25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

The crisis of Pakistan’s out-of-school children

Citation

Alif Ailaan. 2014. 25 million broken promises: the crisis of Pakistan’s out-of-school children.
Islamabad: Alif Ailaan. x+70 pp.

ISBN 978-969-23023-0-2
 contents

contents
Acronyms and Abbreviations vi
Foreword and Acknowledgments vii
Executive Summary ix

1. Introduction 3
1.1 Methodology 4
1.1.1 Limitations 5

2. Assessing the damage 9

2.1 Estimates of out-of-school children 9
2.1.1 National Education Management Information System (NEMIS) 10
2.1.2 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLMS) 11
2.1.3 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 12
2.1.4 Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 13
2.1.5 UNESCO Education For All Global Monitoring Report 13
2.2 Why 25 million is the best estimate 14
2.3 National estimates 14
2.4 Provincial and regional estimates 15
2.5 District-level estimates 17

3. Portraits of a broken promise 19

3.1 Gender 19
3.2 Area of residence (urban/rural) 21
3.3 Household income 21
3.4 Age 22
3.5 Previous schooling 23
3.6 Reasons for not attending school 24
3.6.1 Debunking the cultural myth 25
3.6.2 Quality of schooling and instruction 25

4. Promise interrupted 27
4.1 Calculating the number of dropouts 27
4.1.1 Survival rate 27
4.1.2 Dropouts from one class to the next 28
4.1.3 Enrolment rates from the PSLMS 30
4.2 Why children drop out 31

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

5. Renewing the promise 33

5.1 Article 25-A 33
5.2 National Plan of Action 2013 33
5.3 Transforming decision making with data in the Punjab 34
5.4 The re-energisation of an education narrative in KP 35
5.5 Tackling a legacy of neglect in Sindh 35
5.6 A major new push for education in Balochistan 35
5.7 The 4% of GDP promise 36

6. Getting there 39

References 41

Annex 1: The Case for 100% Enrolment 43

A1.1 Constitutional obligations (Article 25-A) 43
A1.2 International commitments 44
A1.3 National commitments: political manifestos 46
A1.4 Provincial enrolment campaigns 50

Annex 2: District-level estimates of OOSC 51

Annex 3: heat maps 59

A3.1 Percentage of out-of-school children between the ages of 5 and 16 years 59
A3.2 Percentage of out-of-school girls between the ages of 5 and 16 years 60
A3.3 Percentage of children between the ages of 5 and 16 who have
never attended school 61
A3.4 Percentage of girls between the ages of 5 and 16 who have
never attended school 62
A3.5 Percentage of students (5-16 years old) attending government school (province) 63
A3.6 Percentage of students (5-16 years old) attending government school (district) 64
A3.7 Percentage of students (5-16 years old) attending private school (province) 65
A3.8 Percentage of students (5-16 years old) attending private school (district) 66
A3.9 Net enrolment at the primary school level (age 5-9 years) 67
A3.10 Net enrolment at the middle school level (age 10-12 years) 68
A3.11 Net enrolment at the high school level (age 13-14 years) 69

iv
 contents

Tables
Table 1.1: Proportion of private school enrolment at the primary level as shown
in NEMIS and PSLMS data 6
Table 2.1: Publicly available sources of data on the number of OOSC in Pakistan 9
Table 2.2: Estimates of OOSC using various data sources 10
Table 2.3: NEMIS enrolment figures 11
Table 2.4: Trends in the proportion of OOSC by gender and province (PSLMS) 12
Table 2.5: PDHS data on OOSC by region, 2012-13 12
Table 2.6: ASER data on OOSC by gender and region, 2011-13 13
Table 2.7: National estimates of OOSC by level 15
Table 2.8: Estimates of OOSC by region 16
Table 3.1: Distribution of OOSC by gender 19
Table 3.2: Gender distribution of OOSC by region 20
Table 3.3: Number of OOSC by area of residence 21
Table 4.1: Dropouts between Class 1 and Class 2 28
Table 4.2: Government school enrolment by year and class (2002-03 to 2011-12) 29
Table 4.3: Difference in enrolment between primary, middle and high school 29

Figures
Figure 2.1: Enrolment and OOSC by school level 15
Figure 2.2: Percentage of OOSC by region 16
Figure 2.3: Distribution of OOSC by region 17
Figure 3.1: Distribution of OOSC by gender 20
Figure 3.2: Proportion of OOSC by gender and region 20
Figure 3.3: Percentage of OOSC within various income groups 21
Figure 3.4: Distribution of OOSC by household income 22
Figure 3.5: Percentage of OOSC by age 22
Figure 3.6: Percentage of OOSC by history of previous schooling 23
Figure 3.7: Percentage of OOSC by province and history of previous schooling 23
Figure 3.8: Reasons for not attending school 24
Figure 4.1: Survival rates upto Class 5 by region 28
Figure 4.2: Net enrolment by level and gender 30
Figure 4.3: Net enrolment by level and province 30
Figure 4.4: Reasons for dropping out of school 31

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Acronyms and abbreviations

18th Amendment Constitution (Eighteenth Amendment) Act 2010
AEPAM Academy of Educational Planning and Management
AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir
ASER Annual Status of Education Report
EDO executive district officer
EFA Education For All
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
GB Gilgit-Baltistan
GDP gross domestic product
GER gross enrolment rate
ICT Islamabad Capital Territory
ITA Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
MDG Millennium Development Goals
NEMIS National Education Management Information System
NER net enrolment rate
NGO non-governmental organisation
NIPS National Institute of Population Studies
OOSC out-of-school children
PDHS Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey
PMIU Programme Monitoring and Implementation Unit
PSLMS Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey
UN United Nations
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

vi
 Foreword and Acknowledgements

Foreword and acknowledgements

Bismillah irr Rahman irr Raheem.

This study was prepared by Saman Naz and Firuza Pastakia, both core staff
members at Alif Ailaan. It was enabled by formal and informal feedback from
a range of academics, government officials, representatives of non-profits and
NGOs, and other friends of the campaign.

The most important input to this document is from a set of unsung heroes in
Pakistan’s public sector. The two key data sets from which education data are
derived are the National Education Management Information System (NEMIS) and
the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLMS). The first
is produced by education department officials at the district, province and federal
levels, and the second by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. The data collectors,
data entry operators, statisticians and data analysts who work in the Pakistani
public sector are among the most undervalued and underutilised resources
available to the Pakistani people. Their work is often ignored by policy makers
and their efforts are largely unrecognised.

This report is entirely a product of their labours and their dedication to their jobs.
They represent a fundamental and irreplaceable link within the value chain of
public-sector service delivery. This document is a tribute to their efforts, and it is
intended to make their work more visible and relevant to the Pakistani discourse.
The suggestions contained herein are meant to place the work of Pakistani data
collectors, data entry operators, statisticians and data analysts at the heart of
the service delivery debate. Until the political conversation in Pakistan does not
become more dependent on accurate and timely data, none of the aspirations of
the people can truly be met.

Many experts were requested to provide feedback on the draft version of this
document, and almost all responded with deep, rich and valuable insights and
comments. We are particularly grateful for the advice received from Fasi Zaka,
Director Communications, British Council, on how we present our findings.
Ameena Ghaffar-Kucher, Senior Lecturer and Associate Director, International
Educational Development Program, University of Pennsylvania Graduate School
of Education, and Irfan Muzaffar, Education Research Coordinator, Education
and Social Research Collective, challenged some of the underlying assumptions
they found in the draft, which we tried to minimise in the final version. One of
Alif Ailaan’s closest and most vocal supporters, Baela Raza Jamil, Director
Programmes Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi, offered brilliant feedback and corrected
mistakes for us. Shakeel Ahmad, Policy Specialist, United Nations Development
Programme; Maqsood Sadiq, Senior Programme Officer, Population Council; and
Minhaj ul Haque, Consultant, The World Bank, were instrumental in providing us
confidence in the numbers we used and the calculations we made. Javed Malik,
Education Adviser, UK Department for International Development, helped us
understand the strong progress made in Punjab and the importance of taking
into account the often unaccounted growth of the private-sector provision of
education. M. Nazir Mahmood, Development Consultant, M&E and Education

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Management, offered insights on a range of issues that were valuable to the

final output. Umair Javed, Doctoral Candidate, Department of Sociology, London
School of Economics, and Mariam Chughtai, Doctoral Candidate, Harvard
University Graduate School of Education, provided important feedback from an
academic perspective and helped us locate this report in the larger context of
academy and scientific inquiry. Finally, Afzal Latif, Secretary, Elementary and
Secondary Education Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, offered
wise counsel and helped us meet the appropriate balance between our analysis
and our activist zeal.

This study is an effort to demonstrate the value of investing in more and better
data for Pakistan’s children. There will be strong views about the methodology we
chose, but we have tried to present other options as well. We hope to inspire a
discussion about the use of data in education policy and what the data actually
mean. We hope readers will be moved to establish contact with us, whether
they are in deep agreement with how we have gone about this report, or deep
disagreement.

We hope that the four provincial governments will respond to the data in this
report, and we expect that these responses will be informed by the same instinct
that inspired us to prepare this study—that we owe every Pakistani child a fair
chance at a quality education.

Mosharraf Zaidi
Campaign Director
Alif Ailaan

viii
 Executive Summary

Executive summary
Article 25-A of the Constitution of Pakistan makes free and compulsory education
the fundamental right of every Pakistani child. The country is also a signatory to
various treaties and international commitments related to universal education but
progress towards meeting this goal has been painfully slow.

Following the enactment in 2010 of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution,

legislative and executive powers related to school education have been devolved
to the provinces. They are required to enact legislation for free and compulsory
education as an important initial step towards ensuring that every Pakistani child is
in school. The onus is now on the provinces to make this possible.

Publicly available sources for education statistics are marred by inconsistency,

methodological problems and sampling issues. As a result, it is impossible to
determine with statistical certainty the exact number of out-of-school children
(OOSC) in Pakistan. At the provincial and regional level, the task of calculating the
number of OOSC is even more difficult in the absence of reliable and consistent
subnational-level data.

This study attempts to address some of these problems. Using publicly available
sources of information to calculate the number of OOSC, this study goes on
to explore what the data tell us about Pakistan’s school-going population and,
importantly, about those children who are not in school.

Our analysis reveals that 25.02 million Pakistani children between the ages of 5 and
16 are deprived of their right to an education. Among children of primary-school-
going age, almost one in every five is not in school and this proportion increases
at higher levels of education. By region, the province of Balochistan is home to
the highest proportion of OOSC, followed by the Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA). In terms of overall distribution, meanwhile, more than half of the total
number of OOSC are in Punjab.

Of the 25.02 million OOSC, more than half are girls. The data also reveal vast
regional disparities in providing equal opportunities for schooling to girls, with the
greatest disparity in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). For both girls and
boys, access to schooling is more difficult in rural areas and the gap widens at
higher levels of education. Similarly, children from the poorest families are more
likely to be out of school compared to their counterparts belonging to richer families.

While making sure that children who are enrolled remain in school is a concern
across the country, our analysis reveals that the majority of OOSC are children who
have never seen the inside of a classroom. Nevertheless, retention is a gauge of
the quality of education and the data show that across the country almost half of
all children enrolled in Class 1 either drop out, transfer to a private school or repeat
at least one year during the first five years of schooling. A significant proportion of
students also drop out at higher levels of education, with three times more children
enrolled in the first five years of school (Class 1-5) compared to the next five years
(Class 6-10). One of the major reasons for both boys and girls dropping out, as
reported by parents, is that children themselves are unwilling to continue schooling.

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Some steps have been taken to address Pakistan’s OOSC problem. Article 25-A of
the Constitution, which promises every child a free education, is a good start. The
federal government’s National Plan of Action, presented in 2013, aims to achieve
91% net primary enrolment by 2016. The establishment of the Punjab government’s
Programme Monitoring and Implementation Unit (PMIU) in 2003 has helped local
governments in that province focus on fixing tangible problems instead of trying to
solve large-scale macro issues that are difficult to monitor. In KP, with a new political
party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in government, a powerful push from the
top levels of the provincial education department has been made and education
has become an issue of debate in KP’s political discourse. The Pakistan People’s
Party (PPP) government in Sindh has also taken a step forward by terminating the
contracts of unqualified teachers in an effort to improve the standard of education
in the province. Meanwhile Balochistan, under the leadership of Chief Minister Dr
Malik Baloch, has earmarked nearly 30% of its education budget for development
expenditure in the financial year 2013-14, the highest proportion of development
expenditure among all the provinces, a move which bodes well for improving both
access to education and the quality of education. Another positive step is the
federal government’s commitment to raise spending on education from the current
share of roughly 2% of GDP to 4% of GDP by 2018.These measures represent a
good start in getting Pakistan’s OOSC into school.

