Strategic Insider Trading Equilibrium With A Non-Fiduciary Market Maker
Strategic Insider Trading Equilibrium With A Non-Fiduciary Market Maker
Abstract
The continuous-time version of Kyle’s (1985) model is studied, in
which market makers are not fiduciaries. They have some market
power which they utilize to set the price to their advantage, resulting
in positive expected profits. This has several implications for the
equilibrium, the most important being that by setting a modest fee
conditional of the order flow, the market maker is able to obtain a
profit of the order of magnitude, and even better than, a perfectly
informed insider. Our model also indicates why speculative prices are
more volatile than predicted by fundamentals.
KEYWORDS: Insider trading, asymmetric information, strategic
trade, price distortion, non-fiduciary market maker, bid-ask spread,
linear filtering theory, innovation equation
Mathematics Subject Classification 2010: 60G35, 62M20, 93E10,
94Axx
1 Introduction
In his seminal paper on insider trading, Albert Kyle (1985) asks several
questions: How valuable is private information to an insider? How does
1
Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), Helleveien 30, N–5045 Bergen, Norway.
2
Dept of Mathematics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1053 Blindern, N–0316 Oslo, Nor-
way.
1
noise trading affect the volatility of prices? What determines the liquidity of
a speculative market? He provides answers to these and other questions by
modeling rigorously the trading strategy of an insider in a model of efficient
price information.
One important feature of a real securities market that remained unex-
plained in Kyle’s analysis is the existence of a bid-ask spread. Kyle focuses
on a single auction model in which a risky asset is exchanged for a riskless
asset among three kinds of traders. A single insider has access to perfect,
private observation of the ex post liquidation value of the risky asset. Un-
informed noise traders trade randomly. Market makers set prices and clear
the markets after observing the quantities traded by others.
In the Kyle model the noise traders can be considered as less than fully
rational, since they expect to suffer losses equal to the insiders’ gains. The
market makers set the prices equal to the expected value of the risky asset
conditional on the order flow; they are making zero profits. The market
makers cannot distinguish the trading of the insider from the trading of the
noise traders, who in effect provide camouflage, which enables the insider to
make profits on their expense.
The market maker in the standard model has substantial market power,
yet does not exploit this to his own advantage when setting the price; the
market maker is assumed to be a fiduciary acting in the best interest of
market participants.
One may ask how realistic this assumption is. In the testimony before
the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein laid
out the Goldman Sachs perspective on the firm’s role in CDO deals related
to the 2008 financial crisis. From his answer it seems clear that he does not
consider a market maker as a fiduciary agent:
In our market-making function, we are a principal. We represent the
other side of what people want to do. We are not a fiduciary. We are not an
agent. Of course, we have an obligation to fully disclose what an instrument
is and to be honest in our dealings, but we are not managing somebody else’s
money.
Caveat emptor seems to be Mr. Blankfein’s message, and this was also the
basis of Goldman’s defense against the SEC suit re the Abacus transactions.
The case of Goldman Sachs is, we believe, not unique. Investment banks
and other financial intermediaries are known to accumulate large fortunes,
which should be difficult, or even impossible, if they were just disinterested
auctioneers.
2
In this paper, we investigate the consequences of relaxing the assump-
tion that market makers are fiduciaries. In our model, market makers are
economic agents allowed to make a profit. Market makers generate prof-
its by adding a margin to the conditional expected value of the risky asset
when they are going short. Similarly they are subtracting a margin when
taking long positions. Formally, the margin is a random variable, which is
correlated with aggregate demand. Thus, market makers are not just adding
or subtracting a fee; the size of the fee depends on trading volume. As in
the standard model, informed traders realize what market makers are up to,
and take their behavior into account when deciding their own trades. Noise
traders just trade, we could allow them to have partial information as in
Aase, Bjuland and Øksendal (2012a), but we have chosen to let these agents
be uninformed. Despite of this, market makers may make unbounded profits
taking advantage of noise traders, which would not make sense. To avoid
this outcome a regulator is introduced. Alternatively, the market maker may
be assumed to practice restraint in order to keep markets open.
These issues were addressed in a recent paper (Aase and Gjesdal (2017)),
in the setting of a one-period model. It is of interest to extend this analysis to
several periods, which we do in this paper, where we consider a continuous-
time model.
As in the one-period model our analysis shows, perhaps surprisingly, that
for only a moderate correlation with the aggregate demand, the profits of
the market maker may exceed that of the perfectly informed insider. In the
paper we illustrate the time profiles of these profits. This could serve as one
explanation of why so much wealth tends to end up in the hands of financial
intermediaries, a timely question that has been asked many times over after
the 2008-financial crisis.
Another implication is that the market maker’s actions leads to a more
volatile price then would be the case if dealings were fair. This may throw
some light on the observation made by Campbell and Schiller (1988): Stock
market prices display much more volatility than implied by dividends alone.
The more recent approach to this problem is to consider the variations in
the stochastic discount factor, see e.g., Campbell (1999). We try to see if
the effects of the actions of market makers are substantial enough to explain
parts of this problem.
To limit the distortion of prices, a regulatory authority (the SEC) impose
an upper bound on price volatility. In our model this limits the degree to
which the market maker can perturb the price, and allows us to find an
3
equilibrium in which the insider maximizes profits and the market maker
trades ”fees”. Even if the regulatory constraint limits the market maker’s
degree of price distortion, still the market maker’s profit may exceed that of
the perfectly well informed insider. This happens for reasonable degrees of
price distortions, a consept developed in the paper.
Our pricing functional is nonlinear, which seems like a popular topic in
itself in parts of the extant literature, together with ”model uncertainty” and
similar issues. In our model the nonlinearity stems from a specific economic
assumption, namely that the market maker trades fees. As we know, in neo-
classical equilibrium theory prices are linear for a variety of reasons, among
others to avoid arbitrage possibilities, which is not an issue here.
There is a rich literature on the one period model, as well as on discrete
time insider trading, e.g., Holden and Subrahmanyam (1992), Admati and
Pfleiderer (1988), and others, all adding insights to this class of problems.
