Optimal Trading With Taxes
Optimal Trading With Taxes
3, 137–165 (1999)
c Springer-Verlag 1999
(e-mail: [email protected])
Key words: Portfolio management, stopping time, stochastic control, taxes, trans-
action costs
1 Introduction
organized by the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, January
– June 1995. We are very grateful to the Newton Institute for its kind hospitality. Abel Cadenillas
is also grateful to the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, where he made some of his
contributions to this paper. His research was supported in part by the Social Sciences and Humanities
Research Council of Canada grant 410-97-0204.
Manuscript received: June 1997; final version received: February 1998
138 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
affect after-tax returns, but these studies (see, for example, Miller 1977; Miller
and Scholes 1978; Schaefer 1982; Constantinides 1983, 1984; Constantinides and
Ingersoll 1984; Dybvig and Ross 1986; Bossaerts and Dammon 1994; Dammon,
Dunn and Spatt 1989 and Dammon and Spatt 1996) tend to deal with specific
situations, to make simplifying assumptions, and to emphasize the consequences
for security market equilibrium. And the conventional wisdom emerging from
this literature seems to be that while one should cut one’s losses short, one should
never realize a gain.
The papers by Constantinides 1983, 1984; and Dammon and Spatt 1996; are
especially germane to this paper. The first of these three papers (Theorem 1, page
617) showed for a case of no transaction costs, no distinction between tax rates
for short term versus long term capital investment, and a general price model
for a single risky security that it is optimal to realize losses immediately and
to defer the realization of gains as long as possible. While the first conclusion
is consistent with our results, because it is desirable to collect tax credits, the
second is not. The difference is due, however, to restrictions on the choice of
admissible trading strategies, for Constantinides (1983, page 615) assumes for the
investor the absence of the need to speculate, rebalance his portfolio, or consume
the proceeds.
In his second paper Constantinides 1984; introduced a distinction between
tax rates for short term versus long term capital transaction, and he showed
for a binomial stock price model, where short term positions become long term
positions after the first time period, that it can be optimal to realize a long term
gain if the long term tax rate is sufficiently smaller than the short term rate. On
the other hand, if the two tax rates are the same, then the situation is the same as
in his earlier paper, and all gains should be deferred. However, Constantinides
was again implicitly looking at a restricted class of trading strategies.
Dammon and Spatt 1996; extended the Constantinides 1984; binomial model
approach by allowing N , the number of trading periods before a short term
position becomes a long term position, to be greater than one. Although their
model was designed to study a tax system where short term and long term tax
rates are different, their special case of N = 0 corresponds to symmetric taxation.
In this case their optimal strategy is described by a single non-negative number
xL : defer all gains and losses if and only if the current price divided by the basis
exceeds xL . Single critical number policies can be inconsistent with the results in
our paper, although it is difficult to reconcile the N = 0 version of the Dammon
and Spatt 1996; model with ours because the two models are rather different and
their analysis was not mathematically rigorous.
In addition to taxes, our trading model assumes a fixed transaction cost asso-
ciated with each transaction. Hence under an optimal strategy there will be only
a finite number of transactions in any finite interval of time. At the end of our
paper, however, we eliminate this transaction cost from our model, thereby lead-
ing to a form of continuous trading. We should mention that a moderate number
of recent studies have investigated optimal portfolio problems where there are
transaction costs but taxes are ignored. For example, Assaf, Taksar and Klass
Taxes and transaction costs 139
1988; Davis and Norman 1990; Dumas and Luciano 1991; Morton and Pliska
1995; and Shreve and Soner 1994 investigated markets where there is a single
risky security and a deterministic bank account (see Karatzas 1996; for other
references on this problem).
In this paper we consider a financial market in which there is a single stock
and its price is modeled by a geometric Brownian motion. There is a single tax
rate (i.e., no distinction between short and long term capital gains), and the stock
pays no dividends. There is an investor, and at each point in time he must have
all his money invested in this stock. At any point in time he can sell his stock,
but when he does so he pays a transaction cost, he pays a tax if he has a capital
gain, he receives a tax credit if he has a loss (this is a standard assumption in the
economics literature), and he must take all the remaining money and immediately
invest it back in the same stock. Can such a transaction ever be sensible, even if
the investor is holding a gain? The main point of this paper is to show that the
answer is yes.
We should point out that our model is equivalent to one where the financial
market has several or even many stocks, with each modeled by a geometric
Brownian motion, all having the same parameters. Thus the stocks are identical
from the statistical standpoint, but the investor can invest in only one at a time.
Whenever he chooses to do so, the investor can switch from one stock to another,
thereby incurring the same kinds of transaction costs and tax payments as above.
The reader may find this second perspective more useful than the first.
