Vietnam National University - Ho Chi Minh City International University School of Business
Vietnam National University - Ho Chi Minh City International University School of Business
INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
ﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣﻣ
MEMBERS
TRẦN UYÊN PHƯƠNG-BAFNIU16121
LÂM TRẦN BẢO THY-BAFNIU16020
PHẠM QUANG MINH-BAFNIU16122
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Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. 3
I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 4
1. Literature Review ............................................................................................................ 4
2. Objectives........................................................................................................................ 4
3. Methodology ................................................................................................................... 4
4. Data ................................................................................................................................ 4
II. TESTING FOR MULTIPLE REGRESSION......................................................... 5
1. Regression model ............................................................................................................ 5
2. Testing for estimating Standard errors ........................................................................... 6
a) Testing for Multicollinearity ............................................................................................................... 6
b) Testing for Ramsay Regression Equation Specification Error Test..................................................... 6
c) Testing for Heteroskedasticity test ...................................................................................................... 7
d) Dealing with heteroskedasticity test by using weighted least squares(OPENESS) ............................. 7
III. THE NON-NORMALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN KIEUHOI AND GDP
GROWTH ........................................................................................................................ 8
1. Regression model ............................................................................................................ 8
2. Testing for estimating Standard errors ........................................................................... 9
a) Testing for Ramsay Regression Equation Specification Error test ...................................................... 9
b) Testing for Multicollinearity ............................................................................................................. 10
c) Testing for Heteroskedasticity Test ................................................................................................... 10
d) Dealing with Heteroskedasticity test by using Weighted Least Squares(OPENESS) ....................... 11
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The team would like to express our deepest thanks to lecturer of Econometrics with Finance
Application Mrs. Phuong Anh for guidance and encouragement us to do this wonderful project
on the topic Impact of foreign capital inflows on GDP growth.
The group also thankful to members for the cooperation, efforts and sincere suggestions to
complete this project.
Given the limited time and experience of the group, the project cannot avoid shortcomings. My
team looking forward to receiving the advice and comments from lecturer in order to my group
can supplement and broaden knowledge.
Sincerely
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I. INTRODUCTION
1. Literature Review
Developing countries always lack of capital to promote economic growth. During the past
decades, many national depend on foreign capital inflows miraculously developed as Korea,
Japan, Singapore. My team choose topic to re-examine the influence of foreign capital on
growth rate in developing countries. Besides, my group test the impact of other factors such as
trade openness on the movement of foreign capital in developing countries. Research helps to
broaden knowledge about econometrics with financial application and apply it to analysis
economic phenomena.
2. Objectives
- Testing the impact of FDI on the growth rate of GDP.
- Check the impact of KIEUHOI on the growth rate of GDP.
- Check the impact of trade openness on GDP growth rate
- Check the impact of inflation on the growth rate of GDP
3. Methodology
- Using data from World Bank sources on criteria representing growth, foreign capital
and setting targets only shows the proportion of foreign capital in GDP.
- The use of a multivariate linear regression model on Eviews to analyze the relationship
between factors.
4. Data
- GDP growth: This is a measure of salary growth of GDP (gross domestic product) of
105 developed countries in 2016 and 2017. Data are collected from secondary data
sources from the World Bank
- Inflation: This is a measure of the inflation rate of 105 developing countries in 2016.
Data are collected from secondary data from the World Bank.
- Openness (Trade / GDP): A measure of the proportion of trade turnover in the GDP
structure. It is measured by taking the value of Trade divided by GDP. All data are
collected in 2016 and 2017 from World Bank sources . This is a variable that represents
trade openness.
