Regional: Refer To Important Disclosures at The End of Each Report
Regional: Refer To Important Disclosures at The End of Each Report
Morning Pack
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Refer to important disclosures at the end of each report
Mark KONG
• New centralised procurement arrangement in Dec 2018 can halve account receivables, debt and interest
cost to trigger a sector re-rating
• Despite ASP cut, leading distributors will still achieve decent sales growth on market share gain and
launch of new businesses
• Trading at >1SD below its 5-year average PE, the sector’s valuation is attractive. BUY the largest player
Sinopharm (1099 HK) and undervalued regional leader Liuzhou Pharm (603368 CH)
Read more ...
Sachin MITTAL
• TPG has launched mobile trials with free plans; only few handsets support its voice calls; decent network
outdoors but limited indoor coverage
• Netlink NBN is our top pick in the sector with 6.6% yield. We also like Singtel and StarHub for ~6% yield
each and potential exit of TPG in 3-4 years
• The key risk for Singtel will be further rise in Bharti’s losses in FY20. The key risk for StarHub will be TPG
striking a roaming deal with an existing operator
Read more…
Summary
Industry Focus
HK Property Monthly Chart Book: Local developers dominated the land market
Stocks
Singapore
CapitaLand: Revitalised to take on the future world
Thailand
TISCO Financial Group: Results beat expectations
• We expect Bank Indonesia to keep policy rates unchanged at this week’s decision.
• Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are expected to rebound to 2.1% YoY in December.
• Price pressures continue to ebb in India with December’s CPI expected to print 2.1% YoY.
Read more
• Investing in BBB credits is a key part of our broader recommendation to position defensively in Asian
credit, given expectation of volatile markets.
• While performance so far in 2019 has taken some sheen off HG valuations, it still is our preferred trade
with potential opportunities in the primary market.
• Concerns around credit quality are fairly limited among BBB credits with the key risk to the trade being an
unexpected spike in treasury yields.
Read more…
DBS Economics & Strategy
SGS: Slim pickings
Eugene LEOW
Industry Focus
HK Property Monthly Chart Book
Local developers dominated the land market
Jeff YAU / Ian CHUI / Jason LAM
Stocks to watch
Singapore
CapitaLand (CAPL SP): BUY
Market Cap: US$10,053m | Average Daily Value: US$15.12m
Last Traded Price: S$3.27; Price Target: S$3.62 (Upside 10.8%)
Derek TAN / Rachel TAN
Revitalised to take on the future world
• CapitaLand to buy over Temasek’s stake in Ascendas-Singbridge Group for S$11bn
• The target company is an established business solutions provider with core expertise in the business park
and logistics space with an AUM of S$23.6bn
• Complementary exposures with synergies and value to be extracted over time.
• While proforma gearing hits a high of 0.72x, there are plans to realise value through ongoing capital
recycling and stronger cashflows to reduce gearing towards 0.6x.
Read more...
