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Answer Sheet To Prob 2

This document contains solutions to problems from Problem Set 2 on probability, random variables, and sampling distributions. 1. The first problem calculates the probability that prisoner A will survive if he swaps fate with prisoner C, given that the warden told prisoner A that prisoner B will be executed. This probability is calculated to be 1/3. 2. The second problem shows that if events A and B are independent or related in certain ways, the conditional probabilities P(A|B) and P(B|A) can be determined. 3. The third problem states that if events A and B are mutually exclusive, then they cannot be independent, since their intersection must be empty.

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Julian Baybayon
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58 views3 pages

Answer Sheet To Prob 2

This document contains solutions to problems from Problem Set 2 on probability, random variables, and sampling distributions. 1. The first problem calculates the probability that prisoner A will survive if he swaps fate with prisoner C, given that the warden told prisoner A that prisoner B will be executed. This probability is calculated to be 1/3. 2. The second problem shows that if events A and B are independent or related in certain ways, the conditional probabilities P(A|B) and P(B|A) can be determined. 3. The third problem states that if events A and B are mutually exclusive, then they cannot be independent, since their intersection must be empty.

Uploaded by

Julian Baybayon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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STATS 101

Solutions to Problem Set 2


Probability, Random Variables,
and Sampling Distributions

1. Let A be the event that prisoner A is pardoned


B be the event that prisoner B is pardoned
C be the event that prisoner C is pardoned
W be the event that warden tells prisoner A that prisoner B will be executed
Then P (A) = P (B) = P (C) = 13 , however P (W ) isn’t given to us.
First, we need to find P (W ). Note that W can be split into 3 mutually exclusive
events, which are: 1.) warden tells prisoner A that prisoner B will be executed and
governor pardons A, 2.) warden tells prisoner A that prisoner B will be executed
and governor pardons B, and 3.) warden tells prisoner A that prisoner B will be
executed and governor pardons C. In notations, 1.) P (W ∩ A), 2.) P (W ∩ B), and
3.) P (W ∩ C)
P (W ∩ A) = P (W |A)P (A) = 12 ( 13 ) = 16
P (W ∩ B) = P (W |B)P (B) = 0( 31 ) = 0
P (W ∩ C) = P (W |C)P (C) = 1( 13 ) = 13
1 1 1
Thus P(W) = 6
+0+ 3
= 2
We want to find the probability that A will survive if he swaps fate with prisoner
C knowing that the warden revealed to prisoner A that prisoner B will die. This is
the same as getting P (C|W ).

Note: W can be divided into 3 mutually exclusive events, one where A is executed,
one where B is executed, and one where C is executed. This will be useful when
eval
P (C ∩ W )
P (C|W ) =
P (W )
P (W |C)P (C)
=
P (W )
1
’
1( 3 )
= 1
2
2
=
3

1
2. If P (B) = 1 then P (A|B) = P (A)
Using the theorem of total probability, P (A) = P (A|B)P (B) + P (A|B C )P (B C )
P (A) = P (A|B)(1) + P (A|B C )(0), thus showing that P (A|B) = P (A)

P (A)
If A ⊂ B, then P (B|A) = 1 and P (A|B) = P (B)
P (B∩A) P (A)
P (B|A) = P (A)
= P (A)
=1
P (A∩B) P (A)
P (A|B) = P (B)
= P (B)

P (A)
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P (A|(A ∪ B)) = P (A)+P (B)
P (A∩(A∪B)) P (A)
P (A|(A ∪ B)) = P (A∪B)
= P (A)+P (B)

3. If A and B are m.e., they cannot be independent:


If A and B are m.e., then A ∩ B = φ, but in order for two events to be independent,
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B). But since A and B has no intersection, then P (A ∩ B) = 0,
but P (A) > 0, P (B) > 0, so this create a contradiction. Thus A and B cannot
be independent in A and B are mutually exclusive. (Use reverse reasoning for the
other item).

4. Let X be the number of correct answers out of 20 items, then X ∼ Bi(n = 20, p =
1
4
).
To find P (X ≥ 10) = P (X = 10) + · · · + P (X = 20) = 20
P
x=10 P (X = x).

20
 x
where P (X = x) = x
p (1 − p)20−x plugging in the appropriate values.

5. P (|X̄ − µ| < 1.5) = 0.95 (verbalising this: we want to find the sample size needed
so that our estimate of mu is at most off by 1.5 units with 95% probability). Note
2
that via central limit theorem, X̄ ∼ N(2, 6n ), and therefore we have this:
!
−1.5 X̄ − µ 1.5
P (−1.5 < X̄ − µ < 1.5) = P < < = 0.95
√6 √6 √6
n n n
!
−1.5 1.5
=P <Z< = 0.95
√6 √6
n n

Is the same as (please visualize this so you know how to move to the next step)
 
−1.5
P Z < √6 = 0.025
n

P (Z < −1.96) = 0.025

−1.5
And thus, we know that √6
= −1.96, thus n = 61.4656, but there is no such thing
n
as 61 people and .4656, thus we round this up to 62 (due to the fact that more
information is captured when we increase the sample size).

6. Let X be the monthly income of households coming from an exclusive subdivision


2
in metro manila. Via CLT, we know that X̄ ∼ N(200000, 150000
100
). Simply compute
for P (X̄ > 250000) (I know you can do this!)

2
7. Let X be the weights of female adultsP(in lbs). X ∼ N(120, 102 ). Then via CLT,
2
X̄ ∼ N(120, 10
25
). We want to find P ( 25
i=1 Xi > 2875). Dividing both sides by 25,
we get P (X̄ > 115). The rest of the solution is left to you! I know you can do this
already!

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