job in the rescue operations.
and sensitive operation was communicated
via social media in real time by the central “The Indian Navy has been doing a great job. Almost 3,000 Indians stranded in Yemen
government. Reports from ZeeNews chronicle have been evacuated. The Indian nationals, including some foreigners, have been shifted
these events tweet by tweet. without injury or a single loss of life,” he said.

Air operations included several landings of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had on Sunday assured that all Indian
Air India commercial aircraft into the uncertain nationals would be evacuated from Yemen.
conditions of the Yemen airports. The open “We shall evacuate all Indian nationals from Yemen. Nobody will be left behind for
sharing of operational information by officials want of travel documents,” she tweeted.
on Tweeter is noteworthy. The spokesman for
the External Affairs Ministry shares detailed The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had yesterday confirmed that 488 Indians had
timings, locations, and identity of units been evacuated from Sana`a, while a further 182 were rescued from coastal town Ash
involved. Another ZeeNews article provides Shihr.
a gripping account of civilian leadership in a
This followed the rescue of 439 Indians by the Indian Navy`s guided-missile destroyer
military-supported evacuation. The Tweet, “...
INS Mumbai from Yemen`s port city Aden earlier on Saturday.
evacuation by Naval Ships from Al Hudaydah
port for remaining nationals over next two days,
Embassy in Sana’a will need to shut operations
and relocate its personnel,” must have given the “After Indians stranded in Sana’a are evacuated the embassy will be shut”
ship commanders and embassy security some
pause as to the broadcast of their intentions and
requirements. Source: ZeeNews, “India concludes evacuations from Yemen, rescues over 5600
people: MEA,” April 10, 2015 http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/india-concludes-
Indian Navy ships entered Yemen’s ports evacuations-from-yemen-rescues-over-5600-people-mea_1576203.html
under less than certain security to evacuate
Indian citizens and other foreign nationals
during Operation Raahat. Three of the recently India on Thursday completed air evacuation from Sana’a as situation worsened in
acquired C-17 Globemaster III aircraft of the Yemen with a bomb blast rocking the Aden port, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)
Indian Air Force played an extensive role in informed.
the operation. NDTV reported that some 150
air hours were flown by these premier cargo (continued)
aircraft. For reasons of safety the military

OE Watch May 2015 60

INDO-PACIFIC ASIA Top

Continue: India Evacuates Citizens from Yemen

– Indicators of Operational Strengths and Weakness

cargo planes did not enter Yemeni airspace, but In a series of tweets, MEA spokesperson Syed Akbaruddin informed that air
rather landed in Djibouti to pick up passengers evacuations had culminated and staff at Indian embassy in Sana’a will now be relocated.
unloaded from Air India flights. The C-17s then
Informing about the situation in war-torn Yemen, Akbaruddin tweeted: “Security
returned with their humanitarian cargos to
situation in #Yemen deteriorates further with bomb blast at Aden port today. India
India.
completes its air evacuations from Sana’a.”
Many global voices are applauding India’s
...tweeted: “The following evacuation by Naval Ships from Al Hudaydah port for
bold, timely, and very successful humanitarian
rescue of thousands of displaced expatriates remaining nationals over next two days Embassy in Sana’a will need to shut operations
from the current violence in Yemen. What and relocate its personnel.”
remains to be heard is the regional thoughts ... wrote: “With the airlifting of over 630 persons from Sana’a today by three special Air
regarding the newly proven operational India flights, India has concluded its evacuation by air.”
capabilities for power projection in the Indian
Ocean that has been demonstrated by the ...he added, “The total no. of Indians evacuated from Sana’a by air has crossed 2900 by
Indian military. End OE Watch Commentary 18 special flights since the beginning of the air operations.”
(Welch) ....”Indian Naval Ship INS Sumitra evacuated 349 persons,including 46 Indians and 303
foreign nationals from Al Hudaydah port on 9 April,” read another tweet....

“The Air Force personnel ... are working round the clock to manage sorties by three C-17 planes ... bringing back
evacuees from Djibouti,”

Source: NDTV, “C-17 Globemasters clocked 150 hours in Yemen evacuation,” April 7, 2015 http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/c-17-
globemasters-clocked-150-hours-in-yemen-evacuation-753059

As part of a massive rescue operation, three C-17 Globemaster aircraft of Indian Air Force have clocked nearly 150 flying hours in the last
few days bringing back over 1,300 Indians from Djibouti after their evacuation from strife-torn Yemen.
....”The C-17 Unit of 81 squadron has pressed three planes for evacuation operation that have clocked 150 flying hours carrying back
evacuated Indians”, said Commanding Officer of the unit, Group Captain BS Reddy.
....Reddy who is one of the four pilots who took off for Djibouti, said the evacuation sorties were avoiding air space over the troubled region
and reaching Djibouti through a detour over Somalia for safety reasons.
“The aircraft cockpits are fortified with special steel armours to meet accidental hostile situations while flying over troubled region. The
planes are also equipped with early warning systems to ward off missile attacks,” Reddy said.
....Use of the biggest and the best cargo planes available to the IAF has an added advantage as Yemen and Saudi Arabia have expressed
reservations over any type of foreign military presence in the region, officers said.

OE Watch May 2015 61

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Philippines Police Commandos in Costly Counterterror Raid 16 April 2015

“Pursuit operations are underway against lawless elements who figured in an encounter with our troops
in Maguindanao ... even as we mourn the loss of some police commandos of the PNP-SAF who offered
the supreme sacrifice for peace,”

OE Watch Commentary: On 25 January 2015 Source: Manila Standard, “Palace Okayed SAF Raid,” January 27, 2015 http://
the Philippine National Police Special Action manilastandardtoday.com/mobile/2015/01/27/palace-okayed-saf-raid/
Force (SAF) lost 44 police commandoes killed
in action during a counterterrorist raid near ....“They (SAF) conducted a law enforcement operation in Mamasapano, Maguindanao
Mamasapano in Maguindanao. This incident to arrest a high-value suspected terrorist Zulkifli bin Hir also known as Marwan who
is proving to be very instructive in terms of
was allegedly a member of the Markaziyah, Jemaah Islamiyah’s central command. The
the challenges faced by the counterinsurgency
PNP-SAF performed this mission with courage and professionalism,” Coloma said.
and counterterrorist operational elements of
the government on the Island of Mindanao. ....But when pressed if he was saying that the SAF elements killed were being viewed
Operational security appears to have trumped as “collateral damage,” Coloma said: “We have no such conclusion. We should be more
coordination and liaison with the Philippines circumspect in making conclusions.”
Armed Forces and other agencies. Early
reports in the Manila Standard characterized .... the PNP SAF unit should have properly coordinated with military authorities
the raid as a “law enforcement operation ...to in Maguindanao considering that it was a top-level operations sanctioned by higher
arrest a high-value suspected terrorist.” The authorities.
National reports more details of the role of the Maguindanao is under the jurisdiction of the Army’s 6th Infantry Division.
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and
the breakaway Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Marwan, who carries a bounty of $5 million the United States had offered for his
Fighters in the day-long firefight resulting in capture, was reportedly killed during the encounter, but the SAF suffered the bigger
significant casualties all around. damage, with seven officers killed and several others wounded in the day-long clashes at
the outskirts of Pidsandawan, Masasapano,
Almost immediately after the tragic events,
voices arose in the Philippines’ press pointing Another terrorist, Abdul Basit Usman, who carries a $1 million reward, allegedly
to government knowledge and approval of the escaped during the firefight.
National Police’s unilateral actions. Editorials
....Confident that they had neutralized Arwan, the SAF members were about to leave the
in the Philippine Star speculate on President
area when they were ambushed by another group and were forced to scamper to different
Aquino’s direct involvement in approving
the ultimately deadly operation. Follow-on directions but later ended up in the rebel camps, triggering another firefight.
reporting in the Strait Times points out that the The clashes lasted until Sunday late evening, and by then, the SAF had suffered 47
Philippine Senate investigation and police panel casualties.
hearings have bolstered claims of liability and
may result in in charges being filed against the The SAF contingent were reportedly pinned down by a barrage of gunfire from the 108
national leadership. Further reports from that base command and 105 based command of the MILF under commanders Resbak and
source repeat how President Aquino “blamed a Visaya.
police general for giving him wrong information ....The Moro Islamic Liberation Front, meanwhile, branded the “special operation” by
about a botched secret mission against Islamic
the SAF as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
rebels that led to the deaths of 44 commandos.”
....In a separate statement, government chief negotiator Miriam Ferrer, deplored the
Recriminations between the SAF and the death of the policemen but did not offer any condemnation.
Philippines Armed Forces are also apparent.
“Our aim is to normalize the situation as soon as possible in order to prevent the
What remains to be seen is the impact of this displacement of civilians and give full swing to the humanitarian effort. This incident
government fiasco on the current peace process
and other recent acts of violence by other armed groups manifest the diverse security
with the MILF and the popular opinion in the
challenges that confound the peace process,” Ferrer said.
Philippines regarding the current government
as elections approach. End OE Watch “But our resolve to see through the process of legislating the Bangsamoro Basic Law
Commentary (Welch) (BBL) and implementing the different normalization programs, including the security

(continued)
OE Watch May 2015 62
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Continued: Philippines Police Commandos in Costly

Counterterror Raid
components, is only further strengthened. With better cooperation we will be able to prevent these kinds of incidents,” she added.
...Once passed, the BBL would implement the peace agreement between the government and the MILF - abolishing the Autonomous Region
in Muslim Mindanao and creating a new Bangsamoro political entity.

