Risk Analysis

Project: AG Wheel Stamping Project Total risk before : 171

Project manager: Namal Hewavitharana Total risk after : 0
Revision date : Risk analysis result (% lowered) : 100%

Risk definition: An uncertain event or condition that, if occurs, has a Ranking

positive or negative effet on the achievement of a project objective. (see legends 1.0 & 3.0)
Response
Mitigation Contingency
Risk description Probability Impact Total (see legends Trigger event Owner
(see legends 2.0) (see legends 2.0)
4.0)
Speed up other processes like
Allow 2 additional weeks for
Delivery on time 5 5 25 Mitigate Delay in manufacturing propotype incoming test, prototype
delivery leadtime
manufacturing
Measure pipe dimensions at
Meet final dimension of wheel as Sort out Pipes as per the OD
Material Dimensions as per the specification 7 7 49 Mitigate supplier premises before
per the drawing Ranges.
dispatch

Material surface quality 3 3 9 Accept Final product quality Shot blast the wheel Observe surface quality be

Falk lift capacity 1 3 3 Transfer Outsource

Raw material availablity 5 10 50 Transfer

USA tarrif on China on steel products 5 7 35 Mitigate

0
 Risk Analysis - Scoring Ex
1.0 Risk scoring

Rank Probability Impact

Very high 10 10
High 7 7
Moderate 5 5
Low 3 3
Very low 1 1

2.0 Score mapping

Impact
Very low Low Moderate High Very high
Very high Medium Medium High High High
Probability

High Low Medium Medium High High

Moderate Low Low Medium Medium High
Low Low Low Low Medium Medium
Very low Low Low Low Low Medium
Legend :
Low Monitoring only

Medium Establish risk response plan

High Establish risk response plan & implement strategy

3.0 Probability & Impact scale

Scale Probability Scale Product cost Budget Schedule

Very high 71 ~ 90% Very high > 10% > 15% > 4 weeks
High 51 ~ 70% High 6 ~ 10% 10 ~ 14% 3 ~ 4 weeks
Moderate 31 ~ 50% Moderate 3 ~ 5% 5 ~ 9% 2 ~ 3 weeks
Low 11 ~ 30% Low 1 ~ 2% 2 ~ 4% 1 ~ 2 weeks
Very low 1 ~ 10% Very low < 1% < 2% < 1 week

Note: in case of multiple items please use the highest.

4.0 Risk response

Technique Description
Avoid Make changes on the project to avoid completely
Transfer Transfer threat & response to a third party
Mitigate Taking action to reduce the probability and/or impact of the risk
Accept Decision not to make changes on the project to avoid risk
Scoring Explanations

Impact
Scope Quality
Cannot achieve major program requirement / feature Very significant impact on overall functionality
Major slip in key requirements / features Significant impact on overall functionality
Moderate slip in key requirement / feature Some impact in key functional areas
Minor slip in requirement / feature Minor impact on overall functionality
Minimal or no impact Minor impact on secondary functions
 Work Instruction-Risk a
1) During a 2) The next step, still in team, is 3) This section is an analysis of
group to make an evaluation of the the IMPACT of the risk on the
brainstorm, PROBABILITY that the risk project's progress. Impact need
one after the occurs during the project. to be assessed in order of
other, each of Probability needs to be magnitude between 1-10. Impact
the team assessed in order of magnitude with 10 being more likely to
members set between 1-10. Risks with 10 infuence the project process and
out a RISK being the most likely to occur 1 being the one with the least 4) The TOTAL rep
that could and 1 being the one with the impact. Refer to the legend 1.0- magnitude of this
arise during least likely to occur. Refer to the Risk scoring for details. 100. This will allow
the project. legend 1.0-Risk scoring for from highest to lo
This details. response on the h
brainstorming
will allow
participation of
the entire team
and ensure
that all RISKS
are
considered.

6)The TRIGGER EVENTS is the 7) The MITIGATION is the 8) The CONTENGENCY is

important element that could create solution that could be an option that is
the appearance of risk at a given established to minimize the implemented the risk does
time. (Ex: the risk is a supplier strike, impact or diminish the possibility in fact affect the project.
the trigger event would then be the that the risk will affect the Refer to the legends 2.0
result of the strike vote). project. Refer to the legends 2.0 Score mapping for details.
Score mapping for details.
Initial developped by :Eric Blondeau
on-Risk analysis

4) The TOTAL represents the percentage of

magnitude of this risk on the project on a ranking of
100. This will allow a sorting of the risks to be done
from highest to lowest so the team can focus its
response on the higher risk elements.

5) The RESPONSE will determine how

the team will respond to this risk. The
four responses possible are to avoid,
transfer, mitigate or to accept the
risks. For more information consult the
legend 4.0 Risk response.

CONTENGENCY is 9) The BUDGET is an optional

on that is column used during the brainstorm.
ented the risk does It's the money needed to implement
affect the project. the mitigation and/or the contingency
o the legends 2.0 measures that need to be transferred
mapping for details. to the project budget. Refer to the
the legends Probabilty and Impact
Scale for details.

10) The OWNER is the

person responsible for the
mitigation or contingency.
10) The OWNER is the
person responsible for the
mitigation or contingency.

11) The LAST STEP is to

reassess the remaining risk
after the mitigation and
contingency is considered to
be in effect. It will be possible
for the team to see if the
impact and probability of the
risk occurring are reduced
enough after the solutions are
implemented or if you need to
keep working on diminishing
the risk threat. Refer to the
legends 1.0 and 3.0 for more
details.

12) The first risk analysis

TOTAL RISK BEFORE =
PROBABILITY* IMPACT

13) After the mitigation and

the contengency we now have
the TOTAL RISK AFTER.

14) This is the KPI for the

effectiveness of your risk
response action plan. It shows
how much the risk lowered in
% following your action plan. It
should be reported to the team
and stakeholders.