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Technology Roadmap
Wind energy 2013 edition
 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.
Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative
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through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
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Foreword
Current trends in energy supply and use are Because of these improvements and other changes
unsustainable – economically, environmentally and in the energy landscape, this updated roadmap
socially. Without decisive action, energy-related targets an increased share (15% to 18%) of global
greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions could more than electricity to be provided by wind power in 2050,
double by 2050, and increased oil demand will compared to 12% in the original roadmap of 2009.
heighten concerns over the security of supplies.
We can and must change the path we are now on; But more remains to be done to ensure that these
sustainable and low-carbon energy technologies objectives are met. There is a continuing need for
will play a crucial role in the energy revolution improved technology. Increasing levels of low-cost
required to make this change happen. wind still require predictable, supportive regulatory
environments, and appropriate market designs. The
There is a growing awareness of the urgent need to challenges of integrating higher levels of variable
turn political statements and analytical work into wind power into the grid must be tackled. And
concrete action. To address these challenges, the for offshore wind – still at the early stages of the
International Energy Agency (IEA), at the request deployment journey – much remains to be done
of the Group of Eight (G8), has identified the most to develop appropriate large-scale systems and to
important technologies needed to achieve a global reduce costs.
energy-related CO2 target in 2050 of 50% below
current levels. It has thus been developing a series This updated roadmap recognises the very
of technology roadmaps, based on the Energy significant progress made since the last version
Technology Perspectives modelling, which allows was published. It provides an updated analysis of
assessing the deployment path of each technology, the barriers which remain to accelerated progress
taking into account the whole energy supply and along with proposals to address them covering
demand context. technology, legislative and regulatory issues. We
hope that the analysis and recommendations will
Wind is the most advanced of the “new” renewable play a part in ensuring the continued success of
energy technologies and was the subject of one of wind energy.
the first roadmaps produced by the IEA, in 2009.
Since then, the development and deployment of This publication is produced under my authority as
wind power has been a rare good news story in the Executive Director of the IEA.
deployment of low-carbon technology deployment.
A much greater number of countries in all regions Maria van der Hoeven
of the world now have significant wind generating Executive Director
capacity. In a few countries, wind power already International Energy Agency
provides 15% to 30% of total electricity. The
technology keeps rapidly improving, and costs
of generation from land-based wind installations
have continued to fall. Wind power is now being
deployed in countries with good resources without
special financial incentives.

This publication reflects the views of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Secretariat but does not necessarily reflect
those of individual IEA member countries. The IEA makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect
to the publication’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or
reliance on, the publication.

Foreword 1
 Table of contents
Foreword 1
Acknowledgements 4
Key findings and actions 5
Key actions in the next ten years 5
Introduction 7
Rationale for wind power in the overall energy context 7
Purpose of the roadmap update 7
Roadmap process, content and structure 8
Wind energy progress since 2008 9
Recent developments in wind markets 9
Technology improvements 12
Advancing towards competitiveness 14
Barriers encountered, overcome or outstanding 17
Medium-term outlook 18
Vision for deployment and CO2 abatement 19
CO2 reduction targets from the ETP 2012 Scenarios 19
Wind targets revised upward compared to 2009 roadmap 20
Potential for cost reductions 22
Global investment to 2050 23
Wind technology development: actions and time frames 25
Wind power technology 25
Special considerations for offshore development 28
Wind characteristic assessment 32
Supply chains, manufacturing and installation 34
System integration: actions and time frames 36
Transmission planning and development 36
Reliable system operation with large shares of wind energy 41
Policy, finance, public acceptance and International collaboration: actions and time frames 45
Incentivising investment 45
Public engagement and the environment 47
Planning and permitting 48
Increased funding for RD&D 49
International collaboration: actions and time frame 50
Roadmap action plan and next steps 52
Near-term actions for stakeholders 52
Implementation 53
Abbreviations and acronyms 54
References 56

2 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

List of tables

Table 1. Progress in wind power since 2008 10

Table 2. Cumulative investment in the 2DS (USD billion) 23

List of figures
Figure 1. Global cumulative growth of wind power capacity 9
Figure 2. Global wind map, installed capacity and production for lead countries 11
Figure 3. Capacity factors of selected turbine types 12
Figure 4. Evolution of forecasting errors since 2008 13
Figure 5. Cost trend of land-based wind turbine prices, by contract date 14
Figure 6. Capital costs of European offshore wind farms, by year (EUR/W) 15
Figure 7. Recent trends in average price for full-service O&M contracts (EUR/MW/yr) 16
Figure 8. Estimated change in the LCOE between low- and high-wind-speed sites 17
Figure 9. Global electricity mix by 2050 in the 2DS and hiRen scenario 20
Figure 10. Regional production of wind electricity in the 2DS and hiRen 21
Figure 11. Additional CO2 emissions reduction in 2050 by region in the 2DS and hiRen (over the 6DS) 21
Figure 12. Wind electricity production in the hiRen versus industry scenarios 22
Figure 13. 2DS projections for investment costs of wind turbines 23
Figure 14. Growth in size of wind turbines since 1980 and prospects 27
Figure 15. Target for cost reductions of land-based wind power in the United States 28
Figure 16. Cost-reduction potential of offshore wind power plants, United Kingdom 30
Figure 17. Fixed-bottom foundation and floating offshore concepts 31
Figure 18. Bottlenecks in the European electricity network 37
Figure 19. China’s West-East electricity transfer project 39
Figure 20. From radial to fully meshed options for offshore grid development 40
Figure 21. OECD member country funding for wind energy R&D and share of energy R&D 50

List of boxes
Box 1. Modern wind turbine technology: major achievements over last five years 13
Box 2. ETP Scenarios: 6DS, 2DS, hiRen 19
Box 3. Abundance of rare earths 27
Box 4. UK projections for offshore cost reductions 29
Box 5. Co-ordinated transmission planning in Europe 38
Box 6. Geographic “smoothing” of variable output 43
Box 7. Attracting private finance 46

Table of contents 3
 Acknowledgements
This publication was prepared by the Renewable through discussions and early comments, but are
Energy Division (RED) of the International Energy too numerous to be named individually. Review
Agency (IEA). Cédric Philibert and Hannele comments were received from: Global Wind
Holttinen were the co-ordinators and main authors Energy Council (GWEC, Steve Sawyer); European
of this update, based on the original work of Hugo Wind Energy Association (EWEA, Jacopo Moccia
Chandler. Paolo Frankl, Head of RED, provided and Vilma Radvilaite); American Wind Energy
invaluable guidance and input, as did Keisuke Association (AWEA, Michael Goggin and others);
Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security US Department of Energy (DOE, Jim Ahlgrimm,
at the IEA. Cecilia Tam, in her role as Technology Benjamin Chicoski and Richard Tusing); National
Roadmap Co-ordinator, made important Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, Maureen
contributions through the drafting process. Several Hand, Paul Veers, Patrick Moriarty, Aaron Smith,
other IEA colleagues also provided important Brian Smith and Robert Thresher); Lawrence
contributions, in particular Heymi Bahar, Daniel Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL, Ryan Wiser); GL
Moeller, Simon Mueller, Alvaro Portellano, Uwe Garrad Hassan (Paul Gardner); Iberdrola (Angeles
Remme and Michael Waldron. Santamaria Martin); Acciona (Carmen Becerril
Martinez); General Electric (GE, Bart Stoffer and
The IEA Implementing Agreement on Wind Izabela Kielichowa); HIS CERA (Susanne Hounsell);
Energy Systems provided valuable comments and Energinet.dk (Antje Orths); Laboratòrio Nacional
suggestions. Edgar DeMeo of Renewable Energy de Energia e Geologia (LNEG, Ana Estanqueiro);
Consulting Services, Inc. provided valuable input. Strathclyde Uni (David Infield); Utility Variable-
Generation Integration Group (UVIG, J. Charles
The authors would also like to thank Marilyn
Smith); WindLogics (Mark Ahlstrom), Marguerite
Smith for editing the manuscript as well as the IEA
Fund (Michael Dedieu); Green Giraffe (Jerome
Publication Unit, in particular Muriel Custodio,
Guillet); Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW,
Astrid Dumond, Angela Gossmann, Cheryl Haines
Andrew Eckhardt); HgCapital (Tom Murley); and
and Bertrand Sadin for their assistance on layout
ABB (Hannu Vaananen).
and editing.
For more information on this document, contact:
Finally, this roadmap would not be effective without
Technology Roadmaps
all of the comments and support received from
International Energy Agency
the industry, government and non-government
9, rue de la Fédération
experts who attended the workshop, reviewed
75739 Paris Cedex 15
and commented on the drafts, and provided
France
overall guidance and support. The authors wish to
Email: [email protected]
thank all of those, such as workshop participants
(Vienna, 4 February 2013), who gave inputs

4 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Key findings and actions
z S
 ince 2008, wind power deployment has more to improve design, materials, manufacturing
than doubled, approaching 300 gigawatts technology and reliability, to optimise
(GW) of cumulative installed capacities, led by performance and to reduce uncertainties for plant
China (75 GW), the United States (60 GW) and output. To date, wind power has received only 2%
Germany (31 GW). Wind power now provides of public energy R&D funding: greater investment
2.5% of global electricity demand – and up to is needed to achieve wind’s full potential.
30% in Denmark, 20% in Portugal and 18% in
Spain. Policy support has been instrumental in z A
 s long as markets do not reflect climate
stimulating this tremendous growth. change and other environmental externalities,
accompanying the cost of wind energy to
z P
 rogress over the past five years has boosted competitive levels will need transitional policy
energy yields (especially in low-wind-resource support mechanisms.
sites) and reduced operation and maintenance
(O&M) costs. Land-based wind power generation z T
 o achieve high penetrations of variable wind
costs range from USD 60 per megawatt hour power without diminishing system reliability,
(USD/MWh) to USD 130/‌MWh at most sites. It can improvements are needed in grid infrastructure
already be competitive where wind resources are and in the flexibility of power systems as well as
strong and financing conditions are favourable, in the design of electricity markets.
but still requires support in most countries.
z T
 o engage public support for wind, improved
Offshore wind technology costs levelled off after
techniques are required to assess, minimise and
a decade-long increase, but are still higher than
mitigate social and environmental impacts and
land-based costs.
risks. Also, more vigorous communication is
z T
 his roadmap targets 15% to 18% share of global needed on the value of wind energy and the role
electricity from wind power by 2050, a notable of transmission in meeting climate targets and in
increase from the 12% aimed for in 2009. The protecting water, air and soil quality.
new target of 2 300 GW to 2 800 GW of installed
wind capacity will avoid emissions of up to
4.8 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2)
Key actions in the
per year. next ten years
z A
 chieving these targets requires rapid scaling z S
 et long-term targets, supported by predictable
up of the current annual installed wind power mechanisms to drive investment and to apply
capacity (including repowering), from 45 GW in appropriate carbon pricing.
2012 to 65 GW by 2020, to 90 GW by 2030 and to
104 GW by 2050. The annual investment needed z A
 ddress non-economic barriers. Advance
would be USD 146 billion to USD 170 billion. planning of new plants by including wind power
in long-term land and maritime spatial planning;
z T
 he geographical pattern of deployment is develop streamlined procedures for permitting;
rapidly changing. While countries belonging address issues of land-use and sea-use constraints
to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation posed by various authorities (environment,
and Development (OECD) led early wind building, traffic, defence and navigation).
development, from 2010 non-OECD countries
installed more wind turbines. After 2030, non- z S
 trengthen research, development and
OECD countries will have more than 50% of demonstration (RD&D) efforts and financing.
global installed capacity. Increase current public funding by two- to five-
fold to drive cost reductions of turbines and
z W
 hile there are no fundamental barriers to support structures, to increase performance and
achieving – or exceeding – these goals, several reliability (especially in offshore and other new
obstacles could delay progress including costs, market areas) and to scale up turbine technology
grid integration issues and permitting difficulties. for offshore.
z T
 his roadmap assumes the cost of energy from z A
 dapt wind power plant design to specific local
wind will decrease by as much as 25% for land- conditions (e.g. cold climates and low-wind sites),
based and 45% for offshore by 2050 on the penetration rates, grid connection costs and the
back of strong research and development (R&D) effects of variability on the entire system.

Key findings and actions 5

 z Improve processes for planning and permitting z Increase public acceptance by raising awareness
transmission across large regions; modernise of the benefits of wind power (including emission
grid operating procedures (e.g. balancing area reductions, security of supply and economic
co-ordination and fast-interval dispatch and growth), and of the accompanying need for
scheduling); increase power system flexibility additional transmission.
using ancillary services from all (also wind)
generation and demand response; and expand z E nhance international collaboration in R&D
and improve electricity markets, and adapt their and standardisation, large-scale testing
operation for variable generation. harmonisation, and improving wind integration.
Exchange best practices to help overcome
deployment barriers.

6 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Introduction
There is a pressing need to accelerate the ETP 2012 shows wind providing 15% to 18% of the
development of advanced energy technologies necessary CO2 reductions in the electricity sector
in order to address the global challenges of in 2050, up from the 12% projected in Energy
clean energy, climate change and sustainable Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA, 2008). This
development. To achieve emission reductions increase in wind compensates for slower progress in
envisioned, the IEA has undertaken an effort to the intervening years in the area of carbon capture
develop a series of global technology roadmaps, and storage (CCS) and higher costs for nuclear
under international guidance and in close power. Yet, it also reflects faster cost reductions for
consultation with industry. These technologies are some renewables, including wind.
evenly divided among demand-side and supply-side
technologies and include several renewable energy Wind energy, like other power technologies based on
roadmaps (www.iea.org/roadmaps/). renewable resources, is widely available throughout
the world and can contribute to reduced energy
The overall aim is to advance global development import dependence. As it entails no fuel price risk or
and uptake of key technologies to limit global mean constraints, it also improves security of supply. Wind
temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) in the power enhances energy diversity and hedges against
long term. The roadmaps will enable governments price volatility of fossil fuels, thus stabilising costs of
and industry and financial partners to identify steps electricity generation in the long term.
needed and implement measures to accelerate
required technology development and uptake. Wind power entails no direct greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and does not emit other pollutants (such
The roadmaps take a long-term view, but highlight as oxides of sulphur and nitrogen); additionally,
in particular the key actions that need to be taken it consumes no water. As local air pollution and
by different stakeholders in the next five to ten years extensive use of fresh water for cooling of thermal
to reach their goals. This is because the actions power plants are becoming serious concerns in
undertaken within the next decade will be critical hot or dry regions, these benefits of wind become
to achieve long-term emission reductions. Existing increasingly important.
conventional plants together with those under
construction lead to a lock-in of CO2 emissions as
they will be operating for decades. According to the Purpose of the
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 (ETP 2012),
early retirement of 850 GW of existing coal capacity roadmap update
would be required to reach the goal of limiting
The wind roadmap was one of the initial roadmaps
climate change to 2°C. Therefore, it is crucial to
developed by the IEA in 2008/09. This document
build up low-carbon energy supply today.
is an update of that earlier document, outlining
progress made in the last four years, as well as
presenting updated goals and actions. This updated
Rationale for wind power in roadmap presents a new vision that takes into
the overall energy context account this progress of wind technologies as well
changing trends in the overall energy mix.
ETP 2012 projects that – in the absence of new
policies – CO2 emissions from the energy sector It presents a detailed assessment of the technology
will increase by 84% over 2009 levels by 2050 (IEA, milestones that wind energy will need to reach
2012a). The ETP 2012 model examines competition the ambitious targets presented in the vision. The
among a range of technology solutions that can key objective is to seek measures to improve wind
contribute to preventing this increase: greater technology performance and reduce its costs in
energy efficiency, renewable energy, nuclear order to achieve the competitiveness needed for the
power and the near-decarbonisation of fossil fuel- large investments foreseen.
based power generation. Rather than projecting
The roadmap also provides an extensive list of
the maximum possible deployment of any given
non-economic barriers that hamper deployment
solution, the ETP 2012 model calculates the least-
and identifies policy actions to overcome them.
cost mix to achieve the CO2 emission reduction goal
For instance, addressing issues such as permitting
needed to limit climate change to 2°C (the ETP 2012
processes and public acceptance, transmission and
2°C Scenario [2DS]; Figure 1 and Box 1).
system integration is critically important.

