Forecast Summary November 2010
Forecast Summary November 2010
Highlights
$399 Million Surplus in FY 2010-11, $6.2 Billion Shortfall in FY 2012-13
A general fund balance of $399 million is now projected for the close of the 2010-
11 biennium. This improvement in the state’s short-term financial outlook comes
entirely from expenditure savings, including the six-month extension of a higher
federal matching rate for Medical Assistance. The revenue outlook has deteriorated
slightly. FY 2010-11 revenues are now projected to be $44 million less than end-
of-session estimates.
FY 2012-13 revenues are now forecast to total $32.004 billion and biennial
spending is projected to be $38.591 billion. The gap in forecast revenues and
expenditures is reduced by the $399 million balance now expected at the close of
FY 2011, leaving a projected budget shortfall for the 2012-13 biennium of $6.188
billion - $593 million worse than previous estimates.
Revenue-Expenditure Gap Drives Longer Term Budget Outlook
The FY 2012-13 budget picture remains similar to that at the end-of-session. While
revenues for FY 2012-13 are forecast to grow by $1.510 billion (5.0 percent) over
FY 2010-11, expenditures are projected to grow by $8.324 billion (27.5 percent).
The unusually high expenditure growth rate stems primarily from actions that
yielded one-time savings in FY 2010-11, such as federal stimulus aid and K-12
school payment shifts. These short-term federal subsidies and one-time actions
allowed the state to balance its 2010-11 budget without significantly reducing
overall spending commitments for 2012-13 and beyond. This causes 2012-13
spending to increase dramatically over the current biennium. Absent significant
changes, the current level of spending, matched against revenue growth
permanently lost during the recession, will likely create significant budget gaps
well beyond FY 2012-13.
Slow Growth Economic Recovery Expected to Continue
The economy’s recovery from the Great Recession has been slower than expected
and forecasts for economic growth in 2011 and 2012 have been scaled back. Back-
to-back recessions are not anticipated, but an extended period of sub-par growth
continues to be very likely. Global Insight’s November baseline calls for real GDP
growth of 2.5 percent in FY 2011, and 2.7 percent over the 2012-13 biennium. In
February, growth rates of 2.8 percent and 3.5 percent were anticipated.
November 2010 Minnesota Financial Report
BUDGET SUMMARY
$399 Million Surplus Projected for FY 2010-11, $6.188 Billion Budget Shortfall Now
Forecast for FY 2012-13
This forecast improves the state’s budget outlook for the current biennium. But, the short-
term good news quickly gives way to increased shortfalls in the longer term outlook. The
balance for FY 2010-11 has increased from the $6 million projected in May to $399
million. By October, federal action had provided an estimated $231 million for a six-
month extension of a higher federal matching rate for Medical Assistance (the state’s
Medicaid program) while the October legislative session authorized $38 million for
disaster relief. Forecast changes now contribute an additional $202 million, with FY
2010-11 projected spending $255 million lower, offset by a $44 million reduction in
revenues.
While the short-term outlook has improved slightly, the outlook for the 2012-13
biennium has worsened. Expected revenues are less than previously projected, and that
revenue decline is only partially offset by lower forecast spending.
Structural Gap
(excluding FY 2010-11 Balance) --- ($6,587)
Normally any forecast balance would be allocated by statutory requirements to restore the
general fund cash flow account and the budget reserve. However, this provision was
suspended the October special legislative session because federal law prohibits any state
savings resulting from the higher Medicaid matching rate from contributing directly or
indirectly to state reserves. Separately, $8.6 million from the workers’ compensation
assigned risk plan was deposited in the budget reserve, a surplus directed to the reserve
by current statutes.
The $399 million FY 2010-11 balance will carry forward into FY 2012-13 and partially
offset a $6.587 billion revenue-expenditure gap now projected for next biennium, leaving
a $6.188 billion prospective budgetary shortfall.
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Minnesota Financial Report November 2010
End of November $
Session Forecast Difference
Revenues
Income tax 14,080 13,766 (314)
Corporate 1,432 1,631 199
Sales Tax 8,654 8,709 55
Other Taxes 3,860 3,911 51
Non-Tax Revenues 1,597 1,570 (27)
Transfers & Other 914 906 (8)
Total Revenues $30,537 $30,493 ($44)
Spending
K-12 Education 11,390 11,438 48
Health & Human Services 8,852 8,669 (183)
Debt Service 955 832 (123)
All Other 9,324 9,327 3
Total Spending $30,521 $30,266 ($255)
The forecast for K-12 education spending increased $48 million. The increase results
primarily from a $58 million reduction in savings for the property tax recognition shift.