“Unfortunately their plan to exfiltrate [pull out] before being seen by the various forces there failed.”
Source: The National, “Philippines Probes Slaughter of 44 Police Commandos,” February 4, 2015 http://www.thenational.ae/world/southeast-
asia/philippines-probes-slaughter-of-44- MANILA //

The Philippine military and police defended their actions ... as an angry nation demanded answers following the slaughter of 44 police
commandos in a bungled anti-terror operation.
The policemen were attacked by at least two Muslim rebel groups, including one that signed a peace treaty with Manila last year, during a
January 25 mission to capture or kill one of the world’s most wanted militants – Malaysian bomb expert Zulkifli bin Hir.
Giving his first public account, military chief of staff General Gregorio Catapang said troops could not respond in time to save the police unit
that raided Zulkifli’s hideout in the southern island of Mindanao.
“We did not know the exact place where the [police] forces had to be extricated ... they were not telling us their exact location so it was
difficult,” Mr Catapang told a news conference.
....Police say Zulkifli was killed in the raid...
The US department of justice indicted Zulkifli in 2007 on terrorism charges and offered a reward of as much as $5 million for information
leading to his arrest or conviction.
Zulkifli is accused of having been a leader of the Al Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah organisation and is suspected to have been involved in a
2002 nightclub bombing on the resort island of Bali in Indonesia that killed 202 people.

“Another unresolved issue is the fact that while reinforcements from the military were requested as early
as 5:30 a.m., none was sent until 13 hours later in the afternoon.”

Source: Philippines Star, “Senate Investigation Finished,” February 26, 2015 http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2015/02/26/1427729/senate-
investigation-finished

.... an emotional Major General Edmundo Pangilinan expressing his bad feelings about his 6th Infantry Division men, who has jurisdiction
over Maguindanao, being blamed for the death of 44 Philippine National Police-Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) troopers.
...Senator Alan Peter Cayetano berated ... officials for not making a formal demand for the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to surrender
their rebels who are responsible for the killing of the thirty-five 55th Special Action Company (SAC) members.
....The question now: Since General Purisima and General Napeñas were singled out as accountable for their alleged failure to coordinate their
mission called Oplan Exodus with the military, what disciplinary action will be taken against them?
The other big question is will Justice Secretary Leila de Lima be able to file charges against the MILF rebels who did the killings, especially
those who brutally finished off the wounded SAF troopers?....
....So many other deficiencies indicate poor planning, including the lack of helicopters and guns to back up the SAF troopers.

(continued)

OE Watch May 2015 63

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Continued: Philippines Police Commandos in Costly

Counterterror Raid
“Senate, police reports lay blame on Philippine leader”
Source: Strait Times, “Philippine President Aquino’s approval rating plunges after botched police raid,” March 18, 2015 http://www.
stasiareport.com/the-big-story/asia-report/philippines/story/philippine-president-aquinos-approval-rating-plunges-aft#sthash.WjSvVjR0.dpuf

President Benigno Aquino’s approval and trust ratings have plunged to their lowest levels since he came to power in 2010 after several reports
found him liable for a botched police raid in January that left more than 60 people dead.
The findings by a Senate committee and a police panel could be used in lawsuits that may be filed after he steps down as president next year.
A Pulse Asia survey showed Mr Aquino’s approval rating sank to 38 per cent this month from 59 per cent in November, while his trust rating
fell to 36 per cent from 56 per cent.
Reacting to the survey, Mr Aquino’s spokesman Herminio Coloma told reporters: “We will continue to explain aspects of what happened
where there is much doubt. The process of explaining will not stop because our people need to understand exactly what transpired and know
the whole truth.”

“It was very clear, I was fooled”

Source: Strait Times, “Philippine President Aquino says he was ‘fooled’ about deadly botched commando raid,” March 9, 2015 http://www.
straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/philippine-president-aquino-says-he-was-fooled-about-deadly-botched-#sthash.vg8jZsoh.
dpuf

Philippine President Benigno Aquino on Monday blamed a police general for giving him wrong information about a botched secret mission
against Islamic rebels that led to the deaths of 44 commandos.
Mr Aquino is facing his biggest political crisis over the operation to capture a wanted militant with some lawmakers, Roman Catholic
bishops, civil society groups and activists calling on him to resign. “It was very clear, I was fooled,” Mr Aquino told reporters.”The truth is,
I was given the wrong information by the people who knew most what was happening. Unfortunately, the others who did not know anything
could not give any further information other than very raw information.”
On Jan 25, police commandos sneaked into a rebel area in the south to capture Zulkifli bin Hir, alias Marwan, an Al-Qaeda-linked bomb
maker with a US$5 million (S$6.9 million) United States bounty on his head. The commandoes, members of the Special Action Force, were
ambushed by Islamic rebels and 44 were killed.
The operation was led by General Getulio Napenas, who, Mr Aquino said, had deviated from a plan presented to him two weeks before the
operation. He said “appropriate charges” would be filed against Gen Napenas for insubordination.

OE Watch May 2015 64

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Thailand Reinforces Relations 16 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: In the Source: The Nation, “Thai diplomacy faces uphill tasks,” January 5, 2015 http://www.
midst of reports that relations between nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Thai-diplomacy-faces-uphill-tasks-30251168.html
the current Thai government and the
West continue to cool, Prime Minister
Prayut (former Army General and head ....Both the US and EU have been pressing Thailand for an early poll by the end of this year.
of the latest coup) is looking to seek a However, the countries in East Asia and Asean have expressed understanding of the difficult
“business as usual approach,” but with tasks the current government must overcome before a general election can be slated. China’s
little success. Since the beginning of diplomatic response towards the Prayut government was warm and quickly rewarded. The
2015 regional voices have pointed out
Thai-Chinese leaders have also established a strong personal rapport that even the 182-year US-
the current government’s missteps as
Thai relationship could not equal. US allies Japan and South Korea, have decided to conduct
they seek political reform and rewrite the
constitution after the coup. The Nation business transactions with the government at the highest levels despite their initial criticism of
has one such report, where commentators military adventurism. Prayut is scheduled to visit Japan early in February. This is the first time
analyze the detrimental outcome of that Thailand’s foreign policy has zeroed in on East Asia exclusively.
the “continued imposition of martial
....This will be the international environment the Thai government has to contend with and
law and electoral ambiguity.” Deputy
work on until the lifting of martial law and the scheduled election for the next 14-15 months.
Prime Minister Wissanu Krua-Ngam
revealed in January 2015 that planned It will be restrictive with small room for diplomatic manoeuvres. In October, Thailand failed
elections would be delayed until 2016. miserably to get sufficient votes to win its second bid for a seat on the UN Human Rights
“It did not go down well with the US Council in Geneva. That was a big loss of face. Before the May 22 coup, Bangkok was
and European Union. Later Washington confident of winning with overwhelming votes. As it turned out, six Western friends changed
said the new timeframe was unwise,” their minds and enabled Qatar to win.
say these sources. The article goes on to
....If this trend continues, the perception of Thailand in the regional and international arena
explain how the reaction from ASEAN
and other regional nations is far more will be greatly diminished....
understanding. This article is an excellent ...It did not go down well with the US and European Union. Later Washington said the new
foundation piece for understanding the timeframe was unwise,...
current Thai diplomatic dilemma.