Introduction 7
 This roadmap thus identifies actions and time This roadmap is organised into seven major
frames to achieve the higher wind deployment sections. First, the current state of the wind industry
needed for targeted global emission reductions. and progress since 2008 is discussed, followed
In some markets, certain actions will already have by a section that describes the targets for wind
been taken, or will be underway. Many countries, energy deployment between 2010 and 2050 based
particularly in emerging regions, are only just on ETP 2012. This discussion includes information
beginning to develop wind energy. Accordingly, on the regional distribution of wind generation
milestone dates should be considered as indicative projects and the associated investment needs, as
of urgency, rather than as absolutes. Individual well as the potential for cost reductions.
countries will have to choose what to prioritise in
the rather comprehensive action lists, based on their The next three sections describe approaches
mix of energy and industrial policies. and specific tasks required to address the major
challenges facing large-scale wind deployment
This roadmap is addressed to a variety of audiences, in three major areas, namely wind technology
including policy-makers, industry, utilities, development; transmission and grid integration;
researchers and other stakeholders. It provides a policy framework development, public engagement
consistent overall picture of wind power at global and international collaboration.
and continental levels. It further aims at triggering
and informing the elaboration of action plans, The final section sets out next steps and categorises
target setting or updating, as well as roadmaps of the actions from the previous sections by
wind power deployment at national level. stakeholders (policy makers, industry and power
system actors) to help guide their efforts to
successfully implement the roadmap activities and
Roadmap process, content achieve the global wind deployment targets.

and structure
This roadmap was developed with inputs from
diverse stakeholders representing the wind
industry, the power sector, R&D institutions, the
finance community, and government institutions.
Following a workshop to identify technological
and deployment issues, a draft was circulated
to participants and a wide range of additional
reviewers. It is consistent with the Long Term R&D
Needs Report of the Implementing Agreement
for Co-operation in the Research, Development
and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems (Wind
Implementing Agreement [IA], 2013).

8 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Wind energy progress since 2008
Wind energy is developing towards a mainstream, in wind energy in 2012 was USD 76.56 billion
competitive and reliable power technology. (Liebreich, 2013). Among the largest clean energy
Globally, progress continues to be strong, with projects financed in 2012 were four offshore wind
more active countries and players, and increasing sites (216 megawatts [MW] to 400 MW) in the
annual installed capacity and investments. German, United Kingdom and Belgian waters of the
Technology improvements have continuously North Sea, with investments of EUR 0.8 billion to
reduced energy costs, especially on land. The EUR 1.6 billion (USD 1.1 billion to USD 2.1 billion).
industry has overcome supply bottlenecks and
expanded supply chains. Thriving markets exist where deployment
conditions are right. Progress made since 2008
shows a positive trend: in 2012, wind power
Recent developments generated about 2.6% of global electricity (Table 1)
while capacity and production information for wind
in wind markets resources around the globe show steady expansion
(Figure 2).
Since 2000, cumulative installed capacity has grown
at an average rate of 24% per year (%/yr) (Figure 1).
In 2012, about 45 GW of new wind power capacity
were installed in more than 50 countries, bringing
global onshore and offshore capacity to a total of
282 GW (GWEC, 2013; IEA, 2013). New investment

Figure 1: Global cumulative growth of wind power capacity

300 40%

35%
250
30%
200
25%
GW

150 20%

15%
100
10%
50
5%

0 0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Denmark France Germany Italy Portugal Spain United Kingdom United States China India
Rest of the world Annual growth (%)
Source: unless otherwise indicated, all material in figures and tables derive from IEA data and analysis.

KEY POINT: cumulative wind power capacity grew at almost 25%/yr on average.

Wind energy progress since 2008 9

 Table 1: Progress in wind power since 2008
End of 2008 End of 2012
Total installed capacity 122 GW 282 GW
Annual installed capacity 28 GW 45 GW
Annual investment USD 52 billion USD 78 billion
Number of countries with GW installed 17 24
Number of countries with 500 MW yearly market 10 14
Wind generation during the year 254 TWh 527 TWh

Wind penetration levels % of yearly electricity consumption

Global 1.3 2.5
Europe 4.0 6.0
Of which:
z Denmark 20.0 29.9
z Ireland 9.0 14.5
z Portugal 9.0 20.0
z Spain 9.0 17.8
United States 1.9 3.5
China < 1.0 2.0
Note: TWh = terawatt hour.
Source: IEA, 2013; Wind IA, 2013.

Large-scale offshore deployment has started, more Repowering, i.e. replacing “old” wind turbines
slowly than initially hoped, mostly in Europe. By the with more modern and productive equipment,
end of 2012, 5.4 GW had been installed (up from is on the rise. Repowering is shown to increase
1.5 GW in 2008), mainly in the United Kingdom wind power while reducing its footprint. A 2 MW
(3 GW) and Denmark (1 GW), with large offshore wind turbine with an 80 metre (m) diameter rotor
wind power plants installed in Belgium, China, now generates four to six times more electricity
Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. Additional than a 500 kW 40 m diameter rotor built in 1995.
offshore turbines are operating in Norway, Japan, Repowering began in Denmark and Germany, and
Portugal and Korea, while new projects are planned has expanded to India, Italy, Portugal, Spain, the
in France and the United States. In the United United Kingdom and the United States. In Germany,
Kingdom, 46 GW of offshore projects are registered, 325 turbines totalling 196 MW were replaced in
of which around 10 GW have been progressing to 2012 with 210 turbines of 541 MW in total. On the
consenting, construction or operation. pioneer site Altamont Pass in California, NextEra is
replacing 780 old turbines with only 34 turbines of
An increasing number of turbines are being installed 2.3 MW. GlobalData expects repowering to grow
in cold climates, where they are exposed to icy dramatically over the coming five years, increasing
conditions and/or low temperatures outside the annual power generation at repowered sites from
design limits of standard wind turbines (Wind 1.5 TWh to 8.2 TWh by 2020 (Lawson, 2013).
IA, 2012). At the end of 2012, nearly 69 GW of
installed capacity were estimated to be located in Most wind turbine manufacturers are concentrated
cold climate areas in Scandinavia, North America, in six countries (the United States, Denmark,
Europe and Asia, of which 19 GW were in areas with Germany, Spain, India and China), with components
temperatures below 20°C and the rest subject to supplied from a wide range of countries. Market
icing risks. Between 45 GW and 50 GW of additional shares have changed in the past five years. New
capacity are likely to be installed in cold climates players from China are growing and have started
before end 2017 (Navigant, 2013a). exporting; the six largest Chinese companies
(among the top 15 manufacturers globally) together
have exceeded 20% of market share in recent years.

10 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 2: Global wind map, installed capacity and production for lead countries

France 12.5 0.9 14.9 2.7% Denmark 4.6 0.4 10 33.7%

United Kingdom 8.4 1.9 19.4 6% Germany 31.3 2.2 46 7.7% China
Ireland 1.7 0.1 4 14.5% 75.7 13 100 2%

United States
58.8 13.1 140.9 3.5%

Italy
Portugal
8 1.1 13.2 4%
4.5 0.3 10.3 20%

India
18.4 2.3 29.1 2.7%

Spain
22.8 1.3 49.2 17.8%

Wind speed (m/s)

5 km wind map at 80m
3 6 9
Cumulative installed capacity (GW) in 2012 Additional capacity (GW) in 2012 TWh from wind energy in 2012 Share of windpower in electricity generation in 2012
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Note: wind speeds at 80 m height are shown with 15 km resolution.

Source: resource data from Wiser et al., 2011; production and capacity data from IEA, 2013.

KEY POINT: good wind resources are found in many regions, notably in the United States, Europe
and China, which lead the global market.

Denmark, the pioneering country, had about half The wind industry has contributed substantially to
of global markets in 2005, but Danish companies the socio-economic development of several regions.
represented only 20% of operating turbines in 2012 A clear example is significant job creation in Spain
– still a huge amount for a country that has slightly during the first decade of the century, where a
more than 1% of global installed wind capacity sound support scheme attracted several foreign
(Navigant, 2013a). In addition to Denmark, strong industrial companies across the value chain for wind
manufacturers in Spain and Germany make Europe projects, together with a strong local industry. The
a large exporter of wind technology; in 2010, net United Kingdom is currently attracting industry
exports were EUR 5.7 billion (EWEA, 2012). The because of its thriving offshore wind market (Crown
United States and India are also among the large Estate, 2012a): between 2007 and 2010, jobs in
manufacturing countries. The US market now the sector grew by nearly 30% (EWEA, 2012). Jobs
comprises 559 wind-related manufacturing facilities in the wind industry (both direct and indirect)
and domestic content is 67% (up from less than reached approximately 265 000 in both China and
25% before 2005) while imports are down to 33% the European Union (of which 118 000 in Germany),
from 75% (Wiser and Bolinger, 2012). Countries 81 000 in the United States, 48 000 in India and
with emerging manufacturers include France and 29 000 in Brazil (REN21, 2013). Employment figures
Korea, while Brazil has an increasing number of are not easy to compare across technologies, but
manufacturing facilities. wind generally provides more jobs per investment

Wind energy progress since 2008 11

 than generation from coal and natural gas. An ratio of capacity over swept area, has pushed up
estimate for the United States finds that wind capacity factors considerably for the same wind
provides 0.10 job-years/GWh to 0.26 job years/‌GWh, speeds (Figure 3). Reducing the energy cost has
while the rate is 0.11 job‑years/‌G Wh for both coal been the primary driver of this evolution, which
and natural gas (Wei et al., 2010). An estimate for might also have positive implications at system level
Spain shows that per EUR 1 million invested, the (see System integration: actions and time frame).
wind industry creates 15 jobs/yr while combined
cycle gas turbines (CCGT) create six jobs/yr (Ernst & This trend has also led to the emergence of rotors
Young, 2012). designed for lower wind speeds, having even
smaller specific power, with high masts and long
blades in relation to generator size – and even
Technology improvements higher capacity factors. This allows installing wind
turbines in lower-wind-speed areas, which are often
The general trend in turbine design has been to closer to consumption centres than the best “windy
increase the height of the tower, the length of spots”. As this avoids installation in areas that are
the blades and the power capacity. On average, sensitive for environment and landscape integration
however, turbines have grown in height and rotor (seashores, mountain ridges, etc.), this practice
diameter more rapidly than have their power lowers the potential for opposition and conflicts
capacities. This decrease in the specific power, or (Chabot, 2013).

Figure 3: Capacity factors of selected turbine types

55%

50%

45%
Capacity factors

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%
5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
Wind speed at 50 m height
2002-03 standard equipment 2009-10 standard equipment 2012-2013 standard equipment
2012-2013 low windspeed (80 m tower) 2012-2013 low windspeed (100 m tower)

Source: Wiser et al., 2012.

KEY POINT: turbine design advancement in ten years allows for significant increase in capacity factors.

Advances in blade design, often with better of the tower and two-bladed rotors. Offshore wind
materials and also advanced control strategies, turbines are evolving from the earlier “marinised”
have contributed to increased yields from the versions of land-based models towards dedicated
turbines relative to their installed capacity. Since offshore turbines of increased size, exploring
2008, the share of gearless or direct-drive turbines different sub-structures such as jackets and tripods.
has increased from 12% to 20%. Other design Further improvements involving the design are
variations being pursued include rotors downwind anticipated.

12 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Box 1: Modern wind turbine technology: major achievements over last five years

While several technical designs Wind turbines generate electricity from wind
are in use today, most grid-connected large speeds ranging from 3 metres per second
turbines have three blades in a horizontal axis (m/s) or 4 m/s to 25 m/s (even 34 m/s with
rotor that can be pitched to control the power storm control). The availability of a wind
output. The size of the wind turbines continues turbine is the proportion of time that it is
to increase; the average rated capacity of technically ready for use, a useful indication of
new grid-connected turbines in 2012 was O&M requirements, and the reliability of the
about 1.8 MW compared to 1.6 MW in 2008 technology in general. Onshore availabilities
(Navigant, 2013a). For offshore, the average are usually more than 95%. Availability of
installed turbine size has grown from 3 MW in offshore wind power plants in Denmark and
2008 to 4 MW in 2012. As of 2012, the largest Sweden have been mostly between 92% and
commercial wind turbine available is 7.5 MW, 98%, but some years of lower availabilities have
with a rotor diameter of 127 m, and several occurred. In the Netherlands and the United
larger diameter turbines are available (up to Kingdom, offshore power plants availabilities
164 m). Turbines with a rated capacity ranging have been less than 90% in the first years of
from 1.5 MW to 2.5 MW still comprise the operation, but in most cases have recovered
largest market segment. towards 95% (GL Garrad Hassan, 2013a).

Wind power output varies as the wind rises and falls. that few physical changes to power systems are
At low penetration levels, wind variability adds only needed until penetration exceeds 20%. Considerable
incrementally to the existing variability in electricity progress has been made since 2008 in forecasting
supply and demand, but variability and uncertainty the output of wind power plants. In Spain, for
become significant as wind penetrations increase. example, day-ahead errors have been reduced by
Recent years have seen more countries and regions one-third (Figure 4). Moreover, a vast majority of
reach high penetration levels of close to 20% of wind turbines now installed have fault ride-through
yearly electricity consumption from wind power. capabilities and offer active and reactive power
The experience gained in wind integration shows control, thanks to power electronics developments.

Figure 4: Evolution of forecasting errors since 2008

Source: Red Electrica, 2013.

KEY POINT: day-ahead errors in Spain have been reduced by one-third since 2008,
a result of dramatically improved forecasting technologies.

Wind energy progress since 2008 13

 Advancing towards Investment costs
competitiveness In the previous version of the IEA Wind Roadmap
(IEA, 2009), the investment costs for onshore
Where the resource is good, and conventional wind energy – including turbine, grid connection,
generation costs are high, onshore wind energy foundations, infrastructure and installation – ranged
may be competitive with newly built conventional from USD 1.45 per watt (USD/W) to USD 2.60/W.
power plants today. This is the case in Brazil, The range today is even larger, spanning from the
where recent power auctions saw wind bids as low low USD 1.10/W in China to the high USD 2.60/W
as USD 42/MWh. Australia, Chile, Mexico, New in Japan (IEA, 2013); mid-range prices are found in
Zealand, Turkey and South Africa also see land- the United States (USD 1.60/W) and Western Europe
based wind power competing or close to competing (USD 1.70/W).
with new coal- or gas-fired plants. Competitiveness,
however, is not yet the norm and reducing the Following a period of steady decline, investment
levellised cost of energy (LCOE)1 from wind remains costs rose considerably in 2004-09, doubling in
a primary objective for the wind industry. 2 Pricing the United States for example. This increase was
CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion to reflect due mostly to supply constraints on turbines and
climate change externalities would help wind components (including gear boxes, blades and
achieve competitiveness more rapidly. bearings), as well as higher commodity prices,
particularly for steel and copper (the increase in
1. The LCOE represents the present value of the total cost
commodity prices also affected conventional power
(overnight capital cost, fuel cost, fixed and variable O&M costs, production). Since 2009, investment costs have
and financing costs) of building and operating a generating plant fallen along with commodity costs and the reversal
over an assumed financial life and duty cycle, converted to equal
annual payments, given an assumed utilisation, and expressed in
of supply constraint trends as well as increased
terms of real money to remove inflation. competition among manufacturers. All factors
2. The Wind IA “Task 26: Cost of Wind Energy” group has published considered, investment price declined by 33% or
a standard methodology to assess wind energy costs. (Schwabe more since late 2008 (Figure 5).
et al., 2011).

Figure 5: Cost trend of land-based wind turbine prices, by contract date

1.3

1.2

1.1
EUR/W

0.9

0.8

0.7
11

11

12

12

13
10

10
09

09
06

07

07

08

08

20

20

20

20

20
20

20
20

20

20

20
20

20

20

H1

H2

H1

H2

H1
H1

H2
H1

H2

H1

H2
H2

H1

H2

Cost of turbines

Note: data exclude Asian turbines.

Source: Tabbush, 2013a.

KEY POINT: investment costs for onshore wind power have declined steadily since 2007.

14 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Investment costs for offshore wind can be The investment costs of offshore wind in the United
two to three times higher than onshore wind Kingdom have significantly increased since the first
developments, but limited data on offshore costs commercial-scale wind power plants were deployed
make it difficult to calculate accurate estimates. in the early 2000s. This results from underlying cost
It is known that in offshore projects, the turbine increases, reliability concerns and deeper water
accounts for less than half of the investment cost, sites: while earlier plants were in relatively shallow
compared to three-quarters for land-based projects. waters, most new plants since 2010 are located
Offshore projects incur additional expenses for in water depth exceeding 20 m (Crown Estate,
foundation, electric infrastructure and installation 2012a). Recently announced wind power plants for
costs, which vary with distance from shore and similar sites show that capital costs have levelled
water depth. In 2008, offshore investment costs off at GPB 2.60/W to GBP 2.90/W (USD 4.00/W to
ranged from USD 3.10/W to USD 4.70/W. Costs USD 4.40/W) including transmission capital costs
have increased in the 2010-13 period, spanning (Figure 6). This reflects several factors including a
from USD 3.60/W to USD 5.60/W (Wind IA, 2012; better understanding of the key risks in offshore
JRC, 2012). It should be noted that the low number wind construction and larger projects leading to
is from Denmark, and does not include grid greater economies of scale.
connection to the shore (Wind IA, 2012).