Glosten and Milgrom (1985) present a different approach, containing sim-
ilar results to Kyle. Before Kyle (1985) and Glosten and Milgrom (1985)
there is also a huge literature on insider trading in which the insider acts
competitively, e.g., Grossman and Stiglitz (1980).
The approach of this article is to study the continuous-time model di-
rectly, not as a limiting model of a sequence of auctions, and use the machin-
ery of infinitely dimensional optimization, directional derivatives (or calculus
of variations) and filtering theory to solve the problem. We also consider al-
ternatively the stochastic maximum principle in the setting of differential
game theory, as well as the Bellman approach in two appendices.
We are able to find the price of the risky asset, the various profits of the
participants, all in terms of the insider’s trading intensity. The latter we show
satisfies an integral equation, that can be solved by an iterative procedure.
This we illustrate numerically, by graphs of the the trading intensity, the
profits of the agents, and the other key variables developed in in the paper.
The paper is organized as follows: The model is explained in Section 2.
The analysis of the continuous time model starts in Section 3, where the
mean, the variance and the covariances of the order flow y is derived in Sec-
tion 3.1, with preliminary expressions for the profit functions of the insider
and the market maker. In Section 4 the insider’s optimization problem is
solved in Theorem 1, resulting in final expressions for the various profit func-
tions, as well as the other quantities of interest. In Section 5 we suggest how
the regulator’s problem may be solved, in Section 6 we introduce a measure
of price informativeness in the market, and present numerical illustrations.
4
Section 7 presents various graphs and computations, which illustrate the key
quantities in the paper. This is where we demonstrate our main conclusions.
In Section 8 we provide some suggestions for further research, and Section 9
concludes. The paper also contains four appendices.
2 The Model
At time T there is to be a public release of information that will perfectly
reveal the value of an asset; cf. fair value accounting. Trading in this asset
and a risk-free asset with interest rate zero is assumed to occur continuously
during the interval [0, T ]. The information to be revealed at time T is rep-
resented as a signal ṽ, a random variable which we interpret as the price
at which the asset will trade after the release of information. This informa-
tion is already possessed by a single insider at time zero. The unconditional
distribution of ṽ is assumed to be normal with mean µṽ and variance σṽ2 .
In addition to the insider, there are noise (liquidity) traders, and risk
neutral market makers. The noise traders are unable to correlate their orders
to the insider’s signal ṽ. Thus the noise traders have random, price-inelastic
demands. All orders are market orders and the net order flow is observed by
the market maker. We denote by zt the cumulative orders of noise traders
through time t. The process zt is assumed to be a Brownian motion with
mean zero and variance rate σt2 , i.e., dzt = σt dBt , for a standard Brownian
motion B defined on a probability space (Ω, P ). As Kyle (1985) and Back
(1992) we assume that B is independent of ṽ. We let xt be the cumulative
orders of the informed trader, and define
5
κ is a non-negative constant set by the market maker. Clearly E[ut |Fty ] =
kt yt . The market maker, the insider and the noise traders all know the prob-
ability distribution of ṽ.
We assume that the insider’s market order at time t is of the form
Aside from the first mean zero ’innovation’ term, the equation shows that
yt has the structure of a (generalized) mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
process, oscillating around this mean zero term.
Let us denote by St (β) = E{(ṽ −pt )2 } and by γt (β) = E{(ṽ −mt )2 }. Usu-
ally the assumption is made that limt→T − pt = pT = ṽ a.s. This assumption
seems natural, ensuring that all information available has been incorporated
in the price at the time T of the public release of the information, at which
time a price spread cannot be sustained.
1
The finite variation property of x is assumed by Kyle (1985), and an equilibrium where
this is the case is found by Back (1992).
2
An alternative would be to assume that the market maker is risk averse, which would
lead to a different model.
6
In Aase et. al. (2012a) mt = pt for all t ∈ [0, T ], and it was there
demonstrated that pt → ṽ as t → T − , and St (β) → 0 as t → T − as a
consequence of the insider following his optimal trading strategy. Here we
find it natural to simply assume this, as was done in e.g., Kyle (1985), so that
pt − mt → 0 as t → T − , and both converge to ṽ, since kt → 0 by assumption.
Denote the insider’s wealth by w and the investment in the risk-free asset
by b. The budget constraint of the insider can best be understood by con-
sidering a discrete time setting, of which the continuous-time model is the
limit (in an appropriate sense). At time t the agent submits a market order
xt −xt−1 and the price changes from pt−1 to pt . The order is executed at price
pt , in other words, xt −xt−1 is submitted before pt is set by the market makers.
The investment in the risk-free asset changes by bt −bt−1 = −pt (xt −xt−1 ), i.e.,
buying stocks leads to reduced cash with exactly the same amount. Thus,
the associated change in wealth is
In other words, the accounting identity for the wealth dynamics is of the
same type as in the standard price-taking model, except for one important
difference; while, in the rational expectations model, the number of stocks
in the risky asset at time t depends only on the information available at this
time, so that both the processes x and p are adapted processes with respect
to the same filtration, here the order x depends on information available only
at time T for the market makers (and the noise traders).
As a consequence of (2.5) we obtain the dynamic equation for the insider’
wealth wtI as follows
Z t
I I
(2.6) wt = w0 + xs dps
0
7
Z t
wtI = w0I
+ xt p t − ps dxs
0
Z t Z t
I
= w0 + pt (ṽ − ps )βs ds − ps (ṽ − ps )βs ds
0 0
Z t Z t
I 2
(2.7) = w0 + (ṽ − ps ) βs ds − (ṽ − pt )(ṽ − ps )βs ds.
0 0
When the total initial order y0 > 0, the market maker has to sell to clear
the market and accordingly sets the price p0 a bit higher than he would have
done if he were a fiduciary. Similarly, if y0 < 0 she must buy to clear the
market, so he sets the price p0 a bit lower than he would if he sets the price
fairly. Continuing this practice in every period, he will end up with a positive
expected profit, simply because the profit he would have obtained by being
fair has zero expectation3 .
