Homework1 HANY
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sabhari_ramHomework1 HANY
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sabhari_ramHomework #1 - - DUE: Tuesday, September 24 (in class) September 17, 2019
Name:
1. A coin is tossed 4 times. We use H to denote heads and T to denote tails.
(a) Write down the elements of the sample space.
(b) Assume that the coin is fair. Compute the probabilities for each of the following events.
• Event A : Number of times the coin came up heads is 0.
• Event B : Number of times the coin came up heads is 1.
• Event C : The first two tosses came up heads.
• Event D : Number of times the coin came up heads is greater than 1.
(c) Answer YES or NO to the following questions:
• Are the events A and B mutually exclusive? . . . . . .
• Are the events B and C mutually exclusive? . . . . . .
• Are the events C and D mutually exclusive? . . . . . .
(d) Compute the probability P (A ∪ D).
(e) Compute the probability P (C ∪ D).
2. Let S be the sample space of all houses in zip code 02115. You are also given the events:
• A = Houses built after 2000
• B = Houses with a 2-car garage
• C = Houses with lead-based paint
P (A) = 0.1, P (B) = 0.6, P (C) = 0.6, P (A ∩ C) = 0, P (A ∩ B) = 0.1 and P (B ∩ C) = 0.4.
(a) Compute the probability P (A ∩ B ∩ C). Hint: A ∩ B ∩ C = (A ∩ C) ∩ B
(b) Compute the probability P (A ∪ B ∪ C).
(c) Using rules of probability and the probabilities you’ve been given above, show that it is not possible to
find a house in this zip code built after 2000 that doesn’t have a 2-car garage.
Hint: First write this event as an intersection of two other events or their complements.
3. Five cards are chosen at random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. In how many ways is it possible to get
the following results?
(a) How many ways is it possible to choose 4 tens?
(b) How many ways is it possible to choose no spades?
(c) How many ways is it possible to choose exactly 1 spade?
(d) How many ways is it possible to choose at least 1 spade?
(e) How many ways is it possible to choose 3 diamonds, 1 spade, and 1 club?
4. A teacher has 15 calculators of which 5 need to be recharged. She does not realize this and selects 5 at
random to take to a special tutoring session.
(a) In how many ways can her selection include exactly 3 calculators that need to be recharged?
(b) In how many ways can her selection include at least 4 calculators that do not need to be recharged?
(c) What is the probability that her selection includes at least 1 calculator that needs to be recharged?
5. Three friends John, Bob and Sally each decide to go skiing on the same day without knowing the other two
are going as well. John is going to decide between resorts A, B and P. Bob is going to decide between resorts
A, S or P. Sally is going to decide between resorts S or A. All possible outcomes are equally likely.
(a) Draw the tree diagram showing all possible outcomes for the day (the sample space).
(b) What is the probability that at least two of them decide to go the same resort?
(c) What is the probability that all three friends end up going to three different resorts?
Now a fourth friend, Samuel, decides to go skiing on the same day as well. He is going to decide between
resorts C, D, A or S.
Answer the following based on the four friends going skiing.
(d) How many possible outcomes are there now? Answer without drawing a tree.
6. Find P (A ∩ B) if P (A) = 0.2, P (B) = 0.4, and P (A|B) + P (B|A) = 0.75.
7. The number of barefaced lies, s, that a certain politician tells during a news conference is described by the
probability function s
1
P (s) = k , s = 0, 1, 2, 3.
3
(a) Find k.
(b) What is the probability that he tells at least two lies given that he tells at least one?
8. Brett and Margo have each thought about murdering their rich Uncle Basil in hopes of claiming their in-
heritance a bit early. Hoping to take advantage of Basils predilection for immoderate desserts, Brett has
put rat poison into the cherries flambe, Margo, unaware of Bretts activities, has laced the chocolate mousse
with cyanide. Given the amounts likely to be eaten, the probability of the rat poison being fatal is 0.60;
the cyanide, 0.90. Based on other dinners where Basil was presented with the same dessert options, we can
assume that he has a 50% chance of asking for the cherries flambe, a 40% chance of ordering the chocolate
mousse, and a 10% chance of skipping dessert altogether. No sooner are the dishes cleared away than Basil
drops dead. In the absence of any other evidence, who should be considered the prime suspect?
9. Let S represent the sample space of all automobiles produced in company X’s manufacturing plant. Lets also
define the following events:
• A = Exterior color black, B = Exterior color silver, C = Automatic transmission,
D = Manual transmission
We are give the following probabilities: P (A) = 0.65 and P (B) = 0.25, P (C) = 0.7 and P (B ∩ C) = 0.09.
You are told that events A and B are mutually exclusive. Similarly, a car can’t have automatic and manual
transmission at the same time so C and D are mutually exclusive as well. Furthermore, you are told that
events C and D form a partition of the sample space.
(a) Compute the probability P (A ∪ B)?
(b) Compute the probability P ((A ∪ B)0 ).
(c) Compute the probability P (B ∩ D).
(d) Compute the probability P (D).
10. Given that P (A) + P (B) = 0.9, P (A|B) = 0.5, and P (B|A) = 0.4, find P (A).