Both in the region and without

Prayut has taken to the road to drum “...a planned submarine purchase is in line for discussions with Beijing.”
up economic and political support for
Thailand. His recent trip to China is
recorded in the Bangkok Post and reveals Source: Bangkok Post, “Prawit off to China to build defence ties,” April 5, 2015 http://www.
new interest in weapons purchases along bangkokpost.com/news/security/518587/prawit-off-to-china-to-build-defence-ties
with expanded joint exercises between
the two nations. The visit of the Russian .... the minister’s trip ... comes at the invitation of China’s Defence Minister Chang Wanquan.
prime minister to Thailand in April has It is his second visit to China in six months and the third meeting between the two ministers.
required the deputy prime minister and
Foreign Minister Tanasak Patimapragorn .... Relations between Thailand and China have been strengthened since the military coup last
to “insist that Thailand remains neutral year when Gen Prawiyt took over as Thailand’s leader.
when it comes to foreign affairs.” This time Gen Prawit will take with him all military commanders, including navy chief ADM
Additional reporting in the Bangkok Post
Kraisorn Chansuwanich, to China for the first time.
points to the continued efforts of the Thai
government to deflect any critics who ....The navy renewed a push to buy two submarines late last year with strong support from the
point out a loss of Western support and a defence minister, and China has offered its version with financing which could be repaid in 10
turn toward other allies. years.

Quantity of trade, frequency of military .... plans to foster defence ties by holding more joint exercises between their army, navy and air
force which now are held separately twice a year, the source said....

(continued)

OE Watch May 2015 65

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Continued: Thailand Reinforces Relations

“...the free-trade agreement between Thailand and the EU, which was almost achieved before the coup,
has been completely halted ”

exercises, and diplomatic support in

international forums have always been a
“It’s not surprising Thailand has opted to purchase more weapons from
reliable measure of Thailand’s bilateral Russia especially after the US cut down on so-called ‘military assistance’
relations. The outcomes of initiatives
to Thailand,”
with South Korea, Japan, and China will
tell the story about any significant shifts
before the planned elections in 2016. Source: The Bangkok Post, “Foreign minister denies Russia, China pivot,” April 13, 2015
End OE Watch Commentary (Welch) http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/526351/foreign-minister-denies-russia-china-pivot

.... critics suggested the country is leaning towards Russia and China.
Thailand maintains its usual foreign policy and has never chosen sides, said Gen Tanasak.
Russia has been a friend of Thailand for 118 years, he said. The US and Thailand have
maintained close relations for over 180 years.
....”We’re open and always play it straight with any sides. We’ve never befriended anyone
because we want to make others jealous. I can insist this government is honest and frank. We
are willing to cooperate with every country in the international community. And of course we
play by the rules,” Gen Tanasak said.
The visit of the Russian prime minister, the first of its kind in 25 years, resulted in joint
agreements in a number of areas, from energy to military hardware. These agreements
prompted critics to suggest Thailand’s foreign policy was shifting at a time when the US was
putting pressure on the government over the May 22 coup and its impact on the Thai political
situation. The US wants Thailand to return to a democracy.
....When Thailand purchased a large volume of weapons from the US, that country called the
purchases “military assistance’’ and the deals normally came with many conditions, said Mr
Paisal. If Thailand chooses to buy weapons primarily from Russia and China, Asia will become
the number one customer of those two countries, he said. The US would lose out as demand for
its dollars would decline.

OE Watch May 2015 66

KOREA Top

North Korean Leader at Russian Victory Parade 30 March 2015

OE Watch Commentary: There has been

considerable speculation over the past few Source: Ri Ch’o’l-hyo’k, “Preparatory Work in Russia for the Celebration of the 70th
Anniversary of the War Victory,” Rodong Sinmun Online, 30 March 2015.
months whether the North Korean leader will
http://www.rodong.rep.kp/ko/
attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow on
9 May. This would prove to be the first foreign
visit by Kim Jong Un since he assumed the role Preparatory Work for the 70th Anniversary of the War Victory
of supreme leader of the Democratic People’s
Russia has stepped up the preparatory work to splendidly celebrate the 70th anniversary
Republic of Korea, and, as such, would send a
strong message to its large neighbors. While the of the great fatherland war victory. Russia has held various celebratory events annually
regime in Pyongyang has tried to balance its to mark 9 May, day of the great fatherland war victory, but bigger significance has been
relations between Russia and China, over the attached to the occasion this time around.
past two decades it has relied most heavily for Russia has already commenced the work to meaningfully celebrate this year’s War
support from China. By visiting Moscow before
Victory Day by last year establishing a commemorative medal for the “70th anniversary
visiting Beijing, the North Korean leadership
of the victory of the great fatherland war of 1941-1945.”
may be signaling a desire to draw closer to
Russia. Parades to celebrate the War Victory Day will be held in 28 cities of Russia, and
around 78,500 people and approximately 2,000 items of military technical equipment
Relations between North Korea and Russia
are at their warmest level since the end of the are expected to be mobilized for this. Parades will also be held in the cities of the
Cold War. For instance, Russia has recently Community of Independent States, such as Minsk and Bishkek.
expedited the visa process for those applying Reportedly, about 15,000 soldiers will participate in the Moscow parade, which is
for a worker visa. There are already some twice the number of participants in the celebratory parade held on the 65th anniversary.
25,000 North Korean workers in Russia. In
The 70th anniversary of the war victory will be adorned with varied events including a
March the Russian Ministry of Defense released
celebratory banquet and a gun salute.
plans for joint military drills with North Korean
forces. Last February Ri Yong Nam, a North In order to further highlight the significance of the celebratory events, Russia has sent
Korean trade official, attended a newly formed invitations for the war victory celebratory events to the heads of scores of countries and
Russian-North Korean business council where chiefs of international organizations, and the leaders of many countries have already
he discussed Russia’s electricity exports to expressed their intention to attend the events….
North Korea’s Special Economic Zone in
Rason. The two countries are aiming to develop …As is well-known, Russia has been facing grave challenges and provocations
$1 billon in bilateral trade by 2020. infringing upon the interests and safety of the homeland in recent years….

While still good, relations between North …Russia is attempting to display the country’s potential and power of unity before the
Korea and China have cooled over the last dominationist forces, who are further obsessed with sanctions and pressure toward the
several months. The regime in Pyongyang may homeland, through the events celebrating the 70th anniversary of the war victory.
be trying to reduce its dependency upon its Since the outbreak of the Ukraine situation, the United States has expanded
large Chinese neighbor. For instance, when
international cooperation for politically isolating and economically suffocating Russia
Kim Jong Un purged his powerful uncle, Jang
through sanctions and pressure based on this, in a step by step manner, while increasing
Song-thaek, North Korean media blamed Jang,
claiming that he had sold North Korean natural the level of threats through NATO’s military actions….
resources to China at bargain prices. North …What the United States and its follower forces are aiming at is weakening Russia’s
Korea’s foreign policy now resembles that of national power by applying pressure politically, economically, and militarily and easily
the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, who tried to
putting a ring in its nose by escalating internal conflict and strife. Russia, well aware
maximize benefit by keeping a balance between
of such an attempt, has been trying to show that the ambition of hostile forces is no
China and Russia.
more than a daydream through the events of War Victory Day. In other words, it is
The brief excerpt from a North Korean attempting to display at home and abroad that no one can subjugate Russia by displaying
article provides another reason for closer the comprehensive national power of the country, including military power, and
cooperation between North Korea and Russia:
demonstrating the unified strength of the government, army, and people.
defense against a common enemy. According
to the article, Kremlin leaders are struggling
to defend against “the United States and its (continued)

OE Watch May 2015 67

KOREA Top

Continued: North Korean Leader at Russian Victory Parade

follower forces [which] are aiming at weakening Russia’s national power by applying pressure politically, economically, and militarily…”
Like similar staged events in Pyongyang, the Victory Day parade in Moscow will “display at home and abroad that no one can subjugate
Russia by displaying the comprehensive national power of the country, including military power, and demonstrating the unified strength of the
government, army, and people.” End OE Watch Commentary (Kim and Finch)

Turkey and China:Unlikely Strategic Partners

By Ms. Karen Kaya
In late September-early October 2010 Turkey and China held a bilateral military exercise in Turkey,
the first such exercise that China conducted with a NATO member. This, coupled with the numerous
high-level diplomatic and military visits between the two countries since 2009, has led to talk of a new
“strategic partnership” between Turkey and China. While it is debatable whether the two countries
are really at the level of a strategic partnership, the burgeoning Sino-Turkish relationship, which has
remained unconsidered and understudied, is worth examining in order to assess the implications it
may have for the US and its defense community. This article analyzes the Turkey-China relationship
in light of their strategic interests and discusses why it is unlikely that they will become true strategic
partners, given the wide divergence between these interests.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Turkey-and-China.pdf (continued)

OE Watch May 2015 68

CHINA Top

With Increasing Confidence, China’s Newest Submarine 7 April 2015

About to be Unveiled
“Judging from the vessel’s design, the Type-093G should have strong anti-ship and counter-submarine
capabilities… It is also likely to be upgraded with the capability of striking land targets with cruise
missiles in the near future.”