Our model is spelled out in detail in the following section. The investor’s
objective will be to maximize the long-run growth rate of his portfolio. Since
transaction costs will have a fixed component, transactions will occur only at
discrete times which are Markov renewal times, and so optimal trading strategies
will be described by a stopping rule which governs the time between transactions.
Sections 3 and 4 examine the no-tax case and what we call the high appre-
ciation rate case, respectively. We show that buy-and-hold is optimal in both
cases. This leaves for Sect. 5 what we call the interesting case, where the stock’s
appreciation rate is moderate, relative to volatility. We provide characterizations
of the optimal trading strategy as well as two algorithms for its computation.
We also present a numerical example where it is optimal to realize gains. The
key idea here is that the tax basis should be accounted for in the dynamic pro-
gramming formulation, in which case there may be times when gains should be
realized because the capital gains tax to be paid is compensated by the value of
increasing the basis.
Section 6 analyses various aspects of the optimal solution, including the
effects of the transaction cost and tax rate parameters. Some analysis is analytical,
some is numerical, and all is accompanied by economic interpretations.
When we consider the special case with the transaction cost rate equal to zero,
we get some explicit results. Now trading under the optimal strategy is continuous
under some conditions, the value of the corresponding portfolio grows like a
geometric Brownian motion, and we get an explicit formula for the long-run
growth rate corresponding to continuous trading. This is the subject of Sect. 7.
140 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
where µ, the drift coefficient, and σ, the volatility parameter, are positive con-
stants. Here W is a standard Brownian motion, which equals zero at time t = 0.
We assume that the long-run growth rate of the stock is positive, i.e.,
1
λ := µ − σ 2 > 0. (2)
2
We define the stochastic process X by
St 1 2
Xt := = exp µt + σWt − σ t . (3)
S0 2
Thus Xt represents the price of the stock at time t relative to the tax basis, i.e.
the purchase price.
Suppose that whenever a stock is sold, the fraction α times the monetary
value of the stock is paid as the transaction cost, leaving (1 − α) times the value
of the stock as the amount of money available to invest in the next stock. In
particular, if one share of stock is purchased at time zero and this stock is sold at
time t, then (1 − α)St is available for subsequent investment. Usually, α ∈ [0, 1]
is a small positive number, such as 0.05.
We also suppose that this investor must pay taxes at a rate β ∈ [0, 1]. To
model this, suppose an investor purchases one share of stock at time 0. If τ
denotes the amount of time that the investor owns this stock, then the after-tax
profit per share is
{(1 − α)Sτ − S0 }(1 − β),
the after-tax return over τ is
Sτ
(1 − α) − 1 (1 − β),
S0
and the factor by which wealth is increased (i.e., the price relative) is
Sτ
β + (1 − β)(1 − α) = β + (1 − β)(1 − α)Xτ . (4)
S0
Notice that if the profit is positive, then the investor pays a tax equal to β times
the profit, whereas if the sale incurs a loss, then the investor receives a payment
equal to β times the absolute value of the loss. In other words, we assume there
is other income, perhaps from the sale of other stock or from regular income,
so the tax credit from a loss can be realized as an actual cash payment. We
Taxes and transaction costs 141
ignore complications of the tax laws such as distinctions between regular and
investment income, limitations on tax credits, wash rules concerning the length
of time between the time when a stock is sold and then repurchased, and so forth.
We also assume, for simplicity, that tax payments and receipts are made at the
time when the stock transaction occurs, not, for example, at the end of some tax
year.
Now suppose the investor wants to invest in a sequence of stocks, all of
which are identical in that they are all described by (1). The investor does this
by choosing a sequence {τi } of transactions times with 0 = τ0 < τ1 < .... The
initial funds, denoted by V0 , are all invested in the first stock at time τ0 . At time
τ1 , this position is closed out and all the after-tax proceeds are invested in the
second stock. This transaction cycle is repeated at times τ2 , τ3 , · · ·.
Let the random variable
Mi := β + (1 − β)(1 − α)Xτi /Xτi −1
represent the multiplicative factor by which the value of the investment increases
over the i-th transaction cycle, so that V0 M1 M2 ...Mi is the value of the investment
just after the i-th transaction. Note that Mi has the same probability distribution
as the random variable β + (1 − α)(1 − β)X (τi − τi −1 ), because Mi is just the
price relative associated with the i-th transaction cycle.
Problem 2.1. The investor wants to maximize the long-run growth rate of his or
her investment (this is the Kelly criterion). If Vt denotes the value of the investment
at time t, then the long-run growth rate of the investment is
1
E [log Vt ].
lim (5)
t→∞ t
This is consistent with logarithmic utility, so our investor is less risk averse than
most investors seem to be. Our investor plans to live a long time, so the infinite
planning horizon is assumed for simplicity.