Thailand
TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$2,031m | Average Daily Value: US$10.61m
Last Traded Price: Bt81.00; Price Target: Bt102.00 (Upside 25.9%)
Thaninee SATIRAREUNGCHAI
Commodity Indicators
Commodities Latest Previous YTD % chng
Closing Closing 7.6% Nickel Spot
-3.0% Coal Spot
Nickel Spot USD/mt 11,414 11,194
4.2% Tin
Coal Spot USD/mt 98 101
0.0% Steel (weekly)
Tin USD/mt 20,300 20,140
-0.4% Copper
Steel (weekly) RMB/mt 490 - Gold Spot
0.7%
Copper USD/lb 5,942 5,930
Gold Spot USD/t. oz 1,292 1,292 2.3% Soybean Oil Spot
1.2%
Soybean Oil Spot USD/pound 28 28 Soybean Spot
6.0%
Soybean Spot USD/bushel 9 9 2.1%
Sugar #11
Company
Big Caps (>US$2bn) Reasons for Picks / Potential Catalysts
Ascendas REIT • Improved portfolio metrics with firepower to grow; manager targets to deepen presence in core markets
• Exploring opportunities in other developed markets in the USA and Europe which offer attractive returns with similar risk profiles
• Attractive yields north of 6pct with upside from acquisitions
Genting Singapore • VIP volumes still soft but win rate was better than expected
• With bad debts under control, GENS guiding that is now focused on selectively growing its VIP business
SATS • Changi’s air and passenger traffic growth of +5% y-o-y YTD, and cargo growth of 4% y-oy YTD will see continued support for earnings growth
in FY19F
• Positive drivers stem from 1) passenger and air traffic growth at Changi Terminal 4; 2) automation and staff productivity driving modest cost
increase and better margins in the next few years; 3) the development of a flight kitchen in Turkey; and 4) the opening of Terminal 5
• Stock offers dividend yield of 3.5%
ST Engineering • STE should be back on growth trajectory in FY18; orderbook remains at near peak level at S$13.4bn
• Aerospace segment rebounding, with margins improving this year on stronger engine MRO demand
• Potential near-term catalysts from award of some large contracts in the US that STE is vying for
• Improved long-term visibility from STE’s target to more than double smart city revenues by 2022 and grow other segment revenues at 2-3x the
global GDP growth rate
AIA Group • Excluding HK's retail-IFA impact in 1H17, underlying VONB growth (+24% y-o-y) was strong in 1H18, largely in line
• Management preparing ahead of potential geographical expansion in China
• Resuming growth momentum in Singapore and Thailand after two years of contraction
China Railway • Expect infrastructure FAI to improve on better liquidity after four rounds of RRR cuts.
Construction • The PPP project market revival is beneficiary to the company, especially its interest in the EPC segment.
• CRCC has a huge order backlog of Rmb2.6tr on hand, after winning some Rmb890bn of new contracts in 9M18.
China Vanke • Distressed PE 1st division below mean since listing and an attractive dividend yield.
• Well-equipped for future M&A and land acquisition opportunities
• Usually outperform during market downturn
• Continued consolidation of its new businesses to pave way for new earnings drivers ahead.
Company
Big Caps (>US$2bn) Reasons for Picks / Potential Catalysts
Hong Leong Bank • HLB is conservative yet solid bank, carrying financial metric next to best after Public Bank. Apart from being able to maintain NIM trends amid
challenging loan growth, HLB’s asset quality and capital indicators are robust.
• HLB’s additional strength vs peers lies in its low loan-to-deposit ratio (albeit a naive indicator), but it implies that should the bank decide to
loosen its grip on this liquidity stance, there would be further ample upside to NIM, earnings and ROE.
• It’s associate company, Bank of Chengdu (BOCD) has finally listed its shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Post-IPO, HLB’s stake in BOCD
was marginally diluted. We continue to expect positive prospects on BOCD’s contribution to HLB’s pre-tax profit. Separately, HLB and BOCD
will be divesting it’s stake in a joint-venture company (Sichuan Jincheng Consumer Finance Ltd Co). The sale is expected to be completed by
Jun-2018. Proceeds from this divestment would be recognised as a one-off gain in FYJun18.
Public Bank • Solid as a rock. We believe PBK will continue to deliver stellar earnings in 2018 with a possible NIM surprise. Loan growth may lag until auto
loans pick up in 2H18.
• Stellar asset quality and efficiency. PBK’s ability to maintain solid asset quality indicators (even post-MFRS9), and its best-in-class cost-to-income
ratio coupled with efficient capital management should keep valuations ahead of peers.
• Maintain BUY, outperformance to sustain. Our RM26.90 TP is based on the Gordon Growth Model (15% ROE, 9% cost of equity, 4% long
term growth) equivalent to 2.5x FY18 BV.
Airports of Thailand • AOT is a direct play for Thailand’s tourism industry.