Small increases occur in the general education formula, but are more than offset by
reductions in the forecast for Q-Comp and other aid programs resulting in a net $10
million reduction in expected aid payments without the impact of shifts.
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November 2010 Minnesota Financial Report
Tax revenues for the FY 2012-13 biennium are forecast to be $1.976 billion above
amounts expected in the current biennium. General fund receipts from non-tax revenues
and transfers from other funds however, are expected to be well below amounts received
in the 2010-11 biennium mainly due one-time resources transferred to the general fund as
part of actions taken to balance the budget.
Projected current law spending for the biennium is $8.324 billion above forecast amounts
for FY 2010-11. If significant one-time impacts are excluded, approximately $2.0 billion
of the growth represents forecast program growth. Growth in human services programs
accounts for about 70 percent of underlying forecast growth, reflecting increasing health
care costs, growth in enrollments, and program changes like the contingent early
expansion of medical assistance. Growth in K-12 spending accounts for a significant
portion of the remainder, due primarily to slightly higher pupil unit growth and changing
demographics of student populations.
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Minnesota Financial Report November 2010
By any standard, the projected 27.5 percent growth in current law spending is unusually
large. Three-quarters, about $6.3 billion, of the $8.3 billion of the growth shown in
projected FY 2012-13 spending is from one-time federal stimulus resources, education
payment shifts, and one-time budget actions that created general fund savings in FY
2010-11 that do not continue into the next biennium.
$2.3 billion in federal stimulus funding used to reduce general fund spending in
FY 2010-11; including $1.456 billion from a higher federal matching rate for
Medical Assistance (FMAP) and $816 million state fiscal stabilization funding.
$1.9 billion of K-12 education payment shifts that reduced FY 2010-11 spending
$1.4 billion increase in FY 2012 spending for K-12 payment shift buyback
required in current law
$660 million in one-time reductions made in FY 2010-11. These occur primarily
in higher education, local aids and credits, and human services’ programs.
Revenue growth is distorted in a similar, but less significant manner. FY 2010-11 budget
actions delayed $236 million in sales and corporate refunds in FY 2011 until FY 2012,
effectively reducing tax revenue growth shown for the biennium. Legislative action also
resulted in $340 million of transfers from other state funds to the general fund in FY
2010-11. These transfers do not recur in FY 2012-13, also effectively reducing the total
revenue growth shown for the biennium.
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November 2010 Minnesota Financial Report
Individual income tax receipts showed the largest dollar decline from the planning
estimates, down $471 million or 2.9 percent. Corporate income taxes had the largest
percentage decline, off 10.7 percent or $185 million. Sales tax receipts are now forecast
to fall short of prior planning estimates by $119 million or 1.3 percent.
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Minnesota Financial Report November 2010
Forecast for FY 2012-13 Expenditures Down $108 Million from End-of-session Estimates
Projected spending in FY 2012-13 is $108 million (0.2 percent) below end-of-special
session estimates. A $111 million decrease in estimated health and human services
spending is the primary source of the savings. Small overall adjustments to enrollment
growth and average cost for Medical Assistance programs account for the decrease from
prior forecasts.
The forecast for K-12 education spending increases $26 million from previous estimates.
The increase results primarily from a $41 million reduction in savings from the property
tax recognition shift, due to a downward revision in expected property tax levies. Small
increases occur in the general education formula payments, but this is more than offset by
reductions in Q-Comp and other aids, resulting in a net $15 million reduction in forecast
aid payments exclusive of the impact of shifts.
Other forecast savings include a small, $12 million reduction in debt service estimates.
Lower interest rates on new bond issues, offset by slightly higher assumptions on the size
of capital budgets and bond sales, result in the savings.
End of November $
Session Forecast Difference
K-12 Education $15,622 $15,648 $26
Higher Education 2,917 2,917 0
Health & Human Services 12,018 11,907 (111)
Debt Service 1,153 1,141 (12)
All Other 6,989 6,978 (11)
Total Spending $38,699 $38,591 ($108)
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November 2010 Minnesota Financial Report
This Economic Recovery Has Been Even Slower than Previously Forecast
The 2007-09 recession is over. In September the National Bureau of Economic Research
made it official declaring that the economy turned up again in June, 2009. But, real GDP
growth over the past 16 months has been unusually slow for quarters immediately
following a recession, and U.S. employment growth has been very disappointing.
