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Principal Lead: Gabriel Okeowo

Research Team: Atiku Samuel, Ayomide Faleye, Olaniyi Olaleye, Oyebola

Agunloye, Thaddeus Jolayemi, Hafsat Ajia-Egbeyemi, Kehinde Obadare,
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© 2018

State of States
Disclaimer: This document has been produced by BudgIT to provide
information on budgets and public data issues. BudgIT hereby certifies that
all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our analytical
views that we believe are reliable and fact- based.

Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no

responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or for any views expressed
THE 2018 EDITION herein by BudgIT for actions taken as a result of information provided in this
Report.

www.yourbudgit.com
2018 Edition State of States 05

Executive Summary

Fiscal Sustainability Index Analysis was N287 billion; higher than its 2015 level of
N268.2 billion. In 2017, the state planned a
Rivers state sits on top of the Fiscal Sustainability recurrent expenditure spending of N305 billion or
Index due to its robust revenue profile and N25 billion monthly. With its IGR not expected to
manageable recurrent expenditure obligation. The grow significantly above N300 billion, and its
state’s actual revenue of N209.12 billion in 2017, share of FAAC revenue in the first six months of
when juxtaposed with its recurrent expenditure 2017 at N6.6 billion, Lagos is expected to meet
obligation of N141 billion in the same year, its recurrent expenditure obligations. However,
indicates Rivers is fiscally stable, and able to cover Lagos’ unusually high overhead costs and debts
its recurrent expenditure without borrowing. continue to weigh its revenue down.

Given that in 2018, recurrent expenditure is Our research also showed that Osun state is not
expected to fall to approximately N132 billion, at out of the woods yet as it still ranks 35 out of the
face value, the state should have no problems 36 states. We are extremely concerned about the
paying its way, going forward. Rivers is also one of poor fiscal management thinking in Cross River
Nigeria’s most vibrant, in terms of crude oil with its bogus budget plan of N1.3 trillion, which
deposits; this position comes with a significant severely weighed it down on the Index. The state’s
share of annual Federal Account Allocation inability to meet its recurrent expenditure
Committee (FAAC) allocations. obligations, its heavy debt profile and inefficient
IGR collection weighed seriously on the state.
Our analysis shows that increase in statutory
allocations, mainly guided by oil revenues, had a While the fiscal structure of states has improved
significant impact on the Index. Rivers, Bayelsa, on the back of increasing oil revenue, state
Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo and Ondo are among the governments need to tremendously embrace a
top ten states in our Index. We also see a high level of transparency and accountability,
commendable appearance by the states with low develop workable economic plans, take
expenditure outlay and sizeable debt burden such haircuts—especially on overheads—expand their
as Anambra, Enugu and Katsina. We also noticed IGR base and cut down on debt accumulation.
that Abia has tightened its recurrent projection,
providing it the opportunity to leap on our Internally Generated Revenue
sustainability rankings.
State governments and state-controlled entities
Lagos dropped from 2nd to 4th place on the Fiscal (local governments) collect and control ALL
Sustainability Index notwithstanding the state’s revenues generated from personal income tax,
fiscal advantage. Lagos’ Internally Generated property tax, road tax, radio and television tax,
Revenue (IGR), when compared with other states, among others. In 2017, Lagos state accounted for
is relatively high. Her IGR as at the end of 2016 approximately 35.86 percent of total IGR collected
2018 Edition State of States 06

by states, down from 2016 level of 37 percent. The total debt of Lagos state--the most indebted
Lagos, Ogun, Delta and Rivers lead in terms of state in Nigeria--rose from the 2014 level of
IGR uptake per capita. Collection efficiency in N456.8 billion to N813.04 billion in 2017,
Kano is abysmal but improving; despite its vast accounting for 18.08 percent of the total debt
market size, it could only collect N3,139 per head stock of state governments.
in 2017 up from N2,367 per head in 2016. Kwara
state’s per capita IGR uptake at N5,969 per head Index A
shows the state is aggressively mobilising funds.
Index A looks at the ability of states to meet their
On average, IGR uptake is N3,818 per head recurrent expenditure obligation with state-owned
across the states; it is only in 10 states that revenue like value added tax, 13 percent
collection efficiency is higher than the statewide derivation and IGR. In terms of weight, Index A
average. The least performing states include was assigned 35 percent weight as it was critical
Bauchi, Katsina, Borno, Kebbi and Yobe states. It that personnel and overheads (recurrent
is crucial for state governments to design expenditure) of government are covered with tax
innovative policies around tax collection, revenue and other associated revenue peculiar to
especially collection efficiency. the state like 13 percent derivation paid to oil-
producing states without resorting to borrowing.
Value Added Tax
While growing states IGR by widening the
Due to its market size, Lagos state tops in terms personal income tax net is ideally the path for most
of VAT revenue in the first six months of 2018. states, some may use indirect tax through
Lagos VAT revenue receipts between January increased Value Added Tax undertaking due to
and June 2018 averaged N8.033 billion monthly socio-religious norms, political pressure and from
up from the average of N6.38 billion in the first six the policy front adopted in 1991. States with
months of 2017, significantly higher than Kano’s. natural resources like oil and solid minerals should
explore those resources given the socio-
Nasarawa, Bayelsa, Gombe and Ebonyi trail the economic status of most Nigerians at this time as
pack. It is evident in our analysis that many states it gets increasingly difficult to tax already heavily
lack the formal structures for the payment VAT. taxed people.
Twenty-nine out of 36 states got less than N1
billion monthly, despite huge differential in Alternatively, some states may keep operating
population. costs (like personnel and overhead costs) low to
free up more spending for social and economic
Debt Stock infrastructure. States like Rivers, Lagos, Delta,
Bayelsa and Edo sit on top of Index A.
Total debt stock of Nigerian states has increased
significantly from the 2012 level of N1.79 trillion Index B
to N4.49 trillion in 2017. With increased inability
to meet recurrent expenditure obligations and Equally important is the states’ ability to cover all
increased pressure, most states resort to more recurrent expenditure obligations without
debt uptake. Total debt profile of the states rose resorting to borrowing. Index B which was
from the 2014 level of N2.13 trillion to 2017 level assigned a weight substance of 50 percent looks
of N4.49 trillion. at states’ ability to meet its recurrent expenditure
obligation using all revenue sources. Interestingly,
about 16 states could cover the recurrent
2018 Edition State of States 07

expenditure obligation without borrowing funds--a Stakeholders, including citizens, investors, civil
marked improvement over 2017. society organisations and development partners
are now talking more about the usefulness of the
In the first six months of 2017, only 4 states could key budget information as a planning instrument.
effectively meet their recurrent expenditure
obligation without borrowing, selling assets States need to look beyond rhetorics and commit
or/and donor funds. States like Kano, Bayelsa, to a reduction in their operating costs, including
Edo, Rivers and Delta sit on top of the Index. significantly slashing unreasonable overheads
while freeing up more spending for social and
Index C economic infrastructure. States will need to link
future borrowing to sustainable projects, which
Index C focuses on states’ ability to manage their can pay back the capital cost of its current loans
debts sustainably. It examines the extent to which and improve the overall income profile of the state.
today’s gross revenue can service outstanding
debts. Index C was assigned a weight of 15 Economic planners will need to lift states from a
percent. States with low debts like Anambra, perpetual cycle of borrowing, work to improve tax
Yobe, Sokoto and Katsina sit on top of Index C. collection efficiencies and realign budgeting with
statewide plans.
Conclusion
Significant investment is needed to improve the
States will need to focus on boosting IGR overall economic performance at the state level,
collection and simultaneously slowing down on which invariably could create jobs that feed into
borrowing. It is also important to rein in recurrent states’ IGR. Improved spending is also critical for
expenditure and re-work the budgeting system. If value-added tax revenue. Opportunities in
this is done, states can increase their budget aquaculture, agriculture, manufacturing, trade,
performance as well as pay backlogs of civil logistics and tourism abound across states, but it
servants’ salaries, whilst grappling with a ghost seems many states lack the rigour and foresight to
worker problem. explore them.

Questions on the credibility and usefulness of Only then, will state budgets perform for the
budgets are being asked, particularly at the state people; only then, will states become fiscally
level. Some states, like Cross River, have huge sustainable.
expenditure size which is not commensurate with
their revenue reality.
South West
2018 Edition State of States 09

OSUN OYO OGUN

HQCF

COCOA HIGH-QUALITY FROZEN CHICKEN

CASSAVA FLOUR
Oyo could become a net Ogun is known for its poultry
As at 2016, Nigeria is the fifth farming, and must capitalize
exporter of HQCF and achieve
largest producer of cocoa on its connection to Kwara
export figures of $3bn. Also,
after Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Niger by rail and road, to
Oyo’s ability to get its Ikere dam
Indonesia and Cameroon. transform itself into a
functional, could effectively give
the state a seat at the table of prominent supplier and
Nigeria is presently targeting exporter of poultry products.
major power hubs in Nigeria.
cocoa production of 500,000
This dam simultaneously holds
tonnes per year, and Fresh chicken shipments
the likelihood of significant
earnings of about $1bn. Osun worldwide amounted to
revenue from aquaculture, as
could choose to become a $5.9bn in 2017, while the
frozen freshwater shrimps
major player in the field. value of frozen chicken
generated $1.8bn in export sales
in 2017; a 21.4% rise from 2016. exports continues to be much
higher, at $16.1bn.

Population

South West
Export Potential

38,257,260
2016 Estimate (CBN)

EKITI ONDO LAGOS

CERAMICS COCOA & TECHNOLOGY &

ASPHALT SHINGLE BIODESEL

A recent study estimates the The state’s water body

In 2017, ceramics products global market for asphalt simultaneously holds huge
bought globally amounted to shingles will exceed $10bn by Aquaculture potentials.
$52.7bn. 2022, with the North America
market expected to remain
dominant, and bring in sales of Lagos could potentially
Ekiti could leverage on its become a net exporter of
roughly $6bn.
abundant laterite and clay algae biodiesel - becoming
deposits to become a significant It is believed that there are over a significant player in a
player in the sector, and earn 42.47 billion tonnes of bitumen global industry projected to
approximately $1.2bn from around Ondo - an important be worth $209.42bn by
ceramic sales. industrial feedstock for the 2021.
asphalt shingles industry, the
State could become a major
player.
2018 Edition State of States 10

Ogun State Sustainability

Rank 8
Authorities may develop and/or adjust housing policies to draw in residents,
especially those working in Lagos, and could make additional revenue from
land sales, mortgage schemes and property development.

In 2018, Ogun state is planning to spend coupled with an increase in Domestic debt from
N343.9bn, as against the N221.1bn budgeted in N58.38bn in 2013 to N106.53bn in 2017,
2017. Ogun’s debt servicing costs could create a big
dent in its future revenue prospects.
Investment drives have maintained and attracted
some 100 industries to the state in the last two Though IGR grew at an annual average rate of
years. This is reflected in its IGR rates, which more 59.56%, Domestic debt is also accelerating, at
than doubled from N34.6bn in 2015, to N73bn in about 17.58% every year.
2016. In 2017, IGR amounted to N74.84bn,
growing at an annual average of 59.56% between To guarantee the full implementation of the vast
2013 and 2017. infrastructure projects contained in its budget,
Ogun state must strike the delicate balance of
When compared with its population, Ogun state boosting IGR and taming debt.
collected N14,343 per person, with IGR
contributing approximately 74.08% to Total One place to begin is the cases of abandoned
revenue in 2017. projects such as seen in the Akute-Alagbole area.
Opportunities still exist as about 36.7% of Ogun
However, in that year, the state’s Recurrent state’s households reside in rented apartments,
expenditure projection of N102bn was higher according to 2013 figures from the National
than the Actual revenue received, which was Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
recorded as N101.21bn.
Authorities may develop and/or adjust housing
The figures suggest Ogun’s debt is slowly policies to draw in residents, especially those
assuming proportions at a pace that should worry working in Lagos, and could make additional
the custodians of its purse strings. revenue from land sales, mortgage schemes and
property development.
With an External debt overhang of $107.5mn as
at December 2017 (from $103.4mn in 2016),
2018 Edition State of States 11

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N2.94bn N3.24bn N3.20bn

N3.07bn N3.02bn N3.31bn

Ogun State
Gateway State Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N56.8bn 2013 N13.8bn 2013 N70.6bn
2014 N48.9bn 2014 N17.5bn 2014 N66.4bn
2015 N34.3bn 2015 N34.6bn 2015 N68.9bn
2016 N20.1bn 2016 N72.9bn 2016 N93.1bn
2017 N26.2bn 2017 N74.8bn 2017 N101.0bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 66.57%

NET FAAC 33.43%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.06bn N1.07bn Nil N6.24bn

>

N9.37bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N6.82bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N106.5bn $107.4m
Domestic External
N3.27bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N10.09bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Revenue Recurrent Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) (Income) Expenditure 2013 N77.0bn
> -N0.72bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N89.9bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall
2015 N96.3bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N166.9bn
N9.37bn* N10.09bn* 2017 N139.5bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 12

Frozen Ogun State

Gateway State

Chicken

Ogun must find a middle ground between enter into agreements between the Nigerian
Expenditure versus IGR, and improve its tax Railway Corporation and interested private sector
collection efforts. The most obvious opportunity stakeholders, to procure railcars that ease the
here lies in the fact that about 36.7% of transport of goods, individuals and services, for
households reside in rented apartments, added revenue.
according to 2013 figures from the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The Olokola Free Trade Zone, if speedily
executed, could also become an industrial
The state should also explore policies that could enclave, while a new deep-sea port could propel
revamp the lagging agricultural sector. the state several notches up the fiscal ladder.

Ogun is known for its poultry farming, and must Being home to almost 30 tertiary institutions is
capitalize on its connection to Kwara and Niger by one reason for Ogun to strategically work towards
rail and road, to transform itself into a prominent becoming a knowledge hub; the state stands to
supplier and exporter of poultry products. benefit from the economic impact students will
bring to the local economy.
Fresh chicken shipments worldwide amounted to
$5.9bn in 2017, while the value of frozen chicken Ogun may however need to invest more on
exports continues to be much higher, at $16.1bn. security and encourage schools to expand, as the
Nigerian university system can only take in about
Overall, the value of fresh chicken exports by 500,000 candidates per year, despite figures
country increased by an average of 11.6% since showing that 1.7million people sought admission
2013, when fresh chicken meat shipments were into tertiary institutions nationwide in 2017.
valued at $5.3bn. In contrast, total frozen chicken
meat shipments fell by 10.8%, over the same As a big player in cement production (where
five-year period. output is approaching 20 million tons), Ogun is
also known for its granite. Commodities such as
Notwithstanding, Ogun state could tap into the these should be exploited, especially as the state
Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement continues to attract companies seeking larger
(ACFTA) to enter the wider frozen chicken operational bases situated near Lagos.
market, and potentially grow its export value to
$4bn in the medium term. The current reality is that Ogun is rapidly
industrializing, and will therefore need to upgrade
Ogun’s unique location should be merged with its infrastructure in its industrial parks and ease
drive for industrialisation. policies around doing businesses in such parks, if
it hopes to continue to attract the big factories,
Given that the Lagos-Kano railways run through and by extension, bigger revenues.
the state, and a new standard gauge railtrack will
connect Ogun to the Lagos port system as a
whole, there is also the option for Ogun to directly
2018 Edition State of States 13

Ekiti Sustainability
Rank 34
Ekiti must revamp her revenue collection institutions, and appraise the metrics
utilised in preparing its budgets; the state’s revenue of N36.9bn in 2016 was
inadequate to cover its Recurrent Expenditure of N41.4bn.

Ekiti state, renowned for its agricultural economy, In 2017, Ekiti collected N30.6bn as Total
is planning to spend N96bn in 2018.1 revenue, while Recurrent expenditure spending
was an estimated N55.03bn.
Notably, the state’s budget size has almost
doubled, from N53.26bn in 2016, to N94.45 and This trend where revenue persistently falls short of
N96bn in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Recurrent expenditure comes with implications
may translate to further Debt.
Actual revenue in 2017 was N30.6bn, with
internally-generated revenue (IGR) contributing Total debt as at December 2017 was
16.23% to the revenue mix. N141.44bn, while External debt which was
$56.9mn as at December 2016, rose to
Admirably, IGR has more than doubled from $78.05mn in 2017.
N2.34bn in 2013 to N4.96bn in 2017; on
average, IGR grew by 25% per annum between Domestic debt, from N22.38bn in 2013, jumped
2013 and 2017. to N117.5bn in 2017, showing an annual growth
rate of 52.16% within the period.
Ekiti’s IGR per capita was N1,519 in 2017, far
below its regional peers Kwara Lagos, and Ogun, The new leadership has its work cut out, to stem
who achieved N6,150, N26,610 and N14,343 growth in Debt figures in the near term.
annually per head.
This is because Ekiti’s revenue from the
Ekiti must revamp her revenue collection federation account (FAAC) may drop due to
institutions, and appraise the metrics utilised in recession cycles, a proliferation of electric cars
preparing its budgets; the state’s revenue of and undulating oil production. As such, the
N36.9bn in 2016 was inadequate to cover its sustainable path for the state is to grow its IGR and
Recurrent Expenditure of N41.4bn. do so sustainably.

1
http://www.punchng.com/ekiti-assembly-passes-n96bn-2018-budget/
2018 Edition State of States 14

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N2.99bn N2.86bn N2.95bn N2.87bn N3.10bn N3.14bn

Ekiti
State
Land of Honour and
Integrity Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N44.3bn 2013 N2.34bn 2013 N46.6bn
2014 N40.1bn 2014 N3.46bn 2014 N43.6bn
2015 N28.2bn 2015 N3.29bn 2015 N31.5bn
2016 N18.8bn 2016 N2.99bn 2016 N21.8bn
2017 N25.6bn 2017 N4.97bn 2017 N30.6bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 12.18%

NET FAAC 87.82%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.15bn N832.9m Nil N413.9m

>

N3.39bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.74bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N117.5bn $78.1m
Domestic External
N3.80bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.54bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue Recurrent 2013 N28.3bn
> (Income) Expenditure
Ability to Meet -N2.14bn 2014 N38.9bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N63.4bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N67.2bn
N3.40bn* N5.54bn* 2017 N141.4bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 15

Ekiti
State
Ceramics Land of Honour and
Integrity

Lying within the famed cocoa belt of Nigeria, this state could shore up its weakening financial base
by paying intense attention to resuscitating agriculture. Investments into the main cash crops -
cocoa, oil palm and timber - must be accelerated, while others such as sorghum could become major
industrial feedstock. As farming rakes in over 90% of Ekiti’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this
sector is the fastest gateway to greater export opportunities.

Ekiti could also tap into its significant clay deposits and become a net producer of tiles, whilst
exploiting its other mineral resources, most of which remain untapped. These include feldspar,
muscovite, bauxite clay, cassiterite, columbite and tantalite; all found in Ijero.

The ceramic (ball) clays and kaolinite clays available at Isan Ekiti, as well as the recently-revived Ire
burnt-brick factory, could ensure the state emerges a frontrunner in the supply of bricks to the
Nigerian construction industry, a development that could deliver close to 200,000 jobs and
significant revenue potentials. Ekiti will need to surmount the challenge of promoting its unique red
brick aggressively, as the national construction sector tends to lean more towards concrete block
usage.

In 2017, ceramics products bought globally amounted to $52.7bn. Ekiti could leverage on its
abundant laterite and clay deposits to become a significant player in the sector, and earn
approximately $1.2bn from ceramic sales.

Ekiti could also draw in more revenue if the Ikogosi Warm Spring is upgraded further, as tourism
remains a fast income earner - provided the requisite investments are made, and maintained.
2018 Edition State of States 16

Lagos Sustainability
Rank 4
In particular, frugality is key, because with the federal government’s growing
focus on the Lagos-Ibadan railways, Lagos could begin to lose some of its
revenue (from taxing workers) to neighbouring states, given that Personal
Income tax should be paid to a citizen’s state of residence, not where they work.

Lagos’ 2018 spending plans suggest she may be of 2016; a growth from 2015 levels of N268.2bn.
borrowing heavily through the financial year. The Previous audit reports show that IGR came to
southwestern Nigerian State has a proposed N236.19bn and N276.16bn in 2013 and 2014
budget of approximately N1.046tn,2 with 66.8% respectively.
(or N699.082bn) going into Capital items, while
the balance will be spent on Recurrent items, With revenue for 2018 projected at N897bn and
including the servicing of public debts, payment of the entire budget amounting to N1.046tn, the
salaries and emoluments of workers and other deficit for Lagos is pegged at N149bn, which will
associated Overhead costs. most likely be closed by borrowing, and sales of
government properties - as seen in previous
At N1.046tn, Lagos’ expansionist 2018 budget years.
is a rise of 28.65%, from 2017 levels of N813bn.
Capital expenditure projections in 2018 stand at Precedent also shows that Lagos revenue can
N699.082bn, from N436.26bn in 2017. conveniently cover its Recurrent expenditure, but
caution is advised as always, regarding the
Lagos is hoping for a Revenue base of N897bn, accumulation of debt.
which is significantly higher than 2017 projections
of N642bn. Actual revenue in 2017 was Total debt for Lagos as end of 2017 was
N423.66bn, with IGR contributing the biggest N813.04bn, and Domestic debt is on the rise.
bracket at 78.83% into Lagos’ income pot. In 2017, Domestic debt grew from 2016 levels of
N311.76bn to N363.29bn, while External debt
Full details on the state’s revenue projections for presently stands at $1.47bn, also as at 2017.
2018 have not been made public, in what appears
to be a pattern of opacity. In particular, frugality is key, because with the
federal government’s growing focus on the
In 2017, Lagos’ budget was anchored on IGR Lagos-Ibadan railways, Lagos could begin to lose
projections of N450.87bn, but actual IGR some of its revenue (from taxing workers) to
collected was N333.97bn. neighbouring states, given that Personal Income
tax should be paid to a citizen’s state of residence,
When compared to many of its peers, the state’s not where they work.
IGR is relatively high, being N287bn as at the end

2
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/ssouth-west/257126-lagos-assembly-passes-n1-046-trillion-budget-2018.html
 2018 Edition State of States 17

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N10.5bn N10.5 bn
N9.75bn N9.72bn N9.10bn N9.96bn
Lagos State
Centre of Excellence

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue
2013 N117.4bn 2013 N236.2bn 2013 N353.6bn
2014 N105.0bn 2014 N276.2bn 2014 N381.2bn
2015 N88.3bn 2015 N268.2bn 2015 N356.6bn
2016 N78.7bn 2016 N302.4bn 2016 N381.1bn
2017 N89.7bn 2017 N333.9bn 2017 N423.7bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 73.72%

NET FAAC 26.28%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N1.86bn N8.03bn N21.7m N27.8bn

>

N37.8bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N9.35bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N363.3bn $1.47bn
Domestic External
N19.57bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N28.92bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Revenue Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) (Income) 2013 N428.5bn
Recurrent
> Expenditure
Ability to Meet N8.83bn 2014 N479.8bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess 2015 N456.8bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N908.3bn
N37.75bn* N28.92bn* 2017 N813.0bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 18

Lagos State
Technology Centre of Excellence

& Biodiesel

As a major economic center and the financial In order to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on the
hub of Nigeria, it is critical for Lagos to continue oil and gas economy (which rakes in over 70%
to attract investment and talent. The state’s of revenue) and establish a strong link between
proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and its huge the downstream petroleum industry and
population make it the preferred destination to agricultural activities, the Nigerian government
land undersea fiber optic cables, as investors could commit to algae plantation and extraction
continue to delve into Africa’s for biofuels production from local feedstock,
telecommunication sectors. with Lagos being the spearhead for these
projects.
As no less than eight companies currently have
their undersea cables running on Lagos waters, Amid a high rate of consumption of non-
the state must deliver the requisite environment renewable fossil fuels, the need for bioethanol
that secures and sustains these high-caliber and biodiesel, is rising, with projected annual
investments. demand in Nigeria pegged at 5.04bn and
900mn liters respectively.
Lagos could also tap into the growing number
of companies within the Yaba area to create Provided processing technologies that
“Yabacon Valley,” a technology and innovation effectively achieve the use of biofuel from algae
cluster, that could be a major service point for as a replacement for fossil fuels are researched
the over 500 million Internet users in Africa. and implemented, Lagos can produce algae
Significant investment to connect offices and biodiesel and export same to countries such as
homes to Internet access, upgrading China, South Africa and India.
infrastructure around Yaba and developing new
or existing incubation centers should help Also, the Badagry and Lekki ports could be
accelerate this transformation. focused on, turning these localities into major
manufacturing hubs. The catch is that these
It is in the interest of the state government to measures must be complemented with efficient
expand access to loans for small businesses road and rail networks, to enable the working
and startups that specifically enhance a population easily commute, and enhance
technology-based economy. distribution of goods.

The state’s water body simultaneously holds In addition, Lagos is a real estate haven, and
huge Aquaculture potentials; Epe and Badagry adjusting its mortgage programmes to suit the
are just two of several regions that could various demographics in the state can fill up
become major aquacultural hubs that situate abandoned houses, and the state’s purse.
Lagos in a global industry projected to be worth
$209.42bn by 2021.
2018 Edition State of States 19

Ondo Sustainability
Rank 9

Arguments have been put forward that Debt may have returned to steady growth
due to revenue shortfalls; the state’s IGR dropped from N11.72bn in 2014, to
N10.93bn in 2017.

Ondo has a budget for 2018 worth Already, Domestic debt has almost doubled
N159.52bn - this is a steady rise from 2016 from N30.88bn in 2013, to N58.55bn in
and 2017 estimates of N123.72bn and 2017.
N169.7bn respectively; the state also
foresees revenue uptake of N137.48bn in External debt has more or less moved within a
2018. tight range; from $50.2m in 2015, down to
$49.53m in 2016, then growing to
In 2017, Actual revenue was N56.83bn, $50.25mn in 2017.
which fell far short of Recurrent expenditure
estimates of N95.16bn in that year. Noteworthy is that these figures are among
the lowest of all Southwestern states in
This trend will most like be replicated for 2018 Nigeria.
because though Ondo has started cutting
down its Recurrent expenditure, revenue Arguments have been put forward that Debt
expectations suggest unfounded optimism. may have returned to steady growth due to
revenue shortfalls; the state’s IGR dropped
Ondo’s Recurrent expenditure in 2017 was from N11.72bn in 2014, to N10.93bn in
N111.7bn, while that for Capital expenditure 2017. Furthermore, IGR accounted for only
was N58bn; the figures for 2018 are far less - 19.23% of Ondo’s revenue in 2017, and was
N78.59bn and N80.93bn for Recurrent and N2,339 per person.
Capital expenditure respectively.

Therefore, with Revenue not expected to

grow beyond N65bn in 2018, Ondo’s ability
to remain in the black, will likely be fraught
with challenges.
2018 Edition State of States 20

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.84bn N5.14bn N5.29bn N5.06bn N5.14bn N5.48bn

Ondo
Sunshine State

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N81.2bn 2013 N10.5bn 2013 N91.7bn
2014 N66.5bn 2014 N11.7bn 2014 N78.2bn
2015 N41.6bn 2015 N10.1bn 2015 N51.7bn
2016 N34.5bn 2016 N8.68bn 2016 N43.2bn
2017 N45.9bn 2017 N10.9bn 2017 N56.8bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 15.0%

NET FAAC 85.0%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.68bn N929.4m N1.55bn N910.7m

>

N6.07bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N3.16bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N58.6bn $50.3m
Domestic External
N3.38bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N6.54bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue Recurrent 2013 N39.2bn
> (Income) Expenditure

Ability to Meet -N0.47bn

2014 N28.8bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015
Expenditure Shortfall N36.9bn
Commitments 2016 N68.0bn
N6.07bn* N6.54bn* 2017 N73.9bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 21

Ondo
Sunshine State
Cocoa &
Asphalt
Shingles

Ondo needs to save its economy by tapping into stone roofing, the material is also very simple to
its agricultural products, especially cocoa. install as well.

