Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453

DOI 10.1007/s11367-011-0275-9

CONSEQUENTIAL LCA

Consequential life cycle assessment: a review

J. Mason Earles & Anthony Halog

Received: 9 November 2009 / Accepted: 9 March 2011 / Published online: 30 March 2011
# Springer-Verlag 2011

Abstract 1 Introduction
Purpose Over the past two decades, consequential life cycle
assessment (CLCA) has emerged as a modeling approach for Over the past two decades, consequential life cycle
capturing environmental impacts of product systems beyond assessment (CLCA) has emerged as a tool for capturing
physical relationships accounted for in attributional LCA environmental impacts of product systems that go beyond
(ALCA). Put simply, CLCA represents the convergence of physical relationships accounted for in attributional, or
LCA and economic modeling approaches. conventional, LCA (ALCA). Put simply, CLCA represents
Method In this study, a systematic literature review of the convergence of LCA and economic modeling methods.
CLCA is performed. For over a century, economists have sought to develop a
Results While initial efforts to integrate the two modeling method to quantify the impacts of economic relationships—
methods relied on simple partial equilibrium (PE) modeling such as substitution effects, economies of scale, and
and a heuristic approach to determining affected technologies, elasticities of supply and demand, among others (Marshall
more recent techniques incorporate sophisticated economic 1920). CLCA has connected many economic phenomena
models for this purpose. In the last 3 years, Multi-Market, with life cycle environmental modeling of product and
Multi-Regional PE Models and Computable General Equi- technological systems. While CLCA began with the use of
librium models have been used. Moreover, the incorporation simple economic models (see Ekvall 2000), increasingly
of other economic notions into CLCA, such as rebound effects sophisticated techniques have been adopted (see US EPA
and experience curves, has been the focus of later research. 2010). Since economic modeling can play a prominent role
Since economic modeling can play a prominent role in in national policy-making and strategic environmental
national policy-making and strategic/corporate environmental planning, developing the capacity to operate LCA concur-
planning, developing the capacity to operate LCA concurrent rent to, or integrated with, these economic models is of
to, or integrated with, these models is of growing importance. growing importance. This paper outlines the historical
Conclusions This paper outlines the historical development development of such efforts in CLCA, discusses key
of such efforts in CLCA, discusses key methodological methodological advancements, and characterizes previous
advancements, and characterizes previous literature on the literature on the topic. Based on this review, we provide an
topic. Based on this review, we provide an outlook for outlook for further research in CLCA.
further research in CLCA.

Keywords Experience curves . CLCA . Partial equilibrium 2 Historical and methodological development of LCA
modeling . Computable general equilibrium modeling .
Consequential life cycle assessment . Rebound effects LCA studies can be categorized into two general types:
attributional and consequential. ALCA methodology
J. M. Earles (*) : A. Halog accounts for immediate physical flows (i.e., resources,
University of Maine,
material, energy, and emissions) involved across the life
5755 Nutting Hall,
Orono, ME 04469, USA cycle of a product. ALCA typically utilizes average data for
e-mail: [email protected] each unit process within the life cycle. CLCA, on the other
446 Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453