Consider the situation where the total initial order y0 > 0. Because of the
mean reverting nature of y towards zero, it is more likely that y1 < y0 than
the other way around. By the price setting mechanism used by the market
maker, it is more likely that p1 < p0 than the opposite, in which case the
market maker’s profit is positive. A similar reasoning holds when y0 < 0, in
which case the market maker buys from the other participants at time zero,
and sells the stock in the market at time one at the price p1 he sets then,
based on y1 − y0 . Thus, in expectation the market maker’s profit is positive.
Notice that the market maker takes some ’overnight’ risk, in that, when
he must sell to the other participants at time t, he sets the price pt which he
sells for, and the next day he sets the price pt+1 , based on the order yt+1 − yt ,
3
One may think of trade as ”synthetic” in that only money changes hands, based on
dynamics of the underlying stock.
8
at which he buys in the market the stock that he ’delivered’ the day before.
By the price setting mechanism, more likely than the other way he profits
from this operation. If he were a fiduciary, he would go even in ’the long
run’. Here as a non-fiduciary, in expectation his profit is positive.
By going to the continuous time limit, his wealth at time t is
Z t Z t
M M M
(2.8) wt = w0 − ys dps = w0 − pt yt + ps dys + [p, y]t ,
0 0
where [p, y]t is the quadratic covariance process of p and y. Unlike the cor-
responding expression for the insider, this integral is well-defined in the tra-
ditional interpretation, since pt is Fty -adapted, and so is of course yt .
Finally, the noise traders’ profit is
Z t Z t
N N N
(2.9) wt = w0 + zs dps = w0 + zt pt − ps dzz − [p, z]t .
0 0
Rt
The stochastic integral 0 zs dps is well-defined in the traditional meaning
since zt is FtB -adapted, pt is Fty -adapted and Fty ⊃ FtB , and hence, by
integration by parts, so is the latter stochastic integral in (2.9).
Since yt = xt + zt and x is of bounded variation, [p, y]t = [p, z]t for all t.
Since this is a pure exchange economy, it follows that the sum of the profits
is zero with probability one, or, wtI + wtM + wtN = w0I + w0M + w0N a.s.
9
If we define
Z t
(3.1) ỹt := yt exp( ks βs ds)
0
m0 = E[ṽ],
(β)
where St = St = γt (β) + kt2 V (t), where V (t) = E(yt2 ), and γt (β) solves the
Riccatti equation
βt2 γt2
(3.7) dγt = − ; t≥0
σt2
γ0 = E[(ṽ − E[ṽ])2 ].
10
Thus we have a controlled state process
(ŷt , mt , γt )
11
From this we deduce that
2 hZ t h Z s
2
E ỹt = E 2ys (ṽ − ms )βs exp ku βu du ds
0 0
Z s Z s i
ku βu du dBs + σs2 exp 2
+σs exp ku βu du ds =
0 0
Z t Z s
σs2 exp 2 ku βu du)ds.
0 0
Observe that
Z t Z t Z s
ku βu du E yt2 = σs2
exp 2 exp(2 ku βu du ds
0 0 0
or
Rt
Z t Ru
E yt2 = e−2 0 kr βr dr σu2 e2 kr βr dr
(3.13) 0 du.
0
This expression will be useful below. We use the notation V (t) := E(yt2 ) for
all t ∈ [0, T ]. 4
Moving to the covariances E(yt ys ) for any s > t, we proceed as follows.
Here we use the notation Rt
e(t) := e 0 kr βr dr .
For s > t,
ds (ỹs ỹt ) = (ṽ − ms )βs e(s)ỹt ds + σs e(s)ỹt dBs .
Integrating this from t to s, we get
Z s Z s
E[(ỹs − ỹt )ỹt ] = E[ (ṽ − mr )βr e(r)ỹt dr + σr e(r)ỹt dBr ] =
t t
Z s
E[(ṽ − mr )ỹt ]βr e(r)dr + 0 = 0,
t
4
The theory leading to the result in (3.13) may be linked to a deeper result in filtering
theory. For details, see Appendix 4.
12
since
E[(ṽ − mr )ỹt ] = E[E[(ṽ − mr )ỹt |Fty ] = E[ỹt E[ṽ − mr |Fty ]] = 0.
The latter equality follows from E[(ṽ −mr )|Fty ] = E[E[(ṽ −mr )|Fry |Fty ]] = 0,
since the inner conditional expectation is zero. We obtain for s > t
E[ỹs ỹt ] = E[(ỹs − ỹt )ỹt ] + E[ỹt2 ] = E[ỹt2 ].
Using the definition of ỹ, we have that
Rs
E[ys yt ] = E[yt2 ]e− t kr βr dr
13
and letting E(yt ) := ȳt , where ȳ0 = y0 , by taking expectation in the above
equation we obtain Z t
ȳt = y0 − ks βs ȳs ds
0
or
d
ȳt = −βt kt ȳt
dt
which is an ordinary, linear differential equation in ȳt , with initial condition
ȳ0 = y0 , the unique solution of which is
Rt
E(yt ) = y0 e− 0 ks βs ds
.
In our model y0 = 0, which implies that E(yt ) = 0 for all t ∈ [0, T ]. Thus
E(pt ) = E(mt ) + kt E(yt ) = E(mt ) = E(ṽ) = µṽ , so the price pt has the
correct expectation at all times.
by our assumption that pt → pT = ṽ, his task is to find the trading intensity
βt which maximizes the expected terminal wealth
Z T
I I
(3.15) E[wT ] = w0 + E[(ṽ − mt − kt yt )2 ]βt dt := J I (k, β).
0
Later, when we consider the net profit at any time t ∈ [0, T ], we will use the
notation pI (t, κ) for the insider’s net profit by time t, so that J I (k, β)−w0I :=
pI (T, κ)) with this notation. Similarly for the market maker.
The dilemma for the insider is that an increased trading intensity at some
time t will reveal more information about the value of ṽ to the market makers
and hence induce a price pt closer to ṽ, which in turn implies a reduced insider
information advantage. On the other hand she has to trade in order to make
any profit at all.