It is convenient to denote
g(x ) := log{β + (1 − β)(1 − α)x }, ∀x ∈ (0, ∞). (6)
We also denote by S the class of stopping times for the process X defined in
(3) that take values in (0, ∞), and
S ˜ := {τ ∈ S : E [τ ] ∈ (0, ∞)} (7)
for the subclass of stopping times with positive but finite expectation.
Lemma 2.1. For every η ∈ (0, ∞) and τ ∈ S ˜ ,
Z τ
E [g(Xτ ) − ητ ] = g(1) + E [ Yt dt], (8)
0
where Y = Y (η) is the stochastic process defined by
2
(1 − α)(1 − β)Xt σ2 (1 − α)(1 − β)Xt
Yt := µ− − η. (9)
β + (1 − α)(1 − β)Xt 2 β + (1 − α)(1 − β)Xt
142 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
We observe now that the expected value of the stochastic integral in (10) is zero
when E [τ ] < ∞. In fact, if β = 0, then the stochastic integral is just σWτ , and we
may apply Wald’s identity for Brownian motion (see, for instance, Sect. 4.2.8 of
Lipster and Shiryayev (1977)). If β ∈ (0, 1] then the integrand of the stochastic
integral is bounded, so the claim is still valid. Hence, taking the expected value
in (10), we obtain (8).
Lemma 2.2. If the pairs (τi , Mi ), i ∈ N, are independent and identically dis-
tributed with E [τ1 ] < ∞, then
1 E [log M1 ] E [g(Xτ1 )]
lim E [log Vt ] = = .
t→∞ t E [τ1 ] E [τ1 ]
Proof. It is easy to see that the stochastic process Y of Lemma 2.1 is bounded.
Thus if τ is a stopping time with E [τ ] < ∞, then E [g(Xτ )] < ∞. This implies
E [log M1 ] < ∞. Applying renewal theory (see Theorem 3.6.1 of Ross (1996)),
we get the conclusion of this Lemma.
In view of (6) and Lemma 2.2, the investor’s portfolio management problem
can be restated as follows:
Problem 2.1 has been transformed by Markov renewal theory (see Ross
(1996)) into Problem 2.2, a problem of selecting a single stopping time. Thus,
after each transaction it is as if the process X starts fresh with a value of one, so
Xt always represents the stock price relative to the tax basis, i.e., the most recent
purchase price.
Since the long-run growth rate of our geometric Brownian motion stock
is λ = µ − 12 σ 2 , this will therefore equal the long-run growth rate of the
investment if the investor employs a buy-and-hold strategy corresponding to
ζ := inf {t ≥ 0 : Xt ∈/ (0, ∞)} = ∞. We shall prove in Sect. 6 (see Propo-
sition 6.1) that λ is also the long-run growth rate corresponding to any cut-
losses-short-and-let-profits-run strategy. These are strategies of the form ξ(a) :=
inf {t ≥ 0 : Xt ∈
/ (a, ∞)} , where 0 < a < 1. The specific form of τ̂ will vary
according to the parameters, as will be seen in the sections that follow.
Taxes and transaction costs 143
3 No taxes
µ ≥ σ2 ,
θ̂ := sup J (τ ),
τ ∈S ˜
and observe that θ̂ ≥ λ > 0. Since the mathematical techniques to solve Problem
2.2 are now more complicated than in the previous cases, we start by solving
Problem 2.2 for a subclass of stopping times. We denote by
where
h(a, b) = (14)
−( 2λ2 ) −( 2λ2 )
log{β+(1−β)(1−α)a}[b σ −1] + log{β +(1 − β)(1 − α)b}[1−a σ ]
λ .
−( 2λ2 ) −( 2λ2 )
(log a)b σ −(log b)a σ +(log b) − (log a)
Proof. We observe that, for every 0 < a < 1 < b < ∞,
E [log{β + (1 − β)(1 − α)Xτ (a,b) }]
J (τ (a, b)) := .