As Ondo, Osun and Ekiti States are historically A recent study estimates the global market for
known for the commercial cocoa production in asphalt shingles will exceed $10bn by 2022,
the early 1960s that comprised the with the North America market expected to
powerhouse of Nigeria’s South-west economy, remain dominant, and bring in sales of roughly
revitalizing the cocoa trade will tangibly move $6bn.
Ondo towards self-sustenance.
It is believed that there are over 42.47 billion
To migrate away from the federal government’s tonnes of bitumen in Nigeria - an important
statutory allocations, Ondo could target delivery industrial feedstock for the asphalt shingles
of 50,000 tons of quality cocoa annually, which industry.
should create jobs and also extend its markets
to the over 125 factories in China that use As such, Ondo could build an economy around
cocoa for industrial feedstock. the asphalt shingles sector - and use its
domestic market advantage and the ACFTA
Ondo could potentially receive $1bn annually initiative to advance the application of this
from the cocoa markets if trade policies, fiscal product to Africa’s housing market, which is
incentives and accountability are aligned with growing on the back of a youthful population.
cutting-edge infrastructure and cropping
practices, to achieve production targets. Ondo’s access to trade markets will be largely
enhanced, if plans with the Ogun state
government to develop a deep-sea port and
The state would also benefit from coming up free-trade zone around Olokola (in the coastline
with strategies that look further afield, including areas between both states), become a reality.
investing in its bitumen industry, diversifying its
crude oil revenue base and laying infrastructure
that specifically boosts inter-state trade. With As this project is meant to serve as an export-
bitumen, Ondo could become a major roofing processing zone as well as an oil and gas
hub for the West African market, as well as logistics base, Ondo is advised to utilise it to
selling to road construction companies, all of create seamless transportation of her
which may be achieved via a joint-venture processed resources and reduce the pressure
system with potential investors. on the two functional free trade zones (Onne
and Calabar) in Nigeria. An added advantage is
Asphalt shingle, which utilises bitumen for that this scheme could see Ondo emerge a
waterproofing is widely used as roofing covers, major logistic base in the West, alongside the
particularly in North America. Relatively more Lagos free-trade zone.
low in cost when compared with aluminum or
2018 Edition State of States 22

Osun Sustainability
Rank 35

With IGR per capita in 2017 recorded as N1,378 per person, the state must
expedite extensive tweaking of its budgeting and revenue generation systems.

Osun continues to struggle financially, amid news Unless Recurrent expenditures are subjected to
reports on its efforts to meet wage and pension further cuts, Osun’s inability to meet its
bills. obligations to civil servants and other contractors
may be perpetuated.
The state plans to spend N176.4bn3 in 2018;
about 51.2% of the budget will go to Capital Its Total revenue in 2017 was N16.9bn - a
expenditure. whopping 348% less than the N75.8bn budgeted
for Recurrent expenditure obligations.
A dampener on Osun’s prospects is that her debt
servicing obligations (based on debt statutory Given that Recurrent expenditure is expected to
allocations) will persistently drag down revenue increase to N86.26bn in 2018, Osun’s planning
during this period. Deductions in 2016 amounted models should assume a realistic appraisal of its
to a whopping N28.99bn in 2016; these Revenue versus Expenditure, and proffer near-
arrangements might linger until Osun’s debt runs term solutions.
out.
This is crucial because its IGR is dropping - from
Simultaneously, External debt has hit an all-time N8.88bn in 2016 to N6.49bn in 2017; IGR in
high of $96.6mn in 2017, from $70.5mn in 2016 2013, 2014 and 2015 was N7.28b, N8.51bn
and $76.9mn in 2015. and N8.07bn respectively.

Domestic debt which spiralled from N41.4bn in With IGR per capita in 2017 recorded as N1,378
2013 to N147.07bn in 2016, is trending lower, per person, the state must expedite extensive
amounting to N138.24bn in 2017. tweaking of its budgeting and revenue generation
systems.

3
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/ssouth-west/260786-osun-assembly-increases-2018-states-budget-estimate-n2-4-billion.html
2018 Edition State of States 23

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N1.70bn N1.63bn N1.66bn N1.59bn N1.85bn N1.82bn

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Osun State
Land of Virtue

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N46.1bn 2013 N7.28bn 2013 N53.4bn
2014 N35.9bn 2014 N8.51bn 2014 N44.5bn
2015 N20.2bn 2015 N8.07bn 2015 N28.3bn
2016 N5.91bn 2016 N8.89bn 2016 N14.8bn
2017 N10.4bn 2017 N6.49bn 2017 N16.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 24.05%

NET FAAC 75.95%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N782.4m N924.8m Nil N540.5m

>

N2.25bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N5.33bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N138.2bn $96.6m
Domestic External
N1.89bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N7.22bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N51.3bn
>
Ability to Meet -N4.97 2014 N51.2bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N159.9bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N102.5bn
N2.25bn* N7.22bn* 2017 N167.9bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 24

Cocoa Osun State

Land of Virtue

One way for Osun to grow its earnings in the Also, given that countries such as Netherlands,
near term is to follow through with the Belgium, Germany, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Memorandum of Understanding it has with the Slovakia, Finland, USA, France, UK, Canada,
International Institute of Tropical Agriculture Italy, Spain and Poland lead the cocoa import
(IITA), Ibadan, to boost cocoa production. If the charts, Nigeria will need to attain some form of
policy is sustained, Osun could aggressively trade agreements with the European Union and
promote her cocoa yield to top 40,000 tons. the USA.

During the 1960-1970s, cocoa production Osun’s proximity to the major cities in Wouth-
numbers of 308,000 metric tonnes contributed west Nigeria (including Lagos, Ibadan and
significantly to Nigeria’s foreign exchange Abeokuta via rail) could potentially make the
earnings. By the end of 2015, total cocoa state a major food hub sending cassava, yams,
production was estimated to be in the region of vegetables and other produce throughout the
192,000 metric tonnes, partly due to the region.
abolition of commodity boards during the
Structural Adjustment Policy period of austerity A marketing board system, complemented by a
measures in the 80s. marketing strategy (similar to what Kebbi and
Lagos did regarding the Lake Rice initiative),
As at 2016, Nigeria is the fifth largest producer could be adopted.
of cocoa after Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Indonesia
and Cameroon. Osun could choose to become Non-edible revenue streams Osun may explore
a major player in the field, as Nigeria has are its gold and clay deposits. These are a few
experienced fluctuating production quantity of the measures Osun may choose to utilise, to
over the last 10 years, despite global production revamp her revenue base and take her books
remaining relatively stable at an average of out of their current precarious position.
4,375,004 million tonnes per year.

Nigeria is presently targeting cocoa production

of 500,000 tonnes per year, and earnings of
about $1bn; Osun can fill in the market gaps.
Extensive investment in required logistics-
based infrastructure, administrative policies and
the efficient management of every tenet of the
value chain are factors that will greatly aid
Osun’s chances of success.
2018 Edition State of States 25

Oyo Sustainability
Rank 30

Indications are that Oyo intends to target its informal workforce of 2.38million
workers to generate more revenue.

Oyo state has a budget of N271.73bn4 in fiscal tagging its 2017 plan a “Budget of Self Reliance,”
year 2018, from its 2017 spending plan worth in fiscal year 2016, Oyo’s FAAC allocations
N209bn. The Recurrent component of the state’s constituted 65.4% of her revenue mix. By 2017,
2018 budget at N121.79bn is outsized, when the number had risen to 66.5%, (or N66.46bn) of
compared with the state’s income; Actual revenue all revenue accruing to Oyo.
in 2017 was N66.92bn.
Debt levels are also rising; Total debt was
Oyo state’s Recurrent expenditure which was N157.81bn in 2017, with Domestic debt climbing
projected at N128bn in fiscal year 2017 remains a from N19.1bn in 2013 to N129.21bn in 2017.
gaping hole in the state’s accounts. External debt which went from $66.75mn (in
2015) to $71.91mn (in 2016), now stands at
A breakdown of revenue for 2017 shows that IGR $93.22mn as at year-end 2017.
made up 33.5% of Total revenue, while the
balance comes in from FAAC. These figures are projected to grow even further,
unless checks are made, to balance the books.
Trends also show Oyo’s IGR fluctuates; in 2014 it
was N16.30bn, but dropped to N15.66bn in Indications are that Oyo intends to target its
2015, later increasing to N18.88bn in 2016. informal workforce of 2.38million workers to
generate more revenue. One of several related
For 2017, the IGR figures of N22.45bn indicate initiatives recently announced by the state
that revenue maybe on the path of growth, but government is a security levy placed on
when Oyo’s IGR per capita of N2,863 per person residences; Oyo is hoping to rake in N2bn
is taken into consideration, revenue generated is annually through this tax.
below the national average.

The irony of the state’s dependence on federal

allocations (from the FAAC) is that despite

4
http://www.tribuneonlineng.com/oyo-passes-n271-7bn-2018-budget/
2018 Edition State of States 26

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.65bn N4.58bn N4.61bn N4.54bn N4.89bn N4.89bn

Oyo State
Pace Setter
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N67.1bn 2013 N15.3bn 2013 N82.4bn
2014 N57.4bn 2014 N16.3bn 2014 N73.7bn
2015 N42.9bn 2015 N15.7bn 2015 N58.7bn
2016 N33.5bn 2016 N18.9bn 2016 N52.4bn
2017 N44.5bn 2017 N22.4bn 2017 N66.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 28.50%

NET FAAC 71.50%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.32bn N1.38bn Nil N1.87bn

>

N6.56bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N3.32bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N129.2bn $93.2m
Domestic External
N6.82bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N10.14bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N31.9bn
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) >
Ability to Meet -N3.58bn 2014 N26.0bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N60.6bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N57.9bn
N6.56bn* N10.14bn* 2017 N157.8bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 27

HQCF

High-quality
Cassava flour Oyo State
Pace Setter

Indications are that Oyo intends to target its A need to conserve foreign exchange and
informal sector of 2.38 million workers, to reduce import dependency is the driving force
generate revenue. for cassava starch demand, especially due to its
partial substitution for cornstarch in user
We advise that Oyo instead revamps existing industries.
revenue streams, rather than embark on more
expensive, new ones that may be unwittingly Oyo will therefore need to embark of extensive
punitive on the masses. agronomy and research, to push yield up from
10 tons per hectare to 40 tons per hectare.
The Ikere Gorge Dam, which can potentially Outside Nigeria, Oyo could achieve export
generate over 3750MW of hydroelectricity and figures of $3bn of this commodity, with
irrigate up to 12,000 hectares of farmland, strategic planning and marketing.
remains abandoned. In turn, the 12,000
hectares of land, which draws water from the Away from agriculture, Oyo’s ability to get its
Ikere dam, could be put to use as a rice paddy, Ikere dam functional, could effectively give the
with crop yield servicing the Lagos market, and state a seat at the table of major power hubs in
beyond. Nigeria.

Nigeria currently imports 96% of starch, as This dam simultaneously holds the likelihood of
local demand of 600,000 tonnes are not being significant revenue from aquaculture, as frozen
met, while 200,00 tonnes or 100% of freshwater shrimps generated $1.8bn in export
sweeteners used in the country are currently sales in 2017; a 21.4% rise from 2016.
being imported.
Ecuador, Greenland, Canada and Denmark
For high quality cassava flour (HQCF), about exported freshwater shrimps worth $366.6mn,
88% of the 504,000 tonnes demanded locally $323.9mn, $301.7mn and $287.5mn
is currently imported. respectively, in the same year.

Oyo could become a net exporter of HQCF in Oyo can take advantage of the Ikere dam to
the medium term by tapping into the high breed freshwater prawns, and other species,
demand for cassava starch in Nigeria, which is possibly exporting freshwater shrimps worth
in excess of 350,000 tons per annum. $400mn in the near to medium term.

The commodity is widely used in industries

including: textile; pharmaceuticals; oil drilling;
paper and packaging; gum and adhesives;
chemicals, as well as household products
manufacturing.
South East
2018 Edition State of States 29

ENUGU EBONYI ANAMBRA

RICE ANIMAL FEED

COAL & CEMENT

Per capita cement consumption The state could potentially

in Africa’s largest economy is “Abakaliki rice” has witnessed a become a booming export hub if
significantly below the global major resurgence, after the river Niger is fully passable.
average of 500kg, meaning there disappearing from tables in the This transportation network may
is huge potential for growth. South-east as a food staple for also service the South-east’s
many years. petroleum needs, while
With production in the region of Anambra could take grains from
48 million metrics tons and From 120 metric tons of rice Nigeria’s middle-belt area,
domestic use totalling about 30 processed daily, output today process these into animal feed
million metric tons, the sector stands at 180 metric tons, with and use its logistics base to sell
has huge export potential.Enugu room to raise production, due to these products further afield in-
could also use its abundant coal increased demand nationwide. country and regionally.
deposits to build an industrial
base around the cement sector.

Population

South East
Export Potential

21,955,414
2016 Estimate (CBN)

IMO ABIA

Paris
Plaster of

SHRIMPS &
PLASTER OF PARIS FOOTWEAR

The global market for

gypsum was estimated at The Aba Industrial Zone
$1.49bn in 2016 and is could therefore leverage on
expected to reach $3.8bn by the availability of cow leather
2028, with about 252m in the North; petrochemicals
tonnes of gypsum powder in the South, as well as its
currently produced unique location and human
worldwide. capital, to become a net
exporter of footwear.
Imo could therefore also
diversify its economy around
its ceramic and gypsum
industry.
2018 Edition State of States 30

Abia Sustainability
Rank 12

In the interim, Abia may continue to grapple with unbalanced books, except immediate steps are taken to rein
in its Overheads costs, which are projected to increase from 2017 levels of N15.9bn to N17.605bn in 2018.

Abia’s budget for 2018 is worth N141bn, and sustainably; IGR was N12.5bn, N12.37bn and
directed at boosting trade and commerce, N13.35bn in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively, but
reinvigorating its agriculture and agribusiness sectors fell to N12.69bn in 2016, and rose to N14.92bn in
as well as stimulating the emergence of small and 2017.
medium scale manufacturing. To achieve these, the
state hopes to attract investment and directly spend Also, Abia’s Recurrent expenditure obligations (which
on critical infrastructure, particularly on Health and were projected at N57.4bn in 2017) are higher than
Education.5 its revenue. Actual revenue in 2017 (Statutory, VAT
and IGR) which was approximately N53.79bn, could
However, one of the key limitations holding Abia back not cover Recurrent expenditure, despite the state’s
is its revenue. Abia’s Total revenue was budget calling for an additional spending of
approximately N53.79bn in 2017; about 72.27% of N45.185bn on Capital items.
this comes from the federation account (administered
by the Federation Accounts and Allocation The nationwide trend is that often, revenue shortfalls
Committee - FAAC), reinforcing the argument that in the books translate to raised levels of debt. Abia’s
Abia remains highly dependent on these monthly domestic debt profile - pegged at N53.5bn in
handouts from FAAC for its survival. Internally December 2016 - now stands at N60.65bn (as at
Generated Revenue (IGR) was N14.92bn and December, 2017) and may continue its upward
N12.69bn in 2017 and 2016 respectively. States trajectory. Domestic debt grew at an annual average
pool IGR from taxes and levies, including Personal of 21.39% between 2013 and 2017, while IGR grew
Income Tax; Withholding Tax (from individuals only); about 4.85% per annum within the same
Capital Gains Tax (individuals only) and Stamp Duties period.Worth noting is that External Debt as at
on instruments executed by individuals. December 2017 was $101.49mn; a rise of 145%,
from $41.3mn in 2016.
In 2018, Abia hopes to grow it IGR to about
N29.18bn. 6 Juxtaposed against its estimated At face value,these figures suggest that the State has
population of about 7 million, the state could only been accumulating debt faster than its capacity to
generate IGR per capita of N4,002 per head in 2017 grow IGR. However, it must be considered that plans
- an abysmal figure compared to the N26,000 that to locate a Special Economic Zone in Aba have been
Lagos (its peer in terms of industrialisation), is announced.
currently generating.
This could reverse rising debt in the long term, given
Analysts and state government officials have linked the industrial and job creation potential the zone could
Abia’s low IGR uptake to the huge size of her informal bring. In the interim, Abia may continue to grapple
economy and taxation architecture (which is majorly with unbalanced books, except immediate steps are
cash-based, and therefore susceptible to revenue taken to rein in its Overheads costs, which are
leakages and maladministration. Therefore, Abia may projected to increase from 2017 levels of N15.9bn to
need to explore alternatives to expand her undulating N17.605bn in 2018.
income. It is critical to grow revenue markedly and

5
http://www.abiastate.gov.ng/news/2018-budget-speech-presented-by-okezie-victor-ikpeazu-ph-d-governor-of-abia-state/
6
http://nigerianstat.gov.ng/resource/2017%20IGR.xlsx
2018 Edition State of States 31

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.36bn N4.32bn N4.41bn N4.30bn N4.55bn N4.51bn

Abia State
God’s Own State

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N61.1bn 2013 N12.5bn 2013 N73.6bn
2014 N54.9bn 2014 N12.4bn 2014 N67.3bn
2015 N40.1bn 2015 N13.3bn 2015 N53.4bn
2016 N30.7bn 2016 N12.7bn 2016 N43.4bn
2017 N38.9bn 2017 N14.9bn 2017 N53.8bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 21.99%

NET FAAC 78.01%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.85bn N885m N673.9m N1.24bn

>

N5.65bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.70bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N60.6bn $101.5m
Domestic External
N3.00bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.70bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

2013 N37.2bn
>
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure
Ability to Meet 2014 N31.2bn
-N0.05bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N41.7bn
Expenditure Shortfall
Commitments 2016 N68.4bn
N5.65bn* N5.70bn* 2017 N91.8bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 32

Abia State
God’s Own State

Footwear

Abia could position its manufacturing sector to With the worldwide trade in shoes expected to
tap into the eco-friendly footwear sub-sector. top $371.8bn by 2020, Nigeria and Abia state
have an advantage; they could overtake
The state enjoys a significant advantage over Vietnam, which presently exports
other regions in Nigeria due to its proximity to approximately $13bn worth of goods to the
the Niger river, but will however need to dredge United States and Europe. The market for
the Obuaku river and kickstart the Obuaku River leather footwear for women, men and children
Port Complex, for maximum impact. is expected to increase to $207bn by 2021.

These projects should connect Abia directly to Given that 54% of footwear in 2016 was sold in
the Atlantic Ocean, potentially reducing the Europe, Abia may choose to exploit Nigeria’s
costs of moving industrial feedstock, and location and corner a share of the European
rapidly transforming the Aba Industrial Zone. market.

Infrastructure within the Aba manufacturing Opportunities also abound in Asia, America and
region will also need to be revamped, alongside Africa; if business activities are tangibly
indices that ease commerce, including the formalised in Abia, Aba could – with strategic
costs covering minimum capital to open a planning, improved production process and
business and operate same; obtaining aggressive marketing strategies - become a
electricity connections; constructing new major player in these regions in the near future.
warehouses and access to credit.
In terms of revenue uptake, the state’s
The Textile, Apparel and Footwear sub-sector internally-generated revenue (IGR) can receive
of the Nigerian economy is presently estimated a significant boost from leather goods, as the
at N2.02tn, and is expected to grow rapidly on global footwear sub-sector remains labour
the back of improving discretionary spending. intensive.

The Aba Industrial Zone could therefore

leverage on the availability of cow leather in the
North; petrochemicals in the South, as well as
its unique location and human capital, to
become a net exporter of footwear.
2018 Edition State of States 33

Anambra Sustainability
Rank 11
Anambra appears to have beneficially tapped into the debt markets to set up/expand industrial zones.
However, caution is necessary, to ensure debts are only invested in self-liquidating assets. Anambra will also
need to slow down growth in Recurrent expenditure figures, whilst growing its IGR (which is approximately
N3,141 per capita in 2017).

The Anambra state government has self- With precedents forcing the standpoint that
admittedly taken a shrewd fiscal position during a Anambra’s revenue will not exceed N62bn, the
settling of crude oil prices. Its annual Recurrent state’s debt could expand in the near to medium
Expenditure was projected at N56.6bn in 2017, a term.
figure slightly lower from 2016 estimates of about
N60bn. Lower expenditure projections are itself a But currently, Anambra’s debt levels are
buck in the trend where states progressively raise commendable for their being comparably low;
their spending prospects. Domestic debt was N2.6bn as at end-December
2017, lower than 2015 levels of N3.99bn.
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) for Anambra External debt was approximately $50.5mn, which
grew from N16.19bn 2016, to N17.37bn. When puts Anambra’s Total debt at N28.97bn, and
compared with the state’s estimated Total makes it the least-indebted state in Nigeria.
revenue of N58.7bn in 2017, IGR accounted for
approximately 30% of all revenue for the fiscal Anambra appears to have beneficially tapped into
year. In 2013, 2014 and 2015, IGR was N8.7bn, the debt markets to set up/expand industrial
N10.24bn and N14.8bn respectively. zones. However, caution is necessary, to ensure
debts are only invested in self-liquidating assets.
With her Recurrent expenditure obligations Anambra will also need to slow down growth in
estimated at N56.6bn in 2017, the state’s fiscal Recurrent expenditure figures, whilst growing its
position indicates some semblance of vigour, IGR (which is approximately N3,141 per capita in
notwithstanding its relatively low IGR uptake. 2017).

In the 2018 financial year, Anambra aims to spend With IGR itself growing at an annual average of
7
a total sum of N170.9bn, and notes it will attempt 19.48%, Anambra must accelerate the pace of
to attain fiscal independence in four years by IGR growth. An integrated and expansive plan
realigning its systems such that IGR will cover focused on improving tax collection efficiency in
Recurrent expenditure, while the balance would the near and medium term will be one of the
8
support Capital items. fastest ways to achieve this.

A closer look shows that the 2018 budget

delineates about N63.9bn for Recurrent
expenditure, above 2017 estimates of N56.6bn.
The Personnel costs component of Recurrent
expenditure comes in at N21.6bn; a rise from
2017 budget figures of N20.4bn; Overheads are
also expected to grow to N21.2bn.

7
http://anambrastate.gov.ng/news?r=anambra-assembly-passes-2018-budget-&hs=04da5b0ed7741357aef52b252a7603c4
8
http://www.anambrablog.ng/2017/12/full-speech-of-2018-budget-presented-by.html
2018 Edition State of States 34

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.37bn N4.33bn N4.38bn N4.26bn N4.56bn N4.52bn

Anambra
State
Light of the Nation
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N58.9bn 2013 N8.73bn 2013 N67.7bn
2014 N52.2bn 2014 N10.5bn 2014 N62.7bn
2015 N40.4bn 2015 N14.8bn 2015 N55.2bn
2016 N32.7bn 2016 N16.2bn 2016 N48.9bn
2017 N41.3bn 2017 N17.4bn 2017 N58.7bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 24.73%

NET FAAC 75.27%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.36bn N1.04bn Nil N1.45bn

>

N5.85bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.80bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N2.6bn $85.9m
Domestic External
N3.57bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.37bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N7.86bn
>
Ability to Meet N0.48bn 2014 N11.0bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess 2015 N15.6bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N18.9bn
N5.85bn* N5.37bn* 2017 N28.9bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 35

Anambra
State
Animal Light of the Nation

Feed

Anambra’s lying on the river Niger could form Anambra can therefore cash in, to serve the
the backbone of a cheaper transportation Nigerian and African markets through
network for feedstock and other industrial raw continental free trade agreements.
materials.
The state may also choose to capitalise on its
Guaranteed economic independence will come extensive deposits of clay, glass sand, kaolin,
to Anambra, if the lower Niger can be fully limestone, bentonite and aluminum, to become
dredged and the Onitsha port comes on- a major producer of tiles, particularly within the
stream, serving the South-east and North-east Nigerian housing market, which is set to expand
of Nigeria. by 20 million housing units in the next decade
alone.
The state could potentially become a booming
export hub if the river Niger is fully passable. Ongoing initiatives, such as the public-private
This transportation network may also service partnership which resulted in a 75-hectare
the South-east’s petroleum needs, while poultry farm with a capacity of two million birds
Anambra could take grains from Nigeria’s per annum (which should take Anambra’s
middle-belt area, process these into animal annual production numbers to five million), align
feed and use its logistics base to sell these with greater economic independence.
products further afield in-country and
regionally. Nevertheless, significant investments in feed
mills, silos and associated infrastructure is
Export of animal feeds excluding pet dog and needed, if Anambra expects to surpass a target
cat food totaled $13.8bn in 2016, while beyond 20 million birds in the next ten years.
European countries accounted for the highest
dollar worth of exported animal feeds in the The state will need investment in the region of
same year, with shipments valued at $8.4bn, or $3bn to become a big player in the near term.
60.8% of the global total. We also advise Anambra to consolidate its hold
on Nigeria’s rice production value-chain by
In second place were Asian exporters at 18%; ramping up measures that anticipate and meet
about 13.3% of worldwide shipments for the logistics needs of the sub-sector.
animal feeds originated from North America.
Smaller percentages come from Latin America
(excluding Mexico) but including the Caribbean
(5.6%), Africa (1.1%) and Oceania (1.1%) -
led by Australia.
2018 Edition State of States 36

Ebonyi Sustainability
Rank 18
Regarding debt, Ebonyi state may have to streamline its budget
implementation, as Total debt which stood at N34.6bn as at year-end
2017, is growing. Domestic debt rose from N13.2bn in 2013 to N34.17bn
in 2015.

Ebonyi budgets a spend of N208.33bn in 2018.9 However, the fall in oil prices in 2014/2015
exposed the state’s financial vulnerability. Its
The Recurrent component of this budget is budget is highly dependent on routine monthly
estimated at N43.33bn; a rise N40.171bn in handouts from the FAAC, and Domestic debt
2017, with Capital expenditure projected to cost therefore spiralled by approximately 391.21% in a
N165bn in 2018. year, during this period.

The state’s 2018 fiscal plan is based on revenue By 2016, Ebonyi’s IGR dropped to N2.42bn, from
uptake of N88.88bn, and Ebonyi plans to close N11.03bn in 2015.
the deficit by pooling N18.89bn from previous
savings, and borrowing N100.52bn from internal The 2017 numbers placing IGR at N5.1bn show
and external sources. improvement, but Ebonyi is yet to return to its
financial status before the oil pricing crisis; IGR
In 2017, Actual revenue was N40.59bn, while accounted for only 12.57% of the state’s Total
Recurrent expenditure estimates came to revenue in 2017.
N40.17bn. Ebonyi’s revenue sufficiently met its
Recurrent expenditure commitments as projected Despite this Debt, lessening revenue and the
in the 2017 budget. The fiscal plan for 2018 also general economic slowdown, Ebonyi is one of the
appears to be toeing this path, going by figures very few that met its Recurrent Expenditure
from the first quarter of 2018. obligations. More work is nevertheless called for
on its IGR drive, as IGR per capita amounts to
Regarding debt, Ebonyi state may have to N1,772 per head.
streamline its budget implementation, as Total
debt which stood at N34.6bn as at year-end
2017, is growing. Domestic debt rose from
N13.2bn in 2013 to N34.17bn in 2015. In 2016,
there was some respite: Domestic debt reduced
to N28.06bn, before rising again in 2017. On
average, Debt for Ebonyi grew at an annual rate of
87.33% between 2013 and 2017.