Figure 6: Capital costs of European offshore wind farms, by year (EUR/W)

8.0
7.0
Offshore wind farm capital

6.0
cost (2011EUR/W)

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year operational
Operational Under construction Contracted

Note: the bubble diameter is proportionate to wind farm capacity; EUR/W = EUR per watt.
Source: GL Garrad Hassan, 2013b.

KEY POINT: while technical advances since 2008 make it possible to install in deeper water,
they also drive up investment costs for offshore wind power.

O&M of technology: O&M requirements differ greatly,

according to the sophistication and age of the
The O&M costs of wind turbines represent an turbine. Problems with electrical and electronic
important component – 15% to 25% – in the systems are the most common causes of wind
cost of wind power. O&M activities typically turbine outages, although most of these faults can
include scheduled and unscheduled maintenance, be rectified quite quickly. Generator and gearbox
spare parts, insurance, administration, site rent, failures are less common, but take longer to fix and
consumables and power from the grid. Low are more costly.
availability of data makes it difficult to extrapolate
general cost figures, as does the rapid evolution

Wind energy progress since 2008 15

 Based on recent contracts, O&M shows a 44% (USD/‌kWh) to USD/kWh (Wiser and Bolinger, 2013).
decrease in average prices (as EUR per MW per For offshore projects, O&M cost range exhibits a
year [EUR/MW/yr]) from 2009 to 2013 (Figure 7). low of USD 20/‌M Wh (stable since 2007), while the
With a capacity factor of 25%, the 2013 costs for upper end has increased from USD 48/MWh in 2007
land-based would thus be EUR 7.90 per MWh (EUR/ to USD 70/MWh (NREL, 2012).
MWh) (USD 10.25/MWh). The span, however, can
be large ranging from USD 5 per kilowatt hour

Figure 7: R
 ecent trends in average price for full-service
O&M contracts (EUR/MW/yr)

35 000
30 990
30 000

25 000 21 745
20 120 19 152
20 000 17 312

15 000

10 000

5 000

0
July 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Prices in EUR/MW/year
Source: Tabbush, 2013b.

KEY POINT: O&M costs of land-based wind power have decreased by almost half since 2007.

LCOE speeds (Figure 8). More favourable terms for turbine

purchasers, such as faster delivery, less need for
The LCOE of wind energy can vary significantly large frame agreement orders, longer initial O&M
according to the quality of the wind resource, the contract durations, improved warranty terms and
investment cost, O&M requirements, the cost of more stringent performance guarantees, have also
capital, and also the technology improvements helped reduce costs (Wiser and Bolinger, 2013).
leading to higher capacity factors.
Higher wind speeds off shore mean that plants can
Turbines recently made available with higher hub produce up to 50% more energy than land-based
heights and larger rotor diameters offer increased ones, partly offsetting the higher investment costs.
energy capture. This counterbalances the decade- However, being in the range of USD 136/MWh to
long increase in investment costs, as the LCOE of USD 218/MWh, the LCOE seen in offshore projects
recent turbines is similar to that of projects installed constructed in 2010-12 is still high compared to
in 2002/03. For some sites, LCOEs of less than land-based (JRC, 2012; Crown Estate, 2012b). This
USD 50/MWh have been announced; this is true of reflects the trend of siting plants farther from the
the recent Brazil auctions and some private-public shore and in deeper waters, which increases the
agreements signed in the United States. Technology foundation, grid connection and installation costs.
options available today for low-wind speed – tall, Costs of financing have also been higher for larger
long-bladed turbines with greater swept area deals at new sites, as investors perceive higher risk.
per MW – reduce the range of LCOE across wind

16 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 8: E
 stimated change in the LCOE between low- and high-wind-speed sites

120

100
Levelised cost of energy (USD/MWh)
includes federal PTC and MACRS

80 39% cost reduction

6 m/s
60
7 m/s
40
8 m/s
24% cost reduction
20

0
2002-03 Current, 2012-13
standard technology technology choice
Source: Wiser et al., 2012.

KEY POINT: cost of land-based wind power has fallen more rapidly at low-wind sites
thanks to the use of larger rotors.

Barriers encountered, to avoid lengthy appeal processes, authorities

need to assess safety margins to buildings, radars,
overcome or outstanding roads, airports, etc., and address concerns about
the presence of bats and birds (such as raptors).
Since the first IEA Technology Roadmap on wind Still, the size of areas in which building wind
power was published in 2009, stakeholders have power plants is forbidden has been shrinking over
encountered – and gained experience in addressing time, as knowledge of actual impacts improves.
– several barriers that delay the deployment of wind Some management measures – such as stopping
energy and the achievement of targets set in energy the turbines when bird migration occurs – can
policy. Permit/authorisation delays and high costs also reduce negative environmental impacts and
for administrative and grid connection procedures facilitate obtaining permissions to build.
are issues in many countries. Other barriers relate
to the lengthy approval of environmental impact Financing of wind power remains a substantial
assessments (EIAs), compliance with spatial challenge, as it is relatively new territory for both
planning, the number of parties involved, an companies and financial institutions. Political
absence of information on the grid connection and regulatory stability are needed to counteract
capacity, a lack of planning for grid extension and perceived high risk, particularly in times of
reinforcements, insufficient grid capacity and land economic crisis, when banks reduced long-term
ownership. For example, the German offshore wind lending and have increased borrowing costs. Much
projects faced delays in 2011 due to financial and discussion has explored “alternative” providers of
technical issues. Delays in grid reinforcements also debt (private placements, debt funds, institutional,
led to curtailments of wind energy in China. etc.) – but so far the gap has not been closed.
Efforts to make public financing available can help
The permitting process for wind power plants can avoid higher cost of capital, yet is it also clear that
be complicated, long and expensive. Finding ways political and regulatory instability can severely
to simplify the process and co-ordinate among impact project viability and financing. There is
authorities can speed up considerably the building evidence of market fears of government making
of wind power. As public acceptance is needed

Wind energy progress since 2008 17

 retroactive changes to support schemes (as in Spain) Medium-term outlook
or ex-post creation on taxes on existing plants, and
of higher financing costs in some countries (as in Despite uncertainties and complications associated
India) (CPI, 2012). with the ongoing financial and economic crisis, the
prospects for both land-based and offshore wind
Project financing is particularly challenging power development in the next five years remain
in the offshore wind sector, which still faces positive (IEA, 2013).
high technological and construction risks. The
increasing scale and complexity of the innovative From a global perspective, land-based wind is
projects create a perception of higher risk, the projected to reach an installed capacity exceeding
main constraint to raising investments, but also 500 GW by 2018, despite a slow-down in 2013.
there is a lack of capital to fulfil the growing sector China will likely have the largest cumulative
needs. Funding support – grants for technology capacity with a total of 185 GW, followed by the
development and loans for deployment – is United States (92 GW), Germany (44 GW) and India
therefore of crucial importance. Specific measures (34.4 GW). Global production of land-based wind
may be needed to finance the offshore sector and power should reach 1 144 TWh in 2018, with non-
avoid specific delays in: OECD countries producing over 44%, a substantial
increase from less than 30% in 2012.
z s tarting the projects and achieving financing:
permitting for offshore areas may need new With strong support in some countries, offshore
procedures and the establishment of public wind progresses significantly to 2018, but its
financing options; and viability over the medium term ultimately depends
on tackling technical and financial challenges. By
z g
 rid connection: the regulator and system 2018, it should reach 28 GW, an impressive scaling
operators need to address future offshore plans up from 5.4 GW in 2012. Europe, led by the United-
in good time to establish planning and financing Kingdom, then Germany and Denmark, is driving
needed. much of the growth, representing almost two-thirds
of total cumulative capacity by 2018. China (28%),
the United States, Japan and Korea account for the
rest. By 2018, offshore wind should deliver 76 TWh
of electricity globally – a third of which from the
United Kingdom, followed by China.

18 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Vision for deployment and CO2 abatement
Theoretically, wind supply could meet global 2050. In the scenarios, global electricity production
energy needs several times over (Wiser et al., in 2050 is almost entirely based on zero-carbon
2011) while producing virtually no CO2 emissions. emitting energy technologies, including renewables
However, the amount of wind resources that can (57% to 70%); the higher the renewable share,
be harvested in a cost-effective manner is currently the lower the corresponding shares of fossil fuels
much smaller. Although the best sites deliver the with CCS (14% to 7%) and nuclear (17% to 11%).
most power in relation to the level of investment, Over the complete lifecycle of wind power plants,
and should be developed first, the economic emissions of CO2 are negligible.
potential for other sites will increase over time as
the technology matures, and as ways are found to At the system level, the variable nature of wind
increase the ability of power systems to incorporate power may require additional flexible reserves
greater wind energy production (e.g. through (e.g. combustion turbines) to respond to increased
expanded transmission networks and flexibility). variability and uncertainty in the power system.
Concerns have been expressed that this may raise
the CO2 emissions of the power sector, either as a
CO2 reduction targets from result of cycling losses or, in the longer term and
in some countries, as a result of a displacement of
the ETP 2012 Scenarios carbon-free but inflexible capacities (e.g. nuclear
power in France or Germany) with flexible fossil-
Wind power plants installed by end 2012 are fuelled plants. In reality, such cycling losses are
estimated to generate 580 TWh/yr of clean anticipated to be very small – i.e. less than 0.5%
electricity and thus avoid the emission of (GE Energy, 2012). Emission increases can be
about 455 MtCO2/yr. In the ETP 2012 2DS and seen in some countries, but will be limited by
hiRen Scenarios (IEA, 2012a) (see Box 2), which interconnections among countries. IEA modelling
this roadmap takes as its point of departure, scenarios indicate that related CO2 emissions will be
deployment of wind power contributes 14% to 17% much less than the emission reductions achieved by
of the power sector CO2 emissions reductions in wind power expansion.

Box 2: ETP Scenarios: 6DS, 2DS, hiRen

This roadmap has as a starting point the vision of nuclear than in 2DS. This hiRen Scenario
from the IEA ETP 2012 analysis, which describes is more challenging for renewables in the
diverse future scenarios for the global energy electricity sector.
system in 2050.
The ETP 2012 analysis is based on a bottom-
A Base Case Scenario, which is largely an up TIMES* model that uses cost optimisation
extension of current trends, projects that to identify least-cost mixes of energy
energy demand will almost double during the technologies and fuels to meet energy
intervening years (compared to 2009) and demand, given constraints such as the
associated CO2 emissions will rise even more availability of natural resources. Covering
rapidly, pushing the global mean temperature 28 world regions, the model permits the
up by 6°C (the 6°C Scenario [6DS]). An analysis of fuel and technology choices
alternative scenario sees energy systems throughout the energy system, representing
radically transformed to achieve the goal of about 1 000 individual technologies. It
limiting global mean temperature increase has been developed over several years and
to 2°C (the 2°C Scenario [2DS]). A third used in many analyses of the global energy
option, the High Renewables Scenario (hiRen sector. Recently, the ETP 2012 model was
Scenario), achieves the target with a larger supplemented with detailed demand-side
share of renewables, which requires faster models for all major end-uses in the industry,
and stronger deployment of wind power to buildings and transport sectors.
compensate for the assumed slower progress
* TIMES = The Integrated MARKAL(Marketing and Allocation
in the development of CCS and deployment Model)-EFOM (energy flow optimisation model) System.

Vision for deployment and CO2 abatement 19

 Figure 9: Global electricity mix by 2050 in the 2DS and hiRen scenario

45 000

40 000
Variables
35 000 22%
32%
30 000 Renewables
57%
25 000 71%
TWh

20 000

15 000

10 000

5 000

0
2009 2050 2050
2DS 2DS hi-REN

Coal Coal w. CCS Natural gas Nat. gas w. CCS Oil Nuclear Biomass and waste Biomass w. CCS
Hydropower Geothermal Solar CSP Solar PV Land-based wind Offshore wind Ocean

Source: IEA, 2012a.

KEY POINT: renewables could provide 57% to 71% of world’s electricity by 2050,
of which 22% to 32% would be variable.

Wind targets revised As offshore wind power remains more expensive,

deployment is expected to take place mainly on
upward compared to land. Offshore will, however, provide a growing
share and will increase to one-third of wind
2009 roadmap generation by 2050.
To achieve the targets set out in the 2DS and hiRen
China will overtake OECD Europe as the leading
Scenarios, it is necessary in this update to increase
producer of wind power, by 2020 in the 2DS and
considerably the wind capacity deployment that
by 2025 in hiRen; in both cases, the United States
was envisioned in 2009. Against the initial wind
will be the third-largest market. India and other
roadmap, the 2DS now sees a deployment of
developing countries in Asia emerge by 2020 as
1 400 GW in 2030 (compared to 1 000 GW) and
an important market. By 2050, China leads with
2 300 GW in 2050 (compared to 2 000 GW). In
1 600 TWh to 2 300 TWh, followed by OECD
terms of electricity generation, the 2DS foresees
Europe (1 300 TWh to 1 400 TWh) and the United
6 150 TWh in 2050 (almost a 20% increase), so that
States (1 000 TWh to 1 200 TWh), and then by other
wind achieves a 15% share in the global electricity
developing countries in Asia and the Middle East
mix (against 12%).
(Figure 10).
Wind capacity in the hiRen Scenario reaches
As wind penetration increases, CO2 abatement in
1 600 GW in 2030 and 2 700 GW in 2050, and
2050 from wind energy under the 2DS reaches a
generates 7 250 TWh, almost a one-fifth increase
total of 3 Gt/yr over the 6DS (see Box 2), or 4 Gt/‌yr
compared to the 2DS. In this scenario, the share of
if wind power was frozen at its current level (and
wind power in electricity generation increases to
a mix of fossil fuels being used to generate the
18% in 2050. The higher penetration of wind in the
difference in electricity). China makes the largest
hiRen is driven by a lower deployment of both CCS
and nuclear power.

20 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 10: Regional production of wind electricity in the 2DS and hiRen

Source: IEA, 2012a.

KEY POINT: principal wind markets up to 2050 are China, OECD Europe and the United States.

contribution with 1 GtCO2/yr avoided, followed by Under the hiRen additional reductions over the 6DS
the United States at 472 Mt, and other developing reach 4 Gt CO2/yr – or 4.8 Gt CO2/yr if wind power
Asia and Eastern Europe with 342 Mt (Figure 11). was frozen at its current level.

Figure 11: A
 dditional CO2 emissions reduction in 2050 by region
in the 2DS and hiRen (over the 6DS)

Latin America Latin America OECD Europe

OECD Europe
Eastern Europe and 73 Mt (2%) 260 Mt (9%) 60 Mt (2%) 290 Mt (8%)
FSU 293 Mt (10%) Eastern Europe and OECD Asia Oceanic
OECD Asia Oceanic FSU 352 Mt (9%)
99 Mt (3%) 135 Mt (4%)
United Sates
United States 501 Mt (13%)
472 Mt (16%)
Other OECD
2DS Other OECD hiRen North America
North America 58 Mt (2%)
China 67 Mt (2%) Africa 108 Mt (3%)
1 064 Mt Africa 108 Mt (4%)
(35%) China Other developing Asia
1 681 Mt 354 Mt (9%)
Other developing Asia
342 Mt (11%) (44%) Middle East
India Middle East India 158 Mt (4%)
110 Mt (4%) 143 Mt (5%) 131Mt (3%)

Source: IEA, 2012a.

KEY POINT: China accounts for 35% to 44% of additional CO2 reductions attributed to wind power in 2050.

Vision for deployment and CO2 abatement 21

 The wind industry suggests that production could (Figure 12) (GWEC, 2012). This corresponding
increase even more, with deployment reaching up advanced scenario would require an average annual
to 6 678 TWh from 2 500 GW capacities in 2030, installation rate of 250 GW, five times the present
and up to 12 651 TWh from 4 814 GW in 2050 installation rate.

Figure 12: Wind electricity production in the hiRen versus industry scenarios

14 000

12 000

10 000

8 000
TWh

6 000

4 000

2 000

0
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Land-based wind Wind offshore GWEC, 2012 (moderate) GWEC, 2012 (advanced)

Sources: IEA, 2012a; GWEC, 2012.

KEY POINT: industry foresees wind electricity by 2050 as being 75% higher than in hiRen.