E [τ (a, b)]
g(a)P {Xτ (a,b) = a} + g(b)P {Xτ (a,b) = b}
= , (15)
E [τ (a, b)]
where g is given by (6). The probabilities and expectation here can be computed
by analysing an ordinary Brownian motion with drift. According to Theorem
7.5.2 of Karlin and Taylor (1975),
= , (16)
b −( σ2 ) − a −( σ2 )
2λ 2λ
Taxes and transaction costs 145
and similarly
b −( σ2 ) − 1
2λ
On the other hand, by a standard computation of the expected first passage time
(see, for instance, Sect. 8.4 of Ross (1996)),
J (τ ) ≤ θ̂, ∀τ ∈ S ˜ ,
with equality for some τ̂ ∈ S ˜ . Equivalently, Problem 2.2 has a solution if and
only if
E [g(Xτ ) − θ̂τ ] ≤ 0, ∀τ ∈ S ˜ , (21)
with equality for some τ̂ ∈ S ˜ . We recognize that if θ̂ is a fixed constant, then
the problem of maximizing the left-hand-side of (21) is a traditional optimal
stopping problem. Thus we are interested in solving the following equivalent
problem:
Problem 5.1 First, for each θ ≥ λ, solve the optimal stopping problem with value
Let us denote
s(1) = 0, (31)
s(a) = g(a), (32)
s(b) = g(b), (33)
s 0 (a) = g 0 (a), (34)
0 0
s (b) = g (b). (35)
Equations (34)-(35) are the smooth-fit condition. Equations (31)-(35) are equiv-
alent to
c+d = 0, (36)
(1− 2µ2 ) θ
c + da σ + log a = log{β + (1 − α)(1 − β)a}, (37)
(µ − 12 σ 2 )
2µ θ
c + db (1− σ2 ) + log b = log{β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b}, (38)
(µ − 12 σ 2 )
2µ 2µ θ 1 (1 − α)(1 − β)
d (1 − 2 )a (− σ2 ) + = , (39)
σ (µ − 2 σ ) a
1 2 [β + (1 − α)(1 − β)a]
2µ (− 2µ2 ) θ 1 (1 − α)(1 − β)
d (1 − )b σ + = , (40)
σ 2
(µ − 2 σ ) b
1 2 [β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b]
2µ
(1 − α)(1 − β)a ( σ2 ) θ 2µ
− a ( σ2 −1)
[β + (1 − α)(1 − β)a] (µ − 12 σ 2 )
2µ
(1 − α)(1 − β)b ( σ2 ) θ 2µ
= − b ( σ2 −1) , (43)
[β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b] (µ − 2 σ )
1 2
148 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
( )
(1 − α)(1 − β) θ 1 2µ −1 2µ
− (1 − ) a − a ( σ2 )
[β + (1 − α)(1 − β)a] (µ − 12 σ 2 ) a σ 2
θ
+ log a − log{β + (1 − α)(1 − β)a} = 0, (44)
(µ − 12 σ 2 )
( )
(1 − α)(1 − β) θ 1 2µ −1 ( 2µ2 )
− (1 − ) b − b σ
[β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b] (µ − 12 σ 2 ) b σ2
θ
+ log b − log{β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b} = 0. (45)
(µ − 12 σ 2 )
To solve this system of equations, we first find a, b, and θ from equations (43)-
(45). Then, we obtain c and d from equations (41)-(42).
It is important to realize that, up to this point, the existence of a solution
to (41)-(45) is not enough to guarantee that this is also the solution of Problem
5.1, due to nonuniqueness. However in Theorem 5.2, we shall give additional
conditions under which the solution of this system of equations is indeed a
solution of Problem 5.1.
Theorem 5.2. Let a, b, c, d , and θ, where 0 < a < 1 < b < ∞, θ ≥ λ, and
c, d ∈ <, be a solution of equations (41)-(45). We define the function V by
f (x ) if x ∈ (a, b),
V (x ) := (46)
g(x ) if x 6∈ (a, b),
where
2µ θ
f (x ) = c + dx (1− σ2 ) + log x . (47)
(µ − 12 σ 2 )
If
f (x ) ≥ g(x ), ∀x ∈ (a, b), (48)
1
β{µ − 2θ − (µ2 − 2θσ 2 ) 2 }
a≤ , (49)
2(1 − α)(1 − β)(θ − µ + 12 σ 2 )
and
1
β{µ − 2θ + (µ2 − 2θσ 2 ) 2 }
b≥ , (50)
2(1 − α)(1 − β)(θ − µ + 12 σ 2 )
then
V (x ) = sup E x [g(Xτ ) − θτ ]. (51)
τ ∈S ˜
Z t
Zt = Z0 + q(Xs )1{Xs 6∈(a,b)} ds
0
Z t
(1 − β)(1 − α)Xs
+ 1{Xs 6∈(a,b)}
0 β + (1 − α)(1 − β)Xs
" # )
2µ (1− σ2µ2 ) θ
+ d (1 − 2 )Xs + 1{Xs ∈(a,b)} σdWs .
σ (µ − 12 σ 2 )
Since the first integrand is nonpositive,
Z τ
E x
q(Xs )1{Xs 6∈(a,b)} ds ≤ 0, ∀τ ∈ S ˜ ,
0
with equality for τ = τ (a, b). In addition,
Z τ
x (1 − β)(1 − α)Xs
E 1{Xs 6∈(a,b)}
0 β + (1 − α)(1 − β)Xs
" # ) #
2µ (1− σ2µ2 ) θ
+ d (1 − 2 )Xs + 1{Xs ∈(a,b)} σdWs = 0, ∀τ ∈ S ˜ ,
σ (µ − 12 σ 2 )
because the integrand of this stochastic integral is bounded. Thus,
E x [Zτ ] ≤ E x [Z0 ], ∀τ ∈ S ˜ ,
with equality for τ = τ (a, b). From condition (48), we then obtain
E x [g(Xτ ) − θτ ] ≤ E x [V (Xτ ) − θτ ] = E x [Zτ ]
≤ E x [Z0 ] = V (x ),
with equality for τ = τ (a, b). Therefore,
sup E x [g(Xτ ) − θτ ] = V (x ) = E x [g(Xτ (a,b) ) − θτ (a, b)].