9
http://www.ebonyistate.gov.ng/Ministry/Finance/Budget_2018.aspx
2018 Edition State of States 37

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N3.63bn N3.53bn N3.58bn N3.52bn N3.77bn N3.63bn

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Ebonyi State
Salt of the Nation

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N42.2bn 2013 N10.4bn 2013 N52.6bn
2014 N39.5bn 2014 N11.0bn 2014 N50.5bn
2015 N30.5bn 2015 N11.0bn 2015 N41.6bn
2016 N28.4bn 2016 N2.3bn 2016 N30.8bn
2017 N35.5bn 2017 N5.1bn 2017 N40.6bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 10.56%

NET FAAC 89.44%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.78bn N824.1m Nil N425.2m

>

N4.03bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.18bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N36.6bn $63.4m
Domestic External
N2.38bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N3.56bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
2013 N20.1bn
> Revenue
(Income)
Recurent
Expenditure
Ability to Meet N0.47bn 2014 N15.2bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess 2015 N43.5bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N35.3bn
N4.03bn* N3.56bn* 2017 N54.1bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 38

Rice Ebonyi State

Salt of the Nation

The opportunities here center around the consumption of six million metric tons per
agriculture sector, which the governor has annum.
announced as a priority.
Ebonyi may also decide to enter into
“Abakaliki rice” has witnessed a major agreements with consumer-grower states in
resurgence, after disappearing from tables in Nigeria and further afield, following the strategy
the South-east as a food staple for many years. implemented by Kebbi and Lagos, which
From 120 metric tons of rice processed daily, resulted in the production of the Lake (Lagos-
output today stands at 180 metric tons, with Kebbi) Rice brand.
room to raise production, due to increased
demand nationwide. Were Ebonyi to raise rice production numbers
to 2 million tons (via improved seedlings and
This could be achieved by attracting investors to increased mechanisation), the state could
either set up modernised rice processing mills, potentially sell 40 million bags (at 50kg each)
as well as by incentivising paddy rice farmers, under partnership initiatives.
such that although Ebonyi has targeted
350,000 metric tons of rice by the end of 2018, However, Ebonyi will need investments worth at
it could achieve 1-2 million metric tons before least $1.5bn to achieve these sales; a solution
the end of 2019. to offsetting its debts in this regard could be
appending a tax of N2000 per 50kg bag, which
This would be a notable share of the rice could boost the state’s IGR by N80bn.
market, in a country with an estimated
2018 Edition State of States 39

Enugu Sustainability
Rank 10
Enugu should therefore start exploring ways of formalising these sectors and
making use of its unique location to attract industrial manufacturers with heavy
energy requirements, including fossil fuels.

Enugu is planning N103.5bn for the 2018 Domestic debt which was N12.06bn as at
financial year; a significant rise from 2017 December 2013 has climbed to N59.75bn in
10
expenditure estimates of N98.56bn. 2017; External debt is now in the region of
$133.11mn.
The 2018 budget delineates N60.7bn for
Recurrent items, while N42.8bn will go to Capital Enugu state must prioritise frugality in its
items, if the budget is fully implemented as Recurrent expenditure to free funds for
passed. developmental items. Compared to its peers, the
state should also ramp up on debt only for self-
11
Enugu aims for IGR of about N30bn in 2018; liquidating ventures.
IGR in 2017, 2016 and 2015 was N22.04bn,
N14.24bn and N18.08bn. Enugu could also look into upgrading the earning
power - and consequently the tax potential - of its
Between 2013 and 2017, IGR grew at an average citizens. About 3,200 people work in its Mining
rate of 5.6% annually, dropping from N20.2bn in sector, up to 58,000 people work in
2013 to N19.25bn in 2014. Against its projected Manufacturing, and 1.4million are in Agriculture,
population, IGR per capita of the self-named “Coal according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
state” comes to N4,996 per person.
Enugu should therefore start exploring ways of
Actual revenue for Enugu state - at N56.42bn in formalising these sectors and making use of its
2017 - when compared with its Recurrent unique location to attract industrial manufacturers
expenditure estimate of N55.2bn for the same with heavy energy requirements, including fossil
year shows some fiscal stability. However, fuels.
revenue estimates of N88.24bn for 2018 point to
an unrealistic leap between the current budget
projection and past Actual revenue.

Enugu will need to intensify policies and existing

initiatives that drive IGR, to control its debt
portfolio. From 2013 to 2017, IGR has grown at
an annual average of 5.69%, while the state has
been accumulating Domestic debt at the rate of
51.47% annually.

10
http://www.tribuneonlineng.com/gombe-assembly-passes-2018-budget-n114-billion/
11
http://www.businessdayonline.com/enugu-targets-n30bn-igr-fund-2018-budget/
2018 Edition State of States 40

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.06bn N4.08bn N4.14bn N4.07bn N4.37bn N4.34bn

Enugu
State
Coal City State
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N55.3bn 2013 N20.2bn 2013 N75.5bn
2014 N51.7bn 2014 N19.3bn 2014 N70.9bn
2015 N39.0bn 2015 N18.1bn 2015 N57.1bn
2016 N30.9bn 2016 N14.2bn 2016 N45.2bn
2017 N34.4bn 2017 N22.0bn 2017 N56.4bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 30.54%

NET FAAC 69.46%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.25bn N925.2m Nil N1.84bn

>

N6.01bn*(Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N3.13bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N59.7bn $133.1m
Domestic External
N1.93bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.06bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent 2013 N20.5bn
>
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure
Ability to Meet N0.95bn 2014 N35.1bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess 2015 N51.7bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N55.6bn

N6.01bn* N5.06bn* 2017 N100.6bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 41

Enugu
State
Coal & Coal City State

Cement

To get extra revenue, Enugu must look to its Africa’s largest economy is significantly below
population; about 3,200 people work in its the global average of 500kg, meaning there is
Mining sector, up to 58,000 people work in huge potential for growth.
Manufacturing, and 1.4million are in
Agriculture, according to the National Bureau of With production in the region of 48 million
Statistics. metrics tons and domestic use totalling about
30 million metric tons, the sector has huge
The state should therefore start exploring ways export potential.
of formalising these sectors, making use of its
unique location to attract industrial Enugu could also use its abundant coal deposits
manufacturers with heavy energy to build an industrial base around the cement
requirements. sector.

Nigeria is expected to produce approximately Though the effect of the Paris Climate Accord
48 million tons of cement in 2018, a rise from on the coal mining sector (and by extension
approximately 10 million metric tonnes Enugu’s revenue from coal) cannot be
produced a decade ago. immediately ascertained, worth noting is that
the state’s tourism and renewable energy
In 2017, cement worth N551.78bn was sold in potentials could help offset any negative effect
Nigeria, compared to a peak of N596.17bn in on earnings in the interim.
2015 . Government remains the largest buyer
of cement in the country, responsible for an For instance, Enugu’s wind energy potential is
estimated 50% of total consumption.12 well documented by the ministry of Science and
Technology, and therefore the state would
Domestic consumption of the product is benefit greatly by ensuring alternative energy
projected to increase significantly in the near initiatives become mainstream.
term, on the back of a rapidly-expanding
household size and increase demand for Also, her beautiful lakes, caves, hills, falls, and
infrastructure. springs could gain more prominence as
attractive locations for Nigerian and foreign
Also, Nigeria is facing a huge housing deficit, tourists if further developed, promoted and
and with attempts to rework the nation’s made more secure, which in turn could
mortgage system, demand could grow significantly boost Enugu’s earning prospects in
significantly in the medium to long term. the immediate and foreseeable future.

Cement use in Nigeria is however in the region

of 149kg/person, or 28 million metric tonnes
per annum. Per capita cement consumption in

12
https://www.proshareng.com/articles/NSE-&-Capital-Market-/Nigeria-s-Cement-Manufacturing-Industry-Rep/1560
2018 Edition State of States 42

Imo Sustainability
Rank 15
As an oil-producing state with approximately 163 oil wells across 12 locations,
Imo should shore up its revenue from this sector, and complement these
measures with extensive reduction and formalization of its workforce as well as a
rapid improvement of infrastructure, to enhance its prospects at financial viability.

Imo State has budgeted approximately N190bn in This cyce of revenue shortfall and debt
2018; a 45% leap from N131.14bn. in 2017.13 accumulation could continue, as Imo’s revenue is
not expected to be significantly higher than
Revenue in 2017 for Imo, which has an economy N50bn, meaning the state may resort to dipping
still centred around agriculture and trade, was into savings, or even borrowing to meet Recurrent
N44.97bn. IGR contributes only 15.24% to the expenditure commitments.
state’s revenue pool, reinforcing the argument
that Imo is mainly reliant on monthly FAAC It is best Imo proactively and extensively reins in
disbursements. Overheads (its operating costs) and cuts down on
capital spending.
In 2017, IGR stood at N6.85bn; far lower than the
N8.1bn achieved in 2014; for 2015 and 2016, As an oil-producing state with approximately 163
IGR was N5.47bn and N5.87bn respectively. oil wells across 12 locations, Imo should shore up
its revenue from this sector, and complement
Imo’s IGR per capita was N1,264 per head, and these measures with extensive reduction and
the proposed budget for 2017 also showed that formalization of its workforce as well as a rapid
its Revenue of N44.9bn could not cover lower improvement of infrastructure, to enhance its
Recurrent expenditure estimates of N53.73bn - prospects at financial viability.
compared to the 2016 estimates of N60.7bn.

These developments occurred amid Total debt

stock of N100.06bn as at 2017. Domestic debt
for Imo grew from N12.63bn in 2013, to
N80.79bn in 2017, at an annual average of
73.40%.

External debt is just as significant, presently

recorded at $62.85bn as at December 2017.

13
https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/12/14/imo-budgets-n190bn-for-2018-fiscal-year/
2018 Edition State of States 43

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.14bn N4.27bn N4.31bn N4.32bn N4.39bn

Imo N3.94bn
State
Eastern Heartland
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N62.8bn 2013 N7.58bn 2013 N70.4bn
2014 N55.8bn 2014 N8.11bn 2014 N63.9bn
2015 N39.5bn 2015 N5.47bn 2015 N44.9bn
2016 N30.2bn 2016 N5.87bn 2016 N36.1bn
2017 N38.1bn 2017 N6.85bn 2017 N44.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 11.89%

NET FAAC 88.11%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.80bn N982.6m N444.9m N570.9m

>

N4.80bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.08bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N80.8bn $62.8m
Domestic External
N2.74bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N4.83bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent 2013 N21.0bn
>
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure
-N0.02bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N38.5bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall
2015 N83.4bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N59.6bn

N4.80bn* N4.83bn* 2017 N100bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 44

Paris
Plaster of

Imo
State
Shrimps, Gypsum Eastern Heartland
Powder
(Plaster of Paris)

Imo has a retinue of options to boosting its serves in part as a septic pool for domestic
books; the state could tap into its status as an urban sewage. The Oguta Lake, if revamped,
oil-producing one with approximately 163 oil holds huge promise for the public purse; careful
wells across 12 locations, as well as exploit its planning, regeneration and investment, could
deposits of natural gas, lead, calcium see it remain a tourist favourite, as well as
carbonate, gypsum and zinc production emerge a prawn production haven.
potential.
Frozen freshwater shrimps generated $1.8bn
Abundant white clay could be transformed into in export sales in 2017, climbing 21.4% from
revenue from ceramics manufacturing, while 2016. Ecuador, Greenland, Canada and
Imo’s limestone could be purposed for industrial Denmark exported freshwater shrimps worth
cement production. In the latter instance, $366.6mn, $323.9mn, $301.7mn and
incentives could be granted to private and public $287.5mn respectively.
entities that construct roads, houses and other
infrastructure, provided they use state- Imo may choose to take advantage of the Oguta
produced cement. Lake, which possesses excellent conditions for
breeding freshwater prawn, and other species.
The global market for gypsum was estimated at The state could potentially export fresh water
$1.49bn in 2016 and is expected to reach shrimps worth $400mn in the near to medium
$3.8bn by 2028, with about 252m tonnes of term.
gypsum powder currently produced worldwide.
Other investment opportunities include
Imo could therefore also diversify its economy chemical production, which could serve the
around its ceramic and gypsum industry. steady demand for industrial feedstock from the
Already, the state has made some inroads in the oil and gas sector. Oil palm cultivation could also
production and export of Plaster of Paris, an see a boost, if Imo’s equatorial rain forest belt
important commodity used in the ceramic and with an average annual rainfall of 3,100 mm is
construction industry. exploited responsibly.

Plaster of Paris is used in the making of toys

and statues, chalk crayons, gypsum plaster
boards, and decorative picture frames, as well
as a wide range of applications in the interior
decoration of buildings - all markets that Imo
can corner a share of.

Imo may also decide to reverse the current

situation where its largest natural lake now
North West
2018 Edition State of States 46

JIGAWA KANO KATSINA

BEEF TEXTILE, APPAREL COTTON

& FOOTWEAR
Jigawa can learn from the US
Kano could exploit the Katsina could rebuild its
beef sector and deliberately
availability of cow leather in economy around cotton,
become the biggest beef
the North, petrochemicals in which is one of its foremost
exporter in Africa.
the South, as well as her tradable commodities. The
unique location and human state may aim for a yearly
The United States of America
capital, to become a net output of five million bales, to
is the largest exporter of beef,
exporter of Textile, Apparel corner an estimated $12bn
with sales projected to be in the
and Footwear from the global market for
region of 331 million kg in 2018,
cotton.
up from 2017 levels by 12.2%

Population

North West
Export Potential

48,942,307
2016 Estimate (CBN)

KEBBI ZAMFARA SOKOTO

CEMENT

RICE CEMENT
FROZEN FRENCH
With Lagos being the consumer, FRIES, IRON ORE
and Kebbi the producer, this Sokoto must strategically
strategic plan to transform the harness benefits such as having
agriculture ecosystem suggests Zamfara is also positioning one of the largest limestone
Kebbi is eager to take the herself to as a major Irish reserves in Africa, and her
initiative to shore up its potatoes producer, and will substantial deposits of gypsum -
economic prospects. Reports of have to speedily mechanise which is essential feedstock for
industrial flour mills about to be its production chain if it hopes industrial cement production.The
established in Kebbi also to get any earnings from the state seems to have taken the
indicate more related agro- global potato export market, hint, with reports of a new cement
based initiatives are in the which totaled $4.1bn in 2017. manufacturing firm being built via
offing. Public Private Partnership in
Kware local government area.

KADUNA

SOYBEAN
In terms of export, Kaduna could become a big player in the soybean production and export market. Nigeria ranks
15th, with production of soybean in the region of 588,201 tons. Interestingly, global production of soybean in 2016 was
estimated to be approximately 335 million tons. With better agronomy and improved seedlings, Kaduna could
expand production by 5 million tons in the medium term, and expect export revenue worth $1.5bn.
2018 Edition State of States 47

Jigawa Sustainability
Rank 29

Over the last five years, Domestic debt grew annually by 342.95%, recorded at
N1.6bn, N1.57bn and N22.19bn in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively.

In 2018, Jigawa state plans to spend N138.67bn, A review of Jigawa state’s budget for 2017 shows
compared to the N129.87bn cited the previous that its revenue at N51.91bn fell short of its
14
year. Recurrent expenditure estimates of N61.88bn,
against significant Total debt stock of N43.55bn.
Jigawa’s Actual revenue in 2017 was
approximately N51.91bn, with IGR accounting for Despite being an agrarian state with great
only 12.8% of this income. agricultural potential, Jigawa’s already sizeable
Domestic debt grew 73%, from N19bn in 2016,
A whopping 87.19% of all revenue came from the to N33.27bn in 2017.
federation account (FAAC), while IGR was a
modest N6.65bn and N3.54bn in 2017 and 2016 Over the last five years, Domestic debt grew
respectively. annually by 342.95%, recorded at N1.6bn,
N1.57bn and N22.19bn in 2013, 2014 and
In terms of IGR per capita, Jigawa state could only 2015 respectively.
generate N1141 per head in 2017 - about a third
behind the average achieved by its peers. External debt at $33.5mn (for 2017) is also on the
up, from 2016 levels of $32.4mn. It is evident that
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) was without the monthly federally-collected revenue
approximately N6.65bn in 2017; a rise from from FAAC, Jigawa’s books will likely remain in
N3.54bn in 2016 level but more of a declining the red. This could impede essential
trend, when figures of N9.76bn, N6.27bn and infrastructural development for its people and
N5.08bn in 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively region.
are taken into account.

14
https://jigawastate.gov.ng/news/2017/11/29/the-year-2018-appropriation-bill-presentation-to-the-jigawa-state-house-of-
assembly-by-his-excellency-muhammad-badaru-abubakar-mon-mni/
2018 Edition State of States 48

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.80bn N4.67bn N4.73bn N4.63bn N4.98bn N4.94bn

Jigawa State
The New World Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N64.1bn 2013 N9.76bn 2013 N73.8bn
2014 N58.0bn 2014 N6.27bn 2014 N64.3bn
2015 N44.7bn 2015 N5.08bn 2015 N49.8bn
2016 N36.2bn 2016 N3.54bn 2016 N39.8bn
2017 N45.3bn 2017 N6.65bn 2017 N51.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 10.37%

NET FAAC 89.63%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.73bn N1.05bn Nil N554.2m

>

N5.35bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.02bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N33.3bn $33.5m
Domestic External
N3.95bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.96bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N7.33bn
>
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)

-N0.62bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N8.03bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall
2015 N28.9bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N15.4bn

N5.35bn* N5.96bn* 2017 N43.5bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 49

Jigawa State
Beef The New World

We advise that Jigawa’s best chances lie in the The state could also become a net beef exporter.
expansion of its agricultural produce base. As part The United States of America is the largest
of its efforts to replace subsistence farming with exporter of beef, with sales projected to be in the
commercial agriculture, the state government region of 331 million kg in 2018, up from 2017
introduced a cluster farming initiative, where four levels by 12.2%. The US exports beef to 99
target crops (rice, groundnuts, sesame, and soya different countries and Japan is the top
beans) were identified as core areas of destination, followed by South Korea and Mexico.
competitive advantage upon which Jigawa can Jigawa can learn from the US beef sector and
boost revenue figures. deliberately become the biggest beef exporter in
Africa.
We concur with established estimates that the
introduction of this scheme could result in an But caution must be exercised. Though global
average yield of 10 tons per hectare of rice in the consumption of beef came to 58 billion kg of beef
next few years. in 2016, consumption is however low in Africa.
The growth and investment opportunity for beef in
Jigawa is right to also merge industrial-scale Africa is an intricate one. Beef consumption per
agriculture with manufacturing in these areas: the capita in Africa between 1990 and 2010 has
Jigawa Tomato and Citrus Processing model farm grown minimally, rising to about 10kg per annum,
located at Kazaure; the Jigawa State Flour Mills still trailing other regions - Uruguay, Argentina and
and allied products, which will be processing Hong Kong consumed more than 45kg of beef
grains into flour and grits; the Jigawa State Dairy per capita.
Products and model farm at Birnin Kudu; the
Sugar Processing Company at Sara as well as the However, with Africa’s economies expected to
Atafi Rice Processing Company at Hadejia for expand in the coming years, beef consumption
paddy rice, which have all been completed and per capita is expected to grow considerably and
reported as functioning. Jigawa stands to benefit if market expansion is
aligned with policy, for maximum profitability.
The next few months and indeed years could see
a turnaround of Jigawa’s fortunes, provided she
maintains, and expands upon these initiatives. Jigawa has also shown a penchant for renewable
energy sources, by mounting wind turbines in its
We strongly recommend that the proposed grazing reserves. We recommend that the state
Fertiliser Manufacturing Industry; Meat must toe this path aggressively; turbines could
Processing Industry and Sheet Glass generate approximately 3MW of electricity,
Manufacturing Industry are completed on time meaning Jigawa may be on course to potentially
and are fully functional. supply close to 5,000MW into the desperately
underserved Nigerian energy market.
This could attract more investors, provided the
ongoing electrification of villages and towns to the
national grid system by the Jigawa State Rural
Electricity Board continues apace.
2018 Edition State of States 50

Kaduna Sustainability
Rank 14
On the flip side, Kaduna may need to develop a sustainable path to financing its
infrastructure plans in the near term. One of several solutions would be improving
its IGR per capita, which amounts to N3,215.

Kaduna has proposed a spend of N216.65bn in Recurrent expenditure projections for Kaduna in
2018, some 60.56% of which is allocated to 2018 are pegged at N85.44bn, an increase from
Capital expenditure (N131.21bn). 2017 budgetary projections of N83.47bn.

This budget is planned on the back of revenue A breakdown of the state’s Recurrent expenditure
uptake of N91.03bn in 2018, which is N3.59bn shows that Personnel costs and Overheads cost
lower than 2017 budget projections of for 2018 are N42bn and N43.44bn respectively.
N94.62bn.
When Actual revenue (N77.34bn) for Kaduna in
The 2018 budget projections may be overly 2017 is compared with its much higher Recurrent
optimistic, as IGR was projected at N50.23bn for expenditure projections for the same year (
fiscal year 2017 but in actual fact, the state could N83.47bn), the conclusion is that the state may
only collect N26.53bn. be edging further towards borrowing.

Notwithstanding this shortcoming, Kaduna has Total debt is in the region of N156.92bn, while
made some progress in terms of IGR, which is Domestic debt - at N83.83bn in 2017 - is on a
projected to grow by 61.78% (or N16.39bn) to steep rise, from N9.83bn in 2013. Kaduna’s
N42.92bn in 2018. Domestic debt grew at an average annual rate of
81.97% between 2013 and 2017, while External
In 2017, Actual IGR receipts for Kaduna was debt in 2017 came to $282.28mn.
N26.53bn - an improvement from N23bn in
2016, and N13.6bn in 2015. On the flip side, Kaduna may need to develop a
sustainable path to financing its infrastructure
As Kaduna’s wage bill was reduced from plans in the near term. One of several solutions
N26.8bn in 2015 to N21.8bn in 2016, the state’s would be improving its IGR per capita, which
IGR alone can offset its monetary obligations to amounts to N3,215.
civil servants. However, Actual spending on Non-
Staff Recurrent expenditure (Overheads) jumped
to N26.2bn in 2016, a sharp rise from the
N18.6bn recorded in 2015.

The sum of these figures shows that without near-

perfect revenue collection, the expenditure
component of Kaduna’s budget could become
unrealistic.
2018 Edition State of States 51

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N5.48bn N5.34bn N5.39bn N5.32bn N5.68bn N5.64bn

Kaduna State Jan Feb Mar April May June

Centre of Learning

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N69.9bn 2013 N10.9bn 2013 N80.9bn
2014 N62.9bn 2014 N12.8bn 2014 N75.8bn
2015 N48.6bn 2015 N11.5bn 2015 N60.2bn
2016 N39.9bn 2016 N17.1bn 2016 N56.9bn
2017 N50.8bn 2017 N26.5bn 2017 N77.3bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 28.76%

NET FAAC 71.24%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N4.21bn N1.26bn Nil N2.21bn

>

N7.69bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N3.50bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N83.8bn $238.3m
Domestic External
N3.62bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N7.12bn*
(Jan-June 2018)
2018 Monthly Estimates
Revenue Recurrent Total Debt Stock
(Income) Expenditure
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
2013 N48.3bn
> N0.57bn

Ability to Meet Excess

2014 N59.1bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N94.5bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N107.4bn
N7.69bn* N7.12bn* 2017 N156.9bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 52

Soybean Kaduna State

Centre of Learning

Kaduna’s strong agrarian economy could be soybean in the region of 588,201 tons.
pushed towards greater profitability if the Interestingly, global production of soybean in
government pursues collaborations with the 2016 was estimated to be approximately 335
organised private sector to restart some of its million tons. With better agronomy and
comatose agro-allied factories. improved seedlings, Kaduna could expand
production by 5 million tons in the medium term,
The state can also enjoy revenue from its vast and expect export revenue worth $1.5bn.
graphite deposits. The global graphite market
was valued at $13.004bn in 2015, and is Kaduna will also need to revitalise its 17 grazing
projected to reach $18.7bn by 2022. Graphite reserves sitting atop some 172,000 hectares;
is flexible in nature and has both metallic and tangible investment in fences, irrigation and the
non-metallic properties, which makes it planting of legumes and grass, as well as
appropriate for a diverse range of industrial resolving the longstanding security challenges
applications. around grazing rights will be critical, if the state
hopes to retain its cattle and pull investors in.
The non-metallic properties of graphite include
high thermal resistance, chemical inertness, Finally, we advise Kaduna to leverage on the
and lubricity, while the metallic properties Nigerian pipeline transportation system which
include electrical and thermal conductivity. brings crude from the Niger Delta oil fields, to
build a hydro-carbon manufacturing base.
Further afield, Kaduna is an important junction
on Nigeria’s narrow gauge railway network – a Kaduna is also connected by road and rail to
branch line connects the Lagos–Nguru Railway Abuja, and she could therefore consolidate
to the Port Harcourt–Maiduguri Railway, plans to become a net exporter of food and
strategically positioning the state as a quality manufacturing products to Nigeria’s
commercial hub. rapidly expanding capital.

Kaduna could leverage on these dynamics to

build the requisite logistical support
infrastructure that ensures it emerges a service
center for the northern region. This will ensure
Kaduna benefits massively from Nigeria’s drive
to become a net exporter of agricultural and
manufacturing products.

In terms of export, Kaduna could become a big

player in the soybean production and export
market. Nigeria ranks 15th, with production of
2018 Edition State of States 53

Kano Sustainability
Rank 7

Kano must therefore check its Overhead costs, reform its tax collection
processes as well as revive and diversify its agriculture, trade and manufacturing-
centred economy.

Kano state, the commercial nerve center of In 2017, Total IGR was N42.24bn, from
Northern Nigeria and the country’s second largest N30.96bn in 2016; the numbers recorded for
city has earmarked the sum of N246.61bn as its 2013 and 2014 were N17.14bn and N13.66bn
budget estimate for 2018. respectively.

Recurrent expenditure is expected to gulp A review of fiscal activities in 2017 shows that
N83.43bn - a climb from 2017 budget estimates Total revenue at approximately N107.56bn
of N79.46bn. In particular, Personnel costs are (comprising of Statutory, Value Added Tax and
projected to grow to N56.16bn from N56.66bn in Internally generated revenue) could amply cover
2017, with Overhead costs for 2018 set at Recurrent expenditure, as estimated in Kano’s
N17.54bn - or 21% of Recurrent expenditure. budget.

The Capital component of the budget for the Caution is nevertheless crucial, as the state’s
2018 financial year is pegged at N163.18bn, a Recurrent expenditure is growing, and could exert
figure about 15% higher than the N138.48bn a strain on its debt profile.
estimated for capital expenditure in 2017.
Total debt was N112.67bn at the end of 2017; in
For the 2018 budget to be fully implemented, 2018, Kano is looking to close the deficit by
Kano state is hoping for a revenue uptake of raising more Debt totalling N28.95bn.
N153.86bn - an addition of N6.94bn from 2017
projections of N146.92bn. Domestic debt as at year-end 2017 was
approximately N92.26bn, growing from N21.4bn
With respect to IGR, about N53bn is expected for in 2014; External debt within this period was
2018, compared to 2017 budget projections of approximately $66.53mn.
N49.23bn. These 2018 IGR figures are markedly
above Actual IGR of N42.42bn in 2017. Kano must therefore check its Overhead costs,
reform its tax collection processes as well as
For statutory revenue and Value Added tax, Kano revive and diversify its agriculture, trade and
state is aiming to achieve N73.45bn in 2018, as manufacturing-centred economy.
against N65.14bn in 2017.