Potential for Technology innovation, which will continue

to improve energy capture, reduce the cost of
cost reductions components, lower O&M needs and extend turbine
lifespan, remains a crucial driver for reducing LCOE
The main metric for improvements of technology (see Wind power technology). Larger markets will
is the cost for produced energy, for a certain site improve economies of scale, and manufacturing
holding constant the quality of wind resource. automation with stronger supply chains can yield
This will take into account both the improvements further cost reductions.
in extraction of energy as well as in the design
for producing the equipment with cost efficient Given its earlier state of development, offshore
material use. wind energy is likely to see faster reductions in cost.
Foundations and grid connection comprise a larger
The European Wind Initiative (EWI) targets share of total investment cost, with foundations
competitive land-based wind by 2020 and offshore having substantial cost-reduction potential. Greater
by 2030, as well as reducing the average cost of reliability, availability and reduced O&M cost are
wind energy by 20% by 2020 (in comparison to particularly important for offshore development as
2009 levels). The cost competitiveness will depend access can be difficult and expensive.
on costs of other technologies as well, and assumes
that externalities of fossil fuels are incorporated. The 2DS assumes a learning rate3 for wind energy of
7% on land and 9% off shore up to 2050, leading to
A compilation of trends from various publications is an overall cost reduction of 25% by 2050. Offshore
summarised in Wind IA Task 26 (2012) where most
LCOE estimates anticipate 20% to 30% reduction
3. L earning or experience curves reflect the reduction in capital
by 2030. costs achieved with each doubling of installed capacity.

22 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

investment costs are assumed to fall by 37% by The cost of generating energy is expected to
2030, and by 45% in 2050 (Figure 15). The analyses decrease by 26% on land and 52% off shore by 2050,
assume a 20% reduction of onshore O&M costs by assuming capacity factor increases from 26% to
2030, rising to 23% by 2050. Larger reductions are 31% on land and 36% to 42% off shore. All figures
anticipated for offshore O&M costs, of 35% in 2030 anticipate that improved wind turbine technology
and 43% in 2050. and better resource knowledge will more than offset
the possible saturation of excellent sites.

Figure 13: 2DS projections for investment costs of wind turbines

4 000

3 500

3 000

2 500
USD/kW

2 000

1 500

1 000

5 00

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Offshore Land-based
Source: IEA, 2012a.

KEY POINT: investment costs for wind power would decrease by 25% on land and 45% off shore by 2050.

Global investment to 2050 from wind energy in 2050. Cumulative investments

in wind in the 2DS account for 15% of the total
Approximately USD 5.5 trillion to USD 6.4 trillion investments (USD 36 trillion) in the power sector.
of investment will be required to reach the 2DS Close to 70% will be spent in China, OECD Europe
targets of 15% to 18% global electricity produced and OECD Americas together (Table 2).

Table 2: Cumulative investment in the 2DS (USD billion)

2010-20 2020-30 2030-50
OECD Europe 256 337 831
OECD Americas 209 455 628
OECD Asia Oceania 32 69 120
Africa and Middle East 42 173 194
China 305 385 839
India 36 38 158
Latin America 25 12 74
Other developing Asia 53 105 279
Other non-OECD 22 61 185
TOTAL 980 1 635 3 308

Vision for deployment and CO2 abatement 23

 Current investment in wind power deployment is would require the annual new capacity installed to
already considerable, with more and more countries grow from 45 GW in 2012 to 56 GW/yr to 65 GW/yr
getting involved: USD 76.560 billion of new on average for the next 38 years, or up to 93 GW/‌yr
investment was reported in 2012 (Liebreich, 2013). taking into account repowering. On average,
The 2DS scenarios project the sector to grow from annual investments should double to between
282 GW of installed capacity at the end of 2012 to USD 150 billion and USD 170 billion.
between 2 346 GW and 2 777 GW in 2050. This

24 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Wind technology development:
actions and time frames
Increased efforts in wind technology R&D are z s upply chains, manufacturing and installation
essential to realising the vision of this roadmap, issues.
with a main focus on reducing the investment costs
In light of continually evolving technology,
and increasing performance and reliability to reach
continued efforts in standards and certification
a lower LCOE. Good resource and performance
procedures will be crucial to ensure the high
assessments are also important to reduce
reliability and successful deployment of new wind
financing costs.
power technologies. Mitigating environmental
Wind energy technology is already proven and impacts is also important to pursue.
making progress. No single element of onshore
This roadmap draws from the Wind IA Long-term
turbine design is likely to reduce dramatically the
R&D Needs report, which examines most technology
cost of energy in the years ahead. Design and
development areas in more detail (Wind IA,
reliability can be improved in many areas, however;
forthcoming).
when taken together, these factors will reduce
both cost of energy and the uncertainties that stifle
investment decisions. Greater potential for cost
reductions, or even technology breakthrough, exists Wind power technology
in the offshore sector. Cost reduction is the main driver for technology
Actions related to technology development fall into development but others include grid compatibility,
three main categories: acoustic emissions, visual appearance and suitability
for site conditions (EWI, 2013). Reducing the
z w
 ind power technology: turbine technology cost of components, as well as achieving better
and design with corresponding development of performance and reliability (thereby optimising
system design and tools, advanced components, O&M), all result in reducing the cost of energy.
O&M, reliability and testing;

z w
 ind characteristics: assessment of wind energy
resource with resource estimates for siting,
wind and external conditions for the turbine
technology, and short-term forecasting methods;

System design Time frames

1. Wind turbines for diverse operating conditions: specific designs for cold Ongoing. Commercial-scale
and icy climates, tropical cyclones and low-wind conditions. prototypes by 2015.
2. Systems engineering: to provide an integrated approach to optimising
the design of wind plants from both performance and cost optimisation Ongoing. Complete by 2020.
perspectives.
3. Wind turbine and component design: improve models and tools
Ongoing. Complete by 2020.
to include more details and improve accuracy.
4. Wind turbine scaling: 10 MW to 20 MW range turbine design to push
Ongoing. Complete by 2020-25.
for improved component design and references for offshore conditions.
5. Floating offshore wind plants: numerical design tools and novel designs
Ongoing. Complete by 2025.
for deep offshore.
Advanced components Time frames
6. Advanced rotors: smart materials and stronger, lighter materials to enable
larger rotors; improved aerodynamic models, novel rotor architectures Ongoing. Complete by 2025.
and active blade elements.
7. Drive-train and power electronics: advanced generator designs; alternative
materials for rare earth magnets and power electronics; improved grid Ongoing. Complete by 2025.
support through power electronics; reliability improvements of gearboxes.
8. Support structures: new tower materials, new foundations for deep waters
Ongoing. Complete by 2025.
and floating structures.
9. Wind turbine and wind farm controls: to reduce loads and aerodynamic
Ongoing. Complete by 2020-25.
losses.

Wind technology development: actions and time frames 25

 O&M reliability and testing Time frames
10. Operational data management: develop standardised and automated
wind plant data management processes; build shared database of Ongoing. Complete by 2015.
offshore operating experiences.
11. Diagnostic methods and preventive maintenance: develop condition
monitoring, predictive maintenance tools and maintenance practices, Ongoing. Complete by 2015.
especially off shore.
12. Testing facilities and methods: develop advanced testing methods and
Ongoing. Complete by 2020.
build facilities to test large components.
13. Increase technical availability: target for offshore turbines to current best-
Ongoing. Complete by 2020-25.
in-class of 95%; minimum O&M requirement for remote locations.

System design R&D targets for up-scaling to 10 MW to 20 MW

turbines will push the technology towards new
Moving towards specific wind turbines for solutions, which may help reduce costs for the
diverse operating conditions requires deeper 2 MW to 5 MW turbine size (seen as sufficient for
understanding of the conditions in which a wind most applications). Optimum size for both land-
power plant will operate over its lifetime. The aim is based and offshore applications is still to be solved
to develop more cost-effective turbine designs with (EWI, 2013). Further enlargement of land-based
the ability to extract more energy from the wind, turbines is limited by logistics constraints as well as
over a longer lifetime and in specific operating sound and visibility regulations. Offshore up-scaling
environments. Wind turbine manufacturers will bring more direct benefits. A comprehensive
planning to offer so-called “cold climate packages” evaluation by the UpWind Project (funded by the
will need to use special materials and components, European Union) found a 20 MW turbine technically
including specialised measurement systems, heaters feasible, with need for significant advances in
or pre-heaters for components and subsystems, and materials, design architectures, controls capabilities
even nacelle heating to allow comfortable turbine and other factors (UpWind, 2011). Achieving the
maintenance. Anti- or de-icing systems for blades vastly larger turbines expected in future generations
most often use electro-thermal heating elements. will require new R&D and innovations to offset or
Special foundations may be needed in permafrost. mitigate the mass increases that would be assumed
from classical scaling-up theory (Figure 14).
System design needs tool development to minimise
loads across the components to optimise for specific
conditions including offshore, cold and icy climates,
Advanced components
tropical cyclone climates and low-wind speeds. Advanced rotors, with larger swept area and higher
Improving model tools requires measurement reach, provide greater energy capture and have
campaigns both in the field and in controlled already reduced the cost of wind energy. As rotors
test facilities. become larger with longer, more flexible blades,
a fuller understanding of their behaviour during
Optimising power-to-swept area ratios is
operation is required to inform new designs. Noise
important to achieve lowest LCOEs, especially
reduction technologies are important to increase
at low-wind-speed sites (Molly, 2012). If this
the amount of land available for wind projects.
optimisation includes connecting costs it may lead
Other promising technologies can be developed
to different results,4 as the reduction in connection
to improve blade pitch control and advance
costs might be important, especially for offshore
blade bearing and pitch systems and hub design,
wind farms far from shore. Also, the reduced
materials and manufacture.
variability offered by the weaker turbines is likely to
facilitate the handling of large shares of wind power Drive-train component improvements can be
in the electricity mix. realised through a comprehensive optimisation
4. Consider, for example, a “strong” turbine of specific power
of the whole turbine. Increased controls, through
(relative to the swept area) of 530 W/m2, assuming on a given site power electronics, can reduce loads and material
a capacity factor of 32.4%. On the same site, a “weak” turbine of
only 294 W/‌m2 will have a capacity factor of 48.9%. For same swept
intensity. Hydraulic drive-train designs, in which a
areas, the weak turbine will generate only 83.7% of the electricity of
a strong turbine, but will require a connecting line of only 55.5% of
the capacity of that needed for the strong turbine (Molly, 2011).

26 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 14: Growth in size of wind turbines since 1980 and prospects

320
300 Rotor diametre (m)
280 Rating (kW) 250 m
260 20 000 kW
240 150 m Future
220 10 000 kW wind turbines
125 m
200
Hub height (m)

5 000 kW
180 100 m
160 3 000 kW
140 80 m
120 70 m 1 800 kW
1 500 kW
100 50 m
80 750 kW
30 m
60 17 m 300 kW
40 75 kW
20
0
Future Future
19 90

-10

20
19 -95

15
00

-0

20
0-

20
05
90

00
-2
8

-
10
20
19

95

15
20

20

20

Source: adapted from EWEA, 2009.

KEY POINT: scaling up turbines to lower costs has been effective so far,
but it is not clear the trend can continue forever.

hydraulic system replaces the mechanical gearbox, grid support capabilities from wind power plants.
are also a possibility. Continued development of Lower cost power conversion is expected from
larger and greater turbine capacities will necessitate deployment of higher voltage power electronics
higher capacity power electronics and enhanced (UpWind, 2011).

Box 3: Abundance of rare earths

Rare earth oxides (REOs) are used in many fact, prices for the neodymium oxide used to
modern devices such as catalytic converters, produce magnets dropped from USD 195/kg to
LCD screens, rechargeable batteries, and wind USD 80/‌kg during 2012 – a trend which does
turbine generators (about 20% of them, whether not suggest imminent scarcity. Extrapolations
geared or direct drive) that use permanent show that the wind power industry will
magnets. These generators are more compact, continue to represent less than 1% of the global
more efficient, and require less maintenance, demand. The real issue is that 95% of current
which is especially important off shore. REO production occurs in China, which restricts
exports but has only 30% of the world’s known
Fears have been expressed that scarcity of reserves. Mining projects are currently being
REOs may impede large-scale deployment of considered in more than 20 countries, and
wind power. However, known reserves are research is underway for alternative materials in
estimated to represent 1 000 years of supply many applications.
at current consumption levels (USGS, 2013). In

Wind technology development: actions and time frames 27

 Support structures could benefit from advances in transformation to optimise at the plant level, with
material research that might further reduce costs. individual turbines viewed as components that can
Materials with higher strength-to-mass ratios (e.g. be designed and operated for specific locations
carbon fibre and titanium) could enable larger area within the plant as a whole. Turbine-mounted
rotors, lighter generators and other drive-train Lidar (Light and radar) will be used to inform
components, thereby reducing tower head mass. turbines of changes in wind speed, direction and
New materials could also provide solutions for taller turbulence, making it possible to optimally position
towers and reduce the dependence of permanent turbines (and pitch blades) as changes occur in the
magnet generators on rare earths. As turbines approaching wind. Such capabilities offer the dual
approach 10 MW, direct-drive superconducting benefit of enhanced performance and reduced
generators may offer potential to lower mass and fatigue loads (UpWind, 2011).
size, while also providing the reliability benefits of
direct-drive platforms (Abrahamsen et al., 2010). All these improvements could drive about 20% cost
reduction of the lcoe of land-based wind power by
Wind turbine and wind farm (i.e. plant-wide) 2020 (Figure 15).
controls are an important area for cost reduction
in wind power. Industry is currently undergoing a

Figure 15: T
 arget for cost reductions of land-based wind power
in the United States
90
Levelised cost of energy (USD/MWh)

80
70
Blade Drivetrain
60 architecture, Tower Optimised
architecture, Optimised Testing,
controls, architecture, electrical Reduced
50 power resource standards,
aero- innovative infra- component
electronics, assessment, transparent
40 acoustics, material, structure defects and
control forecasting, information
aero- control failures,
systems optimised sharing
30 dynamics, systems condition
reduce micro-siting,
control reduce monitoring,
20 generator control
systems tower loads optimised
loads strategies
10 reduce blade O and M
loads strategies
0
tio ce

n
in

sts
r

t
r
ar E

E
to

we

lan

io
hm O

O
tra

isa an
n

co
Ro

at
nc LC

LC

LC
To

p
k

tim rm
ive

lid

g
of
be 009

10

20
tin
op erfo
Dr

va
ce
20

20
era
m
2

lan

ste

Op
nt
Ba

Pla

Sy

2009 LCOE benchmark Rotor Drivetrain Tower Balance of plant

System validation Plant performance optimisation Operating costs
Source: US DOE, 2013.

KEY POINT: incremental progress on many fronts can reduce land-based wind power costs.

Special considerations sound and aesthetics. Continued turbine scaling

will remain critical for offshore technology, as it
for offshore development has already resulted in lower balance of plant and
operations costs while simultaneously increasing
Offshore challenges: the design of offshore energy capture.
turbines for distant offshore installations will
continue to deviate from that of land-based
turbines, with less focus on issues such as flicker,

28 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

The interaction of the marine atmosphere and sea shore. Changes in design architecture and an ability
waves, which places different loads on various to withstand a wider array of design considerations
parts of the wind turbine and its foundation, including hurricanes, surface icing, and rolling and
requires continued attention. As long as the real pitching moments, are also likely to be needed.
requirements of wind technology in offshore
conditions remain insufficiently understood, In total, the US DOE expects a 40% reduction in
conservative design practices – adopted from other the cost of electricity generated by offshore wind
offshore industries – are likely to be used for turbine by 2030; the UK Crown Estate foresees similar
design (Wiser and Bolinger, 2012). 5� reductions for wind projects to be decided as early
as 2020 (2013b; Crown Estate, 2012b). The Crown
Offshore turbines could adopt a design other than Estate expects cost reductions from areas such
the mainstream three-blade concept, e.g. two as competition and installation, with the largest
blades rotating downwind of the tower. Improved savings (17%) from turbine changes (Figure 16 and
alternative-current (AC) power take-off systems Box 4). Of this, increase in rated power accounts for
or the introduction of direct-current (DC) power nine percentage points, as it reduces capital costs
systems are also promising technologies for internal by as much as 4% to 5%, operating costs by 10%
wind power plant grid offshore and connection to to 15%, and increases annual energy production by
up to 5%.
5. A ssessment of a number of shallow, transitional, and deep-water
offshore concepts is ongoing in the IEA Wind Task 30 Offshore
OC4 group.