τ ∈S ˜
Example 5.2 Let us consider the same data as in Example 5.1. Using Maple, we
obtained from equations (43)-(45) that
a = 0.3032934964, b = 7.186001883, θ = 0.02231148251. (56)
Then we obtained from equations (41)-(42)
d = 0.9348432672, c = −0.9348432672. (57)
It is easy to verify that conditions (48)-(50) are satisfied. Therefore, the solution
of Problem 5.1, or equivalently Problem 2.2, is given by the stopping time of (52),
with a, b, and θ given by (56).
Remark 5.1 We conjecture for our “interesting case” that conditions (48)-(50)
are satisfied for any solution of the system of equations (41)-(45). Indeed, these
conditions are satisfied not only for the numerical example of this section, but also
for a variety of other numerical examples that we tried, including the numerical
examples used for the figures in Sect. 6. However, we were unable to prove this
conjecture. The main difficulty is that there is not an explicit solution for the
system (41)–(45).
Taxes and transaction costs 151
In this section we collect some basic properties of the optimal solution for the
interesting case of the preceding section. We also present some numerical results
showing how the optimal solution varies with respect to selected parameters. Our
aim is to develop and verify some economic intuition.
Our first category of results concerns the limiting behavior of the function
h : (0, 1) × (1, ∞) 7→ < (see Theorem 5.1) near the boundary of its domain,
namely, the region where 0 < a < 1 and 1 < b < ∞. Our first such result is
Proposition 6.1. Any cut-losses-short-and-let-profits-run strategy gives the same
performance as buy-and-hold. That is,
2λ
γ := − < 0,
σ2
so b γ decreases to 0 as b increases to ∞. Thus the numerator in the formula for
h (see equation (14)) behaves like log{β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b}(1 − a γ )λ + constant,
whereas the denominator behaves like (1 − a γ ) log{b} + constant. Both diverge
to −∞, but using L’Hospital’s rule we easily obtain the indicated result.
For our next results we need to study the denominator in the formula for h;
we denote this d (a, b). Since ∂d
∂a (1, b) > 0 for all b > 1 and since d (1, b) = 0, it
follows that, for each fixed b, d (a, b) < 0 for all a < 1 in some neighborhood of
1. Of the two terms in the numerator of h, the first one converges to a positive
constant as a ↑ 1, so when divided by d (a, b), the limit as a ↑ 1 is −∞.
Meanwhile, the second term when divided by d (a, b) converges to a constant as
a ↑ 1 by L’Hospital’s rule. Hence
The intuition here is simply that continuous trading is suicidal as long as (as is
being assumed) the transaction cost factor α is strictly positive.
For a final result of this type, fix b > 1 and consider the denominator d (a, b)
as a decreases to 0; it behaves like (1 − a γ ) log b, because this term dominates
(b γ −1) log a. Similarly, the numerator behaves like λ(1−a γ ) log{β +(1−α)(1−
β)b}, so we are able to conclude the following:
Note that 0 < β + (1 − α)(1 − β)b < b for all b > 1, so h(0, b) equals a positive
number less than λ if β +(1−α)(1−β)b > 1, whereas in the opposite case h(0, b)
is some negative number. In either event, h(0, b) < λ. Some intuition: if you
never cut your losses short, then you will be worse off than under buy-and-hold.
Our results on the behavior of h near the boundary of its domain are consistent
with a numerical analysis of our baseline case where µ = 0.065, σ = 0.3, α =
0.02, β = 0.3, and, thus, λ = 0.02. Figure 1 shows the graph of h for the region
where 0.1 < a < 0.99 and 1.01 < b < 35. The surface looks very flat over most
of this region, and it is difficult to see where h is maximized. But if we look
more closely at a smaller region, then we can see more curvature. For example,
Fig. 2 shows h for the region where 0.2 < a < 0.4 and 7.0 < b < 7.4, a small
region where the maximizing values of a and b are found.
In the remainder of this section we shall examine how the optimal solution
is affected by three parameters: λ, β, and α. To see how the optimal long-
run growth rate θ̂ depends on the stock’s long-run growth rate λ, let us denote
∀λ > 0, t ≥ 0, τ ∈ S ˜ :
Xtλ = exp{λt + σWt }
E [log{β + (1 − β)(1 − α)Xτλ }]
J (τ ; λ) =
E [τ ]
Taxes and transaction costs 153
We observe that P {Xτλ1 < Xτλ2 } = 1 for all τ ∈ S ˜ and 0 < λ1 < λ2 , so
J (τ ; λ1 ) < J (τ ; λ2 ) for all τ ∈ S ˜ and 0 < λ1 < λ2 . Hence
Proposition 6.2. The optimal long-run growth rate of the investment is a strictly
increasing function of the long-run growth rate of the stock. That is,
This is accordance with our intuition: the bigger the λ, the better the stock, and
thus the better the optimal result.