OE Watch Commentary: China continues Source: Zhao Lei, “Navy to Get 3 New Nuclear Subs,” China Daily USA, 3 April 2015,
to make strides in military-based technologies http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-04/03/content_19989106.htm
while also becoming more transparent about
its capabilities. Following are two articles Navy to Get 3 New Nuclear Subs
discussing the commissioning of the Type-093G,
a new, cutting-edge nuclear-powered attack China established its nuclear-powered submarine force in the early 1970s but had never
submarine. The first article is from China’s US shown it to the outside world until 2009, when two nuclear submarines took part in a
version of China Daily and the second offers an parade marking the 60th anniversary of the PLA navy’s founding.
analysis from Taiwan’s point of view. Cui Yiliang, editor-in-chief of Modern Ships magazine, said: “Though China was
The first article explains that China comparatively late in developing advanced nuclear-powered submarines such as the
established its nuclear-powered submarine Type-093G, we used a lot of the most cutting-edge technologies and equipment on our
force in the early 1970s. However, the country submarines, enabling them to compete with their foreign counterparts.”
had maintained silence on the capability
“Judging from the vessel’s design, the Type-093G should have strong anti-ship and
until 2009, during which time two nuclear
submarines participated in a parade marking counter-submarine capabilities,” said Yin Zhuo, a senior expert with the navy. “It is also
the 60th anniversary of the PLA Navy’s likely to be upgraded with the capability of striking land targets with cruise missiles in
founding. The article cites several other sources the near future.”
in describing the capabilities of the submarine. Liu Jiangping, a naval equipment expert in Beijing who had served in the PLA navy
The Type-093G’s wing-shaped cross section is
for decades, said the vessel’s vertical launching system enables the submarine to launch
designed to improve speed and mobility while
long-distance strikes from underwater, increasing the vessel’s survivability in war.
also reducing noise. It has a vertical launcher
capable of delivering China’s YJ-18 supersonic
anti-ship missile.
Source: “PLA’s Type 093G Submarines ‘Could Destroy Izumo,’” Want China
The second article goes further by stating Times, 7 April, 2015, http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.
that, while the new Type-093G might not be aspx?id=20150407000124&cid=1101
powerful enough to engage a US carrier battle
group in the Asia-Pacific, it would be powerful
enough to defeat Japan’s new helicopter PLA’s Type 093G Submarines ‘Could Destroy Izumo
destroyer Izumo in a naval confrontation over China’s new Type 093G nuclear-powered attack submarine would be powerful enough
the disputed East China Sea. Izumo is said to be
to defeat Japan’s new helicopter destroyer Izumo in a potential naval confrontation over
Japan’s largest warship since World War II.
disputed East China Sea territory, according to the state-run China News Service (CNS).
It is interesting to note China’s growing
With a vertical launching system similar to the Los Angeles-class, nuclear-powered fast
transparency as the country strengthens. It
attack submarines of the US Navy, the Type 093G can fire beneath the surface of the
could be a show of force, or an increased
confidence in its capabilities. End OE Watch water. It may not be powerful enough to engage the US carrier battle groups in the Asia-
Commentary (Hurst) Pacific, but it is certainly capable of dealing with Japan’s helicopter carrier in the region.
The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force is currently unable to intercept China’s long-
range anti-ship cruise missiles.

OE Watch May 2015 69

CHINA Top

Will Pyongyang Allow Access to Other Countries 6 April 2015

in Pursuit of Rare Earth Elements?

“North Korea walks a rare earth tightrope among China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia.”

OE Watch Commentary: Access to

rare earth elements has been a hot topic Source: Ko Soo-Suk, “Regional Players Eve Pyongyang’s Rare Earth Mineral Reserves,”
since 2010. These strategic elements Korea JoongAng Daily, 6 April 2015, http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.
are critical to hundreds of high-tech aspx?aid=3002750
applications, including military-based
technology. Over the past several
Regional Players Eve Pyongyang’s Rare Earth Mineral Reserves
decades China has taken steps to corner
the market. The country now produces As ties between China and Japan have
nearly 90 percent of the world’s rare progressively soured over the past few years,
earth elements. Tokyo has increasingly turned its eyes toward
The following article talks about a North Korea’s natural resources.
potentially “monolithic reserve” of …As Japan searched for a more secure
rare earth elements located in North supply (than China) of rare earth minerals
Korea. While the actual amount of
in Vietnam, Kazakhstan and Estonia, it
reserves located within the country
eventually locked its sights on North Korea…
is questionable, this could impact the
regional geopolitical playing field. In the …the increasingly heated territorial dispute
article the author explains that growing between Japan and China opened North
territorial disputes have prompted Korea’s eyes to the opportunity present to it.
Japan, which is heavily dependent on
… North Korea walks a rare earth tightrope
China for rare earth elements for its
production of high-tech products, to seek among China, Japan, South Korea and
out alternate supplies. According to the Russia...
article, the increasing territorial disputes … North Korea’s options now are limited
have “opened North Korea’s eyes to the and its allies dwindling.
opportunity present to it.” Meanwhile,
while North Korea’s late leader, Kim China pays close attention to rare earth
Jong-il, favored Japan due to his mother exports from North Korea, and it is not
having lived there, relations between pleased to see that North Korea could be a
the North and Japan have been tense new supply line for Japan, forcing it to lose
due to “issues surrounding the regime’s leverage.
abduction of Japanese citizens decades
ago.” Meanwhile, as the article points So China has now opted to import rare
out, “China pays close attention to rare earth minerals from North Korea in small
earth exports from North Korea, and it quantities. According to statistics released by
is not pleased to see that North Korea the Korea Foreign Trade Association, North Korea rare earth exports to China last year added
could be a new supply line for Japan, up to about 60 metric tons.
forcing it [China] to lose leverage.”

The article also talks about relations between North Korea and South Korea and the possibility of the two countries cooperating on
developing the North’s rare earth reserves. However, “South Korea does not appear to have any interest in developing rare earth minerals
with the North, particularly with ties as tense as they are…”

Russia is another possible player. According to the article, in October Russia and an unspecified North Korean company embarked to
repair North Korea’s inland railway system.

China still holds the key to the rare earth industry and influence over North Korea, importing some 60 metric tons from the country last
year. It will be interesting to see which way North Korea turns and how its actions might impact regional relations.
End OE Watch Commentary (Hurst)

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Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps 15 April 2015

Continues to Grow
“…the new city will play an important role in the transition of the corps to garrison (provide with troops)
China’s western border regions from cultivation to industrialization.”