Though Kano could only generate IGR per capita

of N3,244 in the 2017 financial year, the state is
growing generating revenue inwards at a fast
pace.
2018 Edition State of States 54

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N6.61bn N6.51bn N6.53bn N6.42bn N6.91bn N6.89bn

Kano
State
Centre of Commerce

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N92.3bn 2013 N17.1bn 2013 N109.4bn
2014 N82.3bn 2014 N13.7bn 2014 N95.9bn
2015 N64.1bn 2015 N13.6bn 2015 N77.7bn
2016 N50.6bn 2016 N30.9bn 2016 N81.5bn
2017 N65.1bn 2017 N42.4bn 2017 N107.6bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 34.72%

NET FAAC 65.28%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N5.04bn N1.61bn Nil N3.53bn

>

N10.2bn*(Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N4.93bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N92.3bn $66.5m
Domestic External
N2.02bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N6.95bn*
(Jan-June 2018)
2018 Monthly Estimates
Revenue Total Debt Stock
(Income) Recurrent
Download: Adamawa State Data (CSV) Expenditure 2013 N42.4bn
> N3.23bn

Ability to Meet Excess 2014 N42.2bn

Monthly Recurrent 2015 N76.4bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N84.6bn
N10.2bn* N6.95bn* 2017 N112.7bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 55

Kano
State
Textile, Apparel Centre of Commerce

& Footwear

The Textile, Apparel and Footwear sub-sector neighbouring states. By boosting investment in
of the Nigerian economy is presently estimated research and modern techniques, Kano could
at N2.02tn, and is expected to grow rapidly on potentially lift cotton yield to above one million
the back of improving discretionary spending. bales per annum.

Kano could exploit the availability of cow leather The state can also capitalise on its irrigation
in the North, petrochemicals in the South, as potentials to increase production of food crops
well as her unique location and human capital, including millet, cowpeas, sorghum, maize and
to become a net exporter of Textile, Apparel rice, opting for the profitable markets on the
and Footwear. Lagos-Kano rail corridor. Another strategy
would be to become a major supplier of animal
Turkey exported clothing and other related feed, to service the booming South-west
accessories (not knit or crochet) worth $6bn in poultry markets.
2017. Should Kano revitalise its manufacturing
base, the state could achieve clothing exports The Sitti-Rimi-Kibiya-Rano conclave, believed
of $2bn in the medium term. to hold significant resources such as laterite
rock, could significantly elevate Kano’s civil
Also, as the worldwide trade in shoes is construction sector, and by extension the
expected to top $371.8bn by 2020, Kano Nigerian economy.
could - in the long term - overtake Vietnam,
which presently exports about $13bn worth of The Riruwai-Dajin Falgore axis, endowed with
goods to the United States and Europe. deposits of lead, zinc, molybdenum, silver,
copper and lithium may also be exploited, to
Indices that Kano can rely on are that: Nigeria’s raise Kano’s economic prospects. In particular,
Ministry of Agriculture estimates there are 19.5 the global demand for lithium-based batteries
million cattle in-country, which could become a across many devices, including phones, laptops
strong base to build the footwear market; and cars creates a greater incentive for Kano to
Africa’s footwear market is now in the region of develop its mining sector and catalyse a much-
$790mn, and is projected to grow at an average needed spike in revenue figures.
rate of 13.5% over the next five years.

Finally, with rapidly expanding household size in

Africa, the footwear market is expected to top
$1.3bn in 2022.

Kano must also strive to rebuild its industrial

base, which was once anchored around the
textile mills, and pursue new trade routes with
2018 Edition State of States 56

Katsina Sustainability
Rank 13

The state will need to manage its debt accumulation, which has grown at an
average of 527.13% per annum, over the last five years.

Katsina state proposes a budget totalling Katsina’s reliance on handouts from the
N213.64bn in 2018, with 75.57% (or federation is reflected in its debt profile.
N161.44bn) slated for Capital expenditure.
Total debt as at year-end 2017 was N59.93bn,
Revenue for 2018 is expected to come to and Domestic debt grew astronomically to
N131.1bn. This is a somewhat overly optimistic N31.12bn in 2017, from N269.65mn in 2013.
figure, as it is N78.73bn higher than Actual Domestic debt in 2014 and 2015 was N586.7mn
revenue in 2017, which was N52.37bn. and N11.45bn respectively, while External debt
for Katsina was $67.86mn for the 2017 financial
Katsina’s revenue for 2017 is amply below her year.
Recurrent expenditure obligations of N47.73bn,
as estimated in the budget. The state will need to manage its debt
accumulation, which has grown at an average of
However, in planning to spend N52.19bn on 527.13% per annum, over the last five years.
Recurrent expenditure in 2018, unless Actual
revenue rates markedly increase, Kaduna may be A coherent strategy devoid of semantics and
unable to offset her Recurrent obligations. heavy on implementation on how best to grow IGR
is therefore vital, and more sustainable in the long-
Internally generated revenue (IGR) contributed a term.
meagre 11.51% to Katsina’s revenue pool in
2017, and the state has Nigeria’s second lowest
IGR per capita, at N770 per person.

In 2017, IGR was N6.03bn lower than 2013 and

2014 levels of N6.85bn and N6.22bn
respectively; figures for 2015 were recorded at
N5.79bn.
2018 Edition State of States 57

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.72bn N4.64bn N4.64bn N4.58bn N4.92bn N4.89bn

Katsina
State
Home of Hospitality
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N69.5bn 2013 N6.85bn 2013 N76.4bn
2014 N63.4bn 2014 N6.22bn 2014 N69.6bn
2015 N48.4bn 2015 N5.79bn 2015 N54.2bn
2016 N38.4bn 2016 N5.55bn 2016 N43.9bn
2017 N46.3bn 2017 N6.03bn 2017 N52.4bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 9.60%

NET FAAC 90.40%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.58bn N1.15bn Nil N502.5m

>

N5.24bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.06bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N31.1bn $67.9m
Domestic External
N2.23bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N4.28bn*
(Jan-June 2018)
2018 Monthly Estimates
Revenue Total Debt Stock
(Income) Recurrent
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
Expenditure 2013 N12.0bn
> N0.95bn

Ability to Meet Excess

2014 N14.9bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015
Expenditure N25.7bn
Commitments 2016 N26.9bn
N5.24bn* N4.28bn* 2017 N51.9bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 58

Katsina
State
Cotton Home of Hospitality

Katsina could rebuild its economy around electricity generation could leapfrog Katsina
cotton, which is one of its foremost tradable into becoming a manufacturing and renewable
commodities. The state may aim for a yearly energy hub. In the near term, these energy
output of five million bales, to corner an sources could be put to use to boost other areas
estimated $12bn from the global market for of revenue.
cotton.
For instance, solar and wind energy could be
The value of cotton exports worldwide is in the used in cattle ranches and the irrigation of
region of $62.8bn, and Asian countries bought farms, thereby ramping up livestock production
nearly two-thirds of this. In 2017, China, and pushing back desert encroachment
Bangladesh, Vietnam and Turkey purchased respectively.
cotton worth US$8.6bn, $5.3bn, $4.2bn and
$3bn respectively. Katsina could go further by exploiting its Silica
Sand and Feldspar deposits, manufacturing
Katsina can disrupt the sector for revenue gains ceramics and glassware that will contribute to
but beyond the cultivation and production of sustaining the Nigerian construction and
seed cotton and lint, the state may also move housing market.
into light manufacturing of cotton-based
products. We also advise Katsina to design a workable
plan that not only covers the exploration and
With its large land mass and climate, Katsina is extraction of the 34 solid minerals within its
also strategically positioned to benefit from the borders, but also foresees the building of a
renewable energy market, whilst making a dent manufacturing base around the resulting
in meeting demands at national level. commodities.

Presently, the state has piloted a 10MW pilot

wind farm project; augmenting this with solar
electricity and ramping up wind-based
2018 Edition State of States 59

Kebbi Sustainability
Rank 16

The state will need to develop a sustainable path to financing its developmental
plans in the near term, away from the vagaries of federal allocations.

Kebbi state has a budget of N151.2bn15 in 2018, Kebbi’s Total debt stood at N63.4bn for 2017,
a jump from 2017 spending estimates of with Domestic debt rising from N852.68mn in
N139.3bn. The biggest proportion ( N108bn) is 2013 to N48.73bn in 2017.
going into Capital expenditure, while the balance
of N42.9bn will be spent on Recurrent Meanwhile, External debt at year-end 2017 was
expenditure. approximately $47.8mn, up from 2016 levels of
$46.1mn.
In 2017, Recurrent expenditure was projected at
N40bn, with N99.1bn cited for Capital This sharp increase in Debt over the last five years
expenditure. A review of the state’s budget has been linked to Kebbi’s over dependence on
performance in 2017 shows that its Actual federation revenue - which dropped due to a fall in
revenue of approximately N44.47bn was crude prices in 2014 and the economic recession
sufficiently below Recurrent expenditure of Nigeria endured in 2016.
N40bn.
Vestiges of these dynamics still remain; in 2017,
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) in Kebbi state IGR contributed only 9.88% to Kebbi’s revenue
over the last five years showed lacklustre growth base, and its GDP per capita was N990.
of 5.97% on average. In real terms, however, IGR
rose from N3.12bn in 2016 to N4.39bn in 2017. The state will need to develop a sustainable path
to financing its developmental plans in the near
For 2013, 2014 and 2015, IGR was N3.73bn, term, away from the vagaries of federal
N3.83bn and N3.59bn respectively. Debt on the allocations.
other hand tended to accelerate faster, averaging
565.22% in annual growth between 2013 and
2017.

15
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/259708-bagudu-signs-n151-2-billion-kebbi-budget-law.html
2018 Edition State of States 60

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

Kebbi N4.31bn N4.19bn N4.28bn N4.19bn N4.49bn N4.46bn

State
Land of Equity

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N58.4bn 2013 N3.73bn 2013 N62.2bn
2014 N53.9bn 2014 N3.83bn 2014 N57.7bn
2015 N40.9bn 2015 N3.59bn 2015 N44.6bn
2016 N31.7bn 2016 N3.13bn 2016 N34.8bn
2017 N40.1bn 2017 N4.39bn 2017 N44.5bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 7.81%

NET FAAC 92.19%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.41bn N914.1m Nil N366.1m

>

N4.69bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.52bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N48.7bn $47.8m
Domestic External
N2.07bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N3.58bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Revenue Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) (Income) 2013 N8.33bn
> N1.10bn Recurrent
Expenditure 2014 N25.2bn
Ability to Meet Excess
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N72.7bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N33.5bn
N4.69bn* N3.58bn* 2017 N63.4bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 61

Kebbi
State
Land of Equity

Rice

Kebbi’s move to embark on large-scale rice Noteworthy is that, India, Thailand and the US
cultivation across 17 of its 21 local government are the biggest rice exporters, with sales
areas could culminate in the production of 70% estimates of $5.5bn, $5.2bn and $1.8bn
of Nigeria’s rice requirements annually. An respectively, in 2016. To join these ranks,
MOU signed in March 2016 with Lagos state Kebbi will need an initial investment in the
resulted in the production of the Lake (Lagos- region of $2bn.
Kebbi) Rice brand.
In the interim, the state must improve its
With Lagos being the consumer, and Kebbi the logistics base by capitalising on its inland
producer, this strategic plan to transform the waterways, rivers and land routes, if it hopes to
agriculture ecosystem suggests Kebbi is eager ensure access to sub-national markets for the
to take the initiative to shore up its economic goods it produces.
prospects.
This is most pertinent because Kebbi is also
Reports of industrial flour mills about to be known for other mineral resources such as Salt,
established in Kebbi also indicate more related Gold, Iron–Ore, Feldspar, Limestone, Quartz,
agro-based initiatives are in the offing. Bauxitic Clay, Manganese, Kaolin and Mica,
which will need to be mined, and transformed
The state could potentially increase production into commodities that generate income.
to 3 million tons in the near term, and sell 60
million bags (of 50kg each). Placing a tax on
each 50kg bag should significantly boost the
state’s IGR.
2018 Edition State of States 62

Sokoto Sustainability
Rank 23
As over 80% of its inhabitants rely on farming, Sokoto should expand its earning
power by various measures, including creating grazing reserves and ranches to
enhance cattle production figures, as well as developing socially-inclusive ways
to tax the 1.05 million workers employed in its informal sectors.

Sokoto has a budget of N220.5bn16 in 2018, and Sokoto’s IGR for 2015 and 2016 was
has admirably allocated almost a third of (26.1%) approximately N6.22bn and N4.54bn
of its spending to the education sector, showing a respectively, with an average annual IGR growth
tangible focus on reversing its status as an rate of 21.05% between 2013 and 2017.
educationally-disadvantaged State.
Its IGR per capita is among the lowest among its
On the other hand, Sokoto has made the curious peers, at N1,804 per head.
decision to spend a greater 30% (or N67.6bn) of We advise Sokoto to look inwards for lasting
the 2018 budget on Recurrent items, while the financial security; already a State whose economy
balance of N152.8bn constitutes Capital is predominantly agro-allied, capital investments
expenditure. around its agricultural sector should be initiated
and /or maintained.
In 2017, Recurrent expenditure estimates of
N63.33bn fell short of Actual revenue, which As over 80% of its inhabitants rely on farming,
came to N50.26bn. This is against a backdrop of Sokoto should expand its earning power by
Total debt worth N38.65bn as at year-end 2017. various measures, including creating grazing
reserves and ranches to enhance cattle
Sokoto’s Domestic debt over 2013 to 2017 has production figures, as well as developing socially-
grown from N5.74bn to N26.03bn - at an annual inclusive ways to tax the 1.05 million workers
average of 48.55%. employed in its informal sectors.

External debt stood at $41.16mn upon the

conclusion of 2017; debt is likely to persist in
growth except the state’s IGR rises significantly.

16
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nwest/258618-tambuwal-signs-sokotos-n220-5-billion-2018-budget.html
2018 Edition State of States 63

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.2bn N4.09bn N4.14bn N4.05bn N4.39bn N4.34bn

Sokoto State
Seat of the Caliphate
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N60.7bn 2013 N5.51bn 2013 N66.2bn
2014 N56.1bn 2014 N5.62bn 2014 N61.8bn
2015 N43.2bn 2015 N6.22bn 2015 N49.4bn
2016 N34.3bn 2016 N4.55bn 2016 N38.8bn
2017 N41.2bn 2017 N9.02bn 2017 N50.2bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 15.17%

NET FAAC 84.83%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.26bn N940.9m Nil N751.6m

>

N4.95bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.08bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N26.0bn $41.2m
Domestic External
N3.55bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.63bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N12.8bn
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) >
Ability to Meet -N0.68bn 2014 N15.8bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N19.9bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N28.5bn
N4.95bn* N5.63bn* 2017 N38.6bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 64

CEMENT

Cement Sokoto State

Seat of the Caliphate

We advise Sokoto to look inwards for lasting reserves in Africa, and her substantial deposits
financial security; it is already a state whose of gypsum - which is essential feedstock for
economy is predominantly agro-allied, and industrial cement production.
capital investments around its agricultural
sector should therefore be encouraged. The state seems to have taken the hint, with
reports of a new cement manufacturing firm
The flood plains of the Rima River are rich in being built via Public Private Partnership in
grainy soil, which is suitable for commercial Kware local government area. In addition,
production of climate-suited crops including available reports note that Sokoto State has
sugar cane, garlic and onions. also entered into another set of arrangements
with the World Bank, to access $6mn to
As home to the Goronyo dam, one of Nigeria’s support mining activities within its borders.
largest, as well as the Shagari and Lugu dams, Stepping in to meet national and regional
Sokoto should ensure these resources operate demand for cement and solid minerals should
at their fullest capacity, providing hydropower therefore be Sokoto’s priority - the ACFTA
needed for irrigation farming, and water supply could open new markets that are under
on an industrial scale. protection, to Nigerian producers in Sokoto.

Particularly encouraging is Sokoto’s Finally, for a State where over 80% of its
partnership with the World Bank on the inhabitants rely on farming, Sokoto should
implementation of the Nigeria Erosion and explore its agricultural resources, creating
Watershed Management Project, which entails grazing reserves and ranches to enhance cattle
the rehabilitation and construction of earth production figures, whilst developing socially-
dams in the State. inclusive ways to tax the 1.05 million workers
employed in its informal sectors.
Sokoto must strategically harness benefits
such as having one of the largest limestone
2018 Edition State of States 65

ZAMFARA Sustainability
Rank 19
Given that the biggest proportion of economic activities occur informally, Zamfara
may need a holistic strategy to capture the informal sector into its tax net;
especially its prominent agricultural sector.

Zamfara state’s fiscal plan for 2018 calls for a External debt was $34.83mn as at the end of
17
total spending of N133bn. 2017. Judging by its 2018 fiscal plan, it is
possible that Zamfara will increase its debt profile
About N86.6bn has been budgeted for to sustain its chequered earnings.
administrative and developmental Capital
projects, while the Recurrent component is Internally-generated revenue (IGR) accounted for
projected to amount to N46.4bn; an increase an abysmal 19.17% to the Actual revenue mix for
from N41bn in 2017. Zamfara in 2017.

Total Revenue for Zamfara (which comprised of At N1,334 per person in 2017, IGR per capita
share of federation revenue and IGR) was also comes across as low, compared to the
approximately N31.4bn in 2017. When compared nationwide average of N3,939 per person.
with Recurrent expenditure obligations of N41bn
for that year’s budget, Yobe had a recurrent deficit However, efforts to grow IGR seem to be yielding
of N9.58bn. gains; IGR grew from 2013 level of N3.04bn to
N6.02bn in 2017.
This significant imbalance puts enormous
pressure of the state purse, likely a factor in why In 2014, 2015 and 2016, IGR was N3.15bn,
Zamfara’s debt stood at N80.61bn by year-end N2.74bn and N4.77bn respectively.
2017.
Given that the biggest proportion of economic
Domestic debt grew at an average annual rate of activities occur informally, Zamfara may need a
75.79% between 2013 and 2017, from holistic strategy to capture the informal sector into
N28.22bn, to N69.92bn respectively. In 2014, its tax net; especially its prominent agricultural
2015 and 2016, Domestic debt stock was sector.
N11.07bn, N46.28bn and N58.32bn
respectively.

17
h http://sunnewsonline.com/zamfara-gov-signs-n133b-2018-budget-into-law/
2018 Edition State of States 66

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N3.11bn N3.01bn N3.05bn N2.97bn N3.27bn N3.23bn

Zamfara
State
Farming is Our Pride

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N56.8bn 2013 N3.04bn 2013 N59.9bn
2014 N51.3bn 2014 N3.15bn 2014 N54.4bn
2015 N32.1bn 2015 N2.74bn 2015 N34.8bn
2016 N22.9bn 2016 N4.78bn 2016 N27.7bn
2017 N25.4bn 2017 N6.02bn 2017 N31.4bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 13.91%

NET FAAC 86.09%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.20bn N903.2m Nil N501.9m

>

N3.61bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.10bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N69.9bn $34.8m
Domestic External
N1.77bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N3.87bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

2013 N33.4bn
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
> Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure
Ability to Meet 2014 N17.5bn
-N0.26bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015
Expenditure N53.2bn
Excess
Commitments 2016 N50.9bn
N3.61bn* N3.87bn* 2017 N80.6bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 67

Zamfara
FROZEN FRENCH
State
Farming is Our Pride
FRIES, IRON ORE

We argue that a priority for Zamfara should be deposits. Iron Ore exporters sold approximately
sustainable investments to improve yield for the $94.9bn worth of the commodity in 2017,
corn, beans and legumes the state is already down by a third (-33.6%) from 2013, when iron
known for. ore shipments were valued at $143bn.

Zamfara is also positioning herself to as a major As African suppliers accounted for a meagre
Irish potatoes producer, and will have to 6.1% of exports, Zamfara could potentially
speedily mechanise its production chain if it become a major exporter of the commodity.
hopes to get any earnings from the global
potato export market, which totaled $4.1bn in Noteworthy is that the state is investing in a
2017. 25MW greenfield solar power project spanning
50 hectares, on the outskirts of the city of
Zamfara’s economic plan going forward should Gusau. As this plant could potentially generate
also take into account its large deposits of solid significant electricity in the near term, this could
minerals including gold, copper, iron ore, transform the state into an agro-allied
tantalite and manganese, to build an industrial manufacturing hub.
economy around these commodities.
Zamfara would do well to ensure kickoff and
As the state is also becoming a powerhouse in sustainability of this project is achieved. The
terms of gold mining, we advise that Zamfara state could also exploit this renewable energy
should formalise its mining cycle, to prevent any potential to close the energy gap in the mining
recurrence of the lead poisoning epidemics sector within its region, creating jobs, booming
which ravaged communities, and still blights associated industries and commonwealth for
victims. all.

The state has huge potential in steel

production, given its abundant iron-ore
North East
2018 Edition State of States 69

YOBE BAUCHI GOMBE

BEEF SUGAR COTTON

Bauchi’s significant economic
Yobe will have to develop a plan is one of its most recent: a
public-private partnership that Gombe can also exploit its solid
grazing reserve or ranching mineral-based resources,
system that can hold millions of aims to place 60,000 hectares of
land under sugarcane cultivation. including those to do with the
herd of cattle, whilst exploiting manufacture of paints, ceramics,
its wind and solar potentials to blocks, glass/bottles, as well as
irrigate the grazing fields. The complement to this is a
proposed sugar milling plant and metal fabrication, jewelry and
refinery that will transform gem cutting.
With careful planning and
further investment in security, industrial feedstock into 5,000
Yobe could attain economic metric tons of sugar per day,
independence. creating at least 5,000 direct and
indirect employment opportunities
immediately.

Population

North East
Export Potential

26,263,866
2016 Estimate (CBN)

BORNO ADAMAWA TARABA

ALFALFA & HONEY RAW SUGAR FISH & RICE

With its approximately five

million hectares of farmland Adamawa must seek to
now well below production, prioritise research on crop As Taraba chooses to diversify
Borno could put 1,000,000 management approaches in its sources of revenue, we
hectares of deserted lands its sugarcane fields, which make a case for transparency
under alfalfa cultivation, as a could take crop yield beyond and sustainability of the N2bn
means to attract cattle into 100 tonnes per hectare, Green House project, which
its grazing area.As bees are potentially making the state a has daily production estimates
known to thrive well on net exporter of raw sugar. of five tonnes of cucumber,
alfalfa plantations, Borno Raw cane sugar is becoming pepper, lettuce and tomatoes.
could also work towards more popular in Europe, as
achieving net exporter consumers grow increasingly
status in the global honey interested in natural and
trade; estimated at $6.6bn in unrefined food products.
2016.
2018 Edition State of States 70

Adamawa Sustainability
Rank 33
To attain financial viability, Adamawa may need to evaluate the re-workings of its tax collection
systems. Presently, the state’s IGR per capita is one of the lowest in Nigeria - coming to
N1460 per annum, when factored using its 2016 estimated population.

Adamawa is planning to spend N177.9bn in Already, Domestic debt which was N62.15bn as
2018.18 The state’s priorities include at end-2016 is now N69.61bn in 2017; a rise of
infrastructural development, education, health, 163%, from 2014 levels of N26.44bn.
agriculture, housing and urban development. Adamawa’s Domestic debt has grown between
Renowned for the cultivation of cotton, 2013 and 2017 at an average of 46.92% per
groundnuts, maize, yam, guinea corn, millet and annum, while IGR has not risen at the same pace;
rice, Adamawa nevertheless continues to operate IGR grew at a modest annual average of 11.66%
at suboptimal levels, partly due to revenue within the same five-year period.
shortage.
Adamawa’s External debt is also growing in
Total revenue in 2017 was N43.6bn; Adamawa’s tandem; as at December 2017, the state was
fiscal plan in this year was highly dependent on indebted to the tune of $94.57mn, up from the
statutory revenue - approximately 85.79% of the $83.7mn recorded for 2016.
state’s revenue came from FAAC disbursements.
To attain financial viability, Adamawa may need to
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) for Adamawa evaluate the re-workings of its tax collection
was N6.2bn in 2017 - a rise from N5.78bn in systems. Presently, the state’s IGR per capita is
2016. For 2013, 2014 and 2015, IGR was one of the lowest in Nigeria - coming to N1460
N4.15bn, N4.62bn and N4.4bn respectively. per annum, when factored using its 2016
estimated population.
Most crucial is that Adamawa’s Total revenue was
N43.64bn in 2017. This is a shortfall of significant The state may also have to align her budget with
proportions, considering her fiscal authorities current realities - working with a spending plan of
planned a total Recurrent expenditure of N177.9bn when revenue projections (of N50bn)
N60.06bn. are more than three times less, will likely retard
fiscal progress.
In 2018, Adamawa is looking to spend
N177.9bn, despite revenue not expected to grow
beyond the N50bn threshold - which leaves the
credibility of Adamawa’s budget instruments as a
planning tool in question.

If the state decides to press on with its fiscal plan,

then its debt profile and loan obligations may rise
as well, potentially limiting Adamawa’s ability to
dedicate future revenue wholly to developmental
agenda.

18
http://nigeriana.news/adamawa-assembly-approves-2018-budget.html
2018 Edition State of States 71

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.06bn
Adamawa N3.86bn N3.91bn N3.77bn
N4.09bn N4.04bn
State
Highest Peak of the Nation

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N57.8bn 2013 N4.15bn 2013 N61.9bn
2014 N50.9bn 2014 N4.99bn 2014 N55.9bn
2015 N37.8bn 2015 N4.45bn 2015 N42.2bn
2016 N29.8bn 2016 N5.79bn 2016 N35.5bn
2017 N37.4bn 2017 N6.20bn 2017 N43.6bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 11.6%

NET FAAC 88.4%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.04bn N914.9m Nil N516.8m

>

N4.47bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.74bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N69.6bn $94.6m
Domestic External
N3.76bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N6.50bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent 2013 N20.9bn
>
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure
Ability to Meet -N2.03bn 2014 N34.9bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N56.9bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N55.8bn
N4.47bn* N6.50bn* 2017 N98.6bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 72

Adamawa
State
Raw Highest Peak of the Nation

Sugar

To attain fiscal viability, Adamawa may need to However, Adamawa would need an initial
evaluate the workings of its tax collection investment in the region of $1bn to set these
systems; majority of her population work in the plans in motion.
informal sector and therefore, innovative ways
to capture them into the tax bracket are Also, Sugarcane Tops (SCT), a major
possible. Worth nothing here is that the byproduct of sugarcane, is becoming a major
collection of tax imposes a fiscal responsibility source of feed for cattle. As about 21 tons of
on states to deliver premium services to the SCT produced per hectare is sufficient to feed a
people. cow for a year, Adamawa can immediately
leverage on this resource, to expand its
The Kiri dam, which was completed in 1982, livestock size and rise through the ranks into a
still has the potential to become a hydroelectric net exporter of meat and meat products.
power plant generating between 35MW to
50MW. With additional investments in drip We however advise the adoption of an
irrigation systems and other renewable agriculture marketing board first, to make it
energies, Kiri could simultaneously irrigate easier for the bulk purchase of associated
close to 500,000 hectares of land. produce and commodities. This would be
augmented with the development of a
Prospects are also deliverable via the Adamawa transportation plan around the logistics needs
savanna sugarcane plantation, which sits on of the agriculture sector.
approximately 36,000 hectares, and presently
employs approximately 5,000 workers. Nigeria’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates there
are 19.5 million cattle in Nigeria; Adamawa
In this regard, Adamawa must seek to prioritise could potentially generate up to N30bn and add
research on crop management approaches in over five million more cattle, if it incentivizes its
its sugarcane fields, which could take crop yield 30 grazing reserves, as well as improves herd
beyond 100 tonnes per hectare, potentially size and quality.
making the state a net exporter of raw sugar.
Raw cane sugar is becoming more popular in Down the value chain, investments into
Europe, as consumers grow increasingly feedlots, modern abattoirs and a central
interested in natural and unrefined food marketplace for all associated raw materials will
products. ensure Adamawa makes a name as a net
supplier and exporter of milk, meat and leather
Given that Europe does not produce any raw into the global commodities markets.
cane sugar and has to import all of the
commodity it uses, Adamawa is better placed to
position itself as supplier and exporter of close
to five million tons of raw sugarcane.
2018 Edition State of States 73

Bauchi Sustainability
Rank 32

Bauchi will need to focus on boosting IGR collection, and simultaneously slowing down its borrowing. It is
also important to rein in Recurrent expenditure and re-work the budgeting system.

