ENSO QUICK LOOK October 8, 2015 A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La

Niña and the Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO”, based on NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
During late September through early October 2015 the tropical Pacific SST was at a strong El Niño level.
All atmospheric variables support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall
in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate continuation
of strong El Niño conditions during the September-November 2015 season in progress. Some further
strengthening into later fall is possible, with the event lasting well into spring 2016.

Early-Oct CPC/IRI Consensus Forecast1 Mid-Sep IRI/CPC Plume-Based Forecast2

100 100
ENSO state based on NINO3.4 SST Anomaly ENSO state based on NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
90 90
Neutral ENSO: −0.5oC to 0.5oC Neutral ENSO: −0.5oC to 0.5oC
80 80 El Nino
Neutral
70 70
Probability (%)

La Nina
60 60

50 50 Climatological
Probability:
40 40 El Nino
Neutral
30 30 La Nina

20 20

10 10

0 0
SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ
2015 Time Period 2016 2015 Time Period 2016

Mid-Sep 2015 Plume of Model ENSO Predictions

3.0 Dynamical Model:

2.5 IRI/CPC NCEP CFSv2

NASA GMAO

Historical NINO3.4 SST Anomaly DYN AVG JMA

SCRIPPS
2.0 STAT AVG
3 LDEO
CPC CON AUS/POAMA
2.5
ECMWF
1.5
2 ← UKMO
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (oC)

NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (OC)

KMA SNU
1.5 1.0 IOCAS ICM
1 COLA CCSM3
MetFRANCE
0.5
0.5 SINTEX-F
CS-IRI-MM
0
0.0 GFDL CM2.1
−0.5 CMC CANSIP
GFDL FLOR
−1 -0.5
Statistical Model:
−1.5 CPC MRKOV
-1.0 CDC LIM
−2
CPC CA
−2.5 -1.5 CPC CCA
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 CSU CLIPR
Time Period UBC NNET
-2.0 FSU REGR
UCLA-TCD
OBS FORECAST
-2.5 UNB/CWC
JJA Aug ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ
2015 2016

Historically Speaking
El Niño and La Niña events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and they:
- Tend to reach their maximum strength during Dec-Feb
- Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years
- Typically recur every 2 to 7 years

1
Based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters, in association with the official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
2
Purely objective, based on regression, using equally weighted model predictions from the plume.