OE Watch Commentary: In its continued Source: “China’s Xinjiang Establishes Eighth ‘Corps City,’” Xinhua, 13 April 2015,
push to urbanize parts of Xinjiang, the Xinjiang http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2015-04/13/content_35306610.htm
Production and Construction Corps (XPCC),
a quasi-military organization founded in
1954, formally opened its eighth “Corps city” China’s Xinjiang Establishes Eighth ‘Corps City’
recently. The first article announces that XPCC Commander Liu Xinqi said the new city will play an important role in the
achievement. The new city, called Kokdala,
transition of the corps to garrison China’s western border regions from cultivation to
covers a land area of 980 square kilometers
industrialization.
(378 square miles) in Lli Kazak Autonomous
Prefecture, near the Kazakh border in Xinjiang, The XPCC maintains military structural titles such as divisions and regiments, and has
and has a population of about 80,000. The its own administrative and judicial bodies. It now has more than 4,000 enterprises and a
article goes on the explain that XPCC maintains total population of more than 2.45 million.
military structural titles such as divisions and
regiments and has its own administrative and
judicial bodies. It now has more than 4,000
Source: Yao Tong and Yang Yingchun, “近几年，新疆陆续新设立市为新型城镇
enterprises and a total population of more than
化建设增添新的活力 (In Past Few Years, Xinjiang has Added New Vitality to New
2.45 million.
Urbanization by Successively Establishing New Cities),” Xinjiang Ribao Online, 15
In the second article the authors report April 2015, <http://epaper.xjdaily.com/detail.aspx?id=8975795>.
that since 2010, each of the eight cities have
played “an important role in building the (The cities established by the XPCC) play an important role in building the core region
core region of the Silk Road Economic Belt
of the Silk Road Economic Belt and in realizing social stability and long-term peace.
and in realizing social stability and long-term
peace.” The article goes on to explain that [Xinjiang] Production and Construction Corps cultivated land areas have had problems
“as early as the First CPC Central Committee with a certain degree of restrictions and limitations on their administrative management
Conference on Xinjiang Work, the CPC Central authority. As early as the First CPC Central Committee Conference on Xinjiang
Committee clearly stated that it supports the Work, the CPC Central Committee clearly stated that it supports the Corps in choosing
Corps in choosing central cultivated land area
central cultivated land area towns with important strategic positions, good economic
towns with important strategic positions, good
foundations, and great potential for development, and to add county-level cities directly
economic foundations, and great potential for
development.” administered by the Autonomous Region in the Shihezi model.

Over the past 61 years the XPCC has been

growing in numbers, strength, and control. It
is a movement that is worth tracking. End OE
Watch Commentary (Hurst)

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China Considers Cyber Warfare and the Law of Armed Conflict Date

“Baidu Encyclopedia defines cyber warfare as follows: ‘Cyber warfare refers to a series of activities to
attack and defend networks in order to jam and disrupt the enemy’s networked information system and to
ensure the normal operation of our own networked information system.’” [http://baike,baidu.com/]

OE Watch Commentary: China has written Source: Xie Dan and Chen Xingyu, “Considerations Triggered by Cyber Warfare on the
extensively on cyber operations over the past Law of Armed Conflict—A Case Study and Jurisprudential Exploration,” China Military
decade or more, developing concepts such Science, No. 5 2013, pp. 130-139.
as system sabotage and integrated network-
electronic warfare. The article under discussion …within the context of the Law of Armed Conflict, cyber warfare should refer to
here was published in China Military Science
hostile operational actions taken directly in coordination with military actions, or as
and is one of the first open source Chinese
standalone military actions, by a state or a warring group or individuals controlled by a
attempts at tying cyber war to the Law of Armed
Conflict. Therefore the article will be dissected state to utilize its computer network attack capability through non-material means, such
and presented in four parts: definitions and as “disruption, deprivation, control, weakening or destruction” to specifically attack
characteristics; whether cyber war should be information stored in enemy computers or networks, or enemy computers and networks.
regulated by the Law of Armed Conflict; how
Based on the analysis illustrated above, we can see that as a novel operational mode,
cyber war restricts the Law of Armed Conflict;
cyber warfare has a number of distinctively different characteristics. First, there is some
and self-defense and liability in cyber war.
novelty in cyber warfare media and the battlefield environment…In cyber warfare,
The article seeks to answer four questions virtual network space is used as a carrier for operations…Next, the operating time
according to the abstract: How should cyber of cyber warfare is long lasting in nature…Next, cyber warfare involves a variety of
warfare be defined in the context of the existing
subjects…Fourthly, the warring process in cyber warfare is abrupt in nature…Fifthly,
Law of Armed Conflict? What is the relation
cyber warfare is significantly “asymmetric” in nature…Sixthly, cyber warfare is
between cyber warfare and the prohibition on
the use of force under the Charter of the United anonymous in nature.
Nations? Should cyber warfare be regulated In conclusion, cyber warfare has its unique connotations and attributes. It is significantly
and curtailed by the existing Law of Armed different from conventional operational modes. As a result, it becomes a “multiplier” of
Conflict? How should legal liability for cyber combat capability and the “top choice” for every country in enhancing its military might.
warfare be determined and investigated? End
To this end, there is obviously a need to include it into the regulatory domain of the Law
OE Watch Commentary (Thomas)
of Armed Conflict in order to prevent its abuse to cause undue harm to human society.

“Presently, according to more authoritative doctrine, cyber warfare, otherwise known as network
confrontation, refers to operational actions taken in information network space to disrupt enemy network
systems and network information, or to weaken its capability, in order to protect our own network system
and network information.” [PLA Military Terms, Beijing: Military Science Press, 2011, p. 286.]

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China’s Silk Road: 20 April 2015

Logic of the State Leaves Little Room for Market’s ‘Invisible Hand’

OE Watch Commentary: Arms of the Chinese

Source: “Silk Road Fund to Launch Soon,” Crienglish, 13 March 2015. http://english.cri.
state financial sector seem to be mobilizing
cn/12394/2015/03/13/3781s869860.htm.
to fulfill Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2013
launch of his One Belt One Road (1B1R)
initiative. The initiative centers on a series Silk Road Fund Launching
of interconnecting infrastructure projects
by which China intends to better connect its Jin Qi is the head of board of directors of the fund. “The Silk Road Fund is not an aid
western provinces with Central Asia, the Indian fund or a donation fund. We will stick to market principles, invest in profitable projects,
Ocean, and Europe beyond. Strategically, ensure reasonable returns for our long-term investments, and safeguard shareholders’
China hopes to not only foster development interests.” The new fund is designed for investment in areas such as infrastructure,
in its relatively less prosperous western half, resource development, and industrial and financial cooperation through various financing
but also participate at various levels in the methods.
development of the Central Asian states through
which the “Road” would traverse. To realize its
aims, China is allocating about $90 billion in Source: “China PBOC To Recapitalize Policy Banks With Fx Reserves,” MNI News, 20
state funds: $40 billion for its own “Silk Road April 2015. https://mninews.marketnews.com/print/1174566.
Fund” and $50 billion as its contribution to the
“Asian Infrastructure Development Bank,” a
new multilateral lender principally sponsored How Silk Road Projects Will Be Funded
by China. The central bank will inject $32 billion into China Development Bank and another $30
China is boldly striking out with massive billion into the Export-Import Bank of China, sources said. The report quoted a CDB
amounts of state capital into a region where source who said that the banks need long-term foreign exchange funds to support the
both global investors and development banks government’s plan to tie Central and East Asia into a vast trading area, an initiative
hesitate to lend and where Western, Middle dubbed “one road, one belt”. The State Council recently approved reform plans for the
Eastern, and Southeast Asian infrastructure three policy banks in a move that analysts said effectively ended earlier moves to become
companies severely limit their activities.
commercial entities.
Insecurities abound in the Central and South
Asian region. Legal as well as physical
insecurities have long discouraged most other Source: “Results of PPP Investment Model Don’t Match Early Enthusiasm,” Caixin, 10
large-scale infrastructure companies from April 2015. http://english.caixin.com/print/print_en.jsp.
pursuing projects in the region that puts their
capital – or their staff and equipment – at risk.
So, in what way are these Chinese-sponsored Private Sector Avoidance of White-Elephant Projects
projects different?
A highly anticipated model that would see partnerships between public and private
In the first article, the chairwoman of China’s investors set up to get infrastructure projects built has fallen far short of expectations in
Silk Road Fund states that her fund “will stick practice. A policy researcher close to the NDRC, China’s top economic planner, said that
to market principles.” Can the large amounts of without proper legal protection of private companies’ long-term interests in PPP projects
capital involved in China’s Silk Road initiative and a clarification of supervision responsibilities, firms will hesitate to take part.
be deployed profitably? Is there sufficient
local demand for these projects and therefore (continued)
the ability to pay for them? Or will China be
the demand generator that makes these projects sustainable? Given the region’s low per capital incomes, high levels of political instability,
and low levels of property rights, it is doubtful that local demand will generate sufficient surpluses. Reality likely lies closer to the assertion
that China is building this infrastructure for its own use. It intends to create an alternate land route for its imports and thereby decrease
its vulnerability to potential interdiction of the Straits of Malacca. At least as important, it hopes to expand its export markets to include
currently poorly served Central Asia and beyond.

According to the second article, China is recapitalizing its state-owned development banks in order to arm them with the funds necessary to
begin the decadal work of funding Silk Road infrastructure projects. An interesting indicator that Silk Road projects will not “stick to market
principles” is the reversal of the prior moves to commercialize these banks’ lending decisions. A market-oriented entity would look upon

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Continued: China’s Silk Road:

Logic of the State Leaves Little Room for Market’s ‘Invisible Hand’

Central Asian infrastructure as an extreme risk venture.