We now turn to a study of how the optimal solution is affected by the tax
rate parameter β. We are unable to obtain analytical results for this, so we shall
need to be content with numerical analyses.
Figure 3 shows the optimal long-run growth rate of the investment versus
β, with the other parameters taking the usual baseline values. As expected, this
graph is increasing to a point and then is decreasing. This is as expected because
we know the optimal long-run growth rate is the same as with buy-and-hold both
when β = 0 as well as when β = 1 (in this latter case, after any trade you can
never have more money than what you had at the time of your last transaction,
so buy-and-hold is optimal), and for some intermediate values of β we do better
than buy-and-hold. In particular,
154 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
Remark 6.1. For our baseline values, there is an intermediate value of β that
maximizes the optimal long-run growth rate of the investment.
We conclude this section by looking at the transaction cost parameter α. To
see how θ̂ depends on α, let us denote ∀α ∈ [0, 1], t > 0, τ ∈ S ˜ :
In this section we examine some issues and seek some explicit results for the
case where the transaction costs are zero. From equation (60) and Fig. 4, when
α ↓ 0 for our baseline case, the optimal growth rate θ̂ increases, a increases,
and b decreases. Although it is not obvious from these figures, one possibility is
that a ↑ 1 and b ↓ 1 as α ↓ 0. In other words, some form of continuous trading
might become optimal. For example, suppose α = 0 and the investor trades at
times n1 < n2 < · · · < nk < · · · < ∞, and consider the process describing the
portfolio’s value as n ↑ ∞.
Fix n ∈ N and denote, for each k ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n} and s ≥ (k −1)
n ,
Xs
Yk (s) :=
X (k −1)
n
156 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
σ2 (k − 1)
= exp µ− s− + σ Ws − W (k −1) ,
2 n n
k
= β + (1 − β)Yk β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (t) ,
k =1 n
because dtnc
n ≤t <
dtnc+1
n .
The next result says that the sequence of adapted stochastic processes {Vn }
defined by Vn := {Vn (t) : t ∈ [0, ∞)} converges in distribution as n ↑ ∞ to a
geometric Brownian motion with parameters µ̃ := (1−β)µ and σ̃ := (1−β)σ (the
reader may consult, for instance, Ethier and Kurtz 1986; for the definition and
some results on convergence in distribution of stochastic processes). In particular,
for arbitrary t ∈ [0, ∞), the sequence of random variables {Vn (t)} converges in
distribution to a lognormal random variable.
Proposition 7.1. When α = 0,
d
Vn −→ GBM(µ̃, σ̃).
d
Here −→ denotes convergence in distribution and GBM(µ̃, σ̃) denotes a geometric
Brownian motion with parameters µ̃ := (1 − β)µ and σ̃ := (1 − β)σ.
Proof. See Appendix.
It follows from Proposition 7.1 that with this continuous trading strategy the
value of the investment has a long-run growth rate equal to
1 1
µ̃ − σ̃ 2 = (1 − β)µ − (1 − β)2 σ 2 .
2 2
It is tempting to conjecture that this form of continuous trading is optimal when
α = 0, because µ̃ − 12 σ̃ 2 is consistent with the following limiting value of h(a, b)
as a ↑ 1 and b ↓ 1.
Proposition 7.2. When α = 0,
λ(1 − β)(γ − β) 1
ρ := lim h(a, b) = = (1 − β)µ − (1 − β)2 σ 2 , (61)
a↑1,b↓1 γ 2
where γ := − 2λ
σ2 .
Taxes and transaction costs 157
h(1 − , 1 + )
log{β + (1 − β)(1 − α)(1 − )}[(1 + )γ − 1]
= λ
log(1 − )[(1 + )γ − 1)] + log(1 + )[1 − (1 − )γ ]
log{β + (1 − β)(1 − α)(1 + )}[1 − (1 − )γ ]
+ .
log(1 − )[(1 + )γ − 1)] + log(1 + )[1 − (1 − )γ ]
By doing a Taylor series expansion about = 0, we see that the common de-
nominator in the above two terms is equal to
Applying L’Hospital’s rule, we obtain the desired limits as ↓ 0. The last equality
in the Proposition is obtained immediately by substitution.
Note that for our baseline case when α = 0 we have
0.02(1 − 0.3)(− 49 − 0.3)
ρ= = 0.02345.
