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CH 04 Ex 2

This document discusses using a 3 period weighted moving average to forecast demand. It provides an example of applying the technique using 12 periods of demand data and 3 weights. The summary calculates the forecast for each period, finds the errors between actual and forecasted demand, and provides error analysis metrics including mean absolute deviation and mean squared error to evaluate the forecast accuracy.

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114 views

CH 04 Ex 2

This document discusses using a 3 period weighted moving average to forecast demand. It provides an example of applying the technique using 12 periods of demand data and 3 weights. The summary calculates the forecast for each period, finds the errors between actual and forecasted demand, and provides error analysis metrics including mean absolute deviation and mean squared error to evaluate the forecast accuracy.

Uploaded by

anon_2139178
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Chapter 4: Example 2

Forecasting Weighted moving averages 3 period moving average


Enter Foreca
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in
INCREASING
INCREASING order
order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom. 35
30
Data Error analysis 25
Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared 20

Value
Jan 10 1 15
Feb 12 2 10
Mar 13 3 5
Apr 16 12.2 3.8 3.8 14.7 0
May 19 14.3 4.7 4.7 21.8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Jun 23 17.0 6.0 6.0 36.0 Time
Jul 26 20.5 5.5 5.5 30.3
Aug 30 23.8 6.2 6.2 38.0
Sep 28 27.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
Oct 18 28.3 -10.3 10.3 106.8
Nov 16 23.3 -7.3 7.3 53.8
Dec 14 18.7 -4.7 4.7 21.8
Total 4.3 49.0 323.3
Average 0.5 5.4 35.9
Bias MAD MSE
SE 6.8
Next period 15.3333333
Forecasting
35
30
25
20
Value

Demand
15
Forecast
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time

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