journal of Marki'ling Management.

1991, 7, 131-155

Stephen Brown Variations on a Marketing

Department of
Enigma: The Wheel of
Aiarketing, University of Retailing Theory
Ulster, Jordanstown,
Recently described as "the most popular topic area in the entire
Newtownabhey, Co
marketing literature", the wheel of retailing remains a marketing
Antrim BT37 OQB enigma, revered and reviled in almost equal measure. This paper
summarizes the substantial body of literature on the wheel theory
and attempts to account for its remarkable pervasiveness. The
current state of knowledge on retail change is synthesized, a simple
model of institutional evolution is presented and future avenues of
research activity are also pointed out.

Introduction
In the sixty years since Malcolm P McNair (1931) first outlined his famous hypothesis
that new forms of retailing commence as cut price, no frills, narrow margin oper-
ations which gradually evolve into sophisticated, service orientated institutions
(Figure 1), the "wheel of retailing" theory has generated an enormous amount of

Z. TRADING UP
Ifi4titutmn jncrgosai cusiomar
ttrvices, improvas storB interiors,
ta«lcf batter locotions,
and chargas hig^ar pricas

IVULNERABILTr
ConsarHQfiva, top haovy
insiitution craa^as oppof tunity
for naw prica-oriantQtad
ratoilars

I, INNOVKTION
Naw raiQil jn»tjtutjon
ctiaractarijad by cut pricas,
no odvar titjng, tportan
ctorai, limjtad sarvicas
ond low rant locotFon.

Figare 1. The wheel ofretailing

0267-257X/91/02ai31+25 $03,00/0 © 1991 Academic Press Limited
 132 Stephen Browa

academic debate and not a little deprecation. It has been castigated for having
"limited clarity" (Savitt 1988, p, 38), being "vaguely conceived" (Gripsrud 1986, p,
252) and for "failing to meet the criteria for formal theory" (Hirschman and Stampfl
1980, p, 72), Markin and Ehancan (1981, p, 61), moreover, conclude that it is a
"questionable theory of institutional change" and D'Amico (1983, p, 160) once
argued, in an evocative tum of phrase, that it is "dme for the wheel of retailing to roll
off into the sunset".
Despite these scholarly strictures and several vigorous rebuttals over the years
(HoUander 1960a; Goldman 1975, 1978; Savitt 1988), the wheel theory remains a
perennial favourite of marketing academics and appears to be as firmly entrenched
as ever. Like the rhythmic pattern of retail development it seeks to describe, the
concept periodically surfaces in the mainstream marketing journals (e,g, FuUerton
1988; May 1989; Hollander and Omura 1989), It is de rigueur in the opening chapters
of most retailing textbooks and hardly a conference season goes by without some
scholarly cogitation on the evolution of supermarkets, department stores or some
other retailing institutions. Indeed, a recent analysis of retailing thought concluded
that the wheel and its derivatives stand "as the most popular topic area in the entire
marketing literature" (Savitt 1989, p, 336),
The wheel theory, in short, is nothing less than a marketing enigma. On the one
hand, its undoubted inadequacies have been highlighted and ridiculed on numer-
ous occasions. On the other hand, its popularity is such that it remains "the
dominant concept for those who practise and study (and teach) in the retailing field"
(Greyser 1976, p, iii), A very substantial body of literature (over 300 published
papers) now exists on the dynamics of retailing, a host of variants on the wheel
theory have been advocated and the basic model is being increasingly applied to
non-retailing phenomena.
Given the continuing academic interest in the wheel theory, its undiminished
ability to polarize scholarly opinion and, perhaps most appropriately, the fact that
this year is the sixtieth anniversary of McNai/s initial insight^ it is arguable that the
time is now ripe for a critique of this evergreen concept. This paper, therefore, will
attempt firstly, to summarize the wheel of retailing literature; secondly, to synthe-
size the current state of knowledge on retail institutional change; thirdly, to survey
the strengths—and weaknesses—of the wheel theory and thereby endeavour to
account for its pervasiveness; and, fourthly, to suggest a future research agenda.
The objective, it must be stressed, is not to present an exegesis on retailing evolu-
tion—such exercises are available elsewhere—but to explore, and hopefully
explain, the wheel's remarkable and seemingly unbreakable hold upon the imagin-
ations of marketing scholars.

Enigma Variations: the Wheel of Retailing Literature

Like any body of academic thought, the not inconsiderable literature surrounding
the wheel theory can be organized in a variety of ways, ranging from the chronologi-
cal to the thematic. Alternatively, an extant conceptual framework can be utilized,
such as the manifold taxonomies of marketing thought (Hunt, 1983; Sheth et al.
1988), the ubiquitous life cycle model (Hunt and Goolsby 1988), or even the wheel of
retailing itself (Brown 1988), While all such approaches are imperfect, they are
necessary in order to present a diverse literature in a coherent fashion. For the
 The Wheel ofRetailing 'Theory 133

PRODUCT

SAME RELATED NEW

WHEEL OF RETAILING CYCUCAL MODELS NON-CYCUCAL MODELS

Different retailing Retail accordion Environmental analogy

institutions in USA
Retail life cycle Ecological analogy
SAME Causes of pattern
Simplex-omniplex model Dialectical theory
Individual retaiHtrms
Crisis-response theory
Non-retailing applications