hand, aims to describe how physical flows can change as a however, Tillman et al. (1998) left a key question
consequence of an increase or decrease in demand for the unanswered: How does one systematically identify which
product system under study. Unlike ALCA, CLCA includes technologies or processes will be affected?
unit processes inside and outside of the product's immediate In response to this issue, Weidema et al. (1999)
system boundaries. It utilizes economic data to measure presented a step-wise approach for identifying affected
physical flows of indirectly affected processes. Moreover, technologies.5 More specifically, in this procedure five
allocation is avoided in CLCA by expanding the system questions drive the identification of affected technologies:
boundary (Weidema 2003).
1. What time horizon does the study apply to?
The origins of CLCA first appeared as a discussion in
2. Does the change only affect specific processes or a
Weidema (1993), which broadly outlined the need to
market?
consider market information in life cycle inventory (LCI)
3. What is the trend in the volume of the affected market?
data. The author argued that when the purpose of
4. Is there potential to provide an increase or reduction in
performing an LCA is comparative, the actual environmen-
production capacity?
tal impacts are most realistically modeled by using
5. Is the technology the most/least preferred?
environmental data on the affected technology.1 According
to Weidema (1993), in contrast to the accounting type, or The first question differentiates short-term and long-term
“retrospective” LCA, comparative LCA2 aims to study time horizons, in which changes take place within existing
possible future changes between alternative product sys- production capacity or require additional capital investment
tems. Affected technology was described as the technology (i.e., installing new machinery, etc.), respectively. Assum-
most likely to be affected by such future changes.3 For ing a long-term time horizon, the second question identifies
example, while most Norwegian electricity is produced via whether an affected technology exists as a foreground or
hydropower plants, a small (or marginal) increase in background process. A foreground process should be
electricity demand will likely result in an increase in modeled using site-specific data and is the affected
fossil-based electricity production. This is due to capacity technology. A background process, on the other hand,
constraints on hydropower production and the relatively exists at the market level and requires further examination
unconstrained and cheaper cost per kilowatt-hour of fossil- via step three. The third step differentiates between
based electricity production. increasing and decreasing market trends. If market volume
In a study of municipal wastewater systems, Tillman et is generally decreasing, the affected technology will likely
al. (1998) performed a comparative LCA study utilizing be an older, non-competitive (least preferred) technology. If
system boundary expansion4—an important aspect of market volume is generally increasing, the affected tech-
CLCA. Tillman et al.’s (1998) method arose from the need nology will likely be a more modern and competitive (most
to evaluate the environmental consequences of changing preferred technology) technology. The fourth question
wastewater treatment systems in two Swedish villages helps to determine if the technology under examination
among several systems under consideration. Employing could provide the required increase or reduction in
the technique of system boundary expansion, they only production capacity. This step aims to eliminate constrained
modeled flows that would be affected by a change in technologies which cannot easily change capacity in
wastewater treatment systems. For example, wastewater response to a change in demand (hydropower in the
inflow constituents (i.e., food, dirt, detergents, etc.) were example above). Finally, if the technology is unconstrained,
expected to be the same among all systems; and as a result it is necessary to select that which is preferred among those
were not modeled. Electricity produced from wastewater which remain. The most preferred technology will either be
inflow constituents (via biogas), on the other hand, was that which is most likely to be installed or phased out
included as it did not exist in the current system. By depending on market volume trends.
expanding the system boundary credits were then added to Weidema et al. (1999) and Weidema (2003) provide
the wastewater system in response to the reduced need for many examples of how the step-wise procedure can be
electricity production of an equal utility. In doing this, applied across various markets, including agricultural,
minerals/metals, forest-based, and plastics. The application
1 of this procedure generally uses statistical databases (e.g.,
Affected technology was originally referred to as marginal technol-
ogy in Weidema’s earlier papers (e.g., Weidema et al. 1999)
2
Comparative LCA would later be referred to as CLCA.
3
Another definition forwarded by Weidema et al. (1999) for affected
5
technology is the technology that changes its capacity/production in At the time of publication, Weidema et al. (1999) referred to affected
response to changes in demand. technologies as marginal technologies, but has more recently
4
System boundary expansion was originally put forth by Tillman et recommended that the term affected technologies be used to avoid
al. (1991) and Vigon et al. (1993). confusion.
Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453 447