− 49
Is this the optimal long-run growth rate when α = 0? We shall answer this ques-
tion shortly, but first consider the following sufficient condition for continuous
trading to be optimal.
Theorem 7.1. Suppose that α = 0, µ = (1 − β)σ 2 , and β < 0.5, Then, for every
τ ∈ S ˜ , we have
J (τ ) ≤ ρ = J (0). (62)
Proof. We are assumming β < 0.5 only to guarantee that σ 2 /2 < µ = (1−β)σ 2 <
σ 2 , so that we are in the interesting case. As in the proof of Theorem 4.1, it
suffices to apply Lemma 2.1 with α = 0 and η = ρ, and show that the process
Y of Lemma 2.1 is nonpositive. Indeed, since g(1) = 0 when α = 0, this would
give E [g(Xτ ) − ρτ ] ≤ 0 for every τ ∈ S ˜ , with equality for τ = 0.
As in the proof of Theorem 5.2, we observe that P {Yt ≤ 0 : ∀t ≥ 0} = 1 if
and only if
2
(1 − β)(1 − α)x 1 (1 − β)(1 − α)x
µ − σ2 − ρ ≤ 0, ∀x > 0,
β + (1 − α)(1 − β)x 2 β + (1 − α)(1 − β)x
which in turn is true if and only if
8 Concluding remarks
That many readers will find some of our results counterintuitive is strong evi-
dence that (1) the results are surprising in the first place, (2) we have not been
completely successful in adding satisfactory economic explanations, and (3) there
is room for a lot more research on this problem. It is rather clear why the tax-
paying investor should cut losses short: the government is willing to subsidize
losses by paying tax credits, so the investor should take advantage of these cred-
its. It is also understandable why the strategy of cutting losses short but letting
profits run will not beat the long-run growth rate of buy-and-hold. But our result
that it can be optimal to cut your profits short is probably the most difficult to
come to terms with as far as economic intuition is concerned. Our best expla-
nation for this, as was stated several times, is that the increase in value due to
bringing the basis up to the current stock price can be greater than the decrease
due to the tax payment. This is in spite of the fact that the cumulative tax paid out
is likely to exceed the cumulative tax credit received. Simple calculations show
that from the expected value standpoint the government is not a net provider of
funds under the optimal strategy.
What seems to be happening can perhaps best be understood by considering
the continuous trading strategy of Section 7 (with α = 0): you are altering the
statistical properties of the after-tax value process in a clever way. Although the
net payments cause the appreciation rate to be reduced from µ to (1 − β)µ (see
Proposition 7.1), there is also a reduction in the volatility from σ to (1−β)σ, and
consequently the resulting long-run growth rate can be higher. This suggests that
even when transactions occur at discrete epochs, the tax system can be used to
reduce the volatility of the after-tax portfolio, thereby enhancing the portfolio’s
long-run growth rate.
It is important to remark that our results are not restricted to our studied
criterion of maximizing the long-run growth rate. Using numerical methods it is
not difficult to find examples where one should cut gains short (in order to reset
the basis) with a finite planning horizon and different utility functions. Hence
our results suggest there could be circumstances when investors would be better
off putting funds into taxable rather than tax-exempt accounts (see Remark 6.1).
Indeed, investors might even be worse off if policy makers were to eliminate
taxes on long term capital investments. Of course, whether these notions are true
for realistic, multi-security situations is a subject for future research.
Appendix.
Proof of Proposition 7.1
We observe that
dtnc
X
k
log Vn (t) = log β + (1 − β)Yk + log β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (t) .
n
k =1
160 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
(1 − β)Yk (s)
+ σdWs .
(k −1)
n
β + (1 − β)Yk (s)
Substracting the first integral on the right-hand-side from the expression on the
left-hand-side, and then adding the resulting expressions, we obtain that for each
n ∈ N and t ∈ [0, ∞),
Mn (t)
dtnc Z
X k Z
n (1 − β)Yk (s) t
(1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s)
= σdWs + σdWs
(k −1) β + (1 − β)Yk (s) dtnc β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s)
k =1 n n
Z t
= Un (s)σdWs ,
0
where
(1 − β)Yk (s)
Un (s) = I (k −1) k .
β + (1 − β)Yk (s) { n ≤s≤ n }
Thus, for arbitrary n ∈ N, Mn = {Mn (t) : t ∈ [0, ∞)} is a martingale with
continuous sample paths and Mn (0) = 0. Let us consider now the sequence of
stochastic processes {An } defined by
An (t) := hMn (t)i, t ∈ [0, ∞).
Taxes and transaction costs 161
X n
dtnc Z k
Yk (s)
2
= (1 − β)2 σ 2 ds
(k −1) β + (1 − β)Yk (s)
k =1 n
Z t 2 #
Ydtnc+1 (s)
+ ds
dtnc β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s)
n
Xdtnc Z t 2
Y dtnc+1 (s)
= (1 − β)2 σ 2 Znk + ds , (64)
dtnc β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s)
k =1 n
where
1
Znk := Rnk ,
n
Z k 2
1 n Yk (s)
Rnk := ds.