The third article gives another indirect but telling indicator that China’s 1B1R projects are more strategic calculus than market analysis.
Even in China itself, when the government is not assuming the full cost of infrastructure, the private sector shows no enthusiasm for projects
that do not have clear ownership and rules on both income generation and its distribution.

It is highly likely that China will deploy its financial might and build this infrastructure to further its regional agenda. It is also likely that
these works will in some fashion be gainfully used by the host countries, as well as Chinese merchants and potentially armed forces. The
question is how will China’s subtle but deliberate blending of economic and strategic power mechanisms translate into its ability to influence
Central and South Asia? End OE Watch Commentary (Zandoli)

The Strategic Implications of Chinese Companies Going Global

By COL Heino Klinck, US Army; Edited by Cindy Hurst, FMSO

China’s overseas direct investment (ODI) has become one of the biggest economic stories of the 21st century. In a relatively short time
span, China has become the number one overseas investor amongst developing countries as well as the world’s sixth largest overseas
investor overall with $150 billion invested in foreign markets. This marks a development of strategic significance with implications that
go beyond simple economics. This paper explores China’s economic and political strategies of going global as well as the geopolitical
implications for national security in political, economic, and diplomatic terms for the United States and other countries.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/Collaboration/FAO/Strategic-Implications.pdf

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A Chinese Perspective on Possible Lifting of Iran Sanctions 10 April 2015

“Once the lifting of sanctions is in effect, China is likely to benefit from Iran’s harbor. The Iranian
nuclear issue reaching a final agreement is conducive to China.”

OE Watch Commentary: In a Chinese-

Source: “中国能从伊朗获利多少：多项目或将面临巨大冲击 (China Can Gain a
language article written on 10 April 2015
Huge Profit from Iran: Many Projects or Face a Great Attack, sina.com.cn, 10 April
for sina.com, Wang Jin, a Chinese scholar,
2015.
discussed his country’s perspectives on possible
outcomes of the lifting of Western sanctions on
Iran in return for some Iranian concessions China Can Gain a Huge Profit from Iran: Many Projects or Face a
on its nuclear program. According to him, the Great Attack
lifting of sanctions on Iran would allow Chinese
US and EU trade sanctions on Iran made it struggle for more than 30 years. If there is a
companies to engage in more infrastructure
development in Iran and provide oil exploration significant loosening of sanctions, the situation will change, but the long-term effects of
and production technology to Iran. While this seeing goods “Made in China” will bring fatigue to Iranian consumers and will subtly
would be a boon for Sino-Iranian relations, reinforce Iranian customers’ tendency to prefer Western products. However, Iran’s
he suggested that the flooding of goods that Chabhar port and China and Pakistan’s Gwadar port project would be tremendously
are “Made in China” to Iran would fatigue impacted. Goods coming from China’s Xinjiang Province to Pakistan’s Gwadar port
Iranian customers and ultimately lead them to go along difficult terrain and have been long harassed by the Taliban in Pakistan and
preferring higher-quality Western products.
Balochi separatist groups, and the security environment in the future is unlikely to
In addition, the lifting of Western and possibly change. In contrast, the Chabhar port project between India and Iran has a distinct
UN sanctions would allow the Beijing-led advantage. Geographically speaking, Iran’s harbor is only a few hundred kilometers
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to from Gwadar Port, but has excellent natural harbor conditions, and Iran’s relatively good
consider inviting Iran as a member (no country social order is stable. Once the lifting of sanctions is in effect, China is likely to benefit
under UN sanctions is allowed to be a member
from Iran’s harbor. The Iranian nuclear issue reaching a final agreement is conducive to
at present). In 2015 the SCO is expecting to
China.
decide on the candidacy of both India and
Pakistan, and if Iran also joined it would China and Iran have always had a long history of traditional trade links. From Iran’s
lead to the expansion of the SCO and elevate perspective, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, and Iran needs China’s financial and
its status as a bona fide Eurasian security technical support. Second, Iran needs China’s oil technology. Third, Iran needs China to
institution. Although Wang Jin does not mention
provide help and support for infrastructure development in the country.
SCO expansion specifically, there is a strong
likelihood that China would welcome using the
SCO as an institution to project a Beijing-led
regional foreign policy deeper into Eurasia.

The article also discusses possible strategic consequences of the end of the sanctions. One consequence is that Iran’s Chabhar Port could
supplant or at least complement Pakistan’s China-built Gwadar port as the key entry point for maritime supplies from Africa and the Middle
East to Central Asia. This would especially be the case if Pakistan remains unstable due to militancy. As a result of the increased role of
Chabhar Port, Central Asia would become less trade-dependent on Russia and China, while China would benefit from having the port as
another option for importing resources via Central Asia in the case of a major conflict in the South China Sea. End OE Watch Commentary
(Zenn)

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Islamic State Causes Russia to Ramp up Central Asian Security 6 April 2015

“This threat is not just a consequence of the departure of the Americans and their allies from beyond the
Panj River…. Far more radical supporters of the so-called “Islamic State” turned up in Afghanistan…
They announced that they were opening a “third front” in Central Asia. Along with Syria and Iraq.”

Source: Sergey Ishchenko, “Armageddon on Russia’s Southern Underbelly: Tajik Army and Our 201st Military Base Next to Afghanistan Are
Living as Though Tomorrow Were 22 June,” Svobodnaya Pressa Online, 06 April 015, http://svpressa.ru/issue/news.php?id=117858, accessed
15 April 2015.

Armageddon on Russia’s Southern Underbelly

OE Watch Commentary: Russia has
had mixed feelings about the presence Tajikistan is feverishly preparing for war. Sadly, every day brings more and more news
of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, attesting to just this.
Russia’s perceived backyard. On one Military exercises – simply grandiose for such a small country – were held on this republic’s
hand, these forces diminish Russian
territory in mid-March on the border with Afghanistan (with a total length in excess of 1,300
influence in the region and create a
km) and throughout the Khatlon region. Some 50,000 people participated in the maneuvers at
feeling of encirclement; on the other
hand, these foreign forces mitigate the once. Not only soldiers and officers but also reservists urgently called up from the reserve. In
threat of Islamic extremism that Russia addition, representatives of the Tajikistani Defense Ministry traveled to villages and urged the
fears will flow from Afghanistan to Post local population to participate voluntarily in what was happening…
Soviet Central Asia and eventually
to Russia itself. In general, Russia Tajik Ground Forces (approximately 8,800 personnel)
has generally seen the latter choice Dushanbe- 7th Airborne Brigade, 12th Artillery Brigade, Mountain Rifle Brigade
as the lesser of the two evils and has
permitted the Russian railways to be Qurghonteppa- 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade
used for the transfer of supplies to Khujand-The 3rd Motorized Rifle Brigade
support these foreign forces via the
Tajik Ground Forces Equipment
Northern Distribution Network.
30 T-72 tanks, seven T-62 tanks, eight BMP-1s, 15 BMP-2s, 23 BTRs,
The looming withdrawal or drastic
10 122mm D-30 howitzers, three BM-21 MLRS, 10 120mm PM-38 mortars
reduction of these foreign forces
has been of concern to Russia for Tajik Airforce (approximately 1,500 personnel)
quite some time. It has made efforts 1 Tu-134A, four Mi-24 combat helicopters, 12 Mi-8 and Mi-17 transport helicopters.
at increasing multilateral security
cooperation in Central Asia through
the Collective Security Treaty
In addition, training of Tajikistani commanders and gunners of Grad multiple rocket launchers
Organization, Shanghai Cooperation
on the local Lyaur Range is being completed under the leadership of Russian officer-instructors.
Organization, and Council of Border
Guards. It is also expending resources Their training is calculated to take three months.
on a bilateral basis in Central Asia Tajikistani border guards were switched to an intensified state border protection regime in
by engaging in security cooperation February.
activities to increase Central Asian
Citing an unnamed source on the Russian General Staff, Russian media reported recently that
military capabilities. The biggest
benefactor of these programs, as Moscow had made the decision to give Tajikistan military assistance to a total value of 70 billion
the accompanying article describes, rubles ($1.2 billion). Is this a lot or a little?
is Tajikistan, which will reportedly The “defense expenditure” section of the law on Tajikistan’s budget for this year is stamped
receive 1.2 billion dollars of Russian
“Not for publication.” This in itself makes you think. Because Dushanbe used to give these
security assistance - about six times
figures with no problem.
the annual Tajik defense budget.
Russia has already increased the