Box 4: UK projections for offshore cost reductions

In the United Kingdom, the government-owned z lower costs of capital through de-risking
Crown Estate manages all offshore sites. The construction, and O&M.
Renewables Roadmap target is to cut the cost of
wind power to GBP 100/MWh (USD 150/MWh) As cost reductions require a larger market,
and install 18 GW capacity off the UK coasts by predictability and permanence of the market is
2020. needed to achieve maximum results. Wind farm
developers and suppliers must work together
All parts of the supply chain will need to to deliver continuous, end-to-end cost and risk
play their roles in building the industry and reduction. Managing a pipeline of projects,
bolstering innovation to drive down the cost of rather than working project by project, will
energy in line with the seven areas identified by help to drive down cost.
the roadmap:
The cost of capital is a key driver of LCOE for
z introduction of larger turbines with higher offshore wind plants. A drop of one percentage
reliability and energy capture and lower point in the weighted average cost of capital
operating costs; (WACC) reduces LCOE by about 6%. As the
z g
 reater competition in key supply markets offshore industry gains experience, key risks
(e.g. turbines, foundations and installation) (e.g. installation costs and timings, turbine
from within the United Kingdom, Europe and availability, and O&M costs) will be better
East Asia; managed, and the overall risk profile of
offshore projects will decline, thereby lowering
z g
 reater activity at the front end of projects, the returns sought by capital providers. Moving
including early involvement of suppliers and to products specifically designed for offshore
improved wind farm design; wind and industrialising the supply chain
z economies of scale and standardisation; provides multiple opportunities to reduce
capital and operating costs and increase power
z optimisation of installation methods; generation (Crown Estate, 2012b).
z m
 ass-produced, standardised deep water
foundations;

Wind technology development: actions and time frames 29

 Figure 16: C
 ost-reduction potential of offshore wind power plants,
United Kingdom
% reduction in levelised cost of energy FID 2011 to FID 2020

New turbines 17

Competition 6

Front end activity 5

Scale/Productivity 4

Installation 3

Support structures 3

Other 9

Total 39
Supply chain Technology

Source: Crown Estate, 2012b.

KEY POINT: progress all along the value chain can reduce the cost of offshore wind power.

The monopile’s relative simplicity and low labour The long-term cost implications of moving to
requirements make it an attractive platform, but floating offshore platforms are not yet clear; years
the combination of diverse seabed conditions, of rigorous design and testing will be needed
deeper water and larger turbines will push the before these technologies are commercially viable.
development for innovative alternatives such as New tools will be required to capture the design
jackets, tripods, gravity-based structures and criteria, which include the need to address weight
suction caissons (Figure 17). Composite towers and buoyancy requirements as well as the heaving
and foundations might offer greater corrosion and pitching moments created by wave action.
protection, while integrated concrete and steel Current floating concepts include the spar buoy, the
hybrid structures or entirely concrete structures tension leg platform and the buoyancy-stabilised
might also deliver benefits (Navigant, 2013b). semi-submersible platform (Figure 17). Vertical-
axis turbines, which disappeared from land, may
Clearly, a sizable offshore wind resource can be have a second chance at sea. Although they have a
developed with the fixed-bottom foundation higher material need to cover same swept areas and
technologies. Floating offshore foundations, have some dynamical structural issues, their lower
by contrast, offer the potential for less centre of gravity and fewer parts may be suitable
foundation material, simplified installation and in offshore wind. Vertimed, an EU-funded project
decommissioning, and additional wind resource at led by EDF-Energies Nouvelles with Nenuphar and
water depths exceeding 50 m to 60 m. Two recent Technip, aims to install thirteen vertical-axis wind
first demonstrations show good performance: turbines of 2 MW off Fos-sur-Mer in the French
Hywind, a 2.3 MW prototype operating off the Mediterranean waters by 2017.
Norwegian coast since 2009; and US/PT, a 2 MW
prototype off the Portuguese coast since 2011. Five
floating turbines in Portugal received EU funding to
be constructed by 2015.

30 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 17: Fixed-bottom foundation and floating offshore concepts

Floating wind
turbine concepts

Ballast stabilised “spar-buoy” Mooring line stabilised Buoyancy stabilised

Monopile Tri-pod Jacket Suction Gravity with catenary mooring drag tension leg platform “barge” with catenary
caisson base embedded anchors with suction pile anchors mooring lines

Source: Wiser et al., 2011.

KEY POINT: diverse concepts are being tested for offshore turbines.

O&M reliability and testing may need “push” from R&D funding organisations
and government; e.g. granting of subsidies could
Operational data management can facilitate faster be linked to required reporting of operational
and less costly O&M. High access costs to offshore experience.
turbines, often coupled with narrow weather
windows, make reliability a high priority. Minimal Diagnostic methods and preventative
on-site O&M can be achieved by equipping turbines maintenance offer the possibility to use corrective
with system redundancy while applying remote, maintenance with more regular and effective
advanced condition monitoring and self-diagnostic measures that can help to minimise unplanned
systems can reduce the duration and frequency of maintenance – a critical factor in driving down
onsite repairs. Offshore turbine designs that create operations expenditures. Technological advances
new access opportunities, potentially allowing in condition monitoring and more experience
repairs under more diverse weather and sea identifying failure indicators are expected to
conditions, are also important. increase efficiency in diagnosing and finding
appropriate mitigation in advance of failures.
Reliability and other operational improvements Advanced condition monitoring techniques might
would be accelerated through greater sharing include self-diagnosing systems, real-time load
of operating experience among industry actors, response, and the ability to manipulate and control
including experiences related to other marine individual turbines from an onshore monitoring
technologies such as wave and ocean current facility. Co-ordinating preventative maintenance
technologies. A database of operating experiences, efforts with improved wind and weather forecasting
currently being developed in Germany, has should allow operators to minimise turbine
stimulated wider, international research co- production losses (US DOE, 2012).
operation.. A way should be sought to make
operational data available through a shared
database, while taking into account commercial
sensitivities. Development of public databases

Wind technology development: actions and time frames 31

 Long-term options design process. Ultimately, efforts in both areas
contribute to more precise power production
To date, concepts to replace the current two-to- forecasts, whether five days or five minutes ahead.
three-bladed horizontal axis turbine have fallen
short in terms of cost-effectiveness and technical One risk factor that influences investments in wind
reliability. power relates to the anticipated output from a
given plant with turbines located over many square
Future research is likely to explore airborne options. kilometres. Better understanding of the numerous
Kites might transmit mechanical energy to land- uncertainties in current wind resource assessment
based generators, or fully fledged “flying machines” processes could result in lower financing costs. Both
such as tethered autogyres with rotors run by the models and measurements are needed to estimate
wind that provide both lift and power generation. the long-term average wind resource and the
Google recently bought Makani Power, a start-up turbine output: measurements offer precision and
that specialises in developing such devices. High- allow benchmarking models, which offer depth in
altitude winds are known to be very good and both time and space.
constant resources, routinely used by pilots to save
time and fuel on eastbound circumpolar flights. Resource assessment
Their potential has been said to be considerable
(Archer and Caldeira, 2009), but other scientists see and siting
a greater potential for environmental perturbation Regional wind atlas and databases, based on
than for electricity generation (see e.g. Miller, Gans models that try to capture the wind resource for a
and Kleidon, 2011). certain grid cell, offer a starting point. Such atlases
While technologies to get electricity from offshore are already used for potential analyses when setting
winds have been developing, use of winds in targets for deployment and regional planning.
maritime transportation disappeared after having They can also help wind developers to find the best
served mankind for centuries (except for leisure sites for projects, but more detailed modelling and
and some small fishing activities). An array of new measurements are needed for actual investments.
or modernised technologies (e.g. automated sails A shared database of information on the availability
and kites) can save fuel and emissions in maritime of wind resources in all countries with significant
transportation, either through direct mechanical deployment potential would greatly facilitate the
energy or through electricity generation or both development of new projects. Many countries
(see e.g. Fagiano et al., 2012). A full description of have already published wind atlas maps and
these still immature options is beyond the scope of detailed data, including measurements, would also
this roadmap. be valuable to share, but commercial sensitivity
In the future, innovative combinations of renewable concerns need to be addressed. Resource data are
energies and storage options could prove to be particularly sparse in developing countries and
cost-effective. There is strong interest in the energy for wind at heights above 80 m and off shore. The
island proposed in the Netherlands, which will database should include details of wind variability,
combine wind power, pump-storage and potentially average speeds, wind shear, turbulence and
tidal power (IEA, 2012b). Other options would tie extreme speeds. Ideally, it would also link to other
individual submarine pumped storage systems with databases of the solar resource, site topography, air
offshore turbines (see, e.g., Slocum et al., 2013). temperature, lightning strikes and seismic activity,
as well as off shore relevant external conditions. The
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA),
Wind characteristic in collaboration with the Clean Energy Ministerial
(CEM) Multilateral Wind and Solar Working Group,
assessment recently posted an online compilation of resource
data for wind.6
Accurate assessment of wind characteristics is
needed for choosing the right turbines for given As turbines become taller, it becomes more costly to
sites and selecting the specific locations for turbines acquire measurements using standard anemometry
within a wind farm (micro-siting). More precise masts – particularly off shore. Remote sensing
measurements and modelling of external conditions using sonic detection and ranging (Sodar) or light
(e.g. climate) can significantly enhance the turbine
6. www.irena.org/globalatlas.

32 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Resource assessment and siting Time frames
1. International wind atlases: develop publicly accessible databases of land-
Ongoing. Complete by 2015.
based and offshore wind resources and conditions.
2. Remote sensing techniques: high spatial resolution sensing technology
and techniques for use in high-fidelity experiments and siting wind power Ongoing. Complete by 2015.
plants.
3. Siting optimisation of turbines in a wind power plant: develop tools
based on state-of-the-art models and standardised micro-siting methods;
Ongoing. Complete by 2020.
refine and set standards for modelling techniques for wind resource and
micro-siting.
4. Measurement campaigns and model improvement for multi-scale
complex flow: improve understanding of complex terrain, offshore
conditions and icy climates; develop integrated models linking large-scale Complete by 2025.
climatology, meso-scale meteorological processes, micro-scale terrain and
wind farm array effects.
Assess conditions to improve turbine design Time frames
5. Measurement campaigns and model improvement for turbine rotor
inflow: experimentation to couple blade loading conditions to rotor Complete by 2020.
inflow, including computational fluid dynamics and wake effects.
6. Marine environment design conditions: design case development for
complex interactions among wind, waves, turbulence and current, Complete by 2025.
including handling of extreme conditions such as typhoons and icing.
Improve short-term forecasting accuracy Time frames
Complete by 2020. Weather
7. Wind forecasts: meteorological wind forecasts, with feed-back loop from
forecasting takes input data from
wind power plant online data to weather forecasting.
wind power plants.
8. Power production forecasts: for use in power system operation, with
Complete by 2020.
storm and icing forecasts.

and radar (Lidar) technologies, and computational validation of wake models. Reducing array losses and
fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to model air optimising plant layout by modelling the wake effect
flow, have recently been developed but still need can improve total wind power plant efficiency.
validation especially for complex terrains.7 Remote
sensing is also a future option in turbine nacelles to Efforts are underway to standardise methods
improve the control of turbines. for measurement campaigns and computer
modelling of the resource, on-site measurement
Siting optimisation of wind turbines in a plant and data gathering. Uncertainty remains highest for
could help address the wake effect (i.e. the new types of sites, such as off shore, complex and
influence of one turbine on the airflow incident forested terrains, and those with icy conditions.9
on another turbine), one of the more poorly Additional work is needed to develop measurement
understood phenomena in wind power. Wake and modelling techniques, and to standardise best
effect is particularly significant off shore, where practices. Improving the models further requires
wind power plants comprise hundreds of turbines, measurement campaigns in diverse terrains; to
and can reduce energy capture by as much as 10% achieve multi-scale models for complex flow, it will
while often increasing structural loading and O&M be necessary to combine regional and micro-
costs.8 Future research is critical to improve micro- siting models.
siting and increase the lifespan of the turbines, as is

7. The Wind IA Task 11 has recently published recommended

practices using SODAR and LIDAR to assess the wind resource.
9. The Wind IA Task 19 Wind Energy in Cold Climates has published
8. Work for a new IEC standard on wind plant siting IEC 61400-15 Recommended Practices and State-of-the-art reports including
has started in 2013. also measurements http://arcticwind.vtt.fi/.

Wind technology development: actions and time frames 33

 Assess conditions to improve value of wind-generated electricity in the power
turbine design market. Forecasts will enable the power system to
schedule and dispatch other power plants as cost
Measurement campaigns to improve models effectively as possible, and to ensure adequacy of
for turbine rotor inflow are needed to improve balancing reserves in real-time operation.
knowledge about turbine loading. Coupling blade
loading conditions to rotor inflow requires use of Improved accuracy of power production forecasts
CFD and modelling of wake effects. Improving on various time scales will support power system
accuracy of external meteorological conditions operation and enable wind power producers to act
more broadly is vital to better turbine design. More in electricity markets. Depending on market gate
precise estimates of extreme winds, for example, closure times and system operation practices, time
can reduce the uncertainty of loads for turbines. scales of one to two days ahead, four to eight hours
Moreover, understanding wind characteristics at ahead and one to two hours ahead can be used.10 In
specific locations within the wind farm can support the future, forecast accuracy will allow wind power
selection of turbines to the site and optimise turbine producers to operate also in the system (ancillary)
design for operations within that plant, using full services markets and offer balancing services.
plant control algorithms (instead of single machine
controls) to optimise the output of the whole plant.
Supply chains,
For offshore, work is needed on marine
environment design conditions to improve manufacturing
understanding of the complex interactions among
wind, waves, turbulence and current conditions
and installation
and apply such learning to better turbine design. Rapid growth rates of wind energy have given
Knowledge of extreme conditions, such as typhoons rise to occasional bottlenecks in supply of key
or icing, will be important for certain sites. components, including labour. Supply chain
complexity for onshore wind has increased with
Improve short-term the deployment of higher towers and larger blades,
forecasting accuracy and supply chain readiness is a particular issue for
offshore wind. Strong supply chains will provide
Improving the accuracy of short-term wind stability and predictability for investors.
forecast is needed for the operation of wind
power plants, especially for electricity markets
and the power system. Better predictability of 10. In the United States, several large power markets are very
wind resources will help producers meet delivery effectively integrating wind into real-time markets using
commitments, thereby increasing the economic forecasts that are within ten minutes ahead, taking advantage
of much lower wind forecast errors.

Manufacturing and installation Time frames

1. A
 dvanced manufacturing methods: accelerate automated,
Ongoing. Continue over 2013-50 period.
localised, large-scale manufacturing for economies of scale, with
an increased number of recyclable components.
2. O
 ffshore installation and logistics: make available enough
Sufficient capacity by 2015.
purpose-designed vessels; improve installation strategies; make
available suitably equipped large harbour space.
3. D
 evelop workforce: develop curricula for wind workforce in
Ongoing. Continue over 2013-50 period.
industry and academia.

Advanced manufacturing methods offer pathways installation sites can reduce transport costs and
to increase manufacturing efficiency. Strategies import taxes, and provide more efficient means of
such as improvements in serial production and turbine delivery.
automation, and in locating factories nearer to

34 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Economies of scale and cost reductions from actual To lower costs, installation strategies need to reduce
project deployment are anticipated when projects the amount of work done at sea or with large
can be delivered at a quicker pace. At present, cranes. To reduce O&M costs, sufficiently robust
severe supply chain pressures are seen in the access systems for staff could widen the current
offshore market segment. Governments should weather windows.
consider support for testing, manufacturing and
assembly processes located in specially designed A large, skilled workforce is needed to develop
harbours in the vicinity of resource-rich areas (as in new designs, establish new manufacturing plants
the Bremerhaven area development in Germany). in new locations, develop installation technologies,
Cross-country co-operation on project installation and to build, operate and maintain wind power
and grid development may also trigger more R&D plants. The EU Wind Technology Platform estimates
co-operation in this area. a gap of 18 000 qualified staff entering the
European wind energy workforce in 2030, if the
Rising steel prices affect the entire supply rate of graduation from industry-relevant courses
chain; bottlenecks for cabling have contributed is not increased (TPWind, 2013). The nature of this
significantly to delays for offshore wind projects shortage changes over time to become dominated
in Germany. by a lack of qualified O&M personnel.

Depending on weather and local conditions, Governments and state/province authorities could
installation and logistics of offshore turbines help establish the necessary education and training
can be a costly and iterative process, constrained activities. For example, the American Recovery and
to defined periods by nature protection (e.g. Reinvestment Act (ARRA) designated USD 500 million
breeding animals in spring and summer) and strict for projects that prepare workers for careers in
weather windows. Staging, assembly, transport energy efficiency and renewable energy (US DOL,
and installation account for a substantial fraction of 2010). In Europe, the European Academy of Wind
offshore wind costs. Installation vessels (e.g. jack-up Energy hub links several training programmes
barges and lifting equipment) are costly and more provided by centres of excellence at specific
will be needed to meet demand. Co-operative universities. In the United Kingdom, the Renewables
measures such as sharing vessels between projects Training Network facilitates the transition of
could help. Significant upgrades are needed in professionals from other sectors into the offshore
ports that were not designed for the offshore wind industry. A Talent Bank project, hosted by EU
wind industry. Skills, is designed to make it easier for businesses to
access and organise apprenticeship schemes.