WHEEL OF RETAILING CYCLICAL MODELS NON-CYCUCAL MODELS

MARKET Apptications in Europe Poianzation principle Catastrophe theory
and developed world
'Three Wheels" theory Principle of minimum
RELATED Diffusion of innovations differentiation
at intra-national/regional Organizationai "spiral"
scale Adjustment theory
"Waves" of retail
decentraEization

WHEEL OF RETAILING CYCUCAL MODELS NON-CYCLICAL MODELS

Applications in developing Trickle down hypothesis "Refined" wheel of retailing

wofid theory
Stage theory
NEW Retaiting technology
transfer

Adapted from ANSOFF I19S7I

Figure 2. The development ofthe wheel theory

purposes of this particular paper, therefore, Ansoff's (1957) famous product-market

matrix will be pressed into service. As a conceptual framework, it is simple, familiar
to most readers, hitherto unused in a literature reviewing capacity and, somehow
appropriately, an exact contemporary of the best known exposition of the wheel
theory, McNair's 1957 presentation at the University of Pittsburg. Most importantly,
however, it is singularly apt. Marketing theories, after all, are no less prone to
evolution, modification and development than the phenomena they purport to
explain. Indeed, it is arguable that, like business organizations, theories must grow
and change if they are to remain relevant and avoid obsolescence.
As illustrated in Figure 2, the Ansoff framework suggests that the wheel of
retailing literature can be classified into four basic (and nine detailed) categories:
134 Stephen Brown

— market penetration, attempts to apply the original wheel theory to all manner of
retailing institutions in the United States;
— product development, endeavours to formulate aiternative theories of US retailing
evolution;
— market development, applications of the wheel theory outside the United States;
and,
— diversification, the development of alternative conceptual conjectures in non-US
contexts.

Market Penetration
As originally presented by McNair, the wheel of retailing model pertained to the
evolution of department stores and chain stores in the United States of America.
Since then, the concept has been tested against all manner of retailing institutions.
There is considerable, albeit largely anecdotal, evidence that many innovations in
US retailing began, as the wheel suggests, by selling merchandise at below average
prices and progressively evolved into higher cost, quality orientated modes of
distribution. Examples include: variety stores, supermarkets, discount stores, cata-
logue showrooms, warehouse cJubs, off-price shops and shopping centres, home
shopping networks and, to cap it all, itinerant street vendors (Hollander 1960b;
Brand 1%3; Oxenfeldt 1960; AUvine 1968; Korgaonkar 1981; Patton and Deiozier
1983; Lord 1984; Kaikati 1985, 1987; May and Greyser 1989; Greenberg et al. 1980).
These exercises have also shown, however, that a considerable number of US
retail innovations did not evolve as the wheel theory predicts. Boutiques, conve-
nience stores, auto dealers and, as originally noted by Hollander (1960a), planned
shopping centres, automatic vending machines and branch department stores all
entered the market on a high cost basis (Hollander 1962,1980; Moyer and Whitmore
1976; Thomas et al. 1988). Goldman (1975), moreover, has made the point that not
every department store, supermarket or discounter began life as a cut price oper-
ation; there were significant variations on each theme.
Besides the unending debate over the wheel's applicability to innovative retailing
institutions, and the equally incessant arguments over the causes of the "trading
up" process (Table 1), the theory has also been applied to the evolution of individual
retail organizations (Teeple 1979) and the advent of conglomerate or multi-format
retailing (Tinsley et al. 1978). The concept has even been extended to elements of the
retail marketing mix, such as store location (Holmes and Hoskins 1977), own brands
(Hawes and Crittenden 1979) and trading stamps (Fox 1968), and beyond the
retailing arena itself. Wheels of marketing (Peckam 1981), wholesaling (Bucklin
1972) and segmentation (Stone 1989) have all been identified, a "wheel of retaihng
textbooks" exists (Brown 1990a) and, to cite another instance of its pervasiveness,
Michael Porter's (1990) recent book. The Competitive Advantage of Nations, bears the
unmistakable, if unacknowledged, stamp of the wheel theory.'

Product Development
Inspirational and provocative though it has undoubtedly been, the wheel theory is
not a comprehensive conceptualization of retail change. Apart from its acknow-
ledged inability to account for the evolution of every retailing institution in the USA,
it describes but a single aspect of change; an institution's progress along the price-
 The Wheel ofRetailing Theory 135

Table 1. The hypothesized causes ofthe wheel pattern

Cause Rationale tzvidi'na
Retail personalities Deterioration of managerial ability through time. Nieschlag, Dreesman,
Aggressive cost-conscious entrepreneurs evolve Gable and TopoL
into slothful merchant princes.
Misguidance Retailers are led astray by the blandishments of Regan, McGoldrick.
suppliers and trade magazines that encourage
merchants to aquire elaborate fixtures and fittings.
Imperfect competition Fearful of retaliation, retailers avoid direct price Hall et al., Doody,
competition. They prefer to compete on customer Swan, Allvine.
services. An incremental ratchet-like process of cost
and margin increases thus ensues.
Excess capacity As a retailing format expands, the available McNair, Entenberg,
business is spread ever more thinly In these Oxenfeldt.
arcumstances, price cutting is suicidal and retailers
opt for non-price competition.
Secular trends Increasing overall standards of living persuades Hollander, Duncan,
retailers to upgrade their offerings in line with Bartels, Davidson et aL
rising consumer expectahons.
Illusion Scrambled merchandising and the addition of Bucklin.
higher margin Jines may give a spurious impression
of trading up, even though margins on the original
merchandise may be unaltered.
Source: Adapted from Hollander (1960a).