EuroStat6 or FAOStat7) to determine market trends (step 3 open-loop recycling to demonstrate how price elasticity of
above). Constraints on technology are specific to the market supply and demand can inform consequential LCA studies.
under examination and can be physical (e.g., land area in Given an increase in demand for old corrugated cardboard
the case of agricultural production), technological (e.g., (OCC) to recycle, he wanted to know how much of this
fermentation yields for ethanol production), economical additional OCC supply will replace virgin pulp material and
(e.g., high cost to install additional capacity for nuclear how much will replace OCC from other locations. Price
power), or political (e.g., national emission caps on air elasticity of demand quantifies the percent change in
pollutants). As a result, constraints can be determined demand for each percent change in price. For example,
from many possible data sources. With respect to one statistical estimate suggests that if the price of OCC
identifying the affected technology among unconstrained decreases by 1% then the quantity supplied decreases by
ones, primary data (e.g., collected directly from pro- 0.2% (Palmer et al. 1997). Similarly, they estimate that if
ducers/manufacturers) or secondary data sources are used the price of OCC decreases by 1%, the quantity demanded
to determine production costs. In the case of decreasing increases by 0.12%. The respective price elasticities of
market trends, the highest costing technology per unit supply and demand are 0.2 and −0.12.9 Thus, given a
output will likely be affected via elimination. For an change in the amount of OCC collected for recycling, and
increasing market trend, the lowest costing technology knowing the price elasticities of supply and demand for
per unit output will likely be affected via expansion. OCC, Ekvall (2000) estimated the percentage of OCC
In 2000, Bouman et al. began to investigate the which will likely replace virgin pulp and/or OCC from
similarities and differences between LCA and an economic other locations. Environmentally, indirect impacts can occur
technique called partial equilibrium (PE) modeling. PE by reducing the amount of virgin material produced and by
models are typically used to analyze the possible effects of increasing the amount of OCC from other locations to be
a policy on a market or set of markets (Francois and Hall landfilled.
1997). Such models determine an equilibrium position While Bouman et al. (2000) suggested that PE and LCA
among one or more markets by maximizing net social models might best be used simultaneously and separately,
payoff.8 PE modeling permits the investigation of substi- Ekvall (2002) argued for the integration of PE models at
tutable and complementary goods as they relate to a change first by softlinking and eventually through hardlinking.10
in price. They can be relatively small and simplified, or Ekvall (2002) asserted that linking PE models could
large models which incorporate hundreds of goods across provide a technique for better modeling the consequences
multiple sectors. For instance, Bouman et al. (2000) of change, especially indirect impacts, in LCA. Ekvall and
construct a simple PE model which examines the Andrae (2006) developed a simple, softlinked PE and LCA
effectiveness of several tax instruments on reducing the model to explore the impacts of a ban of lead solder in the
amount of mined, landfilled, and emitted lead from electronics industry. Since this study, other studies have
batteries. The Food and Agricultural Sector Optimization applied a similar technique in the context of agricultural,
Model (FASOM), on the other hand, is a large PE model energy, and real estate sectors. These studies are discussed
that includes hundreds of agricultural, forestry, and in the following section of this paper.
biofuel commodities, across 11 global market regions Larger, existing MMMR-PE models have also been used
(Adams et al. 2005). These larger types of PE models can to estimate life cycle impacts from indirect land-use change
be categorized as Multi-Market, Multi-Region Partial (ILUC) resulting from increased demand for biofuels. ILUC
Equilibrium Models (Roningen 1997), or MMMR-PE impacts can result, for instance, when additional biofuel
models. demand increases the amount of land dedicated to corn
Borrowing the microeconomic concept of price elasticity production (Searchinger et al. 2008). This increased
of supply and demand, Ekvall (2000) developed a quanti- demand can result in the plowing of forest or grasslands
tative technique for estimating indirect impacts in LCA releasing longer-term carbon stored in the soil. Alternatively,
using a simple two good PE model. The term indirect farmers can divert existing crops or croplands to biofuel
impact was introduced by Ekvall (2000) to denote production. As a result, prices for the crop rise, leading
environmental consequences that are outside of the physical to land conversion internationally to meet additional
supply chain, which instead result from market forces (e.g., demand. Searchinger et al. (2008) utilized a Food and
product substitution). Ekvall (2000) used the context of
6 9
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/ Based on the laws of supply and demand, price elasticities of supply
search_database and demand are positive and negative, respectively.
7 10
http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx Ekvall (2002) states that softlinking manually feeds the results of
8
Net social payoff is defined as the sum of consumer and producer one model into the other, while hardlinking combines two types of
surplus (Francois and Hall 1997). models into a single model
448 Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453

Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) PE model11 to shifting the speed limit on a popular highway from 100 to
estimate ILUC impacts with respect to greenhouse gases 130 kph could result in people travelling longer distances—
(GHGs). More recently, the US Environmental Protection thus, creating more emissions and burning more fuel. Both
Agency (EPA) has expanded this initiative combining the indirect and direct rebound effects can be highly relevant
FAPRI and FASOM models in support of national biofuel when calculating environmental impacts due to a change in
policy (US EPA 2010). Importantly, such models provide a production, also known as environmental rebound effects
spatial resolution of production, which can have unique (Spielmann et al. 2008). In the literature, rebound effects
environmental impacts (depending on local political and are likely grouped under CLCA because they occur as a
environmental conditions) for the same product output. consequence of a decision and are determined using market
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models provide information.
another method for estimating indirect impacts in LCA. Other economic tools have been integrated with CLCA
Similar to PE modeling, CGE models are typically used to techniques to create hybrid methodologies. Sanden and
model policy effects via the assumption of maximizing Karlstrom (2007) incorporate experience curves and learn-
agents. Unlike PE models, however, CGE includes all ing effects into CLCA. An experience curve empirically
sectors within the economic system. While CGE models are models the relationship between cumulative production and
more comprehensive than PE models, they typically lack unit cost (Argote and Epple 1990). A power function is
the amount sectoral level detail (Ekvall 2002). Kløverpris et typically used to describe this inverse relationship. In other
al. (2008) developed a framework to softlink a CGE model words, as cumulative production experience increases
called the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) with LCA (typically measured in labor hours) the production cost
to estimate ILUC impacts with respect to agricultural per good decreases—levelling out at some constant once
markets. GTAP outputs change among 57 economic sectors the technology becomes well established. Sanden and
across 87 regions as a result of a “shock” in demand, Karlstrom (2007) propose that if a certain investment is
supply, policy, etc. Kløverpris (2009) utilized GTAP to needed to realize learning and economies of scale until the
estimate land area of affected ecosystem biomes based on point where the technology is competitive, then the
the location of land-use change. This novel LCI metric technology could be credited a share of emission reduction
would then feed into a life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) in proportion to its share of the total required learning
method to determine impacts associated land conversion by investment. They provide the example of hydrogen fuel cell
biome. The US EPA also used GTAP to estimate ILUC bus technology. Compared to a baseline scenario in which
impacts (i.e., GHGs and regulated pollutants) associated fossil energy sources dominate the market over the next
with national biofuel policy (US EPA 2010). century, high investment today in hydrogen technology
Moreover, CLCA models can reveal valuable informa- development would accumulate experience and ultimately
tion regarding “rebound effects” (Ekvall 2002). There are drive down the cost of production. Sanden et al. (2007)
two types of rebound effects: direct and indirect (Hofstetter argue that the future environmental reductions from the
and Norris 2003). Direct rebound effects occur when baseline scenario could be credited to hydrogen technol-
greater efficiency lowers the price for a service which ogy today proportionate to the amount invested. They
increases the use of this cheaper service. As an example, a suggest that this method more accurately represents the
change in energy efficiency for an air conditioning unit real environmental impacts resulting from adoption of
could lower the price of cooling, leading to increased hydrogen technology. Pehnt et al. (2008), as another
usage. Indirect rebound effects occur when efficiency example, softlink the output from a stochastic model of the
lowers the price of production for a commodity, thus European electricity market with LCA to more accurately
freeing up more consumer income to be spent on other determine affected technologies from adopting offshore
goods—assuming that prices of other commodities and wind technology.
income are constant. An example of an indirect rebound Seminal papers driving the historical and methodological
effect is the advancement of computer technology. As the development of CLCA are discussed above. The following
price of personal computers falls due to gains in production section characterizes prior CLCA studies in light of this
efficiency, available consumer income (due to cheaper background information.
computers) can be spent on other goods (see Thiesen et
al. 2008 for another example). Efficiencies in time use can
also result in rebound effects. For example, the result of 3 Characterization of past literature