First observe that
E (ṽ − mt )yt = E(ṽyt ) − E E(ṽ|Fty )yt = 0
14
since E E(ṽ|Fty )yt = E E(yt ṽ|Fty ) = E(ṽyt ), a result similar to the one
since the cross term vanishes by by the above observation. Using the expres-
sion for V (t) := E(yt2 ) given in (3.13), we obtain the following
Z T Rt
Z t Rs
I
w0I kt2 e−2 ks βs ds
σs2 e2 kr βr dr
(3.17) J (k, β) = + βt γt (β) + 0 0 ds dt.
0 0
The insider will now maximize this expression in the trading intensity
process β, for a given price perturbation process k by the market maker.
Before we address this problem, we want to find the profit of the in-
sider at any time t ∈ [0, T ], which will allow us to observe the relative time
performance of the two profit functions of interest.
Towards this end, let us go back to the expression for the insider’s profit
at time t given in (2.7). Taking expectation in this equation we obtain
Z t Z t
I I 2
E(wt ) = w0 + E(ṽ − ps ) βs ds − E(ṽ − pt )(ṽ − ps ) βs ds =
0 0
Z t Z t
w0I + (γs (β) + kt2 V (s)) βs ds − E(ṽ − mt − kt yt )(ṽ − ms − ks ys ) βs ds,
0 0
where the second term follows from (3.17). Consider the last term. The
integrand can be written
15
Notice that s ≤ t in these computations. The third expectation on the
right-hand side of (3.18) is
where the second equality above follows from a not so standard, but rather
obvious, iterated expectation result (see e.g., Tucker (1967), Th 6, Ch 7),
and again, because E(ṽ − ms |Fsy ) = 0, the result follows.
It remains to compute the first expectation on the right-hand side of
(3.18). It follows from Theorem 3.1 in Aase and Øksendal (2018) that
The last term in (3.18), the covariance, we have already computed in Section
3.1. Since here t ≥ s, we rewrite this formula accordingly, namely as
Z s
−( 0t kr βr dr+ 0s krβr dr)
R R Ru
(3.19) E[yt ys ] = e σu2 e2 0 kr βr dr du, for t ≥ s.
0
This means that the insider’s profit at any time t in [0, T ] is given by
Z t Z t Z t
I I 2
E(wt ) = w0 + (γs (β) + ks Vs )βs ds − γt (β) βs ds − kt ks E(yt ys )ds.
0 0 0
The problem of finding the optimal value of the insider’s trading intensity
βt , and the corresponding expression for the profit fundtion is relegated to
Section 4 below.
16
3.3 The profit of the market maker
The market maker’s expected profit is:
Z T
M
E(wTM ) w0M
J (k, β) := = −E yt dpt =
0
Z T Z T
w0M yt2 dkt =
−E kt yt dyt +
0 0
Z T Z T
w0M yt2 dkt =
−E kt yt (ṽ − mt − kt yt )βt dt +
0 0
Z T Z T
w0M + kt2 (Eyt2 )βt dt + κ Eyt2 dt.
0 0
The third equality follows since m is a martingale, the fourth since Bt is a
Fty -martingale, and the last equality follows since yt is orthogonal to (ṽ −mt ),
and the Fubini theorem. Thus we have that this profit can be written
Z T
M M
ks2 V (s)βs + κV (s) ds.
(3.21) J (k, β) = w0 +
0
Notice that the profit of the market maker at any time t ∈ [0, T ] is simply
Z t
M M
ks2 V (s)βs + κV (s) ds.
(3.22) E(wt ) = w0 +
0
Using the expression (3.13) for Vs = E(ys2 ), we obtain the following ex-
pression for this profit:
Z T Rs
Z s Ru
M
(3.23) J (k, β) = w0M + (ks2 e−2 0 kr βr dr
σu2 e2 0 kr βr dr
du)βs
0 0
Rs
Z s Ru
+ κ(e−2 0 ke βr dr
σu2 e2 0 kr βr dr
du) ds.
0
Consider the latter profit. The last term on the right-hand side increases
without bounds as kt = (T − t)κ increases without bound for any given t,
i.e., as the constant κ → ∞. Surely kt goes to zero as t goes to T , but the
constant κ can in principle be set arbitrarily large by the market maker, since
she simply decides the value of this constant once and for all. Also we know
17
that βt decreases with κ, but this effect more or less cancels out since the
two exponentials where β enters are of different signs. R
T
Likewise, the second term on the right-hand side, 0 kt2 (Eyt2 )βt dt, also
possesses this property, despite the fact that here β enters linearly (in addi-
tion to its exponential dependence).
This is illustrated numerically in Figure 2. The base case parameters
are the same as in Figure 1, where the horizon is T = 10. (Again we have
anticipated a bit, and used the optimal values of the function βt appearing
is Section 4 below.)
Using the notation for the net profit of the market maker
Z t Z s
2 −2 0s kr βr dr
R Ru
pM (t, κ) := (ks e σu2 e2 0 kr βr dr du)βs
0 0
Z s
−2 0s ke βr dr
R Ru
+ κ(e σu2 e2 0 kr βr dr du) ds.
0
at the intermediate time t ≤ T , the upper graph is the net, terminal profit
pM (T, κ) as a function of κ, while the the lower graph shows the net profit
pM (t, κ) accumulated at the intermediate time t = 2 as a function of κ.
18
As the market maker obtains more information from the order flow, she
lets this information be reflected in the price pt . The introduction of trading
fees reduces the informational contents of the true value of the asset in the
price. The market maker may be assumed to set κ to the maximum value
allowed by the regulator, or alternatively, by her own conscience, supposing
she practices restraint in order to keep the markets open, whichever gives
the smallest value of κ. It is in the interests of the market maker that the
market does not break down, in which case she does not make any profits at
all, and may also face legal issues. It is, after all, the market maker’s task to
operate such that the markets function.
The problem of relating the parameter κ to observables in the market is
treated in Section 5 below.
Since this is a pure exchange economy, the profit of the noise traders is
given by
J N (k, β) = w0I + w0M + w0N − J I (k, β) − J M (k, β).
