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BinPois ProblemSets Soln

The document discusses discrete random variables and provides examples of applying the binomial and Poisson distributions. It includes examples calculating probabilities related to tax audits, number of workers missing work due to injuries, number of functioning engines on an aircraft, customer arrivals at a bakery, and number of people arriving at a cashier's counter. Harder problems discuss probabilities for people attending a meeting and consuming tea, number of raisins on cookies, and number of accidents at a campus.

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indranil biswas
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51 views3 pages

BinPois ProblemSets Soln

The document discusses discrete random variables and provides examples of applying the binomial and Poisson distributions. It includes examples calculating probabilities related to tax audits, number of workers missing work due to injuries, number of functioning engines on an aircraft, customer arrivals at a bakery, and number of people arriving at a cashier's counter. Harder problems discuss probabilities for people attending a meeting and consuming tea, number of raisins on cookies, and number of accidents at a campus.

Uploaded by

indranil biswas
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Discrete Random Variables: Binomial and Poisson

Ex. 1 — According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the chances of


your tax return being audited are about 15 in 1,000 if your income is less
than $100,000 and 30 in 1000 if your income is $100,000 or more (Statistical
Abstract of the United States: 1998).

1.What is the probability that a taxpayer with income less than $100,000
0.0015, 0.03
will be audited by the IRS? With income $100,000 or more?

2.If five taxpayers with incomes under $100,000 are randomly selected, what
0.007455, 0.00002
is the probability that exactly one will be audited? That more than one
will be audited?

3.Repeat the above question assuming that five taxpayers with incomes of
0.1328, 0.0085
$100,000 or more are randomly selected.

Ex. 2 — As the baby boom generation ages, the number of employees in-
jured on the job will continue to increase. A recent poll by the Gallup Orga-
nization sponsored by Philadelphia-based CIGNA Integrated Care found that
about 40% of employees have missed work due to a musculoskeletal (back) in-
jury of some kind (National Underwriter, Apr 5,1999). Let X be the number
of sampled workers who have missed work due to a back injury. A random
4, 2.4
sample of 10 workers is to be drawn from a particular manufacturing plant.
Find the mean and standard deviation of X, the number of workers that
missed work due to back injuries.

Ex. 3 — A commercial jet aircraft has four engines. For an aircraft in flight
to land safely, at least two engines should be in working condition. Each engine
has an independent reliability of p = 92%. What is the probability that an
0.998
aircraft in flight can land safely?

Ex. 4 — As part of a project targeted at improving the services of a local


bakery, a management consultant (L. Lei of Rutgers University) monitored
customer arrivals for several Saturdays and Sundays. Using the arrival data,
she estimated the average number of customer arrivals per 10-minute period
on Saturdays to be 6.2. She assumed that arrivals per 10-minute interval

D R A F T August 2, 2018, 3:34pm D R A F T


xxii

followed the Poisson distribution. The owner of the bakery claims that more
0.0000000163
than 75 customers per hour enter the store on Saturdays. Based on the
consultant’s data, is this likely’ ? Explain.

Ex. 5 — The number X of people who arrive at a cashier’s counter in a bank


during a specified period of time often exhibits (approximately) a Poisson 0.08.
probability distribution. If we know the mean arrival rate λ, the Poisson
probability distribution can be used to aid in the design of the customer
service facility. Suppose you estimate that the mean number of arrivals per
minute for cashier service at a bank is one person per minute. What is the
probability that in a given minute the number of arrivals will equal three or
more? Can you tell the bank manager that the number of arrivals will rarely
exceed two per minute?
Harder Problems:
Ex. 6 — 20 people have been asked to attend a meeting. Each of them
has 50% chance of appearing in the meeting. The convener of the meeting
See problem set solution
have to order refreshments. Any person attending the meeting likes tea with
probability 0.56. Based on this observation the convener orders 9 cups of tea.
What is the probability that 9 cups will be consumed and no extra needs to
be ordered? What is the probability of no tea being ordered? What is the
chance that there will be shortage of tea by 2 cups?

Ex. 7 — Suppose the number of raisins on a cookie follows Poisson distri-


bution.

1.the average number of raisins on a cookie if the probability of finding no


lambda= 1.301
raisin in a randomly chosen cookie is 0.05.

2.What is the probability of finding exactly 5 cookies with more than one
X~Bin(50, P(X>1)-0.37);
raisin on each cookie in a batch of 50 randomly chosen cookies? P(X=5)=0.000017

Ex. 8 — Number of accidents in campus follow a Poisson distribution with


See problem set solution
an average of λ per day. The accident turns serious with probability p. Find
the probability of observing k serious accidents in a day.

D R A F T August 2, 2018, 3:34pm D R A F T


xxiii

Requires good knowledge of mathematics: Not for exam but for


those who wants to sharpen their skills

Ex. 9 — Check whether the function f (x) = x,


c
x = 1, 2, 3 . . . is a pmf or
no, the total does not converge.
not.
Ex. 10 — Check whether the function f (x) = x2 ,
c
x = 1, 2, 3 . . . is a pmf or
Yes, c=6/pi*pi; E[X] does not exist
not. What is E[X]?

Ex. 11 — Check whether the function f (x) = x3 ,


c
x = 1, 2, 3 . . . is a pmf or
Yes; c= 1/Riemann's zeta(3)
not. What is E[X] and V (X)? E[X]= pi*pi/(6XRiemann zeta(3))
V(X) does not exist.

D R A F T August 2, 2018, 3:34pm D R A F T

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