Overall, 25 articles were selected for review in this analysis

11
See US EPA (2010) for more information on the FAPRI model used of past literature. Only applications of CLCA are included
to assess the ILUC impacts associated with US biofuel policy in Table 1. Strictly theoretical papers are mentioned above
Table 1 Applications of CLCA

Reference Topic CvA SWA PEM MMMR-PEM CGE ILUC RE Notes

Hofstetter and Norris (2003) Occupational Health Y N N N N N Y Framework for CLCA w/r/t occupational health
impacts; argues for inclusion of changes
in unemployment and substitution effects in labor market
Weidema (2003) Many topics N Y N N N N N Extension of Weidema et al. (1999)
Ekvall and Andrae (2006) Electronics Y Y Y N N N N Extension of Ekvall (2000) to electronics industry
Thrane (2006) Fishing N Y N N N N N Application of Weidema et al. (1999)
Lesage et al. (2007a) Brownfields N N Y N N N N Extension of Ekvall (2000) to brownfields
Lesage et al. (2007b) Brownfields Y N Y N N N N Extension of Ekvall (2000) to brownfields
Eriksson et al. (2007) Heating N N N N N N N Optimization model of EU energy market
Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453

used to determine affected technology

Sanden and Karlstrom (2007) Renewable fuels N Y N N N N N Experience curves introduced into CLCA
Schmidt et al. (2007) Paper N Y N N N N N Application of Weidema et al. (1999)
Spielmann et al. (2008) Mass transit N N N N N N Y Rebound effects associated with changes in mobility
patterns due to time savings
Thiesen et al. (2008) Consumer goods N N N N N N Y Rebound effect of price differences
between products on consumption
Kløverpris et al. (2008) Agriculture N N N N Y Y N Utilizes CGE model (GTAP) to
estimate ILUC from agricultural expansion
Dalgaard et al. (2008) Agriculture N N Y Y N N N Utilizes economic model ESMERALDA
to identify affected technology
Schmidt and Weidema (2008) Agriculture N Y N N N Y N Augments Weidema et al. (1999)
and Ekvall (2000); agricultural
statistics and outlooks to determine
affected technologies
Schmidt (2008a) Agriculture N Y N N N Y N Augments Weidema et al. (1999)
and Ekvall (2000); agricultural
statistics and outlooks to determine affected technologies
Schmidt (2008b) Agriculture N Y Y N N Y N LCIA of land-use change with respect to biodiversity
Thomassen et al. (2008) Agriculture Y Y Y N N Y N Application of Schmidt and Weidema (2008)
Frees (2008) Metals N N Y N N N N Application of Ekvall (2000)
Pehnt et al. (2008) Electricity N N N N N N N Coupling LCA and stochastic
European electricity market model
Searchinger et al. (2008) Biofuel N N Y Y N Y N Use of FAPRI PE model to estimate ILUC impacts with
respect to US biofuels policy
Vieira and Horvath (2008) Buildings Y Y Y N N N N Application of Weidema et al. (1999) and Ekvall (2000)
to building end-of-life stage
Kløverpris (2009) Agriculture N N N N Y Y N Kløverpris et al. (2008) + biomes characterization
Reinhard and Zah (2009) Biofuel Y Y Y N N Y N Application of Schmidt and Weidema (2008)
Silalertruksa et al. (2009) Biofuel N Y Y N N Y N Application of Schmidt and Weidema (2008)
449
450 Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453