They will loose in this market.
since the function kt is of bounded variation. From filtering theory (see e.g.,
Kalman (1960), Davis (1977-84), Kallianpur (1980) or Øksendal (2003), Ch
6) we know that the corresponding conditional expected value mt = E(ṽ|Fty )
is given by
βt γt (β)
dmt = dyt .
σt2
Furthermore the square error function γt (β) = E(ṽ−mt )2 satisfies the Ricatti
equation
d β2
γt (β) = − t2 γt2 (β),
dt σt
19
which has the solution
σṽ2
(4.1) γt (β) = 2 t
R ,
1 + σṽ 0
β̃s2 ds
where β̃t := σβtt . Here γ0 = E(ṽ − Eṽ)2 = σṽ2 . Accordingly, the insider’s
problem is to solve the following
Z T Z t
σṽ2 βt 2 −2 0t ks βs ds
R
2 2 0s kr βr dr
R
(4.2) supβ t 2
+ βt k t e σ s e ds dt.
1 + σṽ2 0 βσs2 ds
R
0 0
s
20
When σt = σ for all t ∈ [0, T ], where σ is a positive constant, this finally
reduces to the Kyle (1985)-solution.
21
E(pt − E(ṽ))2 . It is closely connected to the mean square deviation
This latter quantity, or its square root, we assume can be observed by the
regulator, who will then compare this to the corresponding term γt (β 0 ) based
on no price distortions by the market maker.
Recall the following definitions. St (β) = E(ṽ − pt )2 and γt (β 0 ) = E(ṽ −
mt )2 where mt = E(ṽ|Fty ). The function γt (β 0 ) corresponds to the expected
square deviation between the true value of the asset and the fiducial price
mt , provided the trading intensity βt0 is used in the computation of the latter
quantity. St is the expected square deviation between the true value of the
asset and the actual price that the market maker sets, in the case where
she trades fees, as explained. Naturally, St (β) is larger than γt (β 0 ), and
increasingly so as the market maker’s decision variable κ increases.
This leads us to introduce the following quantity in relative terms (rv =
relative volatility)
p
St (β)
(5.1) rv(t, κ) := p , t ∈ [0, T ], κ ≥ 0.
γt (β 0 )
σṽ2
γt (β 0 ) = R t ,
1 + σṽ2 0 (β̃s0 )2 ds
β0
where β̃t0 := σtt , and γ0 = E(ṽ − Eṽ)2 = σṽ2 . Using these relations, rv(t, κ)
can be written
21
kt2 −2 R t ks βs ds t 2 2 R s kr βr dr
Z
γt (β)
(5.2) rv(t, κ) = + e 0 σs e 0 ds .
γt (β 0 ) γt (β 0 ) 0
22
When κ = 0 we see from this expression that rv(t, 0) ≡ 1.
Here rv will give information about the degree to which the market maker
trades fees. When κ = 0, the function rv(t, 0) is constant through time and
identically equal to 1 as noticed. As κ increases from zero, rv(t, κ) will
rise above 1, and indicate the percent-wise increase from the situation with
fiducial trade, at every t ∈ [0, T ].
For example, when rv(t, κ) = 1.20, for some t and κ, the actions of the
market maker has increased the volatility of the asset by 20% relative to
the situation with fiducial price setting, where κ = 0. Thus the quantity rv
seems like a reasonable measure of the degree of fee trading, in the hands of
a regulator.
In this situation the map from κ to rv, and in particular its inverse
mapping, will serve as a guide for acceptable values of κ, given a certain
level of rv set by the regulator. This inverse mapping is illustrated in Section
7.5 below6 . The market maker can, on the other hand, use this mapping to
exercise restraint in setting κ in order to keep markets open.
var(ṽ|pt )
ι(t, κ) := 1 − .
var(ṽ)
When the price carries no private information about the true value of the
asset at some time t and some level of distortion κ, the conditional variance
equals the unconditional variance, and consequently ι(t, κ) = 0 at this point
(t, κ). When the price equals the value of the asset, the conditional variance
equals 0 and ι = 1 at this point, in which case all the private information
is reflected in the price. Consequently 0 ≤ ι(t, κ) ≤ 1 for all time points
t ∈ [0, T ] and for all κ ≥ 0.
Because of the joint normal assumption,
23
where ρṽ,pt is the correlation coefficient between ṽ and pt . Consequently
ι(t, κ) = ρ2ṽ,pt for all (t, κ).
In order to find this measure of price informativeness, we need to com-
pute the quantities cov(ṽ, pt ) and var(pt ). To this end, we first consider the
covariance. Since pt = mt + kt yt ,
βt γt (β)σyt
ρmt ,yt = ,
σt2 σmt
p
were ρmt ,yt p
is the correlation
p coefficient between mt and yt , σyt := V (t)
and σmt := var(mt ) = σṽ2 − γt (β).
We have then shown that
q p
2
cov(ṽ, pt ) = σṽ − γt (β) + kt ρmt ,yt σṽ2 − γt (β) V (t),
24
where we have formulas for all the terms on the right-hand side of this equa-
tion.
It remains to find the variance of pt . Again, from pt = mt + kt yt it follows
that
25
about the true value of the asset becomes available with p time, hence the
increase in the corresponding correlation coefficient ρṽ,mt = cov(ṽ, mt )/σṽ .
At the same time this shows that γt (β) decreases slowly with time, again for
the same reason: One knows more about the true value as time increases, and
the present measure of uncertainty (the mean square error) then naturally
decreases.
Finally, we illustrate the time development of the variance of the price pt
and of the ’fair’ price mt . The latter one has just been explained. For the
former two different effects are in force: One is that V (t) increases with time
(see Section 7.3 below) and what has just been shown, that cov(ṽ, mt ) also
increases with time. The other is that kt decreases with time, see the expres-
sion (6.1) for the var(pt ). In our example the first effect weakly dominates.
