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DCF Intrinsic Value Calculator

The document provides a discounted cash flow (DCF) intrinsic value calculator for evaluating the stock of Union Pacific (UNP). It includes projected free cash flows for UNP over the next 10 years along with assumptions for terminal growth rates and discount rates to calculate an intrinsic value per share of $127.

Uploaded by

Ervin Khouw
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
202 views

DCF Intrinsic Value Calculator

The document provides a discounted cash flow (DCF) intrinsic value calculator for evaluating the stock of Union Pacific (UNP). It includes projected free cash flows for UNP over the next 10 years along with assumptions for terminal growth rates and discount rates to calculate an intrinsic value per share of $127.

Uploaded by

Ervin Khouw
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Copyright 2017.

The Warren Buffett Spreadsheet

Manual input next to yellow cells

DCF Intrinsic Value Calculator

Company: UNP
Date: 12/5/2017
Current stock price: 130

Year: 1 2
Free cash flow 160 902

Free cash flow 5 year CAGR 5%

Free cash flow 10 y average 2314


Free cash flow 5 y average 3451
Free cash flow 3 y average 3630

Required discount rate %: 11%


Required margin of safety % : 30%

Shares outstanding (TTM) 798


Total equity 19151

3-stage DCF intrinsic value calculator


2 Stage DCF valuation

5y average free cash flow: 3451

Years: 1-3 4-7


Growth Rate: 15% 12%

Terminal Growth Rate: 2% Discount Rate:

Shares Outstanding: 798 MOS:

Year Flows Growth


1 3,969 15%
2 4,564 15%
3 5,249 15%
4 5,879 12%
5 6,584 12%
6 7,374 12%
7 8,259 12%
8 9,052 10%
9 9,921 10%
10 10,873 10%

Terminal Year 11091


PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: 38454
Terminal Value: 62552
Total PV of Cash Flows: 101006
Number of Shares: 798
Intrinsic Value (IV): 127

Margin of safety -3%


Annual Expected return 0%
Buyprice 89
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TTM
750 1623 2612 2149 3327 3039 2694 4020 4176

ulator
Change?

8-10 Change?
10% 15%

11%

30%

Value
3,576
3,704
3,838
3,872
3,907
3,943
3,978
3,928
3,878
3,829
CAGR
39%

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