CvA comparison of consequential and attributional LCA, SWA use of step-wise approach to identifying affected technology (from Weidema et al. 1999), PEM partial equilibrium modeling,
MMMR-PEM Multi-Market, Multi-Regional Partial Equilibrium Modeling, CGE computable general equilibrium modeling, ILUC indirect land-use change examined, RE rebound effects
Use of large FAPRI AND FASOM PE models, and GTAP
and not included in the table. Several seminal papers (e.g.,
Ekvall (2000) and Weidema et al. (1999)) are not included
in this table, as they are discussed above. Also, we do not
CGE model to determine ILUC impacts with
include Ekvall and Weidema (2004) which provides a
comprehensive review of CLCA until 2004, and impor-
Application of Kløverpris et al. (2008) tantly combines the methods of Weidema et al. (1999) and
Ekvall (2000) in a single article. We provide a breakdown
according to the general topic to which CLCA was applied.
respect to US biofuels policy

Additionally, we characterize these studies according to

some of the key aspects of CLCA discussed previously,
such as Weidema et al.’s (1999) step-wise approach to
identifying affected technologies, PE modeling, rebound
effects, and so on. Moreover, notes are provided which give
further detail about any unique or identifying aspects of the
study.
Notes

3.1 Attributional versus consequential LCA

RE

In this review, we identify six articles which performed

both ALCA and CLCA for the purpose of comparison. The
ILUC

topics covered include occupational health, electronics,

Y

brownfields, agriculture, buildings, and biofuels. The

CGE

debate on how and when to perform ALCA versus CLCA

Y

is not yet resolved (Zamagni et al. 2008). The identification

of affected technologies, collection of marginal data (i.e.,
MMMR-PEM

which technologies will be affected and how much), and

associated uncertainties are at the center of this controversy.
Tillman (2000) argues that it will be hard to establish
Y

consensus on how to identify affected technologies and

collect marginal data. Moreover, Tillman (2000) asserts that
PEM

ALCA provides a simpler framework with smaller system

Y

boundaries, which implies less data collection. Contrarily,

Weidema (2003) argues that due to the exclusion of
SWA

unchanged unit processes, CLCA will typically require less

N

data collection despite system boundary expansion. From a

CvA

theoretical perspective, Weidema et al. (1999) argues that

N

ALCA has little to no relevance—even to hot-spot

identification, environmental product declarations, or as
generic consumer information. He states that
“outside of a consequential context, any separation of
Agriculture

product systems will be inherently normative i.e.:

Biofuel

“Providing we use method X for dividing car driving

Topic

from the rest of the technosphere, what is its

environmental contribution?” implying that the ques-
tion carries the premises for its own answer”
(Weidema 2003).
Kløverpris et al. (2010)
Table 1 (continued)

The main concern of Weidema (2003) is that ALCA

US EPA (US 2010)

determines system boundaries normatively, instead of

basing system delimitation decisions on causality or
Reference

examined

consequences reflective of real-world behavior.

Of the articles reviewed, marginal data collection
generally appeared to be challenging, mostly due to
Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453 451