Cont. model:
t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
ρmt ,yt (t, κ) .96 .92 .87 .84 .81 .79 .78 .79 .83 1.00
ρṽ,pt (t, κ) .31 .44 .53 .61 .67 .73 .79 .84 .91 .99
var(pt ) .02 .04 .05 .06 .07 .07 .08 .08 .08 .09
var(mt ) .009 .02 .03 .03 .04 .05 .06 .06 .07 .09
ι(t, κ) .10 .19 .28 .37 .45 .54 .62 .71 .83 1.00
26
As a first step we suggest to use a trial solution, βt0 say, on the right-hand
side of this equation, and then find the first approximation, βt1 , given by the
left hand side as a function of this initial solution. A reasonable candidate
for the trial solution is of course the solution when κ = 0, which we have
in closed form (see (4.5)). Next one continues this procedure, where β1 (t)
becomes the new trial solution in the next step, and so on until convergence.
This, of course, requires the right numerical tools.
27
Fig. 4: The insider’s trading intensities as functions of κ.
In Figure 4 we present two graphs of β(t, κ) in the present continuous
model as a function of κ for given t, for two different points in time: t =
5 and t = 9, where the upper curve is for t = 9. These are also seen to be
decreasing. Unlike for the one-period model, these graphs are concave for
small values of κ and then becomes convex as κ increases. That these graphs
are decreasing in κ is in accordance with the results from the one period
model: The insider trades more softly the more the market maker perturbs
the price.
28
beginning, and then flattens out at around t = 3 when κ = 0.24. It is well
known from empirical studies that the volatility of the price increases as more
relevant information enters the market, since this causes trade to increase.
A reasonable model of insider trading should reflect this, and for our model
this is illustrated in Figure 5.
However, note that these variances decrease with κ for any given point t
in time. This is illustrated in Figure 6 for t = 1, 5, 9 as κ run from 0 to 0.5.
The more the market maker trades fees, the less the insider trades and the
lower the variance of the order flow yt .
8
The profit function of the insider is computed at discrete times only, due to the large
number of computations required for a continuous plot.
29
Fig. 7: The two net profits as functions of time. κ = 0.045.
In Figure 8 however, where κ = 0.07, the market maker’s profit is seen to
dominate from the start, and also ends up highest at the final time T = 10.
When the market maker further increases κ, her profit function will increase
for each value of t, while the profit of the insider will decrease for each t
compared to the levels in Figure 8, (but will still be an increasing function
of t for each given value of κ, as in the figures 7 and 8). As a consequence,
the market maker outperforms the perfectly well informed insider from about
κ = 0.06 onwards.
30
Fig. 9: rv(t, κ) as a function of κ when t = 0.01, 3.6 and 9.0.
The lowest curve in Figure 9 corresponds to t = 0.01, the next lowest to
t = 9.0 and the highest curve to t = 3.6. To interpret this figure, imagine
that the regulator uses the rule that rv should correspond to less than 15%
increase from the fiduciary, ideal situation. This means that the market
maker should not increase κ beyond 0.07, at least based on the the three
time points in this illustration.
Since this line of reasoning is valid only for some particular values of t,
in the next figure we study rv’s time development:
31
Fig. 11: rv(t, κ) as a function of t when κ = 0.09.
Figure 11 illustrates the same time picture of rv(t, κ) as in the previous
figure, but now for κ = 0.09. With a 15%-regulation rule still in charge, the
market would then be shut down and the stock suspended at around t = 1.2,
but allowed to reopen at around t = 6.5, and then kept open for the rest of
the period. Accordingly, the market maker would be wise to consider a lower
value of κ to keep her reputation as a decent professional.
On the other hand, if the regulator used a 21%-rule, the market would
stay open all the time for κ = 0.09.
The manner in which we find the inverse map from rv to κ is seen to
proceed as follows: For a given value of rv ∗ , say rv ∗ = 1.15, we solve in t and
κ the following inequality: supκ (supt rv(t, κ)) ≤ d∗ . Then the ’optimal’ value
of κ, call it κ∗ , is the one which satisfies this inequality with equality sign:
supt rv(t, κ∗ ) = d∗ . In Table 2 we illustrate this connection for some values
of rv ∗ .
Cont. model: t = 9
rv ∗ 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.15 1.21
κ∗ .025 .035 .045 .070 .090
pM (9, κ∗ ) .037 .049 .060 .087 .100
pI (9, κ∗ ) .126 .118 .100 .055 .045
ι(9, κ∗ ) .88 .83 .64 .45 .30
In Table 2 the insider has the highest net profits, denoted pI (t, κ), for
lower values of rv ∗ , and this profit is decreasing with k ∗ . For larger values
of rv ∗ , the market maker’s profit is the largest of the two. The last row in
Table 2 illustrates the informativeness ι(t, κ) in the market as a function of κ
32
when t = 9. It decreases as κ increases. Distorting prices is not informative
to the other market participants.
In the above illustrations in the last two figures (figures 10 and 11) it
is the market maker who has the highest profits of the two parties. This
highlights one of the the main ideas in this paper: In real life we know that
market makers actually do not set prices in an entirely fiduciary manner,
but rather determine prices in such a way that they make money. In the
introduction we explained why this behavior is possible and likely to take
place. This is in line with observed behavior in several financial markets, in
particular those of the over-the-counter type that we have in mind.
For a modest fee conditional on the order flow, the market maker is able to
obtain a profit of the order of the magnitude, or even better than, a perfectly
informed insider, showing, among other things, the advantage of observing
the order flow. This, we conjecture, may be one explanation why so much
money tends to end up in the financial sector of the economy.
33
the price perturbation parameter allowing the market maker to make higher
profits. Thus it pays for him to share his private information with the insider,
but the noise traders are then even worse off. This analysis also throws some
new light on one ’positive’ side of insider trading (aside from the obvious
negative aspects which we do not dwell on here); all information arriving to
the market generally has a positive effect on efficiency.
In particular, price volatility is shown to increase with informed mar-
ket maker in the one period model. This is an important aspect of the
effect of privileged information on security prices, which may explain the
price/dividend puzzle, a feature that should be extend to the multiperiod
model (the world is, after all, time continuous).
9 Conclusions
The dynamic auction model of Kyle (1985) is studied, allowing market mak-
ers to maximize profit within regulatory limits by charging time varying,
stochastic fees. This has several implications for the equilibrium, the most
important being that by perturbing the price by a relatively modest amount,
the market maker is able to obtain a profit of the order of magnitude, and
even higher than, a perfectly informed insider.