quality continuum. Accordingly, the post wheel literature abounds with attempts to
formulate altemative theories of retailing change. Broadly speaking, these can be
divided into two basic categories, those that are related to the wheel in that they
employ a similar cyclical analogy, and those that do not rely upon the recurrence of
past patterns. The best known examples of the former are the retail accordion, which
hypothesizes perpetual alternation between generalist and specialist outlets (Hol-
lander 1966, 1981), and the retail life cycle which, like the product life cycle (PLC)
upon which it is based, predicts an institution's inexorable progress through the
immutable stages of birth, growth, maturity and decline (Davidson 1970; Davidson
et al. 1976).
The non-cyclical frameworks, by contrast, see the evolution of retailing insti-
tutions either in terms of the influence of the external environment, or as a conse-
quence of the inter-institutional conflict that occurs when innovative types of
retailing appear. According to the environmental approach, new forms of retailing
are a manifestation of changes in underlying economic, social, demographic, legal
and technological conditions (Hall et al 1961; Duncan 1965; Arndt 1972a; Etgar 1984;
Meloche et al, 1988). The conflict based standpoint, on the other hand, endeavours to
explain retail change in terms of the, often bitter, rivalry between new and estab-
lished retailing institutions (Swan 1974; Dickinson 1983). Once again, a wide variety
of models of the latter process exist, most notably Gist's (1968) dialectical theory,
which emphasizes the mutual adaptation between old and new institutions (Maro-
nick and Walker 1974; Kaufman 1985), and the crisis-response model, which pre-
dicts four distinct stages from the emergence of a novel retailing format to the
resolution of the inter-institutional conflict (Stern and El-Ansary 1977).

Market Development

Although the wheel theory was formulated with respect to the evolution of retailing
institutions in the Umted States, the process of conceptual technology transfer has
136 Stephen Brown

resulted in its utilization in a wide variety of national settings. In the main, these
studies reveal that the characteristic cut price-trading up pattern is supported, at
least for certain retailing institutions, by the experiences of developed nations like
Australia (Blizzard 1976), Great Britain (Gibbs 1987; Scott 1989), Belgium (Knee and
Walters 1985; Michel and Van der Eycken 1974), Germany (Nieschlag 1954, 1959;
Nieschlag and Kuhn 1980), Norway (Arndt 1972b), Denmark (Agergaard et al. 1970)
and Italy (Lugh 1987).
Whilst the wheel has considerable relevance to the evolution of retailing insti-
tutions in high level economies, this is most certainly not the case in the developing
world (Bucklin 1976; Savitt 1982). Studies in Turkey (Kaynak 1979; Kaynak and
Cavusgil 1982), Israel (Goldman 1974, 1981, 1982), Guatemala (Ortiz-Buonofina
1987), Saudi Arabia (Alawi 1986; Yavas and Tuncalp 1986), Malaysia (Zain and Rejab
1989) and Hong Kong (Ho and Lau 1988), amongst others, conclusively demonstrate
that retailing innovations tend to enter at the high end of the cost spectrum, appeal
to high income groups in the host country and only gradually trade down. This has
been described as a "reversed" wheel of retailing (Mun 1988), though Hollander
(1970), in an apposite homage to the fashion theory source of the wheel,' preferred
to term it the "trickle down" hypothesis.
At a lower level of spatial resolution, the wheel theory has also been applied to the
spread of retail innovations at the intra-national or regional scale. There are numer-
ous studies of the growth and spread of retail institutions within national and
regional markets (Cohen 1972; Dawson 1984; Lord 1984), not to mention manifold
analyses of the geographical diffusion of individual retailing firms, such as Asda,
McDonalds, IKEA and the Gubay group (Jones 1981; Aspbury 1984; Martenson 1981;
Lord et al. 1988). In addition, Jeffreys (1985) has noted cycles of expansion and
contraction in the internationalization of retailing, though the conceptual source of
this hypothesis was not expressly cited.

Diversijication

Given the wheel's acknowledged lack of comprehensiveness and its inability to

explain the evolution of every retailing institution, either in the developed or,
especially, the developing world, it is not surprising that a variety of alternative
conceptual constructs have been championed. Besides the numerous non-US appli-
cations of above mentioned models like the retail accordion, the retail hfe cycle,
environmental analogies, dialectical theory, crisis-response etc. (eg Blizzard 1976;
Dawson 1979, 1988; Kellerman 1988; McGoldrick 1990; Nooteboom 1984), several
original contributions to the debate have also appeared.
Once more, these insights can be subdivided into those that employ the cyclical
metaphor and those that eschew repetition. It is fair to say, however, that with the
exception of catastrophe theory, which stresses sudden, discontinuous processes of
retailing change (Wilson and Oulton 1983; Dawson 1987), the bulk of these contribu-
tions have been cyclical in character. The polarization principle, for example, inti-
mates that an alternating pattern of large and small retail establishments is discem-
able (Dreesman 1968; Kirby 1976, 1986; Filser 1986); a "three wheels of retailing"
framework has been de velopied in order to accommodate the emergence of both high
and low cost institutions (Izraeli 1973); and a "spiral" of organizational evolution has
been posited for prominent European retailers (Dawson and Burt 1987).
 The Wheel of Retailing Theory 137