But these positive beginnings are nowhere near enough. The country’s top-level
leadership needs to obsessively pursue a better future for Pakistani children. The
buck stops at the prime minister’s office and it is only when this agenda is driven
from that office that we can succeed.

To get Pakistan’s 25.02 million OOSC into school, a concentrated and coherent
Pakistan-owned, Pakistan-led, Pakistan-driven process of reform is required.
Politicians must generate a national narrative for education, establish clear and
ambitious targets, and transform the data regime to pave the way for a determined
leadership to address an issue on which the future of 200 million people depends.

x
 Introduction

1 Introduction
Article 25-A. Right to education

The State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to
sixteen years in such manner as may be determined by law (Constitution of the Islamic
Republic of Pakistan 1973).

Pakistan is morally, politically and, most of all, legally obligated to provide a

quality education to every child in the country.1 Expressing a commitment to
education has become a universal platitude in Pakistan. No one denies the
challenges our children face inside and out of school, and all politicians and
decision makers express a commitment to solve the problem. But there is no
agreed official figure for the total number of out-of-school children (OOSC) in the
country. It is said that ‘If you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it’. Pakistan has
been and will continue to be nowhere near achieving the universal enrolment that
the Constitution promises our children for exactly this reason.

Depending on which data set is used, estimates for how many children between
the ages of 5 and 16 are out of school range from 8.82 million to a staggering 25.02
million (see Table 2.1). A difference of 16.2 million between these two estimates
is no small rounding error. It is a shameful situation that begs the attention of
Pakistan’s political class, the media and civil society—but like so many other
Pakistani problems, it is neglected. This neglect has widespread implications.

The absence of consensus on a national figure for OOSC is largely a result

of the fact that no such figures are collected or collated at the lower tiers of
government (the provincial and district levels). Reliable and consistent figures
are a prerequisite to deploying the appropriate resources to address issues in the
delivery and quality of education. At the very minimum, and as a crucial first step,
it is essential to estimate the number of children who need to be educated.
This report is an attempt to stimulate debate about Pakistan’s failure to act on
the promise of providing education for all its children as articulated in Article
25-A of the Constitution. It is also an attempt to challenge the complacency of

1 See Annex 1 for a detailed discussion on Pakistan’s constitutional, international and political
commitments related to enrolment and universal education.

3
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

governments (both federal and provincial) in their use of unreliable data regimes
in education. While it is unlikely that this report will produce national consensus on
the best estimate of OOSC in Pakistan, it is our hope that it will serve to initiate a
conversation to help get us there.

Some context for the policy domain into which this report is being released:
to begin with, there is no central authority responsible for education policy
and management across the country. Following the 18th Amendment to the
Constitution of Pakistan, enacted in 2010, the provinces are responsible for
matters related to schooling in their jurisdictions. This should have allowed
education policy and management to cater more effectively to the needs of the
country’s diverse geographical areas as well as its many ethnic and linguistic
communities. In practice, devolution of authority under the 18th Amendment has
not yet effectively addressed the gaps in service delivery, especially in education.
This should not be seen as a failure of the theory that inspired devolution but
rather as an important issue for Pakistani federalists to consider. Effective service
delivery is an urgent need in and of itself, as well as in service of the construct of
the Pakistani federation.

Besides devolving powers to the provinces, the 18th Amendment introduces

a new Article, 25-A, which declares free and compulsory education to be the
fundamental right of all Pakistanis between the ages of 5 and 16. Implementing
the provisions of Article 25-A is the responsibility of the provinces. The provinces
have been slow in developing the necessary laws and mechanisms to enforce
the right to education. It took three years for Sindh to enact legislation on the
subject, and four years for Balochistan and Punjab to do the same, while Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has yet to pass a law providing for free and compulsory
education. At this rate, Pakistan is unlikely to reach the goal of 100% enrolment for
decades to come.

The absence of reliable measures of OOSC adds to these political and legal
challenges: we do not know the scale of the problem to be solved. There is
no government agency or non-government entity that collects and publishes
rigorous, credible, consistent and reliable data on the state of education in
Pakistan. No single source covers the entire country, and none of the available
data sets include the range of data points necessary to enable an accurate
calculation of the number of OOSC in Pakistan.

We must consider the challenge of enrolling every Pakistani child in school, and
the task of quantifying that challenge, within this context.

1.1 Methodology
For the purposes of our study, two data sources are combined to calculate an
estimate of the number of OOSC in Pakistan. Figures for enrolment are taken from
the most recently available National Education Management Information System
(NEMIS) data, which is for the year 2012-13. The total number of children between
the ages of 5 and 16 is extracted from projections for the year 2014 provided by
the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS).

4
 Introduction

Population projections are available by age group, while data on enrolment is

gathered by school level, not age. The calculations made in this study combine
the two data sets, based on the assumption that children enrolled in primary
school are between the age of 5 and 9 years, those in middle school are aged
10-12 and children in high school are 13-14 years old, while children in higher
secondary school are between the ages of 15 and 16. This assumption is not
without risks. We know, for example, that a fair number of older children are still
enrolled in primary school. However, this approach is the best possible one, given
the limitations of available data.

Data on the characteristics of OOSC and the number of children who have never
been to school are taken from the household-based Pakistan Social and Living
Standards Measurement Survey (PSLMS) for the year 2012-13.

1.1.1 Limitations
Given the issues with data collection in Pakistan generally, and particularly related
to education, there are limitations to the figures used in this study that need to be
addressed.
In the absence of a recent population census, projections for the year 2014
from NIPS, an official government source, are used. These projections are
based on the last population census, conducted in 1998.
The most recent official enrolment figures, from the NEMIS census, are
available for the year 2012-13. These figures represent the picture on the
ground when the data was collected, which in this case was October 2012.
The population projections against which these figures are compared are for
the year 2014. This gives rise to a discrepancy that needs to be considered
in assessing this data.
NEMIS, which is the principal source of our enrolment data, only conducts a
census of government schools. NEMIS enrolment figures for private schools
are based on projections from the 2005 National Education Census that
covered all educational institutions in the country, including government and
private schools.2 As a result, there are concerns that NEMIS’s estimates of
private school enrolment are significantly lower than the current situation
on the ground. In Punjab, for example, a recent survey commissioned by
the provincial government reveals that private schools account for 48% of
enrolment at the primary level, while according to NEMIS and PSLMS this
figure is 43% and 39%, respectively. If similar discrepancies exist for NEMIS
data at the national level, it is likely to have an impact on our estimate of the
number of OOSC. It is possible that our methodology, because it uses official
government data, underestimates the contribution of the private sector to
total enrolment.
For the purposes of this study, it is assumed that children enrolled in primary
school are between the ages of 5 and 9 years, those in middle school are

2 The National Education Census (NEC) 2005 covers 245,682 institutions including public and private
schools, colleges and universities, professional institutions, vocational and technical institutions,
mosque schools, madrassas, non-formal basic education centres, distance learning centres and
special education institutions.

5
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

10-12 years old, the age for high school is 13-14 years and children in higher
secondary school are between 15 and 16 years old. In fact there is likely to
be some variation in the age of the children enrolled in each of these levels
as evident from the difference between the gross enrolment rate (GER) and
the net enrolment rate (NER).3 For instance, PSLMS 2012-13 shows that the
NER at the primary level (5-9 years old) is 57%, compared to a GER of 60%
for the same level.
NEMIS only collects and reports enrolment at the grade or class level, and
not by the age of the student. This means that we must assume certain age
brackets for each grade or class. From the difference between the NER and
GER, we can assume that there is variance in the age of students in each
grade or class. We also know that in Pakistan there is a tendency for older
children to be enrolled in a lower grade or class in relation to their age. The
impact of this discrepancy is that the enrolment figures we use are likely to
underestimate the number of OOSC between the ages of 5 and 16.
NEMIS is government data, compiled and submitted by head teachers of
government schools. As such the data may be prone to reporting bias, which
could in part be the result of a lack of capacity within provincial education
departments to report accurately.
Our figures for enrolment are taken from NEMIS, which includes information
from the annual census of government schools but uses projections for
enrolment in private schools based on the National Education Census of
2005. A comparison of private school enrolment projections used by NEMIS
and figures from the household-level PSLMS survey shows that there is not
much difference between the two data sets in terms of the share of private
school enrolment at the primary level (see Table 1.1).

Table 1.1: Proportion of private school enrolment at the primary level as shown in NEMIS
and PSLMS data

PSLMS NEMIS
Province
Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total

Balochistan 2.7 22.2 8.8 6.5 27.4 13.5

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 24.9 50.4 29.2 16.6 48.6 22.1

Punjab 30.7 58.7 39.2 33.1 63.0 42.9

Sindh 5.7 61.7 33.3 4.2 59.4 29.7

National 24.3 57.4 35.1 23.0 59.1 35.0

Source: PSLMS 2012-13, NEMIS 2011-12

3 The net enrolment rate (NER) is the total number of students in the theoretical age group for a
given level of education enrolled in that level, expressed as a percentage of the total population in
that age group. The gross enrolment rate (GER) is the number of students enrolled in a given level
of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the official school-age population
corresponding to the same level of education.

6
 Introduction

Another concern with NEMIS enrolment figures is that students who are
counted as enrolled may have dropped out of school prior to the school
census but remain registered as enrolled in school records. If these numbers
are included, NEMIS data on OOSC are once again a slight underestimate.
Article 25-A does not specify whether the Constitutional obligation to provide
free and compulsory education ends at high school (Class 10) or includes
higher secondary schooling (Classes 11 and 12). In calculating the number
of OOSC between the ages of 5 and 16, the inclusion of higher secondary
education may lead to an overestimate of the total number of OOSC because
the data show a far higher proportion of OOSC at this level (84.8%).

Given these limitations, some calculations performed in this study underestimate

the number of OOSC while others result in a slightly higher estimate. Used
together, we believe these figures provide the fairest possible assessment of the
total number of OOSC in Pakistan.

7
 Assessing the Damage

2 Assessing the damage

2.1 Estimates of out-of-school children

An estimate of the number of out-of-school children (OOSC) in Pakistan can be
derived from a variety of data sources (see Table 2.1). Each data set has its own
limitations (see Table 2.2). This section introduces the available data sources,
assesses their merits and demerits, and uses these sources to calculate the
estimated number of OOSC in Pakistan. This exercise highlights the difficulty,
given the current data regime, of determining with any accuracy the number of
children in Pakistan who need to be brought into the schooling system.

Table 2.1: Publicly available sources of data on the number of OOSC in Pakistan

Database/
Type of data Source Publishing authority Coverage
data set
NEMIS School census District, provincial Academy of Educational All government schools;
and federal Planning and Management estimates for private
governments (AEPAM), Government of schools
Pakistan

PSLMS Household Federal government Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Survey of households;

survey (PBS), Government of no schools
Pakistan

Population Population Federal government National Institute of Population Estimate of population

projections estimate Studies(NIPS), Government of
Pakistan

PDHS Household Federal government NIPS, Government of Pakistan Survey of households;

survey no schools

ASER Household and Non-governmental Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi Survey of households;

school survey organisation government and private
schools

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Table 2.2: Estimates of OOSC using various data sources

Latest data OOSC estimate

Database/
available Number Key merits Key limitations
data set %
(year) (in millions)

NEMIS 2012-13 25.02 47.3 Government data Enrolment for private

School census schools based on
Provides yearly data projections
Annual data from 1992
onwards
Covers all geographic
regions

PSLMS 2012-13 16.19 30.6 Government data Does not cover FATA
Household survey Data collected for
Information on enrolment AJK and GB but not
in government and private analysed or released
schools Sample survey
Historic annual data since
2002*

PDHS 2012-13 19.42 36.7 Government data Only three rounds are
Robust sampling available
methodology Does not provide
Household survey district-level estimates
Information on enrolment Does not cover AJK
in government and private
schools

ASER 2013 8.82 22.3 (rural) Historic annual data since Non-government data
8.5 (urban) 2008 Sample survey
Household survey Does not provide
Information on enrolment representative estimates
in government and private of urban areas
schools
Covers all geographic
regions
Timely availability of data

* PSLMS is available for the following years: 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2011-12 and 2012-13.