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II. TESTING FOR MULTIPLE REGRESSION
1. Regression model
Dependent
Variable:GROWTH_GDP
Method: Least quares
Sample: 1 105
Included observations: 105
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3.661088 0.256118 14.29452 0.0000
FDI -5.70E-13 3.22E-12 -0.176964 0.8599
INFLATION -0.087959 0.032228 -2.729306 0.0075
LKIEUHOI 0.334119 0.106327 3.142383 0.0022
OPENNESS -0.009827 0.003269 -3.006317 0.0033
R-squared 0.190593 Mean dependent var 3.030179
Adjusted R-squared 0.158216 S.D. dependent var 2.047533
S.E. of regression 1.878586 Akaike info criterion 4.145364
Sum squared resid 352.9086 Schwarz criterion 4.271743
Log likelihood -212.6316 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.196575
F-statistic 5.886801 Durbin-Watson stat 2.094208
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000270
- When foreign direct investment increased by $ 1 billion, the GDP growth rate
decreased by 5.7.10-13% under the condition that other factors remained unchanged.
- When inflation increases by 1%, GDP growth rate decreases by 0.0880% under the
condition that other factors remain unchanged.
- When remittances increase by US $ 1 billion, GDP growth rate increases to 0.3341%
under the condition that other factors remain unchanged.
- The trade openness increased by 1%, the GDP growth rate decreased by 0.0098%
under the condition that other factors remained unchanged.
- When considering the partial impact of each independent variable on the GDP growth
variable, we can conclude:
- The variable INFLATION, LKIEUHOI, OPENNESS has a causal effect on GDP
growth at the 5% significance level.
- The FDI variable has no effect on GDP growth at the 5% significance level and can
be removed from the regression model.
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- As Probability (F-statistic) is less than at the 5% significant level. Hence, all 4
independent variables have the same effect on GDP growth rate at the 5%
significance level.
Variance
Inflation factors
Sample: 1 105
Included observations: 105
Coefficient Uncentered Centered
Variable Variance VIF VIF
C 0.065597 1.951678 NA
FDI 1.04E-23 1.247879 1.117204
INFLATION 0.001039 1.328246 1.012781
LKIEUHOI 0.011305 1.140795 1.136170
OPENESS 1.07E-05 1.492760 1.024065
From the table above with the test of variance inflation factors (VIF), the results of the Centered
VIF column show that both independent variables have results less than 10% significant level,
implying that all four independent variables have no multicollinearity.
Based on the F-statistic having 2 degrees of freedom we can assume that Stata included two
higher order terms of the fitted values in auxiliary regressions. With an F-value of 0.0507 and
a corresponding p-value of 0.0507 , the RESET test results imply that we cannot reject the
null hypothesis that the model has no omitted variables. In other words, we do not find strong
evidence that the chosen linear functional form of the model is incorrect.
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c) Testing for Heteroskedasticity test
According to the results of the above table, we see that nR2 = 19,6230 has a corresponding p-
value probability of 0.0006, less than the 10% significance level, so we reject H0: the model
has Heteroskedasticity errors.In the other words, the regression model of GDP_growth in
inflation, kieu_hoi and trade_gdp have the Heteroskedasticity errors
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Hence,
1. Regression model
Dependent
Variable:
GROWTH_GDP
Method: Least
quares
Sample: 1 105
Included observations: 105
Coefficie
Variable nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
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Regression equation
Comments
- When direct foreign investment increased 1 billion USD, then GDP growth rate
decreased 1,43.10-12% in the context that other factors remained unchanged.
- When inflation increased 1% then GDP growth rate decreased 0.086650% in the
context that other factors remained unchanged.
- When KIEU HOI increased 1 billion USD then GDP growth rate increased
0,2872805% in the context that other factors remained unchanged.
- When trade openness increased 1% then GDP growth rate decreased 0,008892% in
the context that other factors unchanged.
- When considering a partial impact of independent variables on GDPGROWTH
variables, we can conclude
- INFLATION, KIEU_HOI, KIEUHOI2, OPENESS have a causal effect on
GDPGROWTH variable at 5% significant level.
- FDI variable have no effect on GDPGROWTH at the 5% significant level so that we
could remove this variables from regression model.
- As Probability (F-statistic) less than at the 5% significant level. Hence, all 4
independent variables have same effect on GDP growth rate at the 5% significant
level.
