Running Head: WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.

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Wildfire Trends in the Western U.S

Global Warming plays a strong factor in wildfires in the Western US. Temperatures are rising,

causing spring to arrive early, drying the land sooner than expected. Wildfires are happening more

frequently and are lasting longer than usual. Climate projections suggest less snow and more rain for

many regions of North America. Wet areas are going to be getting wetter, while dry areas are going to

be getting dryer.

Global warming has a measurable effect on the process known as the water cycle. It’s changing

the amount, distribution, timing, and the quality of available water. A warmer climate brings Spring

early, causing the land to dry up quicker. Because of this, fires are able to start sooner and last much

longer. According to a research paper Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire

Activity, published by A. L. Westerling and colleagues, “rising temperatures combined with early

snowmelt are contributing to large forest fires in areas that have infrequently experience natural fires,

and in high elevation Rocky Mountain forests where fire has been largely unaffected by other human

activities.” Westerling also notes that forests in these relatively wet areas of the American West rely on

water from snow melt. As these areas dry out sooner due to early springs, they have been extremely

sensitive to modest increases in temperature.

Forests are experiencing larger and more frequent fires. “When fires become a more repeat

occurrence, how does this affect ecosystems? It is a lot harder for species to adapt by migration when

humans have fragmented the landscape with development, and at the same time we have accelerated

the rate of climate change,” Westerling adds.

(Figure 1) According to the article Hotter Years, More Fires, that was published June 28th, 2016

on climatecentral.org, the number of fires has increased three times than in the 1970s. The article
Running Head: WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.S 2

states, “this intense activity is indicative of a growing trend in Western wildfires linked to changes in the

climate. Spring and summer temperatures

have been rising across the West, and

mountain snowpack has been melting

earlier. Taken together, these changes are

creating more days where forests and

grasslands are dried out and ready to

Figure -Source: NCEI Climate at a Glance (spring and summer
burn.”
temperature) Climate Central analysis of U.S. Forest Service
Records (fires)

Charcoal records show that global fire activity has decreased in frequency since the 1920s, likely

because of better wildfire management practices. Fire suppression techniques have helped decrease

global wildfire rates, but the downward trend is set to reverse due to anthropogenic climate change.

Annual temperatures in the western US are likely to rise between 1 degree Celsius and 8 degrees Celsius

by the end of the 21st century, according to the climate simulations based on the moderate emission

scenario developed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Another byproduct of forest fires includes an effect called “feedback,” which is caused by

burning trees releasing carbon directly into the atmosphere and burned areas retaining less carbon in

their soils. It’s important to understand climate change feedback because feedback processes may

amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing (the difference between sunlight absorbed by the
Running Head: WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.S 3

Earth and energy radiated back to space) and play an important part in determining the climate

sensitivity and future climate state.

(Figure 2) The 2018 wildfire season was the deadliest and most destructive wildfire season on

record in California, with a total of 8,527 fires burning an area of 1,893,913 acres, the largest amount of

burned acreage recorded in a fire season, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire

Protection and the National Interagency Fire Center. The fires caused over $3.5 billion, including 1.7

billion in fire suppression costs. You can visit the EcoWest website for an interactive visualization of

wildfires in the U.S. from 2003 to present day.

In mid-July to August 2018, a series of large wildfires

Figure Satellite image of wildfires burning
erupted across California, including the destructive Carr Fire Norther California and Southern Oregon,
August 1, 2018 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Californ
and Mendocino complex Fire. Northern California declared a ia_wildfires

national disaster on August 4, 2018 due to the extensive

wildfires burning there.

Different factors caused the 2018 California wildfire

season; an increased amount of natural fuel and compounding

atmospheric conditions linked to global warming led to the

series of fires. Even so, humans have been recorded as the

primary cause of fires in California. These include intentional and accidental, like arson, campfires,

fireworks, powerlines, and others.

If you visit the NIFC website, https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm, you can view daily

updates on fires in the US. As of April 26, 2019, there are 5 states reporting fires, Arizona, Alabama,

Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, and Oklahoma. There are 9 active fires, not including fires within

complexes. 6.991 acres have been burned so far, with 3 fires reported as contained. You can also view
Running Head: WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.S 4

yearly statistics; from 1/1/18 – 4/26/19 there have been 9,532 fires covering 220,396 acres. “Large fire

activity continues in the Southern Area where nine large fires have burned over 5,000 acres. Currently,

2019 has had half as many fires as the 10-year average and is well below in acres burned.”

https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

There’s also a weather update stating, “A slight cooling trend with scattered showers will occur

as a weak cold front moves across the Rockies into the Great Plains. Warm and dry conditions will

continue across California and should lead to additional curing of the fine fuels. A strong system will

move south from Northern British Columbia along the Divide early Saturday and will bring significantly

cooler temperatures to the northwestern third of the country as it carves out a trough of low pressure

over most of the West. Snow levels will fall to the lower slopes and possibly even the valley floor in

some locations across the Northern Rockies Saturday night. Scattered showers and cooler temperatures

will be possible across Southern California and Arizona on Monday as a strengthening low-pressure

system moves east from Baja California. Areas of critical fire weather conditions may be possible across

New Mexico and West Texas as the system approaches and increases winds. However, the window of

critical conditions will be short since the passing system will bring precipitation to the area Monday

night and Tuesday.”

According to an article on futurity.org, Wildfires will likely get worse in the western U.S.,

published February 28, 2018 by U. Arizona - If temperatures continue to rise globally, we will most

certainly see more, longer lasting, and deadly wildfires. The large fire seasons are likely to occur more

often each year. 2018 saw a very large fire season, and it’s projected to get worse. “We used 34 years of

climate data to calibrate area burned in 1,500 grid cells across western North America, so we could

capture the different ways that seasonal climate regulates fire in different regions,” says Don Falk, a

professor in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment in the University of Arizona’s College
 Running Head: WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.S 5

of Agriculture and Life Sciences.

Figure 3Projected change in annual area burned for the period 2010–2039, with red colors indicating areas with the greatest
increase in area burned annually in wildfires, and dark blue the least. (Credit: U. Arizona)

References

2018 California wildfires. (2019, April 23). Retrieved from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_California_wildfires

Climate change and ecosystems. (2019, April 21). Retrieved from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_ecosystems#Forests

Dennison, P. E., Brewer, S. C., Arnold, J. D., & Moritz, M. A. (2014, April 25). Large wildfire trends in the western

United States, 1984–2011. Retrieved from

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059576

More, bigger wildfires burning western U.S., study shows. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://news.agu.org/press-

release/more-bigger-wildfires-burning-western-u-s-study-shows/
 Running Head: WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN U.S 6

Water and Climate Change. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-

impacts/impacts/water-and-climate-change.html

Western US wildfires in an increasingly warming climate. (2016, May 25). Retrieved from

https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.5.4021/full/

Western US wildfires in an increasingly warming climate. (2016, May 25). Retrieved from

https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.5.4021/full/

Wildfires will likely get worse in the western U.S. (2018, February 28). Retrieved from

https://www.futurity.org/wildfires-western-north-america-1690852/