The sections below use data from different sources to estimate the number of
OOSC in Pakistan. The total number of children between the ages of 5 and 16
years is based on population projections for the year 2014 from the National
Institute of Population Studies (NIPS). According to NIPS projections, there are
currently 52.91 million children in Pakistan between the ages of 5 and 16 years.

2.1.1 National Education Management Information System (NEMIS)

The National Education Management Information System (NEMIS) consists of
federal government data collected from all government schools. It is consolidated
at the district and provincial level, and collated at the national level by the
Academy of Education Planning and Management (AEPAM), part of the federal
Ministry of Education, Trainings and Standards in Higher Education. Historical
data in NEMIS go back to 1992 and cover all regions and territories of the country
(the four provinces along with AJK, FATA, GB and the ICT).

10
 Assessing the Damage

NEMIS provides school enrolment figures by both grade and level of education.
NEMIS enrolment data are collected through a census. The advantage of using
these figures is that, as census data, they are free of sampling biases.The main
disadvantage of using NEMIS is that the school census is only conducted in
government schools and enrolment figures for private schools are based on
projections from the 2005 National Education Census that covered all educational
institutions in the country, including government and private schools.

According to enrolment data from NEMIS, there are currently 27.89 million children
between the ages of 5 and 16 years enrolled in school (Table 2.3). This means that
of the total 52.91 million children between 5 and 16, 25.02 million are out of school.

Table 2.3: NEMIS enrolment figures

Level Enrolment 2010-11 Enrolment 2011-12 Enrolment 2012-13

Primary 16,894,233 17,567,581 17,574,849

Middle 5,576,434 5,952,831 6,119,197

High 2,568,728 2,691,595 2,835,326

Higher secondary 1,145,549 1,251,787 1,356,825

Total enrolment 26,184,944 27,463,794 27,886,197

Source: NEMIS 2012-13, 2011-12, 2010-11

2.1.2 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey

(PSLMS)
The Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLMS) is
conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan, on an
annual basis. One of the advantages of PSLMS is that, as a sample household
survey, it takes into account enrolment in both government and private schools.
But it fails to cover all areas of the country: PSLMS does not provide data on AJK,
GB and FATA.4 As a sample survey it is also prone to sampling errors.

The latest round of the PSLMS shows that 30.6% of children between the ages
of 5 and 16 are out of school, which amounts to 16.19 million children (see Table
2.4). There is a difference of 8.96 million between NEMIS estimates and those
calculated using PSLMS data. According to PSLMS figures, the number of OOSC
shows a small but steady decline over the last three years, from 33% in 2010-11 to
31% in 2012-13.

One reason for the difference between PSLMS and NEMIS estimates could be
that PSLMS considers children attending madrassas to be in school whereas
NEMIS only takes into account formal schooling. However, according to PSLMS
2012-13, just 2% of children between the ages of 5 and 16 attend madrassas,
which does not account for the entire difference.

4 Data on the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) are not collected. Data on Azad Jammu and
Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) are collected but not analysed or released.

11
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Table 2.4: Trends in the proportion of OOSC by gender and province (PSLMS)

OOSC, 5-16 years (%)

Province 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Boys Girls Both Boys Girls Both Boys Girls Both

Balochistan 35 65 48 34 62 46 35 62 46

KP 20 45 32 18 42 30 17 41 28

Punjab 25 33 29 22 32 27 23 30 26

Sindh 32 47 39 34 46 40 32 46 39

Pakistan 27 40 33 25 38 31 25 37 31

Source: PSLMS 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13

2.1.3 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS)

The Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) is a national-level
representative household survey conducted by the National Institute of Population
Studies (NIPS), Government of Pakistan. Along with demographic and health
data, the PDHS also covers schooling and educational attainment among the
sampled households.

One of the major limitations of the PDHS is that it is not carried out on a regular
basis. Since its launch, there have been only three rounds of this survey (1990-91,
2006-07 and 2012-13). The PDHS does not provide data on AJK.

The latest round of the PDHS, for 2012-13, shows that 36.7% of children between
the ages of 5 and 16 are out of school, amounting to 19.4 million children (see
Table 2.5).

Table 2.5: PDHS data on OOSC by region, 2012-13

OOSC, 5-16 years (%)

Province/
territory Urban Rural Overall

Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total

Balochistan 30.8 38.4 34.4 49.7 63.5 56.2 46.0 58.4 51.8
GB 24.6 30.9 27.9 36.6 42.0 39.1 34.8 40.1 37.3
ICT 13.5 17.6 15.6 18.0 21.2 19.6 15.4 19.0 17.2
KP 23.4 35.2 29.0 31.3 48.7 39.5 30.0 46.5 37.8
Punjab 22.6 22.0 22.3 30.6 35.4 32.8 28.2 31.2 29.6
Sindh 28.2 29.7 28.9 56.6 75.9 65.6 44.5 54.9 49.5
Pakistan 24.7 26.2 25.4 36.8 47.3 41.7 33.2 40.6 36.7

Source: PDHS 2012-13

12
 Assessing the Damage

2.1.4 Annual Status of Education Report (ASER)

The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) is published by the Idara-e-
Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA), a non-governmental organisation. Like the PSLMS,
ASER is a sample household survey. As such, one of its major merits is that it
takes into account enrolment in both government and private schools. It is also
comprehensive in its geographic scope, covering all provinces and territories.
ASER is a citizen-led survey, however, and only provides an indicative picture. In
addition, its findings are more representative of rural Pakistan, since only 6% of
the overall sample is drawn from urban areas.5

The latest round of ASER, for the year 2013, shows that 22.3% of children
between the ages of 5 and 16 in rural areas and 8.5% in urban areas are
out of school, which amounts to a total of 8.8 million children (see Table 2.6).
There is a difference of 16.2 million between the estimate derived from ASER
and calculations using NEMIS data. The ASER survey results show that the
percentage of OOSC in rural areas rose from 21.5% in 2011 to 24.5% in 2012
before falling to 22.3% in 2013.

Table 2.6: ASER data on OOSC by gender and region, 2011-13

OOSC, 5-16 years (%)

Province/
territory 2013 2012 2011
Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total

AJK 5.2 6.2 5.6 7.4 9.4 8.3 9.0 13.9 11.2

Balochistan 29.1 49.4 36.7 24.3 56.1 37.0 19.8 36.3 25.5

FATA 13.5 41.3 22.6 17.3 45.6 27.0 18.4 42.6 26.6

GB 12.8 25.6 18.3 15.2 21.4 17.9 21.3 31.1 25.2

ICT 6.6 7.9 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.0 3.8 4.9 4.2

KP 9.7 24.5 15.1 12.3 28.4 18.2 11.0 23.7 15.9

Punjab 13.6 18.9 15.9 13.7 20.3 16.5 13.5 20.8 16.6

Sindh 23.5 39.3 29.8 27.2 41.8 33.1 25.3 38.2 30.5

National (rural) 17.3 30.0 22.3 18.0 34.0 24.5 17.0 28.1 21.5

National (urban) 8.0 9.3 8.5 7.3 8.6 7.9 18.3 23.5 20.4

Source: ASER 2011, 2012, 2013

2.1.5 UNESCO Education For All Global Monitoring Report

The Education For All Global Monitoring Report 2013-2014, prepared by the
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO),
provides an estimate of the number of OOSC in Pakistan between the ages of
5 and 9 years, covering primary schooling alone. This is in keeping with the
requirements of the Millennium Development Goals related to achieving universal

5 According to PSLMS 2012-13, 38% of Pakistan’s population currently lives in urban areas.

13
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

primary education (Goal 2). According to UNESCO, 5.44 million Pakistani children
between the ages of 5 and 9 years are out of school.

UNESCO figures are not suitable for the purposes of our study since we focus on
the educational attainment of children between the ages of 5 and 16 years. This is
in accordance with the Constitutional obligation set out in Article 25-A to provide
free and compulsory education to all children between the ages of 5 and 16.

2.2 Why 25 million is the best estimate

After assessing the merits and demerits of the multiple data sources and
statistical methods available to calculate the number of OOSC in Pakistan, we
elected to use NEMIS data, according to which there are currently 25.02 million
children between the ages of 5 and 16 out of school. Our reasons for choosing
NEMIS and the figure of 25 million are as follows:
NEMIS represents official government data on all government schools.
NEMIS provides yearly national, provincial and district-level enrolment
figures, which are not provided by any other source.
NEMIS covers the entire country, providing data for all four provinces as well
as AJK, FATA, GB and ICT.
Using government data allows us to initiate a debate about the scope and
accuracy of the government data regime.
Of all the available data sets, NEMIS has the widest historical reach,
providing data at the school level from as far back as 1992.
NEMIS calculations generate the highest estimate of the total number of
OOSC. Given the gravity of the problem, we must err on the side of caution
and not risk adopting a lower estimate.
NEMIS consists of census data and, as such, there is no risk of sampling
bias. This means that NEMIS data should be more representative than survey
data which are based on sampling.
Finally, NEMIS is considered to be the gold standard for assessing public-
sector education delivery in Pakistan.

2.3 National estimates

The last national population census in Pakistan was conducted in 1998. As a
result, all demographic calculations for subsequent years must use population
projections based on the 1998 census. For the purpose of our study, we have
used projections for the year 2014 provided by the federal government’s National
Institute of Population Studies (NIPS). According to NIPS projections, there are
currently 52.91 million children in Pakistan between the ages of 5 and 16. Among
this group, our calculations show that only 27.89 million children attend an
educational institution (government or private), leaving 25.02 million children out
of school.

14
 Assessing the Damage

There are currently 5.1 million children of primary-school-going age out of school
(see Table 2.7). This amounts to nearly one in every five children (22.5%) in this
age group. More worrying, the percentage of OOSC increases dramatically
beyond the primary level. At the higher secondary level, for example, the
percentage of children out of school is as high as 85%. In fact, the percentage of
children in school falls as the level of education rises (see Figure 2.1).

Table 2.7: National estimates of OOSC by level

Age group Population Enrolment OOSC

Level
(years) (2014) (2012-13*)
Number Percentage
Primary 5-9 22,670,715 17,574,849 5,095,866 22.5

Middle 10-12 12,781,300 6,119,197 6,662,103 52.1

High 13-14 8,520,866 2,835,326 5,685,540 66.7

Higher secondary 15-16 8,934,989 1,356,825 7,578,164 84.8

5-16 years 52,907,870 27,886,197 25,021,673 47.3

Source: NEMIS 2012-13; NIPS population projections for 2014

Figure 2.1: Enrolment and OOSC by school level

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and NIPS population projections for 2014

2.4 Provincial and regional estimates

Provincial and regional estimates for the number of OOSC are shown in Table
2.8. In absolute terms, Punjab has the highest number of OOSC (13.1 million),
followed by Sindh (6.2 million). Even in the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), there
are 48,792 children out of school, which amounts to nearly one in six children in
the nation’s capital.

15
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Table 2.8: Estimates of OOSC by region

Population
Province/territory In school Out of school OOSC (%)
(5-16 years)

AJK 1,143,830 656,637 487,193 42.6

Balochistan 2,685,897 909,960 1,775,937 66.1

FATA 1,271,543 484,590 786,953 61.9

GB 347,159 180,458 166,701 48.0

Islamabad 311,633 262,841 48,792 15.7

KP 7,151,781 4,692,324 2,459,457 34.4

Punjab 27,858,607 14,759,437 13,099,170 47.0

Sindh 12,137,421 5,939,950 6,197,471 51.1

Pakistan 52,907,870 27,886,197 25,021,673 47.3

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and Population Projections by NIPS

In terms of percentages, Balochistan has the highest proportion of OOSC

(66.1%), followed by FATA (61.9%), where nearly two out of every three children
receive no education (see Figure 2.2). Overall, Islamabad has the lowest
proportion of OOSC (15.7%), followed by GB (48.0%) and KP (34.4%).

The distribution of OOSC in the provinces and territories is shown in Figure 2.3.
More than half of the total number of OOSC are in Punjab (52%), followed by
Sindh (25%) and KP (10%).

Figure 2.2: Percentage of OOSC by region

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and Population Projections by NIPS

16
 Assessing the Damage

Figure 2.3: Distribution of OOSC by region

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and Population Projections by NIPS

2.5 District-level estimates

District-level numbers of OOSC cannot be calculated because reliable population
projections at the district level are not available. It is, however, possible to
estimate the proportion of OOSC at the district level using PSLMS 2012-13
sample survey data. A detailed table showing the district-level proportion of
OOSC between the ages of 5 and 16 years is given in Annex 2. It is worth noting
that the PSLMS only provides data for the four provinces (114 districts).