(continued)
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Continued: Islamic State Causes Russia to Ramp up Central Asian Security

size and capabilities of Russia’s 201st Russia’s 201st Military Base in Tajikistan (approximately 7,500 personnel)
Military Base in Tajikistan, but now,
Dushanbe Garrison- The 92nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (consisting of three
due to an increasing perceived threat
motorized rifle battalions, sniper company, tank company, artillery battalion, surface-
from the Islamic State, it is providing
additional training and material to-air missile battalion, engineer company, and medical company), reconnaissance
support to Tajikistan to fend off battalion, rocket-artillery battalion, and support units
invasions from Islamic militants coming Qurghonteppa Garrison-The 191st Motorized Rifle Regiment
out of Afghanistan. End OE Watch
Kulob Garrison- The 149th Motorized Rifle Regiment
Commentary (Bartles)

It is known, for example, that in 2013 the republic’s military budget amounted to a scanty $170 million. The year before -- $112 million. This
just about made it possible to maintain the local army of 8,800 soldiers and officers united in three motorized rifle brigades, one artillery
brigade, and one airborne brigade of the Ground Forces and also a helicopter regiment of the Air Force.
Now it turns out that Moscow is ready to present Dushanbe with weapons and military hardware worth seven times this country’s defense
budget as of 2013. Not at once, naturally, not in the space of one year. But, all the same, such a large-scale decision requires an explanation.
However, it is self-evident: Since the rumble of, to date, training shots is to be heard increasingly frequently next to the border with
Afghanistan, this means that both Moscow and Dushanbe are expecting the blow to come from there. At the same time this threat is not just
a consequence of the departure of the Americans and their allies from beyond the Panj River. The evacuation of the NATO coalition from
Afghanistan before the end of last year was known about long ago. It had long been clear that Taliban extremists would at once try to fill the
military-political vacuum that has arisen in Central Asia.
Both Dushanbe and Moscow prepared for this. But the reality proved far worse. Far more radical supporters of the so-called “Islamic State”
turned up in Afghanistan…They announced that they were opening a “third front” in Central Asia. Along with Syria and Iraq.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoliy Antonov recently made the following comment on this: “We can see how they are starting to
press our allies – above all, the Collective Security Treaty Organization countries and Tajikistan – toward the southern borders.” Further:
“We can see what is happening in Afghanistan and how complex the situation there is. We can see how various terrorist organizations are
being reformatted.”

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Russia Increases Military Presence in Tajikistan 16 April 2015

OE Watch Commentary: Afghanistan’s

Source: “Командующий 201-й РВБ: К 2020 году численность военных будет
tenuous stability grows all the more uncertain.
увеличена до 9 тыс.” [Commander of the 201st Russian military base: By the year 2020
Most recently the Islamic Movement Uzbekistan
the number of the military will grow to nine thousand] ASIA-Plus, 3 April 2015. http://
(IMU) has sworn an oath of fealty to the news.tj/ru/news/komanduyushchii-201-i-rvb-k-2020-godu-chislennost-voennykh-budet-
Islamic State (IS). Military command, especially uvelichena-do-9-tys
among members of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO), is picking up on
these developments. The CSTO is expected to Commander of the 201st Russian military base: By the year 2020 the number of the
commit more military support to its member military will grow to nine thousand.
nations along Afghanistan’s borders, but Russia At the briefing, commander of the military force Evgeny Tubol talked about plans
especially is committing to direct increases in
and tasks of the base, reporting that for the purpose of modernization and technical
personnel and equipment at its 201st Motorized
rearmament the Russian military base will receive new modern equipment until 2020
Rifle Division, based in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
and that its staff will increase to nine thousand soldiers.
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan
The major general reported that currently the staff of the base numbers approximately
all share Afghanistan’s northern border. As
5,900 people. . . The commander stressed that the base is composed exclusively of
a result, the security services of these states
have long been on edge in anticipation of military personnel and civilians on contract from Russia. . . Evgeny Tubol reported that
resumed conflict in the region. Lately, Russia in the framework of the signed agreement, every year up to 1,000 specialists will be
was reported by Turkmen news media to have trained for the Tajik army – tank operators, air defense units, communications and other
collaborated with Uzbek security services (see: forms of military.
http://www.fergananews.com/news/23194) by
Tubol stressed that the main responsibility of the base is providing national security
sending border guards to the Afghanistan-
for Russia and its allies in the Central Asian region, providing cooperation with the
Turkmenistan border. Russia is lending even
more overt support to Tajikistan. Ethnic Tajik military forces of Tajikistan in the event of aggression from the territory of Afghanistan,
fighters believed to be fighting for the IS in defense of important state and military objectives in the country that they are located in,
Syria and Iraq lately have issued numerous receiving Russian units on the territory of Tajikistan that are assigned to crisis situations
statements threatening to bring jihad back to and joint action in the form of a united group of military force.
Tajikistan. While it could be difficult for many
In the words of the major general, in the case of necessity and of adoption of a political
ethnic Tajik fighters serving for IS in the Middle
decision by member countries of the CSTO, units of the base may arrive to the Tajik-
East to return to Tajikistan, IS patronage of the
IMU could jeopardize security in Tajikistan and Afghan border within a day in order to deflect possible attacks.
northern Afghanistan.

Increasing the numbers of soldiers in the 201st, as well as outfitting them with updated equipment, could alleviate some of Tajikistan’s
anxieties stemming from its neighbor to the south. Major General Evgeny Tubol, Commander of the 201st base in Dushanbe, made clear that
Russia intends to use the 201st to initiate defensive operations on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border in coordination with Tajik military forces
in the event of any incursions made from Afghanistan. According to Tubol, improvements made to the base will be done in order to work
toward the formation of a united Russian and Tajik military force. As Russia is allegedly cooperating with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan on
defense of their southern borders, Russia is increasing its capacity to police Afghanistan’s northeastern border, indicating a renewed interest
in influencing the state of security in the region. End OE Watch Commentary (Rose)

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A Paramilitary Organization in Kyrgyzstan? 19 March 2015

“…the rebirth of semi-criminal, paramilitary citizens groups is the consequence of revolutions and
seizures of power that took place in Kyrgyzstan in the last decade”

OE Watch Commentary: The Kyrgyz

Source: Gromskiy, Pavel. “К чему приведет радикализация молодежи? (What is the
group “Kyrk Chorolor” (Forty Warriors)
radicalization of youth leading to?),” Vesti.kg, 19 March 2015.
made headlines last December when its
http://www.vesti.kg/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=33025:k-chemu-
members went into a nightclub in Bishkek privedet-radikalizatsiya-molodezhi?&Itemid=125
and temporarily detained a few dozen people,
mostly Chinese nationals and Kyrgyz women,
the latter of whom they accused of being What is leading the radicalization of youth?
prostitutes. The group claimed it carried out its
As reported by “Vesti.kg” the leader of the semi-criminal group “Kalys”, Jenish
raid in order to protect the dignity and culture
of Kyrgyz people and that it was acting with Moldokmato, said that it will help some athletes to create a “paramilitary” organization
the support of Kyrgyzstan’s Interior Ministry to take action against external threats…the movement will move toward cleansing the
(MVD) and National Security Committee state of terrorists and child rapists, and protesting non-governmental organizations and
(GKNB). The accompanying article reports individuals…to all who fall into the category of “deserving” there will be “preventative
on similar groups that have recently appeared conversations”, and, if necessary, the application of force…the group is prepared to take
in Kyrgyzstan, including one that has said action anywhere in the country on short notice.
it will utilize athletes to form a paramilitary
organization. The article provides some …“Kyrk Choro” is another group with a nationalist mentality, and is under investigation
background on how these groups have formed for an attack on a private establishment. Members of the group “Patriot” have been
over the past several years and offers a warning prosecuted in Russia for abusing Kyrgyz women who had met with men of other
on what might happen if the groups are allowed nationalities…the rebirth of semi-criminal, paramilitary citizens groups is the
to continue to operate. consequence of revolutions and seizures of power that took place in Kyrgyzstan in the
The article implies that the government, or last decade…
some government officials, are behind these …“The danger is that politicians think that they can manage and control the
kinds of groups. In the case of “Kyrk Chorolor” marginalized, but this is a delusion – crime is not possible to control” – noted Cholpon
there was no order or endorsement of the
Jakupov, head of the legal organization Adilet.
group’s activities, but officials acknowledged
that the group had signed a memorandum
with authorities, which leaders of the group
interpreted as permission to carry out their goals as they saw fit, including their raid in December. One of the heads of “Kyrk Chorolor”
has since been arrested and charged with hooliganism because of the raid. The group “Kalys” (a Kyrgyz word which roughly translates as
impartial) has been active for over a year, but it was the recent announcement in this article that it will become paramilitary and work to
combat external threats that has caused alarm. A few days after this article appeared, representatives of the GKNB and MVD announced that
they will not allow this type of organization to carry out law enforcement in the country.