If the developed world outside the United States has proved a relatively rich
source of theoretical insights, the same cannot be said for the developing world.
Apart from the trickle down hypothesis and Goldman's (1974,1981,1982) analysis of
the stages of supermarket evolution, most of the (copious) studies of third world
retailing have been content to conclude that, firstly, the wheel does not apply therein
and, secondly, that this is owing to the contrasts in environmental circumstances.
Indeed, these two points are combined in perhaps the best known contribution,
Kaynak's (1979) "refined" wheel of retailing. This states, in effect, thatthe wheel can
only revolve when environmental conditions permit (Kaynak 1988; Kaynakand Rice
1988).

Synthesis
Despite the voluminous literature that has been stimulated by the wheel theory and
the abundance of altemative theories of change, none of these approaches is perfect
(Table 2). True, all manner of interesting "combination" theories have been pro-
Tabte 2. Explanations of retail change: evaluation
Clonci'piuai
frami'work Source Examples Strengths WeaknviSt's
Cycles Historical Wheei of Simpie, easily remembered, Deterministic, inflexible,
sciences retailing. useful yardstick, stresses focus on pattern not process,
retail inevitabilit\' of change. management portrayed as
accordion. powerless, ignores influence
of competitive and socio-
economic environment.
Conflict Behavioural Dialectical Emphasizes interaction and Deterministic, outcomes pre-
sciences theor)'. mutual adaptation that ordained ignores wider
crisis- occurs in wake of environmental context.
response. innovation. Stresses role oi
manager as decision maker.
Environment Natural Ecoiogical Flexible^ focus on Danger of analogy with
sciences analogy "uncontroUables". physical sciences^ ignores
catastrophe Applicable to wide variety importance of human
theor>'- of socio-economic contexts. decision taking.

posed, most notably McNair and May's (1976,1978) melding of environmental and
conflict based perspectives; the spatial analysis of an amalgamated wheel and
accordion undertaken by Deiderick and Dodge (1983); Martenson's (1981) attempt to
integrate the life cycle and crisis-response models in her combined dynamic hypoth-
esis; and, perhaps most importantly of all, the celebrated "theory of spiral move-
ment" (Agergaard ei al. 1970). Useful though they are, however, these "middle
range" (Rosenbloom and Schiffman 1981, p. 168) theories have yet to be successfully
integrated into a comprehensive conceptualization of retail institutional change.
Although the formulation of a comprehensive theory remains a significant chal-
lenge to retail theorists, it is nonetheless possible to sketch from the existing
literature a tentative picture of the nature of retail evolution (Figure 3). It is clear from
their simultaneous emergence, frequently in widely separated locations, that most
retail innovations stem from changes in the business environment, be they technolo-
gical changes (motor cars, satellite TV), economic changes (inflation, interest rates),
legislative changes (shop hours, retail price maintenance (RPM)), demographic
138 Stephen Brown

Price* low/ Prices congruent/high

Increasing s Elaborate servic»s
Wider ronge of goods Full range~of goods
Greoter number oicu Maximum number of outlets
Wider spatioj extent Maximum spot)al exient
Troditionai retoiiers respond Dominated by esiablisfted retailors
to tnn'ovcitors cind its and innovators tttat survive
imitators Innovative competitors app«or
but ignored

Low pTice/cost
Minirrot service Fragmentation of offer
Narrow range of goods Narrow/different range of good
Few outtets \ Prices high/congruent/low
Limiied spatial extent Services reduced/increased
/ hlare limited spoTfai extent
Ignored by estobiishment y
Reduction in outlets

Figure 3. Comprehensive model of retail change

changes (age structure, household size), social changes (working women, green
consumers) or whatever. The opportunities thus created are seized by perceptive
(and highly motivated) individuals who, despite their relative lack of capital
resources and the fact that they are often "outsiders" with comparatively little
experience of the specific retailing sector, manage to establish a new form of retailing
operation. This, more often than not, involves the sale of a narrow range of cut price,
no frills goods from spartan premises in insalubrious locations.
Being in tune with prevailing consumer preferences, the sudden and often over-
whelming success of the new retailing format persuades the founders to open
additional outlets and expand the range of goods and services on offer, thereby
capitalizing upon its rapidly developing customer franchise. By the same token, this
manifest success, with its extremely high levels of space and labour productivity,
also encourages a host of imitators, many of which adopt minor nomendatural
variations on the original. More ominously, it attracts the attention of the established
institutions that once dismissed the newcomer as a minor irritant but now recognize
 The Wheel of Retailing Theory 139