Forecasters who in February expected a robust, V-shaped recovery have been proven
overly optimistic, but even those who were more pessimistic have been surprised by how
slowly the economy has moved to right itself. February’s consensus forecast of a long
slow recovery has been replaced with one calling for an even slower, and even more
extended recovery.
February’s baseline forecast from Global Insight Inc. (GII), Minnesota’s national macro-
economic consultant, had real GDP reaching its pre-recession high in the late spring of
2010 but U.S. payroll employment was expected to remain below its earlier high for
almost until early 2013. At that time the unemployment rate would still be at the
uncomfortably high 8 percent level. GII’s November baseline is slightly more
pessimistic, with quarterly growth rates for every quarter from the start of fiscal 2011
through the end of fiscal 2013 below February’s estimates. Reductions on the forecast are
not large when viewed on an individual basis, but their cumulative impact is significant.
February’s baseline showed real GDP growth of 10 percent between the end of the 2010
fiscal year and the end of fiscal 2013. In GII’s November baseline real GDP growth over
those three fiscal years is only 8.0 percent. Real GDP is now not expected to reach its
pre-recession high until early 2011.
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Minnesota Financial Report November 2010
Global Insight does expects slightly slower real GDP growth over the 2011 – 2013
forecast horizon than the Blue Chip Consensus. November’s baseline is assigned a
probability of 65 percent. A more optimistic scenario with a considerably more rapid
recovery is assigned a probability of 15 percent, while GII assigns a scenario with a
recession beginning in early 2011 a probability of 20 percent.
Minnesota’s Recovery Appears to be Stronger Than the U.S. Average
The Great Recession had a devastating impact on employment. Nationally almost 8.4
million jobs were lost between December of 2007 and December 2009, and the
unemployment rate climbed to as high as 10.1 percent. There has been job growth in
2010, but the numbers have has been disappointing and the unemployment rate appears to
have settled in at 9.6 percent. Global Insight now believes that U.S. employment will not
reach its pre-recession high until late 2013 and that the unemployment rate will exceed 8
percent until 2014.
Minnesota’s job market also has suffered through a very difficult three years. But, it has
not weakened by as much as the national averages. Minnesota lost 157,000 jobs between
the start of the recession in December 2007 and September, 2009 when employment in
the state reached its low. Since then the recovery appears to be progressing faster here
than nationally. We have added 44,000 jobs in the last year and nearly 55,000 since
September’s low.
Employment in Minnesota’s leisure and hospitality sector grew the most, up nearly
13,000 jobs from year earlier levels. Professional and business services (which includes
temporary employment services), health services, and manufacturing sectors also showed
significant growth with employment levels in each of those sectors at least 8,800 above
their October 2009 levels. Construction employment, down more than 6,000 and local
government employment, down 4,000 continued to decline. Minnesota’s current
unemployment rate is 7.1 percent, 2.5 percent less than the national average.
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November 2010 Minnesota Financial Report
This report provides the first revenue and expenditure planning estimates for the 2014-15
biennium. The planning estimates provide a necessary framework against which the
potential impact of FY 2012-13 budget decisions can be judged. Projected revenues for
FY 2014-15 are based on long-term trends of economic growth and personal income
growth not a specific short-term forecast.
Expenditure planning estimates do not include spending changes beyond those in current
law. Current law projections have been adjusted only to reflect enrollment and caseload
growth in entitlement programs and areas where specific statutory formulae exist.
Expenditure estimates are also not adjusted for general inflation so there may be spending
pressures beyond those reflected.
The planning estimates shown above display projected revenues compared to projected
spending. The differences highlight the “structural” gap – how much more is being spent
than collected. Changes in the economic outlook, as well as changes to the budget, will
materially affect the planning estimates for the 2014-15 biennium.
Spending projections for FY 2012-13 and FY 2014-15 do not include estimated inflation.
Inflation, based on the CPI, is forecast to be 1.7 and 2.0 percent for FY 2012 and FY
2013 respectively. At these levels, the cost of inflation would be $1.039 billion in the
next biennium.
For FY 2014-15 inflation is expected to average slightly over 2.1 percent per year.
Applying forecast inflation to the total of current law projected spending base over the
four-year horizon would add about $2.8 billion to FY 2014-15 spending.
A complete version of this forecast can be found at the Minnesota Management & Budget’s World Wide Web site at
http://www.mmb.state.mn.us/. This document is available in alternate format.
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Minnesota Financial Report November 2010
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November 2010 Minnesota Financial Report
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Minnesota Financial Report November 2010
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