The dynamic aspects of this are analyzed in the paper, and illustrated
numerically by examples. The analytical challenge turned out to be the
determination of the optimal trading intensity of the insider, when the market
maker perturbs the price. The solution was presented in Theorem 1 in Section
4. Based on this result, we were able to discuss a wide variety of problems,
like finding the profits of the two parties, the insider and the market maker,
the stochastic properties of the order flow, and the informativeness in the
market, all quantities as a functions of time and price perturbations. We also
indicated how a regulator can monitor the market by observing a measure
of relative price volatility, which compares to the corresponding measure
with fiducial price setting. This gives a convenient connection between price
volatility and price perturbation.
Our analysis indicates why speculative prices are more volatile than pre-
dicted by fundamentals.
34
10 Appendix 1.
Proof of Theorem 1 by Variational Calcu-
lus.
We now want to solve problem (4.2) by use of directional derivatives, or cal-
culus of variations. Towards this end, let A be the family of all continuously
differentiable functions β : [0, T ] → R such that
Z t 2
βs
2
ds < ∞ for all t < T.
0 σs
Z T Z T βt
(10.1) γt (β) − 2 γs2 (β)βs ds 2 ξt dt+
0 t σt
Z T Rt
Z t Rs
kt2 e−2 0 ks βs ds σs2 e2 0 kr βr dr ds ξt dt+
0 0
Z T Rt
Z t Z t Rr
2 −2 0 kr βr dr
βt kt e (−2 ks ξs ds) σr2 e2 0 ku βu du dr)dt+
0 0 0
Z T Rt
Z t Rs
Z s
βt kt2 e−2 0 kr βr dr σs2 e2 0 kr βr dr (2 kr ξr dr)ds)dt = 0, ∀ξ ∈ A.
0 0 0
The second line on the left-hand side of (10.1) follows just as in Aase et. al
(2012c), which presents a simple proof of the case k = 0.
35
Consider the last two lines, and start with the third integral in (10.1).
By changing the order of integration between s and t, we obtain
Z T Z t Z t
2 −2 0t kr βr dr
R Rr
βt kt e (−2 ks ξs ds) σr2 e2 0 ku βu du dr)dt =
0 0 0
Z T Z T Rt
Z t Rr
βt kt2 e−2 kr βr dr
( σr2 e2 0 ku βu du dr)dt ks ξs ds =
−2 0
0 s 0
Z T Z T Rs
Z s Rr
βs ks2 e−2 kr βr dr
σr2 e2 ku βu du
−2 0 ( 0 dr)ds kt ξt dt.
0 t 0
Next consider the fourth and last integral in (10.1). The inner integral given
by Z Z t Rs s
σs2 e2 0 kr βr dr
(2 kr ξr dr)ds)dt,
0 0
can be rewritten as
Z t Z t Rr
2 ( σr2 e2 0 ku βu du
dr)ks ξs ds.
0 s
Putting all this together, the first order condition now takes the form
d I
(10.2) 0 = J (k, β + xξ)|x=0 =
dx
Z T Z T Z t
βt 2 −2 0t ks βs ds
R Rt
γt (β) − 2( 2
γs (β) βs ds) + kt e σs2 e−2 0 kr βr dr ds
0 t σt 0
Z T Rs
Z s Rr
− 2kt βs ks2 e−2 0 kr βr dr ( σr2 e2 0 ku βu du dr)ds
t 0
Z T Rt
Z s
2 2 0r ku βu du
R
2 −2 0 ku βu du
+ 2kt βs ks e ( σr e dr)ds ξt dt, ∀ξ ∈ A.
t t
36
Thus we conclude that
βt T
Z Z t
2 −2 0t ks βs ds
R Rt
(10.3) γt (β) = 2 2
γs (β) βs ds + kt e σs2 e−2 0 kr βr dr ds
σt t 0
Z T Rs
Z s Rr
− 2kt βs ks2 e−2 0 kr βr dr ( σr2 e2 0 ku βu du dr)ds
t 0
Z T Z s
2 −2 0t ku βu du
R Rr
+ 2kt βs ks e ( σr2 e2 0 ku βu du dr)ds.
t t
Accordingly
t
σt2 Rt
Z Rt
(10.4) βt = RT γt (β) − kt2 e−2 0 ks βs ds
σs2 e−2 0 kr βr dr
ds
2 t
γs (β)2 β s ds 0
Z T Rs
Z t
2 2 0r ku βu du
R
− 2kt βs ks2 e−2 0 kr βr dr
( σr e dr)ds .
t 0
T
σt2 Z Rs
(10.5) βt = RT γt (β) − V (t) kt2 + 2kt βs ks2 e−2 t kr βr dr
ds .
2 t
γs (β)2 βs ds t
11 Appendix 2.
Optimization via Pontryagin and Nash.
We start from the system expressed in terms of (yt , mt , γt ) in (3.8)-(3.10),
which are
(11.1) dyt = (ṽ − mt − kt yt )βt dt + σt dBt ; y0 = 0
γt βt
(11.2) dmt = 2 [(ṽ − mt )βt dt + σt dBt ]; m0 = E[v]
σt
β 2γ 2
(11.3) dγt = − t 2 t ; γ0 = E[(ṽ − E[ṽ])2 ].
σt
37
The performance functionals are
Z T Z T
M M
(11.4) J (k, β) := w0 + E( kt yt (kt yt + mt − ṽ)βt dt − yt2 dkt )
0 0
Z T
(11.5) J I (k, β) := w0I + E[(ṽ − ms − ks ys )2 ]βs ds.
0
Problem 11.1. We want to find a Nash equilibrium (kt∗ , βt∗ ) for the the two
performance functionals J M , J I . In other words, we want to find (determin-
istic) control processes kt∗ , βt∗ such that
(11.6) sup J M (kt , βt∗ ) = J M (kt∗ , βt∗ )
kt
and
(11.7) sup J I (kt∗ , βt ) = J I (kt∗ , βt∗ ).