the need to respond to the very real threat that this new form of retailing represents.
These responses come in a variety of (often unsuccessful) forms, though imitating or
adapting salient features of the challenging institution is a particularly common
reaction.
Established institutions thus raise the competitive stakes (and all round
standards) and if the new retailing format is to survive it, in turn, must respond to
this challenge. However, as a result of the rapid proliferation of the concept, the
blurring ofthe distinction between the old and new institutions and the accompany-
ing loss of the innovation's USP (unique selling proposition), cutting prices further is
neither apposite nor possible. On the one hand, the extraordinary volumes of trade,
enormous catchment areas and high levels of productivity, which once permitted
and indeed sustained the original's low margin-high turnover sales policy, simply
no longer exist. On the other hand, shoppers have come to expect the higher
standards that now prevail, possibly as a consequence of growing affluence, and
appear to respond to incremental improvements in the service offer.
Although virtually unavoidable and all but irreversable, this gradual process of
trading up is both profitable and in line with consumer expectations. What is more, it
may well be the preferred strategy of those, by now older and possibly more mellow,
pioneers whose operations have not succumbed along the way or been acquired by
established retailing organizations. Consumer expectations and the retailing
environment, however, are in a constant state of change and inevitably a combi-
nation of circumstances creates conditions conducive to the appearance of a new
breed of cut price specialists. After ignoring the newcomers, the mature institutions
respond by emphasizing either the qualitative differences between the two or
dropping the lines under threat, or, alternatively, by matching the competitor's
prices and/or converting outlets to the new format. Regardless of the nature of the
response, the net effect is a fragmentation of the original retailing proposition.
Retail institutional change, in short, appears to be the outcome of external envir-
onmental influences and a cycle like sequence of inter- and intra-type competition.
These hypotheses, however, remain to be tested formally, though a recent study has
shown that the evolution of the retail warehouse in the UK is in line with the pattern
just described (Brown 1990b).

Evaluation
In endeavouring to evaluate the 60 year history of the wheel of retailing, one is
tempted to conclude that the theory is revered and reviled in almost equal measure.
At one extreme, it has been described as ' t h e most comprehensive theory of
innovation yet developed" (McGammon 1963, p. 488) and, at the other extreme, it
has hieen dismissed as having received "more credibility than it probably deserves"
(Savitt 1989, p. 336). In truth, neither view is entirely correct. The wheel has
manifold weaknesses but it also possesses significant strengths, not least its continu-
ing and powerful grip upon the imaginations of marketing academics.

Strengths

Without doubt, the greatest strength of the wheei theory is the simple fact that it
describes a frequently observed phenomenon. Many retailing institutions in the United
 140 Stephen Brown

States and other developed countries do indeed appear to have evolved in the
manner described by the wheel; admittedly not every institution, but a substantial
number nonetheless. In fact. Gist (1971) has argued that most of the exceptions to the
wheel such as automatic vending, branch department stores etc, are insufficiently
important to warrant "institudonal" status and therefore the theory cannot be
expected to apply. Such a contention surely invites the charge of circular reasoning,
though it serves to emphasize that the evolution of some of the most prominent
retailing institutions largely adheres to the wheel pattern.
Equally important and no less prosaic is the pedagogic value of the wheel. As an
educational tool, it is simple, easily remembered and contains several important
lessons for students of retailing. According to Dickinson (1988), these lessons
include:
— that high prices may provide an umbrella under which discounters can flourish;
— that management must be eternally vigilant on costs, for failure to do so can
destroy competitive advantage;
— that new and unexpected forms of competition will inevitably arise and prove
difficult to respond to and,
— that success in retailing is ephemeral and contains the seeds of eventual failure.
Indeed, if nothing else, the wheel theory serves as a useful reminder that retail
organizations operate in a dynamic and highly competitive environment and that
they must adapt to, and increasingly anticipate, change or run the risk of inevitable
decline (McGoldrick 1990).
More fundamentally perhaps, in a discipline which is preoccupied with the
present and its ability to predict the future with a degree of confidence, the wheel of
retailing is one of the few marketing concepts with an all important sense of the past
(Savitt 1980; Fullerton 1987; Morello 1989). It has, of course, been argued that the
wheel theory itself is ahistorical, i.e. the very antithesis of historical research, and
that it encourages researchers to interpret the past in a selective and distorted
fashion (e.g. Kumcu 1987), Such criticisms, however, overlook the well documented
fact that historical study is inherently selective, both in its assembly of evidence and
method of interpretation (CoUingwood 1946; Atkinson 1978; Tosh 1984). They
further presuppose a single model of historical explanation, which is no more true of
history than it is of marketing. A variety of historical philosophies exist including
positivist, idealist, Marxist and, naturally, cyclical (Gardiner 1959; Bebbington 1979).
Even Karl Popper (1957, p. 110), the supposed scourge of historical model building,
noted that "history may sometimes repeat itself in certain respects", though he
emphasized that the causes of these cycle-like patterns are different on each occasion.
The wheel, however, is more than just a partially substantiated representation of
institutional change, a useful teaching aid and an ahistoric discipline's ahistoric nod
to the past. Its conceptual underpinnings are nothing short of elemental. The notion
of recurrence and cycles of change is discernable in all manner of academic disci-
plines. Besides marketing and business studies (eg Baker 1988, 1989; Adizes 1989),
these include economics (Kim 1988; Watson 1989), pohtical science (Rasler and
Thompson, 1983; Schlesinger 1987), geography (Hall and Preston 1988; Storper
1985), sociology (Hirschman 1982; Young 1988), regional science (Auty 1984; Taylor
1986), anthropology (Eliade 1954), theology (Trompf 1979), geology (Gould 1987),
astrophysics (Morris 1984; Hawking 1988), philosophy of science (Kuhn 1970; Zalt-
man etal. 1982) and, of course, history itself (Toynbee 1954; Modelski 1978; Kennedy
1988),
 The Wheel ofRetailing Theory 141

