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Solution:: D Disease D No Disease

The document uses a tree diagram to calculate the probability that someone tests positive for a disease given they have the disease. It finds that the probability of a negative test result is 31/31 and the probability someone tests positive and has the disease is 0.05. Using the information that the total probability of a positive test is 0.08, it determines the probability of testing positive given someone has the disease is 0.714.

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15 views

Solution:: D Disease D No Disease

The document uses a tree diagram to calculate the probability that someone tests positive for a disease given they have the disease. It finds that the probability of a negative test result is 31/31 and the probability someone tests positive and has the disease is 0.05. Using the information that the total probability of a positive test is 0.08, it determines the probability of testing positive given someone has the disease is 0.714.

Uploaded by

SN
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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solution:

let D  disease ; and D  no disease


tree diagram at left has all the given information,
where x  P  neg D  and y  P  pos D 

the question asks: given someone has the disease


what is the probability that they test positive?
that is, find P  pos D  - which is labelled y in the tree diagram above

0.9 30 1
find x: 0.93x  0.9  x  ; thus 1  x 
0.93 31 31
1
then P  D  pos   0.93    0.03
 31 

tt’s given that 8% of all tests give a positive result; thus, P  D  pos   P  D  pos   0.08
since P  D  pos   0.03 , then P  D  pos   0.05

0.05 5
it follows that 0.07 y  0.05  y   0.714
0.07 7


therefore, P pos D   5
7
 0.714

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