17
 Portraits of A Broken Promise

3 Portraits of a broken promise

This chapter aims to develop a profile of OOSC in Pakistan, assessing variables
such as gender, age, area of residence, history of schooling and socio-economic
background.

3.1 Gender
Data on enrolment across Pakistan show that 15.9 million boys between the age
of 5 and 16 are enrolled in school, compared to just 11.9 million girls. As a result,
13.7 million girls and 11.4 million boys are out of school (see Table 3.1). Of the
total number of girls aged 5-16, 53% are out of school, compared to 42% of
boys in the same age group. Of the total number of OOSC, the majority are girls,
comprising 55% of the total (see Figure 3.1).

Table 3.1: Distribution of OOSC by gender

Population Number enrolled in Number out of OOSC

Gender
(5-16 years) school school (%)

Boys 27,319,127 15,949,829 11,369,298 41.6

Girls 25,588,743 11,936,368 13,652,375 53.4

Total 52,907,870 27,886,197 25,021,673 47.3

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and population projections from NIPS

There are vast regional disparities in providing girls equal opportunities for
schooling. With the exception of the ICT, across the country the proportion of
out-of-school girls is higher than that of boys. The greatest disparity can be seen
in the province of KP where half of all girls are out of school, compared to just
20% of all boys. This is followed by FATA, where 78% of girls are not in school,
compared to 47% of boys (see Table 3.2 and Figure 3.2). The situation is similar in
AJK, with 45% of girls and 40% of boys out of school.

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Figure 3.1: Distribution of OOSC by gender

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and population projections from NIPS

Table 3.2: Gender distribution of OOSC by region

Province/ Population (5-16 years) In school Out of school

territory Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls

AJK 586,611 557,219 351,512 305,125 235,099 252,094

Balochistan 1,427,049 1,258,849 558,562 351,398 868,487 907,451

FATA 650,833 620,710 346,313 138,277 304,520 482,433

GB 178,816 168,342 102,489 77,969 76,327 90,373

ICT 162,264 149,369 131,010 131,831 31,254 17,538

KP 3,683,815 3,467,966 2,947,573 1,744,751 736,242 1,723,215

Punjab 14,287,430 13,571,177 8,022,972 6,736,465 6,264,458 6,834,712

Sindh 6,342,308 5,795,112 3,489,398 2,450,552 2,852,910 3,344,560

Pakistan 27,319,127 25,588,743 15,949,829 11,936,368 11,369,298 13,652,375

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and NIPS population projections for 2014

Figure 3.2: Proportion of OOSC by gender and region

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and population projections from NIPS

20
 Portraits of A Broken Promise

3.2 Area of residence (urban/rural)

Population projections show that nearly 60% of children between the ages of 5
and 16 currently reside in rural areas. Area of residence has a serious impact on
a child’s access to education. Children living in rural areas are less likely to attend
school, especially at higher levels.

Of the total number of OOSC in Pakistan, 14 million reside in rural communities,

compared to 11 million who live in urban areas. Overall, a little more than half
(57%) of all OOSC in Pakistan live in rural areas (see Table 3.3).

Table 3.3: Number of OOSC by area of residence

Population Number enrolled in Number out of school

Area of Residence
(5-16 years) school

Rural 31,347,552 17,164,038 14,183,514

Urban 21,560,318 10,722,159 10,838,159

Total 52,907,870 27,886,197 25,021,673

Source: Alif Ailaan calculations based on NEMIS 2012-13 and population projections from NIPS

3.3 Household income

Household income and socio-economic background often determine whether or
not a family is able to send their children to school. But the data reveal that even
in comparatively rich families, around 1 in every 10 children is out of school. It
goes without saying that the number of OOSC increases as income levels fall.
Among children belonging to the poorest households, 57% are not in school
(see Figure 3.3). In other words, children from the bottom quintile of the income
spectrum in Pakistan are nearly 6 times more likely to be out of school than those
belonging to the top quintile.

The distribution of OOSC by household income is shown in Figure 3.4. Two out of
every three children out of school belong to poor families.

Figure 3.3: Percentage of OOSC within various income groups

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

21
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Figure 3.4: Distribution of OOSC by household income

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

3.4 Age
Nearly 31% of 5-year-olds in Pakistan are out of school but by the age of 6, this
figure drops to 22% (see Figure 3.5). This is likely to be a reflection of the fact
that many children enter school a year after the official age of enrolment. What is
more troubling is that the number of OOSC begins to rise sharply as the level of
education progresses so that by the age of 16 more than 55% of children are out
of school.

Among children of school-going age, the proportion of OOSC is lowest at

the ages of 8 and 10 (Figure 3.5). This once again highlights the issue that
many children enter school much after the age of 5, a problem that may in
part be owing to malnutrition and the resulting delays in mental and physical
development. The rise in the proportion of OOSC at the age of 9, meanwhile,
points to the problem of school dropouts at the end of primary schooling.

Figure 3.5: Percentage of OOSC by age

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

22
 Portraits of A Broken Promise

3.5 Previous schooling

The majority of children who are currently out of school have never seen the
inside of a classroom. Of the total number of OOSC, more than two thirds have
never been to school (see Figure 3.6). The remaining 30% are those who were
enrolled but dropped out. This shows that although the dropout rate is a serious
issue, enrolment remains the major challenge. The proportion of OOSC who have
never been to school is highest in Balochistan, followed by KP (see Figure 3.7).

Figure 3.6: Percentage of OOSC by history of previous schooling

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

Figure 3.7: Percentage of OOSC by province and history of previous schooling

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

23
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

3.6 Reasons for not attending school

Information in this section is taken from the PSLMS 2012-13, which records
responses provided by the head of the household. Although the responses here
fail to capture a host of issues that prevent children from attending school, they
present a snapshot of parents’ own perceptions and rationale for their children not
being enrolled.

Among girls the most frequently reported reason for not attending school (34%)
is their parents’ unwillingness to send them to school. Other reasons include the
cost of schooling, the location of the school (too far) and the child herself not
willing to attend. Among boys, the child’s unwillingness to attend school is the
most frequently reported reason (38%), followed by the cost of schooling.

Given that government schools charge no fees, the cost of schooling as reported
by the head of the household may refer to the cost of uniforms, stationery,
transport and other similar expenses.

Around 6% of boys and 3% of girls have never been to school because of illness
or because they are reported to be handicapped. The government’s failure
to cater to children with special needs is a demonstration of the inadequacy
of both the hardware of Pakistan’s education system, i.e. its school buildings
and classroom facilities, as well as the software of this system, i.e. teachers,
pedagogy and learning environment.

Figure 3.8: Reasons for not attending school*

*Multiple response categories.

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

24
 Portraits of A Broken Promise

3.6.1 Debunking the cultural myth

There is a tendency to generalise the restrictions that Pakistani culture imposes on
education, and particularly girls’ education, whether on the grounds of religious or
tribal traditions. Yet the evidence for such claims is extremely thin. There are specific
regions where social constraints prevent schooling but this represents a small share
of national aggregates for enrolment, and especially girls’ enrolment, which indicate
a failure to supply services rather than society’s failure to demand them.

One example that sheds light on this issue is the disturbing finding from the
PSLMS 2012-13 that 33.6% of girls do not attend school owing to the lack of
parental consent (Figure 3.8). The assumption that parental consent is a cultural
factor is a construct that is not—and cannot be—proven. However an alternative
explanation, that parents do not want to expose young children, and especially
young girls, to the conditions prevalent in most government schools, can be
proven. The majority of government schools lack basic facilities such clean
running water, bathrooms and boundary walls. In far-flung rural areas, the long
journey to school is difficult if not impossible in the absence of safe and reliable
transportation. Out of the total 162,800 government educational institutions,
merely 61,376 cater to the needs of girls and young women.6

Rather than being seen as a cultural failure, it is important to recognise that this
is a failure of the state to provide the security and the requisite facilities so that
Pakistani parents can confidently send their children to school. In fact it should be
seen as a testament to the determination of Pakistani parents that they send 11.94
million of Pakistan’s daughters to school amidst the many risks involved.

3.6.2 Quality of schooling and instruction

Another major reason that 25 million children are out of school is the quality of
schooling and instruction. While it is critically important to provide education for all,
the fact is that those children who are in school receive an education of poor quality.

The ASER 2013 survey results show that half of all children in Class 5 cannot
read text meant for Class 2 students. Similarly, 57% of Class 5 students cannot
perform two-digit division taught in Class 3. The Punjab Examination Commission
and Sindh Achievement Test results also reveal poor learning outcomes among
school-going children.

Focus group discussions and anecdotal evidence indicate that enrolment and the
demand for schooling are adversely impacted by low-quality education. Elevating
the teaching profession, better preparing teachers to teach, strengthening school
leadership, improving content for learners so that it is relevant and interesting,
and most importantly, providing a school environment that is conducive to
learning are critical to increasing enrolment and cutting the number of OOSC in
the country.

6 The total number of government educational institutions is 162,800, and includes primary, middle,
high and higher secondary schools; intermediate colleges; and degree colleges. Of these, 101,424
are for boys, 61,269 for girls and women, and 107 admit both boys and girls (Pakistan Education
Statistics 2011-12).

25
 Promise Interrupted

4 Promise interrupted
While low enrolment is a matter of grave concern, the education system also
faces acute problems with respect to getting the children already in school
to continue their education. This chapter provides estimates for the number
of dropouts, examines regional disparities in dropout trends and explores the
reasons why children fail to complete schooling.

4.1 Calculating the number of dropouts

There are a number of ways in which the dropout rate can be calculated. Given
the absence of child-level data that would provide a more accurate picture, this
study uses a number of crude measures to arrive at a rough estimate of the scale
of the problem.

4.1.1 Survival rate

The survival rate is the most refined measure of the extent to which the school
system is able to retain pupils. Typically, the survival rate is calculated up to
Class 5.7 The figure is calculated by dividing the total number of pupils belonging
to a pupil cohort who have reached a specific level (for example, Class 5) by the
number of pupils in the original pupil cohort (those pupils who enrolled together in
Class1), with the result multiplied by 100.8 This indicator is typically derived using
a reconstructed student cohort flow model that takes into account the number of
repeaters and the number of students who have transferred.

At the national level, only 48% of children enrolled in Class 1 reach Class 5.
This means that almost half of all children enrolled in Class 1 either drop out,
transfer to a private school or repeat at least one year during the first five years of
schooling (see Figure 4.1).

7 In interpreting survival rates it is important to keep in mind the fact that in Pakistan this data set is
only available for government schools. As such, reported figures for children who have dropped
out also include those who have transferred from a government school to a private institution. At the
primary level, however, the proportion of such children is statistically negligible.
8 For example, the survival rate to Class 5 is the proportion of a cohort of pupils who reach Class 5,
expressed as a percentage of pupils enrolled in Class 1 of a given cycle in a given school year.

27
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Figure 4.1: Survival rates upto Class 5 by region

Source: Pakistan Education Atlas 2013

4.1.2 Dropouts from one class to the next

The number of children dropping out of school can also be derived by calculating
the difference in enrolment between two classes. The difference in enrolment
between Class 1 and Class 2 is shown in Table 4.1. As many as 521,921 children
drop out during or after the first year of schooling alone. At the national level,
this translates into one in every five children enrolled in Class 1 dropping out
before Class 2. Sindh has the highest dropout rate at this level (27%), followed by
Balochistan (23%).

Table 4.1: Dropouts between Class 1 and Class 2*

Number of dropouts Percentage of

Province Enrolment in Enrolment in
from Class 1 to Class dropouts from Class 1
Class 1 (2011) Class 2 (2012)
2 to Class 2

Balochistan 171,142 131,956 39,186 22.9

KP 529,853 439,046 90,807 17.1

Punjab 1,249,220 1,070,284 178,936 14.3

Sindh 783,070 570,078 212,992 27.2

Pakistan 2,733,285 2,211,364 521,921 19.1

* Enrolment figures for government schools only

Source: NEMIS 2011-12

Another method to calculate the number of dropouts is to follow the entire cohort
of children who enrol in Class 1 in a given year and follow them for several years.
Of the 2.8 million children enrolled in Class1 in the year 2002, only 0.7 million
entered Class 10 in the year 2012 (see Table 4.2). More than half of all children
enrolled in Class 1 dropped out by Class 5, and only 25% of these children
reached Class 10 after 10 years of schooling. The remaining 75% either dropped
out or failed a year and did not advance to the next class.