Bauchi has a budget of N167.89bn for 2018; In general, between 2013 and 2017, Domestic
about 60% of the budget will be spent on Capital debt grew an average of 49.87% per year; from
items, while the balance will be used to offset N16.8bn to a whopping N74.02b. With regards to
Recurrent expenditure, including personnel cost External debt, Bauchi had racked up $109.8mn,
obligations, paydown overcosts and servicing the which puts the state’s Total debt profile at
state’s Debt. In 2017, the Recurrent expenditure N107.7bn, as at December 2017.
estimates for Bauchi amounted to N58.85bn,
while Actual revenue (from the FAAC and IGR) Bauchi will need to focus on boosting IGR
was significantly lesser, at N43.89bn. collection, and simultaneously slowing down its
borrowing. It is also important to rein in Recurrent
Given these records for 2017, it is unclear how expenditure and re-work the budgeting system.
Bauchi will fund its N167.89bn budget in 2018, The state has the distinction of increasing its 2017
19
as Revenue is not expected to grow above N50bn budget by N2.5bn, and was listed in January
in the near term. The prospects for riding on IGR to 2018 as among states struggling to pay backlogs
make bank are significantly low; at N668 per of civil servants salary, whilst grappling with a
capita, IGR for Bauchi is the lowest in Nigeria. ghost worker problem.20

About 90% of Bauchi’s revenue flows in from the Bauchi is not in isolation; the credibility and
capital of Abuja, meaning the state is chronically usefulness of budgets are being questioned,
dependent on monthly FAAC receipts. Between particularly at the national level. Stakeholders,
2013 and 2017, IGR grew at a yearly average of including citizens, investors, civil society
5.17%. Currently, IGR stands at N4.37bn, falling organisations and development partners are now
from N8.68bn in 2016. taking more than a passing interest in state
governments and the administration of public
It is thus no surprise that the state is reliant on funds.
donor funds, such as its plans to build and/or
rehabilitate 1,000 kilometers of rural roads
through the support of the World Bank.

Other figures force the argument that Bauchi’s

financial obligations may grow further; the state’s
Domestic debt stood at N69.99bn at the end of
2016, growing from N57.7bn in 2015.

19
https://www.dailytrust.com.ng/news/bauchi/bauchi-assembly-increases-2017-budget-by-n2-5bn/187257.html
20
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/01/many-states-still-owe-workers-salaries-despite-bailout-funds-survey/
2018 Edition State of States 74

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.52bn N4.29bn N4.22bn N4.21bn N4.27bn N4.08bn

Bauchi State
Pearl of Tourism Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N64.5bn 2013 N4.94bn 2013 N69.5bn
2014 N57.3bn 2014 N4.85bn 2014 N62.1bn
2015 N41.2bn 2015 N5.39bn 2015 N46.6bn
2016 N32.4bn 2016 N8.68bn 2016 N41.1bn
2017 N39.5bn 2017 N4.37bn 2017 N43.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 7.86%

NET FAAC 92.14%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.23bn N1.04bn Nil N364.1m

>

N4.63bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.38bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N74.02bn $109.8m
Domestic External
N3.22bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.59bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Revenue Recurrent
Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) (Income) Expenditure 2013 N28.1bn
>
N0.96bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N43.8bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall
2015 N74.5bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N71.9bn
N4.63bn* N5.59bn* 2017 N107.7bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 75

Sugar Bauchi State

Pearl of Tourism
Cane

Bauchi’s significant economic plan is one of its Bauchi could emulate Brazil, Thailand, France
most recent: a public-private partnership that and Guatemala, who exported sugar worth
aims to place 60,000 hectares of land under $11.4bn, $2.6bn, $1.3bn and $826.2mn in
sugarcane cultivation. 2017 respectively.

The complement to this is a proposed sugar Sugar exports totaled US$27.6bn in 2017;
milling plant and refinery that will transform Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for
industrial feedstock into 5,000 metric tons of the highest amount of exports - their shipments
sugar per day, creating at least 5,000 direct amounted to $14.3bn.
and indirect employment opportunities
immediately. Bauchi may also rely on its Yankari National
Park to rake in revenue. As home to several
To raise its earning potential, Bauchi should natural warm water springs, as well as a wide
follow through on the Kafin Zaki dam, which variety of flora and fauna, these renowned
aims to put 120,000 hectares of arable land reserves of about 2,244 square kilometres will
under irrigation. The project would also support increase net spending from Nigerians and
the production of one million tons of sugarcane foreign tourists, provided the Internet and other
annually, with over one million jobs in agro-allied multimedia channels are used to professionally
industries. promote Yankari, and security is guaranteed
and enforced.
The state will need investment worth $1.8bn to
put the dam and irrigated land to full use, but With the requisite marketing, investments and
provided efficiency and accountability are maintenance culture, Bauchi could achieve
optimised, the project should prove a foreign earnings of $500mn annually.
worthwhile venture.
2018 Edition State of States 76

Borno Sustainability
Rank 28
Borno may incur more debt in the nearest future as it tries to revive the local
economy amid this checkered battle against insurgency within its borders.
Essential healthcare, education and administrative infrastructure are being
rebuilt.

Borno State, Nigeria’s second-largest by land Borno may incur more debt in the nearest future
area, is planning to spend N181bn over 2018.21 as it tries to revive the local economy amid this
checkered battle against insurgency within its
Its Recurrent expenditure in the 2017 financial borders. Essential healthcare, education and
year was approximately N59.6bn, notably below administrative infrastructure are being rebuilt.
Actual revenue estimated at N51.52bn.
Approximately 90.33% of Borno’s revenue in
Going by these 2017 numbers, it may be 2017 was from the FAAC - as statutory revenue.
impossible for Borno to meet the projected
Recurrent expenditure commitments as contained The state’s IGR grew to N4.98bn, from 2016
in its 2018 budget. Aiming to spend N181bn in levels of N2.68bn; in 2013, 2014 and 2015, IGR
2018 when revenue is estimated at a far off was N2.13bn, N2.76bn and N3.53bn
N65bn may create and/or exacerbate challenges respectively.
for the state in the near to medium term.
Over 2013 to 2017, though IGR for Borno grew at
Borno’s Domestic debt rose at an average rate of an annual average of 29.84%, revenue
26.65% yearly, between 2013 and 2017; generation rates in general remain abysmal.
specifically from N23.94bn in 2013 to N54.04bn
in 2017. When calculated with its projected population, IGR
per capita for 2017 was approximately N850 per
For 2014, 2014 and 2015, Domestic debt was head. Comparing this figure to states like Benue
N22.3bn, N22.34bn and N30.93bn in and Anambra (which have roughly the same
respectively. population and bring in IGR at N2,159 and
N3,141 per head respectively), it is clear Borno
While External debt stood at $22.59mn as at needs to conceptualise and develop a working
December 2017, overall, the state’s Total debt plan on how it can improve its fiscal independence.
was approximately N60.97bn in 2017. Borno is in
a distinctly unfortunate position due to persistent
attacks by terrorist organisation Boko Haram.
Over about a decade, Boko Haram has destroyed
22
property worth $5.2bn.

21
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/regional/nnorth-east/257826-borno-governor-signs-n181-2-billion-budget-2018.html
22
https://www.newsweek.com/cost-terrorism-boko-haram-nigeria-648854
2018 Edition State of States 77

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N5.01bn N4.87bn N4.93bn N4.84bn N5.21bn N5.15bn

Borno State
Home of Peace Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N68.4bn 2013 N2.13bn 2013 N70.6bn
2014 N63.2bn 2014 N2.76bn 2014 N65.9bn
2015 N48.2bn 2015 N3.53bn 2015 N51.8bn
2016 N36.9bn 2016 N2.68bn 2016 N39.6bn
2017 N46.5bn 2017 N4.98bn 2017 N51.5bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 7.66%

NET FAAC 92.34%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N4.02bn N982.0m Nil N415.3m

>

N5.42bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.68bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N54.0bn $22.6m
Domestic External
N2.59bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.27bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Revenue
Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) (Income) Recurrent 2013 N26.4bn
> N0.16bn Expenditure
Ability to Meet 2014 N26.5bn
Excess
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N26.9bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N52.9bn

N5.42bn* N5.27bn* 2017 N60.9bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 78

Alfafa & Borno State

Home of Peace
Honey

With Domestic debt of N30.9bn as at end- Interestingly, US exports of alfalfa to China

December 2016, Borno may in the nearest were pegged at 1.5 million metric tons
future incur more debt, as it tries to revive (worth $417mn) in 2016. Borno could
the economy in the aftermath of a seeming export five million tons of the legume
decline of insurgency within its borders. worldwide, potentially cornering $2bn in
profits over the next few years.
Though the prospects of regaining financial
security are directly hinged on the Federal As bees are known to thrive well on alfalfa
government’s ongoing anti-insurgency war, plantations, Borno could also work towards
the state government should take the achieving net exporter status in the global
viewpoint that post-crisis development honey trade; estimated at $6.6bn in 2016.
creates opportunities for growth.
Here, the state may deploy funding towards
With its approximately five million hectares large-scale pollination of flowering plants,
of farmland now well below production, which could be added to its alfalfa
Borno could put 1,000,000 hectares of plantations, to ensure a balanced
deserted lands under alfalfa cultivation, as a ecosystem and nutritional grazing.
means to attract cattle into its grazing area.
Significant investments will also be required
for the protection of farmlands – the primary
driver of the economy.
2018 Edition State of States 79

Gombe Sustainability
Rank 25
To boost earnings, the state could take advantage of its relative peaceful status to
attract international firms within the extractives sector aiming to set up shop in the
Niger Delta.

Gombe state, with considerable prospects for Noteworthy is that the government has embarked
tourism, is planning to spend N114bn in 2018,23 on remedial plans, such as the Industrial Policy of
up from 2017 estimates of N85bn. Gombe State and on the Gombe State Investment
Guide. However, measurable progress is
The budget schedules N52.97bn for Recurrent imperative on these projects, while Recurrent
items, and is hinged on a revenue uptake of expenditure and debt accumulation must be
N73.07bn. reduced in the near term.

However, Actual revenue in 2017 for Gombe was The state’s Domestic debt grew at an annual
N36.51bn, while Recurrent expenditure average rate of 15.89% from 2013 to 2017, with
estimates for 2017 amounted to N46.89bn. The its IGR growing at 16.79%. If this continues, it
state’s revenue was insufficient to meet its means Recurrent expenditure may skyrocket, as
Recurrent expenditure commitments as projected Debt servicing costs become elevated.
in 2017 budget, and currently, the fiscal plan for
2018 seems to be adhering to this precedent. Domestic debt for Gombe amounted to N41.9bn
as at December 2017, which was a significant rise
The consequences could be far-reaching, as from the N27.99bn recorded in 2013. External
Gombe’s total debt stock was pegged at debt was $31.19mn, by year-end 2017.
N53.96bn as at 2017.
Gombe’s vast agricultural potential and numerous
In 2017, IGR contributed only 16.88% to the mineral resources constitute invaluable assets for
revenue mix of the state; Gombe is extremely economic investments. If properly harnessed,
reliant on federation revenue ( FAAC). then IGR should show a more positive trend in the
medium to long term.
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) was N5.27bn
by the end of fiscal year 2017, from N2.94bn in
2016. Gombe’s IGR per capita is N1,619 per
head, which is much lower than the average
(N3,939) for all 36 states in Nigeria.

23
http://www.tribuneonlineng.com/gombe-assembly-passes-2018-budget-n114-billion/
2018 Edition State of States 80

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N3.46bn N3.33bn N3.78bn N3.29bn N3.62bn N3.55bn

Gombe
State
Jewel of the Savannah
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N46.9bn 2013 N3.87bn 2013 N50.9bn
2014 N42.1bn 2014 N5.19bn 2014 N47.3bn
2015 N29.5bn 2015 N4.78bn 2015 N34.3bn
2016 N22.4bn 2016 N2.94bn 2016 N25.4bn
2017 N31.2bn 2017 N5.27bn 2017 N36.5bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 11.33%

NET FAAC 88.67%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.62bn N822.6m Nil N439.4m

>

N3.88bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.50bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N41.9bn $39.2m
Domestic External
N2.91bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N4.41bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Revenue Recurrent 2013 N33.4bn
> Expenditure
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income)
-N0.54bn
2014 N36.7bn
Ability to Meet Shortfall
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N61.3bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N70.1bn

N3.38bn* N4.41bn* 2017 N53.9bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 81

Gombe
State
Cotton Jewel of the Savannah

Gombe’s people, her vast agricultural potential output for the year (at 65,391,535 tons).
and numerous mineral resources constitute China, Bangladesh,and Vietnam led the import
invaluable assets for economic investments. If chart as at May 2017 with import values of
properly harnessed, particularly for agro-based $7.7bn, $4.7bn and $3.7bn respectively.
and solid mineral based manufacturing
industries, these could ensure the state makes To increase production numbers and improve
a tangible break towards financial security. the downline, Gombe will have to invest in
mechanized farming, quality storage
But first, Gombe must modernize its outlook, as infrastructure, top-notch processing facilities
most of the existing industries within its borders and distribution networks.
were those established long before the state
itself was created. These are mostly agro- Gombe can also exploit its solid mineral-based
based, with the exception of Ashaka Cement. resources, including those to do with the
manufacture of paints, ceramics, blocks,
In 2011, the Bank of Industry approved a loan glass/bottles, as well as metal fabrication,
worth N903.4mn for the development of Micro, jewelry and gem cutting.
Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in
Gombe, 80% of which was specifically In the tourism and hospitality sector, investment
dedicated to agro-processing. Unfortunately, opportunities of note fall under the
very little information exists on the distribution of establishment of hotels, amusement parks,
this loan. zoos, cinemas, as well as museums and art
galleries development. Also pertinent is the
Nevertheless, cotton production still holds need for huge investments in this sector, to
significant promise, as investment in research upgrade the aesthetic and business profile of
and modern techniques could potentially lift Gombe State.
yield upwards, with increased earnings in tow. If
Gombe were willing to put one million hectares
under cotton cultivation alone, its total output
could top five million bales per annum.

For 2016, Nigeria produced 303,057 tons of

cotton, which makes up 0.46% of the global
2018 Edition State of States 82

Taraba Sustainability
Rank 24
Aiming to develop its rich mineral resources, the state is obtaining licenses for
small-scale mining for the Taraba Solid Minerals Development Company and
acquiring 14 lease Exclusive Prospecting Licenses (EPL) to commence joint-
venture exploration partnerships.

Ranked among Nigeria’s agriculturally rich States, contributed only 14.52% to the state’s Total
Taraba is unfortunately plagued by the menace of revenue in 2017.
“tribal herdsmen,” who are accused of killing and
maiming hundreds, including farmers. Internally-generated revenue figures show troughs
and slight peaks, growing from N3.34bn in 2013 to
The local economy has also been affected in part by N5.89bn in 2016 before dropping again to N5.76bn
a resurgence of terrorist groups. Notwithstanding in 2017.
these developments, Taraba appears to be making
cutbacks with its plan to spend N104.3bn24 in 2018, The state’s IGR per capita is also relatively low, at
a drop from the N110.2bn contained in the 2017 N1,880 per person.
budget.
However, it is not all doom and gloom, as Taraba is
This is a welcome move, because Actual Revenue making monthly savings of N500mn, after
for Taraba was N39.69bn in 2017, which is well successfully weeding out ghost workers.
below the state’s Recurrent expenditure obligations
of N49.3bn. In addition, a number of moribund State-owned firms
are reported as being resuscitated, including the
To reconcile this deficit, Taraba may have to Mambilla Beverages Company; Taraba Sugar
undertake further borrowing, but must proceed with Company; Baisa Timber Company and the Taraba
great caution. Cassava Processing Company.

Total debt as at the end of fiscal year 2017 was Aiming to develop its rich mineral resources, the
N68.70bn; Domestic debt grew to N60.85bn in state is obtaining licenses for small-scale mining for
2017, from N13.88bn in 2013. This is a sizeable the Taraba Solid Minerals Development Company
average growth rate of 48.22% per year, between and acquiring 14 lease Exclusive Prospecting
2013 and 2017. Licenses (EPL) to commence joint-venture
exploration partnerships.
Domestic debt in 2014, 2015 and 2016, was
recorded at N14.39bn, N27.65bn and N38.87bn The state must therefore use this fiscal year to face
respectively. the challenge of translating these initiatives to
immediate revenue growth.
External debt was $26.56mn as at the end of 2017,
up from 2016 levels of $21.9mn.

Taraba’s vulnerability to revenue handed down from

the federation is demonstrated by the fact that IGR

24
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2018 Edition State of States 83

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

Taraba N3.77bn N3.64bn N3.68bn N3.64bn N3.89bn N3.87bn

State
Nature's Gift to
the Nation April May
Jan Feb Mar June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N55.9bn 2013 N3.34bn 2013 N59.3bn
2014 N48.9bn 2014 N3.79bn 2014 N52.8bn
2015 N36.7bn 2015 N4.16bn 2015 N40.9bn
2016 N27.4bn 2016 N5.89bn 2016 N33.3bn
2017 N33.9bn 2017 N5.76bn 2017 N39.7bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 11.36%

NET FAAC 88.64%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.92bn N824.9m Nil N480.4m

>

N4.23bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.38bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N60.9bn $26.6m
Domestic External
N1.89bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N4.27bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
2013 N17.6bn
> Revenue
(Income)
Recurrent
Expenditure
Ability to Meet 2014 N18.5bn
-N0.04bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N32.2bn
Expenditure Shortfall
Commitments 2016 N36.2bn

N4.23bn* N4.27bn* 2017 N68.9bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 84

Taraba
State
Fish & Nature's Gift to
the Nation

Rice

As Taraba chooses to diversify its sources of revenue, we make a case for transparency and
sustainability of the N2bn Green House project, which has daily production estimates of five tonnes
of cucumber, pepper, lettuce and tomatoes.

This will largely generate employment and facilitate technology transfer to the State university and
College of Agriculture, which are both in the capital of Jalingo.

Energy generation could also hold a lot of promise for Taraba’s economic prosperity. The proposed
Mambilla Dam, with a reservoir at 1,300 metres (4,300 ft) above sea level, will meet power needs,
as well as boost freshwater fishing and farming.

The export market for frozen fish was worth an estimated $23.7bn in 2017 - European and Asia
countries accounted for the highest export shipments, cornering 33.7% and 32.5% respectively.
Latin America and the Caribbean took a 10% share, while the African market followed at 5.9%.
Taraba may therefore choose to utilise current capacity to export fish worth $1bn worldwide in the
near term.

Hydropower could also transform the state into a major player in rice production, particularly when
augmented with investments in milling infrastructure such as plants, silos and elevators. Taraba
could enter into agreements with others states in Nigeria and beyond - increasing its rice production
numbers to 1 million tons, and potentially boost her IGR takings by N40bn in taxes alone.
2018 Edition State of States 85

Yobe Sustainability
Rank 22

One way to begin is a drastic cut in Overhead costs, as well as a reform of Yobe’s
tax collection and audit processes.

Yobe state has budgeted N92.18bn towards its This may be due the fact that the state’s Recurrent
obligations in 2018, foreseeing a spend of expenditure obligations take a greater hunk of
N45.43bn on Capital expenditure. revenue, leaving little for Capital items that boost
earnings, as well as the added challenge of security
Recurrent expenditure is projected to grow to amid insurgency.
N47.4bn25 in 2018; rising from 2017 levels of
N41.9bn. Given that Actual revenue in 2017 was Yobe’s IGR was N3.6bn, contributing a mere
N43.09bn, Yobe barely met its Recurrent 8.35% of Total revenue in 2017.
expenditure obligations for that year and could
encounter challenges in meeting the higher IGR itself has grown at an annual average rate of
expenditure figures for 2018. 7.07% between 2013 and 2017; IGR was
N3.07bn, N3.07bn, N2.25bn and N3.24bn in
Presently, revenue collected from the Federation is 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.
65% of Yobe’s income, meaning fiscal stability may
be distant, particularly as the state is now ensconced It therefore pertinent that Yobe steps up its efforts to
in the league of debtors. boost the local economy and aggressively increase
its IGR; which has a current per capita rate of
Domestic debt stock leapt from N1.12bn in 2013 to N1,092 per person.
N26.47bn in 2017.
The state is hoping to collect approximately N4.5bn
Although External debt dropped to $28.54mn in in 2018 - a fair budget projection, which will be
2016 from $30.46mn in 2015, its growth has dependent on the leadership’s will to push the
resume,; hitting $29.56mn at year-end 2017. fortunes of Yobe state towards greater financial
balance.
As a whole, Yobe’s Total debt stock has steadily
climbed since 2013, rising from N6.4bn in 2013 to One way to begin is a drastic cut in Overhead costs,
N7.3bn in 2014, and a whopping N35.54bn in as well as a reform of Yobe’s tax collection and audit
2017. processes.

25
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2018 Edition State of States 86

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

Yobe N4.20bn N4.09bn N4.13bn N4.07bn N4.36bn N4.33bn

State
Pride of the Sahel

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N56.2bn 2013 N3.07bn 2013 N59.3bn
2014 N50.8bn 2014 N3.07bn 2014 N53.8bn
2015 N39.0bn 2015 N2.25bn 2015 N41.3bn
2016 N31.2bn 2016 N3.24bn 2016 N34.4bn
2017 N39.5bn 2017 N3.59bn 2017 N43.1bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 6.67%

NET FAAC 93.33%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.36bn N833.0m Nil N299.8m

>

N4.49bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.81bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N26.5bn $29.6m
Domestic External
N2.08bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N3.90bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates Total Debt Stock

Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue 2013 N6.39bn
> (Income) Recurrent
Expenditure
Ability to Meet N0.60bn 2014 N7.29bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015
Expenditure Excess N9.88bn
Commitments 2016 N13.7bn
2017 N35.5bn
N4.50bn* N3.90bn*
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 87

Yobe
State
Beef Pride of the Sahel

Yobe will have to develop a grazing reserve or ranching system that can hold millions of herd of
cattle, whilst exploiting its wind and solar potentials to irrigate the grazing fields. With careful
planning and further investment in security, Yobe could attain economic independence.

In this regard, the state must prioritise research on crop management approaches in its grazing
fields, and leverage on this resource to expand its livestock size and attain the status of net exporter
of meat and meat products within Africa, as discretionary tastes and consumer spending are
expected to push beef consumption per capita towards growth.

Just as important is that within Yobe’s borders lie 247 million tons of proven limestone deposits,
1.9million tons of kaolin and 141 million tons of gypsum (used for making gypsum drywall, an
alternative to concrete blocks), as well as 152.8million tons of Diatomite, which is essential for
manufacturing insulators, roofing sheets, plastic, paints, pesticides and cement mixtures.

Yobe could revive her earnings on the back of these solid mineral deposits being channeled into a
viable industrial and manufacturing economy, provided the war against insurgency is waged in such
a way it brings lasting peace to the state, and her neighbours.
North Central
2018 Edition State of States 89

NIGER KWARA KOGI

Cement

SHEA & GRAIN GRAINS & ANIMAL IRON ORE &

FEED CEMENT
Niger could focus on net
exportation of sorghum, as it has In terms of export, Kwara could Kogi can augment current
the capacity to expand become a big player in the revenue streams gained from its
production by 20 million tons in soybean/maize production and significant limestone deposits,
the medium term, and thereby supply market. Nigeria ranks which have pushed cement
generate income of about $4bn. 15th worldwide, with soybean production towards 15 million
production in the region of tons per annum.
The state may also choose to 588,201 tons.
aggressively formalise the Nigeria is expected to produce
existing trade in shea nut. The Global sales from maize exports approximately 48 million tons of
global market for shea butter is by country totaled $29.6bn in cement in 2018; a jump from
estimated to be in the region of 2017, with countries like Ukraine estimates of 10 million metric
$20bn, and projected to top exporting $3bn worth of grains tonnes produced 10 years ago.
$30bn by 2020. in that year.

Population

North Central
Export Potential

25,688,282
2016 Estimate (CBN)

NASARAWA BENUE PLATEAU

GRAINS & BAUXITE/ FRUIT CONCENTRATE FROZEN FRENCH

ALUMINUM FRIES
SOY OIL
Global exports of potatoes
For the export markets, Adamawa must seek to totaled $4.1bn during 2017 for
Nasarawa may seek a share of prioritise research on crop spuds in their raw form. In
the soybean/maize production management approaches in addition, the value of shipments
and export pie; global its sugarcane fields, which for prepared or preserved
production of soybean in 2016 could take crop yield beyond potatoes, including frozen
was approximately 335 million 100 tonnes per hectare, French fries, represents another
tons. Nasarawa, could potentially making the state a $9.3bn - Netherlands, Belgium,
therefore expand production net exporter of raw sugar. United States and Canada
by 5 million tons in the medium Raw cane sugar is becoming exported frozen french fries
term, and possibly see export more popular in Europe, as worth $2.2bn, $2bn, $1.4bn and
revenue worth about $1.5bn. consumers grow increasingly $1.1bn respectively in 2017.
interested in natural and Plateau could purposely work
unrefined food products. towards the exportation of
frozen French fries.
2018 Edition State of States 90

Benue Sustainability
Rank 26

Benue will need to adopt a frugal approach on her Overhead costs and align
spending with a pressing duty to shore up the trust of the “working poor,”
particularly in light of the state’s well-documented security challenges.

Benue, a largely agrarian economy, has a budget Considering that majority of Benue’s working
worth N190.03bn for 2018,26 which shows that population are engaged directly and/or indirectly
N81.9bn will go to Recurrent expenditure. With in the agricultural sector, the state may need to
Capital expenditure for the fiscal year projected at conceive and deploy effective and humane
N108bn, the overall deficit is N35.1bn. strategies to capture its huge working population
into the tax bracket.
In 2017, the state proposed Capital expenditure
of N97.56bn, while its annual Recurrent Regarding debt, Benue is entering uncharted
expenditure came to N66.3bn. Given that Actual territory; between 2013 and 2017, Debt grew at
revenue in 2017 was N52.2bn, Benue may have an annual average of 43.2%. As at December
struggled to meet her Recurrent expenditure 2017, the state’s Total debt was approximately
payments for the fiscal year. N85.83bn.