Wind technology development: actions and time frames 35

 System integration: actions and time frames
Effective mechanisms for integrating wind power needed to promote transmission grid development
into transmission grids are a key challenge for and to improve the operation of power systems.
achieving this roadmap’s goals. Specific actions are

Transmission planning and development

Improve transmission development Time frames
1. D
 evelop long-term interconnection transmission infrastructure plans in Complete plans by 2015 and
concert with power plant deployment plans; advanced planning tools. tools by 2020.
2. E stablish workable mechanisms for transmission cost recovery and allocation;
provide incentives for accelerated permitting and construction of transmission Complete by 2015-20.
capacity.
3. Identify agencies to lead large-scale, multi-jurisdictional transmission projects
or a “one-stop shop” approach to regulatory approval of major transmission Complete by 2015-20.
infrastructure projects.
4. D
 evelop and implement plans for regional-scale transmission overlays to link Complete plans by 2015.
regional power markets. Achieve deployment by 2030.
5. D
 evelop and implement plans for offshore grids, linking transmission lines, Complete plans by 2015
offshore wind resources and power market zones; develop tools to co-optimise and tools by 2020. Achieve
offshore grid and wind turbine design (incl. power-to-swept area ratios). deployment by 2030.

Improve transmission Transmission System Operators for Electricity

development (ENTSO-E) has identified about 100 bottlenecks in
the European transmission grid (Figure 18). Although
Long-term, interconnection transmission many are identified as security of supply or market
infrastructure plans require mechanisms to integration issues, about 80% have some link to the
optimise existing and future grids. Much of the deployment of renewables (ENTSO-E, 2012).
best wind resource lies some distance from energy
demand centres: delivery of wind-generated Emerging underground cable technology may help
electricity to end-users requires use of existing overcome local public opposition and ecological
transmission and distribution (T&D) systems (grids). concerns – though at a cost. Strong support
In some cases, the best wind speeds may be just off for R&D initiatives towards new transmission
shore and relatively close to major (coastal) demand technology will be a key enabler. Developing
centres – but transmission entails higher costs per transmission planning, grid modelling and power
kilometre of connecting lines. Even wind resources market tools are needed to take into account
close to existing grids create challenges: much of variability and lower utilisation time of resources like
the transmission infrastructure is at least 40 years wind power. Operational and planning time scales
old and needs upgrades or reinforcement. will both be incorporated in the planning task in
future where renewables are increasingly at the core
In this regard, wind is one among other drivers of long-term planning strategies.
for grid strengthening, such as enhancing the
integration of electricity markets and increasing Full utilisation of existing grids is also important
security of supply. The European Network of to avoid unnecessary curtailments of wind power.
Dynamic line ratings is one promising technology
to help increase transmission capacity over existing
lines, but requires more R&D on how it can be
applied more widely.

36 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 18: Bottlenecks in the European electricity network

Market integration: between price zones

Market integration: within price zone
Generation integration
Security of supply

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Source: ENTSO-E, 2012.

KEY POINT: stronger grids would help integrate markets, secure supply and deploy renewables.

System integration: actions and time frame 37

 Box 5: Co-ordinated transmission planning in Europe

The European regulation EC 714/2009 The TYNPD 2012 identifies more than 100
led to the founding of two bodies, the projects adding up to 52 300 km of new
European Network of Transmission System transmission lines – an annual grid length
Operators (ENTSO-E), and the Agency for development of 1.3% for investment costs of
the Co-operation of Energy Regulators EUR 104 billion (USD 135 billion) (ENTSO-E,
(ACER). ENTSO-E co-ordinates the 41 national 2012). The drivers for new transmission
transmission systems operators (TSOs) from 34 include renewable energy sources (RES)
countries. Every two years, it publishes a non- integration (80%), market integration (47%)
binding Ten-Year Network Development Plan and security of supply (33%). In Europe,
(TYNDP), partly with the aim of increasing these project costs are not allocated to
transparency of the European transmission energy producers. As transmission is seen
network. as a "common good", costs are allocated to
consumers, with national regulators being
The TYNDP 2012 comprises eight documents: responsible for authorising the projects.
six regional reports, one scenario outlook
and system adequacy report, and the pan-
European document, which extracts the most
important pan-European projects from the
regional reports.

Governments and energy regulators should Cost allocation is often the most important policy
accelerate the development of integrated, consideration for allowing new transmission to be
economically optimal plans for new transmission; built. In general, the approach is that costs should
doing so across the whole of an interconnected be shared among all beneficiaries, capturing the
power system is a critical enabler. broadly distributed benefits of reduced electricity
costs, improved security of supply and stronger
China is further developing its West-East electricity competition in the electricity market. In Europe
transfer project with the building of three electricity and in some parts of the United States (including
transmission corridors that connect demand centres Texas), the costs are broadly allocated instead of any
on the coast with newly built generation capacity single category of stakeholders – e.g. wind power
in the north, central and south regions (Figure 19). developers – paying them entirely (ENTSO-E, 2012).
Each corridor of HVDC lines is expected to exceed
40 GW in capacity by 2020, and will transport Texas offers an example of successfully combining
electricity from coal, hydro, land-based wind and broad transmission cost allocation policies with pro-
solar power to large onshore load centres. Wind active transmission planning. The Electric Reliability
power curtailment for lack of transmission capacity Council of Texas (ERCOT) provided development
has been a serious impediment to wind power scenarios for the Public Utility Commission (PUC)
deployment in China. of Texas, and PUC confirmed (July 2008) the
development of transmission to deliver 18.5 GW
Transmission cost recovery and allocation of wind power to demand centres from five
mechanisms are needed to expand capacity. Lack of competitive renewable energy zones located in
transmission capacity is a major obstacle in several west Texas, using the state’s long-standing policy of
EU countries (Ireland, the United Kingdom and broadly allocating all transmission costs to load. The
Germany), the United States and China. This reflects new lines, expected to be in service by end 2013,
that it often takes more time to permit and build will reduce the volume of curtailments currently
transmission lines than to permit and build wind needed for the 10 GW wind installed and increase
power plants. In fact, lack of transmission needed opportunities to build 8 GW more. The project is
to connect new wind power plants is a potential expected to cost USD 6.9 billion (PUC Texas, 2013).
barrier delaying wind energy deployment.

38 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Figure 19: China’s West-East electricity transfer project

Tibet

Note: this is an indicative map figuring the concept of the West-East electricity transfers. The exact localisation of corridors is still under
discussion and subject to possible changes.

Source: D. Tyler Gibson and James Conkling/China Environment Forum at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

KEY POINT: the vast majority of power sources in China – including wind resource –
are far from demand centres.

Incentives may be needed to encourage TSOs to The siting and permitting of transmission expansion
build transmission; such measures must take into often involves multiple jurisdictions (local,
account the capital constraints of most TSOs and state, federal), each with different regulations
the return expectations of financial investors. and methods of assessing costs, benefits and
Investors, including infrastructure funds, could environmental impacts. A stalemate often arises in
then become more involved in the equity funding that no-one wants to be the first to invest: both the
of transmission projects, as this asset class is wind plant developer and transmission developer
considered attractive at an acceptable return. want to be certain the other party will commit in
Offering to TSOs a premium on normal WACC for order to avoid the risk of being left with a stranded
“new built” is one way to create such incentives. asset (i.e. unusable and of no monetary value).
Where generation and transmission assets are
Effective planning, however, should seek to minimise separated by regulation, integrated planning and
total system costs, rather than focusing solely on investment are even more critical.
maximising wind power dispatch. As penetration
increases, it may be necessary to adjust capacities of Policy makers may consider the merits of
wind turbines, grids and entire systems. mandating a single agency to lead the planning
and permitting process when several jurisdictions

System integration: actions and time frame 39

 are involved, or of implementing a “one-stop Plan and deploy regional super
shop” approach to regulatory approval of major grids and offshore grids
transmission infrastructure projects. Germany
recently shifted responsibilities between counties High-voltage direct-current (HVDC) lines
and federal authorities for lines crossing county reduces energy losses during transmission, and
borders: the National Grid Expansion Acceleration is increasingly used worldwide for bulk power
Act (NABEG) of 2011 aimed to simplify and transmission over long distances, for interconnecting
accelerate permitting procedures of national power systems and for systems that require long
and cross-border lines while ensuring a high lengths of cable. From a cost perspective, the
level of public participation. In 2013, a second break-even point between high-voltage alternative-
law containing a “Federal Requirement Plan for current (HVAC) and HVDC, which is several
Transmission Networks”, identified 36 power line hundred kilometres on land, is less than 100 km off
projects as “necessary and urgent” and gave sole shore. Continued evolution of HVDC conversion
authority for any related dispute to the Federal technology, improvements in cable-laying vessels,
Administrative Court in Leipzig. increased marine cable-laying capacity and
innovative trenching equipment will help reduce
In the United States, new regional and interregional costs (Wiser and Bolinger, 2012). One recent HVDC
transmission planning and cost allocation policies technology, voltage source converter (VSC), is
are required under the Federal Energy Regulatory usually preferred over the more mature current
Commission (FERC) Order 1000, which also source converter (CSV) for offshore connections.
mandates that transmission planning processes
take into account the states’ RPS. Ongoing state, Distance is a key factor in developing and
regional and federal co-operation is needed to implementing plans for offshore grids. The North
ensure that cost allocation policies will support the Sea Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative (NSCOGI)
necessary transmission upgrades. is a co-operative framework among ten countries,

Figure 20: From radial to fully meshed options for offshore grid development

Source: NSCOGI, 2012.

KEY POINT: offshore, meshed solutions might be preferable but require more planning and higher certainty.

40 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

the European Commission, ACER, ENTSO-E and power systems must have sufficient firm capacity
national regulatory authorities. It has published a to respond to load, with some safety margin (i.e.
study analysing the possible effects of developing operational reserves) to respond to unforeseen
a meshed grid versus a radial approach by 2030 events and forecasting errors. Experiences in
(Figure 20), which shows some advantages of the Western Europe and the United States suggest
meshed option. This approach would, however, that at low-wind energy shares (5% to 10%), the
require a higher level of certainty on offshore wind increase in variability “seen” by the system will be
deployment – of 42 GW by 2020 and 52 GW by small and existing reserve margins are sufficient.
2030 (NSCOGI, 2012). As wind penetrations rise, greater amounts of
operational reserves will be needed to ensure that
In the United Kingdom, the total capacity of combined (forecast/actual) production from wind
offshore wind power plants having connection and dispatchable power plants can continue to be
agreements with National Grid is 35.2 GW. A key reliably balanced against (forecast/actual) demand.
industry issue during 2011/12 was how to move
toward a more co-ordinated onshore/offshore The main challenge for wind integration is as
grid, which could reduce costs and speed up follows: once the targeted amount of wind energy
the connection process. The feasibility of a co- has been captured and converted into electricity,
ordinated grid network has been explored, showing and sufficient transmission capacity has been
that a meshed grid network could save between secured to deliver it to market, the electricity
GBP 0.5 and GBP 3.5 billion (USD 0.77 billion available must be cost-effectively integrated into
to USD 5.4 billion) compared to a purely radial the power system while ensuring the security of
approach. Continued work will be needed to resolve supply. Existing T&D networks and the physical
issues arising from a co-ordinated grid approach, power markets they support were designed around
including unlocking barriers to enable developers to dispatchable, centralised power generation that can
connect to grids off shore (Crown Estate, 2012a). typically be turned off and on according to demand.
In contrast, the generation of electricity from wind
energy depends on a variable resource that cannot
Reliable system operation with be scheduled, as is possible with conventional plant.

large shares of wind energy

Variability and uncertainty are not new
characteristics of power systems. As demand
for power varies by hours, days, and seasons, all

Enable wind integration Time frames

1. E nable larger balancing areas and use of wind forecast and online
data in control rooms of system operators.
Ongoing. Complete by 2015-20.
2. Assess grid codes and ensure that independent power producers can
access grids.
Develop electricity markets Time frames
3. A ccelerate development of larger-scale, faster and deeper trading of
electricity through evolved power markets and advanced smart grid
technology. Ongoing. Market development by 2020
4. Enable wind power plants taking part in electricity markets, also for and wind power in ancillary services
system services. market by 2025.
5. Incentivise timely development and use of flexible reserves, innova-
tive demand-side response and storage.
Increase power system flexibility Time frames
6. D evelop methods to assess the need for additional power system
flexibility to enable variable renewable energy deployment.
7. Carry out system studies to examine the challenges, opportunities, Ongoing. Complete by 2020.
costs and benefits of high shares of wind power integration.
8. Prepare strategies for managing wind curtailments.

System integration: actions and time frame 41

 Enable wind integration reliability. The development of fault-ride-through
capabilities of wind power plants has become an
The first step in wind integration is enabling industry standard.
forecast. Acquiring online data to control rooms
means accessing also distribution-system connected Grid code harmonisation, if carefully defined and
plant data. In Spain and Portugal, this is organised coherent with each technology capability, could
through centres for compiling distributed data, lead to more cost-effective turbines. Regulators
which also manage any control orders from the should ensure that grid codes are equitable and
TSOs. Forecasting on a one-to-two day horizon is provide a level playing field for all entrants while
a primary tool in managing uncertainty. In system avoiding excessively stringent requirements and
operation, it is also important to be ready for uselessly expensive features. In Europe, network
extreme events (storms and other events with large codes are being elaborated by ENTSO-E according
ramps). In the United States, the FERC expects that to guidelines provided by ACER. Once approved
forecasting and intra-hour scheduling be part of any by the Parliament and the Council, these codes will
proposal for charging integration costs. In addition, be legally binding. The network code in Europe
generators providing variable energy resources is based on “envelopes of requirements” that
must provide meteorological and forced-outage leave national TSOs free to choose an appropriate
data, which the transmission provider can use for requirement inside these values.
forecasting their output
Develop electricity markets
Enabling larger balancing areas and trade with
neighbouring areas are important measures to Larger-scale, faster and deeper trading of
support higher shares of wind power. Co-ordination electricity requires evolved markets and smart
between balancing areas allows for more spatial grid technologies. Improved operational practices,
diversity, thereby reducing the impact of variable such as electricity trading rules, can be a powerful
renewable energy, and also provides synergies enabler of flexibility. Regulators tasked with market
between diverse flexible supply-side and demand- design may wish to consider characteristics, such as:
side resources. Experience from Germany and allowing shorter time windows; adjusting balance
the Nordic countries reveals the value of larger of portfolios with enhanced trading options;
balancing areas in decreasing reserve needs for and extending balancing and provision of other
individual system operators. The Nordic power system services into demand response, storage and
market, which covers the whole Scandinavia, has wind generation. Increasing intraday trading and
facilitated the trade of Danish wind for Norwegian including cross-border trading will facilitate wind
hydropower, helping wind energy to reach 30% of deployment. Grid operators should be ensured
the Danish market with moderate balancing costs the ability to assess grid operation challenges and
from the day-ahead market. uncertainty.

Grid codes represent the requirements of system Dispatching energy at short intervals is also useful
operators on power producers, and typically for reducing wind integration costs and enabling
include specifications such as voltage and more efficient operation of the power system. This
frequency. Most modern wind turbines have the allows dispatch schedules to be updated within the
required capabilities to comply with these codes, operating hour in response to demand and supply
but further co-operative efforts to standardise the deviations, thus accommodating total system
content, definitions, terminology and compliance- variability at far lower costs than when using only
test methods of grid connection requirements can expensive reserve generation to accommodate
support smoother grid operation. intra-hour variability.