28
 Promise Interrupted

Table 4.2: Government school enrolment by year and class (2002-03 to 2011-12)

Class 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Class 1 2,833,726 2,765,496 2,961,794 3,259,707 3,301,859 3,360,331 3,057,422 2,938,554 2,818,892 2,898,600
100%

Class 2 2,172,693 2,119,625 2,285,173 2,553,646 2,650,980 2,637,982 2,647,889 2,569,032 2,441,965 2,354,007
75%

Class 3 1,889,439 1,950,152 1,991,846 2,141,114 2,245,671 2,296,332 2,332,203 2,356,791 2,263,498 2,129,287
70 %

Class 4 1,620,725 1,765,947 1,852,468 1,937,863 1,933,777 1,983,215 2,055,789 2,091,253 2,086,895 2,001,832
68%

Class 5 1,389,036 1,534,357 1,601,194 1,680,304 1,595,246 1,602,813 1,696,312 1,758,487 1,763,356 1,785,013
56%

Class 6 1,097,875 1,162,212 1,241,752 1,375,293 1,382,306 1,330,260 1,293,817 1,346,408 1,432,639 1,420,075
47%

Class 7 945,328 1,007,045 1,041,544 1,167,188 1,189,590 1,194,636 1,175,678 1,180,792 1,215,047 1,277,744
41%

Class 8 869,771 908,960 923,261 1,003,355 1,044,893 1,068,511 1,085,373 1,098,523 1,094,416 1,145,271
39%

Class 9 706,384 753,891 749,939 800,085 1,017,576 956,141 990,064 1,004,945 1,037,184 1,058,984
37%

586,789 635,655 651,950 555,380 712,479 734,243 738,014 737,817 718,945

Class 10 535,249
25%

Source: NEMIS 2011-12

The number of dropouts can also be estimated by comparing enrolment in

different levels of education. Table 4.3 compares enrolment in the first five years
of schooling (primary level) with the subsequent five years (middle and secondary
school). The comparison shows that across the country there are nearly three
times as many students in the first five years of school compared to the latter 5
years (15.4 million compared to 6.0 million). From the provincial comparisons
shown in Table 4.3 it may be inferred that Balochistan has the highest dropout
rate, as there are 5 times more children in primary school compared to middle
and secondary school in that province.

Table 4.3: Difference in enrolment between primary, middle and high school

Ratio of primary to
Enrolment at Enrolment at middle middle & secondary
Province
primary level & secondary level school enrolment

Balochistan 865,337 191,327 5:1

KP 3,130,137 1,087,243 3:1

Punjab 7,204,201 3,257,781 2:1

Sindh 3,151,595 1,097,438 3:1

Pakistan 15,370,649 6,002,673 3:1

Source: Pakistan Education Atlas 2013, NEMIS 2012-13

29
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

4.1.3 Enrolment rates from the PSLMS

The measures presented in the previous sections are based on enrolment data from
government schools alone. There are limitations associated with these numbers.
For example, given that enrolment figures for private schools are not available,
the figures do not take into account those children who drop out of a government
school to attend a private school. Similarly, the numbers do not take into account
those children who remain in school but do not progress to the next class.

Given these limitations, it is useful to calculate the dropout rate using the PSLMS
data set, which is based on a household sample survey and takes into account
enrolment in both government and private schools. Figure 4.2 shows that net
enrolment declines sharply as the level of education rises, from 57% at the
primary level to 22% at the middle level and as little as 13% in high school.
Differences in boys’ and girls’ enrolment are also evident. Similarly, at all levels of
schooling, there are wide variations between provinces (see Figure 4.3).

Figure 4.2: Net enrolment by level and gender

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

Figure 4.3: Net enrolment by level and province

Source: PSLMS 2012-13

30
 Promise Interrupted

4.2 Why children drop out

Information on why children drop out of school is taken from the PSLMS 2012-13,
which records responses provided by the head of the household.

Among both boys and girls, one common reason for dropping out of school is that
the child does not want to attend school. This is likely to be related to the quality
of the school environment, including factors such as the availability of facilities,
the use of corporal punishment and the teacher’s competence or behaviour
(Figure 4.4).

The major reasons for girls dropping out are parents needing help with work (29%)
and parents not allowing them to continue (27%). For girls, access is also an issue:
among boys, only 5% drop out because their school is too far, compared to 13% of
girls. Among boys, major reasons for dropping out include the child’s reluctance to
attend school (51%) and parents needing help with work (34%).

Figure 4.4: Reasons for dropping out of school*

* Multiple response categories. The category ‘other’ includes education completed, education not useful,
shortage of female teachers and lack of documents.
Source: PSLMS 2012-13

One of the principal challenges in retaining the children who have started school
is to make the experience of education worthwhile. Many children who enter
school are exposed to a classroom environment that is not conducive to learning,
with poor facilities, absent or incompetent teachers and the use of corporal
punishment. There is no doubt that all of these factors contribute to children
dropping out of school. In the absence of data on the subject, however, it is
impossible to quantify the scale of the problem.

31
 Renewing the Promise

5 Renewing the promise

Nearly half of all Pakistani children are out of school—25 million boys and girls
deprived of their right to an education.

Given the enormity of the problem, it is easy to give up hope. Pakistan’s

population is growing and, with it, the challenges this country faces are
multiplying. The provision of education is complicated by issues related to
language, religious values, urbanisation and, perhaps most importantly, the
role of the private sector. The problem of an illiterate, uneducated population
is exacerbated by the emergence of new challenges such as the increasing
impacts of climate change and the static tax-to-GDP ratio in the country.

Amidst this gloom, there are a number of developments that should give
us confidence that perhaps all is not lost. This chapter summarises these
developments.

5.1 Article 25-A

Article 25-A, which guarantees a free and compulsory education to all children
between the ages of 5 and 16, was introduced to the Constitution of Pakistan in
2010 as part of a package of substantive and wide-ranging Constitutional reform
enacted by means of the 18th Amendment. Progress on the implementation of
Article 25-A has been slow and there is little doubt that education features low on
the list of national political priorities. But the introduction of Article 25-A is proof
that the aspirations and orientation of the country’s leading political parties are not
misguided. They may not have the will or capacity to see through their promises
but Article 25-A is a good promise. Finding a way to make them fulfil this promise
is a longer and more complicated journey.

5.2 National Plan of Action 2013

The Government of Pakistan has prepared a consolidated National Plan of
Action that was presented at the 2013 UN General Assembly special session on
education. The target set out in the plan is to achieve 91% net primary school
enrolment by 2016, which amounts to 20 million children. (The National Plan of

33
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Action uses the 2011/2012 NER of 68% which amounts to 14.45 million children in
primary school.)

In absolute terms the National Plan of Action seeks to enrol an additional 6

million children into primary school. This is a bold effort to consolidate national
and provincial resources in aid of increased enrolment. The document has many
flaws, not least of which is its origins: it was prepared as part of the government’s
response to international pressure, especially from UN Special Envoy Gordon
Brown. In other words, it was not developed as a political response to domestic
pressure for an improved system of education. The National Plan of Action 2013
nevertheless represents a good start in getting Pakistan’s OOSC into school.

It is important to note that while this report estimates the number of OOSC
between the ages of 5 and 9 (primary school-going age) to be 5.1 million, the
Government of Pakistan’s National Plan of Action reports this figure to be 6.7
million.9 This suggests that our figure of 25 million OOSC between the ages of 5
and 16 is likely to be a conservative estimate.

5.3 Transforming decision making with data in the

Punjab
For several years, Punjab has been leading the effort for better governance in
public-sector education. Evidence of this can be seen in the significantly higher
scores Punjab receives in both government and non-government rankings and
assessments. At the heart of the improvements that Punjab has made are data
from the provincial government’s Programme Monitoring and Implementation Unit
(PMIU).

Originating as a donor-driven effort in 2003, the PMIU became central to reform

efforts in Punjab when education data began to drive decision making both in
the provincial capital of Lahore as well as in the districts. One crucial aspect of
this new initiative was the personal interest taken by the Chief Minister, who is
widely acknowledged to be focused on achieving quick results. The impact of his
interventions has been noticeable.

Approximately one year after adopting the new data system to inform decision
making, teacher absenteeism was cut by half. How was such dramatic
improvement possible in such a short time? Each month, District Commissioners
receive reports from the PMIU on education statistics in their districts. Instead
of a generalised snapshot, the PMIU data analysis teams provide each district
with specific data on the ‘big wins’. In other words, they highlight schools with
the most egregious problems which also have the highest number of students
or potential students. This way, local administrators are able to focus on fixing
tangible problems instead of struggling to resolve large-scale macro issues.
Perhaps most importantly, each month these efforts yield sufficient results for
local teams to feel a sense of accomplishment and renewed motivation. The PMIU
model has transformed decision making in Punjab. But this is a province of over
90 million people. Even fast-paced progress here will take years to translate into
widespread results.

9 National Plan of Action 2013, p. 14.

34
 Renewing the Promise

5.4 The re-energisation of an education narrative in KP

The 2013 general elections in Pakistan ushered a new political party into the
mainstream. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf came into power in KP and brought
with it an agenda for education reform. Given the severity of the education crisis
in the province, the new government struggled to find ways to affect meaningful
and immediate change. The appetite for change brought about a big new push
within the government to get things done. While progress has been slow, a
number of efforts have been launched to ignite change. The results are difficult to
verify but the energy in the province has produced a palpable sense of urgency.

An innovative programme, called Tameer-e-School, to top up public finances for

school facilities using private contributions has had mixed results. A powerful
push from the top levels of the provincial education department to cut down on
cheating in exams has been well received. The wholesale upgrading of school
furniture, overdue for many years, has begun. All in all, education has become an
issue of debate and discussion within KP’s political discourse, something that had
been missing for many years. The hope is that this will create the momentum for
substantial and wide-ranging reform in the years to come.

5.5 Tackling a legacy of neglect in Sindh

In 2013 the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the traditionally dominant party in
Sindh, lost the national election by a substantial margin but retained power in
the province. One of the key lessons for the party leadership was that without
improving the state of Sindh it would have no chance of a comeback at the
national level. The lesson seems to have been heeded. While Sindh continues to
face many challenges, there are signs that in education at least some important
and long-overdue lessons have been learnt. One is that substandard teachers
cannot deliver quality education.

Previous regimes in Sindh have hired political workers as teachers, a

longstanding patronage-based practice that has wreaked havoc on schools and
classrooms across the province. To address this problem, the Sindh government
has begun terminating the contracts of these unqualified teachers. The process
has been marked by controversy, with terminated employees demanding that
they be retained, and there is a degree of accommodation that the provincial
government will be required to make. Still, it takes a dramatic change in course
for a province like Sindh to attempt to correct the mistakes of the past. This is an
encouraging step, and one that will need to be accompanied by measures to
strengthen and sustain the effort through a range of other necessary interventions
and initiatives.

5.6 A major new push for education in Balochistan

In Balochistan, the 2013 general election brought about the first instance of a
middle-class Baloch assuming the office of Chief Minister. Dr Abdul Malik Baloch,
who leads a coalition government, has long been an advocate of education in his
province. In both budgets since he came to power, Balochistan has increased
the share of its total spending on education. In the 2013-14 budget, Balochistan
earmarked a higher proportion of the education budget for development
expenditure (29%) compared to any other province. In 2014-15, Balochistan

35
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

allocated an additional 16% of the provincial budget for education. The road to
improved access and quality education is still long and arduous for children in
Balochistan but, if the signals from the current administration are any indicator,
there is now a strong emphasis on education in the province.

5.7 The 4% of GDP promise

Another positive indicator is the government of Pakistan’s commitment to raise
spending on education to 4% of GDP by 2018. This commitment is not only
one that has been articulated in Pakistan Vision 2025 but also at the UN by
the Prime Minister of Pakistan. The 4% of GDP target will require a massive
increase in spending, given that the current share for education is roughly 2%. If
Pakistan succeeds in meeting this target, public-sector schools and education
departments across the country will experience an unprecedented flow of
financing that has the potential to produce a range of opportunities hitherto
unseen. More spending is of course no panacea for any problem but substantial
increases in spending are inevitable elements of any large-scale improvement
in education in Pakistan. Although the government still needs to announce the
incremental units of increase per year between now and 2018 to reach 4% of
GDP, the promise of 4% is a good start.

These examples represent an array of opportunities for education activists

and champions of change. They suggest that even though the challenge is
intimidating, there is a baseline of positive work, especially in government, that
can enable the creation of national momentum for change.