Juxtaposing these 2017 Actual revenue figures Benue’s Domestic debt, estimated at N24.99bn
with current Personnel costs for 2018 (which are in 2013, has since grown to N74.94bn in 2017,
projected at N51.02bn), forces the conclusion while External debt stood at N35.5bn as at year-
that Benue may be operating an unsustainable end 2017.
budget.
Benue will need to adopt a frugal approach on her
The state will need to reevaluate its plan to spend Overhead costs and align spending with a
N190.03bn in 2018 on the back of estimated pressing duty to shore up the trust of the “working
revenue worth N60bn, as this is not tenable. In poor,” particularly in light of the state’s well-
2017, Benue’s IGR of N12.399bn accounted for documented security challenges.
23.75% of the state’s total revenue.
In particular, the public’s trust will be critical, if
However, cumulatively, IGR has grown at an Benue hopes to succeed in its self-imposed goal
average of 11.51% per annum between 2013 of taking its IGR numbers above N20bn over the
and 2017. The state amassed IGR worth next two years.
N8.37bn, N8.28bn, N7.63bn and N9.56bn in
2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

When IGR numbers are compared with the state’s

projected population, Benue’s IGR per capita is at
N2,159 per person; significantly lower than the
statewide average of N3,939 per person.

26
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2018 Edition State of States 91

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.39bn N4.28bn N4.31bn N4.22bn N4.56bn N4.54bn

Benue State
Food Basket of the Nation Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N58.2bn 2013 N8.37bn 2013 N66.5bn
2014 N52.8bn 2014 N8.28bn 2014 N61.1bn
2015 N37.8bn 2015 N7.63bn 2015 N45.5bn
2016 N29.7bn 2016 N9.56bn 2016 N39.3bn
2017 N39.8bn 2017 N12.4bn 2017 N52.2bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 19.07%

NET FAAC 80.93%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.38bn N994.4m Nil N1.03bn

>

N5.42bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N4.25bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N74.9bn $35.5m
Domestic External
N2.58bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N6.83bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N29.9bn
>
Ability to Meet -N1.41bn 2014 N23.8bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N46.9bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N53.6bn
N5.42bn* N6.83bn* 2017 N85.8bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 92

FRUIT Benue State

CONCENTRATE Food Basket of the Nation
SOY OIL

Dredging the Benue River is one way to open up Benue can also place some 500,000 hectares
the state, as easy movement of goods to new of land under maize/soybean cultivation, to
markets can mean Benue builds a new make optimal use of its climate and topography,
manufacturing base around the river ports on whilst tapping into national and regional market
the back of cheaper logistic costs and abundant demands.
agricultural products.
A yield of at least ten tons per hectare of these
As Benue currently produces over 1,000,000 crops could effectively transform the state into a
metric tons of citrus fruits per annum, she is in major raw material hub for soybean oil, flour,
pole position for a stake in the Fruit Concentrate animal and dairy feed.
Market, which is expected to exceed $34.6bn
by 2019. A fruit concentrate plant within the Soybean oil is one of the most common used
Makurdi Industrial Estate with the requisite worldwide for cooking; nearly two-thirds the
infrastructure, as well as expanding farmers’ amount of soybean produced across the globe
capacity to grow more fruits, would serve is used for soybean oil production.
Benue well.
As the global market for soybean oil will be
The state will first have to invest in its orchards worth an estimated $21.37bn by 2022, Benue
and improve agronomy systems, with boosting may directly benefit from building its
crop yield and enhancing storage facilities being manufacturing economy around the soy oil
top priority. export market.

Spain, Mexico and Netherlands presently To stand a chance at becoming the largest
export lime and lemon concentrates; a segment exporter of soy oil in sub-Saharan Africa, Benue
of the expansive concentrate market worth will need to invest the financial, human and
US$832.3mn, $512.5mn and $337.4mn administrative resources necessary to take its
respectively. soybean crushing capacity beyond 3.5million
tons.
Even by modest standards, Benue can export
concentrate worth $3bn in the medium to long
term.
2018 Edition State of States 93

Kogi Sustainability
Rank 21
Notably, these dire financial straits where the state government’s IGR can barely
cover its Recurrent expenditure is happening despite the presence of the
Ajaokuta mills and Dangote Cement factory, as well as huge limestone and iron
ore deposits.

Kogi state aims a spend of N151.68bn in stock and her current outstanding obligations
2018, a sharp cut well below the N185.06bn such as payment of workers’ salaries could
budgeted in 2017. persist for years.

Recurrent expenditure is expected to grow Kogi State closed 2017 with a Domestic Debt
from N87.72bn in 2017 to N91.23bn in profile of N102.36bn. This is an
2018. unprecedented 1338% rise from N7.11bn in
2013.
Revenue for 2018 is expected to be
N91.23bn, but Actual revenue in 2017 was Domestic debt in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was
N50.89bn; a figure 41.9% lower than the N10.3bn, N42.03bn and N71.38bn
state’s revenue projections of N87.72bn for respectively. This sharp growth in Debt is
that same year. likely being exacerbated by the slow uptake of
IGR.
A review of Kogi’s budget performance in
2017 shows that Actual revenue (N50.89bn) Kogi’s IGR per capita was N2,514 per person
could not cover Recurrent expenditure in 2017; IGR contributed only 22.09% to the
obligations of N87.72bn, as estimated in the state’s revenue pool.
2017 budget.
Notably, these dire financial straits where the
In 2018, Recurrent expenditure is expected state government’s IGR can barely cover its
leap to N91.23b, even as Revenue is not Recurrent expenditure is happening despite
expected to increase above N60bn. This
implies that the fiscal imbalance in Kogi’s debt
2018 Edition State of States 94

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.21bn N4.07bn N4.12bn N4.04bn N4.39bn N4.35bn

Kogi
State
The Confluence State
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N58.8bn 2013 N5.02bn 2013 N63.8bn
2014 N54.8bn 2014 N6.57bn 2014 N61.4bn
2015 N40.4bn 2015 N6.78bn 2015 N47.2bn
2016 N31.8bn 2016 N9.57bn 2016 N41.4bn
2017 N39.6bn 2017 N11.2bn 2017 N50.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 18.25%

NET FAAC 81.75%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.28bn N917.9m Nil N937m

>

N5.13bn*(Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.35bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N102.4bn $33.0m
Domestic External
N2.89bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.24bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
Revenue Recurrent
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N12.5bn
>
Ability to Meet -N0.11bn 2014 N16.8bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N48.7bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N29.3bn
N5.13bn* N5.24bn* 2017 N112.5bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 95

Cement

Kogi
Iron Ore & State
The Confluence State
Cement

Kogi can augment current revenue streams This is critical because beyond rice, Kogi is
gained from its significant limestone deposits, renowned for the production of coffee, cocoa,
which have pushed cement production towards palm oil, cashews, groundnuts, maize, cassava,
15 million tons per annum. yam, rice and melon.

Nigeria is expected to produce approximately With a good logistics base, the state could
48 million tons of cement in 2018; a jump from become a net supplier of these products into
estimates of 10 million metric tonnes produced neighbouring cities, and beyond.
10 years ago.
Within, the National Iron Ore Mining Company
Cement use in Nigeria is however in the region (NIOMCO) is capable of providing employment
of 149kg/person, or 28 million metric tonnes opportunities to thousands, and simultaneously
per annum. This is markedly below the global improving Kogi’s IGR.
average of 500kg, meaning there is a maket for
Kogi to make profits in-country. The Itakpe Hills also holds significant promise,
based on its iron ore deposits, with production
Furthermore, as cement consumption is expected to top 10 million tons per annum, if
expected to grow by more than 5% in sub- Kogi can attract sustainable investments.
Saharan Africa between now and 2020, Kogi
stands to benefit from exports, as the state’s Finally, dedicated management of the Ajaokuta
limestone can amply support the production of Steel Mill, given the state’s mineral deposits,
over 30 million tons of cement per year. Kogi emerge and remain a thriving, profitable
steel belt in the region.
The proposed Lokoja River Port could be one
way to strategically transform Kogi into a hub
for the distribution of cement, agriculture and
agro-allied goods, as Kogi shares its borders
with almost a dozen other states.
2018 Edition State of States 96

Kwara Sustainability
Rank 20
To avoid the often-trod route of borrowing, drawing down on savings
and donor funds, Kwara must continue to build on its IGR level which is
encouraging, when measured against its population; Kwara presently
collects IGR per capita of N6,150, a figure almost double the national
average of N3,939.

27
Kwara state’s budget amounts to N190.9bn in 2018, up from 2017 estimates
of N135.26bn. The Capital component of the 2018 budget is expected to top
N110.09bn, while its Recurrent expenditure should grow from 2017 levels of
N64.28bn, to N79.91bn in 2018.

In the 2017 budget, Actual revenue was N52.74bn, significantly less than the
Expenditure component worth N64.28b.

To avoid the often-trod route of borrowing, drawing down on savings and donor
funds, Kwara must continue to build on its IGR level which is encouraging, when
measured against its population; Kwara presently collects IGR per capita of
N6,150, a figure almost double the national average of N3,939.

In terms of its contribution to the revenue pot, IGR accounts for 37.23% of
Kwara’s Total revenue in 2017. However, managing the cost of governance is
most critical, as the state’s expenditure plans look unrealistic, especially against
the backdrop of its debt profile.

Total debt for Kwara as at end-December 2017 was approximately N55.83bn.

Domestic debt stock has since risen to N40.26bn in 2017, from N22.42bn in
2013 .

For 2014, 2014 and 2016, Domestic debt was N22.15bn, N31.97bn and
N38.14bn respectively. External debt was recorded at $50.73bn by year-end
2017.

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2018 Edition State of States 97

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N3.58bn N3.48bn N3.56bn N3.42bn N3.70bn N3.65bn

Kwara
State
State of Harmony
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N50.0bn 2013 N13.8bn 2013 N63.9bn
2014 N44.4bn 2014 N12.5bn 2014 N56.9bn
2015 N34.1bn 2015 N7.18bn 2015 N41.2bn
2016 N25.8bn 2016 N17.3bn 2016 N43.1bn
2017 N33.1bn 2017 N19.6bn 2017 N52.7bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 31.46%

NET FAAC 68.54%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.72bn N843.8m Nil N1.64bn

>

N5.20bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N1.16bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N40.3bn $50.7m
Domestic External
N5.53bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N6.69bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Revenue Recurrent
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N29.7bn
>
Ability to Meet -N1.49bn 2014 N31.7bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall 2015 N42.0bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N61.4bn
N5.20bn* N6.69bn* 2017 N55.8bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 98

Kwara
Grains & State
State of Harmony
Animal feed

To its credit, Kwara State was able to persuade 588,201 tons. Global sales from maize exports
farmers from Zimbabwe to set up farms about a by country totaled $29.6bn in 2017, with
decade ago, which now provide poultry, milk, countries like Ukraine exporting $3bn worth of
processed cassava, soya bean, maize and rice grains in that year.
and ginger in industrial quantities.
Consequently, between 3,000 to 4,000 people Kwara - with better agronomy and improve
are employed during the harvesting season. seedlings - could expand production by 10
million tons in the medium term, and likely inch
But the state will have to do more, if it wants to towards export revenue worth $2.5bn.
use agriculture to achieve financial stability.
Kwara has the advantage of being connected to The state could simultaneously leverage its
most of its peers in the South-west and North- landmass to become a major producer of
west via rail, and with a rapidly expanding tomatoes, soybeans and maize; Kwara already
middle class population in these areas and seems to be cognizant of this, with a proposed
increasing demand for poultry products, tomato-processing factory.
soybeans and maize, Kwara could move in on
the feed manufacturing sector. Should this become a reality, Kwara may
dominate distribution of the crop, servicing
With stringent planning and investment drives, major cities in the South-west. Other crops that
over 500,000 hectares could come under grain Kwara can competitively bring to market include
cultivation, and raise profitability. Investments cotton, kolanut, tobacco and beniseed.
must include the provision of silos and elevators
along the rail corridor, all of which could help In the area of mining, Kwara will need to ensure
transform Kwara into a major agro-based its $300mn cement factory comes onstream in
trading bloc. a timely manner. We advise joint ventures with
willing investors to drive exploration of her
In terms of export, Kwara could become a big abundant mineral resources, which include
player in the soybean/maize production and limestone, marble, feldspar, clay, kaolin, quartz
supply market. Nigeria ranks 15th worldwide, and granite rocks.
with soybean production in the region of
2018 Edition State of States 99

Nasarawa Sustainability
Rank 27
To remain financially buoyant, Nasarawa may need to make significant cuts to her
Recurrent expenditure budget, especially all Overheads, as well as aggressively
increase IGR, with a focus on how to draw the middle class and business owners
who commute to and from neighbouring Abuja into its Pay As You Earn (PAYE)
tax net, and justify this with top-notch service delivery, including road, rail and
health infrastructure.

Nasarawa, an agricultural-based economy, is Nasarawa is likely to struggle to meet her monthly

looking to spend N125.4bn in 2018. Recurrent expenditure obligations in 2018, as its
debt is rising.
The state, which had a relatively modest IGR of
N6.17bn in 2017 is hoping to spend N45.9bn on In 2017, Total debt was approximately N90.65bn:
Recurrent expenditure, and N72.8bn on Capital Domestic debt at N71.36bn, up from N59.05bn
items in 2018. in 2016, while External debt was $62.88mn in
2017 - a leap compared to 2016 levels of
Nasarawa’s IGR contributed only 16.18% of the $49.9mn.
state’s Actual revenue (N38.16bn) in 2017.
Given that Recurrent expenditure for that year was To remain financially buoyant, Nasarawa may
approximately N38.6bn, the state seems to be need to make significant cuts to her Recurrent
barely breaking even financially. expenditure budget, especially all Overheads, as
well as aggressively increase IGR, with a focus on
However,with the larger sums projected in the how to draw the middle class and business owners
2018 budget Nasarawa may embark on a path of who commute to and from neighbouring Abuja
fiscal hardship except it adjusts its expenditure into its Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax net, and
pattern accordingly, and grows IGR justify this with top-notch service delivery,
simultaneously. including road, rail and health infrastructure.

The state’s IGR per capita comes to N2,447 per

person.

As at year-end 2016, IGR was approximately

N3.4bn, significantly down from 2014 and 2015
figures of N4.1bn and N4.3bn respectively.
2018 Edition State of States 100

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N3.79bn N3.67bn N3.72bn N3.65bn N3.93bn N3.87bn

Nasarawa State Jan Feb Mar April May June

Home of Solid Minerals

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N46.7bn 2013 N4.01bn 2013 N50.7bn
2014 N44.9bn 2014 N4.09bn 2014 N48.9bn
2015 N34.9bn 2015 N4.28bn 2015 N39.2bn
2016 N27.8bn 2016 N3.40bn 2016 N31.2bn
2017 N31.9bn 2017 N6.17bn 2017 N38.2bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 12.0%

NET FAAC 88.0%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.98bn N787.7m Nil N514.5m

>

N4.29bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.01bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N71.4bn $62.9m
Domestic External
N2.43bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N4.44bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

Total Debt Stock

Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) 2018 Monthly Estimates 2013 N36.5bn
> Revenue Recurrent
Ability to Meet (Income) Expenditure 2014 N43.6bn
Monthly Recurrent -N0.15bn
2015
Expenditure N51.0bn
Shortfall
Commitments 2016 N80.0bn
N4.29bn* N4.44bn* 2017 N90.6bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 101

Grains & Nasarawa State

Home of Solid Minerals
Bauxite/
Aluminum

In terms of grain cultivation, Nasarawa could Africa, at 2.4%, Asia at 1.9% and Oceania at
make use of the Benue River to boost its 0.1% are much smaller exporters of corn.
agricultural earnings and diversify its current Nasarawa could change these dynamics by
crop portfolio. Nasarawa’s strong agrarian expanding production by 10 million tons and
economy could be further pushed towards bag export revenue projected at $2.5bn over
profitability, if the government pursues the next few years.
collaborations with organised private
stakeholders, to restart some of its comatose Strategic mining is also crucial, as Nasarawa
agro-allied factories. sits atop huge deposits of bauxite; a solid
mineral commodity used to produce aluminum.
For the export markets, Nasarawa may seek a
share of the soybean/maize production and The state may choose to enter into joint-venture
export pie; global production of soybean in agreements to explore and mine this
2016 was approximately 335 million tons. commodity, and become a major producer and
exporter of aluminum roofing sheets, as well as
Nasarawa, could therefore expand production other associated commodities.
by 5 million tons in the medium term, and
possibly see export revenue worth about Whatever means or commodities it chooses to
$1.5bn. broaden its revenue base, Nasarawa will have
to find a way to connect with the Lagos-Kano
As for maize, global exports in 2017 totalled railways, or leverage on the Niger river
$29.6bn, with North American countries waterways to ensure access to market.
behind 35% of this sum - or $10.4bn. In
second place was Europe, cornering 30.6% of
the market, while 30% of worldwide shipments
originated from shippers in Latin America
(excluding Mexico) and the Caribbean.
2018 Edition State of States 102

Niger Sustainability
Rank 17
The state is advised to boost its earning power by focusing on its prime assets;
hydroelectric power and agriculture, for greater profitability, and by extension,
increased financial progress.

Niger state has announced a budget worth The state’s IGR which constitutes only 13.3% of
N134.29bn;28 a rise of about 15% from the all revenue in 2017 needs to grow tangibly, if
N116bn cited in the 2017 budget. Niger hopes to achieve its documented fiscal
plans covering 2018-2021.
Capital expenditure for 2018 is pegged at
N81.04bn, (compared to N67bn in 2017), while This is because IGR over the last five years grew at
Recurrent expenditure is expected to be in the an annual average of 13.2%, from N4.12bn to
region of N53.24bn.29 N6.52bn; IGR in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was
N5.74bn, N5.98bn and N5.88bn respectively.
Actual revenue in 2017 was N48.99bn. This is a At N1,173 per person, Niger’s IGR per capita can
shade higher than the N48bn Niger delineated for be considered abysmal.
Recurrent expenditure that same year.
The state is advised to boost its earning power by
The implication is that despite being home to two focusing on its prime assets; hydroelectric power
of Nigeria’s major hydroelectric power stations and agriculture, for greater profitability, and by
(the Kainji and Shiroro dams), Niger unfortunately extension, increased financial progress.
seems to have little financial power to keep its
economy stable.

Total debt as at the end of fiscal year 2017 was

N57.46bn, and Domestic debt grew to N40.03bn
in 2017, from N24.7bn in 2013. Niger’s External
debt as at 2017 was $56.82mn, from 2016 levels
of $45.35mn.

28
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2018 Edition State of States 103

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N4.58bn N4.40bn N4.46bn N4.38bn N4.73bn N4.69bn

Niger
State
The Power State Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N61.6bn 2013 N4.12bn 2013 N65.7bn
2014 N53.1bn 2014 N5.74bn 2014 N58.8bn
2015 N40.1bn 2015 N5.98bn 2015 N46.1bn
2016 N32.1bn 2016 N5.88bn 2016 N38.0bn
2017 N42.5bn 2017 N6.52bn 2017 N48.9bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 10.69%

NET FAAC 89.31%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N3.55bn N980.9m Nil N543.2m

>

N5.08bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.38bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N40.0bn $56.8m
Domestic External
N2.06bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N4.43bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue
(Income) Recurrent 2013 N29.8bn
> Expenditure
Ability to Meet N0.65bn 2014 N31.6bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess 2015 N30.3bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N61.4bn
N5.08bn* N4.43bn* 2017 N57.5bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 104

Niger
Shea & State
The Power State

Grain

Niger must begin to look inwards to make, and Niger state stands to benefit from this sector,
maintain financial progress. The state could but must consider significant investment
exploit its land and water resources to amounting to at least $150mn, to put more
repurpose itself as a leading grain producer in hectares under shea tree cultivation.
Africa, harnessing these to increase agricultural
production focused on the food, biofuel and Niger’s location places it in Nigeria’s mineral
feed industries. resources belt. Rich commercial deposits of
talc, gold, silica, marble, iron, feldspar, lead and
Niger could also tap into its hydroelectric and limestone could be used for domestic and
wind power credentials, to accelerate export purposes. In particular, being a uranium
industrialisation within and outside of its exporter since the 1960s, the state may also
borders. Work on a renewable energy mini-grid choose to improve investment in this sector and
project to provide electricity across the state is do so within global guidelines.
encouraged, and advised to remain a priority.
To maximise profit for all these commodities,
Niger could focus on net exportation of the Baro River Port – if completed – could
sorghum, as it has the capacity to expand become a major logistics hub for goods coming
production by 20 million tons in the medium from Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara.
term, and thereby generate income of about
$4bn. As Niger is also on the Lagos-Kano rail corridor,
the Baro Port could also service Kaduna, Kano
The state may also choose to aggressively and Katsina, bringing in more avenues for
formalise the existing trade in shea nut. The earning income on behalf of the people.
global market for shea butter is estimated to be
in the region of $20bn, and projected to top
$30bn by 2020.

With yield estimated at 500kg of shea butter

from one tons of shea nut, Nigeria could expand
production by 1 million tons in the medium term,
to possibly see export revenues worth about
$1.5bn.
2018 Edition State of States 105

Plateau Sustainability
Rank 31

With IGR per capita at N2,568 per person, Plateau may need to cut down on its
Recurrent expenditure budget (especially its Overheads), as well as aggressively
increase IGR, which contributed 26.7% to its Total revenue pool in 2017.

Plateau state plans to spend N146bn in the 2018 Total debt stood at N131.57bn at the end of 2017
financial year,30 from N139.49bn in 2017. and appears set to grow; Domestic debt jumped
from 2013 levels of N52.42bn to N122.35bn in
The 2018 figures are similar to those from 2016, 2017.
when the budget was N146.7bn.
However, External debt was $30.07mn, slightly
A review of available fiscal records suggest the up from $29.14mn in 2016.
state’s non-familiarity with its own spending Plateau’s self-announced goal to grow its IGR
patterns; despite hinging its 2017 budget on significantly seems to have failed - in 2017,
Revenue projections of N75.7bn, Actual revenue budget projections called for IGR uptake of
was only N40.41bn that year. N23bn, yet Actual IGR was N10.79bn.

Also, though Plateau had a budget size This was however a rise from 2016 and 2015
N139.49bn in 2017, the Actual spend was levels of N9.19bn and N6.94bn respectively.
N65.58bn; for instance, N70.13bn was
proposed for capital items, but the amount spent With IGR per capita at N2,568 per person,
was recorded as N11.53bn. Furthermore, a total Plateau may need to cut down on its Recurrent
of N54.05bn was spent on Recurrent expenditure expenditure budget (especially its Overheads), as
in 2017, as against the budget projections of well as aggressively increase IGR, which
31
N75.9bn. contributed 26.7% to its Total revenue pool in
2017.
These widely varying figures mean Plateau could
enter another round of astronomical debt growth
without careful consideration of revenue, which
has been insufficient to cover Recurrent
expenditure obligations.

30
http://www.tribuneonlineng.com/lalong-signs-n146bn-budget-for-2018-into-law/
31
https://www.plateaustate.gov.ng/themes/plsg/downloads/PLATEAU%20STATE%202018%20APPROVED%20BUDGET%20VERSION%201.pdf
2018 Edition State of States 106

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N3.45bn N3.32bn N3.38bn N3.30bn N3.58bn N3.56bn

Plateau State Jan Feb Mar April May June

Home of Peace and Tourism

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N56.9bn 2013 N8.49bn 2013 N65.3bn
2014 N52.5bn 2014 N8.28bn 2014 N60.7bn
2015 N33.8bn 2015 N6.94bn 2015 N40.7bn
2016 N20.7bn 2016 N9.19bn 2016 N29.9bn
2017 N29.6bn 2017 N10.8bn 2017 N40.4bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 20.75%

NET FAAC 79.25%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.52bn N914.9m Nil N899.0m

>

N4.33bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.22bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N122.3bn $30.1m
Domestic External
N4.11bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N6.33bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Revenue Recurrent
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) 2013 N56.0bn
> Expenditure

Ability to Meet 2014 N84.0bn

-N1.99bn
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N102.2bn
Expenditure Shortfall
Commitments 2016 N140.0bn
2017 N131.6bn
N4.33bn* N6.33bn*
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 107

Exotic Crops Plateau State

Home of Peace and Tourism

Plateau lies atop a very unique climate and Global exports of potatoes totaled $4.1bn
favourable soil that are both suitable for growing during 2017 for spuds in their raw form. In
some exotic crops, vegetables and fruits, addition, the value of shipments for prepared or
including Irish potatoes, strawberry, beetroot, preserved potatoes, including frozen French
celery, broccoli and blackcurrants. fries, represents another $9.3bn - Netherlands,
Belgium, United States and Canada exported
These fruits and vegetables are hardly grown in frozen french fries worth $2.2bn, $2bn, $1.4bn
any other part of the country, placing the state and $1.1bn respectively in 2017.
in pole position to become a hub for food
exports in Africa. Plateau could purposely work towards the
exportation of frozen French fries. Sales into
To achieve this, Plateau would need to place the African market under the ACFTA could top
more land under cultivation, and augment this $500mn in the medium term.
with a sterling transportation plan, while greater
investment in Irish potato processing plants will Plateau’s unique weather is not just suited to
be needed, to cut down on wastage. agriculture; places like the Jos wildlife Safari
Park, Zoological Gardens and Asop Falls will
One development worth watching which may likely appeal to a wider range of tourists across
yet boost Plateau’s industrialisation credentials the globe, throughout the year.
and its revenue base is the ongoing 700-
hectare potato project, which lies across Kwaal For this to happen however, the security
and Gyel communities. situation in the state will have to improve
markedly.
Projected to ensure the capital Jos makes
Nigeria emerge as West Africa’s largest potato
producer in the nearest future, the scheme is
expected to result in the production of 100
tonnes of the staple per day.
South South
2018 Edition State of States 109

EDO CROSS RIVER DELTA

GRAINS & ANIMAL ENGINEERED

SHEA & GRAIN FEED WOOD
Cross River could also elect to
place 500,000 hectares or more
If Edo puts 400,000 hectares of farmland under palm The market for engineered wood
under rubber cultivation and plantation, for the sole purpose is growing rapidly at about 24.8%
invests in research to take of exporting palm oil and yearly, and is expected to be
yield above four tons per creating jobs along the value valued at $42bn by 2022.Nigeria
hectares, its rubber-based chain. Exports of palm oil totaled presently imports almost all
economy could top $3bn in US$33.3bn in 2017, and Nigeria engineered wood, with
the near term, on the back of is the 4th largest producer of commercial vehicles and train
efficient distribution through palm oil (behind Indonesia with manufacturers currently pushing
the seaport. 53.3% of global output, Malaysia demand up - due to the
(28.8%) and Thailand (4%)), application of these products in
accounting for 2.6% of total automotive flooring.
global output at a production
quantity of 7.8mn tons.