This cyclical conceptualization of time ("time's cycle"), in addition, has received

more than a modicum of support from some of the giants of western philosophy—
Nietzsche, Hegel, Lasaulx, Vico, Machiavelli, Folybius, Plato etc, not to mention its
total dominance of non-western traditions of thought (Trompf 1979; Bebbington
1979; Shallis 1983; Whitrow 1988). True, the linear view of time ("time's arrow") may
dominate Judeo-Christian philosophy, albeit subsequently secularized with the idea
of progress substituting for the eschaton (Bury 1960; Bultmann 1975; Gould 1987),
but altemative conjectures of change and the nature of dme retain a powerful almost
primordial appeal, not least for the retailing community. Who among us has not
heard the time-worn retailers' refrain, "this business goes in cycles" or "there's
nothing new in retailing"?
In addition to its academic and philosophical pedigree, the wheel of retailing owes
much of its enduring appeal to the fact that it is a singularly vivid metaphor.
Metaphorical thinking, after all, is absolutely central to the process of theory
articulation and development and, moreover, our very understanding of the world
(Boyd 1979; Kuhn 1979; Lakoff and Johnson 1980; Gooper 1986; Leary 1990). How-
ever, as a consequence of the dominance of logical positivism, which considers
metaphor to be "deviant and parasitic" (Ortony 1979, p. 2), marketers have been
slow to appreciate the significance of figurative modes of thought. By the same
token, the recent reduction in the pre-eminence of positivism and the advocation of
alternative philosophical perspectives (eg Hirschman 1986; Anderson 1983, 1986)
has led to a growing awareness of marketing metaphors, of which the wheel is a
particularly compelling example (Rosenberg 1984; Arndt 1985). Careful analysis
shows that not only does it contain overtones of the Graeco-Roman "wheel of
fortune", particularly in the implication that the managerial sloth of the maturity
phase is a harbinger of decline, but it also manages, remarkably, to integrate the
notions of recurrence (time's cycle) and progression (time's arrow). This, according
to Gould (1987), is the most powerful form of temporal metaphor, or, as Arnold
Toynbee (1959, p. 210) once put it when discussing the cyclical and linear modes of
historical explanation, "it may be that the two views are not fundamentally irrecon-
cilable. After all, ifa vehicle is to move forward . . . it must be bourne along on wheels
that turn monotonously round and round".

Weaknesses

Set against its undoubted strengths, the wheei theory suffers from several signifi-
cant shortcomings, principally its lack of universality. As noted earlier, the concept
only refers to a single aspect of change, the price-quality continuum, and it thus
ignores the other equally dynamic dimensions of retailing such as merchandise
assortments, store size and so on. What is more, the low cost-trading up pattern
does not apply to every retailing institution, especially those in the developing
world. The latter, in fact, is usually portrayed as the Achilles' Heel of the wheel
theory.
Closer inspection, however, reveals that these developing world exercises are not
without their weaknesses. In the first instance, they have been almost entirely
concemed with (supermarket) technology transfer rather than indigenous retailing
development. Buckiin (1986), by contrast, has shown how periodic markets in Asia
have become more sophisticated through time, in line with the wheel theory.
Secondly, they ignore the fact that institutions evolve as they spread out from their
142 Stephen Brown

point(s) of origin. Thus, by the time they arrive in the developing world they are
more likely to be in the high margin, service orientated stage of the cycle than the cut
price, no frills inception phase. It is arguable therefore, that if anything, their high
cost entry proves rather than disproves the wheel of retailing theory. Thirdly, by
emphasizing the institutions' appeal to high income groups in the host nation, these
studies suffer from a misconception about the nature of the original operations.
Contrary to widespread belief, many (conforming) retailing innovations in the
western world, such as the department store, discount house and catalogue show-
room, did not owe their initial success to the custom of low income consumers
(Fennance and Yamey 1955; Jung 1961; Gross 1964; Dardis and Skow 1969; Sewall
and Goldstein 1979).
Deficient though these developing world studies may appear to be, even the most
adamant advocate of the wheel would doubtless concede that the concept is not
comprehensive. Granted, its most trenchant proponents might feel compelled to
point out that few, if any, marketing theories are complete representations of the
phenomena they purport to explain. Such a defense however, overlooks one of the
most important lessons of the history of science—that it is a theory's very lack of
universahty which provides the stimulus for subsequent research (Kuhn 1970;
Feyerabend 1988). In other words, all of the ensuing attempts to "retread, rebalance
and realign" the wheel (D'Amico 1983, p. 160), to apply it in a wide range of
geographical settings, and to develop alternative conceptualizations of change, stem
directly from the lacunae left by the original model.
Despite the wheel's catalytic capacity and the voluminous literature it has gener-
ated, it is not an exaggeration to state that the theory remains unproven. Many of the
contributors to this conceptual genre have preferred to devote their energies to
esoteric elaborations of the model rather than empirical investigations of its validity.
The supporting "evidence" is often little more than casual observation at best or idle
speculation at worst. Admittedly, much of the criticism of the wheel is equally
anecdotal and indeed, some widely cited "refutations" are based on decidedly shaky
foundations. Goldman (1975), for instance, drew much of his evidence from the
history of a single department store and Savitt's (1984) attempt at quantification,
while interesting, addressed issues that are not central to the wheel theory. Never-
theless, it is fair to conclude that much of the research on retail change is character-
ized by an absence of systematic study (Savitt 1989). With some noteworthy excep-
tions (eg Martenson 1981; Bucklin 1983), the bulk of the literature has been
descriptive rather than analytical, though this should perhaps be regarded more as
an opportunity for further research activity than a condemnation of past practice.
Another frequently aired shortcoming of the wheel theory is its supposed vague-
ness and lack of clarity. Such criticisms, however, are difficult to reconcile with
McNair's original propositions, which were succinct, striking and quite specific. As
Goldman (1975, 1978) points out, moreover, the theory is readily distilled into
testable hypotheses. The ambiguity, rather, appears to stem from the ensuing
literature which has elaborated, but also partially obscured, the nature of the
conceptualization. In fact, some recent invocations of the wheel seem to describe a
pattern of development that is only distantly related to the original model (e.g. May
1989).
Besides the barnacles of history, the wheel's much touted vagueness is a conse-
quence of the lack of consensus on the concept's domain. The wheel and its
derivatives have been applied at all manner of analytical scales ranging from
 The Wheel of Retailing Theory ] 43