There are 25 million children in Pakistan today who are out of school. A
lamentation of the terrible state of affairs alone will not put these boys and girls
in school. These examples demonstrate that all is not lost, that the possibility of
change exists across all provinces, and that all political parties in power in the
provinces have an appetite for reform.

36
Renewing the Promise

37
 Getting There

6 Getting there
How do we get 25 million children into school? Clearly, by exploring every
available option. This includes government schools, non-formal education,
madrassas, NGO-run schools, low-cost private schools, medium- and high-cost
private schools, and any other means of delivering education.

In thinking about the range of instruments available, there is a critical element

of Article 25-A that requires consideration. Article 25-A qualifies the right to
education through two conditions: first, that education is free of cost; and second,
that education is compulsory. How a school is funded is not the subject of these
conditions; what Article 25-A requires is that access to education is free of cost
for any child between the age of 5 and 16.

There are other important considerations that need to be kept in mind. A large
share of the OOSC population is too old to be in primary school. These children
will require special measures to bring them into the school system. Similarly,
more than half of all OOSC are girls. For them to be in school it is essential for
parents and guardians to be confident that the school environment is safe and
healthy. With the bulk of Pakistan’s OOSC living in rural areas, it is important that
transportation networks are improved, allowing communities in far-flung areas to
send their children to school. The adoption of technology will also be necessary.
A range of innovations already exist and need to be scaled up.

All of this requires a concerted and coherent Pakistani-owned, Pakistani-led,

Pakistani-driven process of reform. Foreign donors can offer new technical ideas
and some modicum of additional financing but foreign donors cannot replace
Pakistani will and political agency for change.

The ultimate challenge for education in Pakistan is whether or not this country’s
political system cares about the future of the country. Thus far, while there are
reasons to be hopeful, the overwhelming evidence suggests we have some
distance to travel.

39
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

What can politicians do?

Generate a national narrative on education. This can only be achieved
through the top political leadership of the country, starting with the Prime
Minister. A national convention of Chief Ministers and leaders of all political
parties can be called to an extraordinary meeting of the Council of Common
Interests. In this meeting, the provinces may choose to establish a national
body to maintain a national data and monitoring mechanism that is financed
and run through a collective effort by the provinces. It is crucial that this be
attempted without any changes to the Constitution, as this entails a political
conflict of a completely different nature. Devolution empowers provinces
to decide for themselves how best to deliver services. Provinces can and
must learn to use that power separately and, in cases like education, which
represent a national emergency, also collectively.

Establish clear and ambitious targets. These can be set out in a political
manifesto, in the same vein as the Charter of Democracy. The National Plan
of Action is a document with little political ownership. Rather than imposing
this as the driving force of a national narrative on education, political leaders
need to evolve their own National Plan of Action. Ideally, the plan must entail
monthly and quarterly targets accompanied by the required financial outlays.
Provinces will need increased funding and the federal government, rather
than using the excuse of devolution and federalism, will need to find ways to
fund the pursuit of these targets.
Transform the data regime. You cannot fix what you cannot measure. National
education statistics are in a calamitous state of disrepair. Pakistan has no
official national statistics on the spread or growth of private schools or the
quality of education being provided to its children. Pakistan has no recent
census of all educational institutions, or of schoolchildren. Local governments
simply collect and transmit upward the data that go into NEMIS, the regime
for which was designed in the 1990s. No effort to fix the problem can be
transformational until it reflects the true picture on the ground, and this can
only be ascertained through a transformed data regime for education in
Pakistan.

The true task of transforming education in Pakistan is not as simple as the three
steps defined here. But these three steps constitute the kind of actions that a
determined and coherent leadership would take to start addressing an issue on
which the future of 200 million people depends.

The single most important node of leadership in this regard is the Prime Minister
of Pakistan. Without prime ministerial interest and follow-up, the scope and scale
of effort required to address Pakistan’s OOSC problem cannot be met.

Article 25-A of the Constitution is a promise to educate each and every boy and
girl in Pakistan. Every child who is out of school represents a broken promise.
Will Pakistan’s politicians, and in particular the Prime Minister, respond to this
challenge?

40
 References

References
Academy of Educational Planning and Management (AEPAM) and World Food
Programme (WFP). 2013. Pakistan Education Atlas 2013. Islamabad: Academy of
Educational Planning and Management (AEPAM), Ministry of Education, Trainings
& Standards in Higher Education Government of Pakistan.
Online interactive map at http://www.atlas.edu.pk.

Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA). 2014. Annual Status of Education Report,

ASER- Pakistan 2013. Lahore: South Asian Forum for Education Development
Secretariat, ITA.
Available online at http://www.aserpakistan.org/document/aser/2013/reports/national/ASER_
National_Report_2013.pdf.

International Crisis Group (ICG). 2014. Education Reform in Pakistan – Asia

Report No 257. Brussels: International Crisis Group.
Available online at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-asia/pakistan/257-education-
reform-in-pakistan.pdf.

Ministry of Education, Training & Standards in Higher Education, Government of

Pakistan. 2013. National Plan of Action to Accelerate Education-Related MDGs
2013-16, Achieving Universal Primary Education in Pakistan. Islamabad.
Available online at http://planipolis.iiep.unesco.org/upload/Pakistan/Pakistan_National_plan_of_
action_2013-2016.pdf.

National Education Management Information System (NEMIS). 2013. Pakistan

Education Statistics 2011-12. Islamabad: Academy of Educational Planning and
Management (AEPAM), Ministry of Education, Trainings & Standards in Higher
Education Government of Pakistan.
Available online at http://unesco.org.pk/education/documents/2013/pslm/Pakistan_Education_
Statistics.pdf.

National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) and Measure DHS, ICF

International. 2013. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012-13:
Preliminary Report. Islamabad: NIPS.
Available online at http://www.nips.org.pk/abstract_files/Priliminary%20Report%20Final.pdf.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). 2014. Pakistan Social And Living Standards
Measurement Survey 2012-13. Islamabad: Statistics Division, Government of
Pakistan.
Available online at http://www.pbs.gov.pk/sites/default/files/pslm/publications/pslm_prov_dist_2012-
13/front_page.pdf.

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. 2014. Teaching

and Learning: Achieving Quality for All (Education for All Global Monitoring Report
2013/4). Paris: UNESCO.
Available online at http://unesco.org.pk/education/documents/2014/launch_gmr/GMR_Summary.pdf.

41
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Party manifestos

Awami National Party. 2013. Intikhaabi Manshoor (Election Manifesto) 2013.

Available online at http://awaminationalparty.org/main/?p=4554

Jamaat-e-Islami. 2013. Manshoor Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (Manifesto of the

Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan).
Available online at http://www.scribd.com/doc/133606363/Manifesto-Jamaat-e-Islami-Pakistan.

Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (Fazal). 2013. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Pakistan - Manifesto

for Election 2013.
Available online at http://www.spopk.org/spo/images/downloads/codeconduct/JUI-Eng.pdf

Muttahida Qaumi Movement. 2013. Empowering People, MQM Manifesto 2013.

Available online at http://www.mqm.org/manifesto2013.

National Party. 2013. Manifesto For General Elections 2013.

Available online at http://national-party.net/manifesto-for-general-elections-2013/

Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). 2013. National Agenda for Real Change
Manifesto 2013.
Available online at http://www.pmln.org/documents/manifesto-english.pdf.

Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid). 2013. PML Manifesto 2013 – Building a Better
Tomorrow.
Available online at http://pml.org.pk/election-manifesto-2013/

Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians. 2013. Manifesto 2013.

Available online at http://www.pppusa.org/Acrobat/manifesto2013.pdf.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. 2013. An Agenda for Resurgence: The Manifesto of

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 2013.
Available online at http://www.cpdi-pakistan.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/PTI_Manifesto_2013.pdf.

42
 ANNEX

Annex 1: The Case for 100%

Enrolment
Pakistan is constitutionally, internationally and politically obligated to provide
education to every child in the country. This section examines the commitments of
the Pakistani state and the pledges of Pakistan’s major political parties.

A1.1 Constitutional obligations (Article 25-A)

The right to education for every child between the ages of 5 and 16 was
enshrined in the Constitution of Pakistan only as recently as 2010.10 In that year,
the National Assembly passed the Constitutional (Eighteenth Amendment) Act,11
making free and compulsory education the ‘Fundamental Right’ of every child:

Article 25-A. Right to education

The State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to
sixteen years in such manner as may be determined by law.

Prior to the 18th Amendment, the right to education was a ‘Principle of Policy’,12
included under a general Article on social justice:

Article 37. Promotion of social justice and eradication of social evils

The State shall […] (b) remove illiteracy and provide free and compulsory secondary
education within minimum possible period […]

Under this provision, the state could not be held to account in a court of law
for failing to provide access to education for all Pakistani children. With the
introduction of Article 25-A, however, the role of the state in providing free and
compulsory education is clearly spelled out as a fundamental right that is legally
enforceable.

The 18th Amendment also recast the authority of the centre and the provinces
with respect to certain subjects, devolving to the provinces legislative and
executive powers related to education at the school level. The legislative
jurisdiction of the federal government with respect to school education is now
limited to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Islamabad
Capital Territory (ICT).13 At the national level, the federal government retains
jurisdiction over all matters related to higher education.14

10 See the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan 1973, as amended.

11 See Constitution (Eighteenth Amendment) Act 2010 (Act X of 2010).
12 It is worth noting that fundamental rights are legally enforceable whereas principles of policy are not.
Principles of policy are not rules of law. Rather, they set out the aims and objectives of the state. As
such, they are not enforceable in the courts.
13 Right to Free and Compulsory Education Act of 2012 (Act XXIV of 2012), which applies only to
the Islamabad Capital Territory. The federal government has yet to frame similar legislation for the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
14 ICG 2014, p. 1.

43
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

The change in jurisdiction requires inter alia that provincial governments frame
implementing laws to bring the provisions of Article 25-A into effect. In this regard,
the response of the provinces has been slow. Sindh passed legislation on the
subject in 2013,15 followed by Balochistan16 and Punjab.17 In KP, no implementing
legislation has yet been tabled although a draft Bill has reportedly been
prepared.18 Considering the seriousness of the education crisis and the scale of
reform required, provincial governments need to ramp up efforts to implement
Article 25-A in letter and spirit as soon as possible.

A1.2 International commitments

Pakistan is a signatory to a number of international treaties and instruments
related to free and compulsory education for all citizens. The Universal
Declaration of Human Rights (1948) recognises the right to education in
these words:

Article 26.

(1) Everyone has the right to education. Education shall be free, at least in the elementary and
fundamental stages. Elementary education shall be compulsory. Technical and professional
education shall be made generally available and higher education shall be equally accessible
to all on the basis of merit.

The Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989) recognises the right to
education and places upon Parties further obligations:

Article 28.

1. States Parties recognize the right of the child to education, and with a view to achieving this
right progressively and on the basis of equal opportunity, they shall, in particular:

(a) Make primary education compulsory and available free to all;

(b) Encourage the development of different forms of secondary education, including general
and vocational education, make them available and accessible to every child, and take
appropriate measures such as the introduction of free education and offering financial
assistance in case of need;
(c) Make higher education accessible to all on the basis of capacity by every appropriate
means;
(d) Make educational and vocational information and guidance available and accessible to
all children;

(e) Take measures to encourage regular attendance at schools and the reduction of drop-out
rates.

15 Sindh Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act 2013 (Sindh Act No. XIV of 2013).
16 Balochistan Compulsory Education Act 2014 (Act No. V of 2014).
17 Punjab Free and Compulsory Education Ordinance 2014 (Ordinance V of 2014), which repeals
the Punjab Compulsory Primary Education Act 1994 (Act IX of 1994). Note that the Ordinance,
promulgated in May 2014, will lapse in four months.
18 ICG 2014, p. 2.

44
 ANNEX

More recently, under the Dakar Framework of Action (2000), the international
community met in Senegal to set six goals, one of which was to focus on quality
education. Goal II of the Framework states:

2. Ensuring that by 2015 all children, particularly girls, children in difficult circumstances
and those belonging to ethnic minorities, have access to and complete free and compulsory
primary education of good quality

All children must have the opportunity to fulfil their right to quality education in schools or
alternative programmes at whatever level of education is considered ‘basic’. All states must
fulfil their obligation to offer free and compulsory primary education in accordance with the
United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child and other international commitments.