Lastly, the author of the article connects the revolutions in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and 2010 to the rebirth of these kinds of groups. The word
“rebirth” could be referring to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when funding and opportunities for athletes dried up and some became
involved in providing “muscle” for racketeering groups. The groups mentioned in this article claim to be focused on apparent threats
(including external threats) to Kyrgyz culture and the stability of the country and not necessarily carrying out the same function as the
racketeering groups that preceded them. The author also offers a warning on being able to control these groups in the future. While it cannot
be verified where in the country Kalys is active or how many members it has, it is worth remembering how civil unrest in Kyrgyzstan can
quickly take place and adjust to tactics of police and security forces. End OE Watch Commentary (Stein)

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The Capabilities of Kazakhstan’s 18 March 2015

Caspian Border Guards Detachment

“In comparison to previous years – this is a reduction in the number of offenders. This is a result of
complex application of force and equipping the coastal force.”

OE Watch Commentary: The legal status of

Source: “Bedenko, Grigoriy. “Браконьеры убивают Каспий (Poachers are killing the
the Caspian as a lake or a sea by its littoral states
Caspian),” Vox Populi, 18 March 2015. http://www.voxpopuli.kz/main/brakonery-
has yet to be resolved, but as the accompanying
ubivayut-kaspiy-11830.html
link to a photo essay by Vox Populi shows, the
unclear status does not prevent Kazakhstan from
patrolling along the country’s coast. The legal Poachers are killing the Caspian
dispute over the Caspian, in short, is whether
Spring is here and it is a busy time for the Kazakh border guards…every year the
or not it is defined as a lake or a sea. If the five
littoral states (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, unique bio system of water goes through catastrophic activity from poachers…the
Iran, and Azerbaijan) agree to define the Caspian population of Caspian sturgeon and other species are on the verge of extinction. If not for
as a lake, then they would share an equal portion the efforts of Kazakhstan’s Border Guards, this would have long ago become a fact…
and resources, including access to oilfields in In 2014 the border guards detained 60 violators of the state border and more than 40
the Caspian seabed. If they reach an agreement
small ships. In comparison to previous years – this is a reduction in the number of
to define it as a sea, then it would be divided up
offenders. This is a result of complex application of force and equipping the coastal force.
based on each state’s coastline, which would give
Kazakhstan a significant share of the Caspian and
access to resources. In 2014 the five governments
reached an agreement that allows each of them to patrol a section of the
Caspian 15 miles out from their respective coastlines. The focus of the
photos is how the Kazakhstan’s Border Guards deal with poachers in
the Caspian, while offering a more in-depth look at how the detachment
operates and a few of its capabilities.

It is well known that poachers are a problem in the Caspian, but

the steps that the Kazakh Border Guards have taken to deal with the
problem and the fact that even though poachers’ ships are impounded,
they often wind up back in use with the same crew because of a lack
of prosecution and other legal loopholes for offenders and owners of
the ships have not always been known. More importantly, the ships
and helicopters shown in the photos appear to be as well armed as
the country’s Navy, except for the Kazakh Navy’s recent acquisition
of a rocket-artillery ship. One of the photo’s captions notes how the Kazakh Naval Force emblem. Source: Wikipedia,
detachment recently acquired the armed variants of the Mi-8 transport
helicopter. The photos of the Border Guards apprehending and in
pursuit of poachers do not suggest that they are going up against armed
groups. The author photographed warning shots being fired from a
ship to prevent poachers from fleeing, and violent resistance has been
mentioned as an issue in the past, though no major incidents have been
reported. Ultimately, the Border Guards’ capability to use force in the
Caspian appears to be increasing alongside that of the country’s Navy
(see: June 2014 OE Watch, “The Growth of Kazakhstan’s Navy).
End OE Watch Commentary (Stein)

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The Impact of Indian Security Cooperation in Central Asia 18 March 2015

“Four years ago 20 of our soldiers went to the city of Nahar in India in the framework of bilateral cooperation”

OE Watch Commentary: The governments of

Source: Jumasheva, Aida. “Кыргызстанский спецназ поделился опытом с
Central Asia conduct the majority of their security
индийскими коллегами (Kyrgyzstan’s special forces shared experiences with Indian
cooperation activity with Russia, the US, and China,
colleagues),” Vecherniy Bishkek, 18 March 2015, http://www.vb.kg/doc/306760_
but, as the accompanying article shows, India has kyrgyzstanskiy_specnaz_podelilsia_opytom_s_indiyskimi_kollegami.html
occasionally been involved in the region through
various efforts. The article reports on a recent joint
exercise between Kyrgyzstan and India that involved Kyrgyzstan’s special forces shared experiences with Indian colleagues
special forces units from both sides in a scenario of
The special forces unit “Scorpion” is continuing with the anti-terrorism exercise
combating a terrorist group in mountainous terrain.
This scenario is what the government of Kyrgyzstan “Kanzhar-2015” on a base in the city of Tokmok. Around 50 special forces soldiers
sees as one of its biggest threats to security, and it from India are participating with them…“…Four years ago 20 of our soldiers went to
is similar to the majority of joint exercises Kyrgyz the city of Nahar in India in the framework of bilateral cooperation…In particular, we
forces have conducted for over ten years, but it is teach (them) combat conditions in the mountains, in addition to medical training in
worth looking at why Indian forces participated in stressful conditions.” – said the unit’s commander Col. Talantbek Talipov.
an exercise like this and what Kyrgyzstan might get
…The main difficulty for the Indian soldiers became the weather conditions…
out of it.
The Indian soldiers received a huge experience of carrying out fighting in snowy
The bulk of India’s past security cooperation in the mountains…“…your forces serve in difficult conditions…You have pretty modern
region has been with Tajikistan, where the Indian
equipment and weapons…,” said Indian Sgt. Narendera.
government assisted in refurbishing the Ayni Airbase
outside of Dushanbe in the 2000s and a hospital on …the material and equipment of “Scorpion” allowed it to carry out the exercise with
the Tajik-Afghan border for wounded members of the minimal cost. According to the deputy chief the country’s armed forces, Janybek
Northern Alliance during the Afghan Civil War. This Kaparov, 290,000 Som (around $4650) was spent. These costs were for the purchase
is in addition to a less publicized joint exercise India of fuel and provisions for the guests…
conducted with Tajikistan in 2003 and Tajik officers
in attendance at Indian military academies since
the late 1990s, though how many have continued to attend is unknown.
The article mentions how the Indian and Kyrgyz militaries conducted a
joint exercise in India four years ago, though it does not mention how
some Kyrgyz officers have been in academies in India, reportedly to learn
English. It has been widely believed that India’s continued interest in
Central Asian is related to the situation in Afghanistan and the subsequent
effect actions there have on Pakistan. While this security cooperation may
benefit India in that regard, Kyrgyzstan has its own goals in working with
multiple partners.

In November 2013 Kyrgyz forces conducted an exercise similar to this

recent one with members from the General Staff of Turkey’s Armed Forces.
That exercise was one of the largest to take place between Kyrgyzstan
and Turkey as part of a bilateral security partnership dating back to the
1990s. There could certainly be a benefit for Kyrgyz forces (including
special operations units) to learn additional tactics, but the exercise
might ultimately open the door for additional cooperation to the level that
Tajikistan had prior to renegotiating the lease of the Ayni Airbase to Russia.
It was believed that Tajikistan utilized its partnership with India as leverage
against Russia in order to gain a better compensation deal for use of Ayni.
Kyrgyzstan does not currently have the same level of security cooperation
with India that Tajikistan did, but if a stronger partnership were to develop,
it could enable the Kyrgyz government to follow a similar path. End OE
Para Commandos insignia.
Watch Commentary (Stein) Source: Wikipedia

OE Watch May 2015 81