PEMBAHASAN TUGAS MANDIRI

Baron (2014)
3.1. A computer virus is trying to corrupt two files. The first file will be corrupted with
probability 0.4. Independently of it, the second file will be corrupted with probability 0.3.
(a) Compute the probability mass function (pmf) of X, the number of corrupted files.
(b) Draw a graph of its cumulative distribution function (cdf).
3.2. Every day, the number of network blackouts has a distribution (probability mass function)
x 0 1 2
P(x) 0.7 0.2 0.1
A small internet trading company estimates that each network blackout results in a $500 loss.
Compute expectation and variance of this company’s daily lose due to blackouts.
3.3. There is one error in one of five blocks of program. To find the error, we test three
randomly selected blocks. Let X be the number of errors in these three blocks. Compute E(X)
and Var(X).
 PEMBAHASAN TUGAS KELOMPOK
Montgomery & Runger (2003)
Exercise 3.55
For each scenario described below, state whether or not the binomial distribution is reasonable
model for the random variable and why. State any assumptions you make.
(a) A production process produces thousands of temperature transducers. Let X denote the
number of nonconforming transducers in a sample of size 30 selected at random from
the process.
Jawab :
BINOMIAL dengan asumsi kejadian conform atau nonconform antar temperature
transducers saling bebas dengan peluang yang sama.

(b) From a batch of 50 temperature transducers, a sample of size 30 is selected without

(c) Four identical electronic components are wired to a controller that can switch from a
failed component to one of the remaining spares. Let X denote the number of
components that have failed after a specified period of operation.
Jawab :
BUKAN BINOMIAL karena banyaknya percobaan tidak diketahui secara pasti)

(d) Let X denote the number of accidents that occur along the federal highways in Arizona
during a one-month period.
Jawab :
BUKAN BINOMIAL, n tidak pasti dan peluang terjadinya kejadian tidak diketahui)

(e) Let X denote the number of correct answers by a student taking a multiple choice exam
in which a student can eliminate some of the choices as being incorrect in some
questions and all of the incorrect choices in other questions.
Jawab :
BUKAN BINOMIAL karena peluang jawaban benar tidak lah sama untuk semua
pertanyaan)
(f) Defects occur randomly over the surface of a semiconductor chip. However, only 80%
of defects can be found by testing. A sample of 40 chips with one defect each is tested.
Let X denote the number of chips in which the test finds s defect.
Jawab :
BINOMIAL, n diketahui = 40, output setip percobaan ada 2 macam yaitu finding a
defect or not a defect, the probability of detecting a defective chips by testng is fixed
for all chips)
(g) Reconsider the situation in part (f). Now, suppose the sample of 40 chips consists of
chips with 1 and with 0 defects.
Jawab :
BUKAN BINOMIAL karena peluang menemukan yang defect tidaklah kontsan

(h) A filling operation attempts to fill detergent packages to the advertised weight. Let X
denote the number of detergent packages that are underfilled.
Jawab :
BINOMIAL jika antar percobaan saling bebas dan peluang underfilled sama

(i) Errors in a digital communication channel occur in bursts that affect several consecutive
bits. Let X denote the number of bits in error in a transmission of 100,000 bits.
Jawab :
BUKAN BINOMIAL karena antar percobaan tidak saling bebas (the burst affecting the
consecutive bits)

(j) Let X denote the number of surface flaws in a large coil of galvanized steel.
Jawab :
BUKAN BINOMIAL karena banyaknya percobaan tidak diketahui secara pasti
Horgan (2008)
Exercise 10.1 nomor 1 dan 3
1. An industrial process manufactures components with a 10% defective rate. Each day
the process is subjected to a quality control inspection ; products are inspected
sequentially until the first defective is obtained.
(a) What is the probability that the first defective will occur in one of the first three
components inspected?
(b) What is the probability that more than three components will be inspected before a
defective is found?
(c) If three products have been inspected withput finding a defective, what is the
probability that the next three inspections will be free of defectives?
(d) What is the number of inspections expected until the first defective?
3. The probability of a successful optical alignment in an assembly of an optical data
storage product is 0.9.
(a) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires exactly four
trials?
(b) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires at most four
trials?
(c) What is the probability that the first successful alignment requires at least four
trials?
(d) What is the average number of trials necessary to obtain the first successful
alignment?
Exercise 11.1 nomor 8

8. With a binomial distribution with n = 20 and p = 0.4 , write down the mean and variance.
Use R to simulate this 100 times, obtain the average number of defectives in the 100 batches,
and satisfy yourself that it is near the true mean. Obtain also the variance of the number of
defectives in the 100 batches and compare it to the theoritical variance.
Jawab :
E(X) = np = 20 x 0.4 = 8
Var(X) = npq = 20 x 0.4 x 0.6 = 4.8
SIMULASI

Nilai tengah peubah acak yang diperoleh dengan simulasi adalah 8.02, dimana nilai tersebut
tidak terlalu berbeda dengan hasil perhitungan nilai tengah secara teoritis yaitu sebesar 8.
Ragam peubah acak yang diperoleh dengan simulasi adalah 4.383434 dimana nilai tersebut
jauh lebih kecil daripada ragam yang diperoleh dengan hasil perhitungan secara teoritis yaitu
sebesar 4.8. Hal ini disebabkan karena banyaknya simulasi yang dilakukan hanya 100 kali,
untuk hasil yang lebih akurat, banyaknya simulasi perlu dinaikkan .