In September of the same year, the international community committed to the

United Nations Millennium Development Goals:

Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to
complete a full course of primary schooling

As a signatory to these international instruments, Pakistan is obligated to meet the

goals and targets collectively agreed by the international community. However,
recent trends in school enrolment are not encouraging. Although there has been
some progress in increasing enrolment and expanding access, Pakistan still has
a long way to go. In the last 10 years, for instance, net enrolment at the primary
level has only increased by 5 percentage points, making it virtually impossible
for Pakistan to achieve the MDG target of 100% enrolment by the year 2015 (see
Figure A1.1). Similarly there has been minimal improvement in enrolment at the
middle and high school level.

Figure A1.1: Trends in net enrolment at the primary, middle and high school levels

Source: PSLMS 2004-05 to 2012-13

45
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A1.3 National commitments: political manifestos

Prior to the May 2013 general elections, all major political parties updated their
manifestos to include commitments related to education. This section looks at the
commitments of nine of the country’s major political parties.

Awami National Party

A minimum of 6% of GDP to be allocated for education.
Multiple systems of education to be eliminated.
A monitored and accountable network of primary and secondary schools to
be built in areas that are easily accessible to children, especially girls.
Basic facilities in existing primary and secondary schools to be ensured.
All schools bombed by terrorists to be rebuilt.
Educationgovernance to be de-bureaucratised and decentralised, and
work initiated towards eliminating political interference and corruption in the
education sector.
Education task force to be established to provide oversight both in terms of
access and governance.
Merit and need based scholarships to be available for government
schoolstudents, and especially for girls.
Special incentives to be given to students in remote districts.
Stringent regulation of private educational institutions.
Curriculum to be rid of hate literature.
Teachers training to be based on research-oriented modern concepts of
child-centred education.
Examination assessment and evaluation to be rationalised and computerised.
Education in mother tongue to be introduced along with research-oriented
second language and foreign languages.
Recruitment, evaluation and promotion of teaching faculty to be carried out
strictly on the basis of merit.
Regulation of private education institutions to be rationally and objectively
implemented.
Quality teachertraining to be institutionalised and promotions linked to
training certification.

Jamaat-e-Islami
Uniform education system to be introduced in government and private
schools.

46
 ANNEX

Funds to be allocated to bring the literacy rate to 100% in 5 years and

provincial governments to be accountable for using these funds solely for
this purpose.

Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (Fazl)

Mass access to education to be ensured.
Education to be provided free of cost until matriculation.
Education emergency to be declared and up to 15% of GDP to be allocated
for education.
Curriculum to be informed by Islamic principles and the life and deeds of
Holy Prophet (PBUH).
Nothing against Islamic beliefs to be included in the curriculum.
Education up to Class 10 to be completely free; cost of education in
intermediate and higher classes to be lowered.
Education in the country to be free of charge within a period of 10 years.
Institutions of technical and scientific education to be opened across the
country in large numbers.
Doors of educational institutions to be open to all, and there will be no ban on
admissions.
A system to be introduced to educate illiterate people, efforts to be made to
end illiteracy in the country within 20 years.
High schools to be opened in villages and near factories for free education of
the children of farmers and labourers.
Special schools to be set upfor poor childrenwho will be provided textbooks,
stationery and other educational materials free of charge.

Muttahida Qaumi Movement

Enrolment of children between the ages of 5 and 16 to be launched by the
government, civil society and especially NGOs.
Provinces to supply free books, uniforms and transport facilities to school-
going children.

National Party
Primary education to be the focus, and primary schools to be upgraded to
middle schools.
Transportation facilities to be made available to female students.
Community monitoring system to be introduced to ensure teacher
attendance, protection of school buildings and assets, and a sense of
ownership.

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

Selection and recruitment of all teaching staff to be carried out by the Public
Service Commission, and merit to be ensured.
Students of all government institutions to be provided boarding facilities, and
teaching staff with lodging and basic amenities.
Curriculum to be designed in accordance with the local context, and the
native language to be the medium of instruction in all government schools.
Abusive and discriminatory literature to be excluded from the curriculum.
Establishment of private institutions in rural areas to be encouraged, with
land provided free of cost for this purpose along with special grants.
Directorate of Education to be awarded financial assistance.
Students in private institutions and universities to be considered for
scholarships.

Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)

National Education Emergency to be declared to eradicate illiteracy on a
war footing.
National literacy movement to be launched with volunteers from all segments
of society motivated to participate.
Legislation to be initiated, in consultation with the provinces, to provide a
road map for achieving 80% literacy and 100% enrolment up to the middle
school level.
Strive to meet targets of Education For All (EFA) and the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) related to education within the given time frame.
Dropout rate at the primary level to be reduced by providing missing facilities
in schools and free textbooks, and offering incentives especially for girls.
Detailed action plan to be formulated to upgrade the capacity of provincial
governments for the effective handling of additional responsibilities entrusted
to them under the 18th Amendment, including institutional restructuring
to improve education administration through a Provincial Commission for
Higher Education and the establishment of autonomous District Education
Authorities (DEAs).

Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid)

Education gender gap to be closed through active engagement and
behaviour change communication to make educating a girl an acceptable
social norm.
Marginalised communities to be focused on through equity-based targets,
improved affordability and accessibility, and a sustainable education system
to be created.
An enabling environment to be created for private schools.

48
 ANNEX

Online learning, virtual classrooms and electronic training centres to be

developed.
Standardisation of education curriculum, examination system and higher
education to be made a federal subject.
Efforts to be made to enforce the fundamental right of free and compulsory
education for all children aged 5-16 years.
Vocational and technical education be introduced and institutions opened
with special focus on women and girls in backward areas.
Educational system in madrassas to be strengthened by diversification of the
curriculum.

Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians

Gap between public and private schooling to be bridged by building a
National Education Standards Council for all provinces to coordinate efforts.
Universal primary enrolment by 2018 to be targeted.
Education for all to eliminate class divides, gender disparities, poverty and
unemployment.
Education to be treated as a national emergency, requiring effective planning
and budgeting as well as a holistic approach to bring about change in the
entire system.
Mechanisms to be developed for the exchange of information between
different levels of education.
Measures implemented to ensure access to schooling for all children.
In-depth analysis of the size and character of the out-of-school population to
be carried out to ensure integration into quality schools and other educational
and training programmes.
Provinces to be assisted in achieving universal enrolment by 2018.
Efforts to increase school enrolment and to lower dropout rates to be
intensified.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
National literacy campaign to be launched by mobilising all segments
of society including fresh graduates, unemployed youth and retired
educationists to achieve 80% functional literacy.
Access to primary education for all children to be ensured by establishing
schools that are managed by local councils.
Dropout rate at the elementary level to be reduced by offering incentives in
the form of free textbooks, stipends and nutrition support through midday
meals.

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 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A1.4 Provincial enrolment campaigns

Although provincial governments have paid lip service to the cause of universal
education, little has been done by way of concrete policies and measures to
achieve 100% net enrolment.

Over the last two years, the provinces of KP and Punjab have launched high-
profile enrolment campaigns twice a year. The Punjab government nominated
executive district officers (EDOs) to conduct household surveys in order to
identify OOSC and convince parents to enrol their children, but no systematic
mechanism has been developed to carry out this work in a sustained manner.
The government claims to have enrolled several thousand children during its
enrolment drives but in the absence of measures to monitor—and ensure—
retention, the utility of such activities is questionable.

Similarly, KP conducted two enrolment campaigns in April and September 2013

with the intention of enrolling 0.5 million 5-year-olds in the first phase (April
2013) and a further 1.8 million children up to the age of 9 in the second phase
(September 2013).19 Like Punjab, the KP government claims to have made
progress towards achieving their goal.

Enrolment drives, rallies and seminars are conducted frequently but their impact
is hard to measure. Such gestures also fail to take into account the need to
ensure that children who are enrolled remain in school and receive an education
of quality.

19 According to a statement by the Chairman of the District Development Advisory Committee,

published in Dawn dated September 8, 2013.

50
 ANNEX

Annex 2: District-level estimates

of OOSC
Table A2.1: Percentage of OOSC by district

District Province Boys Girls Total

Dera Bugti Balochistan 84.4 95.7 89.2

Musakhail Balochistan 52.4 81.2 65.5

Nasirabad Balochistan 55.3 78.5 63.8

Killa Abdullah Balochistan 45.1 84.3 63.1

Awaran Balochistan 50.8 71.0 58.9

Jaffarabad Balochistan 48.3 70.7 58.1

Washuk Balochistan 46.1 75.3 58.1

Chaghi Balochistan 41.2 76.9 56.9

Kohlu Balochistan 37.9 77.8 56.1

Harnai Balochistan 39.1 73.5 55.6

Lasbela Balochistan 50.9 59.6 54.4

Zhob Balochistan 32.8 82.1 54.4

Loralai Balochistan 38.0 67.0 51.7

Sherani Balochistan 21.3 88.6 51.2

Kalat Balochistan 36.6 63.8 49.1

Kachhi/Bolan Balochistan 32.2 67.6 48.8

Khuzdar Balochistan 34.0 64.5 47.4

Jhal Magsi Balochistan 35.5 60.0 45.2

Pishin Balochistan 31.5 54.5 42.0

Sibi Balochistan 32.0 44.1 37.3

Ziarat Balochistan 23.8 51.4 36.8

Kech/Turbat Balochistan 25.2 48.2 34.9

Nushki Balochistan 28.9 40.3 34.0

Mastung Balochistan 19.9 48.5 33.3

Barkhan Balochistan 11.0 61.3 33.2

Gwadar Balochistan 19.5 49.9 32.0

Kharan Balochistan 18.2 44.8 29.6

Killa Saifullah Balochistan 13.0 50.5 29.6

Quetta Balochistan 12.8 28.4 19.5

Panjgur Balochistan - - -

51
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

District Province Boys Girls Total

Balochistan Balochistan 34.7 61.5 46.4

Islamabad Islamabad Capital Territory 5.6 6.5 6.0

Kohistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 45.9 85.9 65.1

Tank Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 30.1 66.6 46.7

Tor Ghar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 25.4 67.9 44.9

Dera Ismail Khan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 35.2 54.4 44.1