In the early days of wind power deployment, Integrating wind more tightly in the real-time
turbines were mostly connected to distribution dispatch process has proven a very effective strategy
grids – and simply disconnected in case of grid for independent system operators (ISOs) such as the
disturbances to simplify the corrective measures Midcontinent ISO (in the Midwest United States)
of grid operators. At larger deployment, (e.g. and the ERCOT. These ISOs are dispatching wind
in Germany and Spain) it became evident that every five minutes, just as they do with coal, natural
disconnecting turbines that represent several gas and other conventional generators. Because the
gigawatts of power can undermine system ISOs tell the wind producers how much wind power

42 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

they expect to receive every five minutes, wind Increase power system flexibility
plants fit into markets and operations just like any
other generating capacity. Using a very short-term Timely deployment and use of flexible reserves
forecast (updated within ten minutes of real time) is vital at higher penetration levels of wind power.
to dispatch the wind plants makes this work: even Markets need to be designed such that price signals
a simple persistence forecast reduces the forecast encourage investment in and subsequent operation
error towards zero as real time approaches. of all flexible resources in the region. Timely
investment in flexibility should be incentivised,
With wind power already participating in electricity recognising the tendency for large shares of
markets, some experience with managing renewable energy to depress spot electricity market
imbalances has been gained. In Nordic countries, prices. Conventional generation, from thermal
for example, wind power producers have been plants (to different degrees) to hydropower,
exposed to imbalance costs that have been quite already provide some flexibility. Enhancing system
moderate, USD 3/MWh to USD 4/MWh, even if they flexibility from thermal plants relates to faster starts
do not reflect the real costs that wind power causes and greater ramp rates and ramp ranges; reduced
for system balancing at all hours. minimum generation; balancing and response
capability; better part-load efficiency; and low
System support services from wind power plants emissions to meet environmental requirements
are still being developed to provide both voltage during cycling. Deeper trade with adjacent markets
and frequency control to system operators when and connecting diverse energy sectors (e.g. heat,
needed. Technical requirements on wind turbines transport and gas) can further increase flexibility
(e.g. remote control) to participate in power markets available for balancing. Using dynamic marginal
are increasing in importance. Market rules will need costs to develop such incentives would be essential
to develop to take advantage of these services in to efficiently integrate wind power.
future, in times when more cost effective services
are not available from other power plants. Other options for flexibility include the use of
deferrable and responsive demand (i.e demand-
Getting sufficient remuneration from market side management) through smart meters, and
prices at high wind (and solar) penetration levels investment in energy storage as well as electric
is a future challenge for wind power in electricity and hybrid vehicles. Smart grids that enable both
markets. Energy-only markets will react to high demand and supply agents to interact in real time
winds (or strong sunshine) with very low electricity create the potential for an exponential increase in
spot prices, making the transition from subsidised the number of market participants, which implies
variable renewables to market exposure a complex both benefits and challenges.
task – even when wind (or solar) power offer
competitive electricity costs.

Box 6: Geographic “smoothing” of variable output

As distances between wind power plants the extent to which wind plants can displace
increase, their collective output is generally less conventional energy production. Larger,
correlated. An uncongested grid connected to deeper and more liquid electricity markets can
many dispersed plants will therefore “see” a be achieved by merging balancing areas and
smoother aggregated wind output profile than increasing trade among systems. Europe has
if all the wind plants were in the same place. a political target to merge regional balancing
The capacity of interconnected markets to markets by the end of 2014.
share dispatchable reserve capacity increases

System integration: actions and time frame 43

 Carrying out system-wide studies to identify Curtailments of wind power are an emerging
challenges that system operators need to consider concern. In northern Germany and Texas, some
as wind power becomes an integral part of power curtailments were caused by delayed transmission
system evolution, rather than being developed in reinforcement; in Spain, the issue was a lack of
isolation. System operators should receive early fault-ride-through capabilities at wind power plants.
notice of targeted wind energy shares in order to These situations were largely temporary and have
plan accordingly, and should collaborate with wind been reduced through updates to transmission
power developers and manufacturers regarding systems and requirements. China’s more serious
the capabilities that wind power plants can offer curtailment problems, however, reflect inflexibility
to system support as well as wind forecasting in the operation of the power system. Integration
and on-line data for operator control rooms. studies show that curtailments will become a more
TSOs and regulators should co-ordinate actions serious challenge at wind power penetration levels
to avoid situations of sudden oversupply of new of about 30%. Addressing this issue, which may
wind capacity that the TSO would be unable to require compensation for curtailments, is vital
absorb. Detailed system-wide studies, assessing to enabling investors to consider future energy
the existing flexibility and options to increase it, are production options.
important to advancing towards high renewable
energy shares. Good examples include the All Island Further information on integration of variable
Grid Study in Ireland (and its continuation studies) renewables will be provided in a forthcoming
and the east and west interconnect studies carried IEA publication on grid integration of variable
out in the United States (DCEN, 2008; Ecofys and renewables (forthcoming1).
DIgSILENT, 2010; Enernex, 2011; GE Energy, 2010).11

At higher penetration levels of wind power it

is foreseeable that conventional, synchronous
generation may sometimes provide less than 50%
of the load, which raises questions about how
the system might behave and associated stability
concerns for which TSO have little or no experience.
Research is needed to answer questions about
model accuracy and the extent to which HVDC
transmission reinforcement can be used to stabilise
AC transmission lines.

11. W ind IA Task 25 is preparing Recommended Practices

for Wind Integration studies, to be published in 2013
(www.ieawind.org).

44 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Policy, finance, public acceptance and
international collaboration: actions and time frames
Strong market pull is needed to complement the policy into an overall energy strategy. Without
technology push that will support higher shares government incentives or equivalent support, in
of wind in electricity markets. Action in this area most cases the rates of return would be too low and
is more associated with policy, finance, public markets would stagnate.
acceptance and international collaboration that
fosters more rapid deployment of wind power. To finance the higher amounts of investments
Sharing the lessons learned from past activities needed to expand wind penetration, it is essential
and experience in different countries can enhance to move from limited resources for risk financing
awareness, acceptance and deployment. towards more abundant resources for mainstream
activities and more conservative financing (such
as pension funds). These investors seek adequate
Incentivising investment risk-adjusted returns and stable inflation-adjusted
income streams. A predictable policy environment
A principal role of government is to attract is a prerequisite to minimise the perceived risk;
investment in clean energy technologies by by contrast, regulatory uncertainty, including
facilitating a predictable and transparent policy retroactive changes, can drive up the cost of finance
framework, including integrating renewable energy to prohibitive levels.

Attract investment to wind power Time frames

1. S
 et short- and long-term deployment targets for wind power Complete by 2015.
(where not already in place).
2. Implement incentives and support mechanisms that provide
sufficient confidence to investors; create a stable, predictable Complete by 2015.
financing environment to lower costs for financing.
3. Internalise the external costs of electricity production into market
Complete by 2020.
prices.
4. E ncourage national and multilateral development banks (MDBs)
Continue over 2013-50 period.
to target clean energy deployment.
5. F urther develop mechanisms to attract investment in wind
Continue over 2013-50 period.
deployment (such as the Clean Development Mechanism [CDM]).

Binding deployment targets with near-term would help countries to identify priorities based
milestones provide a clear pathway for technology on the energy and industrial policy they choose.
development and confirm government support, A detailed process for developing national wind
both of which further encourage private sector roadmaps will soon be published as a How2Guide
investment. For instance, the European Union (IEA, forthcoming2)
targets 20% of all energy to be from renewables by
2020 (about one-third of all electricity) with binding Establishing incentives and support mechanisms
targets for member states, further detailed in their for wind deployment can build investor confidence.
national renewable energy action plans (EEA, 2011). At present, government support and incentives for
Importantly for the longer term, consultations are renewable energy producers vary from country to
ongoing about possible targets post-2020. country. Common mechanisms include fixed FiTs,
feed-in premium (FiPs), production tax credits,
National roadmaps could be created to support RPS or quotas (with or without tradable green
wind development and implementation at the certificates), capital grants and loan guarantees.
country level. The first of these was the China Wind Most mechanisms seek to establish a return per
Energy Development Roadmap 2050 published by megawatt hour of electricity that is competitive with
the Energy Research Institute of China’s National other energy sources and sufficient to attract private
Development and Reform Commission together investment; loan guaranties in the United States
with the IEA (IEA and ERI, 2011). National roadmaps focus on reducing risks for investors. Importantly,

Policy, finance, public acceptance and international collaboration: actions and time frame 45
 Box 7: Attracting private finance

Raising sufficient finance for investments in Partnerships enhance financing, as different

low-carbon energy technologies depends players have different risk appetites and
on governments setting a domestic policy financing possibilities. Public-private
framework that is responsive to evaluation of risk partnerships (PPPs) can reduce the risk to
and return profiles on which the private sector private investors, and should be used to
makes investment decisions. Investor confidence maximise leverage. PPPs may be effective, for
can be strengthened in several ways. example, to secure the construction of new
grid infrastructure, wherein the grid company
In the case of wind development, potential provides the investment capital against a
investors need a solid understanding of the governmental assurance that the lines will
full range of both perceived and real risks, be used, thereby guaranteeing a return on
which can include wind resource uncertainty, the investment.
technology risk (e.g. unforeseen O&M costs
and down-time), predictability and longevity of
government incentives, instability in the carbon
price, and uncertainty regarding the reliability
and credit-worthiness of other parties.

government policies must have flexibility to adjust mechanisms should aim to reduce project risks
the subsidy level as the cost of wind energy gets and stimulate deployment, while encouraging the
closer to conventional technologies. However, such technology to reduce costs. A policy must also be
adjustments must apply only to new plants, as any easy to implement and enforce (IEA, 2011).
retroactive changes to remuneration of existing
plants would undermine investor confidence. Public financing by government or quasi-
government agencies has been critical to
Internalising the external costs of electricity development of larger wind power projects. Most
production is viewed as one way to level the offshore projects in Europe have received support
playing field across primary energy sources. from the European Investment bank (EIB), Eksport
Subsidies might serve to reflect the value of clean Kredit Fonden (EKF) the Danish export credit
energy production – including the avoided costs agency, Euler Hermes (EH) the German export
of reduced GHG emissions and pollutants, the credit agency, or a combination of them. Financing
positive impact on health, less energy dependence, offshore wind projects in Germany has been
etc. – that is not yet effectively internalised in facilitated by the availability of EUR 5 billion from
electricity prices. A more straightforward method the German Development Bank (Kreditanstalt für
of internalising the cost of GHG emissions in the Aufwiederbau). The Meerwind project in Germany
price of electricity – which may have more weight included financing from US-based private equity
in investment decisions – would be to put a price firm, Blackstone. In 2011, DONG Energy sold 50%
on emissions through carbon taxes or emissions of the Anholt project to two Danish pension funds,
trading systems. A carefully designed scheme is a new source of financing in the sector. Parties are
paramount to ensure meaningful and stable prices. exploring alternative forms of financing such as
Even with a carbon price, emerging renewable project bonds. The European experience shows that
energy technologies with good prospects for cost many different regulatory regimes work as long as
cuts could be given additional incentives to unlock the overall price level is compatible with the current
their long-term potential (Philibert, 2011). installation costs of offshore wind and the regulatory
framework is sufficiently stable to cover the relatively
The critical barriers that can deter or slow down long development and construction process.
deployment tend to change as the market for
a technology develops. Policy makers need to
take a dynamic approach, adjusting priorities
as deployment expands. Above all, support

46 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

MDBs are an important source of financing for China and India dominate among wind CDM
joint development efforts. Financing facilities can projects. China has 1 511 projects totalling almost
be designed on a case-by-case basis to support 84 GW, and India 810 projects totalling about
differing needs. The Turkish Clean Technology 14 GW. Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa
Fund (CTF) is a business plan established among and Chile follow. The rapid increase in wind
the Turkish government, the World Bank, the deployment in China and India has coincided
International Finance Corporation and the European with the development of the CDM incentive
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, worth mechanism for clean energy projects. This growth
approximately USD 1.9 billion. has contributed to the development of domestic
wind manufacturing bases, particularly in China.
Alongside policy support, efforts should be made However, current uncertainty on the future of the
to identify and address barriers to deployment. For climate negotiations has put into question the
example, off-taker risk can be a serious impediment future of CDM.
to investment. A project’s risk profile is considerably
higher prior to the signature of a power-purchase
agreement and reduces substantially once an
off-taker has been securely identified to buy the
Public engagement
electricity to be produced. In India, China and and the environment
elsewhere, power-purchase agreements are
habitually signed at project completion – long after Prominent environmental groups are squarely
financing has been secured. This practice makes it behind the large-scale deployment of wind power,
more difficult to attract investors early, when the bulk while international, national and regional policies
of financing is needed. It should be noted that the targeting GHG emission reductions have wide
financial reliability of potential off-takers may be in public support. Yet local groups often oppose
question. In such a case, disincentives to investment individual projects or the installation of transmission
could be reduced by a regulated requirement for lines, often because of visual impacts, effects on
off-takers to contract for electricity when projects are property values, health concerns, or impacts on
at the financing stage, or by developing a mechanism avian, bat and offshore ecology. In some European
to shield investors from subsequent failure to secure cases, local opposition has delayed important
a power-purchase agreement. transmission interconnector projects by as much
as 15 years. Even as knowledge is gained regarding
Increased effort should be made to develop how wind power affects the natural environment,
mechanisms to attract investment. The CDM uncertainty remains over impacts on local species.
within the United Nations Framework Convention If studies from other regions are difficult to find,
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is pursuing this lack of information often leads decision makers
global agreements to cap GHG emissions, has to reject a wind proposal or take no action at all,
shown some success in building clean energy forcing developers to less-desirable sites that result
capacity in developing economies. Early in 2013, in higher energy costs.
there were 2 616 wind projects in the CDM pipeline,
29% of the total amount of projects. Wind ranks
first with respect to the number of projects,
followed by hydro (26%). Wind power projects are
expected to yield 19% of total certified emissions
reductions (CERs) issued per year.

Mitigate impacts and increase public engagement Time frames

1. Improve techniques to assess, minimise and mitigate social and
Complete by 2020.
environmental impacts and risks.
2. Increase public involvement and understanding, and community
engagement, on the basis of best practices.
3. P
 romote wind energy as part of a portfolio of abatement
Continue over 2013-50 period.
technologies for GHG emissions and pollution.

Policy, finance, public acceptance and international collaboration: actions and time frame 47
 Rigorous effort is needed to assess, minimise Swedish wind energy industry introduced its first
and mitigate the social and environmental code of conduct for the sector in July 2012 (Svensk
concerns associated with wind power – particularly Vindenergi, 2012). The Wind IA has published
in response to the sometimes polarised public best practice recommendations (Wind IA Task 28,
debate. Local EIAs can identify and allay real public 2013), outlining methods to identify and minimise
concerns, as well as avoid subsequent, unforeseen negative local impacts, reduce project uncertainty
project delays. Government agencies and the wind and risk due to local attitudes, accelerate project
power community should work together to build development, and establish strategies and
improved understanding of local impacts, and to communication activities to express the full value of
ensure that the planning of wind power and related wind power. Support can be built via the provision
transmission infrastructure is based on transparent, of reliable and balanced information, and with
fair and equal criteria. community participation at the earliest stages of a
project, including open public hearings. In cases
To avoid duplications of environmental impact where negative environmental effects from wind are
analyses for every wind power project, where likely, means to minimise and mitigate these effects
feasible, environmental/radar studies that benefit need to be identified and developed.
a large number of projects could be financed
with public or shared funding. Overall, a better It is also important that the general public and
understanding of impacts and mitigation solutions local populations in the vicinity of a proposed
will increase the certainty of development outcomes development understand the full value of wind
and ultimately lead to more deployment. energy. The variability of wind power is taken
by some as a measure of unreliability while its
Increase public involvement contributions to climate change mitigation and
energy security are often underestimated. Effective
and understanding of the full
public information campaigns that highlight
value of wind quantifiable benefits of wind power can address
these concerns.
Public involvement is essential to enable efficient
project development. As a tool to help the industry
address stakeholder questions on wind energy, the

Planning and permitting

Improve planning and permitting Time frames

1. Include wind power in long-term regional planning, taking into
account other likely power plant developments and transmission Complete by 2020.
deployment.
2. Harmonise, accelerate and streamline permitting practices. Complete by 2015.

The need to include wind power in the long- developers by avoiding likely obstacles. Large-
term regional planning process is clear: wind scale development zones should take into account
power developments typically reflect a wide range wind resources and existing and planned grid
of potentially conflicting attributes and interests, infrastructure. Where a large wind resource is
and thus require very careful consideration. Early, located in an area lacking sufficient transmission to
integrated, long-term planning for deployment bring electricity to market, transmission planning
of wind power and associated infrastructure will should be co-ordinated. Development zones must
help long-term wind deployment. Identifying also be allocated on an equitable basis with socio-
pre-screened zones that offer quicker permitting environmental requirements, as well as defence
to wind deployment will lighten the burden on (radar) and other industrial interests.