Probabilit
Value df y
t-statistic 1.564726 98 0.1209
F-statistic 2.448367 (1, 98) 0.1209
Likelihood ratio 2.591017 1 0.1075
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From the above table, p-value= 0,1209 more than at the 5% significant level so we accept null
hypothesis H0: the model is not Ramsay RESET test . It means that regression model of
GDPGROWTH according to FDI, INFLATION, KIEU_HOI, KIEUHOI2, OPENESS have no
Ramsay RESET errors.
C 0.097355 2.917199 NA
FDI 9.86E-24 1.193368 1.068401
INFLATION 0.001032 1.328641 1.013082
KIEU_HOI 0.007084 8.770976 5.942650
KIEUHOI2 1.34E-05 6.469537 5.782118
OPENESS 1.07E-05 1.501755 1.030236
From the above table, Centered VIF less than 10 at the 5% so we accept H0: the model is no
Multicollinearity. In the other words, the regression model of GDPGROWTH according to
FDI, INFLATION, KIEU_HOI, KIEUHOI2, OPENESS are not Multicollinearity
According to the result of the above table, we recognize that nR2=18,52771 has p-value=
0,0024 less than at the 10% significant level. Therefore, we reject null hypothesis H0: the
model has Heteroskedasticity errors. It means that GDPGROWTH according to FDI,
INFLATION, KIEU_HOI, KIEUHOI2, OPENESS has Heteroskedasticity errors.
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d) Dealing with Heteroskedasticity test by using Weighted Least
Squares(OPENESS)
Dependent Variable: GROWTH_GDP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/18/18 Time: 20:22
Sample: 1 105
Included observations: 105
Weighting series: 1/OPENESS
Weight type: Inverse standard deviation (EViews default
scaling)
Coefficie
Variable nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 3.694179 0.635135 5.816369 0.0000
INFLATION -0.172077 0.046867 -3.671569 0.0004
KIEUHOI2 -0.034930 0.010256 -3.405844 0.0010
KIEU_HOI 0.663218 0.156320 4.242691 0.0000
OPENESS 0.006551 0.021162 0.309542 0.7576
FDI 3.21E-12 4.13E-12 0.777073 0.4390
- FDI variables and OPENNESS variables have no causal effect on GDP growth at the
5% significance level.
- Turning INFLATION, the variable KIEU_HOI and the variable KIEUHOI2 have a
causal effect on GDP growth at the 5% significance level.
We see that p-value of the variable KIEUHOI2 is 0.001 less than 0.005 so there is the
non-normality relationship between KIEUHOI and GDP growth rate. The graph of the
model has inverted U shape. The coefficient of the regression model of KIEUHOI2 less
than 0, thus, the first KIEUHOI increased the rate of economic growth, then reaching to
extreme point, KIEUHOI reduced economic growth.
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IV. IN CONCLUSION
- The independent variables illustrate that GDP growth rate has statistical significant at
the 5% significant level is INFLATION, KIEUHOI. The independent FDI and trade
openness have no statistical significant at the 5% significant level
- With the result from regression model, we see that INFLATION has negative impact
on economic growth. On the other hand, the proportion of foreign capital inflows-
represented KIEUHOI has positive impact on economic growth. Thus, there is the
nonreality relationship between GDP growth and KIEUHOI.
- OLS regression model with 4 independent variables has data collected from 105
countries in 2016 – assumed to be non-endogeneity. After testing for multicollinearity
and Heteroskedasticity errors, dealing with heteroskedasticity test did not violate
hypothesis and explain for independent variables.
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V. REFRENCES
GDP growth, World Bank Data
https://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
&country
Foreign direct investment, net inflows( BoP, Current USD), World Bank Data
https://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD&
country
Inflation, World Bank Data
https://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG&
country
Trade(% GDP), World Bank Data
https://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS&cou
ntry
Personal remittances, and received, World Bank (current USD)
https://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT&
country
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VI. APPENDIX
Country Industrialized/Developing
openess kieu hoi inflation growth GDP FDI
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Country prischool
openess kieu hoi inflation growth GDP FDI
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