Shangla Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 29.7 58.3 42.6

Hangu Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 12.3 71.3 38.7

Upper Dir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 23.3 54.3 38.0

Lakki Marwat Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 16.4 54.6 35.1

Batagram Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 14.5 54.5 32.7

Bannu Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 17.2 51.9 32.1

Buner Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 15.9 46.6 31.0

Lower Dir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 15.0 43.9 27.9

Swat Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 13.5 43.3 27.7

Kohat Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 13.8 42.5 27.6

Charsadda Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 14.3 38.6 26.2

Peshawar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 16.3 32.4 23.9

Karak Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8.3 40.1 23.8

Mardan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 13.5 32.2 22.5

Mansehra Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 14.6 26.6 20.4

Nowshera Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 11.3 28.1 19.2

Chitral Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 9.8 24.6 16.4

Swabi Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 9.9 24.1 16.1

Malakand Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8.8 21.2 14.7

Abbottabad Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 8.0 19.6 14.1

Haripur Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 6.7 18.7 12.7

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 16.9 40.8 28.2

Rajanpur Punjab 44.9 56.3 50.1

Rahim Yar Khan Punjab 41.6 53.4 47.2

Bahawalpur Punjab 36.9 48.1 42.1

Dera Ghazi Khan Punjab 29.1 50.4 38.4

Vehari Punjab 31.7 43.9 37.6

Muzaffargarh Punjab 28.6 45.5 36.9

Lodhran Punjab 26.7 42.6 34.9

52
 ANNEX

District Province Boys Girls Total

Bahawalnagar Punjab 27.2 39.1 33.1

Bhakkar Punjab 24.8 40.8 32.6

Khanewal Punjab 26.7 38.8 32.5

Jhang Punjab 23.7 41.3 31.9

Multan Punjab 29.6 34.4 31.9

Pakpattan Punjab 25.7 38.1 31.9

Sahiwal Punjab 25.9 35.0 30.3

Mianwali Punjab 14.5 42.4 28.2

Okara Punjab 23.3 33.0 28.0

Layyah Punjab 20.0 34.1 26.7

Chiniot Punjab 18.8 35.4 26.6

Kasur Punjab 22.8 29.4 25.9

Sheikhupura Punjab 24.5 26.0 25.3

Khushab Punjab 18.9 31.4 24.8

Sargodha Punjab 20.1 26.5 23.2

Toba Tek Singh Punjab 19.7 25.2 22.5

Hafizabad Punjab 18.7 24.1 21.4

Faisalabad Punjab 19.7 20.8 20.2

Nankana Sahib Punjab 17.0 21.5 19.4

Gujranwala Punjab 19.1 16.2 17.7

Lahore Punjab 16.2 14.8 15.5

Mandi Bahauddin Punjab 14.8 15.7 15.2

Sialkot Punjab 14.0 15.4 14.7

Attock Punjab 11.2 17.2 14.0

Gujrat Punjab 13.0 14.8 13.9

Narowal Punjab 11.2 14.8 13.1

Chakwal Punjab 10.5 14.8 12.6

Rawalpindi Punjab 10.6 11.9 11.3

Jhelum Punjab 9.4 13.1 11.2

Punjab Punjab 23.0 30.1 26.4

Thatta Sindh 60.8 72.8 66.1

Tando Muhammad Khan Sindh 54.7 66.4 59.9

Badin Sindh 47.6 65.4 56.1

Kashmore-Kandhkot Sindh 42.4 69.6 54.9

Umerkot Sindh 48.7 59.0 53.2

53
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

District Province Boys Girls Total

Mirpurkhas Sindh 44.8 61.5 52.2

Shikarpur Sindh 37.1 62.5 49.0

Tando Allah Yar Sindh 40.0 58.1 48.6

Matiari Sindh 41.3 55.6 47.9

Kambar-Shahdadkot Sindh 37.8 59.3 47.6

Ghotki Sindh 32.6 66.1 47.4

Jamshoro Sindh 36.6 58.8 46.7

Jacobabad Sindh 38.2 56.4 46.1

Shaheed Benazirabad Sindh 33.1 59.8 45.1

Sanghar Sindh 34.4 55.6 44.0

Tharparkar Sindh 37.4 51.1 43.4

Khairpur Sindh 33.6 53.8 42.9

Naushehro Feroze Sindh 31.1 50.5 39.7

Sukkur Sindh 29.8 48.5 38.8

Dadu Sindh 30.8 41.8 35.7

Larkana Sindh 26.5 43.2 34.6

Hyderabad Sindh 26.8 34.3 30.4

Karachi Sindh 15.8 18.0 16.9

Sujawal Sindh - - -

Sindh Sindh 32.2 45.8 38.5

Pakistan Pakistan 24.9 36.9 30.6

Districts are arranged in the descending order of the proportion of OOSC within provinces.
Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2012-13

Table A2.2: Enrolment by type of school, age 5 to 16

District Province Public Private Madrissa Other Total

Mastung Balochistan 98.1 0.0 1.9 0.0 100.0

Kech/Turbat Balochistan 97.2 1.8 0.9 0.1 100.0
Kachhi/Bolan Balochistan 97.2 2.1 0.1 0.6 100.0
Barkhan Balochistan 97.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 100.0
Harnai Balochistan 97.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 100.0
JhalMagsi Balochistan 97.0 2.4 0.0 0.6 100.0
DeraBugti Balochistan 96.3 3.7 0.0 0.0 100.0
Washuk Balochistan 96.2 2.0 0.7 1.1 100.0

54
 ANNEX

District Province Public Private Madrissa Other Total

Gwadar Balochistan 95.8 3.1 0.7 0.3 100.0

Jaffarabad Balochistan 94.8 4.9 0.2 0.0 100.0
Ziarat Balochistan 93.6 4.6 1.8 0.0 100.0
Chaghi Balochistan 93.6 1.9 4.1 0.4 100.0
Nushki Balochistan 93.3 3.6 3.1 0.0 100.0
Kohlu Balochistan 93.0 1.4 5.4 0.2 100.0
Killa Abdullah Balochistan 92.6 2.5 4.5 0.4 100.0
Khuzdar Balochistan 92.4 6.2 1.3 0.1 100.0
Nasirabad Balochistan 92.2 7.8 0.0 0.0 100.0
Kharan Balochistan 92.0 1.0 6.9 0.1 100.0
Kalat Balochistan 90.4 1.7 7.9 0.0 100.0
Awaran Balochistan 89.3 0.9 9.8 0.0 100.0
Sherani Balochistan 89.3 7.4 3.3 0.0 100.0
Sibi Balochistan 85.7 12.7 1.6 0.0 100.0
Zhob Balochistan 85.6 10.1 4.4 0.0 100.0
KillaSaifullah Balochistan 85.2 5.7 6.2 2.9 100.0
Pishin Balochistan 84.4 6.5 8.7 0.4 100.0
Lasbela Balochistan 82.8 13.7 3.5 0.0 100.0
Quetta Balochistan 71.6 25.1 3.3 0.0 100.0
Loralai Balochistan 70.1 25.8 4.1 0.0 100.0
Musakhail Balochistan 62.8 17.0 15.5 4.7 100.0
Panjgur Balochistan - - - - -
Balochistan Balochistan 88.6 8.0 3.2 0.3 100.0
Islamabad Islamabad Capital Territory 58.4 40.4 1.1 100.0
Upper Dir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 93.7 5.2 1.0 0.2 100.0
Kohistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 93.7 3.3 3.1 0.0 100.0
Lower Dir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 88.5 9.5 1.5 0.5 100.0
Tor Ghar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 88.3 0.4 11.3 0.0 100.0
LakkiMarwat Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 87.1 9.1 3.1 0.7 100.0
Bannu Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 86.3 12.4 0.6 0.7 100.0
Dera Ismail Khan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 79.5 16.7 3.4 0.3 100.0
Shangla Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 77.4 20.2 2.0 0.3 100.0
Tank Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 76.8 19.8 2.8 0.6 100.0
Buner Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 76.5 21.7 1.8 0.1 100.0
Mardan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 74.4 24.0 1.1 0.5 100.0

55
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

District Province Public Private Madrissa Other Total

Karak Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 74.2 22.7 1.5 1.5 100.0

Malakand Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 73.0 25.9 0.5 0.7 100.0
Kohat Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 72.9 25.0 0.7 1.4 100.0
Hangu Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 71.6 27.5 0.9 0.1 100.0
Swabi Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 69.8 29.1 0.7 0.4 100.0
Chitral Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 67.9 30.4 1.2 0.5 100.0
Haripur Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 67.9 30.3 0.4 1.5 100.0
Batagram Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 67.6 27.5 4.6 0.3 100.0
Charsadda Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 67.6 31.1 1.1 0.2 100.0
Abbottabad Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 67.2 30.9 1.0 1.0 100.0
Nowshera Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 64.4 33.6 1.1 1.0 100.0
Swat Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 64.3 34.7 0.5 0.6 100.0
Mansehra Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 62.8 32.2 3.1 1.9 100.0
Peshawar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 53.9 43.9 1.8 0.4 100.0
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 71.7 26.1 1.6 0.6 100.0
Dera Ghazi Khan Punjab 87.3 12.3 0.3 0.1 100.0
Rajanpur Punjab 83.4 16.3 0.1 0.2 100.0
Bhakkar Punjab 82.2 15.3 1.4 1.1 100.0
Layyah Punjab 77.1 19.2 1.7 2.1 100.0
Mianwali Punjab 74.3 24.4 0.9 0.5 100.0
Chakwal Punjab 72.8 25.4 1.1 0.6 100.0
Pakpattan Punjab 71.9 25.7 2.1 0.4 100.0
Khushab Punjab 71.3 27.2 0.8 0.7 100.0
Jhelum Punjab 70.2 26.7 2.5 0.6 100.0
Chiniot Punjab 69.7 27.6 2.6 0.1 100.0
Khanewal Punjab 69.6 26.9 3.0 0.6 100.0
Rahim Yar Khan Punjab 68.9 23.2 6.3 1.6 100.0
Sahiwal Punjab 68.8 27.6 2.5 1.2 100.0
Toba Tek Singh Punjab 68.4 29.3 1.8 0.6 100.0
Jhang Punjab 68.0 29.6 1.8 0.6 100.0
Bahawalpur Punjab 66.5 26.9 5.9 0.8 100.0
Bahawalnagar Punjab 66.4 20.6 3.8 9.2 100.0
Sargodha Punjab 66.0 32.0 2.0 0.1 100.0
Vehari Punjab 65.7 30.4 3.6 0.3 100.0
Hafizabad Punjab 65.1 31.9 2.3 0.7 100.0

56
 ANNEX

District Province Public Private Madrissa Other Total

Okara Punjab 64.1 33.2 1.1 1.7 100.0

MandiBahauddin Punjab 63.4 34.7 1.4 0.5 100.0
Attock Punjab 63.0 35.1 1.1 0.8 100.0
Muzaffargarh Punjab 61.9 30.8 4.4 2.9 100.0
Nankana Sahib Punjab 60.8 38.4 0.5 0.4 100.0
Gujrat Punjab 60.3 38.9 0.7 0.1 100.0
Faisalabad Punjab 60.0 38.4 1.4 0.1 100.0
Kasur Punjab 59.4 38.8 0.8 1.0 100.0
Narowal Punjab 57.7 38.7 3.2 0.4 100.0
Lodhran Punjab 56.4 39.3 2.9 1.4 100.0
Rawalpindi Punjab 55.9 42.1 1.4 0.7 100.0
Sialkot Punjab 55.4 42.8 1.7 0.1 100.0
Multan Punjab 54.1 42.4 1.7 1.8 100.0
Sheikhupura Punjab 51.2 47.5 1.1 0.2 100.0
Lahore Punjab 45.1 52.2 1.5 1.2 100.0
Gujranwala Punjab 42.5 55.7 1.2 0.7 100.0
Punjab Punjab 61.8 35.1 2.0 1.0 100.0
Tharparkar Sindh 96.4 1.9 1.4 0.3 100.0
Kambar-Shahdadkot Sindh 94.1 5.1 0.4 0.4 100.0
Larkana Sindh 93.0 5.9 1.1 0.0 100.0
Shikarpur Sindh 91.4 6.7 1.3 0.6 100.0
Badin Sindh 90.8 8.0 0.4 0.8 100.0
Jacobabad Sindh 90.8 9.1 0.1 0.0 100.0
Matiari Sindh 89.9 9.2 0.0 0.9 100.0
Kashmore-Kandhkot Sindh 89.8 9.5 0.5 0.2 100.0
Dadu Sindh 88.4 10.4 0.3 0.9 100.0
NaushehroFeroze Sindh 87.4 12.0 0.6 0.0 100.0
Sanghar Sindh 86.5 12.8 0.2 0.4 100.0
Tando Muhammad Khan Sindh 85.3 13.6 0.6 0.6 100.0
Ghotki Sindh 84.6 13.6 1.5 0.3 100.0
Shaheed Benazirabad Sindh 84.0 13.9 0.8 1.3 100.0
Khairpur Sindh 83.5 15.3 0.0 1.2 100.0
Thatta Sindh 83.3 8.7 3.6 4.4 100.0
Jamshoro Sindh 83.2 15.7 0.2 0.8 100.0
Umerkot Sindh 83.0 11.2 5.5 0.3 100.0

57
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

District Province Public Private Madrissa Other Total

Sukkur Sindh 77.8 19.9 2.2 0.1 100.0

Mirpurkhas Sindh 77.2 21.6 1.1 0.1 100.0
Tando Allah Yar Sindh 74.0 24.8 1.3 0.0 100.0
Hyderabad Sindh 52.9 46.3 0.7 0.1 100.0
Karachi Sindh 26.2 69.6 3.8 0.5 100.0
Sujawal Sindh - - - - -
Sindh Sindh 64.4 33.2 1.9 0.5 100.0
Pakistan Pakistan 65.1 32.4 2.0 0.5 100.0

Districts are arranged in descending order of the proportion of children attending government school in every
province.
Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2012-13

58
 ANNEX

Annex 3: Heat maps

A3.1: Percentage of out-of-school children between the ages of 5 and 16 years

59
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A3.2: Percentage of out-of-school girls between the ages of 5 and 16 years

60
 ANNEX

A3.3: Percentage of children between the ages of 5 and 16 who never attended school

61
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A3.4: Percentage of girls between the ages of 5 and 16 years who have never attended school

62
 ANNEX

A3.5: Percentage of students (5 and 16 years) attending government school

63
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A3.6: Percentage of students (5 and 16 years old) attending government school

64
 ANNEX

A3.7: Percentage of students (5 and 16 years old) attending private school

65
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A3.8: Percentage of students (5-16 years old) attending private school

66
 ANNEX

A3.9: Net enrolment at the primary school level (age 5-9 years)

67
 25 MILLION BROKEN PROMISES

A3.10: Net enrolment at the middle school level (age 10-12 years)

68
 ANNEX

A3.11: Net enrolment at the high school level (age 13-14 years)

69
The Alif Ailaan campaign is seed-funded by the UK Department for International Development.