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Predictive Analytics: Basic Knowledge of Math and Statistics. Ability To Apply MS Excel For Analysis

The document outlines the curriculum for a 3 credit course on predictive analytics that introduces tools and techniques for making predictions about future events based on historical data, covering topics like time series analysis, regression, autoregressive integrated moving average models, and includes modules on data patterns, smoothing methods, regression, and forecasting applications. The course will be delivered through lectures and tutorials with exercises using real data, and will be assessed through continuous assessments, homework assignments, tests, and an end term examination.

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Harshit Verma
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74 views3 pages

Predictive Analytics: Basic Knowledge of Math and Statistics. Ability To Apply MS Excel For Analysis

The document outlines the curriculum for a 3 credit course on predictive analytics that introduces tools and techniques for making predictions about future events based on historical data, covering topics like time series analysis, regression, autoregressive integrated moving average models, and includes modules on data patterns, smoothing methods, regression, and forecasting applications. The course will be delivered through lectures and tutorials with exercises using real data, and will be assessed through continuous assessments, homework assignments, tests, and an end term examination.

Uploaded by

Harshit Verma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Annexure ‘CD – 01’

COURSE CURRICULUM

Course Title: PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Credit Units: 3


L T P/ SW/F TOTAL
Course Level: PG Course Code: CI 713 S W CREDIT
UNITS
Course Objectives: 2 1 0 0 3
 To understand tools and techniques to determine the probable future outcome of an event or a likelihood of a situation.
 Utilization of current and historical facts to make predictions about future events.
 Application of tools in functional and cross functional analysis of historical and transactional data.

Pre-requisites:
 Basic Knowledge of Math and Statistics.
 Ability to apply MS Excel for Analysis.

Course Contents/Syllabus:
Weightage (%)
Module I Introduction to Predictive Analytics 15%
Descriptors/Topics
 History, Need for Analytics, Types of Analytical Models, Choosing a Analytical Method, Steps in Analytics,
Computer Packages, Business Intelligence.
 Describing Data with Numerical Summaries, Displays of Numerical Information, Probability Distributions,
Sampling Distributions, Estimation, Inference from a Sample, Hypothesis Testing.

Module II Data Patterns and Smoothing Methods 35%


Descriptors/Topics
 Basic Predicting Notation, Time Series Data Patterns such as Random, Trend, Seasonal, Stationary and Cyclical
Data.
 Choosing a Predicting Technique, Empirical Evaluation of Predicting Methods, Measuring Predicting Error.
 Determining the Adequacy of a Predicting Technique.
 Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods- Naive Models, Simple Averages, Moving Averages, Double
Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing,
 Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend: Holt's Method, Exponential Smoothing Adjusted for Trend and
Seasonal Variation: Winters' Method.
 Decomposition Methods- Decomposition, Trend, Additional Trend Curves, Predicting Trend, Seasonality,
Seasonally Adjusted Data, Cyclical and Irregular Variations Predicting a Seasonal Time Series, The Census II
Decomposition Method.

Module III Simple and Multiple Regression Methods 25%


Descriptors/Topics
 Linear and Non Linear Model, Univariate, Bivariate and Multivariate Regressions.
 Multicollinearity, Autocorrelation, Durbin-Watson Test, Dummy Variables, Variable Transformations,
Prediction of a Future Response.
 Stochastic Processes- Some Basic Concepts, Stochastic Processes, Unit Root Stochastic Processes, Trend
Stationary and Difference Stationary Stochastic Processes.
 Integrated Stochastic Processes, Test of Stationarity, Unit Root Test, Transforming non Stationary Time Series,
Cointegration.
 Applications of models with R and Eviews

Module IV Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average 25%


Descriptors/Topics
 Autoregressive Models, Moving Average Models, Autoregressive Moving Average Models, Box-Jenkins
Methodology, Identification, Estimation, Diagnostic Checking, Prediction, Models for Seasonal Data,
Advantages and Disadvantages of AR/MA Models.
 Vector Autoregression- Methodology, Identification, Estimation, Diagnostic Checking, Prediction, Causality,
Vector Error Correction Model, Impulse Response.
 Exercises on real time data for application of above

Student Learning Outcomes: At the end of the course the students would be able to:
 Generate valuable and actionable insights from data.
 Use various computer software packages such as Excel, SPSS and R for analysis.

Pedagogy for Course Delivery:

The course will be delivered through lectures and tutorials. Exercises using live data would be conducted to enable students to have hands on
experience and develop the required skills for analysis
Assessment/ Examination Scheme:

Theory L/T (%) Lab/Practical/Studio (%) End Term Examination

100 0 70%

Theory Assessment (L&T):


Continuous Assessment/Internal Assessment End Term
Examination
Components (Drop CT P HA Attendance
down)

10 5 10 5 70%

Text Reading:

 John E. Hanke, Dean W. Wichern and Arthur G. Reitsch, “Business Forecasting”, Pearson Education Asia, Eighth Edition.
 Spyros Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright and Rob J. Hyndman, “Forecasting Methods and Applications”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Third Edition.
 D. N. Gujarati and Sangeetha, Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill, Fourth Edition.
 George E. P. Box, Gwilym M. Jenkins and Gregory C. Reinsel, “Time Series Analysis”, Pearson Education, Third Edition.
 Norman R. Draper and Harry Smith, “Applied Regression Analysis”, Third Edition.
 Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W., Introduction to Econometrics. Pearson Education Inc.
 Case: Forecasting Exchange Rate: A Time Series Analysis, The Journal of Economic Policy and Research. Vol. 5, No. 3. pp 77-105, 2010.
 Case: Variation of Temperature and Rainfall in India, International Journal of Advances in Engineering & Technology, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp.1803-1812,
2013.

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