Population

South South
Export Potential

28,829,288
2016 Estimate (CBN)

BAYELSA RIVERS AKWA-IBOM

BIOPLASTICS BIOFUEL (ALGAE) FISH

Bayelsa may also develop its Nigeria’s fishing sub-sector is

human resources for With a rich network of coastlines worth an estimated N530bn, and
deployment in mariculture, a that run into the Atlantic Ocean, a significant market share is
specialized branch of an added aquaculture market is Akwa Ibom’s for the taking, if
aquaculture involving the available for the taking.The attention is paid to various
cultivation of marine organisms government will however have to aspects of the value chain,
for food and other products in formally support artisanal including seismic data
the open ocean. As the global fishermen in the riverine areas, to acquisition, geotechnical
canned seafood market size tangibly transform Rivers’ engineering and aqua-
was estimated at $21.50bn in agriculture economy from processing services. For
2016, the state may choose to subsistence to industrial levels. instance, about 70-80% of the
build her manufacturing base seafood consumed in the UK
around seafood comes from outside its borders.
2018 Edition State of States 110

Akwa Ibom Sustainability

Rank 5

To boost earnings, the state could take advantage of its relative peaceful status to attract
international firms within the extractives sector aiming to set up shop in the Niger Delta.

Akwa Ibom is Nigeria’s largest oil producing state, Recurrent expenditure, the state could lean more
churning approximately 504,000 barrels per day. towards debt accumulation. Over the past four
32
Budget-wise, she plans to spend N646.6bn in years, Domestic debt grew by 35.44% per
2018, a jump from 2017 approved estimates of annum, while IGR growth averaged a modest
N485.792bn33. 6.75% per year.

The state’s Total revenue for 2017 was In actual terms, Domestic debt rose from
N159.57bn, yet its budget for 2018 on capital N81.756bn in 2014, to N155.4bn as at the end
items alone is N437.674bn. of 2016, and was an estimated N187.3bn as
2017.
Though Akwa Ibom’s revenue is not expected to
go beyond N180bn, annual Recurrent Should Akwa Ibom seek to take up more debt, the
expenditure is expected to reach N214bn in 2018 numbers may increase significantly in the coming
(from 2017 levels of N169.3bn). Therefore, the months; its Recurrent expenditure which is in the
earlier-mentioned N646.6bn budget for the state region of N213.826bn must therefore undergo
in 2018 appears overly optimistic, and may push sharp cuts, particularly as trends suggest that
Akwa Ibom’s debt profile beyond manageable revenue will not significantly surpass N180bn.
thresholds.
Akwa Ibom will also need to improve its IGR
A breakdown of Akwa Ibom’s revenue shows that uptake, which amounts to N2,911 per capita in
its IGR of N15.96bn, constituted a meagre 10% 2017.
of its income in 2017. Currently, nearly all the
state’s earnings are comprised of Statutory This is a comparably low figure, compared to
revenue, Value Added tax and the 13% derivation states like Lagos, Rivers and Ogun, which bagged
fund. N26,610, N12,252 and N14,343 respectively as
IGR per person, in 2017.
As at year-end 2016, IGR stood at N23.269bn,
rising from N14.791bn in 2015; but as shown by To boost earnings, the state could take advantage
the N15.9bn IGR for 2017, the recent gains made of its relative peaceful status to attract
are being erased. international firms within the extractives sector
aiming to set up shop in the Niger Delta.
For previous years, IGR in 2013 and 2014 was
N15.398bn and N15.676bn respectively.

The 2017 numbers also reveal that with Revenue

significantly lower than Akwa Ibom’s estimated

32
http://dailypost.ng/2018/02/22/akwa-ibom-governor-emmanuel-signs-n646-6bn-2018-budget/
33
http://www.unofficial-udomemmanuel.org/budget/full-address-akwa-ibom-state-2018-budget-proposals/
2018 Edition State of States 111

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N16.6bn N16.3bn N17.9bn N17.2bn N16.9bn
N15.2bn

Akwa-Ibom
State
Land of Promise

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N294.7bn 2013 N15.4bn 2013 N310.1bn
2014 N258.3bn 2014 N15.7bn 2014 N273.9bn
2015 N163.9bn 2015 N14.8bn 2015 N178.8bn
2016 N104.4bn 2016 N23.3bn 2016 N127.7bn
2017 N143.6bn 2017 N15.9bn 2017 N159.6bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 7.37%

NET FAAC 92.63%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.95bn N999.8m N12.7bn N1.33bn

>

N18.03bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N4.43bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N187.3bn $50.5m
Domestic External
N13.53bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N17.96bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Revenue Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Recurrent 2013 N134.9bn
> N0.07bn
Expenditure

Ability to Meet 2014 N92.4bn

Monthly Recurrent Excess
Expenditure 2015 N157.9bn
Commitments
2016 N227.3bn
N18.03bn* N17.96bn* 2017 N202.8bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 112

Akwa-Ibom
State
Fish Land of Promise

Akwa Ibom can utilise the advantage of its Activating the proposed Ibom Deep Sea Port,
access to the Atlantic ocean to boost its earning alongside the Ibom Industrial Free Trade Zone
power, via a thriving aquaculture industry. will elevate the level of infrastructure necessary
for importation and export of other products.
Nigeria’s fishing sub-sector is worth an
estimated N530bn, and a significant market For instance, these facilities could also benefit
share is Akwa Ibom’s for the taking, if attention Akwa Ibom’s fledgling petrochemicals sector,
is paid to various aspects of the value chain, which constitutes industrial feedstock for the
including seismic data acquisition, geotechnical production of aspirin, carpeting, crayons,
engineering and aqua-processing services. detergents, dyes, fertilizers, herbicides and
pesticides.
For instance, about 70-80% of the seafood
consumed in the UK comes from outside its Elsewhere, Akwa Ibom is sitting atop 708,100
borders. Akwa Ibom can meet demand by arable hectares, and already planning to expand
becoming a major export base for seafood cocoa cultivation to approximately 32,000
including fish and shrimps. hectares within four years. We argue that the
state may need to expand land under cultivation
The export market for frozen fish was in the beyond 100,000 hectares; given that yield is
region of $23.7bn in 2017. European and Asia not expected to top one ton per hectare.
countries accounted for the highest dollar value
worth of frozen fish exports, with shipments Cocoa cropping should be complemented by
accounting for 33.7% and 32.5% respectively. investments in the energy and infrastructure
Latin America and the Caribbean account for a needs that shore up the state’s chocolate
10% share, while the African market follows, at manufacturing potentials.
5.9%.
Diversifying into palm and rubber
Akwa Ibom can emulate the Faroe Islands, cultivation/exports will also translate to greater
which had fish exports worth $363.9mn in financial security, as land under palm oil
2017. cultivation above 100,000 hectares could
deliver over 50,000 jobs and 430,000 tons of
Akwa Ibom’s crisp waters could back fish crude palm oil (CPO) to the local and national
exports in the region of $1bn in the near term, economy.
with cascading effects on the state’s revenue
uptake.
2018 Edition State of States 113

Bayelsa Sustainability
Rank 3
The State will emphatically need to reduce Recurrent expenditure - to
ensure it can pay salaries, cover Overhead costs and service outstanding
debts without resorting to excessive borrowing.

Bayelsa State, which hosts Nigeria’s largest Internally-generated revenue grew at an average
crude oil and natural gas deposits, is planning a of 8.25% between 2013 and 2017. In actual
34
spend of N318bn for the 2018 financial year. terms, IGR grew by approximately N2bn between
2013 (N10.5bn) and 2017 (N12.52bn)
Actual Revenue for 2017 was N117.78bn, while respectively.
Bayelsa’s annual Recurrent Expenditure was an
estimated N155.1bn. This shows a wide gulf Noteworthy is that IGR figures in Bayelsa appear
between the state’s Revenue and its Recurrent to be witnessing this slight rise from a downward
expenditure - excluding the additional costs of trend where IGR was N10.96bn, N8.71bn and
Capital Expenditure, which were pegged at N7.91 bn in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.
N88.1bn in 2017.
Bayelsa will need to ramp up work on its budget to
With Revenue lower than Recurrent expenditure, achieve realistic returns; the state is planning to
Bayelsa has taken the route of borrowing and/or spend N318bn in 2018, despite the likelihood
drawing down on savings. Efforts by the state to that revenue may be less than half of this figure -
expunge ghost workers from the payroll system N120bn.
are welcome but further structural reform is called
for, to tangibly reduce Recurrent expenditure. The State will emphatically need to reduce
Recurrent expenditure - to ensure it can pay
This is because Bayelsa’s Domestic debt grew salaries, cover Overhead costs and service
from approximately N69.51bn in 2013 to outstanding debts without resorting to excessive
N129.5bn in 2017; at an annual average of borrowing. An overhaul of IGR measures may also
18.15%. Domestic debt was N91.68bn, boost Bayelsa’s chances at fiscal stability - the
N103.37bn and N140.18bn in 2014, 2015 and state collected IGR per capita of N5498 per head
2016 respectively. in 2017.

External debt was $47.8mn, effectively pegging This is between 50%-500% less than Lagos,
the state’s Total debt at N144.12bn as year-end Ogun and Rivers who generate annual IGR per
2017. capita of N26,610, N14,343 and N12,252 per
head respectively.
Analysis of the 2017 fiscal year shows that
Bayelsa received N105.3bn from the FAAC and
collected N12.5bn as IGR within the period under
review. Bayelsa is thus dependent on federation
revenue, as it accounted for 89.4% of total
revenue in 2017.

34
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/04/968551/
2018 Edition State of States 114

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N12.6bn N12.6bn N13.7bn N13.2bn N12.4bn N12.7bn

Bayelsa
State
Glory of all Lands

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N187.9bn 2013 N10.5bn 2013 N198.5bn
2014 N150.9bn 2014 N10.9bn 2014 N161.9bn
2015 N88.3bn 2015 N8.71bn 2015 N97.0bn
2016 N58.1bn 2016 N7.91bn 2016 N65.9bn
2017 N105.3bn 2017 N12.5bn 2017 N117.8bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 7.51%

NET FAAC 92.49%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N1.89bn N797.1m N10.2bn N1.04bn

>

N13.89bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N4.00bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N129.5bn $47.8m
Domestic External
N9.33bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N13.33bn*
(Jan-June 2018)
2018 Monthly Estimates
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
Revenue Total Debt Stock
(Income) Recurrent
Expenditure 2013 N74.1bn
> N0.57bn

Ability to Meet 2014 N97.9bn

Excess
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N110.8bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N172.1bn
N13.90bn* N13.33bn* 2017 N144.1bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 115

Bayelsa
Bioplastics State
Glory of all Lands

We advise that Bayelsa makes a departure from With the global market for bioplastics expected
relying overwhelmingly on its share of oil to reach $30.8bn by 2020, Bayelsa could
derivation for its revenue. Surrounded by rivers readily begin the journey to transforming its
and creeks, as well as numerous solid minerals economy away from oil. The state also holds
and agricultural products, diversifying into significant aquaculture potentials, as algae are
aquaculture - with a focus on large-scale algae an important food source for some species of
and fish farming - should be a priority. The key fish.
would be to build an economy that replaces
plastic with bioplastic. Bayelsa may also develop its human resources
for deployment in mariculture, a specialized
A likely market awaits in the Asia Pacific region, branch of aquaculture involving the cultivation
which is projected to become the world’s of marine organisms for food and other
largest consumer of bioplastics by 2020, products in the open ocean. As the global
followed by North America and Europe. canned seafood market size was estimated at
$21.50bn in 2016, the state may choose to
Eco-friendly initiatives by corporates and the build her manufacturing base around seafood
availability of raw materials for manufacturing and ready-to-eat seafood products.
bioplastics are prominent factors driving growth
in Asia Pacific bioplastics market; India alone However, a compulsory element to this would
exported plastic (including bioplastics) worth be improving Bayela’s distribution
$8bn in 2017. infrastructure.

Bayelsa could potentially export bioplastic The plastics industry is evolving at a fast rate;
worth $15bn in the medium to long-term, if analysts foresee bioplastics will exhibit
aggressive production and marketing strategies tremendous growth over the next decade and
are put in place. investors will likely set their sights on proactive
bioplastics manufacturers.
In particular, commercial and industrial algae
cultivation form the basis for raw materials used Bayelsa could exploit these dynamics, to great
in the production of omega-3 fatty acids, financial advantage.
natural food colorants, fertilizers, bio-plastics
and pharmaceuticals. Bayelsa could build algae
ponds across its coastlines and leverage on its
closeness to international waters to operate a
bio-plastic powerhouse.
2018 Edition State of States 116

Cross River Sustainability

Rank 36
It is financially short-sighted for the state to spend N1.3tn in 2018, while
possibly still struggling to meet Recurrent expenditure commitments from
2017, which fell under a more modest N301bn budget proposal.

Cross River has one of the budgets for 2018 that Total debt as at year-end 2017 was approximately
cross into the staggering trillion-Naira mark. The N177.16bn, with External debt growing to
state proposes a spend of N1.3tn in 2018, up $167.9mn in 2017, from $114.9mn in 2016.
from budget projections of N301bn in 2017.
Domestic debt also rose to N125.65bn in 2017,
Termed the “Budget of Kinetic Crystallisations,” from N116.06bn in 2013; on average, Domestic
the state’s 2018 fiscal plan is built around key debt grew by 2.27% annually, between 2013 and
infrastructure projects, hoping to spend 70% of its 2017.
budget on the Bakassi Deep Seaport; Cross River
Garment Factory and a “super-highway.” Cross Internally-generated revenue (IGR) for Cross River
River has announced it aims to pool private in 2017 was recorded at N18.10bn, a leap from
investment in the identified infrastructure projects, 2016 levels of N14.78bn; IGR was N12bn,
but specifics on how this will be achieved remain N15.74bn and N13.57bn in 2013, 2014 and
unclear. 2015 respectively.

In 2017, Total revenue for the state (N45.56bn) As IGR accounted for 43.57% of Cross River’s
was six times less than its current 2018 budget, revenue in 2017, while IGR per capita is N4,683
which informs the view that Cross River state may per head, the state will need to align its budget to
have to realign its budget projections. It is suit the reality of its revenue-generating capacity.
financially short-sighted for the state to spend
N1.3tn in 2018, while possibly still struggling to For instance, the 2017 budget called for
meet Recurrent expenditure commitments from Recurrent Expenditure spending of N74.52bn,
2017, which fell under a more modest N301bn while Actual revenue for that year was only
budget proposal. N41.56bn.

To shift focus, the infrastructural expansion plans This means a gap of N32.96bn potentially exists
that Cross River is hoping to push in the 2018 in the recurrent part of the budget alone, a gap
financial year may also raise her debt profile that the government must grapple with while
significantly. currently navigating the 2018 budget outlay of
N1.3tn.
2018 Edition State of States 117

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N2.87bn N2.75bn N2.79bn N2.73bn N3.02bn N2.97bn

Cross
River
The People's Paradise Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N53.5bn 2013 N12.0bn 2013 N65.5bn
2014 N49.8bn 2014 N15.7bn 2014 N65.5bn
2015 N30.0bn 2015 N13.6bn 2015 N43.6bn
2016 N17.4bn 2016 N14.8bn 2016 N32.1bn
2017 N23.5bn 2017 N18.1bn 2017 N41.6bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 34.58%

NET FAAC 65.42%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N1.98bn N878.9m Nil N1.51bn

>

N4.36bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N4.82bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
N
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) >
N125.6bn $167.9m
Domestic External
N27.68bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N32.50bn*
(Jan-June 2018)
2018 Monthly Estimates
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue Recurent Total Debt Stock
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N135.5bn
>
-N28.14bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N131.1bn
Monthly Recurrent Shortfall
2015 N142.4bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N266.7bn

N4.36bn* N32.50bn* 2017 N177.2bn

Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 118

Cross
Palm Oil & River
The People's Paradise

Engineered
Wood

Cross River must exploit the fact that she palm oil (behind Indonesia with 53.3% of global
accounts for approximately 58% of forests in output, Malaysia (28.8%) and Thailand (4%)),
Nigeria; a vast 6,000 square kilometers. accounting for 2.6% of total global output at a
production quantity of 7.8mn tons.
The state will have to find ways to sustainably
manage these resources; its plans to build a Should Cross River improve on its palm oil
superhighway through most of the forest, production, she could make about N2bn every
primarily to move goods from the Calabar port year in export gains, inevitably boosting
onwards, is understandably seen by critics as internally-generated revenue (IGR).
encouraging the deforestation of Nigeria on a
large scale. Cocoa cultivation is another commodity Cross
River may delve into, provided all associated
Alternatively, Cross River may seek to draw logistic infrastructure is extensively improved.
revenue via the carbon trading initiative, as well The Calabar port will need to be dredged, and
as through the exportation of aggressive marketing will be the added
engineered/composite wood by producing complement to position the state as a hub of
plywood, particleboards, fibreboards. commerce for the South-south, South-east
and North-east zones.
The latter will be achieved if the state harnesses
its expansive timber industry, and given that Whatever routes Cross River chooses, if the
abundant limestone deposits exist, Cross River present administration aims to actualize its
could also aim to be a major exporter of building current ambitions towards industrial revolution,
materials, all of which could directly assist they must match investor funds with consistent
Nigeria in closing her 20-million housing deficit. delivery.

Cross River could also elect to place 500,000 The deplorable state of the multi-million Naira
hectares or more of farmland under palm Obudu Cattle Ranch and still remote access
plantation, for the sole purpose of exporting roads to this facility does not align with a state
palm oil and creating jobs along the value chain. that professes to be interested in boosting its
IGR figures.
Exports of palm oil totaled US$33.3bn in
2017, and Nigeria is the 4th largest producer of
2018 Edition State of States 119

Delta Sustainability
Rank 2
The state should aim to expand its revenue base beyond the formal
economy as well as reduce its Recurrent expenditure outlay and control
debt accumulation.

Awash with huge deposits of crude oil, Delta State Internally generated revenue( IGR) appears
is planning to spend N308.89bn in 2018; a total modest; N51.89bn was realised as IGR in 2017,
sum of N161.61bn is earmarked for Capital accounting for 31.8% of the state’s Total
expenditure in 2018 - a steep rise from the revenue. In 2016, 2015 and 2014, IGR
N136.44bn budgeted for 2017. fluctuated, at N44.8bn, N40.81bn and
N42.82bn respectively.
Personnel costs are admirably down by 11.10%
to N71.56bn in the 2018 budget, compared to Nevertheless, at N9,186 per head, its IGR per
the N80.49bn projected in 2017. capita is almost triple the national average of
N3,939.
However, Overhead costs remain relatively
elevated; the price of keeping government Delta state will benefit from tightening its IGR
running is projected to be about N70.71 bn for strategies, as this component of its revenue base
2018, only slightly down from 2017 levels of grew at a sluggish average of 1.58% between
N72.61bn.35 2013 and 2017. The state should aim to expand
its revenue base beyond the formal economy as
In total, the state has scheduled 47.68% of its well as reduce its Recurrent expenditure outlay
2018 budget (or N147.27bn) for Recurrent and control debt accumulation.
items, against expected revenue of N260.18bn.
Domestic debt for Delta state grew at an average
With Actual revenue for Delta state being rate of 32.19% between 2013 and 2017.
N163.09bn in 2017, compared with its Recurrent However, Domestic debt has seen an admirable
expenditure estimate of N158.01bn for the same decline, down from 2015 levels of N320.61bn to
year, there appears to be some semblance of N228.32bn in 2017.
fiscal balance.
External debt as at the conclusion of 2017 was
Revenue estimates for 2018 at N229.62bn will $58.39mn, putting Delta State’s total debt at
however be a stretch, as the variance between the N246.34bn.
budget’s projections and recorded Actual revenue
is too wide.

The state may have to adjust its budget

projections towards a more conservative figure
and augment this with massive investment in
capital projects that woo investors, particularly as
volatility remains a factor in the global oil market.

35
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2018 Edition State of States 120

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N16.2bn N17.2bn N17.4bn N17.0bn N17.3bn
N15.9bn

Delta
State
The Finger of God

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N217.9bn 2013 N50.2bn 2013 N268.1bn
2014 N188.9bn 2014 N42.8bn 2014 N231.6bn
2015 N120.1bn 2015 N40.8bn 2015 N160.9bn
2016 N71.9bn 2016 N44.1bn 2016 N116.0bn
2017 N111.2bn 2017 N51.9bn 2017 N163.1bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 20.41%

NET FAAC 79.59%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N1.90bn N1.07bn N13.9bn N4.3bn

>

N21.19bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N5.96bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N228.3bn $58.4m
Domestic External
N6.31bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N12.27bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Revenue
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Recurent 2013 N105.2bn
> Expenditure
N8.92bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N216.3bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess
2015 N328.3bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N321.6bn
N246.2bn
N21.19bn* N12.27bn* 2017
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 121

Delta
State
Engineered The Finger of God

Wood

With its extensive deposits of industrial clay, silica, meters per annum. Demand for industrial wood on
lignite, kaolin, tar sand and limestone, Delta does the continent is relatively small, making up only 5%
not necessarily have to remain a predominantly of global demand but when merged with the use of
crude oil and agro-based economy. wood as fuel, Africa consumes more wood overall
than any other region, including North America.
The state could launch into large-scale exporting of
engineered/composite wood to service the Any demand for wood in Africa not covered by
manufacturing, interior decorating and housing harvests from the continent’s natural forests and
industries. vegetation is almost certainly imported.

Investments would also have to be diverted into Given that a need for industrial wood is projected to
converting Delta’s hydrocarbon resources into grow from 77 million m3 in 2016 to 300 million m3
adhesives that boost the production capacity of the by 2030, while supply will grow from 46 million m3
engineered wood manufacturing sub-sector. The to 81 million m3 during the same period, forest
state will likely have to work with the federal plantations in Africa will meet less than 25% of
government to negotiate trade deals with buyers of industrial demand.
resulting end-products.
In reality, this might be somewhat optimistic, since
The market for engineered wood is growing rapidly some of the two-million hectare plantations owned
at about 24.8% yearly, and is expected to be by various Africa governments are poorly
valued at $42bn by 2022. managed, and may be subject to deforestation.
Nigeria could build a manufacturing economy
Nigeria presently imports almost all engineered around the sector; first to close the current gap in
wood, with commercial vehicles and train demand for wood, and thereafter adjust production
manufacturers currently pushing demand up - due sustainably.
to the application of these products in automotive
flooring. As Delta is striving towards making a mark as a
manufacturing hub, the state’s lignite deposits
Engineered wood like plywood also finds use in the could be explored for electricity generation, as
marine industry for the construction of decks, and every manufacturing hub needs power.
in the structural panel sector, where its uses
include the manufacture of joists and beams that Also, Delta is connected to the Middle Belt region
replace steel in many building projects. (a major grain producer) via rail and water; she can
therefore leverage this to develop ports and
Revenue from engineered wood could filter down establish an export hub for commodities along the
to consumer levels, as the commodity is rail corridor. Significant investments in silos,
increasingly used in constructing homes, warehouses and personnel will be necessary, to
commercial buildings and offices. ensure and sustain maximum operational capacity
for greater revenue receipts.
In Africa, wood is mainly used for fuel, and
consumption is in the region of 700 million cubic
2018 Edition State of States 122

Edo Sustainability
Rank 6

With Edo planning to spend N150.09bn, but Revenue not expected to

surpass N123.53bn, the state is looking at a budget deficit of N26.56bn.

Edo state is has a proposed budget of As at year-end 2017, the state’s Domestic debt
N150.09bn36 in 2018, with 55% of the funds profile stood at N68.5bn; Edo also projects raising
allocated to Capital expenditure; about N25.06bn from the foreign debt market in 2018.
N82.54bn.
With its projected population of 4.24million people
The balance of N67.56bn will be spent on the in 2016, Edo state will be spending approximately
payment of salaries, overheads and other N150,000 per person in fiscal year 2018 ,if the
Recurrent items. This is a slight rise from 2017, budget is fully implemented.
where Recurrent Expenditure was N66.04bn.
However, Actual revenue may be lower, which
To fully implement the budget, Edo foresees a could significantly impact on overall spending.
revenue uptake of N123.53bn, which is up For instance, Edo anchored its 2017 budget
15.21%, compared to 2017 estimates of projections on a FAAC revenue uptake of
N107.22bn. N58.75bn, but Actual FAAC receipts was
N36.84bn; or only 62.7% of total revenue
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) is expected to projections.
grow from N26.42bn in 2017 to N31.73bn in
fiscal year 2018, while revenue from the In all, Total revenue (from IGR and FAAC) in 2017
Federation is projected to grow by N10bn and was N62.19bn, while its projected Recurrent
N1bn respectively. expenditure was N66.03bn, meaning Edo may
have resorted to borrowing or taking up grants to
With Edo planning to spend N150.09bn, but meet its Recurrent expenditure obligations.
Revenue not expected to surpass N123.53bn,
the state is looking at a budget deficit of
N26.56bn. To plug this gap, Edo aims to raise
N1.5bn from the Domestic debt market.

36
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2018 Edition State of States 123

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N5.08bn N5.49bn N5.29bn N5.77bn N5.63bn N5.62bn

Edo
State
Heartbeat of the Nation
Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N65.2bn 2013 N18.8bn 2013 N84.1bn
2014 N58.1bn 2014 N17.0bn 2014 N75.1bn
2015 N40.1bn 2015 N19.1bn 2015 N59.2bn
2016 N25.5bn 2016 N23.0bn 2016 N48.5bn
2017 N36.8bn 2017 N25.3bn 2017 N62.2bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 27.82%

NET FAAC 72.18%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.72bn N983.3m N1.77bn N2.11bn

>

N7.59bn* (Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N2.65bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N68.5bn $232.2m
Domestic External
N2.98bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N5.63bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Revenue Recurent
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV)
(Income) Expenditure 2013 N55.3bn
>
N1.97bn
Ability to Meet 2014 N62.3bn
Monthly Recurrent Excess
2015 N79.5bn
Expenditure
Commitments 2016 N117.6bn
N7.59bn* N5.63bn* 2017 N139.7bn
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 124

Edo
State
Rubber Heartbeat of the Nation

Edo state appears to have shown some initiative Despite increasing production capacity over the
by trying to resuscitate its rubber and palm last seven years, Nigeria ranked 15 on the
plantations in conjunction with the private global production chart for rubber, as at 2016,
sector, a move likely to increase earnings. with a capacity of 156,341 tons - a mere
1.19% of global output (at 13.15million tons).
The plan is to “leverage on high-yielding
varieties and long tradition of oil palm This leaves a lot of market room, more so with
production to acquire about 100,000 hectares the increasing application of rubber in the
of land for the development of oil palm estates.” production of items such as stamp, shoes,
mulch and roofing.
We advise that the timelines in which this
project will be achieved are crucial, if Edo hopes Edo can therefore achieve increase output by
to make a dent in its debt profile and shore up putting the following measures in place:
revenue figures. The Gelegele Seaport, which mechanized farming; standard storage
is to be transformed into a container port, holds facilities; stellar transportation systems;
great promise, if Edo aggressively revitalises processing facilities and alternate point(s) of
her rubber industry – especially as the export/exit point from the country. Formal trade
commodity trades at about $2,000 per ton. agreements with any importing countries would
also be a great advantage.
If Edo puts 400,000 hectares under rubber
cultivation and invests in research to take yield Investment in rail infrastructure could also
above four tons per hectares, its rubber-based potentially open Edo’s economy to the South-
economy could top $3bn in the near term, on west and North-west corridor, ensuring smooth
the back of efficient distribution through the transfer of goods and services that in turn
seaport. results in a larger transfer of funds into the
public purse.
2018 Edition State of States 125

Rivers Sustainability
Rank 1

To retain and elevate its revenue streams, Rivers State can also choose to tap into
its various agricultural, aquaculture and tourism resources.

In fiscal year 2018, Nigeria’s sixth most-populous Notwithstanding these laudable fiscal numbers,
state is planning to spend N510bn,37 compared to the state’s revenue estimates for fiscal year 2018
the 2017 budget of N470bn and significantly look unrealistic - as suggested by figures from
above the 2016 budget, which was N307bn. 2017.