48 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Examples of effective national strategic planning for Agency and Crown Estate serve as the co-ordinating
the offshore sector exist across Europe (Denmark, authorities. In Denmark, the system operator
Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands is involved in selecting sites and initiating the
and Belgium). The Dutch government’s 2009 lease process. It then holds a competitive bid
National Water Plan includes 6 000 MW wind process to select a wind farm developer while
power development potential by 2020 alongside the system operator permits and constructs the
the ongoing development of fisheries, shipping, interconnection to the onshore grid and negotiates
sand extraction, oil and gas extraction, nature a power purchase agreement. This model is
conservation and coastal defences. The plan effective in that it includes interconnection support
designates areas in which permits for wind energy to facilitate financing the projects.
parks can be granted.
The UK government recognised the importance
Efforts to streamline permitting procedures face of spatial planning and the need to streamline
an inherent challenge in that a key aspect of many the consenting process and a created “one-stop
permitting procedures is to ensure that deployment shop” approach for permitting for its Round 2
takes into account diverse local needs. However, offshore tendering. The Crown Estate (which is the
if responsibility is divided among several agencies seabed owner and manager) charged successful
at different levels of government, permitting can applicants a one-time fee based on the spatial
be subject to delays and create uncertainty for area of their respective sites. Once plants are
developers and investors. A more holistic approach operational, owners of Round 2 projects will be
that identifies and integrates the various approvals required to make lease payments on the order of
required can effectively address any planning, 1% of gross power sales, including incentives. In
environmental or safety distance concerns during 2009, an offer was announced to extend site leases
wind project development. Standardised, more to 50 years, affording developers greater certainty
transparent permitting procedures reduce project when considering life-extension and repowering
uncertainty. of their projects. This move was also designed
to instil greater confidence in the supply chain.
For example, the US Department of the Interior For Round 3, initiated in 2008, the Crown Estate
(US DOI) and the FERC are now partnering to established a strategic spatial planning process
oversee deployment of wind, wave and tidal and identified nine zones prior to running the
power on the outer continental shelf. In Denmark tender process. Additionally, the UK government
and in the United Kingdom, offshore permitting implemented a new infrastructure planning process
procedures have been streamlined into a “one- for the permitting of offshore projects, providing an
stop-shop” system in which the Danish Energy improved and timely consenting regime.

Increased funding for RD&D

Support R&D and demonstrations Time frames

1. E stablish funding commitment levels for the next decade
Complete by 2015-20.
for wind energy R&D.
2. P
 rovide demonstration funding for innovative concepts that
Ongoing. Complete in 2020.
would not be pursued without extra support.

Achieving the technology development needed for research funding in OECD member countries
the roadmap targets will require increased funding for wind power has mostly fluctuated between
for RD&D. 1% and 2% of all energy R&D funding. Stimulus
programmes in the European Union and the United
Establishing clear financial support for RD&D States increased funding in 2009-2010. In 2011, the
sends a clear strong message that public and private figure stood at estimated 2.2%, equalling about
sectors are engaged for the long term. This helps USD 357 million (Figure 21).
attract more investors. For the last three decades,

Policy, finance, public acceptance and international collaboration: actions and time frame 49
 Figure 21: O
 ECD member country funding for wind energy R&D
and share of energy R&D
500 3.0%
450
2.5%
400
350
2.0%
2011 USD million

300
250 1.5%
200
1.0%
150
100
0.5%
50
0 0.0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
United States Spain Germany Denmark Japan Other IEA member countries Share of total RD&D

KEY POINT: public finance of wind energy R&D has been comparatively low against
investment in other energy technologies.

By contrast, the wind industry invested 5% of its Establishing large test sites is another key area for
income (about USD 4 billion) into R&D between public investment. Examples of ongoing work
2007 and 2010. But private companies tend to include the German offshore test field, Alpha Ventus,
privilege short-term R&D efforts that deliver which started operation in 2009 at sea depths of
more certain returns on investment. Long-term, 30 m to 40 m and distances of up to 40 km from
fundamental research is usually the role of the shore. New test facilities for large component
public sector and the primary focus of public R&D have been developed for blades in Boston (United
initiatives. Increased co-ordination among the full States) and Bremerhaven (Germany), and are under
community to support R&D and demonstration development for drive trains in Charleston (United
efforts, particularly in offshore wind, could bring States) and Narec (United Kingdom).
additional benefits.

Given the substantial role that wind power is

expected to play in achieving climate change
International collaboration:
and energy goals, the strong consensus view of actions and time frame
the roadmap participants is that wind’s portion
of funding for all energy sources should be Efforts to spread deployment of wind and
increased substantially, to two to five times the other clean energy technologies worldwide will
current funding levels. Wind energy R&D should contribute to the effective use of the best resources
be prioritised and allocated a dedicated budget and will have a global benefit in terms of GHG
amount, to ensure its full potential can be met. emissions abatement. International collaboration
can help more countries develop their use of
renewable sources and decrease their dependence
on fossil fuels.

50 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

Increase international collaboration Time frames
1. E xpand international RD&D collaboration, making best use
Continue over 2013-50 period.
of national competencies.
2. B
 uild capacity in emerging economies by developing new mechanisms
to encourage technology exchange and sharing Continue over 2013-50 period.
of best practice for wind deployment.
3. A
 ssess and express the value of wind energy in economic development,
Continue over 2013-50 period.
poverty alleviation and efficient use of fresh water resources.

Expanding international RD&D collaboration begin to approach its potential. By 2050, according
is an important means of ensuring greater co- to the 2DS, more than half of cumulative global
ordination among national approaches to wind investment in new capacity will have taken place in
energy RD&D. It could help to ensure that key non-OECD countries. In China alone, building the
aspects are addressed according to areas of national 611 GW of installed capacity envisaged in the 2DS
expertise, taking advantage of existing RD&D and would at today’s prices cost around USD 690 billion
testing activities and infrastructure. Long-term by 2030 and USD 1.5 trillion by 2050.
harmonisation of wind energy research agendas
would also be beneficial. Rapid economic growth, limited energy supply and
abundant conventional resources are factors that
One example of international collaboration is cause key countries to turn first to conventional
the Wind IA, which is one of 42 such agreements energy supply. Without sufficient incentive to do
covering the complete spectrum of energy otherwise, many emerging economies are likely
technology development. More than 20 countries to pursue a carbon-intensive development path
participate in the Wind IA: together, their national (UNEP, 2009). Bilateral and multilateral efforts, such
experts have developed a coherent research as the Sino-US Co-operation in Clean Energy, are
programme including offshore, cost of energy, underway to address this challenge.
social acceptance, wind modelling, aerodynamics
and wind integration.12 This may provide the focus Governments of OECD member countries are
for greater collaboration among OECD and non- encouraged to assist developing economies
OECD countries. in the early deployment of renewable energy.
The exchange of best practice in terms of
In addition, in Europe, the Wind Energy Technology wind technology, system integration, support
Platform (TPWind) builds collaboration among mechanisms, environmental protection, approaches
industry and public sector participants; it is one to mitigating water stress, and the dismantling of
of a range of technology platforms with cross- deployment barriers are important areas. Dynamic
cutting activities established in partnership with mechanisms will be required to achieve successful
the European Commission. TPWind has developed technology and information transfer. Poorer
a research agenda and market deployment strategy and more slowly developing economies (such as
up to 2030, which provides a focus for the European many in Africa) are lagging behind more quickly
Union and national financing initiatives. In the industrialising nations; specific, tailored actions will
offshore sector, Norway joined the German-Danish- be necessary.
Swedish Co-operation Agreement with specific
focus on offshore wind energy RD&D. The value of wind energy for reasons in addition
to climate protection should be emphasised – even
China has been participating for several years in when based on developed economies’ experience.
international collaboration on standards, testing Benefits related to innovation, employment, fresh
and certification of wind power plants, which led water conservation and environmental protection
to a revision of the Chinese grid code in 2012 and should be accurately quantified and expressed
development of a testing centre for wind turbines. to developing economy partners, particularly in
terms of wind energy’s ability to contribute towards
The need to build capacity in emerging economies
the fundamental benefits of energy provision and
cannot be overstated. Strong wind resources exist
poverty alleviation.
in many countries where deployment has yet to

12. S
 ee www.ieawind.org.

Policy, finance, public acceptance and international collaboration: actions and time frame 51
 Roadmap action plan and next steps
The main milestones to achieve the target of 15% to resistance and lack of co-ordination among
18% global electricity from wind power in 2050 are: different authorities (e.g. environment, building,
traffic, defence).
z S
 timulate cost reductions to achieve cost
competitiveness with new conventional power z L aunch work on regional land-use and marine
production (including carbon prices) by 2020 for spatial planning, taking into account wind power
onshore and by 2030 for offshore wind power. and its transmission needs. Harmonise and
This means increasing funding allocation for wind streamline permitting practices.
energy RD&D between two- and five-fold by 2020. z Identify and provide a suitable level of public
z R
 educe uncertainty of resource assessment to 3% funding for wind energy R&D, proportionate to
of projected output of wind power plants and the cost reduction targets and potential of the
increase technology reliability to 95% by 2020 technology in terms of electricity production and
also for offshore. CO2 abatement targets.

z B
 y 2020: publish and encourage broad use of z E nable increasing international R&D collaboration
best practice guidelines for project development, to make best use of national competencies.
system integration and community engagement. z P
 rovide incentives for accelerated construction
z B
 y 2020: include wind power in long-term of transmission capacity to link wind energy
regional planning with clear ways to address resources to demand centres; identify agencies to
deployment barriers from transmission and safety lead large-scale, multi-jurisdictional transmission
distances to built environment. projects together with regulators and system
operators.
z B
 y 2020: increase cost competitiveness by setting
a price on emissions through an emissions z F or offshore deployment, make available sufficient
trading system, with careful design to ensure and suitably equipped large harbour space.
the emissions price is meaningful (fully cost- z W
 ork with R&D funding organisations to establish
reflective) and stable. the technology push (e.g. compulsory reporting
when getting subsidies) needed to establish
public databases (O&M and wind resources).
Near-term actions for z L aunch maritime spatial planning that includes
stakeholders areas for offshore wind energy deployment and
develop appropriate offshore planning regimes.
The most immediate actions are listed below by
lead actors. Wind industry includes turbine and component
manufacturers, developers of wind plants and
Governments include policy makers at associated infrastructure, with strong collaboration
international, national, regional and local levels. with the research sector. One main objective is to
Their underlying roles are to: remove deployment lower the lifecycle cost of energy production and
barriers; establish frameworks that promote close reduce the uncertainties of wind output estimates
collaboration between the wind industry and the and reliability.
wider power sector; and encourage private sector
Wind industry actions on R&D for short-term results
investment alongside increased public investment.
by 2015 should focus on:
Governments should take the lead on the z w
 ind characteristics: develop a publicly available
following actions: database of onshore and offshore wind resources
z S
 et or update long-term targets for wind energy and environmental conditions; develop and
deployment, including short-term milestones. implement international standards for wind
resource assessment and siting; further develop
z E nsure a stable, predictable financing remote sensing technology; and develop short-
environment. Where market arrangements term forecast models, for use in power system
and cost competitiveness do not provide operation (working together with system
sufficient incentive for investors, make sure that operators);
predictable, long-term support mechanisms exist.
z w
 ind turbine technology: build a shared database
z A
 ddress existing or potential barriers to of offshore operating experiences; develop
deployment from land-use restrictions, public dedicated designs for different site conditions;

52 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

 for offshore deployment, make available z e
 xploit power system flexibility to increase the
sufficient purpose-designed vessels and improve value of RES;
installation strategies;
z s upport standards development to ensure
z w
 ork with funding agencies to establish targeted government-funded R&D is translated into
R&D support programmes, then launch long- industry best practice.
term programmes for new materials; improve
design tools; and increase knowledge of offshore,
complex terrain and icing climates, aerodynamics, Implementation
and of offshore turbine and foundation designs.
The implementation of this roadmap could take
Power system actors include transmission place through national roadmaps, targets, subsidies
companies, system operators and independent and R&D efforts. Based on its energy and industrial
electricity sector regulators as established by policies, a country could develop a set of relevant
governments, as well as vertically integrated utilities actions. To facilitate this process at national levels,
(where they exist). Their key role is to invest in the IEA is also publishing a How2Guide for the
transmission infrastructure needed to connect wind development of wind roadmaps, which includes
power (and other generators) and move electricity information and guidance related to:
to load centres. They also play a role in enabling
z resource availability;
physical power markets to evolve in a manner that
cost-effectively reduces the impact of variability and z technology status and costs;
increases the value of wind power while ensuring
z policy costs and effectiveness;
security of supply.
z barriers that would need to be addressed;
Power system actors should focus their short-term
efforts on the following areas: z stakeholder engagement and public acceptability.

z d
 evelop wide-area transmission plans that Ultimately, international collaboration will be
support interconnection, anticipating wind important and can enhance the success of national
power deployment and the linking of regional efforts. This roadmap update identifies approaches
power markets, to ensure security of supply; and specific tasks regarding wind energy research,
development, demonstration and deployment,
z e
 stablish mechanisms for cost recovery and
financing, planning, grid integration, legal and
allocation from new transmission build-outs for
regulatory framework development, public
wind-rich areas, in case transmission costs are not
engagement, and international collaboration. It
covered by customers;
also updates regional projections for wind energy
z w
 here not already available, implement grid deployment from 2010 to 2050 based on ETP 2012.
codes that ensure open access to transmission Finally, this roadmap details actions and milestones to
networks for wind power plants; collaborate with aid policy makers, industry and power system actors
neighbouring areas to enhance balancing; in their efforts to successfully implement wind energy.
z c ontinue to advance progress on the evolution of
The wind roadmap is meant to be a process, one that
market design and system operating practices to
evolves to take into account new developments from
enable integration of large shares of renewable
demonstration projects, policies and international
energy;
collaborative efforts. The roadmap has been
z improve wind forecasting and include online data designed with milestones that the international
in control rooms of system operators; community can use to ensure that wind energy
development efforts are on track to achieve the GHG
z w
 ork for offshore grid improvements such as
emissions reductions required by 2050. As such,
meshed grids connecting several countries
the IEA, together with government, industry and
and combining offshore connections with
non-governmental organisation (NGO) stakeholders
interconnectors where regionally and socio-
will report regularly on the progress that has been
economically reasonable;
achieved toward this roadmap’s vision. For more
z d
 evelop methods to assess the need for additional information about the wind roadmap inputs and
power system flexibility; carry out grid studies to implementation, visit www.iea.org/roadmaps.
examine costs and benefits of high shares of wind
power;

Roadmap action plan and next steps 53

 Abbreviations and acronyms
2DS 2°C Scenario GWEC Global Wind Energy Council
6 DS 6°C Scenario hiRen high renewables (Scenario)
AC alternative current HVDC high-voltage direct current
ACER Agency for the Co-operation of Energy IA implementing agreement
Regulators IEA International Energy Agency
ARRA American recovery and reinvestment Act IFI international financial institution
CCS carbon capture and storage Irena International Renewable Energy Agency
CDM Clean Development Mechanism ISO independent system operator
CEM Clean Energy Ministerial JRC Joint Research Centre
CER certified emission reduction kW kilowatt
CFD computational fluid dynamics kWh kilowatt hour
CO2 carbon dioxide LCD liquid-crystal display
CPI Climate Policy Initiative LCOE levelised cost of electricity
CSP concentrating solar power Lidar light and radar, or light detection
CSP current source converter and ranging
CTF Clean Technology Fund MW megawatt (1 thousand kW)
DC direct current MWh megawatt hour (1 thousand kWh)
EDF Électricité de France NABEG National Grid Expansion Acceleration Act
EH Euler Hermes (Germany)

EKF Eksport Kredit Fonden (Denmark) NGO non-governmental organisation

EIA environmental impact assessment NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory

(United States)
EIB European Investment Bank
NSCOGI North Sea Countries’ Offshore
ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission Grid Initiative
System Operators for Electricity
OECD Organisation for Economic
ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas Co-operation and Development
ETP Energy Technology Perspectives O&M operation and maintenance
EU European Union PPA power purchase agreement
EUR euro PPP public-private partnership
EWEA European Wind Energy Association PUC Public Utility Commission
EWI European Wind Initiative PV photovoltaic
FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission R&D research and development
(United States)
RD&D research, development and
FID final investment decision demonstration
FiT feed-in tariff REN21 Renewable Energy Network for
FiP feed-in premium the 21st Century
G8 Group of Eight REO rare earth oxide
GBP Great Britain pound RES renewable energy source
GHG greenhouse gas(es) RPS renewable energy portfolio standard
Gt gigatonnes Sodar sonic detection and ranging
GW gigawatt (1 million kW) T&D transmission and distribution
GWh gigawatt hour (1 million kWh)

54 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

TIMES The Integrated MARKAL (Marketing and US United States (of America)
Allocation Model)-EFOM (energy flow
USGS United States Geological Survey
optimisation model) System.
USD United States dollar
TSO transmission system operator
TWh terawatthour (1 billion KWh) US DOE United States Department of Energy

TYNDP Ten-Year Network Development Plan US DOI United States Department of Interior

UK United Kingdom VSC voltage source converter

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WACC weighted average cost of capital

Abbreviations and acronyms 55

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56 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

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58 Technology Roadmap  Wind energy

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