departments within department stores and individual retailing firms, to the evolu-
tion of national retail systems and, of course, variously defined "institutions".
Although this is partly attributable to the lack of data on retail institutions, especially
at the early stages of evolution, and a lack of national and intemational agreement on
what exactly constitutes a supermarket, department store etc, the uncertainty over
the wheel's domain remains a major shortcoming, albeit one that is shared by several
analagous theories, such as the PLG, and moreover the marketing concept itself.
If the clarity of the wheel has diminished somewhat with the passage of time, the
same can no longer be said for its scholarly status. Once derided for its failure to
attain the formal criteria for "theory", the latter-day challenges to the ascendancy of
positivism have enhanced the standing of marketing metaphors in general and the
wheel of retailing in particular (Sheth et al. 1988). Metaphorical thinking, however, is
not without its weaknesses. In particular, it can result in a suppression of some
aspects of the (figurative) relationship and an overemphasis of others (Black 1979;
Lakoff and Johnson 1980; Zikmund 1982). In the case of the wheel metaphor, one's
attention is invariably drawn to the institution itself and the immutability of the
pattern of change, rather than the environmental, competitive and decision making
processes which give rise to the evolutionary cycle. By thus emphasizing—albeit
unintentionally—certain aspects of institutional change, the wheel theory has
incurred charges of rigidity, determinism and historicism (Kumcu 1987).
A final and perhaps the most disconcerting side effect of the wheel theory is its
almost subliminal implication that high status, high price, high service strategies are
the refuge of moribund retailers, and conversely, that a cut price, bare bones
approach is the hallmark of active, energetic organizations."* It would, of course be
ridiculous to blame retailers' oft derided obsession with cut prices (and appalling
service) upon the wheel theory. After all, numerous studies have show n that "price "
and "image" orientated strategies can be equally successful (Hirschman 1978; Porter
1980,1985; Bucklin 1983; Davies and Brooks 1989). Nevertheless, such is the pervasi-
veness of the wheel metaphor that it can only have served to reinforce retailers
traditional preoccupation with price cutting.

Future Prospects
Its undoubted weaknesses notwithstanding, the wheel of retailing theory is highly
unlikely to disappear from the academic agenda. On the contrary, the wheel v«ll
almost certainly continue, perhaps forever, to bestride retailing research. The simple
fact of the matter is that the constantly changing retailing environments of the
developed and developing worlds, and the periodic emergence and diffusion of
innovative retail institutions, are sufficient to ensure that the wheel will continue to
roll for as long as scholars take an interest in the evolution of retailing or until such
time as they invent a better metaphor of change.
It is arguable, however, that if further progress is to be made on retail institutional
change, as opposed merely to adding to the already bulging bibliography, a re-
orientation of future research effort is required. In fact, some commentators have
contended that conceptual advances will only be attained by wiping the slate clean
and starting again (Savitt 1989). Understandable though this attitude is in the light of
the esoteric theorizing and preoccupation with pattern that sometimes seems to
prevail in this area of scholarly endeavour, this call is unlikely to b>e heeded by the
academic community. After approximately 60 years of research, the wheel is too
144 Stephen Brown