• Passenger traffic growth is expected to accelerate. International tourist arrivals in 2M18 have been strong, growing by 15%.
• More positive catalysts are awaiting such as upcoming new biddings of duty-free concessions, the emergence of managing additional airports,
and earnings upside potential from airport city projects.
CP ALL • CPALL will benefit from the recovery of domestic consumption and rising purchasing power as it sells mainly consumer products.
• This would further support SSSG in both CVS and cash-and-carry businesses.
• CPALL still targets to open at least 700 7-Eleven stores p.a.
• Despite its plans to add new stores, the spotlight remains on lifting margins by increasing the mix of high-margin products (health and beauty)
and controlling expenses.
• FY18F profit is projected to rise 18.1% y-o-y to Bt23bn.
Indorama Ventures • Strong earnings growth of 30% in 2018F to be driven by sales volume growth from its acquisition and higher contribution from HVA products
• Increase in EBITDA/ton in 2018 and beyond, thanks to the wider spread of PET given the global PET industry rebalancing, antidumping
investigation of PET imports in the US and Canada and import ban on waste plastic in China effective from Jan 2018
• Several acquisitions of HVA products in 2016 to date, which has enhanced its market positioning in specialty chemical markets would be the
key factor in stabilising IVL’s core EBITDA/ton in the longer term given its steady margins
Regional
High Conviction Picks
Company
Small & Mid Caps (<US$2bn) Reasons for Picks / Potential Catalysts
China Everbright Greentech • Enjoy one of the highest earnings growth of 25-27% with the lowest PEG of 0.3x within the environmental protection sector
• Strategically positioned in biomass power, hazardous waste treatment and soil remediation segments which have strong market
demand and relatively less intense competition
• Strong balance sheet with low net debt-equity ratio of c.40% and the least accounts receivable risk
HKBN • Expect higher residential broadband ARPU upside as low-ARPU subs contracted during the price war two years ago are due for
renewal at higher prices in 2018
• Expect dividend per share to grow at a CAGR of 20% from FY8/18-FY8/21
• Release of new co-ownership plan with financial targets could be a near term catalyst
SUNeVision • Robust data centre demand driven by multi-media content and cloud segment;
• Beneficiary of data centre supply shortage in HK:
• Earnings growth to accelerate, driven by higher utilisation of newly launched data centre and improving margins
Aeon Thana Sinsap (Thailand) • We like AEONTS for its strong position in the retail finance industry and solid balance sheet. It is one of the largest non-bank players in
Thailand and commands the largest share of the personal loan market
• We believe a strong recovery in retail spending will be a key re-rating catalyst for the stock, and the upcoming general election
(expected in Feb 2019) should be a catalyst for retail spending in late 2018 – early 2019
• We estimate AEONTS’s loan growth and earnings growth at 12.5%/11.5% and 21.9%/12.1%, respectively, in FY18F/FY19F
Kiatnakin Bank • We like KKP for its continual operating improvements in both its commercial banking and capital market businesses
• KKP is ready to grow with the economy, given its strong capital structure and recently developed internal models that allow it to
capture new businesses and new clientele
• We expect FY18/19F dividend yield to remain high at 6-7% p.a., driven by decent earnings growth, i.e. 8.1%/6.2% in FY18/19F
Tisco Financial Group • After divesting its personal loan portfolio and credit card business that were acquired from SCBT, to Citibank N.A. (Bangkok Branch),
TISCO would not have to manage those businesses that it does not intend to expand. This will lead to lower operating costs and credit
costs
• However, TISCO can upsell its financial products and expand its securities business to the mid-range to high-end retail customers,
acquired from SCBT
• We expect FY18/19F dividend yield to remain high at 7-8% p.a., driven by decent earnings growth, i.e. 17%/10% in FY18/19F
DBS Bank Ltd recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends
Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Bank unless otherwise specified
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Company Regn. No 0105539127012
Securities and Exchange Commission, Thailand