βt
38
and
are
M 2 2
dp1 (t) = [κ(T − t)βt (v − mt − 2κ(T − t)yt ) − κ (T − t) yt βt +
2κyt + κ(T − t)βt pM M
1 (t)]dt + q1 (t)dBt ; 0≤t≤T
M
p1 (T ) = 0
γt βt2 M
(
dpM M
2 (t) = −[−κ(T − t)yt βt − βt p1 (t) − σt2 2
p (t)]dt + q2M (t)dBt ; 0 ≤ t ≤ T
pM
2 (T ) =0
pM
3 (T ) =0
γt βt2 I
I I
dp2 (t) = −[2(v − mt − κ(T − t)yt )(−βt ) − βt p1 (t) −
σt2 2
p (t)]dt
+q2I (t)dBt ; 0 ≤ t ≤ T
I
p2 (T ) = 0
2βt2 γt I
(
βt I
dpI3 (t) = −[ v−m
σ2
t 2 I
βt p2 (t) + q (t)
σt 2
− σt2
p3 (t)]dt + q3I (t)dBt ; 0 ≤ t ≤ T
t
pI3 (T ) =0
39
According to the maximum principle for stochastic differential games (see
e.g. [20] , Theorem 2.1 and Theorem 2.3) the problem of finding a Nash equi-
librium for the two performances J M (κ, β), J I (κ, β) can (under some condi-
tions) be reduced to finding a Nash equilibrium for the two Hamiltonians
H M , H I . Thus we proceed to maximize H M (κ, β) with respect to κ for each
given β, and then to maximize H I (κ, β) with respecty to β for each κ:
For each t the map
(11.13)
γt
(v − mt − κ(T − t)yt )2 + (v − mt − κ(T − t)yt )pI1 (t) + q (t)
σt 2
σt2
β = β̂(t) = −
2[γt (v − mt )pI2 (t) − γt2 p3 (t)]
(11.14)
γt∗ I ∗
∗
(v − m∗t − κ∗ (T − t)yt∗ )2 + (v − m∗t − κ∗ (T − t)yt∗ )(pI1 )∗ (t) + (q ) (t)
σt 2
β (t) = γ2 γt∗
2[ σt2 (pI3 )∗ (t) − σt2
(v − m∗t )(pI2 )∗ (t)]
t
where yt∗ , m∗t , γt∗ , (pI1 )∗ (t), (pI2 )∗ (t), (pI3 )∗ (t), (q2I )∗ (t) are the system values cor-
responding to the controls κ∗ , β ∗ .
40
12 Appendix 3.
The Bellman approach.
It may be instructive to see what the dynamic programming approach gives
in the present situation. In particular, this may throw some light on the
interpretations of the adjoint variables in Theorem 3.2. In doing so, we take
into account our previous remarks made just prior to equation (2.4) in Section
2.2, which tells us to focus on the insider’s profit only, since the market maker
does not act strategically, he only trades ’fees’.
Let us for short use the notation xt = (yt , mt , γt ) for the system. The
performance functional is given in (3.5), and the maximal profit of the insider
is
hZ T 2
I I
(12.1) J (x) = w0 + supβ E ṽ − ms − ks ys βs ds .
0
With J I (x, t) equal to the optimal wealth remaining at time t in state x, the
Bellman equation can be written
n o
(12.2) supβ (v − mt − kt yt )2 βt + Lβ (J I (x, t)) = 0,
where
(12.3)
β I ∂J I (x, t) ∂J I (x, t) γt βt ∂J I (x, t)
L (J (x, t)) = +(v−mt −kt yt )βt + 2 (v−mt )βt
∂t ∂y σt ∂m
2 2 I 2 I 2 I 2 I
β γ ∂J (x, t) ∂ J (x, t) ∂ J (x, t) ∂ J (x, t)
− t 2t + σt 2
+ σt 2
+ 2σt .
σt ∂γ ∂y ∂m ∂y∂m
Let us first address the maximization problem in (12.2). The first order
condition in βt can be written
∂J I (x, t) γt ∂J I (x, t)
(v − mt − kt yt )2 + (v − mt − kt yt ) + 2βt 2 (v − mt )
∂y σt ∂m
γt2 ∂J I (x, t)
−2βt = 0.
σt2 ∂γ
41
This gives the optimal βt∗ in terms of the function J I (x, t) (i.e., its partial
derivatives) as follows
I
(v − mt − κ(T − t)yt )2 + (v − mt − κ(T − t)yt ) ∂J ∂y(x,t)
(12.4) βt∗ = γ2 I I
.
2[ σt2 ∂J ∂γ(x,t) − γt
σt2
(v − mt ) ∂J∂m
(x,t)
]
t
13 Appendix 4.
A connection to filtering theory.
The results of Section 3.1 can alternatively be derived using filter theory
as follows: We first consider the process y for k = 0. Then dyt = (ṽ −
42
E(ṽ|Fty )βt + σt dBt . From filtering theory (see Allinger and Mitter (1981))
we then know that y generates the same filtration as ŷ, i.e., Ftŷ = Fty , and
that ỹ defined by dỹt := σ1t dyt := dbt is a Brownian motion with respect to
the information filtration Fty . 9
Employing this result to our situation when k 6= 0, , we obtain that
1
{dyt + kt βt yt dt} := dbt
σt
for an Fty -Brownian motion bt . We may express the total order process y as
follows
dyt = −kt βt yt dt + σt dbt .
We now employ standard results for Gaussian processes to find µt := E(yt )
and V (t) := E(yt2 ) for all t ∈ [0, T ]. Using Karatzas and Schreeve (1985), we
have that µ(t) = E(yt ) = 0 for all t provided y0 = 0, and the following first
order non-homogeneous ordinary linear differential equation for the variance
V (t) = E(yt2 ),
dV (t)
= −2kt βt V (t) + σt2 , V (0) = 0
dt
which has the solution
Z t
−2 0t ks βs ds
R Rs
2
(13.1) V (t) = E(yt ) = e σs2 e2 0 kr βr dr ds.
0
This is (3.13).
Acknowledgments
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