firmly entrenched to be lightly abandoned. What is more, enough is already known

about institutional change to develop an integrated model of retailing evolution. As
illustrated in Figure 3, such a model must firstly, embrace the environmental
circumstances which give rise to the initial breakthrough, sustain the institution and
set limits on its development; secondly, incorporate the competitive context—inter-
type followed by intra-type—which drives the evolution of the innovation and all
affected organizations and, thirdly, depict the changing nature of the institution, in
terms of its range of merchandise, pricing and service policies and geographical
extent, as it progresses through its evolutionary cycle.
Formulation of a comprehensive model of retail institutional change is insufficient
in itself however. It must be tested in a variety of spatial settings, in the developing
world in particular, albeit with due regard to the hitherto neglected issues of
indigenous development, geographical diffusion and technology transfer (Kacker
1988). Furthermore, rather than rely upon unreliable data on costs and margins, it
may be necessary to employ alternative criteria, such as market-to-book ratios (Kerin
and Varaiya 1985) or, if one accepts May's (1989) and Siewers and Yudelson's (1985)
interpretations of "costs" in consumer rather than financial terms, the results of
survey research exercises.
Yet even if such a model could be developed and tested, another important issue
concerns the subject matter of the analysis. Retailing institutions have long been the
traditional, though by no means the only, focus of academic attention, but the
associated definitional problems are such that it may be more appropriate to concen-
trate upon the evolution of individual retailfirms.Given the imitative nature of the
retailing industry, the undoubted managerial and strategic insights that might
accrue from such studies (Omura 1986; Dodge and Deiderick 1988), the fact that a
substantial amount of "institutional" research has drawn heavily upon the experi-
ences of individual firms (Goldman 1975; Savitt 1984) and, perhaps most import-
antly, the wealth of untapped bibliographical material that already exists on retail
organizations (Goodall 1987; Becker and Larson 1987), the firm specific approach
appears to offer the greatest potential for future research activity.
Some final points worth exploring in some detail are the factors which give rise to
the trading up phenomenon. It seems remarkable that in the 30 years since Hoi-
lander's (1960a) celebrated critique of the wheel theory very few additions to his
inventory of causes have appeared (Table 1). Bucklin (1983), admittedly, demon-
strated the importance of rising labour costs, several authors have warned of the
ossifying effects of scientific management systems (Dickinson 1983; Dawson and
Burt 1987), and Berens (1980) has posited an undercapitalization hypothesis, which
maintains that the cut price, no frills ethos of fledgling retail institutions is a result of
necessity rather than desire on the part of the tyro merchant prince. Nevertheless, it
is surprising that the majority of ensuing commentators have plumped for one or
more of Hollander's original causes of the wheel pattern, even those, such as the
malign influence of suppliers, which he considered somewhat implausible. As with
the applicability of the wheel theory itself, it is clear that more, and more detailed,
research is necessary.

Conclusion
In the 60 years since its publication, the wheel of retailing theory has generated an
enormous amount of research and not a little controversy. Yet despite its acknow-
 The Wheel of Retailing Theory 145

ledged inadequacies and numerous attempts to write if off, the wheel continues to
dominate retailing research. Indeed, a recent but influential analysis of marketing
thought concluded that as the wheel is one of the few theories that our discipline can
claim to have originated, it "should be nurtured and developed rather than aban-
doned for borrowed concepts from economics, psychology, or sociology" (Sheth et
al. 1988, p. 187, 189).
This paper has summarized the extensive literature on retail institutional change,
using Ansoff's celebrated product-market matrix as a conceptual template. A simple
model which synthesizes the current state of knowledge on retail change was also
presented and an attempt made to account for the remarkable pervasiveness of the
wheei theory. Although the latter is partly attributable to its pedagogic utility and
the fact that it has a modicum of empirical support, the wheel's primacy is primarily
due to its reliance upon an ancient and powerful metaphor. Metaphorical thought,
however, disguises as much as it illuminates and it is arguable that too much
scholarly attention hitherto has been devoted to the patterns rather than the pro-
cesses of retailing change. The wheel of retailing is unlikely to be abandoned, but if it
is is to be "nurtured and developed", as Sheth et al. (1988, p. 187) recommend, a
reorientation of research effort is required.
Tbe future research agenda, it is argued, should forsake the institutional focus that
has prevailed until now and concentrate instead upon the evolution of individual
retailing organizations. This will not only increase our understanding of the nature
and causes of retailing change and how it varies from firm to firm and sector to
sector, but the readily available source material renders analysis relatively straight-
forward. A meaningful synthesis with the much-vaunted models of strategic man-
agement, small business development and so on, may also emanate from such an
approach. Most importantly perhaps, by adopting the firm specific standpoint we
may, at last, be able to provide practising managers with more practical insights than
the hackneyed aphorisms ("the only constant in retailing is change" etc) that have
been offered to date.

Notes
By en-iphasizing innovation, upgrading and the organizational ossification that presages decline,
Porter's (1990) hypothesis is very reminicent ofthe wheel of retailing theory.
" There has been considerable debate about the origins of the wheel of retailing theory. Although
McNair's 1931 paper was the first to describe the pattern in a retailing context the notion oi cyclical
changes in marketing phenomena was circulating soipewhat earlier stiJI in the guise of the style of
fashion cycle (Cherington 1924; Tosdal 1925; Nystrom 1928) and Kleppner's (1925) advertising "spiral"
(see Muhs 1985). It is impossible, however, to overlook the intellectual climate of the 1920s which was
created by the enormously influential work of Oswald Spengler (1923), a German historian who
advocated an immutable life cycle of civilizations. A similar, and equally influential, view of world
history was put forward by Arnold Toynbee (1959) in the 1950s, the era that witnessed the full flowering
of the wheel theory. Indeed, it is noteworthy that in his celebrated critique of the wheel of retailing,
Hollander (1960a) refers—in true Toynbeean fashion—to the rise and decline of civilizations.
' Consider, for example, Dreesman's (1985, p. 148) comments,
"the wheel of retailing... looks somewhat like a relay race, in which muscled and fit new retailing forms
take over the torch of price competition from older and tired forms. They run their round, only to arrive
at the exchange point fatter and tired, where they hand over their torch again to younger runners,
newer retailing forms".
146 Stephen Brown

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