The state’s Actual revenue of N209.12bn in Rivers state’s revenue is not expected to surpass
2017, when juxtaposed with its Recurrent N260bn in 2018. Therefore, spending over
expenditure obligation of N141bn in the same N500bn on the back of potentially lower revenue
year, indicates Rivers is fiscally stable, and able to could tilt the balance of its debt deeper into
cover its Recurrent expenditure without resorting negative territory.
to borrowing.
The state may then struggle to fund its expansive
Given that in 2018, Recurrent expenditure is Capital expenditure plans pegged at N329bn,
38
expected to fall to approximately N132bn, at without the aid of donor funds or some form of
face value, the state should have no problems domestic and/or foreign borrowing.
paying its own way going forward.
Total debt as at December 2017 was
Rivers is also one of Nigeria’s richest, in terms of N211.64bn; the External debt component of this
crude oil deposits; this position comes with a came to $66.77mn, while Domestic debt grew to
significant share of annual FAAC allocations. N191.16bn in fiscal year 2017, from N91.76bn
in 2013 to N142.42bn in 2016.
In 2017, the state collected N119.63bn from the
federation account, second only to Akwa Ibom. To retain and elevate its revenue streams, Rivers
Internally-generated revenue (IGR) was State can also choose to tap into its various
approximately N89.48bn, contributing 42.79% agricultural, aquaculture and tourism resources.
of all income for 2017. The government will however have to formally
support artisanal fishermen in the riverine areas, to
Rivers collected N12,252 per person as revenue, tangibly transform Rivers’ agriculture economy
third in line to Lagos and Ogun state who have IGR from subsistence to industrial levels.
per capita of N26,610 and N14,343 respectively.
In 2015 and 2016, IGR for Rivers state was
approximately N82.1bn and N85.2bn
respectively.

37
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38
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2018 Edition State of States 126

Net FAAC Allocation 2018

N15.0bn N14.7bn
N13.7bn N13.9bn N13.6bn N13.9bn

River State
Treasure Base of the Nation

Jan Feb Mar April May June

Net FAAC Allocation IGR Total Revenue

2013 N246.4bn 2013 N87.9bn 2013 N334.3bn
2014 N184.2bn 2014 N89.1bn 2014 N273.3bn
2015 N105.2bn 2015 N82.1bn 2015 N187.3bn
2016 N81.9bn 2016 N85.3bn 2016 N167.2bn
2017 N119.6bn 2017 N89.5bn 2017 N209.1bn

Structure of State’s Revenue 2018

IGR 34.48%

NET FAAC 65.52%

> REVENUE
Average Monthly Average Average Monthly Revenue
Average Monthly Average 13% Share of Monthly IGR
Statutory Allocation Monthly VAT Derivation
(Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018) (Jan-Jun 2018)

N2.88bn N1.48bn N9.81bn N7.46bn

>

N21.6bn*(Jan-June 2018)

> EXPENDITURE AVERAGE MONTHLY

RECURRENT EXPENDITURE

N N5.21bn*
AVERAGE MONTHLY PERSONNEL
COST (JAN-JUN 2018) N
>
N191.2bn $66.8m
Domestic External
N5.79bn*
Debt
(2017)
Debt
(2017) AVERAGE MONTHLY OVERHEAD
COST (JAN-JUN 2018)
N11.00bn*
(Jan-June 2018)

2018 Monthly Estimates

Total Debt Stock
Download: State of States Datasheet (CSV) Revenue
(Income) 2013 N136.4bn
>
Recurrent 2014 N99.9bn
Ability to Meet N10.63bn Expenditure
Monthly Recurrent 2015 N144.2bn
Expenditure Excess
Commitments 2016 N236.2bn
2017 N211.6bn
N21.63bn* N11.0bn*
Source: NBS, OAGF, DMO, World Bank, BudgIT Research BudgIT Estimate*
2018 Edition State of States 127

Biofuel River State

(Algae) Treasure Base of the Nation

To keep revenue entering its coffers, Rivers Blessed with an upland area of 760,000 arable
state may decide to expand its various hectares, Rivers is a leader among its peers in
agricultural, aquaculture and tourism resources the production of palm oil, yam, rice and beans.
beyond oil.
The state could build a vibrant manufacturing-
With a rich network of coastlines that run into export industry based around that sector, if it
the Atlantic Ocean, an added aquaculture engages speedily with the federal government
market is available for the taking. to expand activities at the Rivers Port Complex.

The government will however have to formally This should be augmented with a full overhaul of
support artisanal fishermen in the riverine areas, the processes that cover the assessment,
to tangibly transform Rivers’ agriculture exploitation and management of the state’s
economy from subsistence to industrial levels. hydrocarbon potentials. We advise that Rivers
becomes hands-on with the scheduled oil spill
Rivers state earns most of its income from clean-up being mediated by the United Nations.
crude oil, a commodity with an increasingly
bleak outlook, as demand slows, amid A speedy resolution of all existing crises which
production gluts. affect its crude earnings will also proactively
free up revenue that can be channeled into
Also, the global electric car market is expected diversifying Rivers’ economy away from the
to catch on across Europe, with battery- finite commodity that is crude.
powered vehicles expected to account for all
new cars sold in 11 European countries by as
early as 2035.
Rankings
2018 Edition State of States 129

ABILITY OF STATES TO MEET MONTHLY RECURRENT

EXPENDITURE OBLIGATIONS JAN - JUNE, 2018)

Average Monthly
Recurrent Average Monthly Recurrent Expenditure
Expenditure Revenue Surplus/Deficit
States (NGN’bn) (NGN’bn) (NGN’bn)
ABIA 5.7 5.65 -0.05
ADAMAWA 6.5 4.47 -2.03
AKWA IBOM 17.96 18.03 0.07
ANAMBRA 5.37 5.85 0.48
BAUCHI 5.59 4.63 -0.96
BAYELSA 13.33 13.9 0.57
BENUE 4.23* 5.42 1.19
BORNO 5.27 5.42 0.16
CROSS-RIVER 32.5 4.36 -28.14
DELTA 12.27 21.19 8.92
EBONYI 3.56 4.03 0.47
EDO 5.63 7.59 1.97
EKITI 4.69* 3.4 -1.29
ENUGU 4.33* 6.01 1.69
GOMBE 4.41 3.88 -0.54
IMO 4.83 4.8 -0.02
JIGAWA 5.96 5.35 -0.62
KADUNA 4.80* 7.69 2.88
KANO 4.35* 10.18 5.83
KATSINA 4.28 5.24 0.95
KEBBI 3.58 4.69 1.1
KOGI 5.24 5.13 -0.11
KWARA 6.69 5.2 -1.49
LAGOS 28.92 37.75 8.83
NASARAWA 4.44 4.29 -0.15
NIGER 3.92* 5.08 1.16
OGUN 10.09 9.37 -0.72
ONDO 3.51* 6.07 2.56
OSUN 7.22 2.25 -4.97
OYO 10.14 6.56 -3.58
PLATEAU 6.33 4.33 -1.99
RIVERS 11 21.63 10.63
SOKOTO 5.63 4.95 -0.68
TARABA 4.27 4.23 -0.04
YOBE 3.9 4.5 0.6
ZAMFARA 3.87 3.61 -0.26
Source: OAGF, NBS, State Government websites, BudgIT Research
Surplus Deficit
*Actual Recurrent Expenditure (Based on Audited Financial Statements)
2018 Edition State of States 130

INTERNALLY GENERATED
REVENUE RANKING 2017
State (NGN’bn)
LAGOS 333,967,978,880
RIVERS 89,484,983,409
OGUN 74,835,979,001
DELTA 51,888,005,338
KANO 42,418,811,471
KADUNA 26,530,562,881
EDO 25,342,829,212
OYO 22,448,338,825
ENUGU 22,039,222,903
KWARA 19,637,873,512
CROSS RIVER 18,104,562,226
ANAMBRA 17,365,385,831
AKWA IBOM 15,956,354,035
ABIA 14,917,141,806
BAYELSA 12,523,812,451
BENUE 12,399,414,558
KOGI 11,244,260,975
ONDO 10,927,871,480
PLATEAU 10,788,283,409
SOKOTO 9,018,844,307
IMO 6,850,796,866
JIGAWA 6,650,200,980
NIGER 6,517,939,033
OSUN 6,486,524,226
ADAMAWA 6,201,369,567
NASARAWA 6,174,136,953
KATSINA 6,029,850,858
ZAMFARA 6,023,994,931
TARABA 5,764,251,234
GOMBE 5,272,273,408
EBONYI 5,102,902,367
BORNO 4,983,331,049
EKITI 4,967,499,816
KEBBI 4,393,773,965
BAUCHI 4,369,411,450
YOBE 3,598,131,937

Source: NBS
2018 Edition State of States 131

AVERAGE MONTHLY VAT

JANUARY- JUNE, 2018
State (NGN)
LAGOS 8,033,486,674.33
KANO 1,611,579,042.20
RIVERS 1,479,360,693.70
OYO 1,375,443,802.92
KADUNA 1,264,497,808.35
KATSINA 1,153,958,058.53
OGUN 1,073,051,769.39
DELTA 1,066,072,249.59
JIGAWA 1,053,685,948.59
ANAMBRA 1,039,095,961.67
BAUCHI 1,035,249,614.84
AKWA IBOM 999,807,172.21
BENUE 994,372,063.21
EDO 983,309,310.39
IMO 982,648,578.61
BORNO 982,039,892.95
NIGER 980,944,994.70
SOKOTO 940,894,406.80
ONDO 929,403,196.96
ENUGU 925,238,962.12
OSUN 924,835,685.06
KOGI 917,894,291.96
ADAMAWA 914,883,126.47
PLATEAU 914,852,402.05
KEBBI 914,055,341.05
ZAMFARA 903,162,844.68
ABIA 885,633,699.69
CROSS RIVER 878,993,879.95
KWARA 843,809,984.66
YOBE 833,002,601.55
EKITI 832,879,299.52
TARABA 824,942,908.26
EBONYI 824,128,401.85
GOMBE 822,613,429.09
BAYELSA 797,110,129.72
NASARAWA 787,652,119.47

Source: OAGF, BudgIT Research

2018 Edition State of States 132

TOTAL NET FAAC ALLOCATION

JANUARY - JUNE, 2018
State (NGN)
DELTA 190,962,781,383
AKWA IBOM 182,663,388,643
RIVERS 152,742,441,190
BAYELSA 142,929,651,913
LAGOS 107,848,456,767
KANO 49,550,359,978
EDO 49,419,613,997
ONDO 45,823,482,798
KADUNA 40,448,070,959
OYO 36,412,552,578
BORNO 35,928,291,701
ABIA 35,813,668,789
KATSINA 35,320,590,023
JIGAWA 35,070,508,950
IMO 33,945,382,955
NIGER 33,122,107,508
ANAMBRA 32,657,769,876
BENUE 32,272,437,952
BAUCHI 31,807,368,178
KEBBI 31,404,725,741
SOKOTO 30,863,863,973
KOGI 30,683,664,520
ENUGU 30,611,689,367
YOBE 30,183,106,702
ADAMAWA 29,204,615,839
TARABA 27,443,528,358
NASSARAWA 27,359,762,000
EBONYI 26,550,754,660
KWARA 26,455,055,937
PLATEAU 26,087,692,440
GOMBE 25,571,765,953
OGUN 25,231,833,368
ZAMFARA 24,062,330,766
EKITI 22,912,306,994
CROSS RIVER 22,400,167,785
OSUN 15,792,381,865

Source: OAGF, BudgIT Research

2018 Edition State of States 133

RANKINGS -DOMESTIC DEBT ( 2017)

Rank States (NGN)
1 LAGOS 363,292,140,059.09
2 DELTA 228,328,360,009.20
3 RIVERS 191,156,694,184.66
4 AKWA IBOM 187,277,308,914.29
5 OSUN 138,239,593,287.18
6 BAYELSA 129,469,645,258.94
7 OYO 129,213,604,205.51
8 CROSS RIVER 125,648,705,542.50
9 PLATEAU 122,349,286,591.51
10 EKITI 117,495,679,340.86
11 OGUN 106,530,499,037.83
12 KOGI 102,359,193,069.66
13 KANO 92,257,051,132.42
14 KADUNA 83,825,686,332.40
15 IMO 80,785,160,471.66
16 BENUE 74,937,383,496.72
* 32 State Domestic Debt Stock Figures
17 BAUCHI 74,020,717,883.30 are as at December, 2017
** 3 States (Akwa Ibom, Katsina and Lagos States)
18 NASARAWA 71,359,977,984.75 were as at September, 2017
*** While Borno State Figure was at June, 2017
19 ZAMFARA 69,923,231,483.13
20 ADAMAWA 69,609,083,183.53
21 EDO 68,514,312,630.61
22 TARABA 60,851,260,638.76
23 ABIA 60,648,431,912.05
24 ENUGU 59,746,077,051.15
25 ONDO 58,550,792,418.38
26 BORNO 54,042,067,995.82
27 KEBBI 48,729,499,853.64
28 GOMBE 41,939,190,055.53
29 KWARA 40,264,714,626.56
30 NIGER 40,031,508,233.85
31 EBONYI 34,613,143,814.14
32 JIGAWA 33,269,858,797.75
33 KATSINA 31,116,244,034.12
34 YOBE 26,467,942,394.82
35 SOKOTO 26,028,103,448.98
36 ANAMBRA 2,612,431,503.89

Source: DMO
2018 Edition State of States 134

RANKINGS : EXTERNAL DEBT (2017)

State USD
Lagos 1,466,164,553.72
Kaduna 238,279,089.98
Edo 232,204,507.95
Cross River 167,922,477.17
Enugu 133,109,100.89
Bauchi 109,828,380.96
Ogun 107,449,174.80
Abia 101,486,013.74
Osun 96,607,386.38
Adamawa 94,574,331.40
Oyo 93,218,640.36
Anambra 85,924,044.73
Ekiti 78,053,560.27
Katsina 67,864,607.66
Rivers 66,766,028.40
Kano 66,534,693.84
Ebonyi 63,373,675.28
Nasarawa 62,878,628.37
Imo 62,848,234.69
Delta 58,391,491.08
Niger 56,822,601.53
Kwara 50,726,592.99
Akwa Ibom 50,523,477.21
Ondo 50,251,762.16
Kebbi 47,820,060.27
Bayelsa 47,769,179.56
Sokoto 41,161,222.60
Gombe 39,194,159.32
Benue 35,503,110.17
Zamfara 34,833,758.57
Jigawa 33,497,712.80
Kogi 33,030,039.02
Plateau 30,071,776.51
Yobe 29,564,923.26
Taraba 26,563,234.69
Borno 22,594,569.70
Source: DMO
2018 Edition State of States 135

2018 Budget Size

States Budget Size
Cross River 1.3tn
Lagos 1.046tn
Akwa -Ibom 646.65bn
Rivers 510bn
Ogun 343.9bn
Bayelsa 316.9bn
Delta 308.8bn
Oyo 271.5bn
Kano 246.6bn
Sokoto 220.5bn
Kaduna 216.5bn
Kastina 213.6bn
Ebonyi 208.33bn
Imo 190.9bn
Kwara 190.9bn
Ondo 181.42bn
Borno 181.2bn
Benue 178.4bn
Adamawa 177.9bn
Osun 176.4bn
Anambra 170.9bn
Bauchi 167.89bn
Kogi 151.6bn
Kebbi 151.2bn
Edo 150.09bn
Plateau 146.4bn
Abia 141bn
Jigawa 138.6bn
Niger 134.2bn
Zamfara 133bn
Nasarawa 125.4bn
Gombe 114bn
Taraba 104.3bn
Enugu 103.5bn
Ekiti 98.6bn
Yobe 92.18bn
Source: State Government Websites, BudgIT Research
2018 Edition State of States 136

The Research
Methodology
Weight of the Fiscal Sustainability Inex

35% 50%
Index A Index B
Ability of States to meet
Recurrent Expenditure Ability of States to meet
obligations using state-own Recurrent Expenditure
revenue (IGR + 13% Derivation obligations using state’s
+ Value Added Tax) Total revenue without
recourse to debts or grant.

15%
Index C
Looks at Length of time (in years)
required to repay outstanding debts
using today’s revenue.
 2018 STATES’ FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY INDEX
METHODOLOGY
Index A Index A Index A Sustainability Idex Scores

(Monthly
*Gross VAT Recurrent (Recurrent Recurrent (Total Debt ((Index A x 0.35) +
Gross Statutory *13% Share of Allocation Internally *Total Average Total Debt Stock Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Stock (Index B x
Allocation (Average Derivation Oil ( Average January Generated Monthly ( As at December (Budgetary / IGR + 13% Estimated / / Total 0.50) +
Rank States January to July 2018) Producing State to July 2018) Revenue Revenue 2017) Allocation) Derivation + VAT) Total Revenue) Revenue) (Index C x 0.15)) (100/Index )

1 RIVERS 15,278,463,871.61 9,453,672,002.58 1,453,534,866.39 7,457,081,951.00 33,642,752,691.58 211,637,173,396.36 132,000,000,000.00 7.18786342853 3.92357906055 6.29072107555 5.42114989159 18.44627099411
2 DELTA 18,914,011,693.69 13,449,778,523.68 1,059,579,920.76 4,324,000,445.00 37,747,370,583.13 246,239,949,897.99 147,270,000,000.00 7.81963540676 3.90146380330 6.52336695494 5.66610933726 17.64879462216
3 BAYELSA 14,235,935,815.67 9,759,867,458.84 791,624,597.43 1,043,651,038.00 25,831,078,909.94 144,122,841,088.97 160,000,000,000.00 13.79888102279 6.19408893286 5.57943559351 8.76356816343 11.41087718325
4 LAGOS 12,837,875,126.48 18,573,517.65 8,011,590,803.26 27,830,664,907.00 48,698,704,354.39 813,038,116,912.70 347,000,000,000.00 9.67629604421 7.12544624339 16.69527203426 9.45371754231 10.57784935423
5 AKWA IBOM 17,479,330,795.47 12,170,604,672.88 992,177,104.06 1,329,696,170.00 31,971,808,742.41 202,775,385,548.46 215,510,000,000.00 14.87047286110 6.74062583498 6.34231823361 9.52632615391 10.49722614829
6 EDO 6,149,671,363.51 1,722,929,170.91 983,421,517.80 2,111,902,434.00 10,967,924,486.22 139,743,045,444.27 67,500,000,000.00 14.00922663898 6.15430933034 12.74106560634 9.89154382976 10.10964534162
7 KANO 7,296,145,667.14 1,603,615,750.56 3,534,900,956.00 12,434,662,373.70 112,666,568,467.84 83,430,000,000.00 16.23620292866 6.70947046994 9.06068577351 10.39650912603 9.61861320832
8 OGUN 4,394,691,745.69 1,060,488,768.38 6,236,331,583.00 11,691,512,097.07 139,490,533,407.73 121,100,000,000.00 16.59626990503 10.35794164130 11.93092324154 12.77730377364 7.82637728362
9 ONDO 5,836,842,588.18 1,479,333,827.59 925,305,392.56 910,655,956.60 9,152,137,764.93 73,965,520,460.96 78,500,000,000.00 23.67813296099 8.57723102692 8.08177524866 13.78822833710 7.25256338633
10 ENUGU 4,530,177,261.33 920,996,692.37 1,836,601,909.00 7,287,775,862.70 100,577,293,749.16 60,700,000,000.00 22.01190556517 8.32901575784 13.80082149122 13.93879805041 7.17421973102
11 ANAMBRA 4,596,090,679.52 1,027,756,821.55 1,447,115,486.00 7,070,962,987.07 28,969,632,224.82 64,400,000,000.00 26.02154454738 9.10767035802 4.09698541455 14.27592358278 7.00480073462
12 ABIA 4,921,450,257.73 645,475,531.84 878,342,477.06 1,243,095,150.00 7,688,363,416.63 91,779,266,626.80 68,400,000,000.00 24.72068911161 8.89656176398 11.93742564618 14.89113591798 6.71540442252
13 KATSINA 5,557,218,951.73 1,145,670,275.52 502,487,571.50 7,205,376,798.75 51,933,712,433.83 51,410,000,000.00 31.19240071147 7.13494955724 7.20763311682 15.56595999516 6.42427450868
14 KADUNA 5,955,053,197.99 1,252,858,714.85 2,210,880,240.00 9,418,792,152.84 156,917,797,183.77 85,400,000,000.00 24.65543769701 9.06697999215 16.66007643416 15.66190465515 6.38491947192
15 IMO 5,161,913,870.76 427,320,531.94 979,007,647.18 570,899,738.80 7,139,141,788.68 100,063,856,462.82 57,900,000,000.00 29.28342224750 8.11021852680 14.01623044124 16.40674161621 6.09505545581
16 KEBBI 4,696,728,662.93 907,186,340.63 366,147,830.40 5,970,062,833.96 63,398,303,341.46 42,990,000,000.00 33.76175789363 7.20092923570 10.61936952838 17.00998530987 5.87889984490
17 NIGER 5,225,030,199.25 973,967,576.63 543,161,586.10 6,742,159,361.98 57,461,841,253.18 53,200,000,000.00 35.06622989454 7.89064706776 8.52276521039 17.49691877853 5.71529200460
18 EBONYI 4,029,759,522.01 819,031,542.45 425,241,863.90 5,274,032,928.36 54,053,018,706.28 42,700,000,000.00 34.31721660375 8.09627102827 10.24889670590 17.59649583133 5.68294965989
19 ZAMFARA 4,469,033,930.59 897,692,903.56 501,999,577.60 5,868,726,411.75 80,608,486,924.48 46,400,000,000.00 33.15013878016 7.90631505791 13.73526064583 17.61599519889 5.67665913115
20 KWARA 4,032,183,207.07 837,573,611.09 1,636,489,459.00 6,506,246,277.16 55,825,097,026.24 80,308,000,000.00 32.45996473205 12.34321551613 8.58023115759 18.81963008792 5.31360072078
21 KOGI 4,878,318,336.42 911,811,551.43 937,021,747.90 6,727,151,635.75 112,491,157,539.05 62,874,000,000.00 34.00739267450 9.34630336945 16.72195954990 19.08403305328 5.23998254042
22 YOBE 4,390,792,208.20 827,040,930.80 299,844,328.00 5,517,677,467.00 35,536,982,604.83 46,750,000,000.00 41.48603385742 8.47276780486 6.44056902879 19.72258110684 5.07033027058
23 SOKOTO 4,891,737,201.74 936,517,570.17 751,570,358.90 6,579,825,130.81 38,654,308,481.53 67,600,000,000.00 40.04530737759 10.27382926690 5.87467109126 20.03397287929 4.99152118267
24 TARABA 4,276,226,521.19 819,199,310.50 480,354,269.50 5,575,780,101.19 68,999,532,879.92 51,240,000,000.00 39.42892450806 9.18974548316 12.37486622996 20.25122625390 4.93797258232
25 GOMBE 4,197,730,048.75 817,336,064.49 439,356,117.40 5,454,422,230.64 53,961,998,426.94 52,970,000,000.00 42.15033781808 9.71138605707 9.89325654399 21.09229974646 4.74106670216
26 BENUE 5,012,346,732.90 987,545,617.05 1,033,284,546.00 7,033,176,895.95 85,827,962,541.37 81,900,000,000.00 40.52789863171 11.64480877015 12.20329927871 21.83766379798 4.57924441575
27 NASSARAWA 4,091,426,257.14 781,803,851.28 514,511,412.70 5,387,741,521.12 90,647,997,237.25 53,241,000,000.00 41.07102761140 9.88187718199 16.82486007948 21.83952726691 4.57885368936
28 BORNO 5,434,926,320.80 976,023,494.85 415,277,587.40 6,826,227,403.05 60,972,952,251.30 63,180,000,000.00 45.41073158502 9.25547835863 8.93215954453 21.86131916575 4.57428937576
29 JIGAWA 5,058,852,182.45 1,045,426,932.88 554,183,415.00 6,658,462,530.33 43,545,282,199.15 71,565,000,000.00 44.73902040884 10.74797667990 6.53984039120 22.01362154173 4.54264191880
30 OYO 5,403,156,909.41 1,377,911,100.97 1,870,694,902.00 8,651,762,912.38 157,808,422,135.94 121,700,000,000.00 37.46222222354 14.06649734077 18.24003081616 22.88103107105 4.37043242018
31 PLATEAU 4,654,335,857.11 906,699,361.96 899,023,617.50 6,460,058,836.57 131,573,804,035.95 75,900,000,000.00 42.03302547697 11.74911899723 20.36727642342 23.64120987907 4.22990195982
32 BAUCHI 5,323,646,679.79 1,030,821,495.46 364,117,620.90 6,718,585,796.15 107,710,573,742.78 67,120,000,000.00 48.11679535889 9.99019764523 16.03173301806 24.24073715094 4.12528708914
33 ADAMAWA 4,484,269,877.72 909,238,619.58 516,780,797.30 5,910,289,294.60 98,619,759,340.48 78,000,000,000.00 54.69771244115 13.19732353394 16.68611372891 28.24577818071 3.54035209652
34 EKITI 4,039,746,852.78 830,830,668.31 413,958,318.00 5,284,535,839.09 141,438,608,953.68 66,530,000,000.00 53.44680964540 12.58956359192 26.76462290358 29.01585860739 3.44639120810
35 OSUN 4,191,125,326.53 918,044,917.12 540,543,685.50 5,649,713,929.15 167,873,909,059.25 86,600,000,000.00 59.37246448001 15.32820972637 29.71370075803 32.90152254489 3.03937302183
36 CROSS RIVER 4,484,336,133.26 875,467,034.07 1,508,713,519.00 6,868,516,686.33 177,158,925,414.40 390,000,000,000.00 163.57821537375 56.78081859744 25.79289437660 89.51171883602 1.11717215690
OAGF, NBS, DMO, BUDGIT RESEARCH
2018 Edition State of States 139

2017: PER CAPITA INTERNALLY

GENERATED REVENUE
Ranking State Amount
1 Lagos 25,772
2 Ogun 13,877
3 Rivers 11,842
4 Delta 8,874
5 Kwara 5,969
6 Edo 5,824
7 Bayelsa 5,341
8 Enugu 4,849
9 Cross-River 4,549
10 Abia 3,895
11 Kano 3,139
12 Kaduna 3,120
13 Anambra 3,055
14 Akwa Ibom 2,813
15 Oyo 2,767
16 Plateau 2,500
17 Kogi 2,439 Average
18
19
Nassarawa
Ondo
2,374
2,270
N3,818/Year
20 Benue 2,096
21 Taraba 1,826
22 Sokoto 1,751 www.yourbudgit.com
23 Ebonyi 1,723
24 Gombe 1,568
25 Ekiti 1,472
26
27
Adamawa
Osun
1,418
1,335 SIMPLIFYING THE
28
29
30
Zamfara
Imo
Niger
1,292
1,227
1,134
NIGERIAN BUDGET
31 Jigawa 1,108 At BudgIT, we believe it is the RIGHT of every citizen to have access to,
32 Yobe 1,055 and also understand public budgets. We also believe budgets must be
33
efficiently implemented for the GOOD of the people.
Kebbi 959
34 Borno 822
35 Katsina 747
36 Bauchi 646
Source: NBS, CBN, BudgIT Research

* State Population ** IGR Numbers

2017 Population Forecast Source: NBS 2017

*All IGR per capita figures are calculated based on IGR in 2017, and population figures from 2017.