unavailability of such information. For example, Ekvall and expanded on Searchinger et al. (2008) to include the
Andrae (2006) could not find information on the marginal FASOM model as well. These models provide a high-
use of electricity for the EU. In addition, representative data level of detail specific to agriculturally related markets.
was used in place of marginal data for several other Due to this limited focus, however, it is not immediately
subsystems. Vieira and Horvath (2008) encountered a clear whether such MMMR-PE models are available for
similar difficulty in identifying marginal data with respect other sectors (e.g., electronics, minerals, metals, etc.).
to building industry. Schmidt (2008), on the other hand, Furthermore, no effort to identify and review available
more successfully develops estimates for identifying affect- MMMR-PE models in terms of relevance to LCA has
ed agricultural technologies using the step-wise approach been performed. This is clearly an important step in
introduced by Weidema et al. (1999). Thomassen et al. understanding the sectors for which such models exist
(2008) and Reinhard and Zah (2009) successfully apply the and at what level of detail.
technique developed by Schmidt (2008). In addition, Also demonstrating the trend toward integrating larger,
Thomassen et al. (2008) note that an equivalent amount of more complex economic models and CLCA, is the use of
data collection was required when performing CLCA and GTAP by Kløverpris et al. (2008) and US EPA (2010) to
ALCA. determine affected technologies across the global economy.
While data collection is currently an obstacle for CLCA, While CGE models provide more comprehensive output
the method can reveal unique environmental insights with respect to number of sectors and regions included,
beyond ALCA. Ekvall and Andrae (2006) found that product sector resolution is very low. As a result, it is not
ALCA revealed that the shift from lead-containing to clear what the actual affected product is beyond generic
lead-free solder means that lead is virtually eliminated from sector categories. This could be a challenge with respect to
the solder life cycle. CLCA, on the other hand, showed to matching LCI data to general market sectors. For example,
what extent the shift reduces overall use of lead, how lead LCI data typically represents a specific product system or
use will increase in other life cycles and, in the products in an average product system. On the other hand, CGE models
which lead use will increase when the metal is eliminated (such as GTAP) only have 57 economic sectors. Thus, it
from solder paste. Lesage et al. (2007b) likewise found that could be necessary to create aggregate LCI datasets
CLCA uniquely captures the aspect of site fate in the weighted by market-share to represent a sector’s unit
context of brownfield redevelopment, whereas ALCA does output.
not. Thomassen et al. (2008) found differences between The spatial resolution provided by many MMMR-PE
ALCA and CLCA in total quantitative outcomes, hotspots, and CGE models opens new opportunities for research on
and degrees of understanding among stakeholders. On the indirect impacts associated with specific geographic
other hand, with respect to building end-of-life Vieira and regions. As a hypothetical example, an increased demand
Horvath (2008) found little difference between the ALCA for wood-based biofuel could shift some paper production
and CLCA results. to Indonesia. Regulatory, production, and geographical
factors in Indonesia would likely be different from the
3.2 Integrating larger, more complex economic models USA. Fewer emission regulations may exist. Biomass
with CLCA production will likely involve different species and culti-
vation techniques. Moreover, holding LCI values constant
The first efforts to account for indirect environmental per unit biofuel, a unique set of LCIA values will exist
impacts in LCA appealed to simple partial equilibrium depending on local geographic features (Earles and Halog
models (i.e., Ekvall 2000) and heuristic methods for 2010a, 2010b). The capacity of MMMR-PE and CGE
identifying affected technologies (i.e., Weidema et al. models to geographically identify changes in production
1999). Over the past 10 years, however, researchers have aligns with concurrent efforts to regionalize LCI and LCIA
expanded from these initial developments to more complex datasets (e.g., Steinberger et al. 2009; Wegener Sleeswijk
and comprehensive economic models. More specifically, the and Heijungs 2010; Gallego et al. 2010).
move toward MMMR-PE models and CGE models demon- Rebound effects and experience curves represent com-
strates this trend. One early example of a study that used plex economic phenomena that can lead to indirect
MMMR-PE modeling is Dalgaard et al. (2008). They utilize a environmental impacts. We only identified a few studies
Dutch agricultural model to identify marginal rapeseed and that examined rebound effects in the context of LCA.
spring barley producers among the 31 farm types, so that Moreover, only one study has investigated the integration
marginal Danish data and not average data were used. of experience curves and LCA. Both of these topics
Searchinger et al. (2008) utilized FAPRI to project the represent opportunities for further research. One field that
affected technologies associated with an increase in demand was not present in the literature reviewed is system
for corn-based ethanol. More recent efforts, by the US EPA dynamics. Future research might work to advance CLCA
452 Int J Life Cycle Assess (2011) 16:445–453

by linking to the well-established field of system Ekvall T, Weidema B (2004) System boundaries and input data in
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CLCA began as an effort to incorporate market information 122–155
Frees N (2008) Crediting aluminium recycling in LCA by demand or
into LCA to avoid the problem of normatively cutting-off a by disposal. Int J Life Cycle Assess 13(3):212–218
product’s system boundary. Since this initial goal, CLCA Gallego A, Rodriguez L, Hospido A, Moreira MT, Feijoo G (2010)
has been the object of much research and debate. Development of regional characterization factors for aquatic
Consensus on when to use CLCA and standardizing the eutrophication. Int J Life Cycle Assess 15:32–43
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