1
n
(k −1)
n
β + (1 − β)Yk (s)
Thus, for each n ∈ N, the stochastic process An = {An (t) : t ∈ [0, ∞)} has
continuous sample paths and satisfies, for each t ≥ s ≥ 0, An (t) − An (s) ≥
0. We want to prove that, for arbitrary t ∈ [0, ∞), the sequence of random
variables {An (t)} converges in probability to (1 − β)2 σ 2 t. Since the integral in
Pdtnc
(64) converges in probability to 0, this is equivalent to proving that k =1 Znk
converges in probability to t.
We cannot apply the standard version of the Weak Law of Large Numbers
Pdtnc 1
Pdtnc
to prove that k =1 Znk = n k =1 Rnk converges in probability to t, because
Rnk depends not only on k but also on n. Nevertheless, we observe that for
each n ∈ N and t ∈ [0, ∞), {Znk : k ∈ {1, 2, . . . , dtnc}} are independent and
identically distributed positive random variables. Furthermore, for every n ∈ N
and k ∈ {1, 2, . . . , n},
Z k 2
1 1 n Yk (s)
|Znk | = ds
n n1 (k −1) β + (1 − β)Yk (s)
n
162 A. Cadenillas, S.R. Pliska
Z k 2 2
11 n 1 1 1
≤ ds = . (65)
n n1 (k −1)
n
1−β n 1−β
In addition, as n ↑ ∞,
2
a.s. Y1 (0)
Rn1 = nZn1 −→ = 1. (66)
β + (1 − β)Y1 (0)
We also observe that, for every t ∈ [0, ∞) and > 0,
dtnc dtnc dtnc
X 1X 1X
P {Znk ≥ } ≤ E [Znk I{Znk ≥} ] = E [Zn1 I{Zn1 ≥} ]
k =1 k =1 k =1
1 dtnc
= E [Rn1 I{Zn1 ≥} ]. (67)
n
Inequality (65) implies that Rn1 is bounded by (1 − β)−2 , while the limit in (66)
a.s. a.s.
guarantees not only Rn1 −→ 1, but also I{Zn1 ≥} −→ 0. Thus, we may apply the
Lebesgue Dominated Convergence Theorem (see Corollary 4.2.3 of Chow and
Teicher (1988)) to the right-hand-side of inequality (67). Hence, for every t > 0
and > 0,
dtnc
X
lim P {Znk ≥ } = 0.
n→∞
k =1
According to equation (64), this means that, for each t ∈ (0, ∞),
P
An (t) −→ (1 − β)2 σ 2 t, as n ↑ ∞. (68)
P
Here, −→ denotes convergence in probability.
In summary, for each n ∈ N, Mn is a martingale with continuous sample
paths and Mn (0) = 0. Furthermore, the sequence of stochastic processes {An }
defined by An (t) = hMn (t)i has also continuous sample paths and satisfies, for
each t ≥ s ≥ 0, An (t) − An (s) ≥ 0. Thus, we may apply the Martingale Central
Taxes and transaction costs 163
Limit Theorem (see Theorem 7.1.4 of Ethier and Kurtz (1986)). From equation
(68) we then conclude that
d
Mn −→ (1 − β)σW . (69)
By the same methodology that we applied to prove (68), we can also prove
that for each t ∈ [0, ∞),
P 1
Cn (t) −→ (1 − β)µt − (1 − β)2 σ 2 t, as n ↑ ∞, (70)
2
where
Cn (t)
dtnc Z
( 2 )
X k
n (1 − β)Yk (s) 1 2 (1 − β)Yk (s)
:= µ− σ ds
(k −1) β + (1 − β)Yk (s) 2 β + (1 − β)Yk (s)
k =1
Z t ( )
n
(1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s) 1 2 (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s) 2
+ µ− σ ds.
dtnc
n
β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s) 2 β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s)
(71)
d
Cn −→ C . (73)
Finally, equations (63), (69), and (73) imply that the sequence of stochastic
processes {log Vn } given by
log Vn (t)
dtnc
X
k
= log β + (1 − β)Yk + log β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (t)
n
k =1
dtnc Z k
( 2 )
X n (1 − β)Yk (s) 1 2 (1 − β)Yk (s)
= Mn (t) + µ− σ ds.
(k −1) β + (1 − β)Yk (s) 2 β + (1 − β)Yk (s)
k =1
Z t ( )
n
(1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s) 1 2 (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s) 2
+ µ− σ ds
dtnc
n
β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s) 2 β + (1 − β)Ydtnc+1 (s)
= Mn (t) + Cn (t)
d
Vn −→ GBM((1 − β)µ, (1 − β)σ).
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